HorsesAss.Org

Last week’s contest was won by Clara. It was Langley, BC.

For this week’s contest, we’ll once again switch over to using Google’s new 45 degree views. This is a random location somewhere on earth, good luck!

Genesis 37:8
“Are you indeed to reign over us? Or are you indeed to rule over us?” So they hated him even more for his dreams and for his words.

Discuss.

The tale of Petraeus’ resignation now involves two jealous women, a threatening note from one to the other and, ultimately, an FBI investigation of intimate relationships and potential security breaches.

The F.B.I. found no security breaches.

But one F.B.I. employee wasn’t convinced:

Eric Cantor, the House majority leader, said Saturday an F.B.I. employee whom his staff described as a whistle-blower told him about Mr. Petraeus’s affair and a possible security breach in late October, which was after the investigation had begun.
[…]

Mr. Cantor talked to the person after being told by Representative Dave Reichert, Republican of Washington, that a whistle-blower wanted to speak to someone in the Congressional leadership about a national security concern. On Oct. 31, his chief of staff, Steve Stombres, called the F.B.I. to tell them about the call.

Here is what I don’t understand. If the whistle-blower wanted to speak to “Congressional leadership,” shouldn’t Reichert have taken this person to Speaker Boehner? Reichert brought this person to Majority Leader Cantor, who is only the leader of the House Republicans, not Congress.

What’s wrong with Reichert? Is the man brain damaged or something?

With the passage of I-502, I’m hoping to get back into some more regular blogging here. I’ve waited a long time for this day, and now that it’s here, I want to closely follow how this all plays out. Here are some of the early developments in this new era:

– You’ve probably already seen the news that King and Pierce Counties have dismissed 220 marijuana possession cases. But at the end of that post from Jonathan Martin was another interesting nugget:

Earlier this week, the chief criminal deputy prosecutor in Spokane County, Jack Driscoll, appeared to take a more conservative position. He told the Spokesman-Review that, even after Dec. 6, the only marijuana which was legal to possess was pot sold in the state-licensed stores called for in I-502. Those stores won’t be created for at least a year.

“The only thing that is legal is selling marijuana through those stores,” Driscoll said. “That will be regulated by the state. You can’t under this initiative have an ounce of marijuana that doesn’t come from a state-issued provider. You still can’t have black-market marijuana.”

Looking forward to the first judge who gets to laugh out loud at that argument.

– One of the most interesting things to watch now is the international reaction to what Colorado and Washington voters have done. Especially in Mexico, where over $1,000,000,000/year pours into the pockets of drug gangs from the illegal marijuana trade.

– NCAA student-athletes in both Washington and Colorado still won’t be able to use marijuana, even if they’re over 21. Last year, Pullman police arrested several Washington State basketball players for pot possession. Considering that underage use is still illegal, that’s likely to keep happening.

– Of course, even with the passage of marijuana legalization, reefer madness isn’t going to just disappear. This gem – from the New York Daily News, but featuring a “chemical dependency professional” at Argosy University in Seattle – is about how this initiative will somehow cause Boeing and Microsoft to suck at building planes and software unless the feds intervene. As someone who worked at both companies in my 20s (quite successfully) while also being a regular marijuana consumer, I’m not sure I even know how to start making fun of that. It’s a good reminder that even though initiatives can fix a broken policy, they can’t fix stupid.

So Rob McKenna hides at home while sending out his campaign manager to let us all know that he’s bowed to the inevitable. Still, I suppose it’s better to confirm that you’re a wimp than to reiterate that you’re an asshole, à la John Koster. Sure, Koster had the cojones to make his own concession speech (though of course he was so thoroughly stomped that it could have been done at least two days earlier). But Koster didn’t have the common courtesy to call WA-01 victor Suzan DelBene beforehand … and then spitefully excoriated the WA GOP and the NRCC for their failure to back his teahadist jihad while conceding. We now see Koster and Kirby Wilbur dissing each other, while nobody takes the blame responsibility for the loss. Stay classy, Republicans!

But I digress. The sharp swing to McKenna prophesied (with zero supporting evidence) by the aforementioned campaign manager, Randy Pepple, didn’t happen on Friday. Oh, on a day when all but six counties updated their counts, he narrowed the percentage of Inslee’s lead by a tenth of a percent. But he fell about 1300 votes farther behind in the absolute margin, from 54,398 back to a deficit of 55,682 votes. Inslee did better in King County on Friday than on Thursday — not much surprise there — but he also ticked up his percentages in Benton, Clark, Kitsap, and Snohomish Counties; there was simply no sign of a turn to McKenna.

