It’s not the biggest thing in the world, but yes, paving projects should also complete streets. It’s a time to do it, and holy catfish, Roosevelt looks nice.
Drinking Liberally — Seattle (and Wednesday debate watching party)
The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for an evening of conversation and political debate over drinks. We start at 8:00pm.
And then come back on Wednesday night for another episode of Crazy Guy pretends to be a Presidential Candidate. That’s right, we’ll be getting together to watch the third Presidential Debate. It starts at 6:00pm.
We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern.
For Wednesday’s debate, please note that the audio of the debate may not be perfect. We expect that almost every TV in the joint will be on the debate, but there will be cheers and jeers and all the other sounds of a working pub. If you really must hear every word, consider bringing a radio and headphones.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other Living Liberally meetings happening over the next week. There are 185 chapters, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.
Poll Analysis: Small changes
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The previous analysis from 4 days ago showed Sec. Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump, with a >99.9% probability of winning an election last week. Clinton’s mean electoral vote total was 335 and Trump’s was 203.
With a pile of new polls released since then, things haven’t changed a whole lot. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins all 100,000 times. Clinton received (on average) 338 (+3) to Trump’s 200 (-3) electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would still have a > 99.9% probability of beating Trump.
There are a few things to highlight for this analysis.
Two new polls have come in from Arizona, and Clinton leads each. The oldest poll is a tie, and the newest three have Clinton at +2%, +1%, and +2%. This slight lead has slightly raised Clinton’s probability of taking the state from 60.8% to 65.8%. This is barely better than a tie, but the fact that a Democrat is leading in Arizona is nothing short of remarkable.
In Colorado, two polls with Trump up age out, and one new poll is added. The four current polls have Clinton up +11%, +11%, +0% (tie), and +8%. Consequently, Clinton’s chances have gone from 81.8% to 98.9% of winning the state today.
We have nine current polls in Florida, and eight of the polls have Clinton up. The one new poll has her up +4%. Overall, Clinton’s chances go from 91.8% to 94.2% in Florida.
We see a slight shift in Georgia, where Trump’s chances have dropped from 98.7% to 93.2%. This is entirely an artifact of 6 old polls dropping out and a new one coming in. The new poll has Trump up by +5.5%.
Minnesota has shifted in Trump’s favor, on account of a new Gravis poll that has the state tied. The other two current polls have Clintion up by +6.9% and 6%. The Gravis poll looks like an outlier.
Two new Nevada polls join five other polls. Clinton has small leads in five of the seven polls, and the other two are ties. Clinton’s chances rise from 76.6% to 82.9% in the state.
In North Carolina, one poll ages out and three new polls weigh in. Clinton leads in all nine current polls, typically with small leads. Her chances have gone up from a 86% to a 92.3% probability.
A new South Carolina poll has Trump leading by +15.4%, raising his chances to 100% from 76%.
Utah has had some interesting polling, including a tie last week. Today, a Rasmussen poll with Trump up +2% joined a third poll with Trump at +6% to raise his chances of winning from 76.9% to 81.4%.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 17 Oct 2015 to 17 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
0p3n Thr3@d
Did anyone else catch the Senate debate? The format was not particularly healthy. It didn’t allow for much of a back and forth. It didn’t even have them answering the same question.
I learned that Chris Vance wants to lower our national debt by lowering tax rates (and closing loopholes). I’m pretty sure that won’t work. Also, he’d raise the retirement age for Social Security. Patty Murray wants to raise the cap so wealthy people pay more into the Social Security Trust Fund and won’t support increasing the retirement age.
HA Bible Study: Hosea 10:13
Hosea 10:13
Ye have plowed wickedness, ye have reaped iniquity; ye have eaten the fruit of lies: because thou didst trust in thy way, in the multitude of thy mighty men.
Discuss.
Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!
Seth Meyers: Joe and Jill Biden.
White House Watch: The sniff test.
Minute Physics: Where does complexity come from?
The GOP Sexual Predator Show:
- Why we need A Business Man
- Kimmel: Coked-up Drumpf on WikiLeaks
- Slate: Trump’s solution to Islamophobia isn’t one
- WA Republicans react.
