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A new poll in the Washington state gubernatorial race was released yesterday. The SurveyUSA poll conducted from June 7th through the 9th asked 637 likely voters who they would vote for in an election held now. Governor Christine Gregoire received 50.4% of the “votes”, Dino Rossi received 46.9%, “other” received 1.4%, and only 1.3% were undecided.

The +3.5% lead for Gregoire is substantially narrower than her +11% lead in a May 12 Rasmussen poll. But the current result falls squarely in line with all other recent polls: a late-April Elway poll that gave Gregoire a +5% lead, a mid-April SurveyUSA poll that gave Gregoire a +4% lead, and a Rassmussen poll in late March that gave Gregoire a +1% lead.

The current SurveyUSA poll results are within the 4.0% margin of error, which means that, given a sample of only 637 likely voters, the probability that Gregoire’s lead is “real” (in an election held now) is something under 95%. This is commonly called a “statistical tie,” but we can do better than that. We can estimate the probability that Gregoire would beat Rossi (and vice versa) in an election held now.

I simulated a million gubernatorial elections of 637 voters each election. Each voter in each election had a 50.4% chance of voting for Gregoire, a 46.9% chance of voting for Rossi, and a 3.5% chance of voting for neither.

Gregoire won 824,097 of the elections, and Rossi took 9,687. In other words, the poll results suggest that, for an election held now, Gregoire would have an 83.2% probability of winning the election and Rossi would have a 16.8% chance of winning the election.

Here is the distribution of number of votes (converted into percentages) from the million elections (Rossi victories are those to the left of the red “tie” line, Gregoire victories are those to the right):

The good news for Rossi is that this poll places him back in the running, unlike the previous Rasmussen result. Rossi may have been “unlucky” during that poll—that is, just by chance, perhaps too many Gregoire supporters were polled. Alternatively, Gregoire may have experienced a large surge in support last month.

The bad news for Rossi is that Gregoire has held the lead for six polls in a row now, and has led in seven out of the eight polls taken this year. (The last time Rossi led was in a March 5th Rasmussen poll, in which he held a slim +1% advantage.)

With poll after poll showing Gregoire up, it becomes very difficult to attribute her leads to chance. In other words, the consistency across polls suggest that Gregoire really does hold a solid lead over Rossi—at least at this point in the election season.

Gov. Chris Gregoire has another post up on Daily Kos:  “Republicans refuse to take on climate change.”

Another Republican failure of leadership on renewable energy and climate change happened yesterday in the U.S. Senate. The “drill first and ask questions later” policy of Big Oil and Republicans has not served citizens paying at the pump and won’t in the future. We need to think bigger. What’s wrong with investing some of those wind-fall profits into renewable energy? Energy independence and a cleaner environment sound like things we should be trying to achieve.

[…]

My Republican opponent’s environmental record shows his commitment to fighting climate change is simply political lip service. John McCain came to our state touting the need to fight global warming, but George Bush Republicans like my opponent and those in the U.S. Senate killed the climate change bill and killed a bill today to make Big Oil invest in renewable energy.

While fighting climate change should be a nonpartisan issue, Republicans in Washington have shown us that if we really want to fight climate change, we need to elect Democrats in November.

We are a nation of innovators, and we are in a crisis. I am confident that with a Democratic partner in the other Washington, we can work together to develop the next generation of clean technology and put policies in place that will move us to a greener tomorrow.

Gov. Gregoire makes a blunt point that too many in our media refuse to acknowledge:  in the current political climate, if you care about climate change, if you care about the environment, then you can’t trust the Republicans to get the job done.  On this, as on many other progressive issues, and with few exceptions, the most important thing you need to know about a candidate is the little “D” or “R” next to their name on the ballot.  (You know, except here in WA where our bullshit top-two primary doesn’t even give voters that important piece of information.)

Help Gov. Gregoire get her message out to a wider audience, and recommend her post on Daily Kos.

Join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. Officially, we start at 8:00 pm at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Some folks show up early for Dinner.

Tonight’s activity…we will “veto every single beer”…

…with ill-marks, because it’s a Google.

If you find yourself in the Tri-Cities area this evening, check out McCranium for the local Drinking Liberally. Otherwise, check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.

