HorsesAss.Org

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 369 electoral votes	Mean of 169 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 364 to 174. With thirteen new polls in eleven states being released today, Obama gains enough electoral votes for a 100 vote victory margin. After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times, and he receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes. If an election had been held today, Obama would have won with nearly 100% certainty.

Today’s big surprise poll was in North Dakota: a +2% lead for Obama in a Forum Poll from Minnesota State University Moorhead. You would be excused for viewing the poll with skepticism—the previous two polls are from mid-September and give McCain +13% and +9% leads. Even so, the result must be inducing ulcers and gnashing of teeth in the McCain Camp. I can almost hear Sarah Palin crying, “Say it ain’t so, Fargo!”

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

One of the excuses the Dino Rossi campaign has used to explain why he can’t show up when he’s subpoenaed claims it’s because “it’s on the day of the last debate.” In fact, there is now late word that the plaintiff’s attorney in “Buildergate” will ask for a different date for Rossi to appear in order to avoid such a conflict.

Rossi loves him some debates, you betcha, unless it’s in Clark County and it would cost him a half hour’s worth of high-donor contact.

Rossi ducked a debate today in Vancouver, preferring instead to pose for photos with contributors at $500 per person. At least that was the plan when I first posted about it on Sept. 27.

And get this. Rossi wouldn’t even let the local newspaper report from his event today.

Gov. Chris Gregoire used an hour-long town hall meeting in Vancouver Monday to tout her record, answer questions from a friendly audience of about 250 and campaign for re-election.

Her GOP opponent Dino Rossi, meanwhile, was at the Red Lion Inn at the Quay for a private fundraiser. His campaign declined a request from The Columbian to attend.

But then that’s the way Republicans such as Rossi like to operate, isn’t it? Sure, you have a Constitutional right to keep people out of a private event, but last time I checked political campaigns usually crave media attention.

But if the Rossi campaign lets him be exposed to the public down here in a debate or even by being quoted, they risk losing in Clark County as voters realize he’s nothing but a big bundle of anti-tax platitudes and accusatory BIAW-inspired rhetoric.

My crystal ball has lost thirty percent of its value recently, but I’m guessing a lot of voters here are pretty much like a lot of voters everywhere—they’re not buying what the Republicans are selling. Best for the GOP Party to keep things quiet and keep Rossi out of the public eye, in case anyone notices the platitudes have a familiar, Bush-ish quality about them.

It’s pretty remarkable that in a county Rossi needs to take to have any chance of winning, the only people he seems to have talked to today were those willing to pay him for the right.

I hope they had cake at least.

I was chatting with a long-time local politico over the weekend, bitching about the P-I endorsement of Reichert, and the old-timer sarcastically responded “Big deal.”  Both the Times and P-I endorsements were “soft,” and besides, newspapers “almost always endorse the incumbent.”

Huh.  It wasn’t the first time I’d heard that little gem of conventional wisdom, and anecdotally it appeared to be true, but I thought I’d start compiling a spreadsheet of newspaper endorsements this season to see how strongly that trend holds up.  So far I’ve compiled results from the Times, the P-I and the Olympian, for all non-open, statewide, congressional, and legislative endorsements… and so far the incumbents are leading by a margin of 41 to 1, the lone exception being the P-I’s endorsement of Democratic challenger Peter Goldmark in the race for Commissioner of Public Lands.

I plan on adding at least the Everett Herald, the Tacoma News Tribune, the Columbian, and the Spokane Spokesman-Review to my spreadsheet, and no doubt the percentages will narrow some when the Times and other conservative ed boards inevitably endorse Dino Rossi, but I’d say the results thus far are statistically significant.

And there are folks in our local media who accuse me of lacking sufficient independence.

It’s bullshit of course, but the Seattle Times has an online poll in WA-08, and from the current lopsided results it is clear that the other side is freeping it, so why not have a crack at that ourselves?  Surely there are enough readers here at HA to push the numbers the other way?

In a Palinesque maneuver, Dino Rossi is seeking to block subpoenas in the unfolding Buildergate scandal:

Lawyers for Republican candidate for governor Dino Rossi plan to file papers Monday for a court case in Seattle.

