Goldy

Polls don’t close in Wisconsin for another 15 minutes, but early exit polls already suggest a good night for Obama. That said, I wouldn’t trust the early exit polls as far as I could spit.

I don’t think there were any early exit polls in WA’s Republican primary, because frankly, nobody cares.

UPDATE [6:01 PM]:
That was fast. Within seconds of the polls closing, the networks called Wisconsin for McCain. No surpise there. They haven’t called the Democratic primary yet, but acknowledge exit polls suggesting an Obama lead.

UPDATE [6:14 PM]:
I’m listening to McCain’s speech now. Man he lives in a scary world. Did you know there are monsters living underneath your bed? Monsters! And McCain promises to win the War on Scary Monsters. Good for him.

UPDATE [6:19 PM]:
Thank God McCain kept tonight’s speech to under 15 minutes. McCain came out against deceiving Americans with eloquence. No chance that happened tonight.

UPDATE [6:24 PM]:
The networks just called Wisconsin for Obama. Again, no surprise, but I am curious why it took them 22 minutes to call Wisconsin for Obama, based on exit polls, whereas it only took them a few seconds to call it for McCain. Makes Obama’s victory seem less decisive than McCain’s, even though it is likely they’ll both get around the same percentage of the vote. I’m just sayin’.

UPDATE [6:30 PM]:
Hillary Clinton is speaking now from Youngstown Ohio. She’s putting on a pretty good face despite having lost her 9th primary/caucus in a row. She wants to get America back to work, and apparently “the best words in the world aren’t enough.”

UPDATE [6:37 PM]:
Clinton’s audience is putting on a good face too, but they just don’t sound genuinely enthusiastic. MSNBC is about to interrupt her speech to air Obama’s. I think that tells you everything you need to know about the state of this race.

UPDATE [6:47 PM]:
That was a power play, Obama knocking Clinton off both CNN and MSNBC. And he made a point of mentioning the “twenty thousand” people in the audience in Houston TX. And he’s just spent most of the first five minutes delivering a call to action. Honestly, if I knew absolutely nothing about this race, and just happened to flip the TV on at 6PM tonight, I’d just assume that Obama was by far the front runner.

UPDATE [7:05 PM]:
This is not only Obama’s 9th victory in a row, it is his 9th victory in a row by double digit margins. Currently, he leads Clinton in Wisconsin from 56% to 43% with 22% of precincts reporting, a 13-point margin. By historical standards, that’s generally considered a landslide.

UPDATE [7:12 PM]:
Obama “wants to end a politics based on fear.” Was he referring to McCain’s speech tonight? If so, I just don’t trust him to fight the War on Scary Monsters.

UPDATE [7:19 PM]:
“Hope is the thing with feathers.” I keep hoping Obama will say that, but he never does. And just curious, but the networks do realize that Obama is delivering his standard stump speech to the crowd in Houston, rather than a relatively brief victory speech, and that this thing is likely to go for a good 50 to 60 minutes?

UPDATE [7:26 PM]:
Obama closed a little early; only 45 minutes. The one new thing that I take away from this speech is that he’s now running against McCain not Clinton. The folks on CNN are complaining that Obama’s speech was too long, but when you have 20,000 people packed into an arena, waiting for hours, you don’t cut the show short.

UPDATE [7:44 PM]:
60% of the vote in and Obama still leads Clinton 56% to 43%. Meanwhile, over at (u)SP, Eric “feels dirty“, Stefan is “unenthusiastic” and Jim was reduced to quoting Sylvester Stallone in support of McCain. You can just feel the excitement.

UPDATE [8:18 PM]:
18 minutes after the poll closed, none of the networks have bothered calling the Washington state primary for McCain. Or even mention it. That’s because, I’m guessing, they didn’t even bother to pay for exit polls. Turnout, by the way, is projected to be very low.

UPDATE [8:34 PM]:
When the night is done, Obama will record more votes in Wisconsin than McCain, Huckabee and Paul combined. And, um… so will Clinton. Wisconsin, FYI, is usually considered a swing state.

UPDATE [9:36 PM]:
After their drubbing in the Washington state Democratic caucus, the Clinton folks had been hoping our beauty contest of a primary might at least provide some sort of moral victory. I’m not so sure it’s gonna work out that way. With 53% of the vote in, Obama now leads Clinton 50% to 47%… but that’s with only a few percent of King County precincts reporting. Obama should do better in King County than much of the rest of the state, and I’m guessing his margin of victory will spread as more votes come in. For whatever that’s worth.

