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Archives for February 2012

Strong Christian Values

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 2/3/12, 7:36 pm

Reading this post by Senator Paull Shin (h/t) on his vote against the marriage equality bill, this really bugged me:

My adopted family raised me as they raised their own children, with strong Christian values. To this day, I cherish those values and try to live my life in accordance with their teachings. Therefore my vote against passage of this bill was one that was deeply personal.

Senator Shin is free to find his values wherever he wants, of course. And if he lives his life according to those values, well great. But the job of state senator is to represent our secular, multi-religious, multicultural state and our secular, multi-religious, multicultural country. Those values should inspire legislation, not the values of any one faith.

The other bad thing about that argument (although he walks it back later in the piece) is that it implies that there’s only one way for Christians to vote. That Christians should unthinkingly all agree on public policy in 2012, in America, based on a book written thousands of years ago. That they should all agree with the most regressive version of Christianity not just in their personal lives but in public policy. As if the main Senate sponsor, and the governor who pushed it weren’t Catholics. As if most of the people who voted for it weren’t Christians.

If you want to make horrible arguments for a bad vote, go ahead. But don’t tell me Jesus made you do it.

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Poll Analysis: Obama strengthens lead over Gingrich

by Darryl — Friday, 2/3/12, 5:05 pm

[Update: An analysis using more recent polls can be found here.]

Five new state head-to-head polls have been released since my previous analysis of a hypothetical election contest between Pres. Barack Obama and former Speaker Newt Gingrich:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O G diff
FL Marist 25-Jan 27-Jan 2795 1.9 52 35 O+17
FL Mason-Dixon 24-Jan 26-Jan 800 3.5 41 50 G+9
GA SurveyUSA 01-Feb 02-Feb 1144 3.0 43.9 49.7 G+5.9
MO PPP 27-Jan 29-Jan 582 4.1 49 42 O+7
OH PPP 28-Jan 29-Jan 820 3.4 51 39 O+12

The two most recent Florida polls contradict each other. One gives Obama a +17% edge, and the other puts Gingrich up by +9%.

In Georgia, Gingrich has a +5.9% edge over Obama. That’s pretty anemic, considering that (1) it is Gingrich’s home turf, and (2) the same poll puts Romney up about +8 over Obama.

Obama has modest leads over Gingrich in Missouri (+7%) and a solid (+12%) lead in Ohio.

The previous analysis gave Obama a 100% probability of beating Gingrich with Obama getting a mean of 416 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins ’em all. Obama’s average electoral vote count has increased to 421, and Gingrich averages just 117 electoral votes.

Obama Gingrich
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 421 electoral votes Mean of 117 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Mind the Gender Gap

by Carl Ballard — Friday, 2/3/12, 7:50 am

Erica C. Barnett reports on a new study on gendered disparities in public transit. And while the study didn’t apply to Puget Sound transit orgs, Barnett looks at their conclusions and at Sound Transit, finding them lacking in at least one area.

What are the implications? The Atlantic suggests that if transit agencies take women’s needs into account, they will provide easier boarding and wider aisles (for women with strollers or heavy bags) and more transit service in care-related sites, like parks, daycares, and schools. Additionally, transit agencies could include more women on their boards, the Atlantic suggests. Although Sound Transit, the regional transit agency for the Puget Sound, is led by a woman, Joni Earl, its 16-member board is dominated by men, with just four female members. (It’s all-white, too).

Also, the King County Council Transportation, Economy and Environment Committee that deals with public transportation is 2/3 men (the same makeup as the entire council) and that the chair and vice chair are both men.

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DL Des Moines sends congratulations to WA for same-sex marriage

by Darryl — Thursday, 2/2/12, 11:48 pm

When Gov. Christine Gregoire signs same-sex marriage into law the week after next, Washington state will be catching up to that uber-liberal state known as Iowa.

So when they heard the news, the Des Moines chapter of Drinking Liberally couldn’t resist teasing us a bit at the same time they sent a congratulatory message:

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Obama gains more ground on Romney

by Darryl — Thursday, 2/2/12, 10:18 pm

Update: An analysis using more recent polls can be found here.

