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HorsesAss 2004-2012

by Darryl — Thursday, 5/10/12, 3:23 pm

It was sad to read Josh Feit’s announcement of the death of Publicola yesterday. Publicola has become a daily stop for me, and an important source for certain types of news. They filled a unique niche in the Pacific Northwest mediasphere.

It seems like the success of Publicola as media emerged from pure hard work–Erica and Josh appeared to be working their asses off. They hunted down political stories with enviable energy and tenacity, and presented it in their own style.

It took some time, but the mainstream media eventually warmed up to Publicola (indeed, folks at KUOW sounded like they had lost their best friend this morning). You can only break so many stories before your competitors have to sit up, pay attention, and consider you a peer.

The good news is that it looks like Crosscut will pick up Josh and Erica in some form or another–Publicola will live awhile longer under new management. (It’s almost like Crosscut wants to become relevant or something.) I hope the Publicola part of Crosscut can be as inspired as the independent Publicola.

An interesting and not so well known side story is Goldy’s role in the gestation and birth of Publicola. There is more behind that story for Goldy to divulge….

Finally, it is only fitting to point out that today is the 8th blogoversary of HorsesAss.

Goldy started this blog on May 10th, 2004 with this first post, with its first “fuck”, first commenter, and even the first fucking troll.

Eight years later, this is post number 10,222. We’ve had something over 511,000 comments, too many “fucks” and way too many fucking trolls to count.

Thanks to you, dear reader, we still have reason to be here because, like Publicola, our “financial model” certainly isn’t providing it.

21 Stoopid Comments

Better know a (Legislative) District

by N in Seattle — Friday, 4/27/12, 4:46 pm

Over the last few months, I’ve written at length — some might say ad nauseum — about Washington’s redistricting process based on the 2010 Census:

  • A report on minority-majority Congressional Districts and why it’s absurd to try to construct one here. (The Redistricting Commission didn’t listen to me.)
  • On the mechanics and mathematics of Congressional reapportionment and how Washington earned its 10th Congressional District.
  • A “breaking” story just before the release of the nearly-final CD maps.

A few days after the last of those, upon further review of the newly-drawn map, I wrote a more reflective piece on the outcome of Congressional redistricting in Washington. My conclusion: Skeletor won the battle with Tim Ceis, and it wasn’t even close. For reasons that escape me, I posted that piece only on Peace Tree Farm, resulting in even fewer readers than my wonkery draws here on HA. That was dumb of me, wasn’t it?

Nearly everything in the above-referenced posts concerned Congressional redistricting. Which makes sense, I suppose. Changing the number of districts is always exciting, though of course it’s even more exciting (and much, much bloodier) in states that lose Congressional Districts. You can check with Dennis Kucinich on that. For the record, Washington has never experienced CD subtraction.

But redistricting affects far more than Congress. Many other jurisdictional boundaries have to be changed to account for changing demographics, from school board districts to County Council and beyond. If Seattle elected City Council by district (as it should, IMHO), those borders would have to be redrawn too. With one exception, those lower-level maps are drawn by lower-level governments.

The exception, of course, is the map of Legislative Districts, also drawn by the Redistricting Commission. While the number of LDs in Washington is constitutionally set at 49, their boundaries must be redrawn to take into account population trends over the 10 years since the last Census. LDs that had nearly identical populations in 2000 are no longer equal, and the Commission is mandated to reconstruct the legislative map to reflect those demographic trends.

The Commission had to account for more than just the statewide 14.1% increase. Had every LD added 16,948 residents (average LD population was 120,288 after the 2000 Census and would be 137,236 under this redistricting), we could have kept the old boundaries. But of course, that isn’t what happened. The population of the old 2nd LD increased by 43,337 (36.0%), while the 28th actually lost 754 residents (-0.6%).

I won’t go into the extended process by which the Commission eventually settled on the new map, except to note that it took them until 10:35pm (85 minutes before their deadline) on January 1, 2012 to convey their agreed-upon map to the Legislature. Instead, I thought it might be interesting to examine the changes in LD boundaries. Data geek, and map geek, that I am, I’ve done exactly that — creating maps showing each LD’s old boundaries, its new boundaries, and the two superimposed on each other.