- Vote Drumpf on November 28th.
- Donald reacts to being dis-invited from Wisconsin rally.
- Michelle Obama Trump tape has “shaken me to my core”:
- Seth Meyers: VP Biden on the Drumpf tape.
- Jimmy Dore: Why now?
- Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf–Little boy.
- Olbermann: How would Drumpf deport 11 million people? Think about it.
- Daily Show Fingers the pulse of the Drumpf supporters.
- Sam Seder: Drumpf’s IRONCLAD ASSAULT DEFENSE, “Look at her…I Don’t think so.”
- Young Turks: Story of how Donald Drumpf stiffed 9/11 survivors!
- Songify: Clinton—Drumpf face-off
- Samantha Bee: Pussy Riot!
- Samantha Bee: GOP fear the P
- PsychoSuperMom: Hypocrisy Thy Name Is GOP
- Tic Tac responds to Drumpf.
- Republicans in Congress speak sut against Drumpf
- Seth Meyers: A closer look at the allegations against Drumpf.
- Mark Fiore: President of the locker room.
- Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf on Clinton’s brother.
- Thom: White men don’t want Drumpf to go after White women
- Daily Show: Drumpf Gyms
- Olbermann: Jailing Hillary!? Drumpf’s outrageous case for dictatorship.
- Young Turks: Ben Carson, “Drumpf sexual assaults don’t matter”
- Red State Update: Paul Ryan won’t defend Drumpf
- Kimmel: Coked-up Drumpf on Hillary on stage.
- Samantha Bee: I thought we were done with this!
- Jimmy Dore: Drumpf intruding on naked teen contestants
- Huh…Apparently Drumpf does do business in Russia.
- Randy Rainbow: “Grab ’em By the P***Y”
- Newzoids: Drumpf is Meatloaf “Pratt out of Hell”:
- Keith Olbermann: Looks like Donald Drumpf is peddling Russian propaganda.
- Trevor: Fallout from Drumpf’s PussyGate
- Bill Maher explains why Drumpf is popular
- Fusion Comedy staff watch the Drumpf–Billy Bush conversation.
- Young Turks: Jr. says women who don’t like sexual harassment don’t belong in work force.
- Slate: No end in sight for sexual assault accusations against Drumpf.
- Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at the Drumpf free-fall.
- Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf on women
- Olbermann: We’re witnessing Donald Drumpf’s meltdown here, folks.
- Thom: Do we really need a groper-in-chief?
- Sam Seder: The Michelle speech.
- Young Turks: Drumpf flirts with a pre-teen.
Slate: FAUX News didn’t air Michelle Obama’s speech.
John Oliver on Guantánamo.
The Oval Office guide to sexual harassment.
Chris Hayes: Idiot Limbaugh thinks the “Left” is obsessed with consent.
Four Weeks To Go: Top Senate challengers and vulnerable House incumbents
Clinton versus The G(r)OP(er):
- Clinton and Drumpf do a debate duet.7
- Seth Meyers: A closer look at the debate and the Bush Bus
- 2nd 2016 Presidential debate recap: No beating around the Billy Bush
- Jonathan Mann: He’s humping the chair again
- Seth Meyers: Second Late Night Presidential Debate
- Red State Update: Did Drumpf win? Arrest Hillary?
- Kimmel: How Hillary greeted Donald at the debate.
- Slate: The debate whining of Donald Drumpf
- Trevor: Ken Bone is America’s newest sweetheart.
- Olbermann: Drumpf’s 30 most mind-boggling debate moments (so far)
- Stephen responds to the second debate.
- Kimmel interviews Ken Bone
- Jonathan Mann: The Kenneth Bone Song.
White House: West Wing Week.
Young Turks: Giuliani claims Clinton wasn’t there after 9/11, except there is a photo of them.
Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.
Mental Floss: 29 spin-offs that almost happened.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Open Thread 10-14
Who thinks running against the minimum wage is a good idea? I mean lots and lots of Republicans, obviously. Janice Huxford is running for the 44th legislative district against raising the minimum wage. The last minimum wage increase passed pretty much everywhere. Seattle hasn’t had a hit despite the warnings. I don’t understand. It’s bad policy and surely bad politics.
