Poll analysis: Four new polls…Obama still ahead

In the previous installation, President Barack Obama was leading Mitt Romney by 290 to 248 electoral votes on average, with a 77.5% probability of winning. Today there were four new polls released, and Obama slips a little bit:

startendsample%%%
stpolldatedatesizeMOEORdiff
FLSuffolk22-Jan24-Jan6004.042.246.8R+4.7
NYMarist18-Jan19-Jan5544.55835O+23
NCCivitas09-Jan11-Jan3004.03948R+9
WIMarquette Law School19-Jan22-Jan7013.847.939.9O+8.0

Obama and Romney alternate wins in the four Florida polls taken since early December. In this one, Romney leads Obama by +4.7%.

In North Carolina, Romney currently leads Obama by +9% (48% to 39%), but Obama lead by +1 in the previous poll and they were tied in the poll before that. Romney is at a slight advantage, although I am a little suspicious of the Civitas polls—they come from a conservative think-tank. But their polling track record isn’t horrible.

In Wisconsin, Obama is up by +8.0% over Romney, 47.9% to 39.9%. In fact, Obama has led in all eight polls taken in Wisconsin since December 2010 (i.e. over a year). Finally, no surprise, New York has Obama up by a solid +23% over Romney.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 71,946 times and Romney wins 28,054 times (including the 1,246 ties). Obama receives (on average) 284 to Romney’s 254 electoral votes. Obama has a 71.9% probability of winning and Romney has a 28.1% probability of winning.

ObamaRomney
71.9% probability of winning28.1% probability of winning
Mean of 284 electoral votesMean of 254 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConnecticutDelawareFloridaGeorgiaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLousianaMaineMarylandMassachusettesMichiganMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming

Electoral College Map

GeorgiaAlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoDelawareConnecticutFloridaMississippiAlabamaHawaiiIdahoIllinoisIndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaMissouriMontanaNebraskaNevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOklahomaOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaTennesseeTexasUtahVermontVirginiaD.C.WashingtonWest VirginiaWisconsinWyoming


Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

  • 280 electoral votes with a 2.00% probability
  • 273 electoral votes with a 1.77% probability
  • 286 electoral votes with a 1.76% probability
  • 284 electoral votes with a 1.74% probability
  • 290 electoral votes with a 1.73% probability
  • 283 electoral votes with a 1.72% probability
  • 271 electoral votes with a 1.70% probability
  • 275 electoral votes with a 1.63% probability
  • 279 electoral votes with a 1.58% probability
  • 287 electoral votes with a 1.58% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

  • Obama wins 71.9%, Romney wins 28.1%.
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 284.3 (25.9)
  • Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 253.7 (25.9)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 283 (235, 338)
  • Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 255 (200, 303)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

ThresholdSafe+ Strong+ Leans+ Weak
Safe Obama63
Strong Obama137200
Leans Obama7979279
Weak Obama111280
Weak Romney000258
Leans Romney110110258
Strong Romney84148
Safe Romney64

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

00EC#Total%%ObamaRomney
48VotespollsVotesObamaRomney% wins% wins
AL91*754 37.8 62.2 0.0100.0
AK30*(0)(100)
AZ111443 46.3 53.7 13.7 86.3
AR61*1744 40.4 59.6 0.0100.0
CA551*900 55.6 44.4 99.0 1.0
CO91*730 51.1 48.9 66.2 33.8
CT71*544 51.1 48.9 63.4 36.6
DE30*(100)(0)
DC30*(100)(0)
FL2932343 48.6 51.4 16.9 83.1
GA161*582 40.9 59.1 0.1 99.9
HI41*517 64.8 35.2100.0 0.0
ID40*(0)(100)
IL201*846 54.5 45.5 96.8 3.2
IN110*(0)(100)
IA61*1277 54.1 45.9 98.2 1.8
KS61*442 45.0 55.0 6.7 93.3
KY81*528 45.5 54.5 6.7 93.3
LA81*542 41.1 58.9 0.1 99.9
ME41*586 56.3 43.7 98.4 1.6
MD100*(100)(0)
MA111*905 63.3 36.7100.0 0.0
MI161*522 47.1 52.9 17.1 82.9
MN101*456 53.3 46.7 83.6 16.4
MS61*717 40.0 60.0 0.0100.0
MO101*435 48.3 51.7 31.3 68.7
MT31*1462 44.5 55.5 0.2 99.8
NE21*658 42.7 57.3 0.5 99.5
NE111*269 50.6 49.4 54.7 45.3
NE211*204 45.6 54.4 18.3 81.7
NE311*185 29.2 70.8 0.0100.0
NV61*513 53.4 46.6 86.2 13.8
NH41*993 48.3 51.7 24.2 75.8
NJ1411256 55.8 44.2 99.8 0.2
NM51*455 58.2 41.8 99.3 0.7
NY291515 62.3 37.7100.0 0.0
NC152971 49.0 51.0 33.9 66.1
ND31*480 41.3 58.8 0.3 99.7
OH1811384 51.2 48.8 72.8 27.2
OK70(0)(100)
OR71*464 54.7 45.3 92.5 7.5
PA201*363 52.3 47.7 73.6 26.4
RI41*495 59.4 40.6 99.8 0.2
SC91*1833 51.7 48.3 85.3 14.7
SD31*454 37.7 62.3 0.0100.0
TN111*1139 47.5 52.5 11.4 88.6
TX381637 46.2 53.8 8.3 91.7
UT61*688 33.0 67.0 0.0100.0
VT31*1085 61.4 38.6100.0 0.0
VA131*976 48.9 51.1 31.3 68.7
WA121*496 54.2 45.8 90.6 9.4
WV51*811 38.0 62.0 0.0100.0
WI101616 54.5 45.5 94.5 5.5
WY30(0)(100)

* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

Comments

  1. 1

    Politically Incorrect spews:

    I predict that Obama will win in 2012 and that the make-up of the House and Senate will remain about the same. In other words, if you liked the last three years, politically, you’ll be getting more of the same for the next five years.

  2. 2

    rhp6033 spews:

    Of course, Obama has yet to begin his campaign (other than the State of the Union address).

    And, despite what the right-wing nuts like to proclaim, the SOTU has ALWAYS been political – at least through the past 100+ years or so (I haven’t looked back further than that). This year’s SOTU address wasn’t any more political than any of George W. Bush’s addresses, and probably less so.

    What I’d love to see is Obama debating Gingrich, and Gingrich making the mistake of using the term “family values”. That would leave an opening for Obama to turn, look at Gingrich, give an expression of suprise and revulsion, and say “Mr. Gingrich, you are the LAST person in the world to give us a lecture on family values”. Of course, Newt would throw a gasket, and shout that about how unfair it was for the President to mention Newt’s vulnerabilities in that area, and the President could just smile and say “Hey, Newt, YOU were the one to mention Family Values. I thought it meant you WANTED to talk about the subject!”

  3. 3

    rhp6033 spews:

    # 1: Which is just one more reason to get out work for the election of Democrats to Congress.

  4. 4

    Politically Incorrect spews:

    @3,

    Actually, I’d prefer a divided government at this point. That way, they can’t get into quite as much mischief.