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Mitt Romney has mostly been the G.O.P. front runner for at least the past year. There are transient exceptions.

Most recently, from early November to mid-December of 2011, Newt Gingrich lead the Republican pack in the national polls. But Americans remembered why they despised Gingrich—an arrogant motherfucker, who is mean, nasty, and corrupt. Mitt re-took the lead as the first polls of 2012 came out.

Yesterday, a Rasmussen poll found Newt in the lead by a remarkable +7. And today, the Gallup tracking poll put Newt up by +3.

Once can be a fluke. But not twice in a row. It appears that Newt taken the lead—perhaps for a few days, or maybe right up to the convention.

One of the implications for me is that I should probably start doing state head-to-head matchups of Obama against both Newt and Mitt. When I started this year’s batch of analyses I wrote:

At this point, I am only doing analyses of an Obama versus Romney general election. As much as I would like to see one of the weaker candidates take the G.O.P. nomination, I’m pretty certain Republicans will, as they did in 2008, act rationally, and chose the candidate that performs best against Obama in head-to-head polling. That is currently Mitt Romney. As the Republican primary circus continues, I’ll reassess. If, say, Santorum trickles on up to the front (eww!) or there is a crazy surge for Ron Paul, or the Mittster takes a tumble after unintentionally tweeting a photo of his underwear, or Rick Perry challenges the rest of ‘em to a duel (and wins), I’ll switch do doing analyses for the new front-runner(s).

Mitt didn’t magically Tweet a bulge in his underwear, but he did release his tax forms. That’s pretty much the same thing. So, while I still believe Republicans will ultimately act rationally and pick the candidate who performs best against Obama, I’ll give you the same analyses for the mean motherfucker who thinks knows he is the smartest man in the world.

I started collecting poll information for Newt last night. Perhaps I’ll have the first Obama—Gingrich analyses out by tomorrow.

Day by day it gets harder to defend Republicans against the charge that they are collectively stark-raving mad. I don’t know why I try any more:

An Oklahoma lawmaker files a bill to ban the making and selling of food or products that use aborted human fetuses.

State Senator Ralph Shortey says he’s done research and found reports that companies have used stem cells in the research and development of food.
[…]

“There is a potential that there are companies that are using aborted human babies in their research and development of basically enhancing flavor for artificial flavors,” says [State Senator Ralph] Shortey.

Okay, so it’s not really insanity. You see, some of these “concerned” lawmaker types just haven’t yet learned how to filter truth from fiction, fact from rumor, science from made-up-shit-designed-to-freak-people-out that one occasionally comes across whilst doing “research” on the InnerTubes.

This reminds me of a previous State of the Union address where some stark-raving mad indiscriminate presidential speech writer slipped into the speech some InnerTube weirdness about the dangers of human animal hybrids.

Okay…I am stuck in traffic on Montlake. But I can, apparently drive and blog, so here is the thread. Enjoy the discussion while I enjoy the fragrence of car exhaust.

6:11: I made it to the Montlake Alehouse just in time for the start. Man…it took 30 minutes to drive from UW campus…a 20 minute walk….

6:15: This morning, Boehner was calling Obama un-American. This evening he has to introduce Obama to the entire nation. Awwwwwwkward.

6:18: Biden is doing a great job keeping that spot on his forehead stationary, while moving his head around it. Great party (and SOTU) trick!

6:19: Obama wears a red tie. Boehner wears a blue tie. This is the dawning of a new age of bipartisanship!

6:24: Even Boehner is being forced to clap (gingerly) at some of these tax ideas. Poor guy…it must hurt.

6:25: Eric Cantor is thinking, “Oh my God…we’re going to have to oppose this?!?”

6:34: Obama plots to get more young people into those institutes of liberal indoctrination…. Educated citizens == Bad for Republicans

6:35: Obama channels Rick Perry on illegal immigration. How can the Republicans not feel all warm and cozy inside?

6:39: Mitch McConnell was obviously heavily sedated prior to the SOTU address.

6:42: Republicans are all like, “boooooo…clean energy….bad, bad, bad.”

6:44: Watch…dollars to doughnuts, next week there is a house bill to prevent the military from investing in clean energy.

