HorsesAss.Org

Another Tuesday, another chance to raise a glass and have a laugh over the G.O.P. primary melee.

There have been four Republican primary polls taken in Illinois this year, and they were all taken in March. Here’s what they show:

• Chicago Tribune: 7-mar to 9-mar: Romney 35%, Santorum 31% (+4 Romeny)
• FOX Chicago News 14-mar: Romney 37%, Santorum 31% (+6 Romeny)
• Rasmussen 15-mar: Romney 41%, Santorum 32% (+9 Romeny)
• PPP 14-mar to 18-mar: Romney 41%, Santorum 31% (+15 Romney)

It is possible that the trend of Romney pulling ahead of Santorum is simple polling variability. Or, Santorum might be tanking, big time, from (1) alienating women through his War on Contraception™ and (2) alienating men through his War on Porn™, or both.

War is hell.

Anyway, this is an open thread, so have fun…but, you know, keep it Santorum-approved.

5:40: The polls in Illinois are closed and 15% of the vote is already counted (according to Google after typing “Illinois Primary” into its general search). So far, no signs of Romeny is not getting his ass, um, kicked by Santorum:

• Romney: 54.7%
• Santorum: 27.4%
• Paul: 10.4%
• Gingrich: 6.7%

6:06: As Michael points out in the comment thread…that was quick! The election is called for Romney. Since Illinois does proportional allocation, the interesting question is how badly will Santorum lose. (I was in transit when the election was called, so sorry about the late update.)

6:12: It isn’t impossible for Romney to win the 1,144 delegates before the August G.O.P. convention. It would require a change in momentum for Mitt:

Even after polls close on the last contest, held on June 26 in Romney-friendly Utah, according to an analysis by ABC News the former Massachusetts governor may still be short of 1,144 delegates — the magic number a candidate will need to secure the nomination.

Based on 2008 presidential-primary results, conventional-wisdom expectations, statewide 2010 primary results by county, and polls, a conservative estimate suggests Romney will end this primary season just shy of the 1,144 delegates he’ll need to win.

…or some help from G.O.P. superdelegates:

The Republican Party, however, has its own version of Democratic superdelegates: members of the GOP who will attend the Republican National Convention in Tampa this August as voting delegates, not having been elected or appointed, but included by virtue of their party roles. In nearly every state and territory, the GOP chairman, RNC committeeman, and RNC committeewoman hold this status.

In all, 123 of these superdelegates will attend the Tampa convention — enough to push Romney over the edge if a majority of them support him. Romney already enjoys the backing of 33 of these automatic RNC delegates, included in the 521 delegates ABC News estimates he has won.

Remember during the 2008 Democratic convention how the Republicans criticized the hell out of the Democratic nominating process because of the superdelegates?

Yeah…typical fucking G.O.P. hypocrisy!

6:37: Mmmmm…Mexican pasta! I enjoyed it without reservation….I must hate America.

6:40: According to my sources (namely, Google), just over half the votes are counted:

• Romney: 49.3%
• Santorum: 33.2%
• Paul: 9.1%
• Gingrich: 7.5%

It looks like Santorum is going to lose by double digits. Even so, how pathetic is Gingrich!

[Read more…]

Please join us tonight for another evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. Tonight is the Illinois primary and, in addition to the G.O.P. presidential primary entertainment, there are a number of important primary races that could affect the balance of power in the House.

Seattle DL meets every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our regular starting time is 8:00pm, but feel free to show up earlier to catch the earliest election returns.

I’ll be live blogging the results at horsesass.org.

Can’t make it to Seattle? There is also a meeting tonight of the Tri-Cities chapter.

With 231 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

– Nothing like financial lectures from The Seattle Times.

– What Everyone Should Know About Trayvon Martin

– I missed the earthquake over the weekend.

– Who would want a tour of anything with Dick Morris?

– The let doctors lie bills are among the most awful of the horrible anti-abortion bills.

– National Council on Education for the Ceramic Arts means there will be exhibits throughout the area.

– The question on everyone’s mind.

Look, having 2 first district elections (one for the old seat from certification until the new seat is filled and one for the new) is a bit strange. But people can figure it out. Or as The Seattle Times implies: the dummies who vote will get all confused.

