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GOP pollster: Cantwell leads McGavick

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Speaking of Maria Cantwell… I know why I missed this tidbit — I was busy traveling that day — but I’m wondering why nobody in the MSM picked up on this Aug. 10 survey from Republican pollster Strategic Vision:

If the election for United States Senate were held today and the candidates were Maria Cantwell, the Democrat or Mike McGavick, the Republican, whom would you vote for?

Maria Cantwell [D] 46%
Mike McGavick [R] 38%
Undecided 16%

Yeah… yeah… I know, Cantwell is below the 50% mark, not exactly where an incumbent wants to be a year out from the election, but remember… this is a GOP pollster, and McGavick’s numbers barely rise above the hardcore Republican base that would blindly vote for anybody with an “R” next to their name on the ballot. (I call this the Will Baker Wing of the Republican Party.)

But perhaps the best indication that Republicans are more than a little uncomfortable about this poll is the fact that they’ve been so hush-hush about it. McGavick polls no higher than Jennifer Dunn, George Nethercutt or even Chris Vance did in a similar Strategic Vision matchup back in March. Hmmm. Perhaps the state GOP should take a closer look at Susan Hutchison?

League of Conservation Voters to support Cantwell with grassroots campaign

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The League of Conservation Voters, one of the nation’s most influential environmental groups, has enthusiastically endorsed Sen. Maria Cantwell for reelection to the US Senate. That Cantwell is the LCV’s first endorsement of the 2006 season is no accident; they also plan to support her reelection with an independent, grassroots campaign.

“LCV is proud to make its first endorsement of the 2006 election cycle for Senator Maria Cantwell,” said LCV President Deb Callahan. “Senator Cantwell is one of our nation’s strongest environmental leaders in Congress, fighting every day for the health, quality of life and pocketbooks of Washington families, willing to stand up to big corporate interests, and working tirelessly to protect our wild places for future generations. In the coming weeks and months, we look forward to mounting an aggressive campaign to help reelect Senator Cantwell to the U.S. Senate.”

Ms. Callahan also commented that LCV’s particularly early endorsement of Sen. Cantwell is because of her exemplary environmental record and leadership on behalf of Washington families. Senator Cantwell earned a 100% rating on LCV’s 2004 National Environmental Scorecard

When it comes to elections, perfect is the enemy of good

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I need to say something that no elected official or respectable journalist would dare utter (and that will surely prompt howls of derision from the Rossiphiles on the right.) The November 2004 election in King County…? It really wasn’t all that fucked up.

Oh sure… felons voted, provisionals were improperly scanned, and some ballots were misplaced, lost, and unreconciled… but relatively speaking, when compared to other jurisdictions in this and previous elections, the error rate was well within or below national averages. And unlike places like Florida or Ohio, there was no voter intimidation and no half-day long lines at urban polling places, purposely disenfranchising hundreds of thousands of voters.

I’m not dismissing some very real problems. Mistakes were made that can and should be fixed. But King County’s problems were duplicated in counties across the state, and compared to elsewhere in the nation, Washington elections are for the most part, clean, transparent and accurate. That’s the facts. I know it’s hard for Republicans to accept, but Democrats’ stranglehold on King County is due to the fact that voters prefer Democrats… not due to election day cheating.

And so when I read a headline in the Seattle Times like “Credibility on the line in Sept. vote“, it really pisses me off, because this is little more than a setup for failure.

All that should help restore confidence

Give to the American Red Cross

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Hurricane Katrina has weakened slightly, but is still tracking straight for New Orleans, and is expected to hit landfall as a borderline Category 4/5 storm. I hope that when I awake in the morning, the news is not nearly as bad as it could be. In the meanwhile, if you want to help, probably the best you can do is give to the American Red Cross.

UPDATE: New Orleans dodges a bullet… sort of

I know it may sound odd considering the pictures of destruction coming from the Big Easy, but the city was spared the catastrophe of a “perfect storm.” Katrina weakened to a Category 4 hurricane before landfall, and most significantly, just skirted New Orleans to the East, with the most severe winds just E/NE of the eye wall.

