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Fox News Viewers Exit The Stock Market

by Jimmy — Wednesday, 11/7/12, 5:55 pm

Well, not exactly… but since I, nor anyone else, know how to make the connection to the markets and Fox News watching investors, it’s only an amusing assumption.

Box Fizzness:

“Given the opposing views on the speed and degree of fiscal consolidation necessary, the status quo outcome implies difficult negotiations ahead on the fiscal cliff … and the debt ceiling,” analysts at Nomura wrote in a note to clients.

Reading recent Krugman makes you wonder if that loyalty has in fact spread past the republican caucus.

Given the starkness of this difference, you might have expected to see people from both sides of the political divide urging voters to cast their ballots based on the issues. Lately, however, I’ve seen a growing number of Romney supporters making a quite different argument. Vote for Mr. Romney, they say, because if he loses, Republicans will destroy the economy.

I’d come to the conclusion some time ago that watching TV news is not a healthy activity. And as dangerous as irrational exuberance is, I’d add that the dangers of irrational pessimism are equally as bad. But if we were to have a Jonestown style fiscal suicide among conservative investors, the dirty rotten little liberal in me hopes it happens just before a robust Obama economic resurgence. And despite my health advisory, I’ll watch the squealing on Fox News.

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WA-Gov, which won’t go to a recount

by N in Seattle — Wednesday, 11/7/12, 4:55 pm

Early this morning, Darryl presented a brief discussion of yesterday’s results in the gubernatorial race. He introduced a model of its eventual outcome:

  • take the actual county-by-county D-R percentages from November 6
  • apply county-specific 2008 turnout percentages
  • estimate the final outcome between Inslee and McKenna

This may be, as he explains, a conservative model, in that recent elections have demonstrated a generalized increase in Democratic percentages over the days of post-Election Day tabulations. As I explained in a DailyKos diary about the 2010 Murray-Rossi Senate race (posted on the Friday after Election Day:

During the day on Thursday, 22 of the 39 counties added ballots to their totals, counting a total of 207,170 votes in the Senate race. Patty Murray received 113,085 (54.6%) of those votes, with smarmy huckster Dino Rossi pulling down the remaining 94,085 votes, 45.4% of the day’s total.

As she did on Wednesday, Patty increased her percentage of the vote in most of the reporting counties, 16 of the 22. But that doesn’t come close to describing how she dominated the day. You see, the counties in which Murray did worse on Thursday than she had been doing theretofore (Asotin, Clark, Cowlitz, Grant, Lewis, and Pend Oreille) tallied only 27,836 of the day’s ballots. That is, a mere 13.4% of the Thursday votes were from counties where Patty underperformed. Counties where she outperformed her previous level comprised 86.6% of the day’s counted ballots.

Patty even won the day in several red counties. For instance, she took 50.7% of Island County’s 4031 Wednesday ballots, though her overall votes percentage there is 49.7%. Pierce always seems to hover near the break-even point, and Patty’s 50.6% on Wednesday (22,891 ballots) hardly budged her cumulative 49.7% mark. And then there’s Klickitat County, where Murray’s 52.9% (359 of 688 ballots) was shockingly high. It raised her cumulative share of the small county’s overall vote from 41.4% to 42.3%.

For context, Murray won 50.5% statewide on Tuesday night, 53.4% on Wednesday (cumulatively 50.8%), and 54.6% on Thursday (reaching a cumulative 51.3% over the three days). Two nights after the election, her overall share of the vote had increased by almost a full percent.

So Darryl’s model, wherein the D-R percentage doesn’t change over time, is a conservative one.

