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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle
Please join us tonight for drinks, conversation, and dinner at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but a few folks show up earlier for dinner.


Can’t make it tonight? The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night as well. And Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets this Thursday at the Hub Restaurant at 7:00pm.

With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

Gov. race ranked as most competitive in the nation

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For the third consecutive month, Politico has ranked the 2012 Washington gubernatorial race as the most competitive gubernatorial race in the country.

The PI‘s Chris Grygiel comments:

Between them, McKenna and Inslee are expected to raise more than $20 million. And that’s not counting the many millions more outside interest groups will pour into the Evergreen State race.

Many millions in out-of-state money pouring into the state? Huh.

Chris must be assuming that Sen. Cantwell will face some serious competition….

Dunn’s “Let’s keep it under the radar” strategy

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By all accounts Reagan Dunn is a very pleasant guy. Apparently, he hasn’t been jaded by the trappings of a man whose wardrobe requires a closet the size of a modest haberdasher’s shop.

I’ve also heard—from sources beyond Goldy—that Reagan Dunn is lazy.

So I wasn’t completely surprised to learn that Dunn’s ideal strategy to get elected Attorney General is to hope Democrats don’t notice there’s an election. He is hoping for a quiet election in which Democrats don’t feel threatened.

(It kind of reminds me of Luke Esser’s “Democrats are lazy” voter suppression strategy. Except that Esser was writing humor for a college newspaper.)

Dunn “big idea” is to give Cantwell a free ride to reelection, so that he doesn’t have to worry about parties dumping money into her race, causing voters to notice his:

Dunn’s remembering what happened in last year’s hard fought contest between U.S. Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., and Republican Dino Rossi. A late multi-million dollar push for voters funded by Democrats secured Murray’s victory while boosting vote totals of Democratic candidates farther down the ballot.

“That really hurt Republicans,” Dunn said. “So on (this Senate) race my belief is we don’t put anybody up. Make it a nominal challenge. Keep the national Democratic fundraising apparatus out of the state and don’t give them another reason to bring (President) Barack Obama here to further drive up turnout.”

Shorter Dunn: “I can, maybe, win if we keep the election low profile enough.” Goddamn, is that lazy!

It’s also sloppy thinking. It’s intellectual laziness to presume similar voter motivation for the 2010 and the 2012 elections. Twenty-ten was an off-year election with a senatorial race at the top of the ballot. The 2012 ballot will have a presidential election as well as a high-profile gubernatorial race in addition to the senatorial race. In other words, it’s going to be an election with a big turnout—with or without a strong challenger for Cantwell.

And pinning Rossi’s loss on out-of-state money seems simplistic (and lazy). In 2010 Murray did have a big advantage in out-of-state donors, as you would expect for an 18 year (at the time) Senate incumbent. But Rossi “took in” more money via independent groups:

Between them, Murray and Rossi raised more than $22 million. Murray, a three-term incumbent, brought in $15.3 million and Rossi – who got a late fund raising start – amassed $7.3 million, according to OpenSecrets.org. Outside groups, recognizing the Washington Senate seat was key to which party controlled upper chamber, also spent big. Total spending by independent groups topped $19 million, third-most in the country, according to campaign-finance watchdogs. Almost 60 percent of that money went to help Rossi.

A less lazy analysis would recognize that the big difference was between the candidates: a popular, proactive incumbent who had risen to the 4th most powerful position in the Senate compared to an angry real estate salesman who entered the race late and reluctantly, and never really had his heart into it. Oh…and there was that “D” next to Murray’s name. That helped, too.

Even his own party Chairman, Kirby Wilbur, doesn’t buy Dunn’s analysis:

Given the anti-incumbent fervor, an aggressive challenge of Cantwell by an energetic candidate could produce a Scott Brown-like upset. Even a loss delivers the benefit of making Cantwell spend her political dough on getting re-elected and not other campaigns like Democratic candidate for governor, Jay Inslee.

Enrollees in this school theorize turnout will be huge in 2012 regardless because of the presidential election. Plus battles for congressional seats — including a new one — mean Democrats and Republicans and an array of independent groups will be slugging it out whether the Senate race is in play or not.

Except for the “Scott Brown-like upset,” which is utter fantasy, Wilbur’s analysis is spot on.