6:47: There Obama goes again, pandering to the “millions of innocent Americans”. What about the millions of guilty Americans????

6:49: Thanks, TV people, for that magnificent view of Holy Joe’s facial pores.

6:51: What kind of anti-American bastard is Boehner…he isn’t wearing a flaggy-flag pin!

6:55: Tax breaks for the wealthy or keep our investments? I wonder what Republicans would choose?

6:58: Obama argues for investing in the future. Yeah…like that is going to win over the selfish teabaggers.

7:01: Obama has a new theme…the divide between Washington D.C. and the rest of America. This could be a potent theme. But the follow-up was pretty weak. (I don’t think insider trading by congresscritters really highlights the problem.)

7:11: Joe Biden wipes away a small tear.

7:14: Obama uses graphical imagery to help us all live the assassination of Osama bin Laden.

It’s over. Obama was pretty much focusing on common (D & R) themes. “Send me bills and I’ll sign them.”

Now we can enjoy the Republican rebuttal followed by the Michele Bachmann second rebuttal….

7:29: Mitch Daniels seems angry. Given his approval ratings, I guess he has good reason to be angry.

7:30: “With a government as big and bossy as this one….” What a fucking pathetic whiner!

7:31: Gloom and Doom! What a pessimistic son-em-bitch.

7:32: Carl Ballard: “I’m surprised how political the speech is!”

7:33: “Being a businessman is the most noble of human pursuits”…which pretty much means that Mitch—the politician—is self-loathing.

7:35: Mitch Daniels looks like the very model of a modern undertaker.

7:38: Mitch criticizes “Obama” by quipping about freedom to choose the right light bulb. Apparently he doesn’t realize that the lightbulb thing was done by the BUSH administration…while he was director of the Office of Budget Management. What a fucking dolt!

Mitch Daniels gives the second worse Republican response. It will take generations to out bad Bobby Jindal. But damn he tried.

7:52: There seems to be a live Tarantula on Mitt Romney’s head!

7:53: Did anyone notice that both Mitch Daniels and Mitt Romney have defaced flaggy-flag pins on? There is a big blotch in the middle of the stripes. Some say, communists do that.

7:57: Poor Mitt…all those millions and he still cannot keep his hair under control…

It’s State of the Union season. So please join us this evening for a State of the Union under the influence edition of Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00 pm, but this week we start at 6:00 pm to catch the start of the SOTU address.

Of course we will be live-blogging the SOTU address from Drinking Liberally, so if you cannot make it to DL, join the discussion right here.

On another topic: Newt or Mitt?

Can’t make it tonight? There are also meetings on Tuesday evening of the Tri-Cities and Bellingham chapters. And Wednesday evening, the Burien chapter meets. So…with 230 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

– Rick Sntourm thinks being forced to carry a rapist’s child is a gift from God.

– While the title of this piece seems to imply that any gains for women are a loss for men, I think the overall the discussion of electing women in Washington, and across the nation, is worth having.

– That means I knock on one more door, I make that extra phone call, I nag my friends and family members to make sure their asses are registered and know where their polling place is…I volunteer, even though I’m tired…I stuff envelopes, even though I’d rather be [insert any of the many things I set aside during an election year].

– Thomas Friedman is full of shit.

– The Bikery

– The Oscar nominations. Some years I’ve seen none of the nominated movies; this year I saw Moneyball, so I guess I’ll root for that.

Debate. Florida. Tonight. 6:00 pm local time.

This one could be an earth scorcher.

Consider this. The past couple of weeks of polls have had Romney leading Gingrich by double digits in Florida. Today, there were two new polls released, and Gingrich leads Romney by +8 and +9.

Romney needs to do something different—that could be quite interesting.

Gingrich needs to not screw up, yet remain on the attack. He needs to show is fangs, but probably not bite anyone but the media.

Santorum and Paul are there for the shits and giggles.

I’ll live blog when I can, but I may have a couple of interruptions.

Live stream is at NBC here.

6:08: Mitt comes out attacking Gingrich…but he is using too much, too soon. Clearly, when it come to attacking, Mitt is a novice.

