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Poll analysis: Obama still leads Romney

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It’s been about a week and we finally have a handful of state head-to-head polls to look at:

Start End Sample % % %
St Poll date date size MOE O R Diff
AZ Rocky Mountain 05-Jan 09-Jan 553 4.3 37 43 R+6
FL Tarrance Group 10-Jan 12-Jan 607 4.1 46 45 O+1
NJ Quinnipiac 10-Jan 16-Jan 1460 2.6 48 38 O+10
OH Quinnipiac 09-Jan 16-Jan 1610 2.4 44 42 O+2

In New Jersey, Obama’s +10% over Romney isn’t a big surprise.

There are three more interesting swing states. In Arizona, Romney has a +6% lead over Obama. In Florida, Obama was slightly down in the previous poll and now has the slightest +1% lead. And in Ohio, Obama goes from being -1% in the previous poll to a +2% lead over Romney in the most current poll.

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney by 294 to 244 electoral votes, and with a 78.5% probability of winning an election held now.

With these new polls, the Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama 77,516 wins to Romney’s 22,484 wins (and he gets the 1,386 ties). Obama receives (on average) 290 to Romney’s 248 electoral votes. Obama has a 77.5% probability of winning and Romney has a 22.5% probability of winning.

Obama Romney
77.5% probability of winning 22.5% probability of winning
Mean of 290 electoral votes Mean of 248 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 290 electoral votes with a 1.65% probability
  • 279 electoral votes with a 1.63% probability
  • 295 electoral votes with a 1.60% probability
  • 285 electoral votes with a 1.59% probability
  • 288 electoral votes with a 1.57% probability
  • 287 electoral votes with a 1.56% probability
  • 280 electoral votes with a 1.55% probability
  • 299 electoral votes with a 1.54% probability
  • 275 electoral votes with a 1.54% probability
  • 289 electoral votes with a 1.53% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 77.5%, Romney wins 22.5%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 289.9 (27.6)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 248.1 (27.6)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 289 (237, 346)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 249 (192, 301)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Obama 63
Strong Obama 127 190
Leans Obama 89 89 279
Weak Obama 16 16 16 295
Weak Romney 0 0 0 243
Leans Romney 95 95 243
Strong Romney 84 148
Safe Romney 64

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

0 0 EC # Total % % Obama Romney
4 8 Votes polls Votes Obama Romney % wins % wins
AL 9 1* 754 37.8 62.2 0.0 100.0
AK 3 0* (0) (100)
AZ 11 1 443 46.3 53.7 13.6 86.4
AR 6 1* 1744 40.4 59.6 0.0 100.0
CA 55 1* 900 55.6 44.4 99.0 1.0
CO 9 1* 730 51.1 48.9 65.7 34.3
CT 7 1* 544 51.1 48.9 64.6 35.4
DE 3 0* (100) (0)
DC 3 0* (100) (0)
FL 29 2 1809 49.0 51.0 27.8 72.2
GA 16 1* 582 40.9 59.1 0.1 99.9
HI 4 1* 517 64.8 35.2 100.0 0.0
ID 4 0* (0) (100)
IL 20 1* 846 54.5 45.5 96.5 3.5
IN 11 0* (0) (100)
IA 6 1* 1277 54.1 45.9 97.9 2.1
KS 6 1* 442 45.0 55.0 6.7 93.3
KY 8 1* 528 45.5 54.5 6.8 93.2
LA 8 1* 542 41.1 58.9 0.1 99.9
ME 4 1* 586 56.3 43.7 98.6 1.4
MD 10 0* (100) (0)
MA 11 1* 905 63.3 36.7 100.0 0.0
MI 16 1* 522 47.1 52.9 18.2 81.8
MN 10 1* 456 53.3 46.7 83.6 16.4
MS 6 1* 717 40.0 60.0 0.0 100.0
MO 10 1* 435 48.3 51.7 30.9 69.1
MT 3 1* 1462 44.5 55.5 0.1 99.9
NE 2 1* 658 42.7 57.3 0.2 99.8
NE1 1 1* 269 50.6 49.4 54.1 45.9
NE2 1 1* 204 45.6 54.4 18.6 81.4
NE3 1 1* 185 29.2 70.8 0.0 100.0
NV 6 1* 513 53.4 46.6 86.0 14.0
NH 4 1* 993 48.3 51.7 23.9 76.1
NJ 14 1 1256 55.8 44.2 99.8 0.2
NM 5 1* 455 58.2 41.8 99.3 0.7
NY 29 1* 1006 60.2 39.8 100.0 0.0
NC 15 1 710 50.6 49.4 59.1 40.9
ND 3 1* 480 41.3 58.8 0.3 99.7
OH 18 1 1384 51.2 48.8 73.3 26.7
OK 7 0 (0) (100)
OR 7 1* 464 54.7 45.3 92.4 7.6
PA 20 1* 363 52.3 47.7 73.3 26.7
RI 4 1* 495 59.4 40.6 99.9 0.1
SC 9 1* 1833 51.7 48.3 85.2 14.8
SD 3 1* 454 37.7 62.3 0.0 100.0
TN 11 1* 1139 47.5 52.5 11.8 88.2
TX 38 1 637 46.2 53.8 8.5 91.5
UT 6 1* 688 33.0 67.0 0.0 100.0
VT 3 1* 1085 61.4 38.6 100.0 0.0
VA 13 1* 976 48.9 51.1 30.8 69.2
WA 12 1* 496 54.2 45.8 90.7 9.3
WV 5 1* 811 38.0 62.0 0.0 100.0
WI 10 1* 445 52.8 47.2 79.6 20.4
WY 3 0* (0) (100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 1

