Obama | Romney |
99.6% probability of winning | 0.4% probability of winning |
Mean of 327 electoral votes | Mean of 211 electoral votes |
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 334 to 204 electoral votes in an election held now. Obama would be expected to win the hypothetical election with 100% probability.
Since then eight new polls have been released:
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
CO | Purple Poll | 09-Jul | 13-Jul | 600 | 4.0 | 45 | 44 | O+1 |
FL | Purple Poll | 09-Jul | 13-Jul | 600 | 4.0 | 45 | 48 | R+3 |
FL | Mason Dixon | 09-Jul | 11-Jul | 800 | 3.5 | 46 | 45 | O+1 |
IA | PPP | 12-Jul | 15-Jul | 1131 | 2.9 | 48 | 43 | O+5 |
NH | U NH | 05-Jul | 15-Jul | 470 | 4.3 | 49 | 45 | O+4 |
NY | Siena | 10-Jul | 15-Jul | 758 | 3.6 | 61 | 34 | O+27 |
OH | Purple Poll | 09-Jul | 13-Jul | 600 | 4.0 | 48 | 45 | O+3 |
VA | Purple Poll | 09-Jul | 13-Jul | 600 | 4.0 | 46 | 44 | O+2 |
Colorado offers Obama a +1% edge over Romney, 45% to 44%. The larger trend looks good, but not great, for Obama:
Two Florida polls split. Romney leads Obama by +3% in the Purple Strategies Poll, and Obama leads by +1 in the Mason-Dixon poll. The combined results of the five current polls suggest Obama would win now with a 68.4% probability. But the polling trends don’t favor either candidate. There is simply too much volatility:
Iowa gives Obama a +5% lead over Romney, and the lead in the past two polls. The trend is no comfort to either candidate. Obama has some good polls, they are almost all from one pollster (PPP):
New Hampshire gives Obama a small lead over Romney by +4%, giving Obama a six-consecutive poll streak going back to early April.
Why do pollsters even bother with polling New York where Obama has a double-digit +27% lead over Romney? I guess it’s a near-free-bee while polling other state races. (Still…I’d rather see a new poll in, say, South Carolina.)
Ohio puts Obama over Romney by a tight +3%. That makes three in a row for Obama, going back to early June. The overall trend looks pretty favorable for Obama:
Virginia has Obama up by +2% over Romney, and taking both July polls. On balance, the polling looks slightly better for Obama:
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,646 times and Romney wins 354 times (including the 60 ties). Obama receives (on average) 327 (-7) to Romney’s 211 (+7) electoral votes. For that hypothetical election held now, Obama would have a 99.6% (-0.4%) probability of winning and Romney a 0.4% (+0.4%) probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
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