The results of (some of?) my handiwork will appear here on HA soon. The questions I pose to myself — and to my colleagues here, and to the readers of HA — are:

  1. Do I report on the LDs one-by-one or in groups?
  2. Can I report on every single one of the 49 LDs without boring y’all to death?
  3. How ever we decide to do the reports, in what order should they be revealed?

I’ll answer a couple of those questions, at least to start, by writing individually on the Seattle-area LDs with open seats. I plan to begin with the 46th, followed by the 36th and the 11th. Why the 46th? Simple — it has cooler maps than the others. It’s the wow!! factor…

So, if you haven’t nodded off in boredom are drooling in breathless anticipation, stay tuned.

9 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Obama still dominates Romney

by Darryl — Friday, 4/13/12, 2:52 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 347 electoral votes Mean of 191 electoral votes

It’s settled then, Mitt Romney is the inevitable nominee who will carry the torch for Republicans into the general election. So let’s see how he’s doing against President Barack Obama.

Here are the new polls that have been released since my previous analysis two weeks ago:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA SurveyUSA 29-Mar 02-Apr 1995 2.2 61.6 30.6 O+31.0
CO PPP 05-Apr 07-Apr 542 4.2 53 40 O+13
IN Bellwether Research 26-Mar 28-Mar 503 5.0 40 49 R+9
ME Maine PRC 31-Mar 02-Apr 993 3.1 54.6 37.0 O+17.6
ME1 Maine PRC 31-Mar 02-Apr 522 4.3 60.5 33.0 O+27.5
ME2 Maine PRC 31-Mar 02-Apr 471 4.5 48.0 41.4 O+6.6
MA Rasmussen 09-Apr 09-Apr 500 4.5 51 40 O+11
MA Boston Globe 21-Mar 27-Mar 544 4.2 49 33 O+16
MI EPIC/MRA 31-Mar 03-Apr 600 4.0 48 40 O+8
MT Rasmussen 02-Apr 02-Apr 500 4.5 40 49 R+9
NV PPP 29-Mar 01-Apr 553 4.2 51 43 O+8
NH U NH 21-Mar 27-Mar 544 4.2 49 33 O+16
NJ Quinnipiac 03-Apr 09-Apr 1607 2.4 49 40 O+9
NJ Eagleton-Rutgers 21-Mar 27-Mar 601 4.3 58 31 O+27
NM Rasmussen 03-Apr 03-Apr 500 4.5 52 36 O+16
NY Siena 01-Apr 04-Apr 808 3.4 60 35 O+25
NY Quinnipiac 28-Mar 02-Apr 1597 3.0 56 33 O+23
NC Rasmussen 10-Apr 10-Apr 500 4.5 44 46 R+2
NC PPP 04-Apr 07-Apr 975 3.1 49 44 O+5
PA Muhlenberg 23-Mar 01-Apr 492 5.0 45 40 O+5
VA Roanoke College 25-Mar 05-Apr 591 4.0 40.1 45.9 R+5.8

Many of these polls are entirely unsurprising: California, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New York. Maine isn’t a surprise either. But, for the first time this election season, we have Maine Congressional District data that show Obama on track to win all of the state’s electoral votes.

Obama still leads in Pennsylvania, as he has for the previous six polls going back to early February. The Southwest swing states are sticking with Obama, with good leads for him in Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. These are states that Bush won in 2004 and Obama won in 2008. Michigan shows no love for a native son—Obama keeps the lead.

In North Carolina we have a PPP poll that gives Obama a +5 lead and a Rasmussen poll that gives Obama a -2 loss. Romney dominates in Montana; and, he leads in Indiana and Virginia, states that went for Obama in 2008. This is our first poll from Indiana, by the way.

The previous analysis showed Obama leading Romney by and average of 347 to 191 electoral votes and a 100% probability of winning an election held then.

Now, after a Monte Carlo analysis using 100,000 simulated elections using the state head-to-head polls, Obama still wins all 100,000. Obama’s average electoral vote total is still 347 to Romney’s 191.

The effective end of the Republican primary this week should mark a change in the dynamics of this race. Expect Romney’s chances to improve considerably as new polls roll in. The full effect may not be seen for another month (depending on the frequency and diversity of polling).

