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Gregoire vs. Rossi. Debate #2. Blaine, WA: Minimum Wage Takes Center Stage.

by Josh Feit — Friday, 9/26/08, 11:12 am

Around 10 o’clock last night, as Dino Rossi was leaving Blaine, Washington, a rural town 20-minutes north of Bellingham on the border with Canada—where he and Governor Chris Gregoire had just sparred in their second debate—the GOP hopeful stopped at the Yorky’s Grocery, a convenience store attached to an Exxon gas station.

Garner Palomata, the 36-year-old Filipino working behind the counter, recognized Rossi from the candidate’s TV ads. “Hey, you’re the Rossi guys,” Palomata said—a little awed that “someone famous,” with two other guys in suits and ties in tow, had just strolled into his brightly-lit gas station grocery. Thursday night mostly stars a stream of regulars from the fishing town buying beer and cigarettes.

Rossi told Palomata he had just debated Governor Gregoire, and he had won. “We’re in good shape,” Rossi said. Then he bought a king-size package of King Henry Boston baked beans, wintergreen Certs, and a Red Bull for $20 in cash (one of his entourage paid, actually) and headed out of town.

Later that night at Yorky’s—I was on a junk food run— Palomata said he planned to vote for Rossi. “I’m a Republican. I like the Palin thing.” He was glad that Rossi thought the night had gone well.

I told Palomata about one of the main standoffs in that night’s debate, a point that seemed germane to the clerk. Both candidates were asked if they thought the minimum wage was supposed to be a “living wage” and would either one consider scaling it back.

“I don’t know of anybody getting rich on the minimum wage,” Gregoire told the hostile crowd (the debate was sponsored by the Association of Washington Business and the questions came from their membership). “The people of Washington are struggling. They go to the gas pumps and can’t afford to fill up the car, they go to the grocery and can’t afford to put food on the table…Washingtonians need to be able to provide for their families. Plenty of people are working minimum wage jobs that need to provide for their families, and I want to stand with Washingtonians.”

She said she supported the voter-approved minimum wage, $8.07 an hour. She also said she supported training programs for teen workers.

Rossi took the opposite point of view. Touting his Washington Restaurant Association endorsement (the most adamant opponents of the minimum wage), he said:   “The minimum wage was not meant to be a family wage. It’s meant to be an entry level wage.”

The news pissed off Palomata. “If he lowers it,” he said, “I don’t want to vote for him. I’d be cutting my head off. I don’t want to demote myself.” Palomata and his girlfriend live in a rented cabin in Birch Bay, just south of Blaine, where the median family income is $44,000. (By way of comparison, the median family income in Seattle is $65,000.)

While Rossi’s line on the minimum wage didn’t play well with the Blaine convenience store clerk, it did play well with the crowd on the right side of the tracks in the 6,500-square-foot Semiahmoo Grand Ballroom at the Semiahmoo Resort Golf Spa, the classy hotel tucked away on the northern shoreline of the Puget Sound where AWB members drank red wine and nodded in approval at most of Rossi’s answers.

If you were to judge by the crowd reaction—the AWB gave Rossi an award earlier in the day and interrupted him several times during the debate with applause—Rossi was right when he boasted to Palomata about his successful night. He hit the themes he has hit before: Gregoire has increased spending 33 percent, created a $3.2 billion deficit, and raised taxes by $500 million. He also points out that Washington has one of the highest rates of small business failures in the U.S.

In contrast, Rossi says he will create an “entrepreneurial state,” balance the budget (“I’ve done it before and I will do it again”), and scrap all the requirements that he says are keeping insurance companies from coming to our state and creating a competitive health care climate.

Rossi’s most successful turn came when he accurately busted the governor for not being the deciderer on the Viaduct. “The big problem we have with transportation in this state is that we can’t make a decision until everybody is holding hands and singing ‘Kumbaya,’ ” he said. “Sometimes you just have to make a decision.”

While Gregoire wasn’t an audience favorite, she was authoritative and forceful and certainly landed some blows herself. She unraveled Rossi’s talk of deregulating health care by linking Rossi’s GOP philosophy to the Bush-era disaster on Wall Street saying: “His other solution is deregulation, well, that worked great for the financial institutions of America.”

She also scored points (and even got a laugh from the otherwise unfriendly audience) when she answered a question posed by Rossi about her budget. Each candidate got to ask the other a question and Rossi asked if Gregoire had the chance, would she do her budget differently? The laugh came when she started by saying “unlike you” she would answer his question—Rossi had just dodged her question to him which asked what policies he disagreed with President Bush on.

Then she hit her main anti-Rossi theme (that his values are out of sync with the voters), saying she stood by her budget: “I balanced the budget and I will do it again…and not on the backs off children and seniors like he did, but by understanding the values of the people of Washington.” Rossi’s 2003 budget raised taxes on seniors in nursing homes, cut education funding by almost $1 billion, and threw 40,000 low-income kids off health care.

As they did in their first debate, the pair continued to fight over the projected $3.2 billion budget deficit. Gregoire maintains the state has a surplus and Rossi maintains Gregoire has spent the state into the red.

