HorsesAss.Org

Darcy Burner gets her wish … and doesn’t.

Yes, her home is located in the 1st District. And yes, she’ll be in a no-incumbent CD. But no, it doesn’t much overlap with what had been Jay Inslee’s District. Most of it is what had been represented by Rick Larsen, who now has much of the former Inslee CD (and a safe Democratic seat).

I don’t know how most of the other 1st CD prospects made out.

Off the top of my head, I’d say that Marko Liias struck out … he’s almost surely in the new 2nd, and would have to face Larsen. I don’t know where in Snohomish Steve Hobbs lives. Suzan DelBene is now in the 9th District, with incumbent Adam Smith. The others — Goodman, Ruderman, and others — are still a mystery for me. [CORRECTIONS (12:51pm): If DelBene lives in Medina, she’s actually in WA-01, not WA-09. Roger Goodman is definitely in WA-01. It’s possible that Liias is now in WA-07, not WA-02 (either way, he’s SOL).]

Yes, majority-minority, but …

The redrawn 9th Congressional District is “only” 49.67% non-Hispanic white. However, it already has a well-entrenched incumbent in Adam Smith. And, as I noted yesterday, the voters of the CD will be majority non-Hispanic white.

In terms of cojones, Ceis and Gorton fought to a draw.

It really depends on the new 1st District. They built five Democratic Districts: 2nd (Larsen), 6th (Dicks), 7th (McDermott), 9th (Smith), 10th (Thurston County-based, no incumbent). There are three, maybe four, Republican CDs: the 4th (Hastings), 5th (McMorris Rodgers), and 8th (Reichert) are solid red, and the 3rd (Herrera Beutler) might, but probably doesn’t, have a whisper of a chance for a Democrat to squeeze her out. The new 1st will be the battleground. In a Presidential year, Democratic chances up there probably improve a bit.

More thoughts as I get a better chance to review the maps.

– When I finally stopped talking, I exhaled. I’d finally told someone I was falling for my whole story. And I was afraid that my biggest fear would come true: Aaron would look at me differently. (h/t)

– We might be all redistricted out by the end of the day, but this vignette from the 1960’s was fascinating.

– Is anyone else but Erika surprised that she finds it more remarkable that she would defend Kim Kardashian than that she would defend child sweatshops? You shouldn’t be because one of the questions on the wingnut welfare eligibility exam is to write an essay explaining the benefits of child sweatshops, poll taxes and climate change.

– Those Ron Paul newsletters are really, really, really awful.

– I think the question about Edgar Martinez and what would his Hall of Fame case would look like if he’d been a terrible third baseman is interesting.

Please join us tonight for an end-of-the year evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks will show up earlier for dinner.

Here’s what you need to know about Iowa:

Can’t make it to Seattle? There are also meetings tonight of the Tri-Cities chapter and the Bellingham chapter of Drinking Liberally. And tomorrow the Burien chapter meets. Also next Monday, there are meetings of the Olympia chapter, the Yakima chapter, and the South Bellevue chapter.

With 232 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

OK, OK … so maybe the story doesn’t quite merit the BREAKING!!! headline. Still, it’s news that will turn out to be big for all Washingtonians, for a decade.

At this afternoon’s meeting of the Washington State Redistricting Commission, it was announced that (at long last) a proposed map of 10 Congressional Districts will be unveiled tomorrow. It’s possible that they’ll even be able to put the new map on the Commission website ahead of time.

We’ve been waiting for another CD iteration for well over three months, since each of the four Commissioners presented his own version way back on September 13. This new proposal was hammered out between the two political heavyweights on the Commission — Tim Ceis (D) and Slade Gorton (R). If those two uber-partisans can agree on a single map, it’s very, very likely that that’ll be the final plan from the WSRC.

I eagerly await the results, so that we can learn the outcomes of two important issues, discussed below.

[Read more…]

NY Times tech blogger Nick Bilton has a thorn up his ass about the FAA prohibitions on electronic devices during take-off and landing. Bilton just cannot understand why some pilots are now being allowed to use iPads in the cockpit for paper flight manuals but he cannot use his Kindle for the take-off and landing parts of the flight.

As it happens, this is one of Goldy’s pet peeves as well. Neither person seems to believe that electronic devices can affect flight safety during critical (take-off and landing) phases of flights. At least Goldy leaves it at complaining and denial. But not Nick Bilton.