There are three new state head-to-head polls in the Obama—Romney match up since my previous analysis. All three states are important.

The Florida poll offers Obama a +8% edge over Romney. In Missouri, Obama and Romney are tied at 45%, and in Ohio Obama leads Romney by +7%.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
FL Marist 25-Jan 27-Jan 2795 1.9 49 41 O+8
MO PPP 27-Jan 29-Jan 582 4.1 45 45 tie
OH PPP 28-Jan 29-Jan 820 3.4 49 42 O+7

All three polls reflect improvements over the previous poll in each state for Obama. It’s hard to tell if the improvements are a bump from Obama’s State of the Union address, a genuine lasting shift in public opinion, or whether voters are simply tiring of the Republican brawl.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,439 times and Romney wins 561 times (including the 30 ties).

Obama would have a 99.4% probability of winning an election held now, an improvement over his 95.1% probability in the previous analysis.

Obama Romney
99.4% probability of winning 0.6% probability of winning
Mean of 332 electoral votes Mean of 206 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

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Open Thread 2/2

by Carl Ballard — Thursday, 2/2/12, 8:02 am

– Reproductive Health and Rights Lobby Day

– Darryl noted the state senate passing the marriage equality bill. Andrew has more details including the roll call.

– And a couple bad bills fail to make it to the floor.

– In other states: Do not let the media silence fool you: Hoosiers are making noise.

– Republican Jesus supports Mitt Romney.

– Weaver ants (Oecophylla smaragdina) contend with a number of ant-like spiders that look similar enough to their favored food to avoid detection by the ant guards. They lurk around the ants’ trails, pretending to be ants and grabbing a meal when the opportunity arises.

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Sen. Ed Murray is gettin’ hitched

by Darryl — Wednesday, 2/1/12, 9:41 pm

Senate Bill 6239 that legalizes same-sex marriage, passed tonight.

The Senate was the big hurdle for this bill, pushed by Gov. Christine Gregoire as part of her final agenda as Governor.

The bill passed 28 to 21. That’s quite a shift from two weeks ago, when only 23 Senators publicly supported it.

murray_inaugural3

Sen. Ed Murray, who has fought for many years to end discrimination against same-sex couples, will now get married to his long-time partner, Michael Shiosaki.

Congrats, guys!

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Destined to be an Also-Ran

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 2/1/12, 7:12 pm

I’d like to follow up on Darryl’s piece about Darcy Burner’s polling. Specifically going after the unelectable meme. That she’s “some kind of ultra-liberal Daily Kos Manchurian Candidate destined to be an also-ran.” Darryl does good work dispelling it.

Leaving aside the Kos thing, I think you have to say that the most important factor going forward in the first is whatever Democrat gets through is going to have to earn it. The district isn’t a gimmie for anyone; it’s rather large and neither party can hold a claim to it. So I think whoever works hardest and can present a compelling vision to the voters will win.

But here’s the interesting thing to me: All of that also applies to the newly created 10th district, and many of the people who are opposed to Darcy Burner because she lost a tough race don’t seem to have any problem with Denny Heck running again. Many of the same people criticizing Burner are calling the district centered around suburban-exurban Pierce and Thurston Counties the “Denny Heck District.”

Now, it’s probably a moderately Democratic district, and one Heck should be able to win if he works hard and presents the right message. Problem is, he’s already lost in a district like that, and unlike with Burner it wasn’t to an incumbent. To be clear, I think Heck can win the 10th and Burner or any Democrat can win the 1st. But I wonder why the narratives are so different between the two of them.

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Romney family member runs away in Canada to dodge draft

by Darryl — Wednesday, 2/1/12, 11:43 am

By “Romney family member,” I mean the Romeny’s former family dog, an Irish Setter named Seamus.

Seamus achieved fame and glory during the 2008 presidential campaign cycle after one of Romney’s sons told a treasured family story:

In June 2007 the Boston Globe reported that in 1983, current Republican presidential hopeful (and former Massachusetts governor) Mitt Romney had placed his Irish setter in a dog carrier on the roof of his station wagon for a 12-hour trip to his parents’ cottage on the Canadian shores of Lake Huron. He’d built a windshield for the carrier to make the ride more comfortable for the dog. He’d also made it clear to his five sons that bathroom breaks would be taken only during predetermined stops to gas up the car.