U.S. REP. Jay Inslee already has confounded 1st Congressional District voters by quitting his job, leaving constituents unrepresented in the months ahead. The Bainbridge Island Democrat leaves Congress this week to devote more time to running for governor.

Hey, remember when I said I thought the legacy media types who were always asking for Inslee to talk more about local issues would like that move? Whoops!

1st District residents would vote to fill the seat for December. Voters in the new 1st District would pick the two-year representative.

Bad idea. Too confusing for everyone.

You know how when an initiative that The Seattle Times agrees with passes they’re all about the will of the people will of the people will of the people? Those people will apparently be too confused by one election with Goodspaceguy and some people looking to get their name in the paper and one with the actual candidates. People on Bainbridge will apparently think they get two members of Congress now. Really, who cares?

– creatures that spread terrible diseases by sucking human blood or which eat the food out of poor children’s bellies are villains I’m happy to spend money against.

– One Bus Away is pretty rad.

– The Democrats need to stand for something.

– This Charles M. Blow piece on Trayvon Martin is just heartbreaking.

– This is super tacky.

– And God looked upon the penis, guns, trucks, bishops, and Republicans and said “It is good.”

Last week’s contest was won by Coosboy. It was the roundabout pictured in the opening credits of the British version of The Office in Slough, England.

This week’s contest is a location somewhere in Washington state. Good luck!

1 Timothy 5:11-15
As for younger widows, do not put them on such a list. For when their sensual desires overcome their dedication to Christ, they want to marry. Thus they bring judgment on themselves, because they have broken their first pledge. Besides, they get into the habit of being idle and going about from house to house. And not only do they become idlers, but also busybodies who talk nonsense, saying things they ought not to. So I counsel younger widows to marry, to have children, to manage their homes and to give the enemy no opportunity for slander. Some have in fact already turned away to follow Satan.

Discuss.

Thom: Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Ann Telnaes: John McCain responds to HBO’s Game Change.

Pap with John Nichols: The Wisconsin Uprising.

Comcast Newsmakers interviews Gov. Christine Gregoire.

The Republican War on Women™

• Olbermann with Molly Ball on Republican opposition to the reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act.
• Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Abused wives should stick it out?!
• Ann Telnaes: The G.O.P Crusade against women.
• Young Turks: Romney, “I’ll get rid of Planned Parenthood”.
• Thom: Tell your boss why you are on the pill.
• Jennifer Granholm: GOP must stop their war on women
• Stephen: The plot against Rush.
• Olbermann with Lewis Black on Rush Limbaugh.
• Young Turks: Santorum, “Raped women should accept the gift of a child”
• Mitt: Wrong for women
• Tweety interviews Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) on Republican’s refusing to fight violence against women.
• Sam Seder: Conservatives’ viscious attacks on women
• Jon: The cultural battle for supreme vulgarity.
• Alyona’s Tool Time Award: ‘Papers Please’ birth control policy
• Mitt Romney wants to eliminate Planned Parenthood.
• Jennifer Granholm and Tracy Clark-Flory: Mock bills threatening men’s rights offer comic relief—and perspective.
• Ann Telnaes: PA Governor, “You can close your eyes.”.

Mark Fiore: Koney or Baloney.

Jon on Syrian President Assad.

White House: West Wing Week.

Tom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Thom: Somewhere Grover Norquist is freaking out.

Martin Bashir: On Sarah Palin and vetting.

The G.O.P. Freak Show Continues:

• Stephen on candidate’s speech pattern.
• Martin Short belts out a Romney anthem on David Letterman (via Indecision Forever):
• Ed: The charlatan right wing media battling over presidential nomination
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Inside the 2012 Republican ‘3 ring circus’
• Newsy: Newt ignores calls to drop out.
• Young Turks: Santorum’s War on Porn™.
• The G.O.P. big encounter.
• Pap: Why Republicans hate their candidates.
• Mitt foregos Medicare, but Seniors need it.
• Jon on last Tuesday’s primaries (via Political Wire).
• Sam Seder: Rick Santorum to Puerto Rico: Speak English!
• Young Turks: Romney gets into a fight with FAUX’s Megyn Kelly.
• Ed: The three stooges.
• Stephen: Santorum’s wild Southern night.
• ONN: Romney & Santorum supporters to beat the living shit out of each other for Montana Primary
• Actual Audio:Mitt goes Southern.