One final note that I found newsworthy in its own right beyond the debate: Governor Gregoire said the family leave act, a pet project of the liberal Senate, including Democratic Senate Majority leader Sen. Lisa Brown (D-3, Spokane), was “suspended.” Gregoire noted this when she was asked to detail her plans to deal with the projected deficit. (Rossi’s only specific to the same question was that he would cut the governor’s office budget, which he said Gregoire had increased by bulking up her “entourage.”)

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The reviews are unanimous

by Goldy — Friday, 9/26/08, 7:41 am

Writing in the National Review Online, conservative columnist Kathleen Parker calls for Sarah Palin to bow out:

Palin’s recent interviews with Charles Gibson, Sean Hannity, and now Katie Couric have all revealed an attractive, earnest, confident candidate. Who Is Clearly Out Of Her League.

No one hates saying that more than I do. Like so many women, I’ve been pulling for Palin, wishing her the best, hoping she will perform brilliantly. I’ve also noticed that I watch her interviews with the held breath of an anxious parent, my finger poised over the mute button in case it gets too painful. Unfortunately, it often does. My cringe reflex is exhausted.

[…] When Couric pointed to polls showing that the financial crisis had boosted Obama’s numbers, Palin blustered wordily: “I’m not looking at poll numbers. What I think Americans at the end of the day are going to be able to go back and look at track records and see who’s more apt to be talking about solutions and wishing for and hoping for solutions for some opportunity to change, and who’s actually done it?”

If BS were currency, Palin could bail out Wall Street herself.

And Parker’s conclusion?

Only Palin can save McCain, her party, and the country she loves. She can bow out for personal reasons, perhaps because she wants to spend more time with her newborn. No one would criticize a mother who puts her family first.

Do it for your country.

Ouch.

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I guess I don’t have to pull my deposits out of WaMu after all

by Goldy — Thursday, 9/25/08, 4:48 pm

JP Morgan Chase to acquire struggling Washington Mutual. I suppose that means I shouldn’t continue to expect 3.75 percent interest on my savings account, should I?

UPDATE:
Okay, now the NY Times is saying that WaMu has been “seized” by the FDIC, and its retail banking and “other pieces” sold off to JP Morgan Chase.  But…

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation issued a statement on Thursday evening promising a seamless transition. “For all depositors and other customers of Washington Mutual Bank, this is simply a combination of two banks,” said the F.D.I.C. chairman, Sheila C. Bair, adding that for Washington Mutual’s customers, it would be “business as usual come Friday morning.”

I just checked, and I still have access to my account.  Not so sure about that sweet interest rate though.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
Largest.  Bank failure.  Ever.  (We’re number one!)

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PDC finds state Republicans guilty of massive campaign finance fraud

by Goldy — Thursday, 9/25/08, 3:13 pm

The Public Disclosure Commission voted to concur with a staff report today, finding the Washington State Republican Party guilty of numerous egregious violations of our state’s campaign finance and public disclosure laws, including at least $150,000 of illegal expenditures on behalf of Dino Rossi in the weeks leading up to the August primary.  Lacking the authority to impose a large enough penalty proportionate to the violations, the PDC has referred the case to Attorney General Rob McKenna for further prosecution.

This is the second time in as many weeks that McKenna has been handed an investigation of close political allies, following the PDC ruling that found the Building Industry Association of Washington guilty of failing to report at least $1.2 million in campaign contributions.  There is no word from McKenna as to when he might take action on either of these cases.  But don’t hold your breath.

As first reported here on HA, the WSRP flagrantly used “exempt” soft money contributions to illegally finance direct advocacy, specifically a pro-Rossi/anti-Gregoire direct mail smear campaign.  And as I wrote at the time, the case against Rossi and the WSRP was pretty cut and dry:

This isn’t rocket science.  It’s Campaign Finance 101.  All the political candidates, consultants, committees and parties know damn well what is or is not allowed.  And yet the WSRP chose to blatantly violate campaign expenditure laws that have been in place for the past 16 years.

[…] Let’s be clear, this is no mistake or accidental oversight; WSRP chair Luke Esser, allegedly a lawyer, deliberately and knowingly violated the law, feebly attempting to disguise these illegal expenditures by mislabeling them as “member communications” (a label that would not make these expenditures exempt, even if true.)  The WSRP could have run the mailing past the PDC ahead of time—campaigns do this all the time—but they knew the answer they would get.  Which of course is why they never asked.

The distinction between “exempt” and “non-exempt” funds is clear.  The former are “exempt” from normal campaign contribution limits, and may be used for party building, organizing and get out the vote efforts, but not for direct advocacy for or against a candidate.  The latter may be used for any purpose, but are subject to strict contribution limits.  Buy using exempt funds for non-exempt purposes the WSRP has intentionally violated the law, using large lump sum contributions from GOP fat cats like Rufus Lumry ($80,000) and Eastside developer Skip Rowley ($30,000), and from powerful special interests like the National Electrical Contractors Association ($50,000) and Walmart ($25,000) to illegally finance Rossi’s campaign.

But, well, I guess Esser just figures that breaking the law, and the inevitable fines, are just part of the cost of running an effective campaign.

No doubt the WSRP fully understands that it faces a substantial penalty for such a flagrant and deliberate PDC violation, but that won’t come until after the election, so no harm done.  No, if there’s a penalty to be paid ahead of this election it will have to come at the hands of the local media, but whether they’ll give this story the scrutiny it deserves, or merely brush it off as another “he said, she said” between two feuding camps, remains to be seen.

