I am glad that Tacoma is taking the death of Manuel Ellis at the hands of a Tacoma police officer seriously. It seems to have taken a video (and the work of many people on the ground). Still I hope his family and community get some kind of justice.
And please wash your hands right now.
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It has been mid-May since I published one of these analyses. back then, Biden led Trump in the electoral college with a mean of 348 to 190 votes.
Now, with over 40 new polls, Biden still leads. In the 10,000 simulated elections, Biden won all 10,000 times. Biden received (on average) 354 to Trump’s 184 electoral votes. If the election was today, we would expect Biden to win with a greater than 99.9% probability.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
The other day, a helicopter was circling over my neighborhood. It was during the day, and not particularly close to any protest that I was aware of. The urban core has more helicopters since the George Floyd murder.
Anyway, a crow that lives in one of the trees near my apartment and that crow was not having it. It stayed cawing at the helicopter for like an hour. Wir wir wir. Caw caw caw. Going to protest kind of feels like being that crow. It may or may not be making a difference, but it would be worse to say nothing.
This isn’t a great metaphor, but it would be great if you wash your hands right now.
Dear Mayor Durkan (cc Chief Best),
While I have many problems with the police response to the protests over the weekend, this email is about one aspect. I read with horror about the rifles that briefly went missing on Saturday. Shame on the city for bringing rifles to a protest.
Were the police planning on getting into a shootout with protesters? However much property damage and calamity there may have been, there is no situation where having rifles is an improvement. It is horrible policy on its own. It is also bad symbolism at a protest of deadly police violence. I urge you to not bring rifles to future civilian protests.
Thank You
Carl Ballard
(Not included in the letter, wash your hands right now.)
Lauren Mayer: “One Plate at a Time”.
Bill Maher: All bets are off
ТрампPlague:
Now This: Michelle Obama surprises students engaged in voter registration.
Hasan Minhaj: The legal marijuana industry is rigged
Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.
Black Lives Matter:
Robert Reich: Robert Reich’s advice to the Class of 2020.
Vice News: Navajo Nation may finally get a better shot at voting in the presidential election
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
A few months after the initial need, this week the stimulus package finally got help to me. The stimulus check arrived. And, more important to me, the company I work for finally had its PPP loan approved. So that’s good.
It is still frustrating. These things should have happened sooner. I have enough savings and if worst came to worst, I could have moved in with family. So the delay wasn’t bad for me (except for the stress of not knowing about my job) but it really should have been faster for people who needed it right away.
Anyway, go wash your hands right now.
Lauren Mayer: It’s not nice to screw Mother Nature.
Stephen chats with Joe Biden, Part I.
Stephen chats with Joe Biden, Part II.
Hasan Minhaj: What happens if you can’t pay rent?
Roll Call: Doggy doo, rucksacks and Starbucks—Congressional hits and misses of the week.
ТрампPlague:
Bill Maher: New Rule—Prime boss.
Winlar: Strip mall zoo.
Jonathan Mann: Climb the rope! Thanks, China (Ben Sasse Commencment remix).
Trevor: President Obama speaks to the Class of 2020.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Stop sweeping homeless encampments. Gah. There are no good solutions until we can build a lot more housing. But Jesus Christ on the cross, can we not? Especially in a pandemic, but even after.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
Good for AG Ferguson for getting 2 gyms to close during the stay home order. Honestly, I couldn’t imagine a worse place to choose to be than at the gym right now. Can’t wait to share equipment with people who are heavily breathing, indoors, and depending on the layout maybe impossible to social distance. One of the gyms says that it’s taking precautions, but still ick.
Anyway, wash your hands right now.
Ti’s very dispiriting that Washington state has hit 1000 confirmed coronavirus dead. Social distancing and hand washing have slowed down the spread. But still, here we are. It’s better than if it had happened weeks or a month ago.
Anyway wash your hands right now.
Samantha Bee: RoboSam and the rise of telemedicine.
The Daily Show: A message for the graduation class of 2020.
John Oliver: USPS.
Jonathan Mann: You chose Alex Jones.
Vox: Why beef is the worst food for the climate.
TрампPlague:
Dulcé Sloan: Why should you fill out the 2020 census?
Barack and Michelle Obama crash a virtual town hall.
BuzzFeed: Everything you need to know about murder hornets in 6 minutes.
The Daily Show: Womansplained—The wage gap, female representation & the E.R.A.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Now that Darryl is doing the polling analysis, I want to remind you that you are a participant in the system. and family. Seeing the polls can make the election seem like it’s a force of nature. But the good news is that you can make a difference. You can donate. You can make calls. You can write about the candidates online or a letter to the editor. Send a postcard to a voter. Talk to your friends.
You are also a participant in washing your hands so wash them right now.
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Biden is still leading in today’s analysis. Last week, the score was 359 to 179 electoral votes (on average). Today, after 10,000 simulated elections, Biden receives, on average 348 to Trump’s 190 electoral votes.
The difference largely arises from Ohio, where one poll has dropped out and one new poll has been released. Now the three current polls give Trump a 51.3% to 48.7% advantage over Biden, suggesting he would win the state now with an 82% probability. Here is the polling in Ohio to date:
That 4th Marist poll with Biden up +4 dropped out and a new Emerson University poll was released with Trump up +3. Biden won every poll taken in 2018 and 2019, but the candidates have led in two polls apiece in 2020.
Florida is another interesting case. The collection of 4 current polls gives Biden a 51.6% to 48.4% lead over Trump, suggesting Biden would win the state now with a 98.8% probability. The long-term polling shows somewhat mixed results, but Biden leads in the most recent 5 polls. So far, in Florida polling, Biden has led in 13, Trump in 6 and there is one tie.
Finally, let’s look at Wisconsin. You may recall that in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by less than 23,000 votes. With only one current poll in hand, Biden leads Trump 57.2% to 42.8%, suggesting Biden would win a Wisconsin election now with a probability greater than 99%. The large margin is misleading in the larger contest of the total polling for the state:
There have been 31 polls testing a Biden–Trump election, all taken since March of 2019. Biden has led in 25 of the polls and Trump in six. But most of the leads are well within the margin of error. Biden has led in the last 6 consecutive polls. The net result is that Wisconsin still feels like a swing state with an edge for Biden.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
King County’s directive for mask wearing goes into effect on May 18. But if you can, please start wearing masks before that. You can help make the community safer.
As a Downtown resident, I find it somewhat amusing that “outdoors where social distancing is difficult” is district from “outdoors.” There are a lot of people outside regardless.
Anyway, please wash your hands right now.
Are you tired? I am. For the last few days, my neighbor’s alarm has been going off at 10:00 PM the last few days. It’s loud enough to keep me up. I knocked on her door over the weekend, but nobody came to the door. I know that she has family in the area, so she’s probably fine. Should I ask the super to check on it?
Anyway, go wash your hands right now.
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