HorsesAss.Org

Dino Rossi is trumpeting the $600,000 he’s raised in his first official week of campaigning:

“In just the first week, we have signed up over 2,500 people online, attracted over 20,000 Facebook followers, third most of any US Senate candidate and nearly twice that of Senator Murray, and raised over $600,000, including nearly $200,000 online,” Rossi said in a statement.

Yeah, okay, good numbers by any standard, but after months of lining everything up, nothing particularly exciting. One would expect an initial surge in donations, but even if he were to maintain this pace and raise $600,000 a week between now and the election, that still only comes to $13.2 million. And I’m hearing Sen. Murray had a bit of a fundraising windfall from Rossi’s announcement too.

I mean, it’s not like anybody ever questioned Rossi’s ability to raise money. Indeed, that and name ID pretty much appear to be his primary qualifications. But I sure don’t view this as any indication of a groundswell in grassroots support.

A lot of pundits were all but writing obituaries for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid as polls in his home state of Nevada consistently showed him trailing badly behind nearly any Republican opponent, but things started to turn around a couple months ago, with the embattled Senator slowly clawing his way back into a dead heat.

What changed? Well of course, Republican frontrunner Sue “Chickengate” Lowden very publicly self-destructed in a series of ethical and intellectual fiascos. But one’s opponent’s mistakes aren’t on their own enough to assure an advantage.

No, one has to be in a position to aggressively capitalize on such mistakes… frame them effectively, disseminate the message broadly and draw a contrast that resonates with voters. And it is at least interesting to note that Sen. Reid’s rebound in the polls coincides almost exactly with his campaign bringing on the pugnacious Kelly Steele as communications director.

I got to know Steele in 2006 when he led the charge against Mike McGavick on behalf of the Washington State Democratic Party’s coordinated campaign, and later when he served as spokesman for the state Dems during Gov. Chris Gregoire’s bitter rematch with real estate speculator Dino Rossi. I know some journalists and editorialists scoffed at his relentless attacks and sometimes borderline over-the-top rhetoric, but it’s hard to argue with the results. Electoral politics is a brutal, adversarial process, and Steele approaches his task brutally.

And often, with a pretty damn fine sense of humor.

I don’t know how much of the message in Nevada’s Senate race these past few months is due to Steele, but it sure is suggestive of his handiwork, and if Reid completes his political resurrection, it wouldn’t be unfair to canonize Steele in the process. Back here in the Pacific Northwest (Steele had already made a name for himself in OR before coming to WA), a lot of folks already considered Steele a rising star, but if Sen. Reid wins reelection I’d expect his career to go supernova.

I just hope he remembers us little people.

UPDATE:
I forwarded the post to Steele, and… well… he wasn’t pleased. “We have a huge and talented team of professionals,” he replied, “and it’s unfair to call out any one member.”

And I don’t think Steele was just being modest. He actually asked me to pull the post, which as a matter of principle, I just can’t do… and which in itself I guess, somewhat refutes my portrayal of him as a master of the message. (I mean, if he can’t even get a lowly local blogger to pull a post, how good can he be?)

Last night in Detroit, a blown call from a first-base umpire robbed Tigers’ pitcher Armando Galarraga of a perfect game on what should have been the very last out. I first saw what happened right after the Flyers won Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals last night. The Flyers were able to take that game into overtime and win partially because an official replay showed that their second goal just barely crossed the line (after it was initially not counted as a goal). Currently, baseball only has replay for disputes over whether a home run is really a home run. Is it time for baseball to implement instant replay for out/safe calls on the basepaths?

UPDATE (Goldy):
It should be noted that the Flyers needed to score twice in overtime to win the game, the first goal being disallowed when the referee blew a clearly early whistle, just before the Flyers swatted a loose puck into the net. So replay is no panacea.

The Stranger rifles through Dino Rossi’s baggage.

Here’s a bit of month old news I don’t remember getting much local press:

The Seattle, WA metropolitan area has the strongest local economy in the nation according to POLICOM Corporation’s annual economic strength rankings. Edwards, CO is top among the “Micropolitan” areas, which are smaller urban centers.

“The top rated areas have had rapid, consistent growth in both size and quality for an extended period of time,” stated William H. Fruth, President of POLICOM. POLICOM, located in Palm City, FL, specializes in analyzing local and state economies.

“The rankings do not reflect the latest ‘hotspot’ or boom town, but the areas which have the best economic foundation,” Fruth continued. “While most communities have slowed or declined during this recession, the strongest areas have been able to weather the storm.”

We hear an awful lot from our local media and Republican critics about how fucked up we are around here… about how our taxes are too high and our government budgets too big and our regulations too oppressive and all that. And yet, year after year, in reports and studies and surveys, Washington state in general, and the Puget Sound region in particular consistently ranks near the top in economic strength, quality of life, business climate, government efficiency and everything else that leads to prosperity.

It’s not like we don’t have problems to solve, but honestly, what a bunch of whiners we can be.

