The Seattle City Council has committed to defunding the police department by 50%. Will replacing police duties with people from other city departments work? Will it provide better service? Will it reduce police shootings and other escalation of force? Will it reduce crime? I don’t know. But the status quo is not working.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
Tim Eyman is a horse’s ass. But he’s also the only one of the Republicans running for governor who I had any idea about. Who else is running? Wasn’t there some guy who wasn’t going to enforce gun laws? Is he doing anything recentlOHGOD.
In a long-running lawsuit, a woman accuses police and deputies in Ferry County of failing to properly investigate when she reported a pattern of rape and molestation spanning 12 years of her childhood.
Among the defendants is Loren Culp, who is now the police chief in the town of Republic and a Republican candidate for Washington governor. The lawsuit alleges Culp and two other law enforcement officers intimidated the victim, threatened to charge her with making false claims and failed to report her allegations to child welfare authorities as required by law.
Of course a lawsuit filed isn’t the same as all of the accusations proven. But yikes.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
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My previous analysis of the Biden-Trump head-to-head polls was way back in early June, in part because the dynamics of the race didn’t seem to be changing much. Trump is slowly slipping in the polls, as the COVID-19 epidemic worsens in the U.S., as Trump resists movements for police reforms, and as we learn bizarre things like Trump not responding to Russian bounties on American soldiers in Afghanistan.
After 100,000 simulated elections, the results are not surprising. Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 375 to Trump’s 163 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.
Basically, if the election was today, Biden would win in a landslide.
Trump has a serious electoral college problem. Many swing states are now trending strongly for Biden, including Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Other swing states are pretty solidly in Biden’s camp, like Arizona, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Even Ohio trends slightly toward Biden. Iowa and Texas are in toss-up territory, but leaning slightly toward Trump. Remarkable!
The trend over the past couple months are clear from from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from Jul 2019 to the present, and, at each point in time, including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
There is, of course, plenty of time to turn this trend around. Still, Trump’s bizarre and impulsive behavior will make doing that very difficult.
I saw my parents for the first time since the quarantine started over the weekend. We had a socially distanced, masked walk and a picnick. It was a relatively low risk thing, but it was still nervous making. I was glad to see them, but still I don’t know.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
Now This: Sen. Mark Warner on cleaning up national parks.
BuzzFeed: How Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos will make 1 million dollars during this 7 minute video.
The Dotard Трамп and Other Immorals, Incompetents, and Incontenents:
Samantha Bee: How to save the Postal Service
Now This: The fight to expand vote-by-mail before election day.
Trevor: The CIA is hiring.
Black Lives Matter:
Hasan Minhaj : Why doing taxes is so hard.
The Foundation Singers: NOVEMBER!
ТрампPlague:
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.
Now This: Who is Ron DeSantis? (Narrated by Yedoye Travis)
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
It’s depressing how the CHOP/CHAZ is ending. There was so much generated there. Art and community. A garden. But when self-declared security forces kill a Black child it’s tough to support the place.
None of this excuses the actions of SPD in the last month or so. None of this means tear gassing protesters is retroactively OK or that we can’t defund the police. Black lives still matter.
(Also wash your hands right now.)
(At some point I will get back on track with these.)
The Supreme Court had another goodish ruling (pdf, I haven’t read it yet since I’m on lunch) in a high profile case. I am still concerned that Roberts is a swing vote in these decisions.
It’s definitely good that we’re winning these (for lack of a better phrase) culture war cases. But the court ruled on an exact same law a few years ago. It stinks that we have to play defense. If Justice Kagan (or Garland) were the swing vote, it would probably be on better cases.
Anyway, go wash your hands right now.
Hasan Minaj and AOC discuss the Green New Deal
Stephen and Jon: Joe Biden, humbled by grief, may be the leader America needs right now
ТрампPlague:
Hasan Minhaj: We’re doing elections wrong
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses
Black Lives Matter:
WaPo: House passes bill to make D.C. the 51st state.
Samantha Bee: Tarana Burke on the connection between police brutality and sexual violence
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Forgot about a thread today. Here’s a limerick in honor of mask wearing being mandatory in Washington starting today.
.
You really should wear a mask, it
Is not much of a thing to ask, it
Will be a breeze,
And will slow the disease.
It might even keep you out of a casket.
.
Also, please wash your hands right now.
I am glad that new rules for face masks are going into effect on Friday (pdf). It seems like a good public health measure. As with when it was Yakima County, I would prefer that this be on the government and employers rather than on individuals. I also hope you don’t call the police on some random person not wearing one.
Still, the coronavirus is spreading too much and some of you are not masking up. Come on.
Also, wash your hands right now.
It stinks that Governor Inslee has to issue an order to wear masks for Yakima County. But it is the correct thing to do. I would prefer the state put the mandate on businesses or made sure masks are available, rather than it fall to individuals. Although, I don’t know what the government’s power to force companies to act or local governments to spend money.
In any event, wash your hands right now.
Samantha Bee: The Republican campaign of voter suppression, Pt. 1.
Samantha Bee: The Republican campaign of voter suppression, Pt. 2.
Robert Reich: Seven ways 2020 has exposed America
SCOTUS Surprises:
The Daily Show: FAUX News’s law & order experts
Bruce W. Nelson: I know a wrestling coach who’ll kick your butt (a Ted Cruz song).
ТрампPlague:
happy @BarackObama day, president bunker boy @realDonaldTrump pic.twitter.com/lNDTs2lXzn
— Courtney Jaye (@TropicaliJaye) June 14, 2020
Trevor: Stacey Abrams—“Our time is now” and ending voter suppression.
Black Lives Matter:
Full Frontal: Meet reference man.
Foundation Singers: “Farewell far-right!” Hannity and Murdoch meet Billy Joel:
John Oliver: Facial recognition.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
King County is in Phase Two of the coronavirus response. The link has what various types of businesses can do. I am still pretty nervous about any indoor gathering for the foreseeable future. Like, you’re only as safe as the worst person around. And card rooms seem particularly no good. Ick.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
Man, I don’t know if it’s just me getting older or something to do with the quarantine, but I am not sleeping well at all. I am still going to sleep and getting up at the same time as before. But now I am just exhausted all the time.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
Cases of COVID-19 are increasing in Washington. It seems like this is to do with Memorial Day. Grand reopening maybe grand reclosing.
I don’t know if we’ll see future spikes based on the protests. It being outside, with masks, and in some cases spaced out, mitigates the spread. But big crowds and not always being able to keep distance isn’t great. I assume that we would have started hearing about cases if they were happening in large numbers.
Anyway, stay safe and wash your hands right now.
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