I too have developed a model for estimating the eventual outcome of the election. It’s rather different from Darryl’s. What I do is to “believe” what the counties report to the Secretary of State. By which I mean that on each night I assume (pretend might be a better word) that the total number of ballots that will be processed by a county equals the sum of their Total Ballots Counted to Date and their Estimated Ballots on Hand to be Processed, as reported on the SoS’s Voter Turnout page. My estimate consists of combining each county’s current D-R percentages with the sum defined above.
[Read more…]

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On the WA Gov race

by Darryl — Wednesday, 11/7/12, 8:05 am

I had to get up way early this morning to take Kathy to SeaTac, and had a few minutes to look at the election results in the gubernatorial race.

As things stood early this morning, Jay Inslee (D) was leading Rob McKenna (R) by 2.6% and a total of 50,209 votes. Of course only a fraction of the vote has been tallied.

To get a quick projection, I used the 2008 turn-out figures for total turnout by county (not turnout by party, just totals for each county). From there, I estimated the remaining votes left to be counted. Then I used the D & R percentages observed in the first ballot night drop to estimate the number of new votes expected for each candidate.

This last step is controversial. After all, we usually observe that later ballots are increasingly D-leaning. But, doing it this way should give us a worse case scenario for Inslee—if past trends hold this election.

What did I find? Inslee still leads at the end of the election, but by only 1.1%, not the healthier 2.6% observed at the end of election day. And, that translates to a 44,000 vote win for Inslee.

So…if the late ballots trend D (typical), Inslee should be in good shape. If they don’t trend at all, Inslee still wins in a squeaker.

However, if they trend R…we might even have to start talking “recount.” And then, may god(s) have mercy on our souls.

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Open Thread 11/7

by Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 11/7/12, 8:02 am

– A pretty damn good night.

– Donald Trump wants a revolution because of the electoral college. Also, maybe he should have waited until the California votes had come in.

– But Bill O’Reilly is worse.

– Rosemary McAuliffe keeps her seat.

– When do I take down my Jay Inslee sign in my window and take the Obama button off my coat?

– Technology is helping kick polio’s ass.

– Don’t block the window seat.

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Election watch open thread

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/6/12, 4:32 pm

Polls are closing in the East, and we have ourselves a horse race!

The Montlake Alehouse has CNN on the TeeVee box, but I’ll sometimes switch to NPR when their election coverage starts.

(Note: Times in PST)

4:47: Via Twitter:

Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato
OHIO: Vast majority of pre-election polls & now election exit poll show Obama up 1-3%. Either all wrong or Obama wins.

4:50: A few minutes ago, Wolf Blitzer called South Carolina for Romney. And when he showed the vote totals, Obama was leading by a 4 to 1 margin. There were only 10,000s or so total votes. Blitzer had some ‘splaining to do!

4:57: Huh…Obama is still up by 57% in SC, with 40,000 or so counted.

5:02: CNN projects a bunch of states and it is Obama 64 EVs to Romney 40 EVs.

5:25: I just put on NPR and heard Matthew Continetti say that we are heading for a national vote/electoral vote split. E.J. Dionne expresses some skepticism….

5:31: I was wrong! Mitt Romney takes Tennessee!

5:43: It’s Romney 82, Obama 64 EV over at CNN. Prepare the capsules, my friends…..

6:02: Well…it would seem Romney did NOT have a good chance of taking Michigan. CNN calls it for Obama.

6:13: Geez…with Michigan out of the picture, Romney has a very tough road to 269!

6:25: Huh. Obama is way up in Colorado. How could that be? I thought Republicans were WAAAAAY ahead in the early voting?!?

6:42: Axelrod’s mustache breathes a sigh of relief! Pennsylvania is called for Barack Obama. Huh…what happened to that momentum the Romney camp had going in Ohio PA (you know, without actually winning a poll)?

6:46: Elizabeth Warren beats Brown in MA! Ted Kennedy can now quit rolling over and over in his grave and be peacefully dead.

6:49: Donnelly is called for Indiana! It’s good for America when Republicans express their true feelings about women’s reproductive health issues…and religion.

6:57: Oh dear, Mitt Romney loses another home state…New Hampshire.

7:00: It isn’t a total loss for Mitt…they just called Utah for him!