At 50.8% to 49.2%, Friday’s cumulative margins in the two remaining races under consideration — Secretary of State and I-1240 — were only slightly smaller than Inslee’s lead over McKenna (51.0% to 49.0%). And both moved in the wrong (IMHO) direction on Friday.

For SoS, Kim Wyman picked up 52.0% of the Friday ballots, thereby adding another tenth of a percent to her overall lead. Although Kathleen Drew did a bit less poorly in Thurston County on Friday, she also did less well in King and the other big counties in which she holds the lead. Since Tuesday, Wyman’s margin has ratcheted upward each and every day, 50.4 to .6 to .7 to .8. There’s no indication of a reversal in that trend, so it’s just a matter of time before Drew concedes. It’s the closest a Democrat has come to serving as Secretary of State since 1960, and it’s the only statewide office won by a Republican this cycle, but it’s still painful.

As good as Thursday had been for the opponents of I-1240, it was just the opposite on Friday. No got 54.4% of Thursday’s ballots while Yes pulled in 53.7% of Friday’s. That reversal was highlighted by the results in King County — it ran 61.7% No on Thursday, for a cumulative tally of 52.6% No … but 55.9% Yes on Friday. That daily outcome took fully 1.1% off of the cumulative percentage of No votes in King County. I have no explanation for these gyrations; the day-to-day differential is well beyond any sort of random fluctuation. Because of such inexplicable variation, I’m less willing to admit that the privatizers charter schools advocates have won. There’s still a ghost of a chance to defeat Bill Gates and Alice Walton, but it’s very unlikely.

Overall, 33 counties counted 269,657 ballots on Friday. That’s fewer than Thursday but more than Wednesday. The SoS estimates that 366,122 remain to be processed, which would take us to 79.7% turnout if correct. However, it isn’t correct. King County, for example, believes it will end up seeing perhaps 50K additional ballots by the time their tally is certified. I anticipate eventually getting closer to 85% statewide turnout than 80%.

According to the SoS’s schedule, additional counts are due to be received today from six counties: King, Kitsap, Kittitas, Pierce, Snohomish, and Whatcom. Mostly Democratic/liberal, mostly large/Puget Sound. Expect a larger Inslee lead and stronger Approve percentage on R-74 (it’s at 52.8% through Friday) in my next update of the ballot counting.

[UPDATE (2:50pm)]

A few minutes ago, I received an email from the Drew campaign. She has conceded defeat in the SoS race. (And of course, she noted that she had first called Ms. Wyman to congratulate her. Kathleen Drew is no John Koster.)

Last night Rob McKenna conceded the race for Washington’s next governor.

McKenna didn’t announce this himself. Rather, it was announced by Randy Pepple, his campaign manager, on a conference call with selected media. McKenna also released a YouTube “sincere appreciation” to his supporters:

About that conference call: once again, the McKenna campaign excluded The Stranger.

Fucking, seriously, McKenna? You’re gonna go all petty and paranoid right down to the bitter end?

Bizarre.

Earlier in the campaign McKenna’s black-listing of The Stranger led other (non-blacklisted) media to question the campaign about the practice. Their reasons: Because Goldy, before he worked for The Stranger, started, as a joke, the “No Reversing our Benefits PAC” (No ROB PAC). Oh…and because Dan Savage donated $500 to Jay Inslee (before the Primary election). Yet, when the Seattle Times decided to become a political action committee promoting McKenna’s gubernatorial bid, they didn’t lose their status as a media outlet with the McKenna Campaign.

This is high-school mentality—it’s the not-quite-emotionally-mature kid running for class president.

In the end, Rob hurt himself. I mean, how could the media take Rob’s “big ideas” all that seriously, when he showed himself to be so small and petty?

Bill Press rejoices.

Greenman: Hurricane Sandy’s double whammy:

Obama thanks his campaign volunteers.

Thom: Corporate personhood lost big on election day.

Mark Fiore: Perpetual campaign.

Thom with The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ugly.

Key & Peele: Luther & Obama’s Victory Speech.

Stephen on Obama’s re-election.

Tweety and Bill Maher: facts and reality.

Stephen does Rachel Maddow.

Young Turks: Election night highlights.

White House: West Wing Week.

Jon does Nate Silver.