Meanwhile on the Republican side, where the primary results will actually be used to apportion delegates, McCain is winning by a comfortable margin, but is still garnering less than 50% of the vote. Hell, Mitt Romney, who dropped out weeks ago, is still getting 20% of the vote. I think that says something about the disaffection amongst rank and file Republicans for their putative nominee.

UPDATE [10:00 PM]:
In the most significant race of the night, Obama now leads Clinton 59% to 41% with 96% of precincts reporting… an 18 point margin. Still no word out of the Hawaii caucus, and I’m not sure I’m gonna stay up late enough to follow it.

UPDATE [7:26 AM] (from Geov):
According to the Honolulu Advertiser (it’s a newspaper) Obama wins Hawai’i 76% to 24%, all precincts reporting.

The Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight (and every Tuesday), 8PM at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Stop on by for some hoppy beer and hopped up conversation.

I won’t be there tonight, but Open Left’s Matt Stoller apparently will, so there will be more than enough blogger mojo to make up for my absence.

Not in Seattle? Liberals will also be drinking tonight in the Tri-Cities. A full listing of Washington’s thirteen Drinking Liberally chapters is available here.

We hear a lot from editorialists and columnists about the supposed virtues of bipartisanship, and so you’d think our local media elite would have echoed Darryl’s call to cross the aisle and join our friends in the GOP in helping to select the next Republican nominee for President. And yet nary a peep. Huh. Hypocrites.

As for me, I long ago decided to embrace Republican values — at least for one day — and vote for Mitt Romney in Washington’s primary. They way I figure it, he’s the perfect Republican for a visiting Democrat like me: I’m Pro-Choice, he’s sometimes Pro-Choice… I’m soft on immigration, he’s sometimes soft on immigration… he’s a Mormon, KIRO is owned by Mormons (a little brown-nosing might not get me back on the air, but it couldn’t hurt.) So who better to symbolize a Democrat’s one-day embrace of Republicanism than a “conservative” Republican who said and did all the right things to get himself elected governor of a liberal, Democratic state like Massachusetts?

And that’s why I’m swearing my loyalty to the GOP — for one day only — and casting a vote in today’s Republican primary for Mike Huckabee. It is, after all, a Romney Republican’s prerogative to change one’s mind.

Or at least I would be voting for Huckabee, if I were registered vote-by-mail, or I hadn’t gone out of of town at the last minute and missed the election. Ah well, I guess this wannabe oath breaker will just have to watch the results from afar.

As for those of you who insist that there is something untoward about caucusing for the Democrats and primarying for the Republicans, I can only respond that if you really cared about the purity of the nomination process you wouldn’t cling to your childish, bullshit objections to party registration. Yeah, I voted for Ellen Craswell in our blanket gubernatorial primary… and four years later I voted for John Carlson. That’s not manipulating the system, that is the system, and if you don’t like it, change it! A week and a half ago 250,000 passionate Democrats gave up a couple hours of their time on a sunny Saturday afternoon to engage in politics at its most grassroots… so why the fuck should a bunch of dithering, holier than thou, self-proclaimed “Independents” get equal say in choosing our nominee? (Hint: they shouldn’t.)

There are a lot of things wrong about our nominating process in Washington state and nationwide, but party registration is not one of them. And if it takes violating a bullshit oath to cast a vote for Mike Huckabee to help prove that, well so be it.

No, it’s got nothing to do with politics, but who doesn’t enjoy a really elaborate prank?

Breaking news from Postman: apparently, Dave Reichert is running for Congress!

In other Congressional news, Reichert will get some big-name help to start his re-election fundraising. First Lady Laura Bush will headline an event Feb. 27th for Reichert in Medina.

So, the million bucks Reichert has raised thus far, and last August’s high-donor event with the First Lady’s husband… none of that counts as fundraising? Is Reichert challenging Mike McGavick for the WA state record for most campaign kickoffs?

“Most people know me as a football player, but I was also in social studies class.”

Introducing Brock Olivo, former University of Missouri football star, and newly minted Republican candidate for Missouri’s 9th Congressional District. Really.

During the last campaign cycle, local Republicans took to criticizing their opponents’ support from Progressive Majority as evidence of some sinister, out of district plot, but really, their most important contribution to any campaign is the kind of hands on candidate training that helps you avoid coming off as a total blathering doofus… like you know, Brock Olivo. (I think Camp Wellstone just found themselves a new training video on how not to conduct an interview.)

Speaking of which, Progressive Majority is bringing Wellstone Action’s Advanced Candidate and Campaign Management School to Federal Way, April 25-27, and a few spots are still available. Click here for more info.