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News “Recording Cop” story forgot First Amendment.

Maddow does Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) on climate change “hoax” (via Indecision Forever).

Obama on American Energy.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.

Sam Seder: Dick Cheney fears Canada!

Jennifer Granholm and Ann O’Leary: What you need to know about Obama’s health care reform law.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Santorum and his war on porn.

Young Turks: Racist bumper stickers.

Comcast Newsmakers: State Sen. Ed Murray (D-43) on marriage equality:

Maddow: Ronald Reagan’s 1982 tax hike was the biggest ever in America’s history.

The Daily Show: U.S. cutting off funding for UNESCO.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I lean in favor of staggered closing times after 2:00, but I’m not strong. And a decent argument might turn me the other way. This editorial in The Seattle Times doesn’t make a decent argument. It’s annoying for 2 reasons. First, the argument itself.

RESEARCH suggests that focusing on crime hot spots can result in more efficient use of limited police resources. Bars that close at 2 a.m. are a prime example of predictable trouble zones.

The first sentence contradicts the second. You can’t focus on any particular hot spot if they all happen at the same time. Also, I love how research suggests it. No mention of any particular research and then the most bland statement in the world.

Closing time at bars is a knowable, manageable police concern, if the city is willing to bring its resources to bear at that time. Unfortunately, Seattle city leaders and members of the City Council have asked the state Liquor Control Board to consider allowing localities to extend hours. The goal is an enlivened nightlife and music scene and a desire to end the crunch of people leaving bars and causing street trouble at 2 a.m.

How about no? There is no need for longer drinking, more drinking or any other variation on the theme.

“How abut no” is a hell of an argument. Really, totally 100% made the case. There’s literally no counterargument. Well, except, “how about yes?”

They go on in this vein mostly as an excuse to attack McGinn. Whatever. We’ve all grown so used to that stale nonsense. You can find fresher dinosaur meat than you can find fresh ways for The Seattle Times to say they don’t like McGinn. But then there’s the other thing that pissed me off:

State lawmakers are poised to cut liquor-excise tax sharing. For Seattle, the reduction could be millions of dollars and would eventually ding the police budget.

As Councilmember Tim Burgess, who is open to studying longer hours, puts it: “The council won’t be motivated to extend bar hours, which likely will increase the demand for police services, when funds we use for police services are being withdrawn by the state.”

In other words, the city would be embarking on an experiment to extend bar hours while experiencing a reduction of state support for police. This was not a good idea before any state budget cut. It will be even less compelling afterward.

Then maybe fucking argue for a goddamn state budget that will allow local municipalities to keep that money. There’s an editorial today praising the Senate budget that will cut that money. If it’s a problem oppose the budget. If it’s going to mean there’s a public safety issue oppose the budget. Jesus.

Dear Third Avenue bus traffic during rush hour;

I had my doubts when I first started using you. I mean I never know how many people at my stop are buying drugs and how many are actually catching the bus. But damn, once I get on the bus, it’s so wonderful.

I love the dance the buses do when skipping a stop. When it works (and usually it does) it’s so seamless. I love that it’s not stuck with the cars in traffic. Despite myself, I love seeing cars pulled over for using it. It’s better than the other streets.

Don’t get me wrong, I know we’ve had our problems. When it rains hard the system seems to fall apart. I don’t know if that’s more people riding than normal or if it’s worse driving from bus drivers. I often take the tunnel even though it’s a less convenient stop.

Still when you’re working, you’re the best way to get North or South downtown.

Love,
Carl Ballard

Eli Sanders observes:

Continuing a theme he’s been pounding for a while now, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jay Inslee just released a statement praising the senate Republicans’ turnabout on education funding.

For those who’ve been paying close attention (which may only be political reporters, but that’s not an unimportant constituency when you’re running for governor), Inslee’s statement is an implicit reminder that Republican Rob “Education Candidate” McKenna has been totally silent on his party’s slash-and-reverse education snafu.

