HorsesAss.Org

Three days ago Joel Connelly reported it as imminent. Now King County Councilmember Bob Ferguson has announced his candidacy for Washington State Attorney General:

Bob may have some Democratic competition from former Pierce County Executive John Ladenburg. On the Republican side, it’s hard to tell. But…

[t]he King County GOP last week registered the Internet domain name “DunnForAG.com.”

That would be Reagan Dunn, son of the late Rep. Jennifer Dunn, who represented Washington’s 8th CD from 1993 to 2005. Reagan Dunn, like Bob Ferguson, currently serves on the King County Council.

No word from Richard Pope yet on whether or not he will also run….

Last week’s contest was won by Milwhcky. The correct answer was Memphis.

This week’s is related to a TV show or a movie, good luck!

1 Peter 2:13-14
Submit yourselves for the Lord’s sake to every human authority: whether to the emperor, as the supreme authority, or to governors, who are sent by him to punish those who do wrong and to commend those who do right.

Discuss.

The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) wrapped up Saturday on its third and final day. One function of the annual conference is to allow potential Republican presidential candidates to telegraph their intentions to run, while strutting their conservative stuff to the hungry conservative masses.

And there was a lot of telegraphy (and strutting) this year. We got coded messages from Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-IN), Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS), Newt Gingrich, John Thune, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), and The Donald Trump. There were probably others there that I’ve forgotten about.

Two CPAC no-shows, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee, are both expected to join competition as well. I mean, it isn’t a coincidence that Sarah Palin hired a chief of staff just today—the same person who worked for her 2008 VP campaign. She was telegraphing from a distance….

The G.O.P. 2012 primary field is still a little fuzzy as very few of these folks have actually admitted they are running.

The Democratic race is pretty clear. President Obama will run for reelection. There will be a couple of Democratic also-rans and crank candidates, but unless an authentic Kenyan long-form birth certificate is found, or someone uncovers a third grade report by Obama where he swears his allegiance to Chairman Mao, Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee.

Today a new FOX News poll does head-to-head match-ups between Obama and the top Republican (probable) candidates.

I know some readers will be dubious about a Fox News Poll. However, this one is done jointly by Anderson Robbins Research, a Democratic pollster, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican pollster. The poll uses live interviews on a national sample of 911 registered voters from Feb 7-9. Both landlines and cell phones were included. The margin of error is 3%.

Here is a summary of answers to the question “thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…”

• Obama (48%), Romney (41%)
• Obama (49%), Huckabee (41%)
• Obama (56%), Palin (35%)
• Obama (55%), Gingrich (35%)
• Obama (54%), Jeb Bush (34%)

The findings for Palin, Gingrich and Jeb Bush are not overly surprising. However, Obama’s substantial lead over the two individuals who are widely considered the front runners is great news for Obama.

There was a poll released yesterday by Public Policy Polling that did head-to-head match-ups in nine swing states (defined as states that Barack Obama won in 2008 and that George Bush won in 2004. Indiana was excluded because of legal difficulties polling in the state. Nebraska CD 2 is also included because Obama won an electoral vote from there). The take-home message:

If he stood for reelection today against one of the current Republican front runners Obama would almost certainly win the same number of electoral votes he did in 2008, if not more.

Here are the numbers:

Obama v.	2008 Vote	Gingrich	Huckabee	Palin	Romney
Colorado	+9	+14	+9	+19	+6
Florida	+3	+5	+5	+14	+2
Iowa	+10	+13	+4	+16	+6
NE-2	+1	+19	+11	+24	+9
Nevada	+12	+11	+10	+13	+1
New Mexico	+15	+21	+19	+29	+16
North Carolina	+0	+6	+4	+9	+3
Ohio	+4	+6	+1	+7	+2
Virginia	+6	+11	+5	+11	+5

Clearly, the Republicans have a lot of work to do to catch up with Obama. After two years of ceaseless smears, Obama is still going very strong. Further smears aren’t going to cut it for the Republicans.

And Obama has most of the advantages. He is the power of incumbency. He will not have a bloody primary to fight. He will not have to shift his positions between the primary and general elections. And he has a long list of accomplishments to date.

Finally…Obama should achieve higher approval ratings over the next year. Political scientists have long noted that presidential approval suffers when his party is also in control of Congress. The House takeover by the Republicans last fall means that people’s opinions of Obama’s should rise. And that has been the trend since January.

You might say that Republicans taking the House in 2010 is Obama’s ticket to an easy re-election in 2012.

Newsy: Obama proposes clean energy tax cut.

Young Turks: Teabagger Rep. wrong about stimulus bill.

Ann Telnaes: Time to look beyond oil.