7:02: Romney is up +2% in the popular vote. Somehow I think California will have something to say about that!

7:09: McCaskill is called for Missouri. Have I mentioned how good it is for Americans when Republicans express their true feelings about women’s reproductive health issues…and religion?

7:18: Down goes (not) Joe the (not) Plumber!

7:21: Obama gets New Mexico. Not a surprise, really, unless you are living in the 1990s or something.

7:24: They are getting at the crux of the issue in Florida. Whether Obama or Romney wins, why didn’t Romney WALK AWAY with Florida? The answer: Demography. Republicans rule the demographics that are, for the most part, shrinking.

7:51: Minnesota is called for Obama.

7:57: George Allen has conceded defeat in Virginia!

8:01: Obama gets a big batch of love (and electors) from the West coast: CA, WA, and HI

8:04: (via N in Seatle). We can now say that Paul Ryan’s major contribution to this election is that…it took an extra hour to call Wisconsin. And Wisconsin is called for Barack Obama.

8:06: CNN projects that Democrats will keep control of the Senate. This is a remarkable accomplishment. Over the past couple of years, our right wing trolls have spared no mercy pointing out how the math of hanging on to the Senate just doesn’t work. Shows what they know about math!

8:10: Romney gets North Carolina!

8:10: Obama gets Iowa!!!!

8:15: I hear that NBC has called the ELECTION for Obama.

8:16: In the mean time CNN calls Oregon for Obama.

8:18: And CNN now calls the race for Obama!

8:21: Ohio was called for Obama by PBS CNN and it was that that put him over the top.

8:37: It is hard to get too excited about any of the state or King County races, because King County will only do a single ballot drop tonight.

8:44: On the other hand…now that KC has dropped, Inslee has a pretty hefty lead! Unfortunately the SOS web site is constipated, or I would have some details. DelBene 55% Koster 45%.

8:50: Nevada goes to Obama!

8:53: Back to WA: Inslee 51.7% and McKenna 48.3. Don’t get too excited though. There are many more votes to count, and King County was expected to process more ballots for their Tuesday evening drop than usual.

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Poll Analysis: Final Predictions

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/6/12, 2:28 pm


Obama Romney
98.9% probability of winning 1.1% probability of winning
Mean of 311 electoral votes Mean of 227 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Huh. Four years ago at this time, I was frantically entering the eleven new polls that had come out on election day. Today…not so much. We get only one rather inconsequential poll, although because it is Maine, and the Congressional districts are reported, we get three new polls for the price of one.

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
ME Maine PRC 01-Nov 03-Nov 905 3.3 53.3 42.2 O+11.1
ME1 Maine PRC 01-Nov 03-Nov 469 — 56.7 39.0 O+17.7
ME2 Maine PRC 01-Nov 03-Nov 436 — 49.7 45.7 O+4.0

As a consequence, this analysis differs little from yesterday’s analysis.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,946 times and Romney wins 1,054 times (including the 180 ties). Obama received (on average) 311 (+2) to Romney’s 227 (-2) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.9% (+0.1%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.1% (-0.1%) probability of winning.

My prediction: Obama wins. It’s almost certain.

Here’s our look back over the race from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 06 Nov 2011 to 06 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

The interesting thing is the very ragged, multimodal distribution of electoral votes seen in the graph below. The single most likely outcome in this race is an Obama victory with 303 electoral votes. There is a 9.2% probability of that happening.

Then it jumps to 332 electoral votes, with a 6% probability. And then to 318 electoral votes with a 3.8% probability. And so on.

The raggedness of the electoral votes distribution reflects that there are a non-trivial number of important states with large uncertainty. Florida is Romney’s but with only a 63% probability. Iowa is Obama’s but with only an 84% probability. North Carolina is in Romney’s column, but with a 74% probability, and Virginia goes to Obama, but with a 78% probability.