I had a very friendly conversation with TVW President and CEO Greg Lane this afternoon, and I think we came away with a mutual understanding about our little dispute.

TVW would like its coverage to be distributed as widely as possible, but they don’t want it to appear like they are responsible for editing or excerpting their raw footage. We bloggers, on the other hand, can’t very well illustrate our commentary by inserting a link with an instruction to, say, scroll to the 52 minute mark.

To accommodate both our needs, TVW is working on a technical solution: a flash player that we can embed into our posts—like YouTube—but with a contiguous time sequence as an optional parameter. We get an easier way to select and present pertinent excerpts, and TVW assures the integrity of their coverage by serving it themselves.

I think that’s a win-win. Of course, it doesn’t prevent anybody from downloading events and editing together clip reels, but my guess is the vast majority of bloggers will simply opt for the embedded player out of convenience alone. I figure that’s what I’ll do.

As for the contested clip, Lane informs me that they did request it be pulled back on Friday, and that YouTube has confirmed receipt of their request… but so far it’s still available for your viewing pleasure.

(©2006 TVW. View full source here.)

UPDATE:
YouTube has finally pulled the clip, so I’ve uploaded it to LiveLeak:

According McCain campaign internal polling, the Iraq war remains the number one issue for northwest voters:

Davis says that campaign polling shows that nationwide, the economy is the top issue voters are concerned about, with the Iraq war No. 2, and energy and gas costs in third place. But in the northwest, the war is the top issue. That’s true in only a few regions in the country, according to the McCain campaign. Here, the economy is second and gas prices are third.

One of the taunts routinely launched at Darcy Burner and her Responsible Plan to end the war in Iraq, is that she’s still running the last campaign, foolishly focusing on a war that most voters really don’t care all that much about anymore.  But Darcy has never stopped talking with voters since narrowly losing in 2006, and she’ll be the first to tell you that this is the issue voters most often bring up when talking with her.

Huh.  Turns out, they’re telling the same thing to McCain’s pollsters.  Who’d a thunk?

From the Bellingham Herald:

Less than a week after he swore off earmarks, U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert visited the new 911 dispatch center for eastern King County, where he was publicly thanked by local officials for helping secure $1.7 million in earmarks for the center.

The Washington state Republican announced in March that he wouldn’t seek any earmarks this year, because the system was out of control and in need of serious overhaul. But he says that doesn’t mean he wasn’t going to take credit for the $27 million in earmarks he secured last year.

“You’re doggone right I was there,” said the two-term congressman, who faces what’s expected to be a tough re-election campaign. “I am not ashamed to take credit for something we worked hard on. Shoot, I’d be stupid not to.”

So let me get this right… Dave Reichert takes credit for swearing off earmarks, and securing them, at the same time… and nobody laughs in his face? No journalist asks him to explain why, if earmarks are so valuable and justifiable, he’d deny them to his district for the sake of a rhetorical gesture; or if earmarks are such a waste of taxpayer money as to warrant his pledge, why he’s not a tiny bit ashamed to take credit for them?

And Kate Riley accuses Darcy Burner of a “lack of authenticity” …? Dollars to donuts when Riley writes the second in her series of viciously dishonest Reichert endorsements, she’ll cite his bullshit earmark pledge in lauding him for his fiscal responsibility. But then, what do you expect from the amen editorialists at the Seattle Times?

You may remember Part I of the McCain: “I am an illiterate” series, where John McCain was asked what kind of computer he uses:

“Neither. I am an illiterate who has to rely on my wife for all of the assistance I can get.”

Just in case there are any lingering doubts that he is wildly out of touch with the 21st century, McCain demonstrated that he is (rather unsuccessfully) taking vocabulary lessons (my emphasis):

We’re going through a process where you get a whole bunch of names, and ya … Well, basically, it’s a Google,” McCain said. “You just, you know, what you can find out now on the Internet. It’s remarkable, you know.

Pathetic. Is this an example of McCain’s famous “straight talk”? What can we expect next from “the straight talk express”…McCain asking African Americans, “Who Let the Dogs Out,” and complementing them on their bling bling?

(H/T Political Wire.)

Porter Barry, a producer for FOX’s The O’Reilly Factor, attempts to ambush Bill Moyers at the National Conference for Media Reform, and… um… it doesn’t go so well. Watch the predator become the prey.

