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Archives for May 2020

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 5/29/20, 11:39 pm

Lauren Mayer: “One Plate at a Time”.

Bill Maher: All bets are off

ТрампPlague:

  • The Daily Show: 100,000 accomplished
  • Trevor: A Costco face mask showdown
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп wants essential churches open!
  • Vox: How coronavirus spreads outdoors vs. indoors
  • Jimmy Kimmel: The Dotard wants to SHUT DOWN Twitter
  • Michael Kosta meets the Grim Reaper
  • Bruce W. Nelson: “Trumps” (with apologies to Joyce Kilmer)
  • Barack Obama: “Pissed Away”:

  • Daily Show: Трамп’s totally not weird way of standing
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп Tuesdays #5
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп blames Obama in song
  • Late Night storytime: Трамп family quarantine
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп golfs & pool parties in the Ozarks
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп fights voting by mail fraud and masks
  • Mother Jones: The racist history behind Трамп’s violent tweet
  • Full Frontal: The Pandemic Diaries
  • Mark Fiore: Human capital stock
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard trashes his supporters in leaked phone call
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Ignore the experts, and listen to Трамп’s gut
  • Daily Show: Microsoft Excel—Coronavirus Edition
  • David Crosby: “What are their names”
  • Red State Update: CHLOROQUINE (Parody of John Deere Green):

  • Hasan Minhaj: Kamala Harris discusses COVID-19 and the election
  • Roy Wood Jr.: Tired of wearing a mask? Leo Deblin has the solution
  • Vox: What Bill Gates hopes we learn from coronavirus
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Donald Trump vaccine (available to Americans, November 3, 2020)
  • J-L Cauvin: Happy Memorial Day from The Dotard
  • AJ+: A tale of two pandemics
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s Twitter feud with Twitter
  • Trevor: Animals in the time of coronavirus

Now This: Michelle Obama surprises students engaged in voter registration.

Hasan Minhaj: The legal marijuana industry is rigged

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Black Lives Matter:

  • Now This: Former V.P. Joe Biden remarks on the killing of George Floyd
  • Trevor: George Floyd, Minneapolis protests, Ahmaud Arbery & Amy Cooper
  • Now This: CNN reporter and crew arrested live on-air in Minneapolis
  • Vice News: Anti-police brutality protests are going national even in a pandemic
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel on George Floyd, riots in Minneapolis & Трамп’s violent stupidity.
  • Now This: Minnesota AG Keith Ellison responds to the killing

Robert Reich: Robert Reich’s advice to the Class of 2020.

Vice News: Navajo Nation may finally get a better shot at voting in the presidential election

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Wednesday Morning Open Thread

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 5/27/20, 8:26 am

A few months after the initial need, this week the stimulus package finally got help to me. The stimulus check arrived. And, more important to me, the company I work for finally had its PPP loan approved. So that’s good.

It is still frustrating. These things should have happened sooner. I have enough savings and if worst came to worst, I could have moved in with family. So the delay wasn’t bad for me (except for the stress of not knowing about my job) but it really should have been faster for people who needed it right away.

Anyway, go wash your hands right now.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 5/22/20, 11:52 pm

Lauren Mayer: It’s not nice to screw Mother Nature.

Stephen chats with Joe Biden, Part I.

Stephen chats with Joe Biden, Part II.

Hasan Minhaj: What happens if you can’t pay rent?

Roll Call: Doggy doo, rucksacks and Starbucks—Congressional hits and misses of the week.

