1 Corinthians 7:9
It is better to marry than to burn.
Discuss.
by Goldy — ,
by Darryl — ,
No cure for lobbying addiction.
Thom: The Good, the Bad & the Very Very Reboanticly Ugly!
Sen. Rubio (R-FL) Zika virus no excuse to get an abortion
Thom: Where are the Koch brothers?
White House: West Wing Week.
David Hawkings’ Whiteboard:Is August recess work or play?
Most hated candidates ever.
This Week’s Drumpf Blooper Reel:
Mark Fiore: Who’s on whose side?
Bill Maher: Future headlines.
Steve Kornacki: Hillary Clinton outreach to GOP makes left uneasy .
New Scientist: The brain’s waste removal system.
FAUX Fallout:
Mental Floss: Why are there 24 hours in a day?
Did Clinton lie about her emails?
Red State Update: Will Trump debate Clinton? Julian Assange & murdered DNC staffer!
BrideGate Lies:
Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Carl Ballard — ,
There has been a long time where people would say about Trump, that you might not like his positions, but at least he tells it like it is. Of course that was always bullshit, Mexico isn’t sending rapists, and we can’t build a wall with their money just because. At the time, he was several years into his investigation of Obama’s birth certificate. So no. He never told it like it is. But now that he’s saying that he sees planes full of Iranian bribes that don’t exist, and that Obama founded Islamic State, can we please stop saying that? Thanks!
by Darryl — ,
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The previous analysis showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by an average of 309 to 229 electoral votes, giving Clinton a 97% probability of winning an election held then.
There have been 33 new polls released since then, many of them from electorally “interesting” states. So now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,315 times and Trump wins 685 times (including the 169 ties). Clinton received (on average) 325 to Trump’s 213 electoral votes. In an election held now, we would expect Clinton to win with a 99.3% probability and Trump with a 0.7% probability.
A number of states are worth examining in more detail.
Florida has a couple of new polls and three polls that “aged out” from the last analysis. One poll has the candidates tied up, and the other has Clinton up +4.4. The net result is that Clinton’s probability of winning has gone from 37% to 67%. This is still very nearly a tie, but the state moves from light red to light blue.
The raw polling results paint a picture of a state that “swings.”
by Carl Ballard — ,
I’m going on vacation pretty soon. I plan to keep up the contingent of nonsense Open Threads, and then hopefully when I get back, to start posting more.
Anyway, do you have any recommendations for light summer reading? Beach read or airplane. I have this on hold from the library, but I’m not sure it’s going to arrive in time.
by Darryl — ,
Please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.
We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening over the next week. Tonight, the Federal Way, Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Finally, on Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.
There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.
by Carl Ballard — ,
Not sure why, but this this thread seems to have been eaten. Here we go again: I enjoyed Seafair, but would prefer it not have the Blue Angels. I also took a tour of one of the Navy ships. It was interesting, but I’d prefer to live in a world where we didn’t have any.
by Goldy — ,
by Darryl — ,
Jimmy Dore: WA-7-CD progressive candidate Pramila Jayapal gets Bernie’s blessing.
Thom: Most disturbing climate change events we have seen yet.
The Devil and Stephen Colbert:
Jimmy Dore: The story (and meta-story) behind the Iran cash drop story.
The Drumpf Implosion:
Hillary gets psyched for the Olympics.
Jimmy Dore: Bill-O-the-Clown on the silver lining in slavery.
Stephen: Cartoon Hillary on her disappearance.
Thom: The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Seriously Ugly!
MinutePhysics: How long is a sun day?
Jimmy Dore: Political jokes of the week.
Roy Zimmerman: “Burn, Goody Clinton”:
Young Turks: Kansas proves Republican policies don’t work.
G.O.P. Voter Suppression Laws Get Stuck Down:
Thom: Is Congress stalking Greenpeace with Subpoenas?
Can a third-party candidate ever become President?
Jimmy Kimmel interviews Morgan Freeman narrating a Hillary Clinton campaign video.
Slate: Corey Lewandowski is a complete disaster on CNN.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Carl Ballard — ,
I like Bob Ferguson and his work against Comcast being assholes. But I’m not sure Batman is the best analogy. Bruce Wayne really should be using his money on other things if he wants the best return on investment. Ferguson is pretty much doing best for the customers. I’d rather read about Batman (no offense, Bob) but live in a state with Ferguson as AG (no offense Bruce).
by Darryl — ,
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There have been eight new polls released since last week’s analysis, including PA, VA, NV, a pair in GA and a pair in AZ. The previous analysis had Hillary Clinton with a 97.8% probability of winning and election then. Donald Trump had a 2.2% of winning.
This week, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,010 times and Trump wins 2,990 times (including the 459 ties). Clinton received (on average) 309 to Trump’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.0% probability of winning and Trump would have a 3.0% probability of winning.
There aren’t many changes with only eight polls in six states, but a few are worth noting.
In Arizona, three polls have aged out and there are two new polls, one with Clinton up +2 and the other with Trump up +7.5. The net is a small bump for Trump. This is similar in Georgia, where two new polls (Trump +0.2 and Trump +3) join an existing poll (Trump + 2) to boast Trump’s chances in the state.
We have one new poll in Nevada (Clinton +1) that, combined with two existing polls (Trump +5 and Clinton +4), bumps Clinton’s chances. Trump went from 68% probability down to a 59% probability. Essentially, Nevada is a tie.
Finally, Virgina has one new poll (Trump +4) with three existing polls (Clinton +5, Clinton +7, Trump +0.4). Clinton’s probability has dropped slightly from 94% to 82%.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
by Carl Ballard — ,
Were the primary election results everything you hoped for? I’m glad in the 7th, we’ll get 2 fairly liberal Democratic candidates. We’ll wait to see what two. I was hoping for a better turnout for Angie Marx, but maybe it was inevitable when a legislator stepped in. In any event, more results will come in over then next few weeks.
by Darryl — ,
It’s election night in Washington state. So fill out your ballot, drop it off in the nearest ballot box, and then join us for an evening of electoral erudition and political pontification at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.
We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Long Beach, and West Seattle chapters also meet. The Lakewood and Bellingham chapters meet on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Tacoma chapter meets.
There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including nineteen in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.
by Carl Ballard — ,
by Goldy — ,