HorsesAss.Org

Daniel Kirkdorffer has the latest on the ballot counting in the Burner/Reichert race, so really… why bother repeating it here?

Though I do have a couple things to add about those bursting ballot bags that have been widely reported. First, these votes will be counted. A similar problem occurred during the primary, and all those ballots were counted.

Second, these ballots absolutely should be counted. Over on (u)SP my beer-buddy Stefan writes: “What would Democrats do without ballots of questionable provenance?” Questionable provenance my ass. Of course, that’s just his fallback in case Darcy wins.

The fact is, these are absentee ballots, sealed in their envelopes, that were dropped off at the polls on election day, and for which there was a chain of custody from the polling place to the cage. It has been suggested that because the seals were broken on these bags, ballots could have been added after the polls closed, but again… these are absentee ballots, sealed within their envelopes, that must have their signatures verified before the ballots are counted.

Besides, the real risk with the broken seals is not ballots being added, but ballots being removed.

Seattle Initiative 91, which prevents the use of taxpayer money to subsidize arenas (ie a new Key Arena), passed with an overwhelming 74 percent of the vote. To which the Seattle Times says:

This initiative, no matter how hearty its public support, is lousy policy…

(Of course, if I-920 had passed by a hair, the Times would have praised the wisdom of voters, but, well, what do you expect from the Times?)

Sure, maybe I-91 is lousy policy. But then, isn’t that also true of most initiatives?

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want to spend a couple hundred million dollars subsidizing the Sonics, but I-91, a totally inflexible measure that could come back to bite us in the future, was the wrong way to stop it. And even initiatives based on sound policy and with good intent are usually crappily written, chock full of vague language and unforeseen consequences.

Let’s face it, some guy sitting in his bonus room churning out initiatives for an up or down vote is a just plain stupid way to legislate. The Times basically came out and said that 74 percent of Seattle voters — you know, the readers it’s tasked with informing — were wrong. Me… I think it’s the process that’s gone to hell.

TANGENTIAL ASIDE:
When the Sonics finally head off to Oklahoma City, no doubt there will be many fans throughout the region cursing us “Seattle liberals” for our obstinance. They might not want to pay for our “gold plated tunnels,” but they have no problem with Seattle taxing itself to build an arena that serves the entire region. So think of this is an important civics lesson to be learned by the region’s suburban and ex-urban isolationists: we all have a shared stake in maintaining urban Seattle as a healthy and vibrant, economic and cultural core.

I grew up in a suburb outside of Philadelphia, but I always considered myself a Philadelphian, as did all our neighbors. Even people who grew up across the river in Cherry Hill and other New Jersey suburbs tended to identify themselves as Philadelphians.

Yet ask a traveling Puget Soundian where they are from and they’re at least as likely to say Bellevue or Renton or Redmond as they are to simply reply Seattle. There are kids who grow up on the Eastside whose parents rarely allow them to venture into the big, bad city except for sporting events or other special occasions; for some of our region’s youth, their first days at the UW must seem like visiting some strange, foreign land.

I hate to break it to you folks, but Bellevue is Seattle. Renton and Redmond are both Seattle. Mercer Island? Most definitely Seattle. And the same is true in reverse.

Perhaps that’s one of the things we saw in Tuesday’s election when traditionally Republican Eastside districts were virtually swept by the Democrats: a growing regionalism in which suburban voters recognize how much in common they have with their urban neighbors, sharing both values and interests.

Or maybe not.

It’s Post-Election Gloating Special tonight on “The David Goldstein Show” on Newsradio 710-KIRO, from 7PM to 10PM.

7PM: How will the Democratic Party ever survive those crazy “nutroots”…? Democrats won big, big, BIG on Tuesday, retaking both the US House and Senate. And while some people say same of the credit should go to us bloggers and internet activists, others say us crazy, far-left, whacked-out “nutroots” are going to be the death of Democratic Party. Joan McCarter, better known as frontpage blogger McJoan on that crazy, far-left, whacked-out blog Daily Kos joins me to give her perspective on Tuesday’s election and the role of the netroots now and in the future. Oh.. and she’ll also do some gloating.

8PM: Still want to move to Canada? Tuesday was only a start, and I’m pretty damn sure we’ll take a couple of steps backwards on our way to a true progressive majority. Bill Scher of the blog Liberal Oasis is in town promoting his new book “Wait! Don’t Move to Canada!“, and he’ll be joining me in the studio to argue for his “stay-and-fight strategy to win back America.” And of course, we’ll do some gloating as well.