ТрампPlague:

  • The Late Show: Catty Kombat final round—The Dotard Трамп vs. Nancy Pelosi
  • Seth Meyers: Trump attacks vote-by-mail, refuses to wear a mask
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп appoints James Woods to his cabinet!
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Obamagate (the song)
  • Robert Reich: A tale of two pandemics
  • The New Yorker: The rise of Sheriffs opposing lockdown
  • Jaboukie Young White: Rich people in the time of corona
  • Stephen: Muzzled By Трамп, the CDC releases watered down guidelines for reopening
  • Randy Rainbow: DISTRACTION!:

  • Trevor: Top 20 quarantine tips
  • John Di Domenico: Трамп meets with top religious leaders demands churches open now!
  • Sarah Cooper: How to hydroxychloroquine
  • The Late Show: Trump’s miracle drug—side effects may vary
  • SNL: Dr. Birx Ad
  • Trevor: Why are we still having the mask debate?
  • J-L Cauvin: Donald Trump reviews Joe Biden on The Breakfast Club
  • Stephen: Our positively negative President says “We’ll put out the fires” of any second waves of infection
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Hail to our Hydroxychloro Queen!
  • Jimmy Kimmel with another quarantine monologue
  • The Late Show: Mike Pompeo’s aide mixes up his errands
  • Jordan Klepper: Standing up for the anti-anti-lockdown movement
  • Seth Meyers: Трамп says he’s taking hydroxychloroquine
  • J-L Cauvin: Trump Tuesdays—Episode 4
  • Trevor with Madeleine Albright: Diplomacy during coronavirus
  • Bill Maher: Entrance strategy
  • The Late Show: We know why Mike Pompeo wanted the Inspector General fired
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Something great’s going to happen:

  • The Daily Show: FAUX News doesn’t think this man is fit to e President
  • Mark Fiore: MAGA Masks!
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп is “Man of the Year” & “King of Ventilators”
  • Stephen: Трамп fires State Dept. IG to protect Mike Pompeo & reveals he’s taking hydroxychloroquine
  • The Late Show: Human-cow hybrids may provide the cure to COVID-19
  • Trevor: The Mike Pompeo scandal & Трамп’s tantrum over mail-in ballots
  • Seth Meyers: Obama speaks out about Трамп’s coronavirus failures
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп congratulates his law school daughter
  • John Di Domenico: “Testing is OVERRATED and not needed!”
  • The Late Show: Трамп calls Obama incompetent & falls down a manhole
  • The Second City PSA: It’s Okay
  • Trevor: Vaccine updates and Трамп fires another inspector general
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Does Трамп have a death wish?
  • Nancy Pelosi on unapproved drugs and Трамп’s “weight group”
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Amazing medical tips from Трамп
  • The Foundation Singers: “Like a Kidney Stone”:

  • The Late Show: Mike Pompeo’s aide mixes up his errands
  • WaPo: COVID-19 myths debunked by Congressional Candidate Qasim Rashid
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Трамп delivers commencement speech for class of 2020
  • Stephen: Трамп claps back after Pelosi says the “morbidly obese” President shouldn’t take hydroxychloroquine
  • Dr. Seema Yasmin: Doctor explains how fast a COVID-19 vaccine could be created
  • Vox: One reason why coronavirus hits black people the hardest
  • Trevor: Трамп takes hydroxychloroquine
  • Jon Oliver: Coronavirus VII—Sports
  • Bruce W. Nelson: He’s Just a Victim (No one’s suffered like The Dotard Трамп)
  • The Late Show: GOP recruits pro-Трамп doctors to support reopening push

Bill Maher: New Rule—Prime boss.

Winlar: Strip mall zoo.

Jonathan Mann: Climb the rope! Thanks, China (Ben Sasse Commencment remix).

Trevor: President Obama speaks to the Class of 2020.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Open Thread May 22

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 5/22/20, 8:22 am

Stop sweeping homeless encampments. Gah. There are no good solutions until we can build a lot more housing. But Jesus Christ on the cross, can we not? Especially in a pandemic, but even after.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

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Open Thread (What Even Are Days?)

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 5/20/20, 8:25 am

Good for AG Ferguson for getting 2 gyms to close during the stay home order. Honestly, I couldn’t imagine a worse place to choose to be than at the gym right now. Can’t wait to share equipment with people who are heavily breathing, indoors, and depending on the layout maybe impossible to social distance. One of the gyms says that it’s taking precautions, but still ick.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

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Monday Monday Monday Monday Monday Open Thread.

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 5/18/20, 8:03 am

Ti’s very dispiriting that Washington state has hit 1000 confirmed coronavirus dead. Social distancing and hand washing have slowed down the spread. But still, here we are. It’s better than if it had happened weeks or a month ago.

