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The Darcy Burner campaign has seemed awfully cheerful in recent days, and now we know why.  A new poll conducted on behalf of the campaign by pollster Lake Research Partners shows Darcy now leading Dave Reichert 47% to 40% in the hotly contested race for Washington’s 8th Congressional District.  And this comes on the heels of yesterday’s DCCC poll showing Darcy with a 49% to 44% lead.

I’m sure Reichert fans will self-soothe themselves with the notion that this is just an internal poll, but as I mentioned yesterday, campaigns are not in the business of deceiving themselves.  In fact, this represents a substantial turnaround from previous Burner campaign internal polls, which have never once before shown her with a lead. The partisan propaganda part of internal polling comes not from how they are conducted, but rather, from whether or not they are publicly released.  And there’s a damn good reason the Burner camp is releasing this poll, as the internals are just as promising as the top line.

Reichert’s job performance rating has “plummeted” to 34% “good or excellent” versus 54% “fair or poor.” And Reichert’s re-elect now stands at just 36%, meaning nearly two-thirds of 8th CD voters would consider voting for somebody else.

No doubt this race is far from over, and will likely come down to a point or two in either direction, but the gloom and doomers who had already written off this race based on polls conducted during the now deflated Palin bounce better start rewriting their post mortems.  Given sufficient resources and effective messaging, Darcy is in a position to win this race.  So if you haven’t already given all that you can toward turning WA-08 blue for the first time, well, ever… please give to Darcy today.

UNCONFIRMED TIDBIT:
Reliable sources tell me there is another, as yet unreleased private poll that shows Darcy with a small lead over Reichert.  I’ll publish details if I can track it down.

UPDATE:
I don’t know if this is the third “poll” I’ve been hearing about, as it’s not really one per se, but a source with the Washington State Labor Council confirms that they are doing phone ID work in preparation for their GOTV efforts, and that among union members, Burner is above 50% and Reichert is down around 38%.  Not a scientific poll, but encouraging nonetheless.

It is a fact that there are folks out there who actually believe that Barack Obama is an Arab, a Muslim, a terrorist, a communist or some combination of all four, and who believe that those of us who describe ourselves as progressive, liberal or even as nondescript Democrats, are traitors and appeasers who represent a clear and present threat to the security of the republic. Add to that the Republican Party’s far-right evangelical base, a constituency that fervently believes that all those who do not believe as they do will be condemned by God to suffer eternal torment, and you have the real potential for violence.

Given the far-right anger that McCain and Palin have been only too eager to whip up, it has become increasingly important that Obama not only win this November, but that he win by a convincing margin, carrying states in every region of the nation.  Any close Obama victory will be portrayed by the angry right as a stolen election, and any failure by Democrats to totally capitulate to the Republicans, like we did in 2000 and 2004, will be viewed as an attempted theft itself, thus confirming right-wing fears. And considering how dangerous and un-American these people think we are, we should be prepared for some on the angry right fringe to respond with actual violence.

Sure, such musings might come off as a little paranoid. But a little paranoia can be a healthy thing during times of crisis.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 370 electoral votes	Mean of 168 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 369 to 169 electoral votes, on average, in a hypothetical election held today. There were 16 new polls in 11 states released today. The polls lean Obama’s way, so that he gains a bit.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins every one. Obama receives (on average) 370 to McCain’s 168 electoral votes. Needless to say, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning an election held now.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

– Glenn Greenwald catches the Washington Post’s Steven Pearlstein unloading some grade A bullshit on Treasury Secretary Paulson’s role in the economic crisis. It’s amazing that there are still journalists who don’t comprehend out how easy it is to compare something you said a month ago to something you’re saying today and then compare both of those things to facts. Or they just don’t care.

– Latin America’s revolt against the drug war continues with Mexican President Felipe Calderon and Honduran President Manuel Zelaya talking about various forms of decriminalization and legalization and Bolivian President Evo Morales blocking U.S. anti-drug flights.

