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Some 31 new polls have come out since last Thursday’s analysis of the race between Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. The new polls don’t really change much of anything. Biden leads. It isn’t even close.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning. Trump would have no chance of winning.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 12 Oct 2019 to 12 Oct 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
Since July, Biden’s lead has been solidly above the 270 electoral vote victory threshold, generally bouncing a bit between 350 and 400.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):
- 357 electoral votes with a 5.51% probability
- 375 electoral votes with a 3.97% probability
- 363 electoral votes with a 3.75% probability
- 358 electoral votes with a 3.64% probability
- 360 electoral votes with a 3.33% probability
- 359 electoral votes with a 3.04% probability
- 369 electoral votes with a 2.73% probability
- 365 electoral votes with a 2.69% probability
- 381 electoral votes with a 2.59% probability
- 351 electoral votes with a 2.54% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Biden wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Biden: 363.3 (16.8)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 174.7 (16.8)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Biden: 362 (334, 401)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 176 (137, 204)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Biden | 250 | |||
| Strong Biden | 71 | 321 | ||
| Leans Biden | 36 | 36 | 357 | |
| Weak Biden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 357 |
| Weak Trump | 18 | 18 | 18 | 181 |
| Leans Trump | 24 | 24 | 163 | |
| Strong Trump | 77 | 139 | ||
| Safe Trump | 62 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 1 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Biden | Trump | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 | Votes | polls | Votes | Biden | Trump | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1 | 1008 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 2 | 1209 | 48.6 | 51.4 | 25.8 | 74.2 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 22 | 12191 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 99.7 | 0.3 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1* | 799 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 35.3 | 64.7 | ||
| CA | 55 | 3 | 7848 | 69.8 | 30.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 1 | 918 | 55.6 | 44.4 | 99.1 | 0.9 | ||
| CT | 7 | 2* | 1494 | 62.5 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 1 | 737 | 62.0 | 38.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DC | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 22 | 18968 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| GA | 16 | 14 | 9547 | 50.3 | 49.7 | 67.8 | 32.2 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 829 | 65.9 | 34.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 1* | 565 | 36.6 | 63.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IL | 20 | 1 | 1120 | 57.1 | 42.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1* | 950 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IA | 6 | 9 | 6062 | 50.4 | 49.6 | 67.1 | 32.9 | ||
| KS | 6 | 2 | 1431 | 45.8 | 54.2 | 1.3 | 98.7 | ||
| KY | 8 | 2 | 1843 | 39.3 | 60.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1* | 540 | 46.7 | 53.3 | 13.3 | 86.7 | ||
| ME | 2 | 6 | 4079 | 58.2 | 41.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 5 | 1834 | 64.7 | 35.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 5 | 1548 | 51.6 | 48.4 | 80.7 | 19.3 | ||
| MD | 10 | 2 | 1310 | 66.3 | 33.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 1* | 745 | 69.5 | 30.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 23 | 15587 | 54.0 | 46.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MN | 10 | 4 | 2617 | 54.0 | 46.0 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1 | 951 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 13.6 | 86.4 | ||
| MO | 10 | 2 | 1613 | 47.1 | 52.9 | 5.3 | 94.7 | ||
| MT | 3 | 4 | 2525 | 46.0 | 54.0 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| NE | 2 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 376 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 37.5 | 62.5 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 3 | 1258 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 96.5 | 3.5 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NV | 6 | 6 | 4898 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NH | 4 | 4 | 2729 | 55.0 | 45.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 2 | 981 | 61.1 | 38.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1 | 816 | 57.6 | 42.4 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 453 | 67.8 | 32.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 18 | 12950 | 51.4 | 48.6 | 98.8 | 1.2 | ||
| ND | 3 | 2 | 870 | 40.8 | 59.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OH | 18 | 9 | 7138 | 49.9 | 50.1 | 44.1 | 55.9 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1 | 442 | 37.8 | 62.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1 | 897 | 59.0 | 41.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| PA | 20 | 27 | 19351 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| RI | 4 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| SC | 9 | 6 | 5258 | 47.1 | 52.9 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| SD | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| TN | 11 | 2* | 1407 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TX | 38 | 13 | 10827 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 5.5 | 94.5 | ||
| UT | 6 | 1 | 1093 | 44.5 | 55.5 | 0.6 | 99.4 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1* | 516 | 63.6 | 36.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 1 | 679 | 52.7 | 47.3 | 85.1 | 14.9 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1 | 526 | 61.8 | 38.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1 | 494 | 40.5 | 59.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| WI | 10 | 19 | 12264 | 53.3 | 46.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
Help me feed hungry voters waiting in long lines! Some are waiting for hours in pouring rain. They deserve your support, and what could provide better aid and comfort to the resistance than a slice of pizza? I’ve donated $100 (5 pizzas) to Pizzas To The Polls. Donate here:
https://polls.pizza/
How Republicans will lose Florida.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/10/republicans-broke-floridas-unemployment-system-could-it-cost-trump-the-election/
2,
Yeah, isn’t it funny how the mainstream corporate media behemoths like NYT and CNN, who had no shortage of resources to go look for “aggrieved, aging, white men” in coffee shops in 2017, are nowhere to be found on the 30 million people out of work. USA Today would have us all believe that this is just a Great Big American Vacation, and the only struggle is figuring out what to do with the kids.