Bilton decided to do something about it. You know, use science and technology to “prove” that electronic devices are safe.

What he did, however, amounts to horse shit. As I show below, Bilton, sets-up and then destroys a straw-man argument.
[Read more…]

— Politico’s top unanswered political questions for 2012

— Washington’s minimum wage goes up next week

— Goldy: “An NHL team? Fuck yeah!”

— Washington business leaders are open to a tax increase

— Seattle’s Lee Rhodes, creator of the Glassybaby, is awarded Entrepreneur Magazine‘s Entrepreneur of 2011

— TPM’s Year in Photos

Last week’s contest was won by wes.in.wa. It was Kennewick.

This week’s is related to something in the news from December. Good luck and Merry Christmas!

Jeremiah 10:1-5
Hear ye the word which the LORD speaketh unto you, O house of Israel:

Thus saith the LORD, Learn not the way of the heathen, and be not dismayed at the signs of heaven; for the heathen are dismayed at them.

For the customs of the people are vain: for one cutteth a tree out of the forest, the work of the hands of the workman, with the axe.

They deck it with silver and with gold; they fasten it with nails and with hammers, that it move not.

They are upright as the palm tree, but speak not: they must needs be borne, because they cannot go. Be not afraid of them; for they cannot do evil, neither also is it in them to do good.

Discuss. And, um, Merry Christmas.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Robert A. Niblock, CEO of Lowe’s is, Worst Person in the World.

Greenman: .

Young Turks: Police departments use drones to spy on Americans.

WI Secretary of State Scott Fitzgerald confirms his role as Worst Person in the World.

Politifact Gets Their Facts Wrong:

• Thom: Who’s fact checking the fact checker.
• Sam Seder: Politifact becomes Politi-not-so-fact.

Liberal Viewer: Detention without trial now in US law?

Young Turks: Hedge fund managers meet in secret with politicians.

Christmas goes Political:

• How the Gingrich Stole Christmas:
• Susie Sampson tackles the War on Christmas.
• The Obamas honor military families for the holidays.
  
• Mark Fiore: Twas the Night before Newt.
• Maddow: Newt’s little Virginia problem.
• Young Turks: Pro-adultery site endorses The Newt.
• Hell freezes over? Thom agrees with Newt about stopping the Supreme Court.
• Maddow: Palin on Obama’s Christmas card.
• Young Turks: Newt’s “arrest ‘activist’ Judges with U.S. Marshalls”.
• Red State Update: Divided nation Christmas:
• Santa Election.
• Sam Seder and friends with an update on The War on Christmas.
• Eric Schwartz: Christmastime in LaLa Land.
• A Christmas Carol For the Rest of Us:

Ed: Gov. Scott walker schooled by constituent on voter fraud.

Ann Telnaes: Shooting for Justice.

Thom: How Republicans, the Koch Bros & Walker could lose the right to vote.

Sam Seder: GOP lies, “Unemployment benefits encourage people not to work”.

The G.O.P. Christmas Massacre of 2011:

• Olbermann and Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) on What is going on in the house.
• Thom: The Teabagger Republicans just raised taxes on the 99%s.
• Young Turks: Republicans even lost the Wall Street Journal!
• Last Word: Boehner’s problem.
• Olbermann speaks with Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-NY) on the ideological battle behind it.
• Maddow: The Battle Royale in GOP D.C.
• Thom: Instead of tax breaks…G.O.P. vote on a bust of Churchill, out of Wingding conspiracy theory.
• President Obama: What 40 Dollars Means.
• Alyona: Republicans cave, Democrats show they have some balls (post OWS).
• Olbermann with Andy Kroll: Why Boehner caved.
• Obama’s big Christmas gift.

DADT just got its iconic image (via Slog).

Nutcase Ted Nugent crazies his way to Worst Person in the World.

White House: West Wing Week.

Alyona: Occupy the Iowa Caucus.

Young Turks: “Fetal personhood” initiative ruled misleading.