9PM: What’s the matter with Washington? As big an ass-whooping as the Democrats delivered nationally, that’s nothing compared to the clean-sweep in statewide and legislative races, where the Dems took near super-majorities in both houses. Progressive Majority of Washington’s Dean Nielsen will call in at the top of the hour to give us an update on the legislative races, and former Republican state Rep. Toby Nixon will join me in the studio for the entire hour to talk about what led to his party’s stunning defeat (including his own) and what he expects from the fattened Democratic majority in Olympia. Will Democrats overreach? Will they be too timid? Toby will tell us. (And since Toby is such a stand-up guy, I’ll try not to do too much gloating.

Tune in tonight (or listen to the live stream) and give me a call: 1-877-710-KIRO (5476).

I spent most of the past couple days mucking around with WordPress 2.0, building a new template so that I could finally upgrade my cranky old copy of 1.2 and deal with comment spam assault I’m under. And things went pretty darn well… until I ran the 1.2 to 1.5 upgrade script late last night, and the mySQL server crashed. And then crashed again.

And I think, it’s all your fault. I’m guessing the problem is that my database is just plain huge… over 100 MB of comments alone.

So if anybody has a solution short of jettisoning the comment threads, please let me know.

In the meanwhile, I’ll delete the comment spam when I get around to deleting the comment spam. If people have a problem with that, don’t read the comments. But if I keep getting complaints about the spam via email or comment, I might as well just turn off comments altogether.

Light posting this weekend as I focus on some system maintenance. So talk amongst yourselves.

Yesterday I poked fun at my beer-buddy Stefan for posting the following paranoid fantasy:

I heard a story from an informed source that someone walked into a polling place in Bellevue and stuffed a bunch of “flood ballots” into an Accuvote. They have lawyers looking into this.

Well, KCRE has finished its investigation, and it turns out that Stefan was right: somebody did stuff a bunch of ballots into an Acuvote. Um… into the slot on the side of the cart, that is. You know, the one where you are supposed to stuff absentee and provisional ballots.

The Republican poll worker who reported the incident insisted that this was suspicious because one person shouldn’t have had more than one ballot, but of course one can easily imagine a circumstance where somebody might gather up absentee ballots from family, neighbors or co-workers, and drop them off at a polling station or a post office.

So I guess, where there’s smoke there’s, um, smoke.

I’ll be at Town Hall doing the Seattle Follies again, next Thursday:

Seattle Follies: The Brawl at Town Hall
Thursday, November 16 , 7:30 PM

Join Seattle City Councilmember Sally Clark as she hosts the post-election edition of Seattle Follies. Joining her, and providing slashing and trenchant commentary on who really won and lost in the vote are blogger and humorist David Goldstein of HorsesAss.org, speaking from the left, and John Moe, public radio personality and author of the recently published book, Conservatize Me, promoting the view from the right. “The Brawl at Town Hall” will feature these two in a verbal boxing match with timed rounds, refereed by Ms. Clark. Councilmember Richard Conlin, former chair of the Council’s transportation committee and a champion of mass transit and sustainable neighborhoods, offers his tongue-in-cheek alternatives to the current and controversial proposals for the new 520 bridge. Special guests are the great Irish musicians Dale Russ and Finn MacGinty, with Rob Jones tickling the ivories throughout the evening. As always, the audience plays, “Who Said What,” the currents events game with chocolate prizes for the winners. Beer and wine available. Downstairs at Town Hall, enter on Seneca Street.

Tickets & info
Advance tickets are $12/$10 Town Hall members, seniors & students only at www.brownpapertickets.com or 1800/838-3006. $15/$13 at the door.

FYI, I was originally supposed to go up against John Carlson, but he had a scheduling conflict. Given the outcome of Tuesday’s election, I think it would have been a lot more fun going up against a genuine conservative like Carlson than a fake one like Moe.

I seem to be having some unexplained mail server problems today, that is either delaying delivery or not delivering emails at all. So don’t expect me to be too responsive to email today.

Also, for those of you complaining in the comment threads about comment spam… shut up. I occasionally get waves of comment spam that come in faster than I can delete them, and my cranky old copy of WordPress just can’t defend itself. I need to spend some time upgrading to a new version to deal with this problem, but in the meanwhile, I’ll delete the spam when I get to it.

Back in June of 2005, before most Washington voters knew his name, Strategic Vision showed Mike McGavick trailing Sen. Maria Cantwell 50% to 36% in their first head to head poll. By August 2005, McGavick had climbed to 38%. Fifteen months and untold millions later, McGavick has finally reached the magic 39% mark.