    Looks like most electoral maps: The Republican gets the southern and Rocky Mountain states that Republicans always get, and the Democrat gets everything else. As of 2012, the GOP is still a regional party whose twin mainstays are southern racism and cowboy freeloaders living off federal subsidies.

  2. 2

    These polls are already out of date, because Romney got hammered in last night’s debate, and while Gingrich’s angry denial of his ex-wife’s accusation that he demanded an “open” marriage may play well with GOP-voting white males, he probably has lost a substantial percentage of the female vote.

  3. 3

    I finally figured out how to invest for the Obama regime

    PAYX paychex (4.5% div) making a killing on the zero interest rates necessary to hide Owebama’s deficit. People having to live now from paycheck or foodstamps to paycheck or foodstamps.

    EVEP – Energy Partners LP – up 70% because of Obama’s energy negligence

    GLD – Gold – up 100% (see money printing)
    SLV – Silver – Up 300% (See Money printing)

    Going in today to go all in!

  4. 4

    But if we flip just SC (9)& NC (15)we get a bare majority. & if you make it SC & OH (18) President Obama loses. It can happen.

  5. 5

    Remember when Al Gore didn’t win Tennessee and every Republican said if you don’t win your home state you should lose anyway? I don’t know if Mitt considers MA or CA his home state now, but either way, not good for him.

  7. 7

    Funny:


    Gallup’s Editor-in-chief Frank Newport appeared on MSNBC to talk about the polling organization’s national tracking poll of the GOP primary race, which is changing rapidly in the last few days of the campaign for South Carolina. Newport said when their new data comes out at 1 pm eastern, “…we’ll see this gap closing more. Romney was up 23 points over Newt Gingrich. Now it will be down about ten points, so clearly things are collapsing.”

  8. 8

    Republicans, you seem awfully fickle.

    Romney’s National Lead Down to 10 Points

    Mitt Romney is a considerably weaker front-runner among Republican registered voters nationally than he was at the beginning of the week. Romney now leads Newt Gingrich by 30% to 20%, with Rick Santorum and Ron Paul tied at 13%. At the beginning of the week, Romney had a 23-percentage-point lead over Gingrich and Santorum.

    Here we are, 24 hours away from Willard locking the nomination up and Republicans are fretting like a syphilitic virgin.

    The Massachusetts Moderate who believes in the Cayman Islands is YOUR nominee. For crying out loud, suck it up!

  9. 9

    How does Obama loose Michigan according to this map? If it was not for the auto bailout the unemployment rate would be 30%.

  10. 10

    Are you sure you have the Nebraska districts listed correctly? Obama won the 2nd District, which includes Omaha in 2008, not the 1st District, which is Lincoln and a lot of rural area. Hard to imagine Obama is such a favorite in NE-1, not NE-2 that he won previously.

  11. 11

    Are you sure you have the Nebraska districts listed correctly? Obama won the 2nd District, which includes Omaha in 2008, not the 1st District, which is Lincoln and a lot of rural area. Hard to imagine Obama is such a favorite in NE-1, not NE-2 that he won previously.

  12. 12

    Are you sure you have the Nebraska districts listed correctly? Obama won the 2nd District, which includes Omaha in 2008, not the 1st District, which is Lincoln and a lot of rural area. Hard to imagine Obama is such a favorite in NE-1, not NE-2 that he won previously.

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