So, if you ask me, prospects are looking good for Dunn’s opponent, Democrat Bob Ferguson. Again, the race will be determined by the candidates.

Reagan Dunn can’t just click his heals three times to give Cantwell a free pass in exchange for an easy race. The 2012 election is going to be huge no matter what happens in the Cantwell race. Whoever wins the AG race is going to do so by working his ass off doing retail politics, non-stop fundraising, and, dare I say it, baby kissing. We’re talking hard work.

Call me a skeptic, but I don’t see a work-shy Reagan Dunn “getting into” any of these tasks.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Tool Time: Gays cause earthquake claims a nutcase Rabbi.

Dave Letterman does Rachel Maddow.

Frank McCourt (Los Angeles Dodgers owner) is Worst Person in the World.

Ed with more Psychotalk from The Donald.

Thom: Why 60% of Congress is not holding Town Hall meetings.

Stop the environment:

Young Turks: Gabrielle Giffords insane challenger.

Darth Cheney Re-emerges:

Ann Telnaes: D.C.’s version of “Duck and Cover”.

Thom with some Good, some Bad, and some Very, Very Ugly.

Tool Time: The donkey whisperer.

Young Turks: Pat Robertson’s on the earthquake.

Dave Letterman on Rachel Maddow’s reporting on him.

Libya Leaves Republicans Red-faced:

Olbermann: Has the partnership between the NYPD and CIA going too far?.

Ron Reagan: Turd-blossom vs. Moose-dung—The Palin-Rove 2012 smackdown continues.

White House: West Wing Week.

The Daily Show Explains:

Ed: FAUX and friends tackle the big issues—hair.

ONN: Law gives all mistreated Americans right to open casinos.

Restoring Insanity: ‘Blubbering baboon’ Glenn Beck takes his act to Jerusalem: .

Unrequited Love:

Maddow: Tea Party is just re-branding of religious conservative Republicans.

Sam Seder and the Wingnut “50% of Americans Don’t Pay Taxes” LIE.

Seattle under siege by pod of California Orcas.

Thom debunks the “Jobs Creators” myth.

NPR “It’s All Politics”: Disaster edition.

Rep. Eric Cantor contradicts his way to Worst Person in the World.

Thom: Why is Paul Ryan using the Police to hide from constitutients.

The G.O.P. Primary Asylum:

Thom with The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ugly.

Ed: Republicans hate Obama more than they hate taxes.

Sam Seder: The decline of American journalism.

Alyona: The funding of Islamophobia.

Tea Party chair Sherry Lanford Smith crazies her way to Worst Person in the World.

Hayes and Greenwald: “War criminal” Dick Cheney.

Happy Hour: Glenn Beck’s Israel #FAIL.

Thom with John Deans: How the Koch Brothers are endangering Americans.

Olbermann: Eric Cantor and his Scrooge-like response to natural disasters.

Maddow: New anti-abortion laws.

Alyona: Unions have “Stockholm syndrome”.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

We didn’t need no stinkin’ disaster response

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Ron Paul shows just how totally in tune he is with the real world:

After a lunch speech today, Ron Paul slammed the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, and said that no national response to Hurricane Irene is necessary.

“We should be like 1900; we should be like 1940, 1950, 1960,” Paul said.

Ahhh, yes…those were the good ol’ days. Babies were healthy…

infantmortality

…if they were healthy enough to survive.

Children had the strongest of mothers…

maternalmortal

…if their mother was strong enough to make it.

And we ate natural disasters for breakfast…

hurricanemortality

…when they didn’t have us for a snack.

Life was fabulous…

expectationlife

…while we had it.

Gooooooood times!

Fine Republicans

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Once again, Republicans demonstrate that they are The Party of Fiscal Responsibility (via Publicola):

The State elections commission has fined the Washington State Republican Party $6,700 for campaign violations during the 2010 state senate elections.

…Republicans were late to report a $60,000 contribution to state senate candidate Sen. Steve Litzow (R-41, Mercer Island) […] and late to report a nearly $10,000 contribution to state senate Republican candidate Marty McClendon.

The GOP also was late to report a batch of contributions it received from its campaign committees totaling $378,000 as well as contributions from companies including Microsoft and Premera Blue Cross totaling over $100,000.

