HorsesAss.Org

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally meets tonight. There is much to talk about: Jay Inslee is in for Governor, and is leading McKenna in a new poll. Roger Goodman will run for Inslee’s 1st congressional district seat. Secretary of State Sam Reed is out, leaving three open statewide contests for 2012. Oh…and Seattle police leave an assault rifle unattended on a patrol car!

Please join us tonight for drinks, conversation, dinner, and assault weapons tips at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but a few folks show up around 7:00 pm for dinner.

Actual Google News screencapture:

Can’t make it tonight? There will be a special fireworks edition of Drinking Liberally, Newport Hills on the 4th of July. The fun begins at the Mustard Seed, 7:00 PM. Then, at about 8:30 or 9:00, they’ll make a short trip over to Newcastle’s Lake Boren park for the fireworks.

Finally…Have you registered for NWroots on July 9th? First Congressional District candidate Roger Goodman will open up the conference, announce his candidacy, talk a bit about the disastrous war on drugs, then introduce the current 1st District Congressman and gubernatorial candidate, Jay Inslee. Other featured speakers are 4th Congressional Candidate Jay Clough, attorney Cyrus Habib, “dreamer” Also Chehade, Washington State Labor Council President Jeff Johnson, Congressmen Jim McDermott and Dennis Kucinich, and, a special guest from Canada, former Canadian Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh, who will address single payer health care. There will be sessions and panels on the media, health care, immigration, labor, agricultural policy, the mortgage crisis, electronic voting issues, and an excellent 25 minute documentary on Afghanistan. There will be a candidates social, a special musical performance by the Total Experience Gospel Choir, and an after-party at Seattle’s oldest saloon. Find more information and register here.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know, it is really early. And yeah, the polls don’t mean much now. Blah, blah, blah.

Ya know, the score in a basketball game doesn’t mean much after the first 5 minutes either, and yet there is that score in the corner of the screen. So if you don’t want to see the score, go away…now.

What’s the score, you ask, in the gubernatorial race between Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) and Attorney General McKenna (R-WA) race? Five minutes into the game, Inslee is up slightly. The score is based on a SurveyUSA poll of 515 registered Washington voters taken from 24 Jun to 26 Jun.

Out of the 515, Inslee got 242 “votes” (47%) and McKenna got 227 (44%) “votes”. If we look only at those who picked Inslee or McKenna, Inslee has a 51.6% to 48.4% advantage.

As I’ve done for years, the polling results are analyzed by Monte Carlo simulations of 1,000,000 elections of 515 voters who each have a 47% chance of voting for Inslee and a 44% chance of voting for McKenna. The point is to get an estimate of the probability that each candidate would win the election, if the election was held today.

The final tally gives Inslee 687,927 wins to McKenna’s 300,837 wins. This suggests that, in an election held now, Inslee would have a 69.6% chance to McKenna’s 30.4% chance of winning, simply based on the evidence from this one poll. Here’s the picture of all outcomes from the simulated elections:

This is the second poll from Survey USA in this race. The early May poll had McKenna leading Inslee by +7 (48% to 41%) before either had declared their candidacy. If the election had been held back then, McKenna would have won with a 90% probability. Some difference a month and a half makes!

Via KING5:

Washington Secretary of State Sam Reed is announcing this morning that he will not seek re-election when his term ends in 2012.

That makes three open statewide races (Governor, SOS, and AG) in a year for which turn-out will be high on account of the the presidential race. Conventional wisdom would give a boost to the Democratic candidates because of the higher turnout.

Will conventional wisdom hold for 2012? Or will a “throw the bums (i.e. Democrats) out” mentality shake things up in favor of Republicans? Unlikely. First off, the SOS and AG positions are currently held by Republicans. For the gubernatorial race Chris Grygiel argues that Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) doesn’t look like the insider:

Voters nationally – and to a certain extent locally – have expressed a strong “throw the bums out” mentality. They seem to be willing to give newcomers a chance. So how can Inslee, a longtime incumbent, beat the “bum” rap? He’ll be new to voters outside of the two Congressional Districts where he’s held office. Again, conventional wisdom says McKenna has the edge because he’s won statewide office twice – Inslee never has. But another way of looking at that is voters haven’t had a chance to get sick of Inslee yet.