Fallon: Romney concession phone call.

Andy Cobb: Voter suppression in Ohio.

Thom: What Karl Rove promised, but couldn’t deliver on.

Stephen: Romney uses Colbert SuperPAC slogan.

Why Nate Silver got drunk.

Lewis Black on Totally Biased.

Maddow: The aftermath.

Jon: McCaskill ‘legitimately raped’ Akin.

Ann Telnaes: Women kick Romney to the curb.

Ed and Pap: Extremist GOP no longer relevant in politics.

Bad Lip Reading: 2012 Debates Highlights.

Young Turks: GOP and the Latino vote.

Jonathan Mann: Karl Rove Goes Nuts:

Jon: Media coverage of marijuana legalization.

SlateTV: The GOP mad rush to embrace immigration reform.

Sam Seder: FAUX News in state of shock on election night.

Maddow: Some things that happened on Tuesday (via Slog).

Jon: Avalanche on Bullshit Mountain!

Ann Telnaes: The G.O.P.s not so happy hour.

Stephen on platonic friends.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

– Is Greg Nickels looking for a position in the administration?

– The kind of people who vote for Obama and for Walker are frustrating. But, fuck Senator Ron Johnson.

– The person who recorded Romney’s 47% remark is an American hero.

– Not a problem.

– I realized that there are two movies about Lincoln based on books. One incredibly well received by a Harvard historian at the top of her craft, and one about vampires. And the book I’ve read is the vampire one (it was fun).

On Thursday, Referendum 74 absolutely kicked ass. Its cumulative support numbers jumped from 52.0% to 52.6%, a real accomplishment when you’ve only added about 300K ballots to the prior count of almost 2.2 million.

How’d they do it? Well, Approve got almost 57% of the vote on Thursday. Only two of the 20 reporting counties did worse on Thursday than on the first two days — tiny Lincoln (542 ballots counted) and Kitsap, where “only” 52% of the day’s ballots voted in the affirmative.

According to my estimation approach, the proportion voting Approve is likely to rise a bit by the time we’re done counting; I have it as 52.8% to Approve, 47.2% bigots Reject. Ladies and gentlemen, R-74 is a winner!

As for the other three races we’re following, there was little overall change observed. In the Governor’s race, however, that stasis masks what might become a problem. Rob McKenna did better than before in 15 of the 20 counties that submitted reports on Thursday. Some of the changes — +2.4% in Clark, Grays Harbor, Skagit, and Whatcom; +3.2 in Snohomish; +3.4% in King; +3.9% in Kitsap; +4.0% in Lincoln — look pretty impressive until you realize that the vote counts in many of the counties were quite small compared to the statewide total. In the end, McKenna pulled in 49.0% of the day’s vote … a lower proportion than he drew on Wednesday. For the day, Inslee’s lead increased by nearly 6000.

Still, it fits in nicely with the scenario advanced by Randy Pepple, the McKenna campaign head, who suggests that late ballots will swing their way starting on Friday and continuing into next week. We’ll see about that, though I must note that the recent history of Republican prognostication is, shall we say, spotty.

Kim Wyman extended her lead a little bit in the Secretary of State race. She’s now ahead of Kathleen Drew by a 1.4% margin, 50.7% to 49.3%. My prediction model suggests that the race could tighten in coming days, though it still shows Wyman ahead by a 50.4% to 49.6% margin.

The vote on I-1240, the Gates/Walton enrichment charter schools initiative, got much tighter on Thursday. The Yes side led 51.1% to 48.9% heading into Thursday, but a strong day for the No forces (they got 54.4% of the day’s votes) dropped the Yes lead to a thin 50.5% to 49.5%. It’s the closest race on my list. My model pegs the final tally at that same 1-point margin, but that can still be reversed if ballots continue to come in as they did on Thursday.

Finally, it looks like the counties have caught up with their backlog of pre-Tuesday ballots. The estimated count of to-be-processed ballots decreased significantly on Thursday, from 744,382 all the way down to 595,614. As the number of arriving ballots continues to decrease, that figure will fall even farther.

Tuesday’s election results in Colorado and Washington were historic. Marijuana prohibition has been dealt a serious blow, and the effects are being felt worldwide. A destructive and misguided global prohibition policy that the U.S. has aggressively used the U.N. to implement for decades is now being seriously challenged by two of its own states.

