– I’m as big a McGinn supporter as you’ll find and I agree with most of this. But I don’t think either the business community or Occupy Seattle are very happy with his handling of Occupy Seattle.
– And keep in mind; we’re not talking about abortion anymore. We’re talking about birth control.
– Obama’s Spotify playlist is pretty pedestrian.
Here are a few things that came out over the weekend (i.e. too late for the Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza).
WA Senate Democrat’s Week in Review podcast:
[audio:http://www.sdc.wa.gov/podcast/ITL_2012_7.mp3]
Obama’s Weekly Address: Extending the Payroll Tax Cut for the Middle Class:
Arianna Huffington talks women’s issues on SNL.
Bill Maher on Republican’s divided America:
Last week’s contest was won by Liberal Scientist. It was Ottawa.
This week’s contest is related to a TV show or a movie. Good luck!
1 Kings 7:23
He made the Sea of cast metal, circular in shape, measuring ten cubits from rim to rim and five cubits high. It took a line of thirty cubits to measure around it.
Discuss.
I have some errands to do, so nothing substantive here, but here are the results if you want to talk about them:
Willard “Mitt” Romney ………….39%
Ron “Mitt” Paul ………………….36%
Rick “Mitt” Santorum ……………18%
Mitt “Newt” Gingrich ……………..6%
What the Koch Brothers say on-line but won’t say under oath.
Bashir: With Congressional approval at 10%, Republicans intensify anti-Obama attacks.
It began five years ago today:
Jennifer Granholm: Michigan rebounds thanks to ‘active’ leadership.
Bill Maher: New Rules.
White House: Science fair.
The Delicious G.O.P. Primary
White House: West Wing Week.
Mark Fiore: The heart and mind-o-matic.
ONN: Panel analyzes Obama’s furious, profanity-filled rant at nation.
Thom: Are politicians now SuperPAC puppets?
The Week in Marriage Equality:
Newsy: Pelosi’s “stop Colbert” spoof ad goes viral.
Pap: How the GOP war on workers backfired.
Lobbyist poses as anti-union mechanic in Superbowl advertisement.
Maddow: The absurdity of GOP legislators rallying against ideas they previously supported:
Andrew Breitbart totally loses it at Occupy protesters.
Thom with the Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ugly.
Contraceptive Choice:
An interview with Jay Inslee.
Alyona: Time for a national popular vote?
Hannity’s Bizarre Claim:
Lawrence O’Donnell: Buffoon Donald Trump thinks endorsing Romney guarantees him a position in Willard’s cabinet!.
Pres. Obama’s record on jobs:
Ed: Update on the Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) scandal.
The CPAC Funny Farm:
Sam Seder: State Sen. Constance Johnson (D-Oklahoma City) on he amendment to a Wingnut personhood bill .
Ann Telnaes: Russia and China reject U.N. resolution condemning Syria.
Obama and the marshmallow launcher.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
During the Tacoma teacher strike the Tacoma News Tribune had by far and away the best news coverage of any mainstream media source. But man alive were their editorials brain numbingly awful. Well, congrats to the Trib for keeping up that fine level of nonsense. In an editorial about how we need the kind of bullshit education reforms that haven’t worked in other states, they serve up this gem:
As usual, the Legislature’s powers-that-be crouch like defensive NFL linemen, ready to tackle anything that might challenge the failing trade-union model of public education.
I don’t have clue one what “trade-union model of public education” even means. Most of these reforms seem to be just ways to commodity children and sell them to charter school corporations regardless of performance. The rest seem to just be ways to break the union. If the I-saw-Waiting-For-Superman-and-now-I-hate-teachers crowd were serious about reform, they’d work with the teachers: they are among the most interested parties after parents and possibly students.
I mean the idea here seems to be that politicians (and editorial board writers) demagoguing the issue or bureaucrats administering tests are the ones who really care about education. Yet those politicians who’ve spent far too much time cutting education funding and the ed boards who cheered them on at every tax cut that made those cuts inevitable continue to attack, attack, attack the unions. They have far less credibility than teachers unions that have been fighting those cuts and the bullshit reforms at every step of the way.