The storm surge, once projected to be as high as 28 feet in spots, has reportedly maxed out at 15 to 17 feet. At least one levee was breached, causing six to eight feet of water in some parts of the city, but far from the devastating flooding that could have occurred. Gusts of up to 150 mph ripped a chunk off the roof of the Superdome, the “shelter of last resort” for about 10,000 residents, but it remains structurally sound.

Katrina continues to weaken as it moves over land, and has now been downgraded to a Cat 3 storm, but it is still quite powerful, and extremely large, so its danger has far from passed. There are now reports of storm-spawned tornadoes throughout the area. No reports yet of deaths or injuries, but they are sure to come, and the storm will certainly have caused hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars worth damage… a financial cost that will touch us all, as the price of crude oil has now surged over $70 a barrel.

The American Red Cross is the private group best equipped to deal with this crisis, and they are asking for cash donations. So if you want to help out, I urge you to click on the link above.

The emerging progressive blogosphere

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I’m in self-referential mode, so I thought I’d point you towards a very interesting report on the progressive blogosphere from two of its most influential members, Chris Bowers of MyDD and Matt Stoller of Blogging of the President. The report is titled “Emergence of the Progressive Blogosphere: A New Force in American Politics“, and it discusses the dramatic rise of the progressive blogosphere, the relative success of both progressive and conservative bloggers, and how elected officials can make much better use of this new medium.

If you don’t have time to read the full 24-page report, I strongly recommend the excellent summary posted by Lynn Allen over at Evergreen Politics. It’s a quick read, and well worth a few minutes of your time.

It is interesting to note that in overall national traffic, the progressive blogosphere has managed to quickly surpass the impressive lead conservatives had as recently as a year ago… 24 of the top 40 political blogs are now progressive. But on the local front, conservatives still hold an overwhelming advantage. Here in WA state, this is still true; while (un)Sound Politics has seen its traffic decline to less than a third of its January 2005 peak, it still holds the top spot by a decided margin over the number two blog covering state and local politics: HorsesAss.org.

Unlike (u)SP, HA continues to see its traffic rise, with August likely to establish a new monthly high. Because I had not published my Site Meter stats, HA was not included in the report’s rankings, but glancing at today’s stats, my 20,643 weekly page views would have ranked HA at #62 among the top 100 progressive blogs… making it one of the highest ranked regional progressive blogs in the nation. Not bad considering my ambitious one-year goal was to average 200 readers a day. (If you’re curious about my stats, click on the Site Meter icon. For a variety of reasons, I’ve decided to make them public.)

Of course, more work remains to be done. Both the NW Topic Hotlist and the Pacific NW Portal are turning out to be great tools for promoting and expanding the region’s progressive blogosphere, and I’m planning some exciting changes here at HA over the coming months in my ongoing efforts to claw my way to the top of the local molehill. Still, it’s not the raw traffic that matters, but what we do with it. Like it or not, blogs are here to stay, and we have to make damn sure that we continue to wield at least as much influence as the other guys.

God to strike sinners in Big Easy?

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New Orleans has ordered a mandatory evacuation of all 485,000 residents, as Katrina, now a Category 5 hurricane, heads towards the city for a possible dead-on strike, with the storm surge devastatingly timed to hit at high tide. The city, which sits in a soggy bowl an average 6 feet below sea-level, will likely see flood waters overwhelm levees even if it escapes a direct hit. The storm surge could reach 28 feet, topped by 30-foot waves in some locations.

This could be the dreaded “500-year storm” that meteorologists have long feared, and which no levee system could possibly handle. In addition to the storm surge, Katrina currently packs sustained winds of up to 175 mph, and could drop over 15 inches of rain on the city as it passes through.

As we sit and watch and hope that New Orleans once again dodges a bullet, a couple thoughts come to mind. The first is the practical concern of how Louisiana will effectively deal with the aftermath of the hurricane, what with so many of its National Guard units currently fighting and dying in the streets of Iraq?