Wow… those Ron Paul folks sure do hate McCain…

It’s a pretty powerful, compelling and credible collection of clips.  (Except for that stuff at the end about McCain collaborating with the North Vietnamese—he was tortured after all—but if Republicans want to Swift Boat one of their own, I say more power to them.)

I usually don’t fill my tank until the dummy light comes on, but I topped off Saturday morning at $4.19 a gallon after crude rose over $10 a barrel on Friday. By Sunday, the same station was charging $4.29. That’s pretty much in line with a new AAA survey that pegs the average price of gas in WA state at $4.22 a gallon.

That’s 44 cents higher than a month ago, 95 cents higher than a year ago and 20 cents higher than the national average.

I’m guessing the only person surprised by $4-plus a gallon gas is President Bush, who back in February seemed genuinely shocked and surprised by the suggestion.

If this is the kind of energy security leadership we get from a President who fancies himself an oilman, I cringe at the thought of the kind of national security leadership we might get from a man who fancies himself a military expert.

It takes the UK’s Daily Mail to report on the presidential campaign story the US media refuses to cover:

McCain likes to illustrate his moral fibre by referring to his five years as a prisoner-of-war in Vietnam. And to demonstrate his commitment to family values, the 71-year-old former US Navy pilot pays warm tribute to his beautiful blonde wife, Cindy, with whom he has four children.

But there is another Mrs McCain who casts a ghostly shadow over the Senator’s presidential campaign. She is seldom seen and rarely written about, despite being mother to McCain’s three eldest children.

And yet, had events turned out differently, it would be she, rather than Cindy, who would be vying to be First Lady. She is McCain’s first wife, Carol, who was a famous beauty and a successful swimwear model when they married in 1965.

She was the woman McCain dreamed of during his long incarceration and torture in Vietnam’s infamous ‘Hanoi Hilton’ prison and the woman who faithfully stayed at home looking after the children and waiting anxiously for news.

But when McCain returned to America in 1973 to a fanfare of publicity and a handshake from Richard Nixon, he discovered his wife had been disfigured in a terrible car crash three years earlier … In order to save her legs, surgeons had been forced to cut away huge sections of shattered bone, taking with it her tall, willowy figure. She was confined to a wheelchair and was forced to use a catheter.

Through sheer hard work, Carol learned to walk again. But when John McCain came home from Vietnam, she had gained a lot of weight and bore little resemblance to her old self.

And so McCain did what any honorable, loving, family man would do: he immediately started cheating on his faithful wife before eventually dumping her to marry a beautiful heiress 18 years his junior.

For her part, Carol McCain sounds philosophical:

“My marriage ended because John McCain didn’t want to be 40, he wanted to be 25. You know that happens…it just does.”

But former friends and acquaintances are not so forgiving….

They portray the politician as a self-centred womaniser who effectively abandoned his crippled wife to ‘play the field’. They accuse him of finally settling on Cindy, a former rodeo beauty queen, for financial reasons.

Of course this is America, where everyone has the right to pursue happiness, and if McCain couldn’t be happy married to a woman who wasn’t tall, beautiful and wealthy, then perhaps it was best for him, Carol and their children to end the marriage. But really… enough of this family values character crap for a man who abandoned his crippled wife when she needed him most. One can assume the only reason he’s remained married to Cindy this long is that she’s managed to retain her height, looks, wealth and bladder.

In the words of Ross Perot (who paid Carol’s extensive medical bills while her husband was a prisoner of war):

“McCain is the classic opportunist. He’s always reaching for attention and glory,’ he said.

“After he came home, Carol walked with a limp. So he threw her over for a poster girl with big money from Arizona. And the rest is history.”

A history most Americans will never learn.

BlueNC (via Postman) picks Rep. Adam Smith as the winner of the longshot category in the Democratic VP sweepstakes:

An early Obama backer and effective surrogate he’s shown he can handle himself well with the media.

Really? Postman should know better than to repeat speculation like this without reporting the fatal biographical detail that absolutely removes Rep. Smith for consideration for the VP slot: he’s authored a couple posts here on HA.

And as everybody knows, foul-mouthed amen bloggers like me and Rep. Smith simply cannot be taken seriously.