Personally, I don’t have much faith in our local media to express the outrage such deliberate flouting of our campaign finance laws rightly deserves, and I’m afraid that McKenna, now with two major cases on his plate, against his two biggest financial backers, won’t substantively move on either case until well after the November election.

And if my fears are proven correct, that means the WSRP and the BIAW will well learn the lesson that crime does indeed pay.  Voters will never know about the extent of these violations because our amen editorialists can’t be bothered to muster up the outrage, and the fines, however large, will simply be paid with more lump sum contributions from the same wealthy Republican benefactors.

What they hope to buy with all their illegal money is the governor’s mansion.  And you can be sure that they’ve already made the calculation that even a hefty post-election fine would be money well spent.

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Humane Society breaks with 141 year tradition, endorses Obama

by Goldy — Tuesday, 9/23/08, 10:01 pm

Founded in 1877, the nonpartisan Humane Society has never endorsed anybody for president it its entire 141 year history.  Until now.

I’m proud to announce today that the HSLF board of directors—which is comprised of both Democrats and Republicans—has voted unanimously to endorse Barack Obama for President. The Obama-Biden ticket is the better choice on animal protection, and we urge all voters who care about the humane treatment of animals, no matter what their party affiliation, to vote for them.

And yes, this did have something to do with the endorsement:

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Without John McCain, they would’ve called them “The Keating Four“

by Goldy — Friday, 9/19/08, 10:00 am


(Hat tip Crooks & Liars.)

And of course, it’s more than just the economy on which John McCain mimics George W. Bush; you can learn more at Third Term:  The Movie.

Voters should keep McCain’s role in the savings and loan debacle in mind as they’re asked to once again to pick up the pieces from yet another financial crisis largely created by the free trade/deregulatory policies McCain has ideologically championed throughout his entire career.  Sure, the markets are soaring this morning, but taxpayers’ spirits won’t be when they hear the reasons why:

Congressional leaders said after meeting Thursday evening with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that as much as $1 trillion could be needed to avoid an imminent meltdown of the U.S. financial system.

[…] “We’re talking hundreds of billions,” Paulson told reporters. “This needs to be big enough to make a real difference and get to the heart of the problem.”

A trillion dollars of taxpayer money to buy up the bad debt whose accumulation made Wall Street executives rich beyond your wildest dreams.  And for this we’re supposed to reward McCain with the reins of government?

Those guys with the booze in the funny hats?  That’s McCain partying with Charles Keating in the heady days before McCain pressured regulators to lay off Lincoln Savings, and the S&L’s collapse subsequently cost taxpayers a couple billion dollars, and Keating a few years of his freedom on a fraud conviction.

And this is the guy we’re supposed to trust to keep an eye on Wall Street?  The guy who bills himself as “the greatest free trader” and “the greatest deregulator” ever…?

A trillion dollars, folks.  $1,000,000,000,000.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) said on ABC’s “Good Morning America” said lawmakers were told last night “that we’re literally maybe days away from a complete meltdown of our financial system, with all the implications, here at home and globally.”

For all you McCain-style free traders out there, this is what we call a market failure.  Your economic philosophy—your religion—that the market always makes the most efficient allocation of resources, and that it always corrects itself, as if guided by the invisible hand of God?  Well, it’s just been proven wrong.

Again.

And the impact on the rest of us, I mean beside the recession that will bring undue economic hardship on billions of people worldwide, while Wall Street executives become honored philanthropists for giving away a fraction of their ill-gotten golden parachutes?

The solution being proposed by the Bush administration is the most expensive bailout in the nation’s history, sharply curtailing the ability of the next president to push for tax cuts or new spending.

Well thanks a fucking lot.  Once again a Democratic president will be forced to spend his entire eight years, shoving progressive policies like universal health care aside so that he can clean up the mess of the previous administration.

That is, assuming, voters aren’t stupid enough to elect John McCain.

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The Stokesbary Rules

by Goldy — Thursday, 9/18/08, 12:05 pm

No doubt state Rep. Geoff Simpson (D-47) is facing a tough reelection fight, what with the press gleefully trumpeting his arrest on suspicion of domestic violence, yet quietly chirping like crickets when the case was quickly dropped without charges being filed.  But it’s not just his bad press that’s made Simpson vulnerable this election cycle, it’s also his stalwart opposition to all things BIAW, which has made him the target of some very powerful enemies.

And when the BIAW goes after you, they fight dirty, unimpeded by the law, let alone the Queensberry Rules.

Take for example an email sent out recently to a number of lobbyists by Drew Stokesbary, the campaign chair for Simpson’s Republican opponent Mark Hargrove… an email so inappropriate that even lobbyists were disgusted, prompting several to forward copies directly to Simpson and his campaign.

I noticed that one of your clients, [REDACTED], has contributed to Geoff Simpson. I’d like to encourage you to see if you can get Simpson’s opponent, Mark Hargrove, a similar contribution from [REDACTED].  I understand there are political reasons for that contribution, but the dynamics of the race of have been shifting lately.

[…] The caucus is making a significant hard-dollar contribution, and probably a larger soft-dollar contribution.  Builders, construction, insurance, pharma, NFIB, ag, and others are jumping in now.