6:10: Newt says Mitt is “a lousy historian.” Yeah…I’ll bet Mitt never earned a monthly “retainer” of $25000 to $30000 to serve as an “historian.”

6:12: I think Rick Santorum is saying something.

6:14: Ron Paul, “The delegates is what counts.”

6:16: Will Ron Paul run as a 3rd party candidate. “No plans to do that.”

6:18: Mitt on what is controversial in his tax returns: “No surprises.” “But the real question is the American people…”taxes too intrusive”, “lower tax rates”, “pro-growth tax policy”, blah, blah, blah.

6:21: Priceless: Newt gets Romney to volunteer that under his (Newt’s) tax plan, Mitt would have paid zippo, zilch, zero tax (’cause his income is all capital gains).

6:24: I think Santorum just burbled something.

6:25: Seriously…Santorum is almost incomprehensible tonight. He’s pullin’ a Perry.

6:26: Newt defends his $25,000 to $30,000 PER MONTH “historical consulting” retainer: We had a consultant come in and tell us the fine line between lobbying and citizen activism.

6:30: The debate briefly spirals out of control with Newt and Mitt arguing back and forth. Perhaps the moderators have fallen asleep?

6:32: Mitt thinks influence peddling is “not right.” I am sure he will shut down K-street should he become preznit.

6:37: Rick Santorum’s “Free Market”: let the banks fail, but help people get out from being underwater. Ron Paul’s “Free Market”: let the banks fail, and let people fail.

6:41: Newt: “Repeal Dodd–Frank and the economy will recover overnight.” Ummm….didn’t the economy tank—and remain tanked—before Dodd–Frank was passed?!?

6:44: Mitt, “The President has taken a VERY DANGEROUS PATH with regard to Cuba.” WTF?!?

6:44: Newt: Fidel Castro is going to hell.

6:45: Paul: “The Cold War is over!” “I don’t know why all the Cubans are so intimidating.”

6:47: Santorum: “Sanctions in Cuba should continue until the Castros are dead.” WTF?!?

6:48: Santorum seems to be claiming that Cuba has become a platform for Jihad. Perhaps he believes “Jihad” is waged by all people with darkish skin.

6:49: Mitt, again, claims that the “Navy is smaller than any time since 1917.” Politifact: Pants on Fire.

7:00: Santorum gets all scaremongery over Iran. Still…no evidence that they are developing a nuclear weapon.

7:02: Santorum: Pipelines and off-shore rigs are the safest way to transport oil. I guess that works…if we live in the Middle East.

7:03: Newt tries to justify is lunatic rantings about the need for English as an Official Language. Sure…that will solve the problem.

7:04: Mitt agrees. Paul…let the States decide what is best for them.

7:06: Newt and Mitt: Dream Act for foreign mercenaries Only!

7:08: Mitt relies on people “self-deport[ing]” when they are dying of hunger.

7:09: Newt on sugar, “In an ideal world you would have an open market”…but I couldn’t do anything about it. I tried.

7:11: Mitt: Just get rid of sugar subsidies.

7:11: Mitt: “Everything Obama has done has made it worse for Florida.”

7:19: Did Historian Newt just mis-remember the Terry Schaivo case? I think Newt said her husband wanted her to live.

7:21: Mitt wants NASA to be a collaboration between government, private business, and our educational institutions. Wait…isn’t that what’s going on right now?

8:03: I was in there up to 7:25—the final break. I was “on” for dinner, so during the breaks I was running out to the kitchen to prepare enchiladas.

Wrap-up:

Newt wins. He made no gaffes. He weaseled his way out of questions about his past ethics violations and failed House leadership.

Mitt isn’t very good on the attack—to me, his attempts fell flat.

What we have here, folks, is a two way race that is nearly tied: Mitt, the rich boy who desperately wants to be President and Newt, the self-confessed smartest man in the world, who knows the position needs him.

A press release was just issued stating that Sen. Mary Margaret Haugen (D-10 LD) will support Senate Bill 6239, that will legalize same-sex marriage in Washngton state.

The Senate bill was introduced with 23 sponsoring senators. Last Thursday, Sen. Jim Kastama (D-25 LD) signed on.

And then there was 25.