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

14 Stoopid Comments

Hijacking Michigan

by Darryl — Thursday, 4/5/12, 9:13 pm

Rachael Maddow has a pretty remarkable story here….

16 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Obama strengthens lead over Romney

by Darryl — Friday, 3/30/12, 7:11 pm

Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 347 electoral votes Mean of 191 electoral votes

There have been fourteen new state head-to-head polls taken since my previous analysis of the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

No big surprises in them. Obama leads Romney in the three classic swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania poll and Ohio (twice). Obama also leads in Virginia and three Wisconsin polls. On the other hand, Nebraska CD 2 has swing slightly in favor of Romney.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AR Talk Business-Hendrix College 26-Mar 26-Mar 759 3.6 33.0 56.5 R+23.5
CT Quinnipiac 14-Mar 19-Mar 1622 2.4 53 37 O+16
FL Quinnipiac 20-Mar 26-Mar 1228 2.8 49 42 O+7
MA PPP 16-Mar 18-Mar 936 3.2 58 35 O+23
NE PPP 22-Mar 25-Mar 1028 3.1 39 51 R+12
NE1 PPP 22-Mar 25-Mar 432 — 41 49 R+8
NE2 PPP 22-Mar 25-Mar 277 — 45 46 R+1
NE3 PPP 22-Mar 25-Mar 319 — 31 57 R+26
NH ARG 15-Mar 18-Mar 557 4.2 48 41 O+7
OH Rasmussen 26-Mar 26-Mar 500 4.5 48 40 O+8
OH Quinnipiac 20-Mar 26-Mar 1246 2.8 47 41 O+6
OR SurveyUSA 14-Mar 19-Mar 1615 2.5 49.8 38.8 O+11.0
PA Quinnipiac 20-Mar 26-Mar 1232 2.8 45 42 O+3
VA PPP 20-Mar 20-Mar 500 4.5 51 42 O+9
WI Rasmussen 27-Mar 27-Mar 500 4.5 52 41 O+11
WI Marist 26-Mar 27-Mar 1400 2.6 52 35 O+17
WI Marquette Law School 22-Mar 25-Mar 707 — 48.2 43.2 O+4.9

The previous analysis had Obama leading Romney by an average of 339 to 199 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 347 to Romney’s 191 electoral votes.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

6 Stoopid Comments

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 3/27/12, 5:22 pm

DLBottleMercifully, there is no new episode of the Primary Reality Show this evening. But a certain case being argued before the Supreme Court will be to talk of the tavern.

So please join us tonight for an evening of jurisprudence under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. We’ll begin at our usual starting time of 8:00pm, but some folks will show up even earlier for dinner.








Can’t make it to Seattle? There are DLs meeting all around Washington state, including in the Tri-Cities and Bellingham tonight, Burien on Wednesday night, as well as Yakima and South Bellevue next Monday.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

42 Stoopid Comments

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 3/23/12, 11:52 pm

Thom: Paul Ryan’s budget—most extreme corporate welfare.

Mark Fiore: iWhine.

Young Turks: Man sues Secret Service over Cheney “assault”.

White House: We the People — Your voice in our government.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Etch-a-Sketching:

  • Some things you can’t shake off.
  • Lawrence O’Donnell: Sketchy.
  • Even Mitt Romney knows an Etch-a-sketch can’t erase his extreme positions
  • Young Turks: The Etch-a-sketch disaster.
  • Maddow: Mitt and lying:
  • Mitt Romney: Unshakably Extreme.
  • Newsy: Romney’s campaign stimulating jobs in Ohio.
  • Sam Seder: The real Mitt Romney is an Etch-a-Sketch
  • Mitt Romney’s bad day

President Obama nominates Dr. Jim Yong Kim for World Bank President.

Thom with even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Greenman: Michael Mann’s hockey stick under oath.

Jon on Cable News.

Ann Telnaes: The Going-Nowhere strategy in Afghanistan.

The Republican Primary Jousting Contest:

  • Young Turks: Is Rick Santorum Opus Dei?
  • Ed: Romney gives George Bush credit for saving economy
  • Actual Audio: Santorum versus Romney.
  • Ann Telnaes: Santorum’s higher calling.
  • Ed: Obama derangement syndrome.