Anyway wash your hands right now.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 5/15/20, 11:16 pm

Samantha Bee: RoboSam and the rise of telemedicine.

The Daily Show: A message for the graduation class of 2020.

John Oliver: USPS.

Jonathan Mann: You chose Alex Jones.

Vox: Why beef is the worst food for the climate.

TрампPlague:

  • The Daily Show: Desi Lydic calls Aunt Jeanine
  • Stephen: Tрамп insists we’ve “prevailed” as Dr. Fauci refuses to sugarcoat his coronavirus outlook
  • Reflect: Tрамп shows off bio-hazard binder to trick Americans into thinking he knew what he was doing
  • J-L Cauvin: Tрамп Tuesday, Episode 2
  • Seth Meyers: Whistleblower Rick Bright’s damning testimony on Tрамп’s COVID-19 failures
  • SNL Weekend Update: Jeanine Pirro on coronavirus lockdown protests
  • Trevor: FBI seizes Senator’s phone & Wisconsin Supreme Court overturns lockdown
  • Samantha Bee: How coronavirus is starving the nation, Pt. 1
  • Samantha Bee: How coronavirus is starving the nation, Pt. 2
  • Now This: Dr. Fauci warns Senators against reopening states prematurely
  • The Late Show: Ted Cruz’s hairs seek deliverance from his head
  • Jimmy Kimmel with a quarantine monologue
  • Stephen: Tрамп throws shade at Dr. Rick Bright as the whistleblower warns congress of dark days ahead
  • Mark Fiore: Open for business
  • The Atlantic: Tрамп: A study in leadership
  • Founders Sing: Barr on the run:

  • The Daily Show: Rand Paul’s tie slaps some sense into him
  • Seth Meyers: Trump goes off the rails on Twitter and FAUX News
  • Trevor: What the fuck is “Obamagate”?
  • Ummmm…Tрамп baby
  • Stephen: Jake Tapper on Michael Flynn and norm erosion
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Tрамп DESTROYS 60 Minutes
  • The Late Show: Superhero wants “Obamagate” crime specifics
  • Now This: Whistleblower of coronavirus tried to warn the Tрамп administration
  • Late Night antibody PSA
  • Bruce W. Nelson: A salute to angry Tрамп followers
  • The Daily Show: Tрамп’s coronavirus response timeline
  • SNL Weekend Update: Trump’s valet tests positive for coronavirus
  • Trevor and Desi Lydic: Seriously, what is Obamagate?
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Fauci testifies & Tрамп pushes Obamagate
  • Stephen: Tрамп’s Rose Garden hissy fit, plus the dumbest thing The Dotard has ever said
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard Tрамп wants to get to 401K
  • The Late Show: Tрамп will be right here waiting for you
  • Robert Reich: The real reason Tрамп wants to reopen the economy
  • Sarah Cooper: More cases than anybody in the world
  • Seth Meyers: PPP and small businesses
  • SNL: Tрамп graduation speech
  • Trevor: White House coronavirus outbreak
  • Stephen: Jake Tapper on Tрамп’s downplaying of the coronavirus
  • Lars von Retriever: MetalTrump…and justice for all
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Tрамп & FAUX News vs Fauci and no more pants
  • The Daily Show game: What was Tрамп asked about?
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Weak men fear strong women
  • Lauren Mayer: The angry old man:

  • J-L Cauvin: Tрамп Tuesday, Episode 3
  • Vox: Dr. Anthony Fauci, explained
  • The Late Show: Tрамп crashes the Supreme Court’s oral arguments teleconference
  • Full Frontal: Reimagining the nation post-pandemic
  • Trevor: The latest in coronavirus science
  • Stephen: Republicans are sick of Dr. Fauci reminding them of how many people could get sick
  • Now This: Dr. Fauci claps back at Sen. Rand Paul for suggesting schools reopen
  • John Di Domenico: Missing uplifting Tрамп speech Americans want
  • Seth Meyers: Tрамп and FAUX try to distract from coronavirus with “Obamagate”
  • The Daily Show: DUMBKIRK—Tрамп declares war on coronavirus
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Tрамп’s whistleblower tantrum & stupidity on parade
  • USA Singers: We will resist
  • The Late Show: White House staffers worry about catching coronavirus at work
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard re-opens MAR-A-LAGO!