And and and
This is a post for a certain subset of men who are surprised by the allegations against Trump. Because I’m sure most of the women reading this already know already know it. But there are a lot more Trumps, and Aileses, and Cosbys out there. They’re almost certainly in your life. They’re at your job. They’re probably in your family. They might be your friends. And again, the women in your life probably already know it.
If they haven’t told you, it’s probably because you’ve made yourself untrustworthy. Maybe you made a few too many jokes where victims were the punchline, or other crass comments. Maybe something came up in the news and you talked about women making stuff up. Maybe they started to tell you a story and they could figure out your reaction part way through, so they bailed.
So maybe you haven’t heard the stories, or been asked to stay a bit late so they don’t have to be alone with whoever. But it’s out there, and it’s happening to women all the fucking time.
Poll Analysis: Trump’s bad week doesn’t improve
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About 17 new polls have come out since the previous analysis a few days ago. Many of the polls were taken after last Friday’s release of Donald Trump having a candid discussion with Billy Bush. That isn’t to say Sec. Hillary Clinton is totally off the hook, as WikiLeaks has released a series of stolen staffer emails over the past week to some embarassment. They don’t seem to be getting much press attention, but perhaps they are starting to have an effect on the race.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,979 times and Trump wins 21 times, and they are all Electoral College ties. Clinton received (on average) 335 to Trump’s 203 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have greater than a 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have less than a 0.01% probability of winning. The results are an improvement for Clinton who previously had a 99.8% probability of winning and a mean electoral vote total of 328.
Here are the most notable changes.
In Alaska a new poll has Trump up +5.5% in addition to a poll that has him up +3%. Trump’s chances have risen to 90.2% from 71%.
An old Arizona poll drops out, leaving behind two polls, one tie and one with Clinton up +2%. The state has gone from a dead tie to Clinton with a 60.8% chance–still pretty close to a tie.
With the gain and loss of one poll, Florida moves a bit more into the Clinton column. She would win the state with a 91.8% probability today. A few days ago, her chances were 88.6%.
Trump gains in Georgia, as polls age out. He was at 90.1% on Monday, now he is at a 98.7% chance.
In Iowa, one of two polls aged out giving Trump a small increase to 78.1% probability of taking the state now.
In Maine, three old polls age out and one newly released poll weighs in. The biggest change is that Trump’s chances in the 2nd Congressional District have dropped from 98.7% to 59.6%. Trump is +1.6% in ME-2 now.
Nevada is very close. Of the five current polls, two are ties, and three give CLinton small leads (C+3%, C+1%, C+6%). Clinton jumps from a 68.5% (Monday) to a 76.6% probability of winning now.
One new Clinton+9% poll in New Hampshire pushes her chances in the state from 95.2% to 98.4%.
In North Carolina, a new poll enters and an old one leaves, changing Clinton’s chances from 75.3% on Monday to 86% today.
Clinton’s chances also have increased in Ohio, but only because an old Trump+6% poll has aged out. Trump drops from 85.9% to 68.3%.
Utah is the big surprise of the last few days. Both old polls with Trump at +15%, age out, and two new polls are released today. One is a tie at 26% each, the other has Trump at +6%. The result, Trump drops from 100% to a 76.9% chance of winning Utah today.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 13 Oct 2015 to 13 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Tpen Ohread
The last day to register to vote online came and went with record smashing numbers. Congrats to any new voters! But if for some reason, you’re a reader of HA and still need to register in Washington, you can. Do it in person.
Poll Analysis: The Senate Flips
My previous analysis, some 2.5 weeks ago, showed control of the Senate in the hands of the Republicans with a 70.5% probability and a mean of 51 seats. We have had a plethora of new polls since then, and we have seen a big change at the top of the ballot.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 28,826 times, there were 34,688 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 36,486 times. If we presume the VP will be a Democrat (and this seems very likely), Democrats have a 63.5% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans, a 36.5% probability of controlling the Senate.