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama (full distribution here):

  • 303 electoral votes with a 9.19% probability
  • 332 electoral votes with a 5.94% probability
  • 318 electoral votes with a 3.80% probability
  • 304 electoral votes with a 3.78% probability
  • 290 electoral votes with a 3.49% probability
  • 319 electoral votes with a 3.30% probability
  • 297 electoral votes with a 2.97% probability
  • 314 electoral votes with a 2.30% probability
  • 312 electoral votes with a 2.23% probability
  • 333 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability

[Read more…]

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Election night edition of Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 11/6/12, 12:39 pm

DLBottleIt’s a party!

Join us tonight for election watching, conversation, and lots and lots of celebration at the 2012 Election Edition of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00pm. But for election night, we’ll start at 5:00 pm.

The Alehouse will have TV coverage of the election (with reasonable audio levels). But bring your own radio and headphones/earbuds if you want to concentrate on results—there will be some celebrating and the normal high background noises of a busy pub. Also, there is free WiFi available for streaming, surfing, blogging, tweeting. Whatever. Ask your server for the password.

I’ll be liveblogging the festivities (perhaps with others), so you can always join the party by diving into the cesspool discussion threads.



Can’t make it to Seattle? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. On Tuesday the Tri-Cities chapter meets, and on Thursday Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.

With 233 chapters of Living Liberally, including fourteen in Washington state, four in Oregon and three more in Idaho, chances are excellent there’s a chapter that meets near you.

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Election Day Open Thread

by Carl Ballard — Tuesday, 11/6/12, 8:00 am

My last post was a bit negative. There will be a results thread at some point, but for now, share your stories of who you voted for and why. Do you like absentee voting or miss going to a polling place?

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Poll Analysis: Penultimate stability

by Darryl — Monday, 11/5/12, 10:37 pm


Obama Romney
98.8% probability of winning 1.2% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes Mean of 229 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Another day, 26 new polls, and we are still at the same place. President Barack Obama is still leading Governor Mitt Romney by 309 to 229 electoral votes (on average).

I’ll have one more update tomorrow, early afternoon—before any election polls close. Here is today’s batch:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 1096 3.0 52 46 O+6
CO Keating 02-Nov 04-Nov 603 4.0 50 46 O+4
CO Lake 31-Oct 04-Nov 400 5.0 45 44 O+1
FL Gravis 04-Nov 05-Nov 1060 3.1 49 49 tie
FL Insider Advantage 04-Nov 04-Nov 437 4.6 47 52 R+5
FL PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 955 3.2 50 49 O+1
FL Mellman 30-Oct 02-Nov 800 3.4 47 45 O+2
IA ARG 02-Nov 04-Nov 600 4.0 48 49 R+1
MI Mitchell 04-Nov 04-Nov 1305 2.7 51 46 O+5
MO SurveyUSA 28-Oct 03-Nov 589 4.1 43.1 49.9 R+6.8
NV PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 750 3.6 51 47 O+4
NH Rasmussen 04-Nov 04-Nov 750 4.0 50 48 O+2
NH New England Collage 03-Nov 04-Nov 687 3.7 50 46 O+4
NH ARG 02-Nov 04-Nov 600 4.0 49 49 tie
NH U NH 01-Nov 04-Nov 789 3.5 51 48 O+3
NC Gravis 04-Nov 04-Nov 1130 2.9 46 50 R+4
NC PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 926 3.2 49 49 tie
OH Gravis Marketing 04-Nov 05-Nov 1316 2.7 49 48 O+1
OH Rasmussen 04-Nov 04-Nov 750 4.0 49 49 tie
OH SurveyUSA 01-Nov 04-Nov 803 3.5 48.8 44.3 O+4.5
OH Ohio Poll 31-Oct 04-Nov 889 3.3 50.0 48.5 O+1.5
PA Gravis Marketing 04-Nov 04-Nov 1060 3.0 49 46 O+3
SD Neilson Brothers 31-Oct 04-Nov 633 4.0 41 53 R+12
VA Rasmussen 04-Nov 04-Nov 750 4.0 48 50 R+2
VA Marist 01-Nov 02-Nov 1165 2.9 48 47 O+1
VA Mellman 30-Oct 02-Nov 800 3.4 48 45 O+3

Colorado gives three new poll leads to Obama. Obama takes 6 of 7 current polls and has a probability of winning the state of 94%.