Dulcé Sloan: Why should you fill out the 2020 census?

Barack and Michelle Obama crash a virtual town hall.

BuzzFeed: Everything you need to know about murder hornets in 6 minutes.

The Daily Show: Womansplained—The wage gap, female representation & the E.R.A.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Open Thread Open Thread Open Thread

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 5/15/20, 6:54 am

Now that Darryl is doing the polling analysis, I want to remind you that you are a participant in the system. and family. Seeing the polls can make the election seem like it’s a force of nature. But the good news is that you can make a difference. You can donate. You can make calls. You can write about the candidates online or a letter to the editor. Send a postcard to a voter. Talk to your friends.

You are also a participant in washing your hands so wash them right now.

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Election analysis: Biden still leads

by Darryl — Thursday, 5/14/20, 9:18 pm

Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 348 electoral votes
Mean of 190 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Biden is still leading in today’s analysis. Last week, the score was 359 to 179 electoral votes (on average). Today, after 10,000 simulated elections, Biden receives, on average 348 to Trump’s 190 electoral votes.

The difference largely arises from Ohio, where one poll has dropped out and one new poll has been released. Now the three current polls give Trump a 51.3% to 48.7% advantage over Biden, suggesting he would win the state now with an 82% probability. Here is the polling in Ohio to date:

That 4th Marist poll with Biden up +4 dropped out and a new Emerson University poll was released with Trump up +3. Biden won every poll taken in 2018 and 2019, but the candidates have led in two polls apiece in 2020.

Florida is another interesting case. The collection of 4 current polls gives Biden a 51.6% to 48.4% lead over Trump, suggesting Biden would win the state now with a 98.8% probability. The long-term polling shows somewhat mixed results, but Biden leads in the most recent 5 polls. So far, in Florida polling, Biden has led in 13, Trump in 6 and there is one tie.

Finally, let’s look at Wisconsin. You may recall that in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by less than 23,000 votes. With only one current poll in hand, Biden leads Trump 57.2% to 42.8%, suggesting Biden would win a Wisconsin election now with a probability greater than 99%. The large margin is misleading in the larger contest of the total polling for the state:

There have been 31 polls testing a Biden–Trump election, all taken since March of 2019. Biden has led in 25 of the polls and Trump in six. But most of the leads are well within the margin of error. Biden has led in the last 6 consecutive polls. The net result is that Wisconsin still feels like a swing state with an edge for Biden.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Open Thread Wednesday May 13

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 5/13/20, 6:52 am

King County’s directive for mask wearing goes into effect on May 18. But if you can, please start wearing masks before that. You can help make the community safer.

As a Downtown resident, I find it somewhat amusing that “outdoors where social distancing is difficult” is district from “outdoors.” There are a lot of people outside regardless.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now.

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Open Thread Monday

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 5/11/20, 8:22 am

Are you tired? I am. For the last few days, my neighbor’s alarm has been going off at 10:00 PM the last few days. It’s loud enough to keep me up. I knocked on her door over the weekend, but nobody came to the door. I know that she has family in the area, so she’s probably fine. Should I ask the super to check on it?

Anyway, go wash your hands right now.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Saturday, 5/9/20, 12:07 am

The Daily Show: Tucker Carlson vs. Tucker Carlson, protest edition.

Jaboukie Young-White: Ending the ban on gay blood donors

Now This: Obama surprises teachers for national teacher appreciation week.

Jonathan Mann: Alex Jones will eat your leftist ass:

The Late Show: John Ratcliffe vs. Bear Inventor.