Lawrence O’Donnell and Bill Maher on John Boehner, Glenn Beck, Christine O’Donnell, & Elisabeth Hasselbeck.

Mike Papantonio and Shannyn Moore discuss the importance of progressive media for an informed, intelligent democratic society.

Young Turks: FAUX News insider tells all, “just make stuff up:

Ed and Pap: The CPAC freak show.

Maddow: Are Republicans beginning to understand the real cost of war?.

Newsy: New magazine for Teabaggers.

Ann Telnaes: The G.O.P. moves to restrict abortion funding.

Cheney called “war criminal” at CPAC.

President Obama addresses the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Topless Takedown:

• Newsy: Chris Lee scandal to resignation.
• Young Turks: “Values guy” resigns.

ONN Radio News: U.S. Takes out debt consolidation loan.

Newsy: O’Reilly’s Interupt-a-thon.

Ed and Pap: GOP Congress bows to Koch brother’s power.

Liberal Viewer: Colbert, cops say taser of innocent not excessive?.

Newsy: Mubarak refuses to resign despite rumors.

Sam Seder: G.O.P. meltdown over Patriot Act.

Cenk: The truth about Ronald Reagan.

Mark Fiore: Aggregation!

Egypt in Political Turmoil:

• Cenk: Revolution well done.
• Maddow: The Caliphate is Coming, The Caliphate is Coming.
• The Partisans: A message for Egypt:
• Cafferty files: Palin’s “opinion” on Egypt.
• Sam Seder and Juan Cole on crisis in Egypt.
• Newsy: Mubarak resigns–for real this time
• Pres. Obama on a historic day in Egypt.

Young Turks: Conservative blogger gives more details on Nikki Haley’s affair.

Newsy: Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) to retire.

VP Joe Biden: Building a 21st century infrastructure.

ONN: Nation elects first openly drunk Senator.

Ann Telnaes: Justice Clarence Thomas’s wife forms lobbying firm.

Teabagging Troubles:

• Young Turks: Congressional teabaggers kill Patriot Act.
• GRIT TV: A bipartisan future on civil liberties?
• Newsy: Trouble in the House.
• Young Turks: Palin v. Santorum.

Young Turks: GOP Rep. on how being gay is deadly.

My Congressman (Rep. Jay Inslee) Inslee questions Senator Inhofe in E&C Committee hearing.

Pap: Lobbyists already control the new GOP Congressmen.

Newsy: Trump for Preznit.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I’ve been both nervous and excited to watch the events in Egypt unfold over the past few weeks. After visiting some friends in Cairo in 2007, the nation remains a special place to me. Seeing some of those friends disappear from Facebook from a few days at the end of January gave me an ominous feeling that things wouldn’t turn out well. It seemed for a while that the long-held belief that Mubarak could never be dislodged was being tested to its limits, only to be reinforced with a bloody crackdown.

This victory doesn’t just change the regime in Egypt, it changes the mindset of the Egyptian people and beyond. After the Tunisian revolution, some people in Egypt started to imagine that it could happen there, but many others still didn’t. In fact, the friend I stayed with in Cairo was traveling through Europe for work when the protests started and wasn’t expecting much of anything to come of them. A week later, he was trying to get back into the country to join the chorus of Egyptians who’d despised Mubarak for years but felt powerless to do anything about it. Today Egyptians feel a greater sense of having the power to bring about change on their own. And other long-repressed peoples are starting to believe that they can too.

Eight years ago, as we were preparing to enter Iraq, many supporters of the invasion believed that toppling Saddam Hussein’s regime would be the domino that inspires others to rise up against their own oppressors, but it never happened. Instead, Iraq descended into bloody civil war and authoritarian countries like Iran were able to tighten their grip. It was never well-understood that in order for totalitarianism to give way to democracy, the people of that country have to fight that battle themselves. We can’t make that transition for them. The Egyptian people didn’t – and still don’t – need our help to build a nation with greater freedom and democratic values. They just risked their lives for it. They know what they want – and if left alone, they’ll build it. And that’s more likely to be the impetus that brings greater freedom and democracy to that entire region.

No. Really. This time he has. About an hour ago, Egypt’s new vice president appeared on state television and announced that Mubarak is out, and power temporarily resides with the Supreme Council of Egypt’s armed forces. This after millions of people poured into Egypt’s streets today.

There are a lot of questions moving forward, of course. But for the moment, there are wild celebrations in Egypt, and a spring in the step of freedom-loving people around the world.