Hmm. These are Will Baker numbers — barely a few points higher than my dog would get merely by putting an “R” next to her name on the ballot. I mean, damn… even Richard Pope managed to get 44% of the vote this year. (Keep your spirits up Richard, maybe tenth time’s the charm.)

Not that this was much of a surprise, as McGavick never managed to gain any traction. Even when a couple polls briefly showed the margin closing this summer, it was solely due to Cantwell’s numbers coming down, while McGavick continued to bump his head on the low 40’s.

Why? Well yeah, there was that big blue wave thing — but McGavick was always a sucky candidate running a sucky campaign, and a quick scan through my previous posts suggests he never really had a chance, whatever the political climate.

Take a look. I come off as a pretty smart guy:

April 19, 2005, on reports that Mike McGavick, Rick White and Chris Vance were all scrambling to get Karl Rove’s endorsement:

I’m not really concerned which of the three the voters Rove ultimately chooses, as it’s hard to take seriously a field that includes Vance as a viable candidate. I’ll be the first to admit that Cantwell is no Patty Murray, and should be vulnerable… but if these crappy candidates are the best the state GOP Karl Rove can come up with, it’s gonna be a cakewalk.

July 16, 2005:

I just don’t think defeating Cantwell will be as easy as the Republican faithful think it will. Apart from Rossi, all other GOP hopefuls trailed Cantwell by double digits in a recent Republican poll… and after a slow start, the Senator now reports a $3 million head start in her campaign account. And it doesn’t really matter who the GOP throws up against her, if she’s smart, Cantwell herself will all but ignore her opponent, choosing to run against Frist, DeLay, Rove, Bush and the right-wing Republican hegemony in DC.

It is true that Cantwell has not been the most visible of senators… mostly because she is simply a policy wonk, genuinely uncomfortable with shameless self-promotion. She is also a true moderate on most issues, and as such simply can’t generate exciting headlines like some of her more liberal (and, um… media savvy) colleagues. But her moderate politics and understated style work both ways, making her very difficult to attack. As tough as it is for Cantwell to generate real passion within some progressives, it will be equally tough for her opponent to generate passion against her, outside of the core Republican base.

Democrats will rally to Cantwell because they understand what is at stake nationally, and WA’s moderates and independents who gave both Patty Murray and John Kerry decisive victories last November, will need to be given a good reason to dump Cantwell in 2006.

I’m not sure a multimillionaire Safeco CEO can give them that reason.

July 18, 2005:

It’s hard to imagine how the Republicans are going to present a multi-millionaire insurance company executive who proudly advocates shipping jobs overseas, as a “man of the people.” But you know they’re going to try.

I hear some righties snidely claim that they’re going to force Cantwell to run on her record. Well I hate to burst their bubble, but McGavick has a record too, and it ain’t gonna look so pretty by the time November, 2006 comes around.

July 21, 2005:

I continue to wonder if McGavick, a man with a long record as an insurance industry lobbyist and executive is really the right person to run in WA state against Cantwell, a successful executive herself? Do Rove and Dole and the NRSC strategists really understand Washington state? As one Republican consultant suggests, maybe not.

“What people think in the Beltway and what goes on back home are two different things, and there’s a disconnect there.”

Hmm… the same kind of disconnect that labeled the politically diminutive George Nethercutt a “giant killer”…?

December 5, 2005:

The GOP had counted on an unpopular Cantwell being an easy target, but now it seems clear that McGavick is not only going to have to sell himself to WA voters, he’s going to have to make a strong case for tossing out Cantwell as well. And with Bush’s approval ratings in the toilet, and the GOP leadership not far behind, it’s gonna be pretty tough making the argument that we need to give the president one more Republican vote in the Senate.

Perhaps this partially explains why his fellow Republicans aren’t lining up to challenge McGavick for the nomination?

December 15, 2005, on Sen. Cantwell’s rising approval numbers:

There was a time when state R’s expected the national party to pour lavish sums into this race, but it’s beginning to look like that money would be better spent defending Representatives Dave Reichert and Cathy McMorris.

December 29, 2005:

The problem for McGavick is that contrary to popular belief, Christian conservative voter turnout can be pretty soft, especially when the Republican candidate gives them little to get excited about. And as much as McGavick needs to draw votes from Dems and independents, he also needs a strong showing from the GOP base.

March 2, 2006, on McGavick’s announcement that “civility” would be a central theme of his campaign:

Today’s event

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King and Pierce counties have now reported their latest results from WA-08. Dave Reichert’s lead over Darcy Burner has expanded slightly to 3120 votes.

However, I am now absolutely confident that the race will narrow substantially over the next few days as King County continues to tabulate over the holiday weekend… and Pierce doesn’t report again until Monday.