My second thought is a cautionary one, and selfishly strikes much closer to home. I have been constantly amazed during the ongoing debate over replacing the Alaska Way Viaduct, by those who assert that the earthquake risk has been over-blown. While Seattle has never in its brief history experienced the type of catastrophic quakes seen elsewhere, the seismologic record makes it clear that it has in the past, and most definitely will again in the future. Perhaps both Seattle and New Orleans will be spared their disaster for another 150 years… or perhaps it will strike tomorrow. And if it does, the Viaduct might not just pancake, but rather topple over onto the waterfront as the soil beneath it liquifies and the aging seawall collapses.

A major earthquake will strike. We cannot avoid it, nor accurately predict its timing. But like New Orleans, we can attempt to be prepared.

UPDATE:
Katrina is still strengthening, and tracking towards landfall just east of New Orleans, with gusts up to 200 mph. This hurricane is not just powerful, but extremely large, and could end up being the most powerful storm in recorded history… so powerful, that it is pushing the limits of existing models. If you know anybody in and around N.O. planning to ride out the storm, urge them to get out NOW!

Anti-gay church protests GI funerals

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One of the righties’ favorite ploys to pump up their own inflated sense of moral superiority, is to vilify the left — all of us — by pointing towards the individual actions of some reprehensible wacko. And so in the interest of turnabout is fair play, I bring you the fine folks of the Westboro Baptist Church:

Members of a church say God is punishing American soldiers for defending a country that harbors gays, and they brought their anti-gay message to the funerals Saturday of two Tennessee soldiers killed in Iraq.
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The church members carried signs and shouted things such as “God hates fags” and “God hates you.”

Hmm. Protesting at soldiers’ funerals. Well, I guess if anybody knows about the evils of sodomy, it’s gotta be this bunch of fucking assholes.

NW Topic Hotlist supports progressive blogosphere

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In case you haven’t noticed, I’ve added a new feature to the right-hand column of my home page: the NW Topic Hotlist.

The Hotlist culls headlines and summaries on major issues of the day, from some of the best progressive blogs in the Pacific Northwest. Up until now I’ve been a bit of mooch, snacking on links coming in from other Hotlist sites without returning the favor, but I’ve finally overcome my inertia and added the tiny line of Javascript that embeds the Hotlist into HA. It didn’t hurt. Really.

The Hotlist is the handiwork of Daniel Kirkdorffer of On The Road to 2008 (and regular participant in HA’s comment threads), and he’s recently posted an invitation to all comers to embed the Hotlist into your site as well. It’s a great way to share news and views from around the region, while supporting our ever expanding progressive blogosphere.

Spokane Diocese bankruptcy backfires

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Last December the Catholic Diocese of Spokane, WA filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in an effort to shield itself from $80 million in sexual abuse liabilities, claiming it had only $10 million in assets under its direct control. Now it looks like parishioners are going to pay for Spokane Bishop William Skylstad’s shameful legal maneuvers.

A federal bankruptcy judge ruled today that all the parish churches, parochial schools and other property of the Catholic Diocese of Spokane can be liquidated to pay victims of sexual abuse by priests.

The decision, expected to have ramifications for dioceses across the nation, is a major defeat for Spokane Bishop William Skylstad, who had argued that he did not control individual parishes and thus they were not available to cover settlement costs.

“It is not a violation of the First Amendment to apply federal bankruptcy law to identify and define property of the bankruptcy estate even though the Chapter 11 debtor is a religious organization,” U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Patricia Williams wrote in a 50-page decision.

“The disputed real property constitutes property of the estate,” she wrote.

Skylstad is the head of the US Conference of Catholic Bishops. Had his bankruptcy ploy succeeded, other dioceses facing similar sexual abuse claims surely would have followed suit in an effort to deny victims their financial settlements. But with this court decision, Skylstad has only succeeded in putting the liquidation decisions into the hands of a federal judge — any and all of the 82 parish churches and 16 parochial schools in 13 Eastern WA counties may now be sold off to settle victims’ claims.

Once again it is Spokane’s parishioners who will pay the price for the Diocese’s arrogance and neglect, but this court decision sends an important message to bishops elsewhere that they must face their legal obligations squarely, rather than relying on clever lawyers to shield them from the consequences of past mistakes.