Lots going on in the legislature and elsewhere right now regarding marijuana law reform:

– The medical marijuana bill that would allow dispensaries and licensed growers has advanced to the Ways and Means committee, but not without a series of amendments that concern the Cannabis Defense Coalition. My two biggest concerns – from a pragmatic standpoint – are the reduction in the size of cooperative grows and the extra requirements being imposed on health care professionals, but this bill is still a step forward and would still solve the fundamental access issue. Another issue, however, is the patient registry, which was optional in the original bill, but is now mandatory in order to avoid potentially being arrested. Patients worry that signing up for the registry could make it easier for criminal elements or law enforcement to discover where they live and make them targets for burglaries or harassment.

– You can watch the testimony on the full legalization bill, HB1550, from Tuesday’s session of the House Public Safety & Emergency Preparedness Committee here. It’s not clear that this bill will go any further, so supporters are encouraged to call the committee members and request that this bill receive a vote.

Hurst, Christopher (D) Chair (360) 786-7866
Ladenburg, Connie (D) Vice Chair (360) 786-7906
Pearson, Kirk (R) (360) 786-7816
Klippert, Brad (R) (360) 786-7882
Armstrong, Mike (R) (360) 786-7832
Hope, Mike (R) (360) 786-7892
Kirby, Steve (D) (360) 786-7996
Ross, Charles (R) (360) 786-7856

If you call, you might want to mention that this is an issue that enjoys very strong support throughout the United States.

– Sensible Washington is getting ready to begin their signature gathering effort. They expect to start collecting signatures by the last week in February. If they get the 241,000+ signatures they need, we’ll have an alternative to relying on an incompetent and out-of-touch legislature in order to finally end this ridiculous prohibition.

Awww…how adorable. Birfer humor at CPAC:

UPDATE 1:15 PM

Never mind. Mubarak offered a few new concessions, but, in the words of Al Jazeera English, “made it clear that he wasn’t going anywhere.”

As any student of politics knows, this won’t end anything. Basic political science is that revolutions are most likely to happen not when an oppressed people are at their most desperate, but when they have hope and that hope is denied. True to form, the masses now gathering in Tahrir Square and elsewhere (at nearly midnight local time) are staggeringly angry.

To be continued…

= = =

Numerous outlets are now reporting that in an address to his country in the next few hours, Hosni Mubarak will step down as Egypt’s president, handing power over to (depending on the report) either his newly anointed vice president or the military.

If true, the question, of course, is where Egypt goes from here. But for the time being, this is a remarkable victory for people power. A leaderless, youth-dominated movement, without initiating any violence, has removed from power a brutal dictator of three decades, backed by billions of dollars in military aid from the most powerful country in the world. Can’t have a much more powerful expression of democracy than that.

If I’d told you that Joni Balter had a piece up about an election, would you think, maybe she’s going to write about the bond and levy elections that happened yesterday? Or perhaps the elections this November for Seattle City Council, King County Council, and various other municipalities around the state? 2012, and what the redistricting might do to state and Federal elections here in Washington? What will be the lines of the 10th district? Will she write about how Gregoire’s probable retirement means a reshuffling of the state’s executive branch? The president? No, stupid, none of those things, something that will happen after all of them. She’s writing about the mayor’s race.

It’s summer 2013: The southern half of the Alaskan Way Viaduct came down 10 months ago, creating dust, noise and predictable simmering feuds. But at least the project advanced before a feared earthquake. At Seattle City Hall, the ground rumbles in another way.

Construction projects never have any delays. True fact. Also, did the demolition create predictable simmering feuds, or am I diagramming that sentence wrong?

A humdinger of a mayor’s race is taking place, pitting the biggest foe of the tunnel, Mayor Mike McGinn, against City Councilmember Tim Burgess and state Sen. Ed Murray, two project supporters. As the city keeps growing, the public is comfortable that a tunnel is being built to keep traffic moving.

Remember that list of elections that happens before the one we’re talking about? I’m not sure Burgess wins it. If the cost over runs measure gets on the ballot (a big if), I think a few members lose.

Also, Balter is awful confident that there won’t be any more traffic than when the Viaduct was up. That nobody will feel any ill effects from the tunnel. To be clear, the 2013 tunnel is coming in on time, under budget, and not negatively effecting anyone in this fantasy of hers. Since construction on 1st is already fucking up my commute, I find that tough to believe.

Also, also, humdinger? There are mummies who don’t use that phrase because it’s too passe. Anyway, skipping past bullshit digs at McGinn, we get back to the Burgess.

Burgess skated to re-election to his council seat in 2011 and has been a leader on the viaduct, parking, education, police accountability, the sea wall. Voters lapped up that Families and Education levy he and the mayor worked on in 2011.

Since Burgess in 2011 punts on police accountability and the seawall, it’s tough to imagine why he’ll be taking the lead in 2013. Everyone thinking about running for anything in Seattle will support the Families and Education levy, so I’m not sure why that’s his. On parking he’s mostly modifying McGinn’s proposal, and it will be 3 years old by the time of the election. I’m not familiar with his education plank (or if it’s made up like some of the other things). So mostly that’s things McGinn has done better through 2011. But if you think the tunnel will be made of pixie farts, and not cause any problems then score one for Burgess.