And, of course, McKenna is an Olympia insider….

Finally, State Senator Jim Kastama (D-Puyallup) has announced on his blog that he is running for SOS:

Today, Kastama confirmed he would seek the office of Washington State Secretary of State. Kastama will make a formal public announcement at the Puyallup City Hall 25th district legislative reception on July 5th at 6:00 pm.

Fun stuff!

This editorial in The Seattle Times is not horrible. And in fact, other than the presumption that we need cuts to Social Security benefits most of the ideas mentioned are good.

In politics, there is a tendency not to praise the player who makes the concession that is obvious to you and everyone else but wasn’t to him. That is a mistake. The federal budget deficit is so huge that all the players have to make concessions. All of them find it difficult.

When they make concessions, they need to be praised — and reminded to follow through.

Oh, I know! Tax increases for the wealthy. That’s a concession that the Republicans still aren’t willing to make. Also, The Seattle Times doesn’t mention that we could get more from a federal estate tax. I mean if the deficit is really the biggest most important thing ever and all of the players need to reevaluate their intransigent stance, then they’ll surely reconsider their position on that. So I look forward to their next editorial where they demand to be taxed at a higher rate. I’ll praise it.

With Jay Inslee’s announcement that he’ll run for governor, another anticipated development took place. State Rep. Roger Goodman has amended his filing paperwork to officially run for Congress in the 1st CD – for the seat that Inslee will be vacating. Up until now, Goodman had filed to run in the 8th CD (he lives in the 1st CD, close to the boundary between the two districts).

As everyone here probably knows by now, I have a tremendous amount of respect for Goodman’s record both before and after he became an elected official. He’s been a pioneer in drug law reform – first at the King County Bar Association and later in the legislature – and has both solidly progressive sensibilities and a genuine talent for finding solutions to difficult problems that go beyond partisanship. I’m certain that whoever he ends up running against will try to use his background in drug law reform against him, and I expect that strategy to fail as spectacularly as it has for the two candidates who tried that strategy in the 45th LD races.

– I hope Washington isn’t the next to pass gay marriage. But only, because there are some states that could finish it up before our legislature reconvenes.

– This is worse than what Weiner did, so I’m sure the Republicans will demand he resign.

– Democracy!

– A lot will happen in the governor’s race, but this is good news.

– Don’t over think it.

– Some pictures from Olympia.

We’ve known this day would come for years. Congressman Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) is now running for governor.

As a constituent of Rep. Inslee, I am pleased by the announcement. Jay is progressive. He has a strong record on the environment. He sees an important role of technological leadership in the economy of the future. Basically, he is strong on many of the issues that are important to me.

And he is one of the few politicians around who can beat Rob McKenna. That’s particularly to me, as I have watched this state embark upon a journey toward Alabamization—a journey that would be furthered with a Gov. McKenna. Don’t believe me? Look at what is happening in every state with a newly elected Republican Governor….

I am not claiming that Inslee will win, just that he can. It’s going to be a battle.

In 2004, Dino Rossi almost won the Governor’s mansion because the voters never really got to know him. Rossi was a known quantity by 2008, and the voters rejected him (and one more time after that).

In 2012 the problem will be that people think they know McKenna. McKenna has skillfully spun himself as a moderate while capitalizing on his AG position to pass himself off as a populist. But there is evidence to suggest McKenna is far more conservative than people’s perception of him. The one slip-up in this regard was McKenna’s surprising decision to join the lawsuit against the Affordable Health Care Act. What other surprises does Rob McKenna have for us?

Inslee, with his rich legislative record, is a known quantity, but not well known by Washingtonians. I suspect that the more people get to know Inslee, the better they will like him. For McKenna, the more people get to know him…the less they will like him. So let the learning begin!

As scary as this article is, I don’t think Michelle Bachmann will be the VP selection for the 2012 GOP ticket. I think she’ll be at the top of the ticket figuring out who her running mate will be at this time next year.

UPDATE: I realized after I posted this that I still haven’t read Matt Taibbi’s Rolling Stone piece on Bachmann. I should probably read through that to be absolutely sure I’m not talking out of my ass.