They are trying to prevent him from having to testify in a lawsuit challenging campaign spending by the Building Industry Association of Washington.

Rossi’s campaign says the lawsuit is politically motivated.

Politically motivated?  Well, yeah, maybe.  But what does that matter?  Either there is enough evidence to proceed or there isn’t?  The question is, if Rossi really is innocent of illegal campaign coordination he should have nothing to hide.  So why avoid the deposition?

Incumbent Lt. Governor Brad Owen and State Auditor Brian Sonntag.  I won’t necessarily be voting for their Republican opponents, but I will definitely not cast my ballot for these two “Democrats” this November.

I’ve never been much impressed by Owen, but Sonntag, well, I’ve grown pretty damn disillusioned with his confrontational, punitive, and thus counterproductive use of performance audits these past couple years. Rather than promoting efficiencies in government, Sonntag’s performance audits have only served to enable and embolden anti-transit, anti-tax, anti-government activists.  If he audited himself to see what kind of return taxpayers have gotten for their performance audit dollars, his office wouldn’t look so good.

Behold the most horrifying yet hilarious political advertisement ever produced.  (You think I exaggerate? Watch it. I dare you.) “Gushing record profits?” Bwhaaaaaaa.)

The ad is on behalf of ex-Congressman Jim Slattery of Kansas, who is challenging Republican incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts.

I have to confess, I don’t recall Slattery being the sort who would make an ad about this sort of thing. I mean, gasoline doesn’t exactly make it any less horrifying. Hope no Kansans were smoking cigarettes or anything.

(Props to, where else, Wonkette.)

Yeah Sarah, as president, John McCain would indeed “end… the abuse of power.”  In Alaska.

Princeton professor and New York Times opinion columnist Paul Krugman—the economist conservatives love to hate—has won the Nobel Prize in Economics.

And it couldn’t happen at a better time.  With the economic dogma of the Republican Party in the toilet (along with the bubble economy it helped create), is there anybody on the right who has the intellectual cred to go up against Krugman?  I don’t think so.

It’s tomorrow in Europe!

The Chancellor will move to take control of the Royal Bank of Scotland today by injecting £20 billion of taxpayers’ money.

The Government is also expected to take over HBOS in the most dramatic extension of state ownership in the British economy since the war. The bank’s rescue takeover by Lloyds TSB appeared to be on the brink of collapse last night.

As governments around the world scramble to prevent the collapse of the global financial system, Alistair Darling will unveil plans for a £40 billion “recapitalisation” of the banking sector.

I’m going to need a chardonnay sugar scrub. You’re taking a bath but the AIG folks already took theirs– in white wine.

(Props to Eschaton for the first link.)

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 364 electoral votes	Mean of 174 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 363 to 175 electoral votes. There were new polls in California, Colorado, and Delaware released today, and as a consequence, Obama earns another electoral vote.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins them all. Obama receives (on average) 364 to McCain’s 174 electoral votes. Obama would almost certainly win the election if it was held today.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Speaking of editorial endorsements, the Olympian today describes the governor’s race as a contest between “An efficient policy wonk running against a slick carnival hawker.”  So guess which candidate they endorse?

If you’ve noticed an absence of substantive posting from me over the past couple days, it’s not from a lack of writing.  In fact, I’ve written a couple of rants, several thousand words total, responding to the editorial endorsements of Dave Reichert by the both the Seattle Times, and even more disappointingly, the Seattle P-I.

It was cathartic.  It felt good.  But, well, sometimes one can be too honest, and at this point, really, what’s the point?  So I’ll just keep my least constructive comments to myself.

But I’m sitting here watching the debate between Darcy Burner and Reichert on KCTS-9, a debate in which Darcy is clearly kicking the incumbent’s ass, and so I just can’t let this all pass by without at least one blunt critique, and that is that both paper’s editorial boards appear to have knowingly endorsed the least intelligent, least knowledgeable, and least capable candidate.  As my 11-year-old daughter just aptly observed, Reichert “sounds like a little kid giving a report that he didn’t practice on, and knows nothing about.”

Or perhaps I give the editorial boards too much credit?