We get four new Florida polls. One goes to Romney, two to Obama and the last is a tie. Romney has the edge among the 9 current polls, as he is up +0.8%. That translates into a 69% probability of Romney winning the state. Here is the past couple of months of polling:

ObamaRomney05Oct12-05Nov12Florida

Another Iowa puts Romney over Obama, by a slim +1%. Even so, Obama takes six of the eight polls collected over the past week, and it earns him a 90% probability of winning the state now.

In Michigan, Obama polls at +5%. The verdict of the 5 current polls is that Obama will take the state with a 95% probability.

Nevada gives Obama a +4% poll. Combined with the other current poll Obama takes the state 90% of the simulated elections.

A flurry of four New Hampshire polls today mostly gives Obama small leads. There is one tie, however. This brings us to 8 polls taken in the past week for the granite state. Two of them are ties, but Obama leads in the rest by small margins. The analysis gives Obama a 91% probability of winning the state.

Two North Carolina polls go +4% Romney and tie. The third current poll is also a tie. Together Romney has a narrow advantage, and a 72% chance of winning the state.

Four new Ohio polls today. One is a tie, and three give Obama tiny leads. But we now have 12 (count em!) polls collected in the past week. Two are ties, but Obama leads in the remaining 10. The provide evidence that Obama will take the state with a 98% probability.

The only Pennsylvania poll supports Obama over Romney by +3%. We only have 5 current polls and, aside from one tie, Obama leads ’em. He gets a 91% probability out of it.

Three new Virginia polls split 2:1 in favor of Obama. Now with six current polls, Obama takes all but one from today. He holds a +1.4% edge and seems to have a 78% chance of taking the state. This is worth a picture:

ObamaRomney05Oct12-05Nov12Virginia

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,814 times and Romney wins 1,186 times (including the 152 ties). Obama received (on average) 309 to Romney’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.8% (+0.5%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.2% (+0.5%) probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 05 Nov 2011 to 05 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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This Fucking Election is Almost Over

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 11/5/12, 8:17 pm

Good Christ, I’m so glad this election is done tomorrow. I was injured and so I didn’t canvas anywhere, or do much volunteering. I usually feel like I have some control of some down-ballot races by knocking on doors or making phone calls. This time, I’ve given some money, but haven’t been able to feel like I got someone out to the polls or convinced someone by calling them. So it’s just my vote.

Don’t get me wrong, I love writing here. And I think it makes a difference. And I’m glad that y’all have stopped by. But it’s not the same as interacting with people at their door.

Even without that, this election has felt like more of a slog than they often do. Maybe since it started like 10 seconds after Obama took the oath of office. Maybe it’s a fairly negative election. I don’t even have a TV box, so I’ve missed most of the commercials, but the PAC’s and super PAC’s feel like they’re overwhelming the candidates in ways that are even worse than before.

Anyway, all this is to say, I’ll be glad when tomorrow is done. I’ll be gladder if Obama and Inslee win. So please, please, please get those ballots postmarked or dropped off by tomorrow.

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Open Thread 11/5

by Carl Ballard — Monday, 11/5/12, 8:03 am

– You’re going to vote for the liar. Because he shares your moral values.

– I’m both horrified at the GOP disenfranchisement machine and awed that people are pressing ahead in spite of it.

– It’s not all irrational programing at Fox News?

– Bales himself will not make any statements during the Article 32 hearing. The court proceeding in Tacoma is similar to a pretrial hearing in civilian courts. It’s scheduled to last at least one week.