Thom with some more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

The G.O.P. Primary Carnival:

• Ed with Howard Dean on Newt and Mitt.
• Gingrich and Paul scare the bejesus out of Republican Leaders. Score, Mitt!
• “Any President Mr. Romney? Really”?
• Alyona’s Tool Time: Mitt Romney wants to ban PACs?!?
• Actual Audio: Donald Trump might still run!
• Alyona’s Tool Time: Bachmann is a “real person”.
• The Bachmann’s wish you a merry Christmas.
• Young Turks: Why Republicans are losing it over Ron Paul.
• Could Ron Paul destroy the Iowa caucuses?
• Alyona: MSM downplays Ron Paul’s Iowa lead.
• Ron Paul walks out on interview over newsletter questions.
• Red State Update: The Elf Who Liked Ron Paul.
• Young Turks: Ron Paul getting hate from the G.O.P. establishment.
• Ann Telnaes: Newt trims the Judicial branch.
• Actual Audio: Detention without trial now in US law?
  ‘>Newt’s newest campaign ad.
• Young Turks: Meghan McCain on the Callista Gingrich problem
• Sam Seder: Newt to gays, “vote for Obama if you want equal rights.”
• …or did he say that? Here is the video: You decide.

Young Turks: Pat Robertson, “Gays should unacquire their sexuality.

Jonathan Mann: Corporations are not people!

Matthew Thornton III, senior vice president for U.S. operations at FedEx, is thrown into ring as Worst Person in the World.

Lawrence O’Donnell: Top 5 political videos of the year.

Sam Seder: Those kooky racist Texas College Republicans are at it again!

Young Turks: Strange Kim Jon il facts.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I hope all of you have a Merry Christmas and a wonderful New Year. My time to write here has certainly been limited and that will likely continue through 2012, but I still really enjoy the HA community and value the feedback I get whenever I do have time to share my thoughts (which I do more and more on Twitter these days).

The next year will be an exciting one for our family. We’re expecting a baby daughter at the end of April. It’ll be our second. Zach is almost 3 now and is still a major chick magnet (if, by chick, you mean old ladies at the grocery store). We’ll see how much he enjoys being a big brother. Being a dad has been a wonderful journey, and if there’s anything that I don’t mind keeping me from being able to blog more, it’s that.

Happy Holidays and best wishes for the new year!

Carl mentioned this in the morning open thread, but I though it warranted its own post….

For many years now, the Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI) has been a strong voice in our region’s progressive activist community. One of their early projects was the NPI Portal, a set of tools to connect progressive bloggers and inform progressives.

NPI has now released version 5 of their portal, and it looks to be the best yet. You can read about all the changes here. But my recommendation is that you just go to the NPI Portal front page and check it out. The front page aggregates an incredibly useful amount of information, from news feeds, blogs, campaigns, etc.

There are numerous other cool things that I invite you to explore. I’ll just point out two that caught my attention. The first is a regional blog directory that has blogs organized by cities. It is fun clicking through and learn about what is going on around the Northwest blogosphere. Or…if you are planning a holiday in, say, Idaho Falls, check out the blogging scene in advance.

The Northwest Life page contains a lot of useful information—weather info, alerts, and useful links for anyone living in the Northwest.

Kudos to Andrew Villeneuve and his team at NPI for making a great set of tools even better.

HA seems to have eaten the last couple posts of mine. I’ve an out email to Goldy, but haven’t heard back. Here’s a replacement Open Thread

About four years ago, I examined how party identity had changed in both the U.S. and Washington state over a two year period following the mid-term elections. Writing about Washington state in 2007, I pointed out:

We have a somewhat wacky brand of Republicanism here. My impression is that the Washington state Republican party has moved significantly to the right to such an extent that the moderate Republican in Washington state seems like an endangered species.

A graph showing party identity over time, based on SurveyUSA polling data, showed some clear patterns:

Democratic identity had increased slightly from the low thirties to about 35%.

Republican identity had declined somewhat, from about 28% down to at least 25%, and 19% by July 2007.

Since mid-2007, we’ve had economic calamity, the Obama revolution, followed by a Tea Party revolt, and the Occupy movement in response. Unfortunately, SurveyUSA has only published data through August of this year, so we cannot look at changes brought on by the three month old Occupy movement. What we can do is look at a time period similar to my four year old analysis.

What do we see?

Not surprisingly, Democratic identity peaked shortly after Obama’s inauguration—it was in the low 40s in early 2009. Then, for a one year period, Democratic identity dropped to the mid- to low-30s, before a rocky recovery. By July of this year, Democratic identity was in the high 30s, only slightly down from the post-inauguration honeymoon.

In fact, Democratic identity is about where it was four years earlier, in July, 2007.