ТрампPlague:

  • Stephen: Andrew Cuomo and The Dotard Трамп fundamentally disagree on the value of a human life
  • Trevor: COVID-19 mutates & antibody tests fail
  • The Late Show: Lincoln can’t hold his tongue at Трамп
  • Bill Maher: Dan Savage—Love under lockdown
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Perfect mother’s day, maskless Pence, busy Трамп & mom texts
  • The Late Late Show: Behind the scenes of Трамп’s disinfectant idea
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard defends “Sleepy Joe” Biden!!
  • Seth Meyers: Трамп’s new coronavirus strategy is “Live and let die”
  • Wired: Disease expert compares “Contagion” to COVID-19
  • Trevor: Трамп moves the goalposts & states reopen amid chaos
  • Bruce W. Nelson: We must use more toilet paper (because of Трамп)
  • John Oliver: Coronavirus VI—Testing
  • Mika and Joe: Damning montage of Трамп’s rhetoric as coronavirus death toll rose
  • J-L Cauvin: Happy Mother’s Day from The Dotard Трамп
  • Trevor: Beef shortages & Jared Kushner’s botched PPE response
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s vicious attack against Jimmy
  • Robert Reich: Corporations will not save us from the coronavirus.
  • Seth Meyers: Rep. Ayanna Pressley calls out Трамп’s actions that left us behind the COVID-19 fight
  • Bill Maher: I don’t know it for a fact…I just know it’s true (coronavirus edition)
  • Late Night Storytime: The perfect president:

  • The Late Show: Who put this guy in charge?
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп wants a black wall
  • Seth Meyers: Трамп and his allies have a plan for protecting themselves, not you
  • The New York Times: How does coronavirus antibody testing work?
  • Samantha Bee: The things we should have been doing all along! Brought to you by coronavirus
  • The Daily Show: America CEO Dotard Трамп announces, “Everyone Must Go!”
  • Lauren Mayer: Testing, testing, testing (you lied)
  • Stephen: Трамп recklessly urges a “return to work” at town hall & gambling with lives to boost his re-elect
  • Trevor: Трамп won’t wear a mask and backpedals after task force backlash
  • J-L Cauvin: The Dotard says he is better than Lincoln
  • Stephen: Трамп’s valet tests positive for COVID-19 as his campaign prepares to deploy their “death star”
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп won’t wear masks & Jane’s pancake stand-off
  • Seth Meyers: Not now, murder hornets
  • Mark Fiore: Supply-siders for death and tax cuts
  • Bruce W. Nelson: Murder Hornets, Dotard Трамп
  • Trevor: A Supreme Court flush & Трамп’s nurse tiff
  • Seth Meyers: The Dotard and Melanie Трамп celebrate National Day of Prayer
  • J-L Cauvin: Трамп, Dennis Rodman and the murder hornets
  • Lauren Meyer: “That’s the fight for the right to bowl in Georgia”:

  • The Late Show: Coronavirus vaccine not pumped by deadline
  • Now This: Трамп on all the things “nobody knew”
  • Jimmy Kimmel: Murder hornets, beach protests & Трамп the lyin’ king
  • Reflect: Trump’s train-wreck FAUX and Friends interview on Michael Flynn
  • Trevor: The battle over wearing masks
  • Seth Meyers: Трамп’s FAUX News coronavirus town hall
  • Vox: Why we’re seeing mass layoffs in the US but not the UK
  • USA Singers: We will resist
  • Stephen: Трамп reverses course when he realizes how popular his coronavirus task force has become

Bill Maher: New Rule–Sex monster.

Joe Biden gives an address on the economy.

Jonathan Mann: Murder hornets.

Seth Meyers: Hey! Democrats praising George W. Bush.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Friday Open Thread

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 5/8/20, 6:38 am

Here is the list of King County parks and trails that are reopening today. If you’re using one be cool. Allow social distancing to work. Still wear a mask. Wash your hands.

And if you’re going out or not, wash your hands right now.

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Election analyses are back for 2020: Biden leads Trump

by Darryl — Wednesday, 5/6/20, 4:04 pm

Biden
Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning
< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 359 electoral votes
Mean of 179 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

It’s been some years since you’ve seen one of these election analyses here at HA. Given that Biden and Trump will almost certainly be the nominees of their parties, and given that there are more than 300 state head-to-head polls released, it is time to start these up again.

