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Archives for April 2012

Establishment Support

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 4/18/12, 8:39 am

First Governor Gregoire and now Rick Larsen have endorsed Suzan DelBene. I’m not sure how much endorsements matter, but these are good ones to have. Her campaign also has raised the most money.

So it seems like the establishment support is coalescing around her. I don’t know if there’s anything other than money that makes her more establishment than Ruderman etc. She’s a fine candidate, and was willing to take on Reichert in a year that was going to be tough for Democrats. If Democrats want to give her another shot, that’s cool. But Ruderman stepped aside in 1998 to clear the field for Jay Inslee, and then actually won an election for legislature.

The main thing seems to be that she can (and has shown she’s willing to) self finance. If she needs the money, the Democrats won’t have to bail her out when Karl Rove spends literally infinity corporate dollars in the district.

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Goldy’s sex scandal

by Darryl — Tuesday, 4/17/12, 4:30 pm

It’s about damn time that Obama got himself a bona fide (so to speak) sex scandal. This one did not involve Obama making use of a “human humidor” (as folk musician Eric Schwartz once put it).

Yeah…well now our very own (well…The Stranger’s own) Goldy has a sex scandal…kind-of. The Stranger’s Cienna Madrid has the scoop:

Yesterday, my suspicions were aroused when I overheard Goldy (of all people) bragging about having “sexual relations” with a state senator. The pool’s just not that large, folks.

And denials from Goldy….

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 4/17/12, 3:16 pm

DLBottleGet those taxes in! And then join us tonight for another evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

Seattle DL meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. We begin at 8:00pm, but some folks show up earlier for dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? There is also a Tuesday meeting of the Tri-Cities chapter. And the Tacoma chapter meets on Thursday.

With 234 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

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Open Thread 4/17

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 4/17/12, 8:02 am

– Congrats to Eli Sanders.

– Our shitty discourse.

– I think the usual things that affect the female vote, especially a since of compassion and fairness, won’t be moved by the Good Housewives vs. Dirty Sluts narrative the Republicans are trying to establish.

– Joel Connelly has a great piece summarizing Super PAC’s. It’s mostly info you already knew, but it’s good to have it in one place.

– Okay, Lord Player is clearly the best phrase ever said in any context ever.

– Fuse has a petition for Amazon to stop funding ALEC.

– Broccoli

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Local Option Income Tax

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 4/16/12, 10:18 pm

I was at a candidate’s forum for the open seat in the 36th district and it was pretty standard for one of the most liberal districts in the state. They all support marriage equality and an income tax. But one thing that Sahar Fathi said in passing was that we could have a local option income tax. I wish the forum allowed for a follow up on that, but it seems like a reasonable thing to have, but how would it work?

I’d assume you would allocate a certain amount to the counties and a certain amount to the cities. It would presumably be the sort of thing that could be done either by a city or county council or by a vote of the people.

While, I would prefer a statewide income tax, that was rejected at the polls recently, so it probably won’t happen for a while. We can at least enact it in places where it’s popular and either generate more revenue or make the local tax structure more fair. And that money would stay in Seattle or King County.

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World view

by Darryl — Monday, 4/16/12, 2:41 pm

Six months ago, Florida Governor Rick Scott had plans to make Florida a “better” state by de-funding state higher education programs in fields like psychology and anthropology:

“Is it a vital interest of the state to have more anthropologists? I don’t think so.”

Scotts “War on Anthropology” was based on an incorrect assumption that there is no job market for anthropologists:

…[T]he difference in job growth between [math and science] jobs and anthropologists is slight. Anthropology jobs are expected to grow by 28 percent, while computer software engineers and environmental engineering technician jobs will grow by 30 percent.

“The expected growth isn’t that much different in terms of percentage,” said Chris Cunningham, an analyst with the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And then there is this from today’s news:

Jim Yong Kim was chosen to be president of the World Bank, becoming the first physician and Asian-American to head the lender after emerging markets failed to rally around a challenger to the U.S. monopoly on the job.