Passage is all but certain in the House, which means same-sex marriage is coming to Washington.

Opponents have promised to put a referendum on the ballot. But, considering that a recent Washington Poll poll found 55% to 38% support for such a referendum, this pretty much works in favor of those supporting equal rights for same sex couples. Having the referendum on the ballot may well encourage disgruntled liberals to participate in other high-stakes elections.

Update: Within minutes of posting this, I received a robo-poll from the National Organization for Marriage seeking my opinion whether “marriage should be between one man and one woman only.” I said, “no”, and was then asked my sex and whether I was over 50 years old.

Their web site proclaims:

The National Organization for Marriage (NOM) today pledged to work with allies in Washington State to mount a referendum campaign to ensure that voters have the final say on the definition of marriage in Washington. Legislation, House Bill 2516 and Senate Bill 6239, has been introduced to abandon Washington’s historic definition of marriage as the union of one man and one woman, thus imposing same-sex marriage on the state.

Just one more reason why the 2012 election will be extraordinary.

– Explains South Carolina as well as anything.

– Family Values

– When a politician declares the end of something, it’s almost always the beginning, not the end.

– Scenes from the class war

– Terrible tee shirts.

– Tumwater Falls

Gabrielle Giffords is going to step down from Congress this week. I certainly don’t want to tell her how to recover or what’s best for her. I wish her the best, and if this is what’s right for her, I support her doing it 100%. But surely Loughner got, if not what he wanted, a victory today. Surely whatever bounced around his twisted, anti-feminist, gun-fetishist, sick mind having her out of Congress was at the top of his list of his reasons to go on that shooting. And he got it today.

Last week’s contest was won by Poster Child. It was in Dash Point, just north of Tacoma.

This week’s contest is related to something in the news, good luck! (and no partial credit just for guessing the news item this time, it should be fairly obvious)

Leviticus 11:20
The only winged insects you may eat are locusts, grasshoppers, and crickets. All other winged insects that crawl are too disgusting for you to eat.

Discuss.

I’ll be live blogging the results. Because I’m blogging here at Horse’s Ass, I’ll probably do it as a mocking of the typical media style. So if a result doesn’t have a link, it’s probably just something I made up. Polls close at 7:00 SC time, but since I and most HA readers are on the West Coast, polls close at 4:00. All updates will be in West Coast time. It should be noted that I don’t have a TV box, so this might skew toward Internet results.

Update 4:02: Still no results in, but Gingrich is projected to win from the exit polls. Here are some sites I’ll be looking at. Kos NPR TPM The SC Election Commission.

Update 4:08: Newt Gingrich needed a win with the GOP’s critical jackass community. It looks like the jackasses pulled through. Still no actual results, but at the very least the jackasses who were willing to talk to exit pollsters liked the way he didn’t ever actually answer questions at the debates and the way he hates gay people. In addition to jackasses, douches, douche bags, and assholes have all broken strongly for Gingrich. Can he unite these disparate groups of Republicans going forward? We’ll see in Florida.

Update 4:17: Given how well Newt did right after revelations about an affair were brought to light, I think the other candidates should seriously consider leaving their wives for younger staffers. Does Santorum have time leave his wife before the Florida primary?

Update 4:24: Still no results, but CBS news has actual exit poll results.

Update 4:31: OK, real results, y’all. So far even though TPM is predicting Newt is the winner, Mittens has the most votes so far:

Mitt Romney…..1,857…….38.1%
Newt Gingrich…1,614…….33.1%
Rick Santorum…639………13.1%
Ron Paul………..454……….9.3%

Update 4:34: The SC Election Commission has even fewer numbers in and has Romney at 47%. You guys, either you shouldn’t trust small numbers from just a few precincts that just start to trickle in, or the exit polls are wrong. I have no way of knowing.

Update 4:54: An hour after the polls close, TPM has Newtron in the lead over Will.I.Ard:

Newt Gingrich…….7,149……36.5%
Mitt Romney………6,628……33.8%
Rick Santorum……2,958…….15.1%
Ron Paul…………..2,097……10.7%

Update 4:58: Among white voters, so far the results are:

Newt Gingrich…….7,149……36.5%
Mitt Romney………6,628……33.8%
Rick Santorum……2,958…….15.1%
Ron Paul…………..2,097……10.7%

I guess they haven’t counted Nikki Haley’s vote yet.

