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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Larry Wilmore: Debunking FAUX News’ mythical “War on Cops”.

Some kid’s bootleg South Park.

The 2016 Clown Show:

Matthew Filipowicz and Emily Atkin: Teabagger threat to Obamacare in Kentucky.

Mental Floss: 24 facts about musicals.

Larry Wilmore: County jerk’s office and Oath Keepers.

Liberal Viewer: Megyn Kelly wrong on law defending Kim Davis, anti-gay KY County Clerk.

Matt Binder: Jade Helm ends…without a hostile take-over.

Boy Builds Clock…Bigot’s Heads Explode:

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about disease.

Greenman: Lonnie and Koni, Senior glaciologists on climate change.

VSauce: The Zipf mystery.

Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Helobiously Ugly!

U.S. Closed for Business:

Sam Seder and Farron Cousins: It’s 2015 and the Wingdings are STILL talking about BENGHAAAAAZZZZZIIIIIII!!!1!!11!

White House: West Wing Week.

Congressional Hits and Misses of the Week.

Minute Physics: Why it’s impossible to tune a piano.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Initiative 1185 Signature Firm Paid Tim Eyman $308,000

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No Tim Eyman

Tim Eyman is a horse’s ass.

Three years ago I brought to my editors at The Stranger a scoop detailing the undisclosed funding of one Tim Eyman initiative with money raised from another, and they were so concerned about the seriousness of the allegations (I was accusing him of, you know, breaking the law), that they took the somewhat rare step of vetting the piece with the paper’s attorney before publishing. I was never concerned about libeling Eyman because the case I was making was so well documented, but regardless, I joked to the attorney at the time, Eyman would never sue anybody for libel out of fear that legal discovery would expose how much money he was secretly making on kickbacks from his favored signature gathering firm, Citizens Solutions.

Well, three years later, we now know how much: $308,000!

Voters Want More Choices, the Eyman-led political committee behind I-1185, paid Citizen Solutions nearly $623,000 between April and July 2012, according to court records. Overall, the firm earned $1.2 million for its efforts to get I-1185 on the ballot.

In July 2012, Citizen Solution paid $308,000 to Eyman’s [private company] Watchdog for Taxpayers. Eyman told the PDC that he was paid to find new clients for the firm.

That same month Eyman loaned $190,000 to Citizens in Charge which used it to pay for gathering signatures for I-517, according to court records.

Neither the payment nor the loan was reported to the Public Disclosure Commission, according to court documents.

I don’t know that there’s anything inherently illegal about Citizen Solutions paying Eyman $308,000, as long as he declares it on his taxes. It’s his failure to fully disclose I-517’s transactions that led to this investigation.

But given the unusually large gap between what the signature gatherers on the street say they’re being paid and the inflated cost of Eyman’s signature drives, it is fair to speculate that this isn’t the first or only payment that Eyman has received from Citizen Solutions. In fact, I publicly speculated exactly that way back in June, 2006:

I have another theory which, lacking the subpoena power to open up the private books of Eyman and Citizens Solutions I cannot possibly prove, but… I think Tim’s ripping off his patron, Woodenville investment banker Michael Dunmire, who’d already contributed $307,700 to I-917 through the end of May.

[…] Again, I can’t prove it, but I’ve always suspected that Eyman has a financial stake in Citizens Solutions, or receives some kind of monetary “consideration”, and while none of this may be illegal it is certainly dishonest. Something is just not right here, and knowing Timmy, I can’t help but suspect that he’s cooking the books for personal gain. Again.

Nine years later the Attorney General finally used his subpoena power to open up Eyman’s books on I-1185, and he found exactly what I predicted. And considering the inflated costs Eyman has paid over the years for printing and mailing, I wouldn’t be surprised if he earned “monetary considerations” from that too. We’ll never know for sure (unless he sues me for libel), but Eyman’s probably made several million dollars this way from his initiative campaigns over the years.