The World Bank board of directors said today it chose Dartmouth College President Kim to succeed Robert Zoellick, whose term ends June 30. A specialist in HIV/AIDS with a Ph.D. in anthropology, Kim, 52, faced rival bids from Nigeria and Colombia.

Be warned, Gov. Scott, anthropologists will rule the World… Bank.

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Open Thread 4/16

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 4/16/12, 8:02 am

– Am I the only person who thinks Dennis Kucinich shouldn’t come to Washington to run for Congress, but is fine with it if he does?

– Father Michael Ryan, head of St. James Cathedral, tells parishioners in a letter that gathering signatures for Referendum 74 would “prove hurtful and seriously divisive in our community.” (h/t to Howie on Facebook)

– Bravo! Welcome to the proper side of this debate!

– Obama wins the WA Caucus.

– New menu items at Tutta Bella.

– Kings of the AL West’s second tier is maybe all the Mariners can hope for.

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 4/15/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won by no one. Apparently, Dana and I have TV tastes that don’t resonate with the HA readers. The view was of Cameron and Mitchell’s house from the show Modern Family, located in Los Angeles, CA.

UPDATE: Last week’s contest was won by Coosboy last night after this was posted.

This week’s location is somewhere in Washington state, good luck!

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HA Bible Study

by Goldy — Sunday, 4/15/12, 7:00 am

Romans 13:6-7
You must also pay your taxes. The authorities are God’s servants, and it is their duty to take care of these matters. Pay all that you owe, whether it is taxes and fees or respect and honor.

Discuss.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 4/13/12, 11:57 pm

Thom: The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Sen Chuck’s tweet.

Ed and Pap: Stop supporting ALEC members.

I didn’t speak up.

Mark Fiore: Dogboy and Mr. Dan in “Restrain Yourself”.

Sam Seder: Michele Bachmann says uninsured choose to not have health insurance!.

Maddow does Bill Maher.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Ann Telnaes: The Catholic leadership’s selective use of duct tape.

Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Pennsylvania edition:

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Rep. West’s imaginary Communist Conspiracy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thom: Rep. West, not so many Communists…plenty of Fascists.

Young Turks: Ex-gay’ therapy advocate now says his theory about gay choice was wrong.

ONN: Dems say Obama has dicked us around for four years…”it’s our turn”.

White House: West Wing Week.

The Second Half of the G.O.P. Gladiatorial Games:

  • Ron Paul takes potshots at Mitt, Newt, and Santorum.
  • A match made in heaven.
  • Mitt Romney is sooooooo gay!
  • Buzz 60: Obama and Biden release their taxes. Romney??
  • Jen Granholm: Romney is out of touch?
  • What if Romney loses??
  • Romney should listen to Lilly Ledbetter.
  • Mitt Romney: Memories to last a lifetime
  • Stephen on Mitt’s possible running mates.
  • How Mitt Romeny got his tax extension:
  • Mitt chats with Sean Hannity about his horse breeds, ties.
  • Ann Telnaes: Santorum quits.
  • Jon says “Goodbye” to Rick Santorum.

Thom: Patriotic millionaires WANT more taxes.

Young Turks: FAUX News mole is fired.

Is Herman Cain trying to sell chicken-topped pizza?

Sam Seder: Health Care and the Supreme Court.

Stephen on Sen. Chuck Grassley’s twitter feed.

Liberal Viewer: Is broccoli like health insurance?

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Young Turks: Obama calls Kanye a jackass…AGAIN!

The Republican War on Women™:

  • Maddow: War on Women at the NRA.
  • Actual Audio: Reince Priebus & the War Against Women
  • Thom on the Snatch project.
  • Stephen on the Democrat War on Women
  • Sam Seder: Women are just like livestock says recently passed Georgia bill.
  • Jen Gramholm with Nancy Pelosi: Women should run for office and ‘kick open the door’.
  • Young Turks: Sarah Silverman’s abortion joke.
  • Alyona debunks the BS about 92.3% of jobs lost by women.