Frankly, I’m happy Republicans have a reputation for something positive. I mean, if they lost that cred, today’s Republicans would just look like a pitchfork- and torch-wielding angry mob on some kind of teabag-infused witch hunt for Jebus.

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottleIt’s Tuesday!

So please join us for another evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but a few folks will show up early for dinner.



Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? The Bellingham Chapter also meets at 7:00pm tonight. Tomorrow the Burien chapter meets at 7:00pm. There are 234 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state and six more in Oregon.

Rep. Dave Reichert: Coward

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Rep. Dave Reichert is, perhaps, best known for compulsively talking about his bravery. He has, after all, stared down the business end of a loaded gun…or some such thing.

When it comes to politics…not so much.

Yesterday The Atlantic took up the apparent decline in town hall style meetings on the heels of the 2009 teabagger-infused raucous town hall season.

During this year’s recess many congresscritters are replacing town hall meetings with other forms of constituent contact like individual meetings, themed meetings, and small venues. These alternatives tend to make constituent contact more difficult, but…

Congressional aides insisted that their events are well publicized through e-mail, website announcements, or alerts in local newspapers. They cited scheduling issues as the top reason for announcing an event on short notice.

There are notable exceptions (emphasis added):

But not all members make their schedules public. The office of Rep. Dave Reichert, (R-Wash.) declined to release his schedule of events.

“Aside from various other tours and visits in the community, we are currently planning his tele-town hall schedule,” spokesman Charles McCray wrote in an e-mail. More than 200 protesters gathered outside Reichert’s office on Thursday, the third such incident this month.

Oh, great. Reichert is afraid of his constituents and the national press has picked up on it.

Thanks for embarrassing us…fucking coward.

Free cars aren’t for the little people

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Dear God…Goldy is back to his infernal begging again.

Just because gubernatorial candidate and current state Attorney General Rob McKenna gets a car as a form of political contribution, doesn’t mean Goldy is entitled.

Simply put, Goldy isn’t influential enough. I mean, even as a journalist for a prestigious regional newspaper, Goldy doesn’t quite make the cut as an…

…overseer of business practices by the state’s automobile dealerships.

or as the state’s top dog consumer advocate who

…receives complaints against dealers for deceptive advertising practices, dishonest promotions or hidden costs.

or as the Washington consumer’s investigator, prosecutor, judge and executioner, who

…investigates, determines penalties, negotiates settlement agreements and — on occasion — takes miscreants to court.

It’s not like Goldy is ever going to be in a position to craft…

…settlements with car dealers over advertisements that allegedly violated the state’s consumer protection laws.

Nope…Goldy just doesn’t have the clout of an Attorney General.

But since he is something of a sports writer—namely, author of The Stranger’s Sports Blotter column—maybe the UW Huskey Football team should be donating season tickets to Goldy…

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

David Shuster: How FAUX News got the Secret Service bus story wrong.

Thom: FAUX News doesn’t know jack about economics.

More Rotting NewsCorpse:

Christine O’Donnell gets all weird and walks out of a CNN interview.

Thom: How Republicans avoid angry constituents…outsourcing?

Jon does Michael Steele.

Koch Brothers Exposed:

Seattle’s Hempfest arrives.

White House: West Wing Week.

Ann Telnaes: The New Media censorship.

Thom: What happened to compassionate conservatism?

Ed: Hannity Psychotalk on unemployment.

The Libertarian Floating Petri Dish Dream:

Young Turks: More town hall heckling.

Sam Seder: Missouri Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder’s strip club problem.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News on Texas’ prayers answered.

Thom: more Good, Bad and Very, Very Ugly.

ONN: Supreme Court rules first amendment does not apply to one annoying man.

The Republican Primary Nut House:

Newsy: Bill Clinton goes vegan.

Sam Seder: Who is the Tea Party?

Thom: Darrel Issa and the Lobbyists.

Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma shoots up his way to Worst Person in the World.

Highlights of Obama’s Rural Economic Tour:

Jon: hose money grubbing fat cat poor people:

Tweety: Coburn’s racist attack on Obama, and other crazy sideshows events.

SCTV: Eco-Maniac.