Thom: Westboro Baptist Church’s Rush advertisement.

Health Reform in Action: One mother’s story:

Susie Sampson’s Tea Party Report: Porn-con.

Ann Telnaes: Second anniversary of the Health Care law.

Young Turks: Five worst things about the G.O.P. Ryan budget.

Sam Seder: “Katherine Harris” talks Occupy, Joe the Plumber’s campaign & more!

ONN: Joad Cressbeckler denies he incited mob to drag Congressman through briar patch.

Newsy: Congress hires their relatives.

Thom: Why is Tennessee teaching creationism?

Greenman: The search forLord Monckton.

More Skirmishes in the Republican War on Women™:

  • Mitt to Women: You’re on your own.
  • Maddow: Idaho’s forced transvaginal ultrasound bill, and other news in the G.O.P. culture wars.
  • Mitt Romney vows to get rid of Planned Parenthood
  • What women need to know about Mitt Romney.
  • Maddow: Governor Ultrasound.
  • Young Turks: The War on Women.

Health care reform across the country.

Alyona: Worst Proposed Internet laws of 2012.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Young Turks: Ryan’s budget, Zimmerman defenders and other topics.

White House: West Wing Week.

Death by Hoodie:

  • Young Turks: President Obama on Trayvon Martin.
  • Alyona’s Tool Time: Geraldo ‘Hoodie’ killed Trayvon Martin.
  • Sharpton: Trayvon could have been any one of our sons
  • Olbermann and Prof. Turley: the danger of Florida’s ‘Stand Your Ground’ law
    .
  • Young Turks: Trayvon Martin smear attempt by Glenn Beck’s web site.
  • Sam Seder: Geraldo Rivera blame Hoodies for Trayvon Martin killing.
  • Pap and Ed: Did police blow chance of conviction with Zimmerman?
  • Newsy: Florida shooting putting gun laws in the spotlight.
  • Alyona’s Fireside Friday: Trayvon Martin.
  • Young Turks: TYT crew dress to die.

Ed: The return of Coupon Care.

Conversations with Valerie Plame and Joseph Wilson:

Maddow: Obama nominates true humanitarian for World Bank.

Jimmy Kimmel with some unnecessary censorship.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

42 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Obama still leads but Santorum does better than Romney

by Darryl — Friday, 3/23/12, 5:02 pm


Obama Santorum
99.7% probability of winning 0.3% probability of winning
Mean of 329 electoral votes Mean of 209 electoral votes

There have been 17 new polls released since my last analysis of the state head-to-head polls with President Barack Obama against Rick Santorum:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O S diff
AZ Rasmussen 13-Mar 13-Mar 500 4.5 44 45 S+1
CT Quinnipiac 14-Mar 19-Mar 1622 2.4 55 35 O+20
FL Rasmussen 13-Mar 13-Mar 500 4.5 45 43 O+2
ME PPP 02-Mar 04-Mar 1256 2.8 58 35 O+23
MA PPP 16-Mar 18-Mar 936 3.2 61 29 O+32
MO Rasmussen 14-Mar 15-Mar 500 4.5 42 51 S+9
NE Rasmussen 05-Mar 05-Mar 500 4.5 37 49 S+12
NH ARG 15-Mar 18-Mar 557 4.2 48 37 O+11
NJ Fairleigh Dickinson U 05-Mar 11-Mar 800 3.5 54 33 O+21
NM Rasmussen 14-Feb 14-Feb 500 4.5 55 37 O+18
NY Siena 26-Feb 29-Feb 808 3.4 64 30 O+34
NC PPP 08-Mar 11-Mar 804 3.5 49 44 O+5
OR SurveyUSA 14-Mar 19-Mar 1615 2.5 49.3 39.5 O+9.8
PA PPP 08-Mar 12-Mar 564 4.1 48 46 O+2
PA Quinnipiac 07-Mar 12-Mar 1256 2.8 45 44 O+1
VA PPP 20-Mar 20-Mar 500 4.5 53 39 O+14
VA Quinnipiac 13-Mar 18-Mar 1034 3.1 49 40 O+9

The most interesting result is that Obama leads in both Pennsylvania polls—that is, in Santorum’s home state. Obama also has a small lead in Florida.