Maddow: Gun violence.

Jen Granholm: The creators of Texts From Hillary.

Sam Seder: Conservatives trust in science declining.

Jon on CNN’s new branded news segments.

Young Turks: Cory Booker heroic fire rescue.

Ann Telnaes: Stand your ground laws.

Kimmel: Unnecessary Censorship.

Stephen does Michelle Obama.

Thom: Fracking earthquakes.

Charging Zimmerman:

  • Jon covers the Zimmerman charging.
  • Liberal Viewer: Will Hannity be a witness against Zimmerman?
  • Ed and Pap: Self-centered Hannity making Trayvon murder all about Hannity.
  • Young Turks: “Stand Your Ground” law in Florida is a ‘classic case’ of NRA lobbying.
  • Thom: Zimmerman had the rules of engagement wrong.
  • Jon on outrage over NBC’s selective editing.
  • Young Turks: Hannity defends Zimmerman.

Newark Mayor Cory Booker saves neighbor from fire.

Pap: Who is responsible for high gas prices.

Remember Big oil tax breaks?

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Drug testing Child Support Recipients!?!

Young Turks: Obama vs. Bush on income equality.

Shit Rep. Allen West says.

Thom: So much more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: Obama still dominates Romney

by Darryl — Friday, 4/13/12, 2:52 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 347 electoral votes Mean of 191 electoral votes

It’s settled then, Mitt Romney is the inevitable nominee who will carry the torch for Republicans into the general election. So let’s see how he’s doing against President Barack Obama.

Here are the new polls that have been released since my previous analysis two weeks ago:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA SurveyUSA 29-Mar 02-Apr 1995 2.2 61.6 30.6 O+31.0
CO PPP 05-Apr 07-Apr 542 4.2 53 40 O+13
IN Bellwether Research 26-Mar 28-Mar 503 5.0 40 49 R+9
ME Maine PRC 31-Mar 02-Apr 993 3.1 54.6 37.0 O+17.6
ME1 Maine PRC 31-Mar 02-Apr 522 4.3 60.5 33.0 O+27.5
ME2 Maine PRC 31-Mar 02-Apr 471 4.5 48.0 41.4 O+6.6
MA Rasmussen 09-Apr 09-Apr 500 4.5 51 40 O+11
MA Boston Globe 21-Mar 27-Mar 544 4.2 49 33 O+16
MI EPIC/MRA 31-Mar 03-Apr 600 4.0 48 40 O+8
MT Rasmussen 02-Apr 02-Apr 500 4.5 40 49 R+9
NV PPP 29-Mar 01-Apr 553 4.2 51 43 O+8
NH U NH 21-Mar 27-Mar 544 4.2 49 33 O+16
NJ Quinnipiac 03-Apr 09-Apr 1607 2.4 49 40 O+9
NJ Eagleton-Rutgers 21-Mar 27-Mar 601 4.3 58 31 O+27
NM Rasmussen 03-Apr 03-Apr 500 4.5 52 36 O+16
NY Siena 01-Apr 04-Apr 808 3.4 60 35 O+25
NY Quinnipiac 28-Mar 02-Apr 1597 3.0 56 33 O+23
NC Rasmussen 10-Apr 10-Apr 500 4.5 44 46 R+2
NC PPP 04-Apr 07-Apr 975 3.1 49 44 O+5
PA Muhlenberg 23-Mar 01-Apr 492 5.0 45 40 O+5
VA Roanoke College 25-Mar 05-Apr 591 4.0 40.1 45.9 R+5.8

Many of these polls are entirely unsurprising: California, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New York. Maine isn’t a surprise either. But, for the first time this election season, we have Maine Congressional District data that show Obama on track to win all of the state’s electoral votes.