And yet instead of working with the teachers’ unions to both fund K-12 education and make reforms that make sense, it’s attack, attack, attack. No, let’s trust teachers.
Also, “defensive NFL linemen” for serious is how you’re going to construct that phrase? Not “defensive linemen” and trust your readers to know what that means? Not “NFL defensive linemen” that at least has the advantage of not putting NFL in the middle of what the position is called for no reason?
Obama announces “an accommodation” on the birth control issue:
The “accommodation” is reasonable, and The Catholic Health Association (which was considered subversive by some Bishops during the 2009 health care debate) is “very pleased with the White House announcement”.
The original issue is complete bullshit—yet another unholy liaison between religious extremists and right wing political opportunists. As MoJo’s Nick Baumann points out, much of the policy dates back to an Equal Employment Opportunity Commission ruling back in December, 2000, that went entirely unchallenged by the Bush administration:
“It was, we thought at the time, a fairly straightforward application of Title VII principles,” a top former EEOC official who was involved in the decision told Mother Jones. “All of these plans covered Viagra immediately, without thinking, and they were still declining to cover prescription contraceptives. It’s a little bit jaw-dropping to see what is going on now…There was some press at the time but we issued guidances that were far, far more controversial.”
After the EEOC opinion was approved in 2000, reproductive rights groups and employees who wanted birth control access sued employers that refused to comply. The next year, in Erickson v. Bartell Drug Co., a federal court agreed with the EEOC’s reasoning.
So what changed? Almost nothing:
“We have used [the EEOC ruling] many times in negotiating with various employers,” says Judy Waxman, the vice president for health and reproductive rights at the National Women’s Law Center. “It has been in active use all this time. [President Obama’s] policy is only new in the sense that it covers employers with less than 15 employees and with no copay for the individual. The basic rule has been in place since 2000.”
The real issue at stake IS about religious freedom. It’s about whether an employer can impose its religious views on employees—and their bodies. It is whether individuals who work for religious-affiliated employers are required to accept their employer’s extremist views.
And, no mistake about it, a prohibition on contraception in America, in 2012, is an extremist view.
No. Individual rights to private matters of conscience—and matters of personal health—trump those of religious institutions.
The government is right to protect individuals from that institutional violence.
[Update: An analysis with more recent polling data can be found here.
I said in the previous analysis that a new poll was about to be released in South Carolina. It was. Unfortunately, they didn’t poll the presidential race. Too bad…now I’ll have to endure “I don’t believe the S.C. results” in comment threads and forums across the intertubes.
Folks, there was a recent very large (2100+ person) poll taken in South Carolina…and Obama led Romney. Maybe the pollster got unlucky; just maybe the lead was real. Either way, nobody will be surprised if the lead turns out to be transient.
With that off my chest, there are seven new polls released since the previous analysis:
| start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
| CT | Yankee Institute | 01-Feb | 02-Feb | 500 | 4.5 | 50 | 37 | O+13 |
| IL | Tribune/WGN-TV | 02-Feb | 06-Feb | 600 | 4.0 | 56 | 35 | O+21 |
| MN | SurveyUSA | 31-Jan | 02-Feb | 542 | 4.3 | 48.8 | 36.1 | O+12.7 |
| NC | PPP | 03-Feb | 05-Feb | 1052 | 3.0 | 47 | 46 | O+1 |
| OH | Rasmussen | 08-Feb | 08-Feb | 500 | 4.5 | 45 | 41 | O+4 |
| PA | Susquehanna | 02-Feb | 06-Feb | 500 | 3.5 | 43 | 45 | R+2 |
| VA | Quinnipiac | 01-Feb | 06-Feb | 1544 | 2.5 | 47 | 43 | O+4 |
We cannot profess any surprise in Obama’s lead in the Connecticut (+13%), Illinois (+21%), and Minnesota (+12.7%) races.
Two swing states weight in. Ohio gives Obama a slender +4% lead. This means Obama has led in all three Ohio polls taken this year. And in Pennsylvania, Romney has a slenderer +2% lead. Nevertheless, a Keystone poll taken a couple of weeks ago had Obama leading 41% to 30%. Since both polls are considered “current” [FAQ], they are pooled and Obama ends up on top…for now.