Where have the changes come?
First, is Illinois, where we didn’t have much polling before. A new poll has Tammy Duckworth (D) leading Mark Kirk (R) by an astonishing 14.4% in a four-way race. Illinois moves from 81.1% chance to a 99.8% chance of electing the Democrat.
In Indiana, where Democrat Evan Bayh is up against Republican Todd Young, we have but a single current poll that has Bayh up +1%. The previous poll had Bayh up +4%, so the Democrat’s chances have dropped from 77.2% to 56.2%–just about a tie.
We have no new polling in Missouri, where Democrat Jason Kander is challenging the incumbent Sen. Roy Blunt (R). But two older polls have dropped out and we are left with one Emerson poll with Kander at +2%. Blunt’s chances have dropped from 97.4% to 35%.
New Hampshire has been a back-and-forth race between Democrat Maggie Hassan and Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R). Ayotte led in the last analysis with a 56.5% probability of winning. Five polls have aged out and four new one have been completed. Now she is up to 68.6% probability.
In North Carolina, Democrat Deborah Ross is challenging Sen. Richard Burr (R). This race has seen a significant shift in the polling and Burr’s 91% probability of winning has changed to a 61.1% probability for Ross.
In Oregon, Sen. Kate Brown (D) is defending her seat against Republican Bud Pierce. The only polling in the last analysis was small and had her up +8%. A new poll has Brown up +15%. Consequently her chances have gone up to 100%.
Oops…I got the gubernatorial candidate names in the Senate file. So it is Mark Callahan (R) versus Sen. Ron Wyden (D). The poll numbers are correct, however, so the only polling in the last analysis was small and had him up +8%. A new poll has Wyden up +15%. Consequently his chances have gone up to 100%.
Pennsylvania is another state where an incumbent is endangered, with Democrat Katie McGinty leading Sen. Pat Toomey (R). Previously she had a 78.3% probability of taking the seat. The loss of five polls and the gain of seven new polls have shifted this a little, and now KcGinty has a 68.7% chance
Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*
This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*
- 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 63.5%, Republicans control the Senate 36.5%.
- Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 49.9 ( 1.1)
- Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 50.1 ( 1.1)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 50 (48, 52)
- Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 50 (48, 52)
Expected outcomes from the simulations:
- Democratic seats w/no election: 35
- Independent seats w/no election: one
- Republican seats w/no election: 30
- Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine
- Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 18
- Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
- Contested Republican seats likely to switch: six
This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Democrat | 42 | |||
| Strong Democrat | 5 | 47 | ||
| Leans Democrat | 3 | 3 | 50 | |
| Weak Democrat | 1 | 1 | 1 | 51 |
| Weak Republican | 0 | 0 | 0 | 49 |
| Leans Republican | 1 | 1 | 49 | |
| Strong Republican | 5 | 48 | ||
| Safe Republican | 43 |
This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.
| State | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| AK | 1 | 320 | 23.4 | 76.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| AZ | 1 | 528 | 40.9 | 59.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| AR | 2 | 1142 | 36.9 | 63.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| CA | 2 | 1106 | 57.0 | 43.0 | 99.9 | 0.1 | |
| CO | 7 | 4258 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| CT | 1& | 872 | 61.7 | 38.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| FL | 10 | 5787 | 47.0 | 53.0 | 0.1 | 99.9 | |
| GA | 5 | 2258 | 40.1 | 59.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| HI | 0 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||
| ID | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| IL | 3 | 1736 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 99.8 | 0.2 | |
| IN | 1 | 498 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 56.2 | 43.8 | |
| IA | 3 | 1428 | 42.1 | 57.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| KS | 1& | 495 | 40.4 | 59.6 | 0.2 | 99.8 | |
| KY | 1& | 440 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 2.4 | 97.6 | |
| LA | 1& | 794 | 34.6 | 65.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| MD | 2 | 1015 | 67.7 | 32.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| MO | 1 | 492 | 51.2 | 48.8 | 65.0 | 35.0 | |
| NV | 7 | 3943 | 48.0 | 52.0 | 4.1 | 95.9 | |
| NH | 5 | 2315 | 49.3 | 50.7 | 31.4 | 68.6 | |
| NY | 1& | 671 | 72.1 | 27.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| NC | 12 | 6452 | 50.2 | 49.8 | 61.1 | 38.9 | |
| ND | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| OH | 5 | 2519 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| OK | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| OR | 1 | 1061 | 61.2 | 38.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| PA | 11 | 5490 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 68.7 | 31.3 | |
| SC | 1& | 941 | 38.4 | 61.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| SD | 0 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||
| UT | 1& | 502 | 27.7 | 72.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | |
| VT | 1& | 544 | 62.3 | 37.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | |
| WA | 2 | 1071 | 54.4 | 45.6 | 97.9 | 2.1 | |
| WI | 4 | 2680 | 54.0 | 46.0 | 99.9 | 0.1 |
@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
Poll Analysis: Clinton has a very good week
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There have been 32 new polls released since the previous analysis on 3 Oct. The polls are largely post-first debate, pre-second debate and have almost all been collected before last Friday’s release of the conversation between Billy Bush and Donald Trump.