But how is this going to play out here? A lot of folks believe that the federal government will use whatever power they have at their disposal to prevent Washington from regulating the trade – and threats of action alone will stop the Liquor Control Board dead in its tracks. Others think the federal government doesn’t have the stomach for such a messy fight and will allow limited state control (as they’ve done for medical marijuana in states with regulated dispensaries, like Colorado). And others think this will end up being fought in the courts for years with regulations on hold until judges rule on it.

I don’t really know what the federal response is going to be, but the reality here in Washington is that on December 6, people aren’t going to be worried about getting arrested for buying, possessing, or using pot any more. And in Seattle, the dispensaries (which already operate outside of state law by selling directly to medical marijuana patients) probably won’t mind selling to those people for a few extra bucks. Already, there have been several stories of people going into Seattle’s dispensaries these past few days thinking that they no longer need a medical marijuana authorization to sample the wares.

So what happens then? The regulatory model won’t be implemented until the end of 2013. But no one in Seattle is likely to care that a legal marketplace is taking shape in the meantime. The city attorney was a co-sponsor of I-502. The mayor and the entire 9-member city council all strongly support it and have long felt that marijuana should be sold in regulated dispensaries. The two candidates for King County Sheriff this cycle were fighting over who supported I-502 more. And Jenny Durkan, the U.S. Attorney for Western Washington, has only shown interest in going after folks in the medical marijuana industry who engage in intra-state trafficking or who set up shop too close to schools (which is now regulated by I-502), even though Seattle’s dispensaries have technically been afoul of the state law all along. All the way up the chain, there just isn’t much of an appetite for a fight. The city will just make sure dispensaries are licensed, zoned, paying taxes, following food and safety laws, and checking customer ID’s and all will be well.

But outside of Seattle is probably a different story. The U.S. Attorney for Eastern Washington has been far more aggressive about enforcing federal law. Tacoma and Pierce County law enforcement are notoriously anti-pot and could very easily demand that no dispensaries operate before regulations are written. Other communities around the state rushed to ban collective medical marijuana gardens once the legislature allowed them, even though they technically weren’t allowed to. These same communities might even go as far as calling in the DEA in order to keep state regulated dispensaries from opening.

My best guess at what will happen is that Seattle will become an island of regulated sales for a while, and folks from around the state (and probably beyond) will drive here for their ounce and go back home. At some point, there will be an attempt by the federal drug war apparatus to shut it down, but I don’t see it succeeding. They couldn’t stop the medical marijuana trade, and they won’t be able to stop this either.

In the 2010 election in the 8th district, Dave Reichert was, let’s say, afraid to debate Suzan DelBene. And there was speculation from DelBene’s supporters that it might be because his brain had a booboo, and he was done with thinking. While it wasn’t as acrimonious as the campaigns against Burner, it still had it’s moments.

And now they get to work together! Possibly as soon as Tuesday.

Look, I have no problem when campaigns get down and dirty. I think a lot more ought to be on the table than there usually is. But after the election, one side goes on to their elected position and the other doesn’t. But at least for 2 years — and given where their careers are now, probably a good deal longer — Reichert and DelBene will have to work together in Congress.

And maybe it’ll be fine. I mean I can’t remember any bad blood between Inslee and Hastings spilling into their work in the delegation, even though their 1994 campaign was pretty hard fought. But I’d like to be a fly on the wall next time they have a private conversation.

The blame game is on. Lacking polls to kick around anymore, pundits are looking for the cause(s) of Mitt Romney’s spectacular loss.

For months, we heard that the race was supposed to be a “nail biter.” And toward the end, we heard that Romney “had the momentum.” Things were looking promising for a Romney victory.

In the coming weeks, I’m sure we’ll see many hypotheses and analyses, and proposed turning points where the momentum was lost and Romney’s fate was sealed.

But here’s the fact: Romney lost because he was never ahead in the election. Unlike McCain in 2008, Romney was always losing the 2012 election.

This election was no spectacular loss. It was the ordinary loss of a candidate who was always behind. Period.

It was always in front of our eyes (and I did my best to point it out). The state head-to-head polls never showed Romney with much of chance of winning.

Here is a daily Monte Carlo analysis of the head-to-head polls over the two month leading up to the election (one week “current polls” window):

Romney did have “momentum” in this race. It started before the first presidential debate, following Obama’s post-convention bubble, around the 29th of September. The momentum ended with Romney at his strongest showing around the second presidential debate. Even at his strongest, Romney only had about a 25% chance of winning.