Somewhat confused by this morning’s Seattle Times editorial, “Expand GI benefits,” I sat down to pick apart its arguments, only to find… there aren’t any. At least none that adequately defend a central part of their thesis.

Let the fisking begin.

A VASTLY improved and expanded package of GI educational benefits is caught in an unseemly standoff between Congress and the White House. Both manage to come off as penny-pinching ingrates.

I think it fair to conclude from the lede that the Times has two theses: 1) expanding GI educational benefits is a good thing (a sentiment with which I heartily agree); and 2) the “ingrates” in both Congress and the White House are equally to blame. Now let’s see how they go about defending their theses.

The benefits have not been updated for a generation, and the expense of the 10-year package is $52 billion — about five months of fighting the Iraq war.

Chalk that up as an adequate argument in defense of Thesis 1. I haven’t double-checked their facts, but throwing caution to the wind, we’ll just take them at their word this time.

The federal government is bleeding red ink, but a mix of Republicans and Democrats has suddenly gotten fussy about how the benefits are dealt with in the budget.

Really? Do tell.

President Bush threatens a veto because he objects to the benefit being included with his request for extra money for the war.

And the Democratic Congress?

Bush and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., claim re-enlistment rates would suffer if the maximum benefits were available after three years.

And the Democratic Congress?

The GOP presidential nominee wants those with more years of service to receive full benefits. Others counter the expanded benefits will boost enlistments.

And the Democratic Congress?

The Democratic Congress passed the new GI Bill, against the Republican objections, and now President Bush threatens to veto it. And this makes the current Congress a bunch of “penny-pinching ingrates,” how?

Congress and the White House have shameful records of providing for the welfare of the men and women in the U.S. armed forces.

True, but Congress has mostly been in the hands of Republicans for the past decade or so, so it seems kinda odd to blame Democratic members of this current Congress—you know, the Congress that just passed the expanded GI benefits the Times wants—for the admittedly “shameful record” of members who came before them, both Democrats and Republicans alike.

They were sent to war lightly equipped and have returned home wounded in body and spirit to often inadequate care.

Absolutely true, but I understand that as a defense of Thesis 1, not Thesis 2.

Our leaders ask extraordinary things of our all-volunteer military. Multiple overseas tours are routine, rotation cycles have been sped up, tours were extended to 15 months, and exhausted troops shuttle between Iraq and Afghanistan.

Again, a reasonable defense of Thesis 1.

Let the pragmatic at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue call the new GI educational benefits a cost of doing business.

Can’t argue with that. But it might useful, for the sake of argument, if the Times would bother to explain what was so unpragmatic about Congress passing the exact benefits their editorial demands?

For the rest of the nation, these overdue improvements represent both a humble thank you for sacrifices made and a measure of tribute for keeping a universal military draft at bay.

Turns out, they’re not so bad at explicating that Thesis 1 stuff after all. But I’m still waiting for a defense of Thesis 2.

Congress and the White House ask a lot of the military, but are only too willing to show their appreciation with rhetoric.

Um… and I hate to sound like a broken record here, but… Congress passed the GI Bill. How is that just rhetoric?

I think—and given the muddled nature of the editorial I’m not exactly sure—that the Times is criticizing Congress for attaching the GI Bill to a supplemental defense appropriations bill. That’s one of President Bush’s own complaints, though he objects to it because it makes the measure harder to veto. Standing on its own, the GI Bill wouldn’t have a snowball’s chance of a veto override, so it seems odd that the Times would object to such a pragmatic political maneuver at the same time it bemoans the lack of pragmatism “at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.”

I suppose the Times’ editors might have some other gripes about Congress and its Democratic leaders’ course of action on the GI Bill, but they haven’t bothered to voice them in this particular editorial. Likewise lacking is any constructive suggestion as to how Congress might overcome the White House’s objections, or move effectively forward in the face of a Presidential veto.

So why would the Times go out of its way to assign equal blame to Congress as an institution (and in such an unsupported manner), when it is clear that it is the White House and its Republican allies on Capitol Hill who threaten to block the GI Bill? Because it relieves them of the burden of calling out Rep. Dave Reichert, who voted against the GI Bill on the grounds that it levied a 0.47 percent tax surcharge on the portion of household income above $1 million a year.

Of course, my thesis is pure supposition, but as such it is at least as well supported as those of the Times.