Shit… this guy is fast becoming the Michael Dell of campus shootings…

The online gun dealer who sold a weapon to the Virginia Tech shooter said it was an unnerving coincidence that he also sold handgun accessories to the man who killed five students at Northern Illinois University.

Eric Thompson said his Web site sold two empty 9 mm Glock magazines and a Glock holster to Steven Kazmierczak on Feb. 4, just 10 days before the 27-year-old opened fire in a classroom and killed five before committing suicide. Another Web site run by Thompson’s company also sold a Walther .22-caliber handgun to Seung-Hui Cho, who killed 32 people in April on the Virginia Tech campus before killing himself.

“I’m still blown away by the coincidences,” Thompson said Friday. “I’m shaking. I can’t believe somebody would order from us again and do this.”

Yeah… because who’d ever imagine that a hand gun might be used for shooting people? What are the odds?

With President Bush’s job approval ratings consistently hovering around 30-percent, the standard Republican retort is that the ratings of the Democratic controlled Congress are even lower. Of course, there are two parties in Congress, and so it begs the question whether voters are a bit more discerning in attributing responsibility for their profound sense of disappointment…

According to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Feb. 8-10, 2008, only 41% of adults likely to vote this November say they would support the Republican candidate running in their congressional district. Fifty-five percent say they would vote for the Democratic candidate.

The current 14-point margin in favor of the Democrats among likely voters is one of the highest Gallup has seen in recent years, along with two others late in the 2006 campaign.

Of course the election is still a long way off, and that margin could fluctuate wildly between now and November, but a similar result during the final days of the campaign would almost surely predict significant Democratic pickups in the House. And with Democrats holding substantial advantages in both voter enthusiasm and party identification (the Republicans lowest score in 20 years,) a second wave election remains a definite possibility.

One of the knocks against Darcy Burner we’ve frequently heard from concern trolls and self-soothing Reichertphiles is that if she couldn’t ride the big blue wave to victory in 2006, she doesn’t stand a chance against the two-term incumbent in 2008, an analysis that purposefully ignores a host of factors working in her favor the second time around. Near parity in name ID, a widening fundraising advantage, shifting suburban demographics, presidential year turnout and potentially long coattails emanating from the top of the ticket all lead me to believe that with or without a wave, Burner will be in a significantly stronger position in November than she was during her 2006 nail biter. And now it seems likely that she’ll have a second chance to ride that wave.

So how much weight does Rep. Dave Reichert carry with his Republican colleagues? Well, you know Rep. Jo Bonner… the guy they gave that coveted Appropriations seat to…?

On Feb. 11, Bonner publicly endorsed Airbus over Boeing for the contract to replace the Air Force’s aging fleet of air refueling tankers.

So not only doesn’t Reichert get the pork seat he needs “now”, they give it to someone who just 3 days before publicly endorsed sucking pork out of Reichert’s district. Um… what was that the Seattle Times wrote in endorsing Reichert in 2006?

His goal should be to expand his influence and be a stronger voice for change.

Hey Frank… how’s that working out for you?

Whenever we post anything on the race between Darcy Burner and Dave Reichert for WA’s 8th CD, my comment thread fills up, almost without exception, with nasty trolls belittling Burner and her chances this November. But yesterday’s posts were different. Only one comment out of 50 was even remotely trollish, and even at that expressed an uncharacteristic air of resignation…

So I’m going to have to endure at least 2 years of Dumbass Darcy. Yuck.

Now perhaps our trolls are just hopeless romantics, and as such were too busy serenading their sweethearts on Valentines Day to spew their usual bile into the threads. Nah… that can’t be it. No, I’m guessing that despite their rabid readership of this blog they claim to hate, and their obvious dislike of all things both Darcy and Democratic, that air of resignation is real — for even the whackiest of wingnuts can occasionally sense reality creeping up on them, and man, reality doesn’t look too good for the folks on the other side right now.

The typical defense of Reichert has always been an attack on Burner, but the trolls seem to be losing the heart even for that… and why shouldn’t they, as Reichert’s vulnerabilities as a candidate continue to be exposed outside the careful coddling of a Republican majority? But even more discouraging to local R’s must be the dawning realization that Burner isn’t a one hit wonder, and that her 2008 campaign is gonna be at least as competitive as her come from nowhere challenge in 2006.

Reichert’s fundraising numbers suck; he’s lazy and arrogant and unaccustomed to putting the kind of work into campaigning expected in swing districts, even of incumbents. We all know that. But Burner continues to impress, establishing herself as one of only a handful of Democratic challengers to achieve superstar status amongst both netroots activists like me, and the DC establishment.