The odds of being a victim of a violent crime in the U.S.? About 0.45 percent. The odds of this particular gun owner shooting himself in the testicles… apparently, 100 percent:

A man was shot in the testicles Sunday afternoon after a gun in his waistband accidentally discharged, police said.

The man was shopping at the Lowe’s hardware store in Lynnwood around 12:30 p.m. when the gun went off, said Shannon Sessions with Lynnwood Police. […] Sessions said it was legal for the man to be carrying the gun and it’s unlikely he’ll face any charges.

I think a lot of guys like carrying a gun because it makes them feel more manly. You know, except this guy.

When Washington voters go to the polls in November, they’ll have a pretty clear choice in the U.S. Senate race, regardless of who captures the second slot in our top-two primary. On the one hand we’ll have a Republican like Dino Rossi, who is campaigning against earmarks, against regulation and for lower taxes. On the other hand we’ll have Sen. Patty Murray, who, you know, actually wants to do stuff for our state.

On Tuesday, Sen. Patty Murray joined a short roundtable session with Eastside leaders, transportation officials and developers to discuss future plans for the Bel-Red Corridor, and what the federal government might do to speed things along.

[…] Murray has been talking up the Bel-Red Corridor back in D.C., and on Tuesday she seemed pleased to hear that developers, city planners and transportation agencies are collaborating on the project. The city is hoping for federal money from a sustainability grant to help pay for planning, and also has been trying to get federal money to build or extend some of the roadways that will be needed to connect the Bel-Red Corridor to the rest of the city. That includes an extension of 120th Street, and an extension of Northeast 4th Street to connect to 120th Street, said Bellevue Councilman Grant Degginger. The city will also have to build a new arterial, Northeast 15th/16th Street, to run east and west through the Bel-Red Corridor.

Not only would Rossi lack the seniority, status and influence to help our region compete for federal money, he’s pretty much promising not even to try. On a matter of principle or something. Because, you know, it’s better to see our tax dollars go to Texas or Alabama, than dirty ourselves with something called an “earmark.”

Somehow, I think Washington voters will prove more pragmatic than that.

It’s a primary election night tonight! Okay, so it is in Alabama, Mississippi and New Mexico. Even so…you now have a good excuse to join us tonight for an evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. beginning at about 8:00 pm. Stop by even earlier and enjoy some dinner.

Not in Seattle? There is a good chance you live near one of the 325 other chapters of Drinking Liberally.

Jim Kenny, one of the two Democrats running to be the Snohomish County Prosecutor, has endorsed I-1068 to make marijuana legal in Washington. In his press release, he touches on the key reason why our budget-conscious politicians should be joining him:

There are also many cost savings which can be realized if the voters pass I-1068, especially at the cash-strapped county level of government. Kenny points to the 16,000 marijuana criminal cases per year that would be removed from our state and local court systems, saving tens of millions of dollars in police, prosecutorial, and judicial resources. “I can point to two medical marijuana cases in the last year on which the Snohomish County Prosecutor spent valuable taxpayer resources, neither of which led to conviction. If juries are throwing out cases like that, clearly we need to move on.”

“We are looking at a crisis in public safety with declining revenue for local government. I think it’s time to prioritize and really focus our criminal justice resources on violent criminals,” said Kenny. “Given the state of our economy and the projected financial situation facing government at every level, we need to get down to the fundamentals and prioritize.”

There was a time when politicians (let alone prosecutors) didn’t dare talk about reducing law enforcement budgets or cutting back on waging the drug war. But two things have changed since then – a bad economy forcing even police budgets to be slashed, and a growing awareness that marijuana prohibition causes far more crime in our communities than would occur if we treated it the same as alcohol. Being smarter about how we reduce crime in our neighborhoods – rather than doing things that appear tough – is one of the most effective ways that we can introduce more fiscal sanity to our bloated budgets.

This morning the Washington Poll released an expanded sample of their recent poll of Washington state voters. Their press release explains:

Last week (May 24) we released the results of an n=1252 survey, yet we continued to conduct additional surveys through Friday May 28th, and amassed a total of 1,695 interviews.

While there are some interesting results in this new release, particularly regarding the Teabagger element of the GOP Party, I’ll simply focus on the match-up between Senator Patty Murray (D) and perennial candidate Dino Rossi (R). I recently analyzed this poll with the original sample of 1,252 registered voters that went for Murray over Rossi 44% to 40%. The results suggested that Patty Murray was leading with an 86.5% probability.

The new results still have 44% Murray and 40% Rossi but now, with the larger sample, the uncertainty in the result goes down. In a Monte Carlo analysis Murray won 897,105 of 1,000,000 elections, suggesting that an election held now would be won by Murray with an 89.7% probability. Here is the distribution of outcomes:

A few days ago I did an analysis of the three polls in this race that were taken in May. The analysis gave Murray an 84.8% probability of truly leading the race. Doing that same analysis with the expanded Washington Poll ups Murray’s probability to 88.7%.

So, based on the available evidence, Dino Rossi is still losing to Patty Murray, but we can say this with a little more certainty.