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Santorum by a mean of 338 to 200 electoral votes, and a 100% probability of winning an election held then.

Today’s Monte Carlo analysis employing 100,000 simulated elections, gives Obama 99,695 wins to Santorum 305 wins (including the 45 ties). Obama receives (on average) 329 to Santorum’s 209 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.7% probability, Santorum would win with a 0.3% probability of winning.

Remarkably, Santorum is doing better against Obama than Mitt Romney was two days ago, where Obama had a 100% probability of winning with a mean of 339 to Romney’s 199 electoral votes.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

10 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Obama leads Romney

by Darryl — Wednesday, 3/21/12, 3:52 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 339 electoral votes Mean of 199 electoral votes

It’s been a couple of weeks since I’ve posted one of these analyses. Pollsters have been rather focused on the G.O.P. primary and not so much on the general election, so there have only been twelve new state head-to-head polls to incorporate into a new analysis.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ Rasmussen 13-Mar 13-Mar 500 4.5 40 51 R+11
FL Rasmussen 13-Mar 13-Mar 500 4.5 46 43 O+3
ME PPP 02-Mar 04-Mar 1256 2.8 58 35 O+23
MO Rasmussen 14-Mar 15-Mar 500 4.5 41 50 R+9
NE Rasmussen 05-Mar 05-Mar 500 4.5 35 52 R+17
NJ Fairleigh Dickinson U 05-Mar 11-Mar 800 3.5 50 37 O+13
NM Rasmussen 14-Feb 14-Feb 500 4.5 55 36 O+19
NY Siena 26-Feb 29-Feb 808 3.4 60 34 O+26
NC PPP 08-Mar 11-Mar 804 3.5 49 46 O+3
PA PPP 08-Mar 12-Mar 689 4.1 49 42 O+7
PA Quinnipiac 07-Mar 12-Mar 1256 2.8 46 40 O+6
VA Quinnipiac 13-Mar 18-Mar 1034 3.1 50 42 O+8

The three new polls from two traditional swing states all favor Obama, with +3% in Florida and +6% & +7% in Pennsylvania.

The good news for Obama comes from three states that went for Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008: New Mexico where Obama has a remarkable +19% lead, Virginia where Obama is up by +8%, and North Carolina where Obama has ekes out a +3%.

The good news for Romney is Missouri, which McCain barely won in 2008, and that has now swung to the right: Romney leads Obama by a solid +9%.

The previous Monte Carlo analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by an average of 341 to 197 electoral votes, and 100% probability of winning an election held then.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins every time, so he is still expected to win an election held now with 100% probability. Obama receives an average of 339 to Romney’s 199 electoral votes.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

14 Stoopid Comments

Super Tuesday Open Thread

by Darryl — Tuesday, 3/6/12, 5:11 pm

Game on! Have at it in the comment thread.

5:11 (PDT): Okay…so I just got here and I haven’t gotten situated yet. But on the way here I heard that Mitt has likely won Virginia, Vermont, and Massachusetts. No surprises here. Vermont is a suburb of Massachusetts, where Romney was Governor. And in Vermont, the polls in February and early March had Romney up by 30 to 50 points. Of course, Santorum and Newt didn’t qualify for the ballot, so Romney’s strong lead was over Ron Paul.

5:17: Newt wins Georgia. No surprise there, either—he represented Georgia. They hated him less as Mr. Speaker than the rest of America.

5:21: I’m listening to the NPR live coverage but watching MSNBC on the TV.

5:22: Mitt Romney is up by only some 4,000 votes in Ohio, with 7% counted.

5:26: Newt promises $2.50 a gallon gasoline. When will Newt Gingrich promise that, as President, he will completely prevent tornado deaths?

5:29: Romney is up 74% in Massachusettes. Newt is at 4% there. In Georgia, Newt is at 48%, Romney is at 22%. Does this mean that Newt is hated outside his home turf more than Romney?

5:34: On NPR they are wondering why Santorum isn’t “cleaning up” with the Catholic vote. Why is Romney winning more of the Catholic vote [in every primary so far] than Santorum? Two words: Catholic Women.