Update 5:03: Romney’s making a speech. He doesn’t like Obama.

Update 5:05: I think Romney thinks Gingrich is too much like Obama. He’s apparently made “a frontal assault on free enterprise” whatever the fuck that means.

Update 5:06: I won’t have the rest of the speech since NPR has cut it off.

Update 5:12: From Michael in the comments on Willard’s speech:

Romney’s clearly mistaken “free enterprise” with half the women in DC.

Update 5:18: With 94,442 votes in, Newtle is still up over Mittenz:

Newt Gingrich…….38,589……40.9%
Mitt Romney………25,525……27.0%
Rick Santorum……16,204……17.2%
Ron Paul…………..12,033……12.7%

Update 5:24: Joe Wilson is on NPR. He just said, “the health care takeover will destroy jobs.” You lie! It’s not a health care takeover and it won’t destroy jobs.

Update 5:37: All the news sources I see say Newter has won 17 delegates. I assume that’s all of them. Does anyone know if there are any delegates up for grabs?

Update 5:45: How many of the 2,353 so far votes for Herman Cain are for Cain and how many for Colbert? I’m going out on a limb and saying all of them are for Colbert. Every single one.

Update 5:52: Apparently Santorum is speaking and he’s still in it, but NPR isn’t breaking to it like they did for part of Romney’s. Here’s my guess: “I hate gay people. Boo women. Race baiting.”

Update 6:01: Looks like “Says You!” on KUOW.

Update 6:07: With 355,360 votes in Oven Mitt is still down to Out with the Old In With The Newt:

Newt Gingrich………….144,242……40.6%
Mitt Romney……………93,628…….26.3%
Rick Santorum…………63,475……17.9%
Ron Paul……………….47,712…….13.4%
Herman “Colbert” Cain…3,477……..1.0%

Update 6:13: I think we can all agree if you want to win an early primary it helps to have been an elected official from a neighboring state. So that bodes well for Newt in Florida.

Update 6:19: Does shutting down the government because you have a sad about seating assignments help you win a primary contest 12 years later? Answer: Maybe?!?

Update 6:22: I just found the NPR live feed and they said that Gingrich won 23 of 25 delegates. I assume Romney won the other 2, but I can’t find it anywhere.

Update 6:25: Newt Gingrich isn’t coming out to speak yet. 3 possibilities for why: 1) He knows coverage will stop after he’s done so he’s dragging it out. 2) He was surprised by the size of the victory and is rewriting his speech. 3) He’s having sex with future wife #4.

Update 6:27: OK, Newt is on stage now.

Update 6:32: Elites are trying to make us stop being American. What?

Update 6:34: The other candidates reflect the openness of the American system. Yes, 3 wealthy white Christian men show how anyone can run for president?

Update 6:35: Newt attacks New York and Washington. People chant “USA USA USA.” Um, New York and Washington are part of the USA.

Update 6:38: He’s making a TelePrompTer joke (as he’s reading off his script).

Update 6:39: Saul Alinsky. What?

Update 6:41: Now he’s talking about “anti-religious bigotry” as he defines opposition to Christian supremacy.

Update 6:44: Oh good, we’re back on food stamp president. Without food stamps a lot of the children of the working poor will starve, asshole. And make them janitors isn’t a fucking answer.

Update 6:45: The NPR feed just cut out the speech. Phew, now I can listen to E.J. Dionne and Matt Continetti. Thanks? NPR.

Update 7:04: OK, most of the votes are in, so this is the last update, probably:

Newt Gingrich……..209,218…….40.4%
Mitt Romney……….139,804…….27.0%
Rick Santorum………89,871…….17.4%
Ron Paul…………….69,360……..13.4%

I assume this means Newt has the lead in the delegate count (even assuming you can make up some guess for the Iowa delegate count). Hmm, I was more serious than I thought I’d be and left a lot of jokes on the table. Surprising given how it wasn’t even that close.

Now on to Florida.