Look, I’m probably McGinn’s biggest supporter among bloggers. I voted for him somewhat reluctantly in the primary, and volunteered for him in the general because I really didn’t like his anti-choice-corporate-bigwig-I’m-going-to-buy-the-election opposition. But I was skeptical that the Mike Bikes thing was real. I was skeptical that he’d pull for the city when things got tough. I was wrong, and he’s the rare breed of politician who has exceeded my expectations.

But I understand that our last 2 mayors lost primaries for reelection. And that not everybody likes his style. So, he could lose. I’d rather someone who loses by doing good for the city than the seat warmers we’ve had for the past 50 years or so.

Anyway the conceit of this piece after I read Balter’s column was to spin out things that could happen to those people that weren’t that much more unlikely. Burgess loses in November, Murray decides to run for governor. And that the Seattle Times folds in early 2013. But the way I wrote it, it’s mostly just Burgess bashing instead. Since I’ve lost the whole thread, I’ll just end here.

Another married Republican politician is caught trolling for sex on the intertubes (via Gawker):

Rep. Christopher Lee is a married Republican congressman serving the 26th District of New York. But when he trolls Craigslist’s “Women Seeking Men” forum, he’s Christopher Lee, “divorced” “lobbyist” and “fit fun classy guy.” One object of his flirtation told us her story.
[…]

By modern day standards, the conversation was relatively banal: No prostitutes, escorts, or madams were involved. Just good old fashioned lying and an apparent willingness to cheat on one’s wife.

The woman says she cut off contact when she searched for Lee online and concluded he’d lied about his age and occupation. Then she forwarded us the correspondence.

Lying, willingness to break his marriage vows…and sheer stupidity! Seriously…the dude didn’t even change his name and then sends the woman a topless photo of himself. Was he trying to create a public scandal?

Perhaps there is something about diaper fetishes that gives unfaithful Republicans the courage to not resign in the humiliation of a public scandal. But Rep. Lee is no Sen. Vitter. Rather, he’s now former Rep. Christopher John Lee.

Update: Hellooooo Carl Paladino! (Via Swing State Project.)

So, last weekend I called up Goldy to ask how the new job was going. I was, shall I say, a bit underwhelmed by the volume of Goldy bylines on Slog.

“Look…”, I said, “Paul Constant, the freaking book editor, is kicking your ass in number of posts.”

“Yeah…well there was a lot of paperwork on Wednesday…”

Then Goldy intimated that he hardly had time to post because he was working on some “longer pieces.” It sounded plausible, but I had some lingering doubts.

Perhaps getting up in the morning, getting dressed up for work (you know, putting on a pinstripe navy blue blazer and chaps), and heading to the office was really hard for Goldy—it messed up his head for writing. Or maybe he was rendered dysfunctional all afternoon because he couldn’t take his mid-day nap. Who knows.

Well my doubts have been allayed for the time being. Today’s edition of The Stranger contain a news piece by Goldy entitled “The Welfare State”:

When our state’s rural Republicans toss around pejoratives like “socialism,” “redistribution of wealth,” and “welfare state,” they’re usually hurling them at the People’s Republic of Seattle and the Democratic legislators we send to Olympia. As a commenter on the Spokane Spokesman-Review’s website recently carped: “Eastern Washington… has always been shorted/slighted where state expenditures are concerned! Nearly to the point that we don’t exist!”
[…]

However, the money is not exactly moving in the direction most Eastern Washingtonians suspect.

Goldy pulls together some pieces he has blogged on over the past weeks to nail an important and under-appreciated point:

The irony here is not that those who benefit most from state spending are paying the least; that’s kinda the way these things are supposed to work. No, the irony is that those rural communities that are most dependent on the state—whose roads and schools and other essential public services couldn’t possibly be maintained without generous state subsidies—are also those least likely to vote for the tax dollars necessary to sustain these services.

So…with a 1 kiloword news piece in the print edition, I guess Goldy has done alright for week one. I’ll be generous and give him a B+.

But, geez, Goldy, for week two? At least try to keep up with the book guy.

Via TPM:

Failed GOP Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell is back, and she’s telling supporters she wants her newly formed political action committee ChristinePAC to “investigate and counter attack leftwing groups.”

O’Donnell, who wrote that her losing campaign sent “shockwaves” throughout the nation, said in an e-mail to supporters Tuesday that her group will look into the groups “funded with one million dollars or more from billionaire leftist George Soros.”

Ya know, it sounds to me like Ms. O’Donnell is on some kind of witch hunt.