Republicans show a decline over the same period, from the high-20s just after the inauguration, followed by a gradual (if variable) decline to about 25% by July. Really, the Republican numbers are very similar to July of 2007.

Independent identity has increased from the mid-20% to the high-30%. One reason for this is an increase in the number of people who picked an identity as a “D”, “R”, or “I”, instead of an “other” category or a no-response.

For the first half of 2007, the spread between Democratic identity and Republican identity bounced around 10%, with a huge 18% spike in July. For 2011, the spread for the first half of the year is slightly over 10%.

What does all this mean? Maybe nothing. But it is interesting that we ended the summer in about the same place we were four years ago. There have been no real gains for Democrats or Republicans.

The one big difference we see is that more people chose to identify as independent instead instead of some other category. This might seem important for the many open statewide elections we have in 2012. A lot will probably be made about it. But I don’t think its all that important.

Here is what I think is happening: the increase in “D”, “R”, or “I” identity is an artifact of the top-two primary that was implemented in 2008. It simply reflects a decline in third-party identity. After a couple elections in which third-parties rarely make it to the general election (except, of course, presidential elections) people are less inclined to identify their party as, say, Libertarian, Green, or Reform.

If correct, this hypothesis suggests that the increase in Independent identity isn’t some sort of grand political movement…rather it’s a natural outcome of the top-two primary.

I mostly agree with The Seattle Times here on their piece about Mike Baumgartner, Cantwell’s maybe opponent next year. As I said in an earlier open thread, he’s a real piece of work for bringing up the fact that Cantwell isn’t married so she can’t have an opinion on Plan B. But for part of the editorial, they start with calling it a “rookie mistake.”

REASONABLE people can agree or disagree on the wisdom of making “morning-after” pills readily available to young teens. But Republican state Sen. Mike Baumgartner made a rookie mistake attacking U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell, the Democratic incumbent he is challenging in 2012.

I mean yeah, it was an asshole thing to do, but it would be an asshole thing to do no matter what the timing. They pivot to why it’s wrong, and as I say mostly it’s fine. But that phrase just rankled me: He’s a grown up, he’s run for office before. He should know better.

Just how badly has the G.O.P. lost on the payroll tax break issue? Bad enough to lose the Wall Street Journal editorial page opinion like this:

GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell famously said a year ago that his main task in the 112th Congress was to make sure that President Obama would not be re-elected. Given how he and House Speaker John Boehner have handled the payroll tax debate, we wonder if they might end up re-electing the President before the 2012 campaign even begins in earnest.

The GOP leaders have somehow managed the remarkable feat of being blamed for opposing a one-year extension of a tax holiday that they are surely going to pass. This is no easy double play.

That’s pretty damn bad.

And if that’s one outcome of yesterday’s House Republican fiasco, today’s theater should sting at least as much.

In trying to complete a quick pro forma session of the House today, Speaker Pro Tempore Michael Fitzpatrick (R-PA) walked away while Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) implored the House to take up the bill that would extend the tax break (via ThinkProgress):

Hoyer got a few good slams in on the Republicans before turning the microphone over to Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD). Van Hollen never got a chance. His microphone was cut off, and a few seconds later, the video feed was terminated.

But the issue isn’t just about how Scrooge-like the Republicans have become for the holiday season. The other side of this story is about the collapse of Republican discipline. Speaker Boehner had a revolt among the House masses that forced him to beg-off an agreement he made with the Senate leadership and, in particular, with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) (via Politico):

While the two men have been remarkably united this year, the year-end package has prompted an unusual amount of confusion, disunity, frustration and increased finger-pointing, both publicly and privately, between House Republicans and Senate Republicans over who is at fault in the political fiasco.
[…]

“This is a colossal fumble by the House Republicans,” said a senior Senate GOP aide, requesting anonymity to speak candidly about his own party. “Their inability to recognize a win is costing our party our long-held advantage on the key issue of tax relief. It’s time for Boehner and [House Majority Leader Eric] Cantor to look these rookies in the eye and explain how the game is won or lost.”

For most of the past year, the House Teabaggers have been less of a liability than I figured they would be. But with reelection campaigns on the horizon and a distinct lack of positive accomplishments to their credit, the House Teabaggers are feeling unsettled and maybe even nervous.

Boehner will have increasing difficulty keeping the feral hordes from further trashing the Party.