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Pap: How Republicans pack the courts.

White House: West Wing Week.

That political whorehouse that is Fox News is Worst Person in the World.

SOPA—PIPA:

• Sam Seder: Our SOPA blackout
• Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Three SOPA Power Players.
• Mark Fiore: SOPA–PIPA
• Thom: Blacked out over SOPA.
• Alyona’s Fireside Chat: SOPA blackout, future model for protest?
• Jon on the SOPA protests.
• About SOPA and PIPA.
• Rockbottomcookie: Stop SOPA.
• Sam Seder: SOPA & PIPA not the first time governments have messed with the web
• Keith and Markos: shocking victory over SOPA
• Alyona: PIPA/SOPA stopped for now.

Congressman Lamar Smith (R-Texas) is Worst Person in the World.

Sam Seder: Arizona pretends Mexicans don’t exist.

Obama: Lunar New Year Message.

Maddow: Why Gov. Mitch Daniels is an embarrassing choice for GOP response to State of The Union .

ONN: Critics slam Obama for just standing there…during photo op.

Olbermann with Nancy Pelosi: Reflections on election 2012.

Stephen does retired justice John Paul Stevens.

Thom with Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

The G.O.P. Primary Asylum:

• Sam Seder: Republican clown car just got roomier.
• SC debate redux:
  
  
• Bill Maher: Rick Perry’s secret PAC ad.
• Thom: 94 hamsters and Rick Perry’s brain.
• The Huntsman girls’ unseen anti-Romney ad.
• Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Huntsman scrubs web site of anti-Romney materials.
• Ed: Wildest day of the GOP campaign leaves Mitt ‘Cayman’ Romney reeling
• Mitt Romney dodges questions
• Mitt Romney is STILL dodging.
• Young Turks: Mr. 15%
• Pap: Public thinks Romney only cares for the wealthy
• Sharpton: Mitt Romney scrambles to hide Cayman Islands ‘loot’ .
• Mitt Romney throws Granny off a cliff.
• Mitt: Maybe.
• Mitt Romney goes to SNL
• Ad: Rich Kids for Romney:
  
  
• A taxing day for Mitt Romney.
• Mitt Romney, for laughs. (via TalkingPointsMemo).
• Alyona’s Tool Time award: Mitt Romney “from the streets”
• Ed and Pap: Is Romney breaking the law with offshore bank accounts?
• Thom: Is Mitt Romney a serial killer?
• Mitt: Bain vs. Detroit
• Ann Telnaes: When $362,000 a year is “not very much”.
• Pro-Gingrich PAC imagines an Obama—Romney debate (via Political Wire).
• Actual Audio: Newt thinks he will win South Carolina.
• Stephen on Newt: He’s a Southern gentleman.
• Red State Update: Newt’s open marriage, Rick Perry drops out, Mitt’s rich….
• Newt Gingrich: Man of many wives.
• Ann Telnaes: GOP wants an open marriage with Mitt.
• Young Turks: Newt’s “Open Marriage” is worst example of family values.
• Jon mocks Newt over “open marriage” accusation.
• Thom: Crazy Alert—Rick Perry’s Tattoo

Sam Seder: A million signatures in Wisconsin.

Young Turks: Obama’s “Al Green” performance is a hit.

Alyona: Citizens United, two years later.

Jon with Fear Factory (via OneGoodMove).

Ann Telnaes: Stephen Colbert’s truthiness.

White House: David Plouffe on the State of the Union: The White House wants to hear from you:

Thom with some Good, Bad and Very, Very Ugly.

Running for President of the United States of South Carolina:

• Jon is adrift in a sea of Colbert SuperPAC money.
• Colbert SuperPAC is definitely not coordinating with Stephen Colbert.
• Colbert SuperPAC: Vote Herman Cain, not Stephen Colbert.
• Stephen Colbert is attacked by Colbert SuperPAC.
• Stephen and Herman rally in South Carolina.

Ed with some Republican Psychotalk

Newt Gingrich sneers his way to Worst Person in the World.

Brave New Foundation: President Eisenhower warned us about Military-Industrial Complex and today’s war profiteers.

Thom: The Occupy Movement is mutating.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.