For this analysis, I have reduced the window that defines “current polls” to ten days. As the pace of polling picks up, the window will shrink some more.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Sec. Hillary Clinton wins 99,821 times and Trump wins 179 times (including the 23 ties). Clinton received (on average) 328 to Trump’s 210 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 99.8% probability of winning and Trump would have a 0.2% probability of winning.
This is a considerable shift from the 92.5% probability Clinton had in the last analysis. Also her mean electoral vote total has climbed from 300 to 328. That’s quite a jump for one week!
There are a few state changes worth noting.
In Alaska, a new poll has Trump up by only +3%. Previous older polls had Trump with stronger showings (+21% and +14.8%), so this is quite a change. Consequently, Trump’s chances have tumbled from 100% to 71%. I don’t believe Clinton is a serious contender in Alaska, but we only have one small poll for the state, so that is what the available evidence tells us.
Two new Arizona polls don’t favor Trump. We now have three current polls for the state, one has Trump up +2, one is tied, and the most recent has Clinton up +2%. The state is 50-50 (percent) right now. Did I mention that this is Arizona?
A handful of polls favoring Trump have aged out and some new polls have been released. We now have eight polls, six that favor Clinton (+4%, +0.2%, +5%, +4%, +2%, and +3%), and two that favor Trump (+1.4% and +1%). Clinton’s chances have gone from 62.9% to 88.6%. Clearly, the state is quite close, but Clinton seems to be gaining, if slowly.
The previous analysis had Trump running strong in Iowa with a 93.5% chance of winning. The two current polls have Trump up +4% and Clinton up +0.6%, so Trump’s chances drop to 71.6%.
Nevada is another very close state. Last week, Clinton had a 52.4% probability of winning. The five current polls have one tie, three small leads for Clinton, and one for Trump. Clinton’s chances are pegged at 68.5% now.
One bit of positive news for Trump is in New Hampshire where poll turn-over has favored him slightly. He went from a 0.9% chance to 4.8% chance of taking the state.
New Mexico was modestly strong with Clinton at 77.3% chance last week with one poll with her up +4%. That poll is joined by a new one having her up a remarkable +13.5%. Her chances are now 99.3%.
Of the nine current polls in North Carolina, Clinton has small leads in the last eight. This raises her chances from last week from 56.7% to 75.3%.
Ohio has been Trump territory recently. But the most recent poll has Clinton up +2%. Combined with the three other polls (Trump +5%, +1%, and +6%), Trump’s chances have dropped from 94.8% to 85.9%.
In South Carolina, Trump drops from 100% to 77.6% because an old poll at Trump+15.4%, aged out. The remaining poll is Trump+4%. We simply need more polls in the state.
Something similar happens in Texas, where two old poll drops out and one new one is released. Trump goes from 97.2% down to 93.1% chance of winning.
A new Washington state poll has Clinton at +17%, joining another poll with Clinton at +5.7. Clinton goes from 87.5% chance to 99.9%.