(Cross posted at Hominid Views.)

According to sources close to the campaign, Democratic state Sen. Craig Pridemore will announce today that he is withdrawing from the race to replace Rep. Brain Baird in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, leaving fellow Democrat Denny Heck with a sure path to the November ballot.

With a slew of establishment endorsements and a $250,000 infusion of his own money, Heck became the early Democratic favorite, an advantage Pridemore, a strong, populist-minded campaigner, simply wasn’t able to overcome, especially as he continued to be locked up in an endless, special legislative session. Pridemore had intended to run an energetic, grassroots primary campaign, a strategy that depended on strong support from labor organizations like the Washington State Labor Council and the Washington Education Association. And while he recently secured the endorsement of the former, word leaked over the weekend that the WEA would be endorsing Heck, largely based on his fundraising lead and frontrunner status. (I don’t think teachers have a bigger champion in the Senate than Pridemore.)

Pridemore’s withdrawal is of course a blow to progressives like me who saw him as the better choice of the two Dems. Whether it’s a blow to Republicans, who wouldn’t have minded a Democratic cat fight in the primary, remains to be seen. In this anti-incumbency year, my gut told me that the more populist Pridemore had the better shot in November than the more establishment Heck.

But here’s hoping the Democratic establishment proves me wrong.

UPDATE:
It’s official, and Publicola has Pridemore’s statement.

The Washington Poll released additional results today based on an expanded number respondents on top of last week’s survey, and Sen. Patty Murray still leads real estate speculator Dino Rossi 44-40, only this time with only a 2.3% margin of error. Perhaps Darryl will update his Monte Carlo analysis to put that in perspective.

Today’s results also include a number of questions intending to gauge the attitudes and breadth of the teabagger movement, and after a quick glance at the results, honestly, I don’t see what Republicans have to gain in the general from playing to this crowd. As one might expect, Republicans and Democrats approve and disapprove of the teabaggers in similar numbers, with independents slight leaning in approval, just like the way they tend to slightly lean Republican.

Looks to me like Tea Party is simply another name for “conservative Republican,” at least here in Washington State. A stinking pile of poo by any other name, and all that.

Google has long offered employees their choice of operating systems, but according to a report in yesterday’s Financial Times, the search giant is ending its OS agnosticism in response to January’s high-profile security breach. New hires are now being offered a choice of Macintosh or Linux PCs; Microsoft Windows is no longer an option.

“We’re not doing any more Windows. It is a security effort,” said one Google employee.

“Many people have been moved away from [Windows] PCs, mostly towards Mac OS, following the China hacking attacks,” said another.

Ouch.

Of course, sources claim the prohibition on new Windows installs is due to security concerns, but I say it’s just payback for a series of really stupid Seattle Times editorials. Way to go, Frank.

The Israeli Army has killed at least nine people and arrested dozens more after attacking a flotilla trying to bring aid to Gaza. Andrew Sullivan discusses it here. Juan Cole has some additional information, including an email from someone on one of the ships. Glenn Greenwald calls out the glaring contradictions between how we treat Israel and how we treat other countries and groups who do similarly appalling things. Paul Reynolds at BBC News reports on the fallout, including the cancellation of an expected meeting between Netanyahu and Obama originally scheduled for tomorrow.

UPDATE: ThinkProgress has some more links here which do a good job debunking some myths about the effects of the Gaza blockade. What I find most horrific about this action – and the Israeli policy on Gaza – is that it’s a rationalization of the necessity of punishing civilians in order to achieve political outcomes. Normally, we refer to people who think like that as terrorists.

UPDATE 2: TPM has a running timeline of reports.

UPDATE 3: George Friedman at Stratfor has a very sharp piece explaining how Israel is losing the edge in public perception and continues to risk further isolation.

I spent about three hours this afternoon at Folklife collecting signatures for I-1068. As expected, it was a friendly crowd and my biggest obstacle to getting signers was that many people had already signed. Still, there were too many young people who wanted to sign, but haven’t registered to vote yet.

Also in Seattle Center today were a number of paid gatherers for I-1098 (the Income Tax initiative), I-1100 (privatization of liquor sales), and some revival of the 2/3 vote for tax increases (don’t remember the number, don’t give a fuck).

One of the paid gatherers was clearly out of her element and I chatted with her for a bit. She said she’d been paid $100 to collect signatures, but knew nothing about the state (she was from California) or the history of our recent initiatives. She was confused as to why a lot of people were refusing to sign the 2/3 vote petition and I had to explain the history. She was far too shy to be doing that kind of work and eventually just started approaching the people who had already stopped to sign my I-1068 petitions.

On top of that, one lady who signed my petition said that one of the paid gatherers told her that the 2/3 majority vote petition was not a Tim Eyman initiative (it is). It sounds like the folks from California have learned what they need to say to get people to sign.

And the highlight of my day was when I asked a short black man with dreadlocks to sign – and he politely said “thanks, I’ve signed” and showed me the baseball-sized bud he was carrying in his hand.