The South turns in a couple of pleasant surprises for Team Obama. In Virginia, Obama is up by +4% over Romney. The only other Virginia poll taken this year also has Obama up (+1).
North Carolina seems to be leaning toward Obama (+1%). There are two other NC polls taken this year. A recent Civitas poll has Romney up +9. I should point out that Civitas is a conservative think tank, but their polls were okay in 2008. An early January PPP poll in NC had Obama up by +1. But only the two most recent polls are considered “current”, so Romney leads in North Carolina.
The previous analysis found Obama with a 99.6% probability of winning an election held then, and a mean of 335 electoral votes to Romney’s 203.
With the seven new polls included, a Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama 99,804 wins and Romney 196 wins (including the 21 ties). That suggests Obama has a 99.8% probability of winning an election held now. On average, Obama gains nine additional electoral votes: 344 to Romney’s 194.
| Obama | Romney |
| 99.8% probability of winning | 0.2% probability of winning |
| Mean of 344 electoral votes | Mean of 194 electoral votes |
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Earlier today, I linked to Goldy’s piece about caucusing for Santorum. While I think that there’s a case to be made that the negative campaign and the extended primary hurt the GOP, I’m not as sold on that as he is. And Goldy is hardly unique among commentators who think that it’ll be bad for them.
In general though, I think primaries are good for the party that holds them. The continued free media for Romney and the GOP’s ideas (such as they are) are not what I’d consider wonderful. And it’ll give them time to test their messaging and build their organization in various states.
That’s more or less how it played out in 2008. I remember Democrats fretting that if Hillary Clinton didn’t drop out that the nasty campaign would destroy Obama. That obviously didn’t happen. So take it with a grain of salt when those same people talk with assurance about what a primary will do to the GOP.
The biggest thing about the 2008 primary was it got a lot of people excited about Obama or Clinton. And that excitement stayed through the election. But that really hasn’t happened in 2012 so far. I see for example that fewer people are showing up for the GOP contests, and given that the only action is on the GOP side this year, that bodes quite ill for them. I mean, who the hell is excited for Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum?
Today Horsesass.Org is participating in a Washington United for Marriage and Daily Kos blog swarm to help support the marriage equality campaign in Washington State. HA is joined by bloggers from Bilerico Project, Pam’s House Blend, Good As You, AMERICABlog Gay,the Prop 8 Trial Tracker, the Seattle Lesbian, The Bent Angle, on the-Ave, MadProfessah, HRC, Hella Bus, Step Forward, LGBT POV, FrontiersLA, the Left Shue, Peace Tree Farm and more.
This has been an incredible week! On Tuesday a three judge panel from the Ninth Circuit Federal Court of Appeals ruled Proposition 8 unconstitutional. In the majority opinion, the court wrote,”Prop 8 served no purpose, and had no effect, other than to lessen the status and human dignity of gays and lesbians in California.”
On Wednesday, the Washington State House passed a same-sex marriage bill, and now it the bill is headed to Governor Gregoire’s desk for her signature. She promised to sign the bill before Valentine’s Day!
Please click here to thank Governor Gregoire.
Governor Gregoire’s leadership was instrumental to the success of passing a marriage bill in Washington State. She not only supported the bill, but she introduced the bill. This is as much her legislation as it is our community’s legislation.
Please join us during this blog swarm to thank Governor Gregoire for her leadership and her friendship. There is little doubt our opponents will make their voices heard, but we know that together our voice for equality is so much stronger.
When our friends speak up for us, we need to speak up for our friends, so join us in thanking Governor Gregoire today!
Did you sign the thank you petition? Share it with your friends: http://wufm.it/4
– You’ll all be shocked to learn that the Weekly Standard are a bunch of war mongers.
– I’m not thrilled with Obama’s decision to give his blessing to a super PAC to support his reelection. Of course I’m not a fan of campaigning with one hand tied behind his back. But I think given American’s dislike of them (and the fact that he will be well funded anyway), he could have spun his not having one for more value than I think it will add. But I don’t think it’s hypocrisy to oppose them in principal and have one when the other side already has several.
– Goldy has picked up on the idea of messing with the GOP Caucus. I’m leaning toward Fred Karger, even though I’d vote for Obama in a general election between the two of them.