In Wisconsin, an old poll drops out (Clinton+3%), one remains (Clinton+6.3), and two new polls join them (Clinton +8% and +9.6%). Clinton’s chances rise from 92% to 99.8% in Wisconsin.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 10 Oct 2015 to 10 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Open Thread October 10
Before we get too removed from the Trump tapes, I’d like to extend an extra special fuck you to the people who enabled Trump over the decades who are now condemning him. Oh Republican elected officials who knew who he was thing this is beyond the pale. Great, but you’re late to the fucking party. Mitt Romney spent half of 2012 alone with Trump and still desperately courted his vote. He was a gentleman the whole time? Oh producers of his show say he said even worse? And yet you kept working with him. Oh there’s probably tape of him dropping n-bombs? Did you not do anything when they first came out?
Debate Open Thread
I am putting this up early tonight because I am in Redmond, heading to the Roanoke. The SR520 bridge is closed, which makes my commute a bit uncertain. So have at it in the comment threads, and I’ll join you as soon as possible.
6:04: We’ve started!
6:07: “We’re going to respect each other.” We’ll see!
6:08: Overheard at the Roanoke: “Oh my God…he’s medicated!”
6:09: Trump isn’t going to even try to answer the question.
Did Donald Trump take advice from Jeb! for this debate?
— Civic Skunk Works (@civicskunkworks) October 10, 2016
Trump has been completely out-alphaed and now sounds like he's in a hostage video.
— Matthew Gertz (@MattGertz) October 10, 2016
I spend a fair amount of time in locker rooms (I'm assuming more than DJT) – we don't brag about sexually assaulting women. #debate
— Michael Maddux (@michaeljmaddux) October 10, 2016
Trump: "No one has more respect for women than I do." Laugher…
— NPI (@nwprogressive) October 10, 2016
…Certainly here at the Roanoke!
6:12: When asked about sexual assault, Trump talks ISIS. I’m sure he’s hit on her, too.
Smart of Clinton to tie the sex tape to a broader indictment of Trump's hate speech and pathologically abusive tendencies.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) October 10, 2016
Anderson Cooper: Why did you brag about sexually assaulting women?
Trump: ***SNIFF***#debates— Megan Burbank (@meganireneb) October 10, 2016
6:16: “For THE African Americans.” Hasn’t ANYONE talked to him about his awkward use of language?
OK, this just went nuclear
— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) October 10, 2016
Hillary quotes Michelle Obama. Unlike Melania, she gives credit to the source. #debate
— The Daily Edge (@TheDailyEdge) October 10, 2016
The preparation gap here is just extraordinary.
— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) October 10, 2016
Calling trump a bullshit artist is an insult to bullshit artists. #Debate #ImWithHer
— Jeff Davies (@JeffDavies206) October 10, 2016
6:23: Holy fuck…Trump is having a melt down!!!!
6:25: “You should be You’d be in jail.” Very presidential.
Gloves are OFF those itty-bitty hands! Whoo!
— Mordant FreedomVoter (@MordantFV) October 10, 2016
Flashback: Donald Trump Called Bill Clinton's Accusers 'Terrible' and 'Unattractive' and… https://t.co/OqK7hUgu3R https://t.co/bH0dzXtFHo
— memeorandum (@memeorandum) October 10, 2016
Q about Healthcare: HRC ANSWERS THE FUCKING QUESTION!!!! #debate
— Michael Maddux (@michaeljmaddux) October 10, 2016
What good is power if you're not going to use it to prosecute your political enemies? https://t.co/scUDSSqYpb
— Omri Ceren (@cerenomri) October 10, 2016
ObamaCare has obviously failed to fix Donald Trump's breathing problems. #debate
— (((Goldy))) (@GoldyHA) October 10, 2016
Trump is saying he has no idea what his health care replacement would be. #debate
— John Fugelsang (@JohnFugelsang) October 10, 2016
6:36: Donald Trump cannot give specifics. His health care plans are more aspirational than operational.
reminder that health care prices are actually rising at the slowest pace in 50 years https://t.co/CfeBDdorS8 pic.twitter.com/y04VNMXEd2
— Catherine Rampell (@crampell) October 10, 2016
6:39: A lot of sniffing going on there, Donald.