These analyses use state head-to-head polls and mimic the electoral college process as well as following the rules of each state on how electors are awarded in the state. Most states (and D.C.) use the rule “winner takes all,” but Maine and Nebraska allocates two electors to the state victor and the rest go by the vote of each congressional district.

There are a few states that have no polling yet. These are D.C. (not a state, but it gets three electors anyway), Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Louisiana, Nebraska, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming. Clearly, these are not swing states. I’ve simply averaged the result from the past 4 elections and always award electors from the state that way. The results are exactly what you would expect–Illinois goes to Biden, South Dakota goes to Trump, etc. Interestingly, Nebraska’s 2nd CD just barely went for Obama in 2008, but NE-2 will be assigned to Trump in these analyses until we get polling that allows the state to be rolled into the simulations.

New polls come out almost daily, so I’ll post new analyses when I have time to collect polls, conduct the analyses, and post results.

So, how do these analyses work? I am using a statistical method called Monte Carlo analysis to, essentially, conduct mock elections in each state. The outcome of each state election is a probabilistic outcome that reflects the number of people polled recently in the state and the fraction of polled individuals saying they would vote for each candidate. Currently, I consider the last two months of polling as “current”, but that window will shrink as the pace of polling picks up. I usually do 100,000 mock elections to simulate what would happen if the election was held now. The FAQ has the details, although I need to update the FAQ for this election cycle.

Note that I do not claim these analyses predict the election outcome. Rather they reflect what we would expect for an election held now. It serves as something like the score in a basketball game. The half-time score only tells you who is leading. A lopsided score may give you an inkling of who will win, but it is just the half-time score. Watching a basketball game is far more interesting when you are allowed to know the score. Likewise, knowing the “score” in an election contest is much more interesting. In developing these analyses, I have tried to be scrupulously unbiased. If all the polls were to be flipped, Trump’s results would look like Biden’s, and Biden’s Trump’s.

Okay, so what would the outcome be if the election was held today? After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins every simulated election. Biden received (on average) 359 electoral votes to Trump’s 179 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.01% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 06-May-2019 to 06-May-2020, and including polls from the preceding two months. When the purple line is above the dashed line, it means Biden is expected to win. The red and green lines provide “confidence intervals”. For example, at each time point, there was a 95% chance that any simulated election fell between the green lines. If the lower green line dips down to touch the dashed line, it means Trump would have a 2.5% chance of winning.

Here is a plot showing the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] that resulted from the 100,000 simulated elections for the analysis done today (essentially, a vertical slice from the previous graph at today’s date):

[There is much more, including state-by-state analyses below the fold….]

[Read more…]

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Open Thread Wednesday May 6

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 5/6/20, 8:13 am

I don’t get the people who are rushing to reopen. The economy is awful and nobody is happy staying in. But suing to infect more of your constituents is just garbage. Like more death is good for the economy, somehow. Like if your employees all get sick and some die it’s a goo day at work. Like going to a restaurant or a bowling alley now would even be reasonable. Ugh.

Anyway, please wash your hands right now.

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Recent HA Brilliance…

  • Wednesday Open Thread Wednesday, 5/7/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 5/6/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 5/5/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Friday, 5/2/25
  • Friday Open Thread Friday, 5/2/25
  • Today’s Open Thread (Or Yesterday’s, or Last Year’s, depending On When You’re Reading This… You Know How Time Works) Wednesday, 4/30/25
  • Drinking Liberally — Seattle Tuesday, 4/29/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 4/28/25
  • Monday Open Thread Monday, 4/28/25
  • Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Saturday, 4/26/25

Tweets from @GoldyHA

I no longer use Twitter because, you know, Elon is a fascist. But I do post occasionally to BlueSky @goldyha.bsky.social

From the Cesspool…

  • Roger Rabbit on Wednesday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Wednesday Open Thread
  • Elijah Dominic McDotcom on Wednesday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Wednesday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Wednesday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Wednesday Open Thread
  • Roger Rabbit on Wednesday Open Thread
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