UPDATE: [Darryl]: Is Michelle Bachmann really a flake? Or is her problem being fuckin’ nuts? We link…you decide.

UPDATE: [Darryl]: Her first post-announcement blunder: Bachmann compares her spirit to a notorious serial killer. Still unresolved: Is she a flake, or is she fuckin’ nuts?

I’m starting to wonder if anyone on the staff of the Tacoma News-Tribune has ever been outside the city of Tacoma. Here’s Brian O’Neill trying to figure out what happened at Tacoma Hempfest yesterday, where TPD busted several vendors for selling glass pipes:

The Trib article describing police arrests at Tacoma’s Hempfest also suggested that many of those given citations were also people deeply involved in the, pardon the pun, grassroots effort to legalize pot. The report also pointed out the general surprise regarding the police response, especially by those arrested for possession of drug paraphernalia and marijuana. One vendor commented that “I was dumbfounded” after being cited for having drug pipes.

That may be due to the potential changes many jurisdictions were expecting out of Olympia.

Um, no, it has nothing to do with that. It has to do with the fact that selling glass pipes has long been legal in the state of Washington (as it’s not hard to find stores in the city of Tacoma that sell these items). In addition, these vendors weren’t bothered last year, nor have they ever been bothered at Seattle Hempfest.

According to TPD, the contracts those vendors signed didn’t allow them to sell paraphernalia. It looks like this will end up being sorted out in a courtroom, once again showing how eager the Tacoma Police have been (and their loyal servants at the TNT) to waste taxpayer money in their obsession with pot.

Last week’s contest was won by Liberal Scientist. It was along the Seattle/Shoreline boundary just south of the Highlands.

This week’s contest is related to something in the news from the past month, good luck!

Leviticus 11:20-22
All flying insects that walk on all fours are to be regarded as unclean by you. There are, however, some flying insects that walk on all fours that you may eat: those that have jointed legs for hopping on the ground. Of these you may eat any kind of locust, katydid, cricket or grasshopper.

Discuss.

I think as the campaign season kicks into swing, I’m going to ask candidates for various offices questions. But I’d like to hear from the folks here. So far, I can think of some things I’d like to ask Seattle, King County, and Port candidates. If pressed, I could probably reasonably ask some things of some people running for mayor in some of the ring cities and some of the bigger cities in the area, or Seattle School board. But it’s an odd year, so nothing statewide. And I don’t know what local issues exist outside of the Puget Sound area.

Basically, while I have preferences that I’ll probably express pretty strongly about some of those positions between now and November, I want to ask questions that are more openended and to ask all of the candidates the same questions. So I’d email, say, 3-5 questions to each candidate per position and post them unedited here in some predetermined order on a predetermined date.

So is there anything you’d like a semi-popular Washington State political blog to ask of anyone?

Here are basically what I have so far, I’ve kept them vague for the most part so far so people can flesh out ideas in the comments without me saying here’s the question ahead of time:

Seattle City Council:

• Something about the Viaduct, probably cost overruns
• Something about police, preferably including accountability and safety
• Something about faster Internet across the city
• What is the city’s role in education and public transportation given how important they are to the city, but that other agencies are tasked with them?

King County

• Something about Metro service
• Something about services in general since the voters rejected Proposition 1 last year

Port of Seattle

• Something about how people run on reform, but it doesn’t seem like much has been done.
• How can the Port create jobs in the region?
• How can the Port reduce pollution/greenhouse gases, etc.
• Something about parks*

[Read more…]

Thom: Is Obama illegally spying on journalists?

Same Sex Marriage:

• Olbermann: Special comment on same sex marriage.
• Maddow: NY same-sex marriage bill passes.
• Young Turks: Obama’s position.
• Governor Andrew Cuomo speaks on same sex marriage.

Washington’s aerospace advantage.

Thom: The new money party.

Music video: Drones don’t get no parade.

Jon Goes Controversial:

• Newsy: Jon accuses FAUX News of selective deletion.
• Young Turks: Jon at war with Herman.

Olbermann and Markos: Inside the Republican cult.

Thom: Climate Change vs. Professional Wrestling.

Former U.S. Attorney John McKay backs effort to legalize pot:

Newsy: Gruesome cigarette labels.