5:36: Former Georgia congressman Bob Barr (2008 Libertarian nominee for PUSA) is on NPR. He is trying to argue that Newt’s campaign isn’t Quixotic. His argument: “Newt has big ideas.” Most Republicans view that as The Problem.

5:40: Wife #3 is introducing Newt for his Georgia victory speech. NPR doesn’t care.

5:41: Not unexpected: Rick Santorum is the projected winner of Tennessee. All but one recent poll had Santorum winning. The outlier had Romney up by +1. The real issue is why the hell didn’t Gingrich do better in a Southern state? (Answer: Americans hate Gingrich more than just about any politician.)

5:45: The NPR pundits keep talking about how Mitt Romney wins among more educated and affluent demographics, and Rick Santorum wins among poorer and less educated demographics. Answer: Santorum appeals to the Stupid.

5:49: It looks like Oklahoma is now being called for Santorum…which just goes to show. Oklahoma your NOT okay!

5:54: In another “election” of interest, Netflix has become the 30th advertiser to drop Rush Limbaugh like a hot Santorum-seasoned potato.

5:59: Is Gingrich still fucking speaking? Or is MSNBC playing the same speech over and over again? Either way, it exceeds the ideas-absorbing capacity of most Homo sapiens.

6:02: Regarding Ohio: I know a Santorum win here would maximize the primary chaos, but I’m secretly hoping for a dead tie. Does that make me a bad person?

6:06: Whooot!!! Santorum just oozed into the lead in Ohio…up by ~2500 6407 votes.

6:23: Huh…NPR is carrying Santorum’s victory speech, but they only gave a few seconds of excerpts of Newt Gingrich’s victory speech.

6:46: And NPR carries Mitt Romney’s speech. I guess Newt Gingrich is chopped liver. Hmmm…actually, that seems about right.

6:58: I love the fact that MSNBC is carrying Mitt Romney’s speech with the right hand side of the screen showing he is getting his ass wiped by Santorum in Ohio (pun not intended).

7:32: Michael Moore is gesticulating all over MSNBC. He is clean shaven tonight…clearly, that was inspired by Breitbart’s demise.

7:40: Romney is putting the squeeze on Santorum in Ohio…down to 6,000 votes from a max of 15,000.

7:46: Man…Ohio is just the pinnacle of entertainment. Mitt Romney is closing up from behind on Santorum.

8:01: I went to Ron Paul’s web site this evening, ready to make a donation. Of course, I would only consider donating in gold. After going through the long registration process, the fucking site wanted a credit card number or paypal account. What the fuck?

8:06: Ohio is now down to a difference of 1,300 or so. PLEASE people, PRAY FOR A TIE!

63 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Santorum improves, Obama still leads

by Darryl — Tuesday, 3/6/12, 2:43 pm


Obama Santorum
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 338 electoral votes Mean of 200 electoral votes

Just in time for Super Tuesday, here is an analysis of the current and most recent state head-to-head polls in the race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Rick Santorum with a mean of 356 electoral votes to Santorum’s 182.

There have been 22 new polls since then. I’ve included them in a Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated election. Obama wins all 100,000. An election held now would be won by Obama with near certainty.

Obama receives (on average) 338 to Santorum’s 200 electoral votes. That’s right…Rick Santorum is doing better against Obama than he did a couple of weeks ago. He still loses, but not a badly.

What is interesting, however, is that Santorum, at 200 electoral votes, is slightly stronger against Obama than Mitt Romney with 197 electoral votes. The change reflects Romney slipping against Obama and Santorum coming in a little stronger against Obama in some states.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

5 Stoopid Comments

Poll Analysis: Obama has solid lead over Romney

by Darryl — Tuesday, 3/6/12, 2:26 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 341 electoral votes Mean of 197 electoral votes

It’s been awhile since I’ve posted one of these. That analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 331 to 207 electoral votes and with a 99.9% probability of winning.

Some 23 new polls have trickled out since then. I’ll skip the details (you can get to the polling data from the big table below). With these new polls weighing in, a Monte Carlo analysis gives Obama 100,000 wins out of 100,000 simulated elections. This implies that, in an election held now, Obama would have a near-100% chance of winning. Obama has gained +10 electoral votes for an average of 341 to Romney’s 197.