On Wisconsin:

Young Turks: Is Allen West Harriet Tubman?

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Jane Hague’s big troubles

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One of my favorite outcomes from Tuesday’s primary election was in the King County Council District 6 race.

Incumbent Jane Hague is in trouble.

Yesterday’s data dump shows Hague with 38.8% of the vote. Next is Democrat Richard E. Mitchell with 29.1% of the vote. Port Commissioner John Creighton is third with 24.6% of the vote, and Patsy Bonincontri took 7.2%.

(One reason I like this outcome is pure vanity. Political uberwonks Erica Barnett and Josh Feit predicted Hague and Creighton making it through. I predicted Hague and Mitchell. So there.)

We cannot generally read too much into a top-two primary result. But, holy shit, 38.8% for the incumbent? That cannot be considered positive. I see no way that Hague takes anything close to half the Creighton vote in the General. Many Creighton voters were making a statement—a protest against the incumbent.

The votes tallied yesterday were greatly skewed relative to the election night dump: Mitchell was within 2% of Hague.

Why the shift in the later ballots?

Mitchell’s campaign offers the explanation:

“Undecideds clearly are breaking for Richard because they’re tired of the personal and legal drama of the other opponents. That is clearly reflected in the numbers,” [Mitchell’s political consultant, Jason] Bennett said.

Maybe. Bennett offers another possibility:

[Hague] may have suffered from a backlash by Tim Eyman and other anti-tax conservatives over Hague’s decision to vote for an annual $20 car-tab fee to maintain Metro bus service.

This seems less plausible. First, as Goldy points out in this must read piece featuring Goldy defending Hague, King county rejected Eyman’s most recent “Thou shalt have $30 car tabs” initiative by a 60-40 margin.

Secondly, the anti-government nut jobs that would actually change their vote in response to Tim Eyman’s apoplectic screeds against Hague would most likely throw their vote behind the politically androgynous Creighton before Mitchell, who told The Stranger Election Control Board that

…he would approve a $20 car-tab fee to avert a devastating 17 percent cut in Metro bus service and believes in a minor sales tax bump to rescue the county’s underfunded criminal-justice system.

(As an aside, Eyman produced a:

wanted poster-style enemies list that pictures and labels four County Council members. The word “Liar!” appears below mug shots of Jane Hague and Kathy Lambert.

Does Tim “Biggest Lie of my Life” Eyman really want to go there?)

My hunch is that some folks who mailed their ballots at the last minute simply did a little on-line research. Mitchell looks great when investigated on-line. Hague…not so much. Like here.

Perspective

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Via CBS News:

So far, President Obama has taken 61 vacation days after 31 months in office. At this point in their presidencies, George W. Bush had spent 180 days at his ranch where his staff often joined him for meetings. And Ronald Reagan had taken 112 vacation days at his ranch.

Among recent presidents, Bill Clinton took the least time off — 28 days.

Yes…Elvis was the hardest working. Obama’s a close second. George W. Bush? To be kind, let’s call it The National Guard Plan.

Right-wing nutjobs point out with sophomoric glee that “Obama plays more golf than Bush!!!” Of course he does. I mean, after this “performance”, Bush pretty much had to recreate by other means. (He had to give up carrier landings for similar reasons.)

Other metrics could be manufactured out of arbitrary presidential pastimes: Bush spent much more time than Obama destroying habitat clearing brush, perch fishing, Segway “riding”, and mountain biking. On the other hand, we must admit that Obama has spent a lot more time engaged in presidential dribbling than did Bush.

But golf, mountain biking, hoops…whatever. Only one President was too distracted by vacationing to act on a daily briefing titled, “Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US”. That inaction started another big mess that Obama has spent years cleaning up. Apparently using some of his vacation days.

Celebrating Elvis’ birthday!

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If there is one thing that Americans can agree upon and rally behind is that Elvis Presley was the King.

So it’s just plain ol’ good, smart politics for Rep. Michele Bachmann to head down South today to help celebrate Elvis’ birthday:

Only one problem. It’s a small wrinkle, but one we shouldn’t overlook…today isn’t the anniversary of Elvis’ birth.

It’s the anniversary of Elvis’ death.

Holy shit…someone’s been taking stupid lessons from Sarah Palin!

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