(Oh… and I still expect the race to narrow.)

There seems to be a lot of confusion over the vote count in WA-08 — even the utltra-reliable Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo got it wrong — so let’s clarify a few things.

First, WA-08 spans King and Pierce Counties; over the past two elections about 81 percent of the votes have come from King, about 19 percent from Pierce. Currently Darcy Burner is leading in King County by about 0.75 percent, and losing Pierce by about 13 percent. Dave Reichert has been holding about a 2,700 vote lead.

Second, when the King and Pierce County results pages say 100% of precincts have reported, they are only referring to the poll votes, which will account for only around 20 percent of the total votes cast. The vast majority of votes were cast by mail.

Things don’t get any easier from there. Pierce reports that it has 65,000 ballots left to count, and King reports 189,000, but as we learned in 2004, these are only estimates and could even now be off by the tens of thousands, while thousands more ballots are still arriving every day. To further complicate the math, we have no idea how many of the remaining ballots actually fall within the boundaries of WA-08. In 2004 WA-08 accounted for about 30 percent of all King County ballots and about 20 percent of those cast in Pierce — but the absentee ballots are counted in no particular order, so it is quite possible that WA-08 is significantly over or under represented in the current count.

So how many ballots are really left to count? Who knows? If you assume that ballots counted thus far have been evenly distributed geographically, and you go by the ballots left to count reports, there should be about 57,000 WA-08 ballots left to count in King and about 13,000 in Pierce… but that just strikes me as way too low. This would produce a total turnout in WA-08 of about 223,000, compared to 336,499 in 2004 (a presidential election year and an open seat) and 203,335 in 2002 (a year when popular incumbent Jennifer Dunn faced no serious competition.) I find it hard to believe that turnout would be closer to 2002 than to 2004. But who knows?

And then there are the provisional ballots. Probably numbering in excess of 10,000 in King County alone. Just like in recounts, provisionals tend to favor Democrats, because let’s face it… on average, we simply have more trouble voting. These will be the last ballots to be counted, and could produce a several hundred vote surge for Burner at the very end.

So here’s my not very bold guess: only 40 to 60 percent of ballots have already been counted. That leaves plenty of room for Burner to erase a 2,700 vote deficit.

As I wrote in the previous post, I wouldn’t be surprised if WA-08 ends up in a recount. And we all know what happened the last time we had one of those.

So I’m particularly wary about allowing the conspiracy theorists to get their frame established before the rest of us realize there’s anything to theorize about. Take for example this little paranoid fantasy my new beer buddy Stefan tossed off late election night, almost as an aside:

I heard a story from an informed source that someone walked into a polling place in Bellevue and stuffed a bunch of “flood ballots” into an Accuvote. They have lawyers looking into this.

Hmm. Stefan doesn’t tell us exactly what his source is informed by, but it doesn’t seem to be reality. As KCRE spokesperson Bobbie Egan points out in Stefan’s own comment thread, a so-called “flood ballot” is merely a plain paper printout of a sample ballot on King County’s web page, and as such:

There is no way for ballot tabulation equipment to count a simple Web page. Only a ballot, properly programmed for the specific election by King County Elections could be read by the equipment.

I’d wager that a slight majority of Washingtonians still believe that Democrats likely stole the governor’s mansion from Dino Rossi, a bullshit misconception built entirely of tiny little turd pellets of untruth like this one. Left unrefuted, public opinion gets shaped by a “where there’s smoke there’s fire” mentality. Two years ago the PR war was pretty much over before most of us knew it had started, but KCRE seems to have learned its lesson — it is very heartening to see Egan proactively refuting even the stupidest rumors.

Both King and Pierce Counties updated their returns for WA-08, and while the margins have started to tighten, Dave Reichert continues to maintain about a 2,700 vote lead.

That said, there are many more ballots left to count in King than in Pierce, which historically only accounts for about 19 percent of the district’s total vote, and if this race follows the usual pattern, we should expect to see the margin continue to tighten as the votes come in, with Burner gradually eating away at Reichert’s lead. Whether she gains enough to overtake Reichert, well… that’s where the drama is.

You’ll notice that both campaigns have been pretty quiet today, not wanting to play the expectations game. I’m guessing that’s because neither campaign really knows which way this one’s going. Provisional ballots tend to substantially favor Democrats, and those will be the last to be counted, so don’t be surprised to see a sudden swing of several hundred votes towards Burner during the final days of the count.

I’m smelling a recount.

UPDATE:
Just to clarify: we don’t know exactly, because ballots are still coming in, but we’ve only counted about 60 percent of the ballots thus far, maybe less. So this thing is far from over.