|99.6% probability of winning||0.4% probability of winning|
|Mean of 327 electoral votes||Mean of 211 electoral votes|
The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 334 to 204 electoral votes in an election held now. Obama would be expected to win the hypothetical election with 100% probability.
Since then eight new polls have been released:
Two Florida polls split. Romney leads Obama by +3% in the Purple Strategies Poll, and Obama leads by +1 in the Mason-Dixon poll. The combined results of the five current polls suggest Obama would win now with a 68.4% probability. But the polling trends don’t favor either candidate. There is simply too much volatility:
Iowa gives Obama a +5% lead over Romney, and the lead in the past two polls. The trend is no comfort to either candidate. Obama has some good polls, they are almost all from one pollster (PPP):
New Hampshire gives Obama a small lead over Romney by +4%, giving Obama a six-consecutive poll streak going back to early April.
Why do pollsters even bother with polling New York where Obama has a double-digit +27% lead over Romney? I guess it’s a near-free-bee while polling other state races. (Still…I’d rather see a new poll in, say, South Carolina.)
Ohio puts Obama over Romney by a tight +3%. That makes three in a row for Obama, going back to early June. The overall trend looks pretty favorable for Obama:
After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,646 times and Romney wins 354 times (including the 60 ties). Obama receives (on average) 327 (-7) to Romney’s 211 (+7) electoral votes. For that hypothetical election held now, Obama would have a 99.6% (-0.4%) probability of winning and Romney a 0.4% (+0.4%) probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 328 electoral votes with a 2.73% probability
- 341 electoral votes with a 2.69% probability
- 342 electoral votes with a 2.31% probability
- 329 electoral votes with a 2.24% probability
- 326 electoral votes with a 2.07% probability
- 327 electoral votes with a 2.04% probability
- 313 electoral votes with a 2.00% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 1.95% probability
- 322 electoral votes with a 1.91% probability
- 335 electoral votes with a 1.89% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 99.6%, Romney wins 0.4%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 326.8 (20.6)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 211.2 (20.6)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 328 (284, 363)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 210 (175, 254)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|8||4||Votes||polls||Votes||Obama||Romney||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.