Obama still leads in Pennsylvania, as he has for the previous six polls going back to early February. The Southwest swing states are sticking with Obama, with good leads for him in Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. These are states that Bush won in 2004 and Obama won in 2008. Michigan shows no love for a native son—Obama keeps the lead.

In North Carolina we have a PPP poll that gives Obama a +5 lead and a Rasmussen poll that gives Obama a -2 loss. Romney dominates in Montana; and, he leads in Indiana and Virginia, states that went for Obama in 2008. This is our first poll from Indiana, by the way.

The previous analysis showed Obama leading Romney by and average of 347 to 191 electoral votes and a 100% probability of winning an election held then.

Now, after a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections using the state head-to-head polls, Obama still wins all 100,000. Obama’s average electoral vote total is still 347 to Romney’s 191.

The effective end of the Republican primary this week should mark a change in the dynamics of this race. Expect Romney’s chances to improve considerably as new polls roll in. The full effect may not be seen for another month (depending on the frequency and diversity of polling).

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Caucus Sunday

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 4/13/12, 8:02 am

If you’re interested in nominating Obama and improving the Democratic platform, Saturday Sunday is the first day in the process.

Those of you who were able to resist attempting mischief in the Republican caucuses and thereby retained your eligibility for the Democratic caucuses can collect your reward this Sunday, as Washington Democrats begin the process of selecting 130 folks to represent us at the Democratic National Convention.

Even though Obama has already accrued enough delegates to get the nomination, it’s nice to be able to voice your support. I’ve never caucused for a winner, so maybe I’ll go just for that. But the other thing is to improve the platform. The big push by activists will be for a marriage equality plank.

I’ll be caucusing Sunday afternoon, and running for delegate to the LD/County level with a pledge to support the nomination and re-election of President Barack Obama and the inclusion of explicit marriage equality language in the county, state and national platforms. I’ll be asking for a similar commitment from those who seek my vote for delegate to any level as the process advances.

If anyone knows of any other planks activist groups are pushing, I’d love to hear about them in the comments. Universal single payer health care and an end to the drug war are two ideas off the top of my head that would probably benefit from a platform fight, but I don’t know of any activist groups pushing for them in the platform.

Anyway, you can find your caucus here. Good luck.

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Quotable

by Darryl — Friday, 4/13/12, 12:41 am

How many of you all have a Swiss bank account?

— Vice President Joe Biden countering Mitt Romney’s claim that President Barack Obama is “out of touch.”

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Goodman Out

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 4/12/12, 6:52 pm

It’s not too surprising.

State Rep. Roger Goodman (D-45, Kirkland), one of six candidates who announced for the First District Congressional seat being vacated by US Rep. Jay Inslee (D-1)—Inslee, of course, is running for governor—announced today that he’s dropping out of the race. Goodman’s decision comes on the heels of what he himself called an “anemic” quarter of fundraising, which prompted rumors last month that he planned to withdraw from the race.

It’ll be interesting to see if this puts any pressure on any of the remaining non-Darcy Burner candidates to drop out and coalesce around an anybody but Darcy candidate, or if the rest of the pack stays in. It’ll also be interesting to see (if you can with small numbers) where his support goes. As I’ve said, I like all the candidates I know in the race.

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Open Thread 4/12

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 4/12/12, 8:01 am

– Once you write the fragment “it’s based on speculation rather than inside knowledge”, it should be clear that you would be providing your readers with a more useful service if you were to close your laptop, head to the nearest public park, and enjoy the nice weather. Why not do that instead?

– Misplaced priorities indeed.

– I’ve never thought much about Ashley Judd beyond the blandest adjectives—she’s pretty, she seems nice, her pores look really small—but it turns out she’s also a smart, bold, kickass feminist.

– Our awesome legislature.

– Who Seattle parks were named after. (h/t)

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