You gotta appreciate young Stokesbary’s eagerness to take the initiative, if not his respect (or lack thereof) for our state’s campaign finance laws, for three things immediately jump out from both his email and his public record:  A) Stokesbary is clearly using Simpson’s PDC reports to solicit funds, which is illegal; B) Stokesbary clearly implies that he is coordinating soft-dollar expenditures with his state caucus, which is illegal; and C) Stokesbary is… well… an asshole, which isn’t illegal per se, but turns out to be quite pertinent to the rest of this post.

For in addition to being Hargrove’s campaign chair and son-in-law, Stokesbary turns out to be an employee of both the BIAW and Attorney General Rob McKenna, a bigot, a racist, a George W. Bush fan, a teacher-hater, a sycophant, a hothead and, well, an asshole.

Hmm… where to start?  How about with the most damning of the epithets I just tossed Stokesbary’s way, his association with the lying, cheating, equally assholic bastards at the BIAW, where according to their annual report, he was employed at least through 2007.  And it was with a fellow BIAW employee Tom Kwieciak, that Stokesbary most visibly displayed the organization’s unique approach to public discourse, by notoriously heckling professional golfer Curtis Strange from the hospitality box of the 2007 Boeing Classic.

“Go for it, Curtis,” Drew Stokesbary, 22, of Olympia yelled from the Canyon Club. “Be a man.”

Strange, 52, took his time while he surveyed the troublesome hole. His expression didn’t change.

“Go for it, Curtis,” Stokesbary repeated loudly, seated at a table. “Hit it like a man.”

Choosing the conservative route, Strange swung and put one in the fairway. Another verbal assault followed him off the tee.

“That’s what the ladies’ tour is for, Curtis,” Stokesbary chided as the golfer passed in front of the box.

[…] “I heard on the radio that he’s considered a hothead, which is why I singled him out, and he proved it,” Stokesbary said, referring to Strange.

I mean… what an asshole.

That is the sort of antisocial behavior Stokesbary has displayed throughout his short life, which of course makes him perfect BIAW material.  According to a blog post by a Chinese classmate of his at Duke, Stokesbary used to intentionally “stir up trouble with his incendiary arguments” during history class…

Once, when he made a remark about how if immigrants wanted to keep their traditions alive, they shouldn’t have come to the US in the first place, my friends had to literally restrain me from knocking him over.

And in his Amazon review of Gordon Park’s classic 1964 “The Learning Tree,” a novel about growing up black in a white man’s world, Stokesbary displayed his usual racial sensitivity:

this was about the worst and slowest-paced book i’ve ever read. In english class we had to read a book by a black author and my teacher thought i might like it. but i didn’t. it was terrible. by the time you get about halfway through the pace picks up, but by then it’s pointless. don’t buy this book or read it. please.

Yup.  Nothing worse than being forced to read a book by a black author.

I don’t know much about Hargrove, but if I were him I’d be more than bit uncomfortable having this unrepentant fratboy chair my campaign, let alone marry my daughter.  And as for Rob McKenna, I think he needs to answer a few questions about whether Stokesbary was acting on his authority, since the email certainly appears to give that impression.

This email, in which Stokesbary warns lobbyists that clients who have given to Simpson better give to Hargrove too, was sent from a RobMcKenna.org email address, and signed by Stokesbary with the title “Field Director, Re-Elect AG Rob McKenna.”  The clear impression left with some recipients was that this was a direct request from McKenna, the most powerful Republican in the state, and a man in a position to impose political fealty.

So why would McKenna risk putting his name on such a legally and ethically dubious email?  After obtaining a copy of Stokesbary’s email from a political consultant, I contacted Rep. Simpson and asked him for his response.  Not surprisingly, he seems to believe it all comes down to the BIAW:

“Why are they coming after me? They want existing taxpayers to pay for the roads, schools and fire stations their new development requires and I think  the developers should pay their fair share through impact fees. They are one of the state’s most powerful political group but I stand up to them and am one of the biggest obstacles to them getting what they want in Olympia. They want growth without regulation. I want controlled and planned growth. They want to maintain their ability to skim industrial insurance money to use for political purposes but I worked to stop them.  Hargrove hasn’t even been elected yet and he’s already sold out to the BIAW.”

If so, expect this campaign to get much nastier.  And, less legal.

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That’s not change we can believe in…

by Goldy — Wednesday, 9/17/08, 6:00 pm

UPDATE:
And apparently, I’m not the only one who has trouble seeing John McCain as an agent of change.  According to the latest NY Times/CBS poll:

Despite an intense effort to distance himself from the way his party has done business in Washington, Senator John McCain is seen by voters as far less likely to bring change to Washington than Senator Barack Obama. He is widely viewed as a “typical Republican” who would continue or expand President Bush’s policies, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

And that Palin bounce?

[T]he Times/CBS News poll suggested that Ms. Palin’s selection has, to date, helped Mr. McCain only among Republican base voters; there was no evidence of significantly increased support for him among women in general.

[…] This poll found evidence of concern about Ms. Palin’s qualifications to be president, particularly compared with Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, Mr. Obama’s running mate. More than 6 in 10 said they would be concerned if Mr. McCain could not finish his term and Ms. Palin had to take over. In contrast, two-thirds of voters surveyed said Mr. Biden would be qualified to take over for Mr. Obama, a figure that cut across party lines.

