In the previous installation, President Barack Obama was leading Mitt Romney by 290 to 248 electoral votes on average, with a 77.5% probability of winning. Today there were four new polls released, and Obama slips a little bit:
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
FL | Suffolk | 22-Jan | 24-Jan | 600 | 4.0 | 42.2 | 46.8 | R+4.7 |
NY | Marist | 18-Jan | 19-Jan | 554 | 4.5 | 58 | 35 | O+23 |
NC | Civitas | 09-Jan | 11-Jan | 300 | 4.0 | 39 | 48 | R+9 |
WI | Marquette Law School | 19-Jan | 22-Jan | 701 | 3.8 | 47.9 | 39.9 | O+8.0 |
Obama and Romney alternate wins in the four Florida polls taken since early December. In this one, Romney leads Obama by +4.7%.
In North Carolina, Romney currently leads Obama by +9% (48% to 39%), but Obama lead by +1 in the previous poll and they were tied in the poll before that. Romney is at a slight advantage, although I am a little suspicious of the Civitas polls—they come from a conservative think-tank. But their polling track record isn’t horrible.
In Wisconsin, Obama is up by +8.0% over Romney, 47.9% to 39.9%. In fact, Obama has led in all eight polls taken in Wisconsin since December 2010 (i.e. over a year). Finally, no surprise, New York has Obama up by a solid +23% over Romney.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 71,946 times and Romney wins 28,054 times (including the 1,246 ties). Obama receives (on average) 284 to Romney’s 254 electoral votes. Obama has a 71.9% probability of winning and Romney has a 28.1% probability of winning.
Obama | Romney |
71.9% probability of winning | 28.1% probability of winning |
Mean of 284 electoral votes | Mean of 254 electoral votes |