The G.O.P. Funny Farm

• Lawrence O’Donnell: Huntsman the stuntman.
• Young Turks: Herman Cain’s idea is to put oil companies in charge of environmental regulations.
• Olbermann defines Randidate.
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Paul’s bullshit.
• Ann Telnaes: Newt and Callista.
• Cenk: Newt is Con Job of the Day.
• Olbermann defines Newtleywed.
• Maddow: Newt fund-raises for the family jewels.
• Sam Seder: Newt’s new campaign slogan, “I did it my way”:
• Ann Telnaes: Michelle Bachmann is running.
• Sam Seder with Matt Taibbi: God is Bachmann’s campaign manager.
• Olbermann: Fun facts about Michelle Bachmann.
• Rick Santorum oozes his way to Worst Person in the World.
• Ed with some Santorum psychotalk.
• Young Turks: Rick Perry’s joke fails.
• Young Turks: Follow Rick on “Tweeter”.

Thom: Did you know that fracking creates rainbows?

Ann Telnaes: G.O.P. debt reduction.

Pap: How capitalism has failed.

Afghanistan:

• Obama: Afghanistan
• Biden: Keeping the promise.

Thom with some more Good, Bad and Very, Very Ugly.

Maddow: Republicans strike another blow to the economy.

McCain’s Firestorm:Music video: Drones don’t get no parade.

Newsy: McCain’s comments stir up firestorm.

Justice Thomas’ Troubles:

• Young Turks: Is Justice Thomas corrupt?
• Olbermann and Turley: Justice Clarence Thomas’s problems.
• Maddow on Thomas.

Cenk: Republicans refuse to negotiate on budget.

Maddow: Nebraska nuclear power problem.

Georgia’s Matt Ramsey rots his way to Worst Person in the World.

Olbermann: The politics of pledge.

Palin Around With Crazy!

• Sam Seder: Sarah bails on tour bus.
• Young Turks: Sarah quits her tour.
• Ed: The Sarah Palin IQUITaROD
• Makeup Tips : Sarah Palin presidential look:
• Palin (silver) and Gingrich (bronze) almost take Worst Person in the World.

Ed: Republicans are deliberately sabotaging the economy.

Maddow: Kansas abortion clinic denied license under new law (via The Political Carnival).

Thom: The People versus Gov. Snyder (R-MI).

White House: West Wing Week.

War Powers Act or Acting?

• Ann Telnaes: Another Obama impersonator.
• Mark Fiore: Declaration of thingamajig.
• Ann Telnaes: Obama bypasses Congress…

Michelle Obama on meeting Nelson Mandela.

Ed: The Republican ruthless attack on jobless Wisconsin workers.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

– A tale of 2 headlines (h/t).

– Decent health care for the middle class is a feature of health care reform.

– Who could have predicted?

– Does anyone know where in Seattle you can catch the Women’s World Cup?

– Taste of Tacoma

I’m trying to get my head wrapped around this one. Obama claims that providing financing and logistic support to NATO, without a committment of armed forces, does not amount to making war on Libya and therefore is not covered by the War Powers Act of 1973.

Most Republicans (and some Democrats) think otherwise. They would call it war, and hence, claim that Obama is, as of Sunday, in violation of the War Powers Act.

Today there was a House vote to authorize limited military involvement in Libya. It failed 123 (yes) to 295 (no).

Washington’s delegation split along partisan lines with Democrats Dicks, Smith, McDermott, Inslee, and Larsen voting yes and Republicans Herrera Beutler, Reichert, Hastings and McMorris Rodgers voting no.

Huh…I distinctly remember George W. Bush suggesting that John Kerry’s criticisms against Bush’s handling of the Iraq war was giving aid and comfort to the enemy and endangering the troops.

So…if Obama is right in his interpretation of the War Powers Act, then the Republicans have engaged in little more than toothless political theater by defeating an unnecessary “authorization” today.

But if the Republicans are right in their belief that Obama is waging war in Libya in violation of the War Powers Act, then doesn’t their vote against authorizing the action mean, by their own standards, that they are giving aid and comfort to the enemy?

Yo Reps. Herrera Beutler, Reichert, Hastings and McMorris Rodgers did y’all just give Gaddafi a big ol’ group hug? And why are you willfully endangering the troops?