I suppose this was a turning point more than any other. If Obama had blown the second debate, Romney might have maintained his momentum and gone on to win.

But, instead, Obama gained the momentum. From the second debate forward, Obama’s lead grew slowly and steadily, and his chances of winning increased. By the last day of October, Obama hit a 95% probability of winning the election. He still had the momentum.

Hurricane Sandy made no difference whatsoever (as Mitt Romney seems to believe); nor Hurricane Christie. Obama’s win was well secured by that point.

To believe Romney had a chance was to dismiss hundreds of polls as simultaneously skewed. But, like 2008, in this election, aggregation of the state head-to-head polls gave an entirely accurate picture of the election.

At least one right-winger may have let on that he actually does understand why Romney lost:

“We’re outnumbered.”

— Rush Limbaugh, on his radio show.

Wednesday’s tabulations have arrived, spreadsheets have been filled in, and I’ve got quick updates on three of Washington’s statewide races. Here’s the executive summary:

• Governor — not much has changed. Jay remains in the lead, but Rob still has a chance. Maybe even a slightly greater chance than he did after Tuesday’s count.
• Referendum 74 — Approved stretches its lead. I think the marriage-equality supporters have every right to claim victory.
• Secretary of State — Wyman tiptoes a bit farther ahead, but it’s still much too close to call

New ballot counts were reported by 19 counties on Wednesday. The 228,253 newly-recorded votes constituted less than 12% of Tuesday’s count of 1,947,063. My assumption is that Wednesday was mostly finishing up the backlog of ballots processed before the deadline, and that the first late-arriving ballots won’t be tabulated until Thursday’s report. With nearly 750K uncounted ballots on hand, the estimated turnout jumped from 65.7% to 74.8% (it’ll go appreciably higher before we’re finished.

Inslee led McKenna 51.3% to 48.7% on Tuesday night, with a predicted final tally of 51.2% to 48.8%. He didn’t do nearly as well on Wednesday; in fact, McKenna picked up slightly more than half (50.4%) of the day’s count. Inslee’s percentage in King County came to just under 60%, well below Tuesday’s 63%. With the small number of new ballots, though, the cumulative statewide numbers are just about the same as on Tuesday — actually 51.1% to 48.9% (a bit worse than on Tuesday), predicted 51.3% to 48.7% (a bit better than on Tuesday). The seeming contradiction arises from the nonuniform distribution of new votes by county.

Approval of R-74 had 51.8% of the Tuesday vote, to 48.2% Reject. My estimate at that time was a final 51.7% to 48.3% tally. It got better on Wednesday, as 53.4% of the new ballots were for Approve. Approve did better on Wednesday than on Tuesday in 17 of the day’s 19 counties; only Lincoln and Spokane Counties bucked the trend. The Approve rate on Wednesday’s King County ballots (67.6%) was more than two percent higher than Tuesday’s (65.5%). Through Wednesday, Approve’s cumulative percentage was 52.0% and its estimated final result was 52.1%. It’s all but certain that Washington will join Maine and Maryland on the right side of the argument.

Wednesday’s new ballots reaffirmed the tightness of the battle to replace Sam Reed as Secretary of State. After the first day’s count, Republican Kim Wyman led Kathleen Drew by less than one point, 50.4% to 49.6%. At that time, my predicted final tally was identical to the actual percentages. Wyman’s margin among Wednesday’s new ballots (52.7% to 47.3%) was appreciably higher than Tuesday’s, and her Wednesday percentage exceeded Tuesday’s in 13 of the 19 counties. While my estimated outcome didn’t change with the addition of Wednesday’s ballots, Wyman’s actual percentage rose to 50.6% to Drew’s 49.4%. This race remains basically deadlocked. I must say, though, that if Wyman were the Auditor of any county other than Thurston, she would be trailing. Normally reliably Democratic, Thurston favors its Republican favorite daughter 59.0% to 41.0%.

I anticipate a larger number of newly tabulated ballots in Thursday’s count, as many counties start tallying ballots that hadn’t been been sitting in the county offices, waiting for the official poll-closing at 8pm. We will likely have a much clearer picture of the gubernatorial race, and perhaps also of the SoS outcome. And I’ll be here, peering at my spreadsheets and analyzing what’s going on.

[UPDATE] (1:30pm)]

In comment #1, Moderate Man asked why I wasn’t looking at I-1240, the initiative in which Bill Gates and friends are pushing privatizing education charter schools. I had no good answer to the question (see comment #7), so I went back and built a spreadsheet to examine it.