– A West Seattle man accused of attacking a gay man with a bat while shouting homophobic slurs now faces a hate crime charge.

– This is as good an explanation for the trolls as anything.

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Poll Analysis: Interesting polls, no movement

by Darryl — Sunday, 11/4/12, 11:15 pm


Obama Romney
98.3% probability of winning 1.7% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes Mean of 229 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

My analysis yesterday showed President Barack Obama leading Governor Mitt Romney by a mean of 309 to 229 electoral votes. Obama would be expected to win an election now with an 98.9% probability and Romney, 1.1%.

Today I found a pack of 29 polls that cover 17 states. The polls have something to celebrate for the Romney camp—ties in a New Hampshire and a Pennsylvania poll, a small lead in a Michigan poll, and a lead in the only Florida poll. But the Obama camp has some celebrating of their own, including leads in three Ohio polls, leads in three of four Pennsylvania polls and, perhaps most importantly, solidifying his formerly tenuous lead in Virginia with two more leads in VA polls.

Altogether…it’s a wash. The expected electoral votes are split identically. Romney’s probability of winning an election goes up ever so slightly, however.

Here are the polls:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AZ PPP 02-Nov 03-Nov 1080 3.0 46 53 R+7
FL Pulse 29-Oct 29-Oct 1000 3.0 48 50 R+2
IN Rasmussen 01-Nov 01-Nov 600 4.0 43 52 R+9
IA PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 1122 2.9 50 48 O+2
ME Critical Insights 30-Oct 31-Oct 613 4.0 49 42 O+7
MA UMass 31-Oct 03-Nov 800 4.1 57 37 O+20
MA WNEU 26-Oct 01-Nov 525 4.2 58 38 O+20
MI PPP 01-Nov 03-Nov 700 3.7 52 46 O+6
MI Baydoun 02-Nov 02-Nov 1913 2.2 46.2 46.9 R+0.7
MN SurveyUSA 01-Nov 03-Nov 556 4.2 52 41 O+11
MO PPP 02-Nov 03-Nov 835 3.4 45 53 R+8
MT PPP 02-Nov 03-Nov 836 3.4 45 52 R+7
MT Mason-Dixon 29-Oct 31-Oct 625 4.0 43 53 R+10
MT Rasmussen 29-Oct 29-Oct 500 4.5 43 53 R+10
NH PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 1550 2.5 50 48 O+2
NH U NH 31-Oct 02-Nov 502 4.4 48 48 tie
OH Ohio Poll 25-Oct 30-Oct 1182 2.9 48 46 O+2
OH Pulse 29-Oct 29-Oct 1000 3.0 48 46 O+2
OH PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 1000 3.1 52 47 O+5
PA PPP 02-Nov 03-Nov 790 3.5 52 46 O+6
PA Muhlenberg 01-Nov 03-Nov 430 5.0 49 46 O+3
PA Susquehanna 29-Oct 31-Oct 800 3.5 47 47 tie
PA Pulse 30-Oct 30-Oct 1000 3.0 49 46 O+3
UT Mason-Dixon 29-Oct 31-Oct 625 4.0 25 70 R+45
VA Pulse 30-Oct 30-Oct 1000 3.0 49 48 O+1
VA PPP 03-Nov 04-Nov 975 3.1 51 47 O+4
WA PPP 01-Nov 03-Nov 932 3.2 53 46 O+7
WI PPP 02-Nov 03-Nov 1256 2.8 51 48 O+3
WI Pulse 29-Oct 29-Oct 1000 3.0 49 48 O+1

The only Florida poll puts Romney over Obama by +2%. Romney now has four of the five current polls, and an estimated 74% probability of taking the state in an election held tonight.

Iowa has Obama up by +2% in a new poll. This state is looking like a lock for Obama. He has led in seven of the eight current polls. Even if the margins are small, the simulation gives Obama a 97% probability that his overall +3% lead is real.