You see, I have always started from the basic assumption that the vast majority of voters would prefer elected leaders who are at least as smart and capable as they are.  These are our leaders after all, and we entrust in them huge responsibilities.  I accept that there are multiple intelligences, and that being book-smart is not a qualification on its own, but generally, it seems like a good idea to populate Congress with our best and our brightest.

And the fact is, Dave Reichert is, well, average.  There’s no getting around that.  He’s not well educated, he’s not well informed, and he has few if any accomplishments to show for his four years in the House.  Indeed, neither the Times nor the P-I argue that Reichert is exceptional in any way, instead, they argue, he is, well, good enough.

So if Reichert is good enough for our two dailies, what does that say about the editorial writers themselves?

Unlike me, do these editorialists simply not mind being represented by somebody who is less capable than they are?  Or does my assumption hold true, and are these editorialists simply as mediocre as Reichert?  Do they accept Reichert as good enough because they really do find him to be an intellectual equal?

I know I may come off as sounding a little elitist, but Congress is a very elite organization, and it just seems that our region would be best served by selecting the very best representatives we can find.  And Reichert simply is not that.

He is, however, the incumbent, and what we have seen from both papers is little more than a defense of incumbency, a circular logic that argues that Reichert’s experience in Congress, however unremarkable, is the singular qualification that makes him a better choice than Darcy.  And if that is the curious logic by which our region’s opinion leaders determine their endorsements, then my original assumption is left unchallenged.

Last week, the Houston Texans had an epic meltdown with Quarterback Sage Rosenfels fumbling twice at the end of the 4th Quarter to allow the Colts to come back from 17 points down and win 31-27. The Texans are now 0-4. After watching the end of the game, I checked out Battle Red Blog, a Texans blog, to see if anyone was calling for coach Gary Kubiak’s job yet. I stumbled across the Open Game Day Thread, which gave a pretty good summary of the Texans fans’ emotional ride last Sunday afternoon:

Eerie Foreshadowing – 1:07PM CDT

I’ve got a feeling that…

Once again, this game is going to come down to our butter-soft end of game defense. The Colts look very beatable of course, but how will our guys respond late in the 4th?

Swagger – 2:17PM CDT

Agressive – even with a ten point lead in the fourth. LOVE it.

Counting Chickens Before They’ve Hatched – 2:27PM CDT

Hey motherfuckers

We’re going to win this game.

Hubris – 2:41PM CDT

We are gonna have to get a first down!!!! Stop playing like we are running the clock out with 20 secs left

Within a minute of that last comment being posted, Rosenfels kept the ball and tried to run for a first down. But instead of sliding, tried to leap over several defenders. Predictably, he fumbled, the Colts recovered and ran it back for a touchdown to close the lead to 3. Dumbest play I’ve seen all year (other than DeSean Jackson dropping the ball right before he scored a touchdown for the Eagles).

The thread continued:

Bewilderment – 2:41PM CDT

What the flying fuck was that shit?

The Colts then kicked off to the Texans again, where they ran the ball for one yard on first down, taking 40 seconds off the clock.

Not Learning From Earlier Mistakes – 2:45PM CDT

they have got to fucking get a first down. 2 yards a clip won’t cut it

With 2nd and 9 from Houston’s 21, the Texans call two pass plays in a row. Why!?! Run out the fucking clock, dummies. Karma delivered on 3rd and 9 as the Colts stripped the ball from Rosenfels again, giving them the ball at the Houston 20 with 2:36 still left. Manning eventually threw the game-winning touchdown to Reggie Wayne.

Rage – 2:46PM CDT

FIRE THEM ALL

Insanity – 2:50PM CDT

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Defeat – 2:54PM CDT

Gutted.

I think sports may finally have broken me entirely.

Dude, I’ve been there.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 363 electoral votes	Mean of 175 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 363 to 175 electoral votes. There were six new polls released today—including four important swing states—but almost nothing has changed. For the third day straight, the electoral vote tally is unchanged. Pretty unusual.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins every one, suggesting that, in an election held now, Obama would have a 100.0% probability of winning. Once again, Obama gets (on average) 363 to McCain’s 175 electoral votes.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.