– Someone snarkily emailed me this link about how pot farms are destroying national parks, apparently as evidence that marijuana is dangerous. The danger is not from marijuana, though, which can be grown safely all over the world. The danger is from marijuana prohibition, which forces this crop (the #1 cash crop in the United States) to be grown in hidden and secret locations; and also ensures that criminals who could give a fuck about the environment will be the only people overseeing it’s production. You want to fix this problem? Legalize it. Regulate it’s production and sale. And tax it. Hell, that might even raise enough public revenue to clean up the messes being made in those parks.

– Sarah Silverman wants young Jews to go on a Great Schlep to Florida to convince their grandparents to vote for Obama. After watching this Daily Show video, all I can say is, good luck with that…

– Finally, How awesome is Dino Rossi’s old Idea Bank Committee? While Mathew Manweller (known to us at Effin Unsound as the Nutty Professor) was going off on a protestor who dared challenge his middle school-level understanding of liberty and free markets today, a post at the top of their WhackyNation blog from fellow Idea Banker Lou Guzzo was advocating that tobacco be banned nationwide. I don’t know how Dino Rossi stays so serene and smiley being surrounded by such crazy people.

Join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. Officially, we start at 8:00 pm at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Some of us show up early for Dinner.

Tonight’s special guest will be Seattle Mayor Greg Nickles who will discuss, among other things, Sound Transit’s Prop. 1.

If you find yourself in the Tri-Cities area this evening, check out McCranium for the local Drinking Liberally. Otherwise, check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.

As I reported earlier today, the BIAW has dropped another $4 million into the governor’s race, bringing their total for the cycle to over $7.2 million.  Well now  it appears that the Republican Governor’s Association has dumped another $3.5 million into their anti-Gregoire smear campaign, bringing their total to more than $5.5 million.

That’s $12.7 million in so-called “independent” expenditures on behalf of Dino Rossi, more than half of it coming just weeks before the election, a game-changing number that simply shatters previous state spending records.

How much of a game changer is this?  Well, to put it in perspective, $12.7 million is pretty much what Dino Rossi and Chris Gregoire spent combined in all of 2004.

This is not politics as usual; this is shock and awe.  The question is, will our media do their job and warn the public about this dangerous effort to buy our votes, or will they just shrug it off with the kind of “both sides do it” equivalency we’ve come to expect?

Oh. My. God.  That’s not just anybody spraying angry spittle at the masses, that’s Kittitas County Republican chair Matt Manweller, a top economic adviser to Dino Rossi, aggressively confronting a lone Democrat before a Rossi rally in Ellensburg.

The young man is holding a sign criticizing Rossi’s proposal to slash our state’s minimum wage by $1.50, and Manweller just goes ballistic, repeatedly calling him “stupid,” and angrily disparaging him and the rest of our state’s minimum wage workers:

“You and those 300,000 people are dumber than a post”

Yup, that is the elitist economic world view of the co-creator of Rossi’s “IdeaBank”:  if you work for the minimum wage you must be “dumber than a post,” so really, your problems are just your own damn fault.

I’m guessing Lee and Carl, who are well familiar with Manweller’s ravings over at Whacky Nation, might have more to say about the “Nutty Professor,” but understand that he is not an anomaly.  Dino Rossi is running a mean-spirited campaign, as he would run a mean-spirited administration, and his allegiances are clearly to the people with money, not to the people.

Late yesterday, the Building Industry Association of Washington dumped another $4 million into the governor’s race, bringing their spending on behalf of Dino Rossi to an astounding $7 million.  That’s $7 million from BIAW alone, apparently the largest such “independent” expenditure in state history.

This is a stunning, disturbing and potentially game changing development that will allow the BIAW to saturate the airwaves with vicious attack ads, quite possibly swinging this election to Rossi.  And without that type of layout, the BIAW has clearly made the decision that a Governor Rossi would be well worth the price of any fines it will pay for its illegal activities.

Will our state’s editorialists express the appropriate outrage out this effort to deceitfully buy the governor’s mansion?  Sadly, I’m guessing not.