Once again it looks like our media, and by extension most of our political leaders, will fail to understand what is driving this massive shift in political support. And if Democrats fail to see it and fail to act on it they’ll loose all that support we worked so hard to gain.
If Florida flips, it needs to stay flipped. Those 29 electoral votes are a deal breaker that functionally destroy the future of the GOP. And after what we’ve seen in the last four years and what we are seeing unfold right now, that is something Democrats should work tirelessly for in order to preserve democracy and the rule of law. But it won’t stay flipped if we go into 2021 catering to tax cutting, deficit hawks, and entitlement reforms the way Clinton did.
1,
49% increase in turnout on first day of early voting in GA needs lots of pizza.
#ChefsForThePolls
https://chefsforthepolls.org/
Getting it done in Georgia, where lines yesterday were around the block filled with thousands of hungry voters skipping lunch and/or dinner in order to strike a blow for democracy.
Just sent them a C-note for you, Roger.
Trafalgar poll just dropped in PA: Biden 47-45.
Also Trafalgar, although off-topic relative to this thread:
Kelly 47-45 in AZ.
In early September Trafalgar had Biden and Trump tied in FL.
Joe Biden is tight lipped about the question of packing the Supreme Court with liberal progressives judges should he win in November. Since he’s reluctant to talk about such an action, it probably means his first official act as President will be to start packing the Court.
It’s a boneheaded move, Joe, and it will blow up in your face.
@6 Off topic. Also, you don’t know what you’re talking about.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/i-m-not-fan-court-packing-biden-responds-after-trump-n1243077
@4 Thanks for the heads-up on Chefs For The Polls. I added a link to their website to see if Handbill.US can generate some donations to them, too.
6,
Elaborate.
How does this “blow up in “his” face?
If it’s going to happen, they’re going to do it the right way. Remember, Biden ran programs and budgets out of the White House for eight years already. Served more than three decades in the Senate. Got a lot of stuff done. A lot.
He’s not like your idiot FailPresident who’s more concerned with staff loyalty than competence.
Howz yer wall doin’?
Koal Jerbs?
Ukranian Drug Deals?
Huhrduhrham?
I’ll bet you he can get through his first six months without even launching an investigation against himself and appointing a special prosecutor. Ya think?
You’ve grown accustomed to a certain very low standard with King ShitMidas. You won’t miss it when he’s gone. But you’ll also have to get used to people who line up the pins before rolling strikes. So if they’re going to do it they’ll get themselves a bulletproof Senate majority first by adding two new states and four new Democratic Senators.
So yuck it up. Shake your head and wag your finger. But don’t waste your time expecting Democrats to hold the door for any more so-called moderate Rapepublicans. Not after the last four years. And not after the last few months of shutting down polling locations, locking up mail, stealing ballots, and targeting low income and minority communities for disenfranchisement, voter intimidation and even calling for criminal investigations to interrupt and prevent voting.
Pete and Repeat are sitting on the fence, Pete falls off, who is left…..blah blah blah
Does this look familiar?
http://horsesass.org/poll-anal.....for-trump/