The Times/CBS poll shows Obama leading McCain 48 to 43, which is right in line with the latest Daily Kos/Research 2000 tracking poll, that shows a 48 to 44 margin.

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Teacher’s Pet

by Josh Feit — Wednesday, 9/17/08, 11:57 am

How Dave Reichert’s C Grade Voting Record Turned Into an NEA Endorsement

By Josh Feit

Apparently the National Education Association grades Republicans on a curve. Consider: Suburban Washington state Democratic U.S. Reps. Jay Inslee (D-1, WA) and Adam Smith (D-9, WA) earned A’s for their 2007 voting records. Makes sense. Inslee voted the union’s way over 90 percent of the time and Smith voted the union’s way 100 percent of the time. Suburban Republican Rep. Dave Richter (R-8, WA) got an A for the session too. But he only voted the union’s way 69 percent of the time. (According to the NEA’s official grading scale, you need to vote with the union at least 85 percent of the time to get an A. Reichert’s score, between 55 and 70, should have actually rated a C.)

Perhaps Reichert came into the session with some extra credit. In the previous term, he joined the Democratic majority by voting against a “merit pay” pilot program. Merit pay—tying raises to student performance—is anathema to the teachers union.

Randall Moody, the NEA’s chief lobbyist, told me: “It’s not fair to link pay to things like test scores. It’s unrealistic. There are a lot of other factors. Did the child have breakfast that morning? Do they come from a dysfunctional home?” Elaborating on the NEA’s opposition to merit pay, Moody also asks, “Who judges? What’s the criteria?”

Along with Reichert’s “A” grade, his opposition to merit pay, which he reiterated in his endorsement interview, was one of the factors leading the NEA to endorse Reichert over Democratic challenger, Darcy Burner, earlier this year, according to Lisa Brackin Johnson, the head of the Kent Education Association and one of the members on the Washington Education Association (WEA) endorsement board. Brackin Johnson also reports that Burner told the union she wasn’t against merit pay. “Burner didn’t understand the issue,” Brackin Johnson says.

The endorsement was atypical for the teachers union, which usually backs Democrats. Like John McCain, Reichert, who votes with the Republican majority position 88 percent of the time according to an analysis done in 2006 by the Democratic blog “On the Road to 2008,” has been trying to portray himself as a more independent Republican this election season. He has wisely been hyping the NEA’s stamp of approval on the campaign trail.

If the press had taken a closer look at the curious NEA endorsement, they would have found that in addition to Reichert’s inflated grade, it’s Burner who’s behaving independently. Burner is bucking A-student, WEA Washington Democrats like Inslee and Smith, and the rest of the local Democratic roster—Reps. Rick Larsen, Brian Baird, Norm Dicks, and Jim McDermott. Washington’s Democratic House members consistently voted with the monolithic, union-friendly Democratic House caucus to defeat the merit pay bills repeatedly sponsored by Republican Rep. Tom Price (R-GA, 6).

“During her interviews she didn’t rule out the possibility of paying good teachers well if there’s evidence that it could provide a better education for kids in the district,” Burner spokesman Sandeep Kaushik says. “She was honest with the teachers when she met with them. Like Sen. Obama she believes we should not rule out reform options.”

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama has also bucked the traditional Democratic line. He supports merit pay programs.

Isn’t Reichert bucking his caucus too by telling the union he’s against merit pay? Hard to say. While he did vote against the merit pay measure in 2005, and while he did tell the WEA he didn’t support merit pay during his endorsement interview, he actually voted for a separate merit pay bill in 2007.

Despite several requests, Reichert would not comment for this article.

According to Brackin Johnson, Reichert believes it’s unfair to gauge a teacher’s year-to-year performance on the success of his or her students because groups of kids differ from year to year in ways that are beyond the teacher’s control. For example, social issues outside the classroom may impact students’ ability to do well in the classroom. Brackin Johnson suggested that Reichert, as a former Sheriff, has a keen sense of the issues that affect kids outside the classroom.

There were certainly other factors in the WEA’s decision to endorse Reichert over Burner. Reichert told the endorsement board that No Child Left Behind is an “unfunded mandate” that needs to be reformed. And the WEA “contact team” says he’s become newly accessible to WEA lobbyists. This is an encouraging turnabout from his first term, they say. The change, the union says, was reflected in his improved voting record. “He listens to us,” Brackin reports. (This is a reference to Reichert’s recent “A” grade—again, 69 percent—an improvement over his 35 percent score from his first term in Congress.)

WEA spokesperson Rich Wood also cited Reichert’s “A” as the reason the union endorsed him, highlighting Reichert’s vote to override President Bush’s children’s health care veto; Reichert’s vote to lower student loan interest rates; and a vote for Head Start, the $6.8 billion program for low-income school children.

However, while Reichert did vote to reauthorize the Head Start program late last year, he also voted for an earlier amendment (it failed) which the NEA opposed because they believed it would have limited access to the program. And in 2005, Reichert voted for a successful amendment to the Head Start reauthorization bill that allowed religious groups participating in the federally funded program to hire and fire based on religious grounds. The NEA (and the ACLU for that matter) opposed the amendment.