Of course McKenna has been totally silent. It’s because he’s a fraud on education. A bullshitter. Someone who is simply embarking on a strategy of claiming he is pro-education because doing so should be beneficial to his campaign. McKenna’s wants to be the “Education Candidate”, the man who would restore Washington’s underfunded and underperforming primary education system and be a champion for higher education in Olympia.

McKenna’s problem is that his strategy is transparent and, ultimately, may not be very convincing. His position on education is largely at odds with the Republican Agenda. First, it requires raising taxes, big time. McKenna cannot implement his promised funding increases for education without raising taxes. Period. And there’s no fucking way McKenna is going to raise taxes. I mean, hell, we can’t even get our Democratic Governor to do that.

No…the increased funding for education thing is total vaporware. McKenna’s “commitment” to education, should he win, will boil down to instituting a series of G.O.P.-inspired “education reforms.” We get strong evidence for this in McKenna’s silence when Republicans slashed education in their ill-fated budget and his lack of comment on the restoration of education cuts in the current proposal.

I mentioned in Tuesday’s open thread that NARAL Pro-Choice Washington’s Chocolate for Choice is tonight. Even though Goldy isn’t one of the guest judges this time, I feel compelled to mention that it’s one of the best events of the year. Obviously, you support an important organization that has done so much to push for legislation for reproductive health in Washington State. In normal times this is important, but as states push more and more abortion — and even contraception — restrictions, it’s more important than ever.

But God knows we’ve all been to awful fundraisers for great organizations. This one isn’t one of them. You don’t sit through a bunch of boring speeches, at a table with people you don’t really know. Local chocolatiers donate chocolate that you can sample, and take home. There aren’t tables that you have to sit at, and while there will be some speechifying, it’s kept to a minimum every year I’ve been.

– Put them on the cover of Fortune and pretend they are role models.

– Dana Loesch, who is valiantly trying (and failing) to carry Breitbart’s torch, has done some digging into Sandra Fluke’s personal life because of course she has.

– Repairs to The Duwamish Trail.

– It will be tough to pivot from I hate Planned Parenthood to I look presidential.

– I’m glad someone in power is pushing back against the we’ve got to bomb Iran narrative. Kudos, Adam Smith.

– But at least none of the GOP presidential contenders have gone after the Girl Scouts yet.

– A clear victory for the concept of hate.

I’m actually somewhat sympathetic to the Seattle Times here. They moved Doonesbury from the comics page to the editorial page this week as it deals with the horrible new Texas abortion law. I think it was a mistake, but at least they’re still running it.

But Erica C. Barnett is right that once you start making decisions like that it opens you up to questioning why it gets made sometimes but not others.

However, despite the fact that today’s top local headline was about an 8-year-old girl who was accidentally shot by a classmate (the mother is being charged with third-degree assault) who brought a gun to school, the Times saw fit to run a comic strip today making light of gun violence (and, incidentally, drunkenness)

Sill, it might be too much to expect consistent standards from The Seattle Times.

We’ve mentioned this contest before. Now there is just one day left in the Freewayblogger slogan contest.

Freewayblogger is looking for slogans about climate change for his next tour. Slogans should be short, smart, fit well into a rectangle, and look good in traffic.

The winner of the best slogan earns $1,000. Second and third places get $500 and $250, respectively. All winning entries get their slogans posted on freeways up and down the west coast.

Scarlet writes:

So far the entries have been well-meaning but a bit toothless – (“Global Warming is not Cool!”, “Respect Mother Earth”, fracking puns, etc.) My theory is that the sort of wry cynicism it takes to make for good sloganeering is the same sort that keeps people from entering contests…

Probably the best so far has been “Climate Change = Primate Change”.

What I’m looking for ideally is the climate change equivalent of a word like “Frankenfood” – that one simple word or phrase that practically forces people to think about things more critically. (Whoever came up with “Frankenfood” is a big hero of mine – man they cost some rich people a bunch of money…)

Send entries to freewayblogger – at – yahoo – dot – com. The deadline is tomorrow…March 15th.