In Michigan, Obama leads Romney by +6% in one new poll, and Romney leads Obama by +0.7% in the other. And that second poll is a monster, with over 1,900 respondents. Putting the five current polls together, Obama is down to a +2.8% lead and a 90% probability of taking the state now.

A new Minnesota poll has Obama leading by a comfortable +11%, a margin that when combined with two more modest margins in the current polls suggests an almost certain win. I might not have even mentioned this poll, except that, in the previous presidential poll analysis thread, Serial Conservative pointed out a Minnesota poll that had Romney up by +1% in the state! He did add the point: “Not sure whether this meets the qualifications for inclusion in Darryl’s analyses.”

So, I dutifully investigated (were it a weekday, I would have called the pollster). This poll was done for American Future Fund, a 501(c)(4) organization that has a long track record of producing and airing factually challenged anti-Obama ads. That isn’t a good start. But what I found is a record of candidate polls being released. That makes it pretty certain that the MN poll was released selectively.

Why does it matter? Consider this. Suppose some 501(c)(4) hit machine hires Mr. P to do 20 polls over several months in a race between Ms. D and Mr. R. And Mr. P is a scrupulous pollster. As it happens, the first 19 polls showed Ms. D leading by margins of +6 to +11. But, just because of the sampling variability in polling that 20th poll comes in with Ms. D up by only +1%. Mr. P’s client releases the poll to show how competitive the race is—good strategy, bad statistics. Of course, the race isn’t close. The client got one of those one-in-twenty results for a race that is really about Ms. D+8%. Mr. P hasn’t done anything wrong. But the released poll suffers from selectivity bias because the other 19 polls were not also released. Releasing only the Ms. D+1% poll is completely misleading as to the actual state of the race.

So…where were we?

Oh…yes, New Hampshire gives us two new polls. One has Obama up by +2% and the other is a tie. Obama takes the other three current polls by mostly narrow margins. Obama would win the state with an 88% probability in a race this evening.

Another day, another sprinkling of Ohio polls. All three go to Obama by smallish margins. Obama leads in seven of nine current polls, and there is one tie. The evidence is overwhelming, suggesting Obama would win an election now by a 98% probability.

Suddenly there is interest in Pennsylvania! Of the four new polls, Obama leads in three, and one is a tie. The four current polls (all added today) combine to give Obama an 89% probability of winning the election now.

The big surprise is the new set of polls from Virginia. One gives Obama a +1% lead, and the other a +4% edge. This solidifies the slight lead in the state that Obama took yesterday. The three current polls now have Obama’s chances at a 77% probability of taking the state.

Obama just squeaks by in two new Wisconsin polls (+1% and +3%). The collection of six current polls (one tie and five Obama leads) have Obama with a 97% probability of winning the state now.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 98,318 times and Romney wins 1,682 times (including the 144 ties). Obama received (on average) 309 to Romney’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would have a 98.3% (-0.6%) probability of winning and Romney would have a 1.7% (+0.6%) probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 04 Nov 2011 to 04 Nov 2012, and including polls from the preceding seven days (FAQ).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Stepping Forward

by Lee — Sunday, 11/4/12, 9:01 pm

There’s a lot of disillusionment with the state of our political system right now. We have two major parties that are largely beholden to powerful economic interests who’ve figured out how to funnel taxpayer money into their own pockets. We have a massive – and largely privatized – military that kills and maims innocent civilians across the globe with almost no oversight. We have the most people living behind bars (by far) of any country in the world, continuing to grow with an immigration crackdown that has continued largely under the radar. And our electorate is largely tuned out, not even able to muster the ability to demand that the two main candidates for president present a clear vision of how to deal with climate change, something that looms as potentially the most dangerous thing we’ll deal with in our lifetimes.