The chief lobbyist for the NEA, Randall Moody, did explain Reichert’s “A,” telling me that in addition to voting records (which can often be complicated by partisan traps) they add things like how accessible a Rep. is to NEA lobbyists.” It’s a fairer evaluation of a member’s support for public education,” Moody says.

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Light rail expansion appears headed toward victory

by Goldy — Wednesday, 9/17/08, 10:11 am

I’m a little suspect of the polls right now in the wake of the national conventions, but as Lee just pointed out, the latest KING5/SurveyUSA poll on Prop. 1 is sure to dishearten the anti-rail crowd that maniacally trolls HA’s comment threads.

When asked about Sound Transit’s proposal to expand rail and bus service, 49% of respondents said that they were certain to vote yes, while only 16% said they were certain to vote no.  And when the uncertain respondents were asked whether they lean toward one side or the other, Prop. 1’s advantage expanded to a whopping 65% to 20% margin.

But perhaps more interesting…

Among those who describe themselves as conservatives, those voting or leaning “no” slightly outnumber those voting or leaning “yes.” Among those who identify themselves as Republicans, “yes” slightly outnumbers “no.” Among all other groups, the measure passes by no fewer than 31 points.

So Prop. 1 seems to have pretty damn broad support, even within the constituencies where you would expect the strongest opposition, a finding that is consistent with some internal polling numbers I heard whispered about a few weeks back.  Of course, unlike the actual ballot language, the SurveyUSA question didn’t include the $17.9 billion estimated cost, so I’d be surprised to see Prop. 1 pass by such a large margin… but I’d be even more surprised to see it fail.

There are several major differences between this year’s Prop. 1 and last year’s failed measure of the same nomenclature:  the proposal, the electorate and the economic reality.

This Prop. 1 is not tied to an unpopular and controversial road expansion package that split the environmental community and dramatically escalated the costs.  This Prop. 1 will benefit from the significantly larger and more progressive electorate that tends to turn out in this region during presidential election years.  And most of all, this election will occur with memories of $4.50/gallon gasoline still fresh in everybody’s minds… so fresh that bus and commuter rail ridership continues to grow even as gasoline prices have temporarily stepped back from their historic highs.

As I’ve repeatedly argued, the era of cheap gasoline is over, and that means that 2008 is most definitely not 2007:

I know conventional wisdom still suggests that now is the wrong time for Sound Transit to come back with a ballot measure, just one year after the defeat of Prop 1, but the conventional wise men are missing the point: 2008 isn’t 2007. The era of cheap gas is over, and Americans—even Seattle-Americans (and yes, I know, Seattle is different from every other city in the world)—are beginning to change their behavior in response. Voters get that, even if our politicians and editorialists don’t.

Traffic congestion has far from disappeared as a volatile political issue, but public demand for affordable transportation alternatives is rising at least as fast as the price of gas. And the thing is, whether it’s cheaper and more efficient or not, when current drivers envision their future mass transit commute, they much prefer to envision themselves riding on a train, than on a bus. People like trains; that’s a fact. And if I were an elected official, I’d probably want to focus on delivering the services that the people want.

Many of our region’s political and media old timers still seem mired in the auto-centric transportation vision of the 1950’s.  But I’m guessing we’ll find out on November 4 that the majority of voters are not.

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Gregoire leads Rossi in new Washington state poll

by Darryl — Tuesday, 9/16/08, 1:40 pm

A new poll in the Washington state gubernatorial race between Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) and Dino Rossi (“G.O.P. Party) has been released by Elway Research. I mentioned the poll in yesterday’s poll round-up, but I had not seen the full report.

It turns out the polling was somewhat complex. The poll sampled 450 registered voters between 6-Sep and 8-Sep. The overall margin of error is 4.5%, although in the most interesting analyses, they split samples in half, giving a margin of error within a group of 6.5%.

Elway split the sample into two groups. Group one was asked to chose between “Republican Dino Rossi” and “Democrat Christine Gregoire.” Group two was asked to chose between labels as they appear on the Washington state ballot. That is, they were asked to chose between Rossi, “who prefers the GOP party” and Gregoire, “who prefers the Democratic party.”

Subgroup one gave Gregoire a 50% to 41% lead over Rossi. Group two gave Gregoire a 48% to 44% lead. With a 6.5% margin of error, the differences in these findings are nowhere near achieving statistical significance. In other words, the differences between the two subgroups could simply reflect sampling error.

Just for fun, let’s analyze these as separate polls and combine them later. As usual, I use a Monte Carlo analysis, consisting of one million simulated elections, drawing from the polled population.

The weakest results for Gregoire come when Rossi is introduced as preferring the “G.O.P. Party.” Following a million simulated elections, Gregoire wins 660435 times and Rossi wins 321369 times. This suggests that, if the election was held now, Gregoire would have a 67.3% probability of beating Rossi. Here is the distribution of vote outcomes from the simulations:

When Rossi is called a Republican, his chances go down a bit. Now, after a million simulated elections, Gregoire wins 834,999 times and Rossi wins 153,178 times. This subsample, treated as its own poll, gives Gregoire an 84.5% of defeating Rossi (if the election were held now).

