|100.0% probability of winning||0.0% probability of winning|
|Mean of 369 electoral votes||Mean of 169 electoral votes|
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 364 to 174. With thirteen new polls in eleven states being released today, Obama gains enough electoral votes for a 100 vote victory margin. After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times, and he receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes. If an election had been held today, Obama would have won with nearly 100% certainty.
Today’s big surprise poll was in North Dakota: a +2% lead for Obama in a Forum Poll from Minnesota State University Moorhead. You would be excused for viewing the poll with skepticism—the previous two polls are from mid-September and give McCain +13% and +9% leads. Even so, the result must be inducing ulcers and gnashing of teeth in the McCain Camp. I can almost hear Sarah Palin crying, “Say it ain’t so, Fargo!”
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.