|100.0% probability of winning||0.0% probability of winning|
|Mean of 334 electoral votes||Mean of 204 electoral votes|
My previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney by 327 to 211 electoral votes, and with a 99.9% probability of winning an election held then.
Since then, eleven new polls covering nine states have been released:
California (+18%) and Maine (+14%) for Obama and North Dakota (+15%) for Romney are strongholds.
Romney goes up by +1 in this week’s Florida poll, but Obama still takes three of the four current polls for the state. Obama would be expected to win Florida right now with a 91% probability.
Obama and Romney split North Carolina this week at one poll apiece. In the past month of NC polls, Romney takes three and Obama takes two. The simulation analysis suggests that Romney would win the state (now) with a 59.5% probability.
Once again, a Pennsylvania poll puts Obama up. Obama has lead in both Pennsylvania polls taken over the past month. In fact, Obama has led in the past 14 consecutive PA polls—all the way back to early February.
Virginia gives Obama a +8% lead over Romney. But Romney lead by a smaller margin in a much bigger current poll. The two polls, taken together, have the race in a dead tie (Obama won 50,112 times, Romney, 49,888 times). It is difficult discern a solid trend. One could argue Obama maintains an advantage, and one can argue that Romney has turned the state around:
So, what would happen if the presidential election was held today?
A Monte Carlo analysis of state head-to-head polls, using the rules of the Electoral College suggests that President Barack Obama would almost certainly beat Mitt Romney.
Now, Obama would receive a mean of 334 (+7) electoral votes to Romney’s 204 (-7). Of the 100,000 simulated elections, Obama won 99,976 times and Romney won 24 times.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:
- 328 electoral votes with a 3.43% probability
- 335 electoral votes with a 3.32% probability
- 341 electoral votes with a 3.27% probability
- 337 electoral votes with a 2.79% probability
- 329 electoral votes with a 2.69% probability
- 342 electoral votes with a 2.63% probability
- 336 electoral votes with a 2.57% probability
- 343 electoral votes with a 2.48% probability
- 323 electoral votes with a 2.46% probability
- 338 electoral votes with a 2.43% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Obama wins 100.0%, Romney wins 0.0%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 333.9 (16.8)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 204.1 (16.8)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 335 (297, 364)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 203 (174, 241)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
|Threshold||Safe||+ Strong||+ Leans||+ Weak|
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
|8||4||Votes||polls||Votes||Obama||Romney||% wins||% wins|
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.