“Dumbass Darcy”…? Not so much. Indeed according to Congressional Quarterly, Burner has made the list of Top Ten challengers from either party in both total receipts ($874,000 for 7th place) and cash on hand ($607,000 for 5th place.) And she’s one of only four Democrats to make it onto both lists. And, she’s done all that while garnering over 88% of her money from individual contributors (compared to only 59% for Reichert.)

It’s gonna be a tough reelection for Reichert… and even the trolls are starting to admit it.

A hotly contested Republican seat on the House Appropriations Committee will go to Rep. Jo Bonner of Alabama, rebuffing a desperate plea from a cash-starved Rep. Dave Reichert that “I need a seat now.”

Coming off a disappointing pathetic fundraising quarter in which the two-term incumbent now trails challenger Darcy Burner $607K to $463K in cash on hand, Reichert had hoped an Appropriations seat would fill his campaign coffers with earmark goodies, while bringing home some bacon to hungry 8th CD voters, and argued that he needed the assignment to help secure his slipping hold on the district. Apparently, House Republican leaders don’t think he’s worth saving.

Also jilted in a bid for appropriations was NRCC chair, Rep. Tom Cole, the man Reichert will have to rely on for party cash. We’ll see if Cole, rumored to be miffed at Reichert’s challenge, comes through for Dave in the clutch, the way the NRCC did big-time back in the closing weeks of both the 2004 and 2006 campaigns.

Initiative whore Tim Eyman has so little respect for the government that he routinely refuses to comply with even the most basic campaign disclosure requirements. Back in 2004 I joined a complaint alleging Eyman routinely violated state law by filing late and misleading disclosure reports; Tim eventually agreed to a small fine, and was warned never to let happen again.

Well… he’s let it happen again, this time filing no contribution or expenditure reports for his latest for-profit initiative. Steve Zemke has filed a fresh PDC complaint, and dollars to donuts this costs Tim some money.

House Republicans, pissed at the Dems for planning to vote today on contempt citations against Harriet Miers and Josh Bolton, have been disrupting proceedings throughout the day by calling a series of procedural protest votes that do absolutely nothing but eat up time. Childish, huh? Well earlier today Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balert (R-FL) called a motion to adjourn, right in the middle of the memorial service for the late Rep. Tom Lantos, the only Holocaust survivor ever to serve in Congress, forcing members to file out of the service and onto the floor to cast their vote, or risk having the House shut down for the day.

CSPAN provided split-screen coverage of the memorial service continuing, as House members filed into the chamber to cast their votes on this purely obstructionist maneuver. (Hat tip Mother Jones.)

Really… how petty and disrespectful can you get?

And yes, it does matter what the rest of the world thinks about our presidential election.

For the past three years Progressive Majority of Washington has been bringing Camp Wellstone to Seattle, a three-day candidate, activist and campaign manager training program conducted in cooperation with Wellstone Action. And during that time, twelve Camp Wellstone alum have gone on to win public office in Washington state:

• Island County Commissioner John Dean
• South Prairie Mayor Peggy Levesque
• State Representative Marko Liias (21st LD)
• Tacoma Parks Commissioner Ryan Mello
• State Senator, Eric Oemig (45th LD)
• Shoreline City Councilmember Cindy Ryu
• Issaquah City Councilmember Joshua Schaer
• Shoreline City Councilmember Terry Scott
• Snohomish County Councilmember Dave Somers
• Seattle Port Commissioner Gael Tarleton
• Kent City Councilmember Elizabeth Watson
• Shoreline City Councilmember Janet Way

I attended that first, Seattle-area Camp Wellstone back in June of 2005, and I recognize the names of at least two camp mates from the list above: State Rep. Marko Liias and State Sen. Eric Oemig. It was also there where I first met Darcy Burner, who clearly learned an entirely different lesson out of the inspiring session on campaign fundraising. (I learned I didn’t have what it takes to raise the money to run for office. She learned that she did.)

I can’t recommend Camp Wellstone highly enough, but this year Seattle area prospective candidates and campaign managers have an even better opportunity to hone their skills, when Progressive Majority brings Wellstone Action’s Advanced Candidate and Campaign Management School to Federal Way, April 25-27. Slots are limited, so in order to be considered, hurry up and send your resume and/or a letter explaining why you wish to participate, by March 15 to dkelley at progressivemajority.org.

A nominal fee of $150 helps cover the cost of a hotel room and meals during the training; a small number of scholarships are available to low-income or unemployed participants.