What Ezra Klein says:

The liberal understanding of the economy and its problems has been, in recent months and years, superior to the conservative understanding of the country and its problems. And this has only sharpened in recent weeks, as the Republican Party has spun off into the Gamma Quadrant with laughable theories about ACORN and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977. Their argument isn’t wrong in the sense that it’s a serious engagement with the situation that happens to be less empirically sound than competing theories. It’s just nonsense. And this isn’t a time when we can afford governance powered by nonsense. We need governance by people who understood the magnitude and nature of the problem, and have some idea how to go forward fixing it.

And as Robert Reich put things last week:

For years, regardless of the business cycle, American consumers were the Energizer Bunnies of the world economy. Their spending kept it going. But now the Energizer Bunnies have turned into scared rabbits, and they’re going back into their holes.

Yes, we need better regulation of Wall Street in order to avoid the sort of bubbles and distrust that have generated a credit crisis. But even more than that, we need to get money back into the pockets of average American consumers — including major investments in infrastructure, affordable health care, and a more progressive tax code.

Easier said than done, of course, but when you hear Republicans blither on about balanced budgets and lowering capital gains taxes it’s kind of hard not to simply burst out laughing. Yeah, let’s suck a few trillion more out of the economy and see what happens.

As it turns out, the “Old Europe” types the Bushies were so happy to excoriate a few years ago seem to be the only ones with half a clue about how to start fixing the economic mess. Talk about irony.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released new polls in several districts this morning, including WA-08, where their survey of 400 voters shows Darcy Burner leading Dave Reichert by a 49% to 44% margin.

“Darcy Burner’s campaign for change is resonating with families who have had enough of Congressman Dave Reichert’s support for George Bush’s failed economic policies,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Yoni Cohen. “Reichert was a good sheriff but is ineffective in Congress, rubber stamping Bush’s war in Iraq and Bush’s effort to privatize Social Security and risk seniors’ retirement benefits in the stock market. Burner is running to change Washington and provide tax relief to Washington State’s middle class families.”

Well, I don’t know how good a sheriff Reichert really was (he did not, as legend tells it, catch the Green River Killer), but he certainly has been an ineffective congressman, and his continued support for privatizing Social Security, even in the wake of the current financil crisis, should disqualify him from office on its own.  (Of course Reichert claims that he doesn’t support “privatization,” he merely supports individual accounts that can be invested in the market.  But then, perhaps he really is dumb enough to believe the party line that those two schemes aren’t essentially the same thing?)

Yes, this is a DCCC poll, and they tend to only release the good ones, but they’re not in the business of deceiving themselves, so partisans on either side should not make the mistake of dismissing it out of hand.  And while it is the first poll I’ve seen to show Darcy with an “initial head-to-head lead,” I’ve seen the internals on previous polls that showed Darcy leading after issues were pushed to respondents… something Darcy has been doing in recent weeks with her advertising.

Either way, confirmation (or not) is coming.  I know of at least two more polls currently in the field, and both Survey USA and Research 2000 should have new polls dropping within the next week and a half.  I’m crossing my fingers.

Paul Krugman wins the Nobel Prize, the U.S. and Europe partially nationalize their banking systems… and the markets soar.  Can anybody seriously argue that the era of free market radicalism isn’t over?

Le Roi est mort. Vive le Roi!

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 369 electoral votes	Mean of 169 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 364 to 174. With thirteen new polls in eleven states being released today, Obama gains enough electoral votes for a 100 vote victory margin. After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times, and he receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes. If an election had been held today, Obama would have won with nearly 100% certainty.

Today’s big surprise poll was in North Dakota: a +2% lead for Obama in a Forum Poll from Minnesota State University Moorhead. You would be excused for viewing the poll with skepticism—the previous two polls are from mid-September and give McCain +13% and +9% leads. Even so, the result must be inducing ulcers and gnashing of teeth in the McCain Camp. I can almost hear Sarah Palin crying, “Say it ain’t so, Fargo!”

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.