I would argue for using both samples. First, because the difference is not significant. It may be that Washington voters react negatively to Rossi as a Republican. Or not. The sample size was not sufficient to statistically support the idea. Secondly, because I have a difficult time believing that come November the voters will not think of this as a race between the state’s top Democratic candidate and the state’s top Republican candidate.

In the pooled analysis Gregoire wins 838,346 times. Rossi wins 153,042 times. If the election were held now, based on this poll alone, Gregoire would have an 84.6% probability of defeating Rossi. Here is the distribution:

Let’s consider one more permutation. The new Elway poll actually falls between two other recent polls, so lets pool all the recent polls. The recent Rasmussen poll was conducted on 10-Sep. It gave Rossi a 52% to 46% lead over Gregoire. And the slightly older SurveyUSA poll was conduted from 5-Sep to 7-Sep. It gave Rossi a 48% to 47% lead over Gregoire.

When the Elway results are pooled with the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA results, Gregoire wins 451,469 times and Rossi wins 541,349 times. In other words, these recent polls suggest that, if the election were held now, Gregoire would have a 45.5% probability of winning and Rossi would have a 54.5% probability of winning.

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One final note. In my previous analysis of this race I pointed out that both the SurveyUSA and Rasmussen “polls show a surprising decline in Obama’s standing against McCain—a post-convention decline that is larger than anything I’ve seen in other blue states.” The suggestion was that, perhaps, both polls, by chance, drew samples that were favorable to both Rossi and McCain. There were some hints of this in the cross-tabs of both polls (like a surge in women chosing McCain in the Rasmussen poll).

The Elway poll lends a bit more support for the idea. In a McCain–Obama match-up, Obama came out ahead of McCain, 45% to 38%. The +7% advantage for Obama is more in line with other polling than is the +2% found in the Rasmussen poll and the +4% found in the SurveyUSA poll.

But without additional evidence, I’m forced to take the pooled results and giving Rossi a very narrow lead over Gregoire right now.

(Cross posted at Hominid Views.)

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Palin admiringly quotes writer who called for Kennedy assassination

by Goldy — Tuesday, 9/16/08, 11:15 am

With all the hoo-hah over Sarah Palin’s documented desire to ban books from the Wasilla public library, and her vindictive effort to fire a popular city librarian who openly expressed her opposition to mayoral censorship, perhaps we should have been focusing less on the books Palin wanted to ban, and a bit more on the books she actually reads.

As New York Times columnist Frank Rich astutely pointed out on Sunday, Americans should find Palin’s apparent reading list downright scary:

This was made clear in the most chilling passage of Palin’s acceptance speech. Aligning herself with “a young farmer and a haberdasher from Missouri” who “followed an unlikely path to the vice presidency,” she read a quote from an unidentified writer who, she claimed, had praised Truman: “We grow good people in our small towns, with honesty and sincerity and dignity.”

[…] There were several creepy subtexts at work here. The first was the choice of Truman. Most 20th-century vice presidents and presidents in both parties hailed from small towns, but she just happened to alight on a Democrat who ascended to the presidency when an ailing president died in office. Just as striking was the unnamed writer she quoted. He was identified by Thomas Frank in The Wall Street Journal as the now largely forgotten but once powerful right-wing Hearst columnist Westbrook Pegler.

Palin, who lies with ease about her own record, misrepresented Pegler’s too. He decreed America was “done for” after Truman won a full term in 1948. For his part, Truman regarded the columnist as a “guttersnipe,” and with good reason. Pegler was a rabid Joe McCarthyite who loathed F.D.R. and Ike and tirelessly advanced the theory that American Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe (“geese,” he called them) were all likely Communists.

So… exactly how right-wing was Pegler?  As Robert F. Kennedy Jr. points out today on the Huffington Post, so right-wing as to have publicly called for his father’s assassination.

Fascist writer Westbrook Pegler, an avowed racist who Sarah Palin approvingly quoted in her acceptance speech for the moral superiority of small town values, expressed his fervent hope about my father, Robert F. Kennedy, as he contemplated his own run for the presidency in 1965, that “some white patriot of the Southern tier will spatter his spoonful of brains in public premises before the snow flies.”

When a vice presidential candidate can admiringly quote a fascist, racist, anti-semitic hate-monger like Pegler—in her acceptance speech no less—and America barely bats an eye, it tells you a lot about where our nation is potentially going.

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John McCain invented the Blackberry!

by Goldy — Tuesday, 9/16/08, 10:07 am

They lie about big things.  They lie about little things.  They forcefully repeat their lies to the faces of reporters even when confronted with irrefutable evidence to the contrary.  In fact, it’s gotten so ridiculous that you’ve got to start wondering what the McCain campaign isn’t lying about?

Take for example today’s inexplicable fabulation, in which McCain’s top economics adviser bizarrely pointed to his BlackBerry as evidence of his candidate’s understanding of financial markets:

Asked what work John McCain did as chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee that helped him understand the financial markets, the candidate’s top economic adviser wielded visual evidence: his BlackBerry.

“He did this,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin told reporters this morning, holding up his BlackBerry. “Telecommunications of the United States is a premier innovation in the past 15 years, comes right through the commerce committee so you’re looking at the miracle John McCain helped create and that’s what he did.”

That’s right, John McCain invented the BlackBerry!

Only, of course, he didn’t.  It was invented by a Canadian company.  McCain doesn’t use BlackBerry.  Hell, he doesn’t even use email.