Shorter Trump: Shame about your islamaphobia but you muslims have to pick up your game and be batter.
— Sam Seder (@SamSeder) October 10, 2016
If HRC was sniffling like Donald Trump is, Breitbart would claim she has Black Lung.
— Brad Dayspring (@BDayspring) October 10, 2016
6:46: Trump is very whiney this evening.
With all of those sniffles, I don't think Trump should talk about "drug problems" #Debate #CokeNose
— Michael Maddux (@michaeljmaddux) October 10, 2016
Trump's position on Iraq over the years #debate pic.twitter.com/wUMZVWTQVQ
— Roll Call (@rollcall) October 10, 2016
6:50: “She is blaming it on the late, great Abraham Lincoln”. Do we really say “late, great” for someone who has been dead for so long?
Trump just promised to make the wealthy pay their fair share by making them pay less. #Debate
— John Fugelsang (@JohnFugelsang) October 10, 2016
7:00: Okay…he’s unhinged again!
Trump admitted that he hasn’t paid taxes — and that won’t be the big story tonight.
— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) October 10, 2016
Bill 5 seconds from swinging on Donald #Debate pic.twitter.com/rpCcSDgeH5
— Corey Johnson (@coreymaurice) October 10, 2016
Trump: "Hillary Clinton has been president for 30 years!" Apparently. #debate
— (((Goldy))) (@GoldyHA) October 10, 2016
7:02: Clinton should have responded, “There you go whipping out that ’30 years of experience’ thing again.
My two reactions during the #debate pic.twitter.com/26P0Kg1nNW
— Greg Baumann (@glbaumann) October 10, 2016
7:09: Trump is now debating his running mate. This is precious!!!!
Whoah…well, maybe Pence drops the race now? #Debate
— Michael Maddux (@michaeljmaddux) October 10, 2016
This debate is the second-worst thing that ever happened to Abraham Lincoln
— Casey Newton (@CaseyNewton) October 10, 2016
7:15: Dear Donald, Maybe they don’t interrupt Clinton because her answers are coherent, responsive. Quit your persistent whining!!!
Whenever a black person asks a question, Trump talks about inner cities. The racism is breathtaking. #debates
— Kumail Nanjiani (@kumailn) October 10, 2016
7:22: Q about Trump’s “sextape” tweet. Trump: “Benghazi!!!!”
"CHECK OUT SEX TAPE" *WAS YOUR* QUOTE, DONALD.
— Erica C. Barnett (@ericacbarnett) October 10, 2016
Trump denies he sent a tweet urging people to check out a sex tape. #debate
Fact check: https://t.co/h2RhMd2oPm
— The Daily Edge (@TheDailyEdge) October 10, 2016
The billionaire who promised to fund his own campaign just bragged about all the small donors he's scamming #debate
— Richard Hine (@richardhine) October 10, 2016
Conclusion: Trump was better medicated and didn’t do worse than last time. Clinton, as always was in control. Trump may GAIN from this debate…but probably not enough to offset the big losses from his “bus tape”.
IN CONCLUSION: Trump vowed to jail his opponent, admitted he paid no taxes for over a decade and kneecapped his running mate.
— LOLGOP (@LOLGOP) October 10, 2016
Trump is the king of empty sentences. No actual information. Like giving a presentation in class when u did none of the reading. #Debate
— jesseWilliams. (@iJesseWilliams) October 10, 2016
The only story the media should be covering is Trump threatening to jail his political opponent.
— Nick Hanauer (@NickHanauer) October 10, 2016
Seattle’s Drinking Liberally Debate Watching Party
Perhaps you considered skipping tonight’s second Presidential debate between Sec. Hillary Clinton and Reality TV Host Donald Trump. Not any more, huh?
If you are looking for a venue for this evening, please join our debate-watching party at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern. The debate starts at 6:00pm.
Also, join us Tuesday for our normal meeting of the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.
Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening over the next week. Tonight, the Federal Way, Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. And on Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.
There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.
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