Ever since he emerged on the scene Eyman has gone to great pains to deny that he earns anything off his initiative campaigns. At first, he just plain lied about it. Then, he concocted this byzantine web of campaign committees and vendors and private corporations to cover up the money trail.

Of course, as long as you disclose it, it’s neither illegal nor unusual to pay oneself to run an initiative campaign. So why does Eyman hide it? I’m guessing because if his backers knew he was skimming 25 percent right off the top, they might have the common sense to cut out the middleman. And that would mean the end of Tim Eyman’s lucrative “volunteer” career.

ooopppeeennn ttthhhrrreeeaaaddd 9-18

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– There are plenty of issues where local control doesn’t make sense, but rent control isn’t one of them, so get on board, the parts of the City Council that aren’t.

– Great job, Ballard Preservation Society

I had the good sense to miss the GOP Presidential debate the other night, but here are some links vaguely related to the GOP Presidential candidates:

– Debunking Five Absurd Comments About Planned Parenthood From the GOP Debate

– The Club For Growth doesn’t like Donald Trump, but I don’t like either of them.

– Maybe not such humble beginnings

– No, Jeb Bush, Your Brother Did Not Keep Us Safe

– Being afraid of the Downfall of Western Civilization means being afraid of equal rights and diplomacy. It’s resulted in an atmosphere that last night culminated in half the candidates refusing to even talk to foreign leaders– their entire approach to foreign policy is to sit on their porch with a shotgun and scream “get off my lawn!” It’s created a fractured party where many of them are more persuaded than ever that “allowing” people to have equal rights will topple our government.

Poll Analysis: Clinton versus Paul

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Clinton
Paul
97.7% probability of winning
2.3% probability of winning
Mean of 329 electoral votes
Mean of 209 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Previous analyses shows that former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) are performing reasonably well (even if losing) against Hillary Clinton in a electoral college election that uses state polling. We might label Bush and Rubio as “top-tier” candidates, except that neither are leading in the G.O.P. primary. Still…they are a threat to Clinton.

Then there is the bottom tier. Certainly, Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) falls into this category based on his abysmal performance against Clinton (0.5% probability of winning to Clinton’s 99.5%).

Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) must also be relegated to the bottom of the Republican primary heap, although in fairness, he is doing much better than Walker. Not really a threat, though.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,668 times and Paul wins 2,332 times (including the 99 ties). Clinton received (on average) 329 to Paul’s 209 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.7% probability of winning and Paul would have a 2.3% probability of winning.

Paul is losing in FL, NC, VA, PA, MI, WI, IA, GA, NM and NV, and he is leading, but isn’t really doing that well in his home state of KY.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

At A Minimum

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It was very interesting to look at these maps [h/t] of how well you can raise a family or a single person on minimum wage. Looking at the second to last map, it’s nice to see that Washington’s wage is enough to let, at least some people in some circumstances, make a living.

That’s obviously the cheapest parts of the state. Even there, the state’s minimum wage isn’t enough to raise a family. So a push for a higher statewide wage seems pretty reasonable.

And here in the most expensive parts of the state it’s even more needed. Hopefully the Seattle and SeaTac minimum wages will have some relief here in King County. But it really should be statewide.

openthreadseptember162015

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– Back to school, Seattle.

– I’m not a big comic books person, but seriously, DC, get your shit together.

– Ahead of public hearing, a couple ways to make the 520 Bridge plans better

– “A future in which eating out no longer involves waiters?” That’s not dining. That’s eating.

– I had heard of many of these 7 amazing places in Seattle you’ve probably never heard of but will have to check a few out (h/t to Central Cinema’s Facebook page).

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally meets this evening. Please join us in conversations about politics from local to international. New ideas and insights are welcomed!

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. Our starting time is 8:00 pm, but some folks stop by even earlier for dinner.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Vancouver, WA, and Shelton chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets. And next Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 184 chapters of Living Liberally, including seventeen in Washington state, four in Oregon and two in Idaho. Chances are good there’s a chapter meeting near you.

Open Thread 09/14/00000002015

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– Get your shit together, SPD.