The dog spoiled this plan by letting loose with a bout of diarrhea during its rooftop sojourn, necessitating an unplanned gas station visit for the purpose of hosing down the pooch, its carrier, and the back of the car.

There are now two competing theories on the fate of Seamus. The orthodox theory is that Seamus was eventually given to Mitt’s sister:

The Romneys eventually dealt with Seamus’s apostasy, and nervous stomach, by fobbing him off on Mitt’s sister, Jane, who lived in California and was said to have space for the dog to roam freely, unfettered by straps, crates or station wagons.

And now we have a competing theory:

Mitt Romney may not have told the whole truth about the scandalous tale of his Irish Setter, Seamus, being strapped to the roof of his car during a 12-hour family road trip to Canada. According to a trusted Politicker tipster, two of Mr. Romney’s sons had an off-record conversation with reporters where they revealed the dog ran away when they reached their destination on that infamous journey in 1983.

That’s right…Seamus became a “draft” dodger by running away in Canada.

The Obama campaign uses the incident to draw a distinction between the two men.

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Darcy Burner leads Dems in WA-1

by Darryl — Wednesday, 2/1/12, 9:45 am

The Darcy Burner campaign has released a second in-house poll for WA-1 (and accompanying memo). And it looks very good for Burner on the Democratic side.

Campaigns normally don’t release internal polls unless there is some advantage to doing so. So we’ll look at the positives, and then read between the lines for the rest.

The good new for Burner is that she leads the Democratic pack:

Among primary voters who vote for one of the Democratic candidates on the initial ballot, Darcy Burner currently leads the pack with a decisive lead. Burner leads with nearly half of the vote (45%), followed by Laura Ruderman (15%), Steve Hobbs (13%), Suzan DelBene (12%), Roger Goodman (10%), and Darshan Rauniyar (5%).

More good:

Moreover, Burner is well-regarded among primary election voters who pick a Democratic candidate in the initial ballot. More than half (54%) of these voters have a favorable opinion of Burner, while 9% have an unfavorable opinion. DelBene is less well known, with 21% of voters having a favorable impression of her. Seventeen percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Ruderman. A majority of these Democratic voters have no impression of Ruderman or DelBene, while most are familiar with Burner.

The findings are consistent with the previous internal poll released by the Burner campaign.

What these numbers tell us is that, contrary to certain media naysayer, Darcy is the front-runner among Democrats in this race.

These results debunk, what I’ll call, the Connelly meme, named after the Darcy Burner naysayer-in-chief, SeattlePI.com’s Joel Connelly. Joel has, of late, has made something of a specialization in portraying Burner as an outside interloper—as some kind of ultra-liberal Daily Kos Manchurian Candidate destined to be an also-ran. The Connelly meme is bullshit.

The new poll results bode well for Darcy Burner in a Democratic primary race.

Unfortunately, Washington state doesn’t have a Democratic primary. Rather, we have this top-two primary. And that brings me to what this poll doesn’t tell us.

Take a look at the poll methods:

These findings are based on 504 telephone interviews with a random sample of likely 2012 primary election voters in Washington’s new 1st Congressional District. Interviews were conducted from January 23-26, 2012. Sampling error is +/- 4.4%.

What we never learn is how many of the 504 interviewees chose to not select one of the Democratic candidates. There were two Republican candidates in the race when the poll was taken (one has since dropped out), yet we don’t see numbers for these candidates, or an “other” category if the pollster made a (dubious) decision to not name Republican candidates as well.

The absence of reporting on the Republican (or “other”) tally in a poll of “likely 2012 primary voters” is telling. It suggests to me that the “votes” for non-Democrats matched or exceeded those for the Democratic candidates. That is, the numbers don’t make Darcy look strong enough in a general election that the campaign was willing to release ’em.

The numbers support the idea that Darcy is the Democratic front-runner, but it leaves me feeling a little bit nervous about the prospects that any Democrat will be taking the district.

I look forward to seeing some independent polling in the race.

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