If wishes were horses, Republicans would ride

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Via Daily Kos, I was drawn to a brief commentary by Rich Lowry on the Corner on National Review Online.

The president’s job approval ratings aren’t looking so great lately: 36%, ARG; 40% Harris; 45% Rasmussen. I’m prepared to believe that all these polls are flawed for some reason or other, but it’s clear that he’s sagging.

Yeah… and I’m prepared to believe that the Flying Spaghetti Monster created the universe.

Man… I hope all Republicans are in such a stunning state of denial, that they can’t see the forest for the colon polyps inches away from their eyeballs. If R’s are blaming their “sagging” poll numbers on the pollsters (all the pollsters) rather than their own disastrous policies, their dismal performance in office is destined to be duplicated at next year’s mid-term elections.

Lowry suggests much of Bush’s problems stem from the deteriorating war in Iraq (duh-uh), and on that front the polls are only getting worse. A new AP-Ipsos poll released today shows approval of Bush’s handling of the war at 37% (down from 41% in June,) while 58% disapprove. And these are no wishy-washy, blowing-in-the-wind type numbers. Only 20% of respondents “strongly approve” (plummeting from 26% in June), while a steady 45% “strongly disapprove.” Perhaps even more telling… 87% approve of public dissent against the war. (You know… like what that traitor Cindy Sheehan is doing down in Crawford, TX.)

Bush’s approval ratings are “sagging” lower than his mamma’s eighty-year-old tits, and Lowry’s solution? Come out in favor of something popular… like cracking down on immigration. Yup… what better way to drum up support for our war against brown people overseas, than to rile up fear and distrust of brown people back at home?

To Lowry, “this seems an obvious play”, but he doesn’t think Bush will do it, because Bush is a leader, and “leadership is about ignoring polls, doing hard things, etc.”

You have to give Bush credit–he’s the absolute opposite of Clinton. Clinton was in favor of small, popular things. Bush apparently likes to be in favor of big, unpopular things.

Um… and that’s a good thing?

As Armando astutely observes on Daily Kos:

“For the life of me, why these Republicans would want to compare Bush to Clinton escapes me. But they do.”

They certainly do.

UPDATE:
Whoops… looks like the Gallup Poll is flawed too: 40% job approval. This is Bush’s lowest rating ever, and the worst of any of the last seven presidents at this point in the second term, with the exception of Nixon during Watergate. Most troubling for Republicans, only one-third of independents approve of Bush’s performance. There goes the swing vote.

“Dear Palestinian Bomber”

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From the AP:

Sami Habbas was sifting through his stack of mail when he noticed a credit-card offer addressed to “Palestinian Bomber.”

The stunned Palestinian-American opened the letter that began with the salutation, “Dear Palestinian Bomber.”

“I thought it was a joke or something,” he said. “I’m very sad

Discovering the Discovery Institute

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It’s been a busy week. Yesterday, when I should have been pointing you towards Danny Westneat’s excellent column in the Seattle Times on so-called “intelligent design,” I spent a few hours cramming for my confrontation with Discovery Institute president Bruce Chapman on the John Carlson Show… and then the rest of the afternoon on an inspired rant about what we progressives really need to do to confront these partisan, fake-think-tanks. (Um… fight fake-fire with fake-fire.)

Anyway, Danny writes about Bob Davidson — a scientist, a doctor, and a nephrology professor at the UW medical school — and a devout Christian. He is also a former fellow at Seattle’s Discovery Institute, the driving force behind I.D.

Davidson says he was seeking a place where people “believe in a Creator and also believe in science.

“I thought it was refreshing,” he says.

Not anymore. He’s concluded the institute is an affront to both science and religion.

“When I joined I didn’t think they were about bashing evolution. It’s pseudo-science, at best … What they’re doing is instigating a conflict between science and religion.”

No doubt I was on the defensive for much of yesterday’s show; John made a point of that… he’s an good host who knows how to control the flow when it suits his purpose. And much of the push back against my critique focused on “the science”, which is funny really, because when it comes to I.D., there really isn’t any. Discovery wants schools to “teach the controversy”, but as I pointed out on the air, none exists. Evolution has pretty much been accepted science since the 1870’s, and natural selection since at least the 1940’s… and nothing has changed in the half-decade since Discovery first put forth their infamous “Wedge Document.”