– And second, we have this category of “our Christian values” that appears to be, on closer inspection, devoid of content and substance. It’s an ornate treasure chest with nothing inside.

– So let’s look at how our congresswoman and her fellow members of Congress got here today. Both houses of Congress overwhelmingly passed the Corker-Cardin bill, a.k.a. the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015, (Cathy McMorris Rodgers voted yes) which the president signed into law, that required Congress to come up with a veto-proof majority in order to scuttle the agreement with Iran. So basically they tied their own hands. It wasn’t easy, but they did it.

– It’s Pope Francis Who Should Apologize on Abortion

– The plutocrats and the social conservatives will probably be fine together.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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White House: Govt. shutdown ultimatum.

Mental Floss: 33 unusual old remedies.

Louder Crowder: Rouge guns.

Stephen Is Back:

Scientists discover a new species of extinct humans.

Greenman: Palin on her dream job with Trump.

John Oliver on back to school.

Thom: Planned Parenthood and government shutdown.

The 2016 Clown Show:

Thom: Big Business deploys a new weapon against workers.

Pelosi slams fed court ruling on GOP’s latest ObamaCare lawsuit.

Grace Para: Labor Day

9/11

Farron Cousins: Environmentalists get tough on climate deniers.

The history of the Wingdings font.

David Pakman: Sarah Palin tells immigrants to “seek American”.

Mental Floss: Where did we get the name America?

Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb-Bomb Iran:

Uber drivers: Are they screwed?

Mark Fiore: Tragic Numbers.

Matthew Filipowicz: Police group claims protests against police violence causes more violence :

Thom: Clinton wants to overturn Citizen’s United.

Congressional hits and misses of the week.

Maddow: Obama’s big finish.

Farron Cousins: Teabaggers push Mitch McConnell into fights he cannot win

Reformed Whores: Back To School For Sarah Palin.

White House: West Wing Week.

Kim Davis is a Bigot:

Matthew Filipowicz: What happens when scientists re-test denier’s science.

Thom: Are Republicans committing environmental treason?

Mental Floss: Misconceptions about money.

Daily Inspiration with Dick Cheney.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

It’s Such a Nice Day But Jason Rantz Is Still The Worst

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OK, I get it. Jason Rantz is just going to bug me. For, like, ever. Fine. I’m still going to read his nonsense, so I can write posts like this on one of the last nice days we’ll have for a while. We’re all welcome?

Well, this is just excessive.

Did Joni Baler get a job with My Northwest? One sentence paragraphs are fine sometimes, but there’s no need for this one or the one in a little bit. In any event, we can all agree that the best opening paragraphs should leave you not having any idea what the subject of the story is going to be. So, um, good job. Also, I think this would be better if it ended with a colon.

When I first saw that the City of Seattle was going to temporarily take over a portion of a neighborhood, transforming the area into a park and recreation space, I knew it was made for vilifying by the Department of Transportation’s critics (me being one of them). But given it’s temporary, it seemed like a fun idea. Space for biking, live music, buskers, skateboarding, and even Zumba classes sounds like a fun afternoon if the weather allows for it.

Great. Sounds like fun. Let’s all go and have a hot dog or something.

But then I saw the details.

You can write longer paragraphs. Also, I think this would be better if it ended with a colon.

The city will close 46 blocks in the Central District on Saturday between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. Only limited local traffic will be allowed through.

It’s a Saturday, so light traffic. And it’ll be fine. You know I bet the Sounders and Mariners games that day will be worse for traffic, but I doubt we’ll have a nonsense piece about that.

I understand the desire to get people in the community to come out and enjoy the space, especially if we have another beautiful day, but 46 blocks is exceptionally excessive, especially because the city will hardly provide enough activities to cover the entire space in a meaningful way. And it’s hard to get to know your neighbors and the community within 46 blocks.