– Planned Parenthood has a lot of allies.
– And it’ll need them, because there is a hell of a lot of anti-choice crap at the state level.
– I’ve been thinking for a couple days now about the athlete I’d have play for my soul and the best I can come up with is it would have to be in an individual sport. What I’m saying is I’m not very good at this game.
– Oh, look what they’re doing with spider webs these days.
This past Monday I moderated the Cannabis Defense Coalition’s monthly public meeting for February. Here’s a short rundown of what’s been happening locally with drug law reform:
– The CDC is opposing the medical marijuana bill currently in the state Senate (SB 6265). The bill was introduced in response to the mess caused by Governor Gregoire’s veto last year. After that bill took effect, a number of smaller communities across the state were under the false impression that they could ban the 10-person collective gardens that the law allowed. And larger communities like Seattle and Tacoma were upset that dispensaries weren’t legitimized enough to start regulating them adequately.
This bill found a way to split that difference. It would allow for “non-profit patient cooperatives” that are by default legal in any county or city with more than 200,000 people, but by default illegal in any county or city with less than 200,000 people. It also allows a jurisdiction to limit the number of people in a collective garden to 3.
The CDC is concerned that access to medical marijuana will once again become extremely difficult for rural patients in the state, but that’s not their only concern. As Steve Elliott points out, the bill would also create a patient registry, a non-starter for CDC members who have major concerns about the government maintaining a list of people who are breaking federal law. This is compounded by the fact that the federal government has also been actively trying to eliminate the gun-ownership rights of medical marijuana patients.
Not mentioned by the CDC, the “Save 502” clause was removed, meaning that if a 5ng/ml limit passes along with I-502 this year, there will be no protection for patients who test above the limit for medical reasons.
– As for New Approach Washington’s I-502, it has qualified for the November ballot. Due to its DUI language, it’s still expected that a large number of medical marijuana patients will vote against the bill, and some plan to actively campaign against it. During Monday’s meeting, there was discussion about Washington State Police initiating training for how to handle marijuana DUI cases. There was also a claim that the number of marijuana DUI arrests have been going up recently, but haven’t seen any actual numbers to back that up yet.
The topic of marijuana DUI continues to be an extremely difficult political hurdle for legalization advocates. What happens in 2012 will likely dictate how future initiatives handle the topic.
– While Sensible Washington has opted out of trying to run its own statewide marijuana legalization initiative in 2012, they’ve announced that they’ll be working as part of a broad effort to pass local initiatives in various communities around the state. These initiatives will be similar to the “lowest law enforcement priority” initiatives that have already passed in Tacoma and Seattle, but will also make it illegal for local and state police to work with the federal government in the enforcement of medical marijuana laws.
– Finally, while the success of the gay marriage bill doesn’t have a direct impact on drug policy, it might have an interesting indirect one. If a referendum on the gay marriage bill is filed and makes the ballot, you could see an increase in the fundamentalist vote in November, something that might not bode well for I-502.
During the Komen debacle one thing that I was pleasantly surprised to read was Patty Murray’s reactions. Not just that she was out on the issue early and that she was quite right, but also that people actually quoted her. And not just in the local papers. I’m not entirely sure that local people are really picking up on it, but Patty Murray is sort of becoming a rock star.
I mean we all know she’s a leader on veterans’ issues and that she co-chaired the super committee. She’s also done quite a bit for health care for women, but sadly that doesn’t seem to get recognized as much locally. These are clear signs of respect from her colleagues. And it’s been happening for quite a while now.
But in many ways because she’s been quietly competent* instead of a show off, she’s not recognized as much for the things she does. I hope the old timers who talk wistfully about Scoop and Maggie realize what we have now.
Jerry Cornfield summarizes the likely trajectory of ESSB 6239, the same-sex marriage bill.
A vote should come this afternoon…watch it live on TVW.
There is something you can do before the debate and vote begins…call or email your Representatives encouraging them to support passage. Even if your Rep. already supports the legislation, a show of support is important—you can probably imagine the type of campaign opponents are undertaking right now.
You can very quickly find contact information for your Representatives here.
Update: As expected…it passed.
Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!