Yet this year, in this state, we got the chance to take two small steps forward. Voter initiatives are often cynical attempts to con voters into voting against their own economic interests. I-502 was a reminder of why they serve a real purpose. It was a genuine effort – decades in the making – to demand that government stop its foolish and wasteful crusade to keep adults from enjoying a recreational drug that’s been used by humans for thousands of years. This Tuesday, we’ll make it official. Marijuana prohibition’s days are numbered. Change is coming.

And Washington is set to become the first state (hopefully with several others on Tuesday) to end marriage discrimination at the ballot box. If only people who were personally affected by either of these initiatives cared, they wouldn’t have a chance. But more and more people are beginning to recognize the value of standing up for the rights of others, even when they involve rights you don’t ever plan to exercise yourself.

Thanks to all the folks in both the I-502 campaign, the R-74 campaign, and everyone who’s worked over the years to bring reform to where we are today. These seem like small steps compared to some of the challenges we face, but these are big victories that can give us the confidence to know that positive change can happen. And as people who’ve fought for years for gay rights and drug law reform can tell you, it’s a long battle with many setbacks. Tuesday can’t come soon enough.

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Poll Analysis: Three polls in the Washington gubernatorial race

by Darryl — Sunday, 11/4/12, 3:28 pm

In the past several days, three new polls have been released that weigh in on the Washington state gubernatorial race. In all three polls, former Congressman Jay Inslee (D) leads state AG Rob McKenna (R) by narrow margins—always within the margin of error. This post will look at the three polls separately, and then combine them into a joint analysis.

Late last week, the second wave of the Washington Poll was released. The poll surveyed 632 likely voters (MOE 3.9%) using live interviews taken from the 18th to the 31st of October. It found Inslee leading McKenna by 48.7% to 45.6%.

A Monte Carlo analysis consisting of a million simulated elections found that Inslee won 708,884 times to McKenna’s 281,485 wins. In other words, this poll suggests that Inslee would win the election now with a 71.5% probability, and McKenna would win with a 28.4% probability.

Here is the distribution of election outcomes from the analysis:

FinalWAPoll

The other poll released late last week was from Survey USA for KING 5. The poll of 555 likely voters (MOE 4.2%) was taken from the 28th to the 31st of October. It found Inslee leading McKenna by 47% to 46%.

A Monte Carlo analysis of just this poll finds Inslee winning 561,944 times and McKenna winning 425,662 times. The results would suggest that Inslee would win the election now with a 56.9% probability to McKenna’s 43.1% probability:

FinalSUSAPoll

The final poll, released just yesterday, is from PPP. The poll surveyed 932 likely voters (3.2% MOE) from November 1 to 3, and found Inslee leading McKenna by 50% to 48%.

In the Monte Carlo analysis of the PPP poll results, Inslee wins 663,870 times and McKenna wins 327,401 times. This poll, alone, puts Inslee’s chances of winning an election now at 67% to McKenna’s 33% probability:

FinalPPPPoll

We can jointly analyze the three polls together. Our “meta-poll” has a total of 2,119 “voters” of which 2,025 offered a preference for Inslee or McKenna. Inslee took 1035 (48.8%) of these votes, and McKenna took 991 (46.8%) votes. There were 93 (4.4%) undecideds.

The Monte Carlo analysis gives Inslee wins 751,986 times, and McKenna wins 243,119 times, suggesting that, in an election held now, Inslee would win with a 75.6% probability and McKenna would win with a 24.4% probability:

Final3Polls

Finally, lets look at the polling trajectory over the past 6 months:

GenericCongress04Oct12-04Nov12Washington

Inslee took over the lead in late summer, and appears to have held a modest lead through September. Since then, the race has tightened considerably, and we see Inslee with the slightest advantage over the last two months.

This one will be close, but the three most recent polls combine to give Inslee a slight edge.

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Bird’s Eye View Contest

by Lee — Sunday, 11/4/12, 12:00 pm

Last week’s contest was won by milwhcky. It was the park in Arvada, CO where the body of Jessica Ridgeway was found.

This week’s contest is a random location somewhere on earth, good luck!

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