Obama likely wins the “big three,” Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, as well as Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Virginia. Still no new polls in South Carolina, so the state is still blue based on the early December poll.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

5 Stoopid Comments

Congrats Fred

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 2/29/12, 5:19 pm

As some of you know, I’m planning to caucus with the Republicans for Fred Karger, by far the least objectionable. Pro choice, pro marriage equality, he’s actually not horrible on a lot of things. But he’s a solid Republican, and so in a general, I’d still prefer Obama to him.

But I don’t really expect him to win. Thus caucusing for Karger is more to send a message to the GOP that no, it doesn’t have to be that way. You can change. That while we can have reasonable disagreements about economic policy, they don’t need to demonize women and gay people.

Anyway, it’s somewhat impressive that Fred got well over 1000 votes in Michigan.

27 Stoopid Comments

Presidents as investments

by Darryl — Wednesday, 2/22/12, 11:10 pm

You know that nut-job uncle of yours who keeps forwarding shit to your email about how Obama is a Muslim trying to take away our guns and hand America over to the UN? Yeah…that guy?

Now suppose you engaged in an economic game with him beginning in the early 1960s. You each would invest $1,000 in the stock market. But he would do so only during the terms of Republican Presidents. You would do so only during the terms of Democratic presidents. Who’d be ahead today?

Clearly your Uncle would be wiping your socialist ass with the help of Republican Presidents and their laissez-faire, free market, capitalist policies. Right?

Um…not so much:

Stock-chart

Uncle Billy-Bob: $2,087
You: $10,920

(And Billy-Bob has almost five extra years of investment on you. )

Any questions?

20 Stoopid Comments

Obama v. Santorum — 2012


Obama Santorum
99.7% probability of winning 0.3% probability of winning
Mean of 329 electoral votes Mean of 209 electoral votes

There have been 17 new polls released since my last analysis of the state head-to-head polls with President Barack Obama against Rick Santorum:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O S diff
AZ Rasmussen 13-Mar 13-Mar 500 4.5 44 45 S+1
CT Quinnipiac 14-Mar 19-Mar 1622 2.4 55 35 O+20
FL Rasmussen 13-Mar 13-Mar 500 4.5 45 43 O+2
ME PPP 02-Mar 04-Mar 1256 2.8 58 35 O+23
MA PPP 16-Mar 18-Mar 936 3.2 61 29 O+32
MO Rasmussen 14-Mar 15-Mar 500 4.5 42 51 S+9
NE Rasmussen 05-Mar 05-Mar 500 4.5 37 49 S+12
NH ARG 15-Mar 18-Mar 557 4.2 48 37 O+11
NJ Fairleigh Dickinson U 05-Mar 11-Mar 800 3.5 54 33 O+21
NM Rasmussen 14-Feb 14-Feb 500 4.5 55 37 O+18
NY Siena 26-Feb 29-Feb 808 3.4 64 30 O+34
NC PPP 08-Mar 11-Mar 804 3.5 49 44 O+5
OR SurveyUSA 14-Mar 19-Mar 1615 2.5 49.3 39.5 O+9.8
PA PPP 08-Mar 12-Mar 564 4.1 48 46 O+2
PA Quinnipiac 07-Mar 12-Mar 1256 2.8 45 44 O+1
VA PPP 20-Mar 20-Mar 500 4.5 53 39 O+14
VA Quinnipiac 13-Mar 18-Mar 1034 3.1 49 40 O+9

The most interesting result is that Obama leads in both Pennsylvania polls—that is, in Santorum’s home state. Obama also has a small lead in Florida.

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Santorum by a mean of 338 to 200 electoral votes, and a 100% probability of winning an election held then.

Today’s Monte Carlo analysis employing 100,000 simulated elections, gives Obama 99,695 wins to Santorum 305 wins (including the 45 ties). Obama receives (on average) 329 to Santorum’s 209 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would be expected to win with a 99.7% probability, Santorum would win with a 0.3% probability of winning.

Remarkably, Santorum is doing better against Obama than Mitt Romney was two days ago, where Obama had a 100% probability of winning with a mean of 339 to Romney’s 199 electoral votes.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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