On Tuesday, Yes on I-1240 was leading 51.2% to 48.8%. My estimation method put the “final” tally at 51.4% to 48.6%. In Wednesday’s returns, Yes was ever-so-slightly ahead, garnering 72 votes more than No among the 216,702 recorded votes (to one decimal place, that’s a 50-50 dead heat). At 51.1% to 48.9%, the cumulative result was identical to my interim estimate.

I’ll include I-1240 as this series continues. Even if the bigots opponents of R-74 have conceded, I’ll still report on that race for at least one more day.

Well, not exactly… but since I, nor anyone else, know how to make the connection to the markets and Fox News watching investors, it’s only an amusing assumption.

Box Fizzness:

“Given the opposing views on the speed and degree of fiscal consolidation necessary, the status quo outcome implies difficult negotiations ahead on the fiscal cliff … and the debt ceiling,” analysts at Nomura wrote in a note to clients.

Reading recent Krugman makes you wonder if that loyalty has in fact spread past the republican caucus.

Given the starkness of this difference, you might have expected to see people from both sides of the political divide urging voters to cast their ballots based on the issues. Lately, however, I’ve seen a growing number of Romney supporters making a quite different argument. Vote for Mr. Romney, they say, because if he loses, Republicans will destroy the economy.

I’d come to the conclusion some time ago that watching TV news is not a healthy activity. And as dangerous as irrational exuberance is, I’d add that the dangers of irrational pessimism are equally as bad. But if we were to have a Jonestown style fiscal suicide among conservative investors, the dirty rotten little liberal in me hopes it happens just before a robust Obama economic resurgence. And despite my health advisory, I’ll watch the squealing on Fox News.

Early this morning, Darryl presented a brief discussion of yesterday’s results in the gubernatorial race. He introduced a model of its eventual outcome:

• take the actual county-by-county D-R percentages from November 6
• apply county-specific 2008 turnout percentages
• estimate the final outcome between Inslee and McKenna

This may be, as he explains, a conservative model, in that recent elections have demonstrated a generalized increase in Democratic percentages over the days of post-Election Day tabulations. As I explained in a DailyKos diary about the 2010 Murray-Rossi Senate race (posted on the Friday after Election Day:

During the day on Thursday, 22 of the 39 counties added ballots to their totals, counting a total of 207,170 votes in the Senate race. Patty Murray received 113,085 (54.6%) of those votes, with smarmy huckster Dino Rossi pulling down the remaining 94,085 votes, 45.4% of the day’s total.

As she did on Wednesday, Patty increased her percentage of the vote in most of the reporting counties, 16 of the 22. But that doesn’t come close to describing how she dominated the day. You see, the counties in which Murray did worse on Thursday than she had been doing theretofore (Asotin, Clark, Cowlitz, Grant, Lewis, and Pend Oreille) tallied only 27,836 of the day’s ballots. That is, a mere 13.4% of the Thursday votes were from counties where Patty underperformed. Counties where she outperformed her previous level comprised 86.6% of the day’s counted ballots.

Patty even won the day in several red counties. For instance, she took 50.7% of Island County’s 4031 Wednesday ballots, though her overall votes percentage there is 49.7%. Pierce always seems to hover near the break-even point, and Patty’s 50.6% on Wednesday (22,891 ballots) hardly budged her cumulative 49.7% mark. And then there’s Klickitat County, where Murray’s 52.9% (359 of 688 ballots) was shockingly high. It raised her cumulative share of the small county’s overall vote from 41.4% to 42.3%.

For context, Murray won 50.5% statewide on Tuesday night, 53.4% on Wednesday (cumulatively 50.8%), and 54.6% on Thursday (reaching a cumulative 51.3% over the three days). Two nights after the election, her overall share of the vote had increased by almost a full percent.

So Darryl’s model, wherein the D-R percentage doesn’t change over time, is a conservative one.

I too have developed a model for estimating the eventual outcome of the election. It’s rather different from Darryl’s. What I do is to “believe” what the counties report to the Secretary of State. By which I mean that on each night I assume (pretend might be a better word) that the total number of ballots that will be processed by a county equals the sum of their Total Ballots Counted to Date and their Estimated Ballots on Hand to be Processed, as reported on the SoS’s Voter Turnout page. My estimate consists of combining each county’s current D-R percentages with the sum defined above.
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