Of course, I’m not a scientist, and Chapman (um… also not a scientist) made a point of emphasizing this in trying to discredit my critique, as did a couple of the callers. (Speaking of the callers… the failure of scientists to create life in the laboratory perhaps proves that scientists are not gods, not that one exists.)

But Davidson is a scientist.

“I’m kind of embarrassed that I ever got involved with this,” Davidson says.

He was shocked, he says, when he saw the Discovery Institute was calling evolution a “theory in crisis.”

“It’s laughable: There have been millions of experiments over more than a century that support evolution,” he says. “There’s always questions being asked about parts of the theory, as there are with any theory, but there’s no real scientific controversy about it.”

Davidson began to believe the institute is an “elaborate, clever marketing program” to tear down evolution for religious reasons. He read its writings on intelligent design

Rossi still at a lossi on I-912

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On Monday, my vigil to get David Irons to publicly state his position on I-912 ended when the Seattle P-I managed to coax a tepid statement opposing the anti-roads initiative. So I followed up by demanding that putative state GOP leader Dino Rossi answer the same question. (“Et tu, Dino?“) Well… a letter to the editor in today’s Seattle P-I summarizes the issue so nicely, I thought I’d push the limits of the fair use doctrine, and repeat it here.

Rossi must have opinion about gas tax

The great, unasked question: Where does Dino Rossi stand on Initiative 912 to repeal the gas-tax increase?

Rossi’s whole campaign focused on improving Washington’s business climate. Business interests strongly oppose I-912 because it repeals funding for long-overdue transportation improvements. This suggests Rossi would oppose I-912.

But his failed legal quest for an election do-over was repeatedly invoked by I-912’s talk-radio sponsors to motivate their signature-gathering troops and “send Democrats a message.” This implies Rossi’s support. I suspect Rossi still refuses to declare a position on initiatives, just as he did during his 2004 campaign. With I-912, he risks alienating one of his two bases: business or anti-tax conservatives. So what’s the point?

Your Monday editorial answers that question: “When mobility, traffic congestion and thousands of local jobs are at stake, we’d hope for stronger leadership.”

We know Rossi will run for public office again. In the meantime, he appears to have become the de-facto leader of this state’s Republican Party. Isn’t he the one person with the best chance of saving the 2005 transportation investment should he speak out against the job-killing I-912?

David Groves
Bainbridge Island

Thanks David… well said. I’ll be looking for Dino’s letter to the editor in reply.

In addition to demanding that Rossi publicly state whether he supports I-912, I also posed the same question to Irons’ colleagues on the King County Council. Three have responded thus far: Dwight Pelz and Julia Patterson are opposed to I-912, and Raymond Shaw Reagan Dunn supports it. No surprises there.

Patterson was the only one of the three to provide an explanation, and I think it is worth sharing, as it makes clear to residents of South King County some of what they will lose should the gas tax repeal pass.

I will be voting against I-912 because I support all the South King County transportation projects that the 2005 state transportation package funds. I believe we need the additional lanes on 405 between Renton and Tukwila, the improvements to the 405/167 interchange, and the completion of the HOV lanes on SR 167. All are funded in the 2005 state transportation package, and will not be completed if I-912 passes. These projects are important to the residents of South King County and will help reduce congestion and keep our economy strong.

This, of course, is exactly the type of effort to educate voters that we need from our elected officials and other civic leaders if we are to have a hope of defeating I-912. It’s the type of bold leadership one would hope candidates like Irons and Rossi would display if they really want to prove that they deserve the public’s trust.

And one final note. While Shaw Dunn didn’t provide an explanation, his prompt and terse response to whether he supported I-912 did prove that he is an attentive HA reader… and has a bit of a sense of humor to boot.

Yes.

-Raymond

He’s the new kid on the block, and I don’t much care for his politics thus far, but this certainly scores him a couple of points in my book.

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