I haven’t looked at a map, but the square root of 46 is between 6 and 7. So between 6 and 7 blocks each way is worth a rant. Or it could be long and thin. How about you let people know so they can drive around if necessary? But for the rest of us, that sounds like fun. Maybe I’ll walk there or take a bus.

The real reason they’re occupying so much space is to push bicycling; they’ll even be raffling off 10 free bikes at Garfield Playground, in partnership with a great local company, Bike Works. We’re about to lose out on the great Seattle weather, which is when it’s most undesirable to bike around the city (turns out, it’s onerous and can be dangerous to ride bikes up and down hills in the rain). So they’re making one last, desperate attempt to push bicycling before the weather turns.

Is it really so horrible that they’re giving away bikes on a nice day? This is pretty weak sauce. This paragraph is also all over the place: Bike Works is great but the city is ruining stuff by working with them. The weather is great, but it might not be for ever.

Anyway as someone who has taken plenty of rainy Seattle bike rides, they aren’t the best case, but it’s mostly fine. Usually Seattle is more misty than rainy. Get some lights and reflective clothing, and be careful. Anyway, nobody says it has to be your only form of transportation. All the forms of transportation get worse when it’s raining.

Ultimately, the concept of closing down communities for these types of events is a good one; but this is way too big and poorly thought out. If they’re expecting people from out of the neighborhood to come by (and I’m assuming they are, unless the City is now in the business of catering only to the select neighborhoods in the area they actually care about), one has to wonder where they’ll park, given they just close 46 blocks-worth of space for cars. Oh, they expect you to hop on a bus (or bike) with your young kids and spouse.

The end??? The possibility that people going to the Central District might take the bus with their spouse or kids is that strange? I don’t even understand why that’s a complaint. People literally paid him money to write that it would be odd for people to take a bus with their kids. I don’t have kids, but there are plenty on pretty much any bus when it isn’t rush hour. Has he never taken a bus home after a ballgame? Fucking try taking your kids on the bus before being an asshole.

I’m also betting there will be parking in the CD on a Saturday since there are plenty of lots. Fine, you know what, you win: I looked at the map. You’ll be fine. Now I’m going to enjoy what’s left of a nice evening.

Open Thread September 11, 2015 AD

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– No charges in the Pasco shooting, but at least there will be a state review.

– You can’t judge a person by their parents, and 1927 was a long time ago. But geez, Donald Trump’s father the Klan member who fought with the police seems like a problem.

– I still, still support Seattle teachers.

– And the Menzies Aviation workers. I couldn’t find many articles about it, but you can follow the latest at #SeaTacOnStrike

– Serena Williams on top of being the best at tennis is the best, just in general.

Vance

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You knew the GOP would run someone against Patty Murray, and there’s worse they could do than Chris Vance. I’m not sure that I’d go so far as to call him a sacrificial lamb, but it’s tough to see his path to victory. As Andrew mentions in the linked post, he has lost for Federal and statewide offices.

If Patty Murray could hang on 6 years ago, the seat is probably safe in a presidential year with Trump or another Bush at the helm. But I try not to forecast these things, so who knows?

Also, color me unimpressed with debt as a central campaign issue. (a) It’s not really as big a deal as political insiders make it out to be. (b) Deficits have gone down every year under Obama. Deficit and debt aren’t the same, but those lower deficits and surpluses will lead to debt being even less of an issue politically and policy-wise. (c) Much of our debt is due to wars and tax cuts happening concurrently under politicians Vance supported. (d) Much of the rest of the debt is due to the economic collapse brought on or exacerbated by GOP policies. So it’s tough to see how an anti-debt platform translates into votes.

Open Thread! 9/9

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– Does anyone buy the Cheneys’ books?

– I still support Seattle teachers.

– Being pro-a-war-that-won’t-happen probably isn’t a terrible political position: You don’t get the down side of actually having to deal with the consequences of a war, and if something does go bad (I don’t think it will) you get to I told you so everyone. But wanting to go to war with Iran kind of makes the people advocating for it seem like the worst.

– Move Seattle seems pretty good.

– Lord, send me a sign

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