And if this seems like a petty thing to go after the McCain camp on, well A) McCain repeatedly mocked Al Gore during the 2000 campaign for the bogus “I invented the Internet” claim (which Gore never said, but for which there’s actually a kernel of truth); and B) This is just one in a series of shameless lies and distortions that have been emanating from McCain, Palin and their campaign for weeks.

Can we trust McCain or his advisers on anything?  For example, McCain surrogates have repeatedly reacted with outrage over accusations that he doesn’t use email, indignantly claiming that injuries incurred as a prisoner of war make it physically impossible for him to use a keyboard.

Really? He can’t even hunt and peck with a single stiff index finger like the majority Internet-savvy seniors his age? So how does his campaign explain the dozens of email exchanges between him and reporters that have been referenced in the New York Times and other publications?  Are staffers writing his emails for him? And how do they explain the nimble fingers displayed in this video of McCain handling his cell phone on the floor of the Senate?

I suppose if the 72-year-old McCain would release his complete medical records, like every other nominee in recent years, we might know for sure.  But they won’t.  Because the McCain/Palin administration promises to be the most opaque since… well… Bush/Cheney.

Honestly… if in the midst of what former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan calls the greatest financial crisis in his lifetime, McCain’s top economics adviser has to reach so far into his bag of bullshit as to make the facially ridiculous assertion that John McCain had a role in inventing the BlackBerry, how can we trust anything from any member of the McCain campaign on any issue?

The truth is, we can’t.

UPDATE:
And as it turns out…

Blair Levin, who is currently Managing Director at Stifel Nicolaus and served as [former FCC chair Reed] Hundt’s chief of staff … pointed out that McCain actually voted against the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act (OBRA ‘93) that “authorized the spectrum auctions that created the competitive wireless market that gave rise to companies like Research in Motion [the creator of Blackberry].”

Why am I not surprised?

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Alaskans stand up for American values

by Jon DeVore — Sunday, 9/14/08, 8:40 am

From Anchorage Daily News:

A crowd of anti-Sarah Palin protesters gathered in Midtown Anchorage soon after the Republican nominee for vice president left Alaska to resume campaigning in the Lower 48.

The Saturday protest in front of the Loussac Library appeared bigger than any Anchorage has seen in recent memory. The crowd looked to be in the high hundreds at least, and organizers said they counted 1,500. It included roughly 100 counter protesters supporting Palin.

It sounds like a lot of Alaskans have solid American values. From the same article:

“Sarah Palin frightens the hell out of me. I don’t want her anywhere near the White House,” said Marybeth Holleman of Anchorage.

—snip—

Alison Till, a geologist in Anchorage with the U.S. Geological Survey, said issues such as energy and global warming require solid and unbiased science to make good decisions. Palin’s opposition to listing the polar bear as threatened under the endangered species act and her support of teaching creationism in public schools are not the hallmarks of someone who relies upon solid science, Till argued.

“She is unqualified,” Till said.

The Alaskan blog Mudflats has photos and their own account of the rally, including this little tidbit regarding a right-wing talk radio host named Eddie Burke, who tried to intimidate the organizers of the rally by calling them maggots and reading their phone numbers on the air:

Then, the infamous Eddie Burke showed up. He tried to talk to the media, and was instantly surrounded by a group of 20 people who started shouting O-BA-MA so loud he couldn’t be heard. Then passing cars started honking in a rhythmic pattern of 3, like the Obama chant, while the crowd cheered, hooted and waved their signs high.

And I’m sure this spontaneous display of courage in standing up to this twisted man with a microphone will be spun by the right as “not respecting freedom of speech.” You know the drill by now. The right spews its hate and then explodes in phony outrage when people dare to stand up to it.

So while some people might wish to continue the culture wars and attempts to pit rural versus urban, gay versus straight or black versus white, normal people aren’t buying it. I can’t say if the American people as a whole have had enough of Republican lies and hypocrisy, but it’s heartening to see 1,500 Alaskans standing up to the bully-boy tactics of the right. Given the relatively small population of the state, that’s quite a display.

Mudflats also has lots of cool pics of the rally.

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Podcasting Liberally

by Darryl — Wednesday, 9/10/08, 11:02 pm

To start, the panel ponders the political Palinolithic era. Is “pathological liar” too strong a phrase? Would an actuary predict a probable Palin presidency? Did Palin add a punch to the post-convention polls? The panel next takes on some Washington state issues, like who is the real Rossi and would the public really respect (or even recognize) him if they knew him? And with the incredible shrinking media, could that even happen? ’Sup with the Supreme Court and I-960? And what’s the (non-) deal with the Boeing strike?

Goldy was joined by Seattle P-I columnist Joel Connelly, Executive Director of the Northwest Progressive Institute Andrew Villeneuve , HorsesAss and EFFin’ Unsound’s Carl Ballard and Peace Tree Farm’s blogging pioneer N in Seattle. Oh…they even permitted me a few words.

The show is 54:11, and is available here as an MP3:

[audio:http://www.podcastingliberally.com/podcasts/podcasting_liberally_sep_9_2008.mp3]

[Recorded live at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Special thanks to Confab creators Gavin and Richard for hosting PodcastingLiberally.]

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