 |
 |
I count about 55 new polls since my previous analysis a few days ago. Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins all 100,000 times. Biden received (on average) 364 to Trump’s 174 electoral votes. That is a small bump for Biden but, essentially, this is more of the same near-landslide lead for Biden. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.
Here is how the race has progressed over time—this is based on a series of elections simulated every seven days over the past year including polls from the preceding month when possible (FAQ).
The distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the 100,000 simulated elections using the last month of polls strongly suggests Biden would have well over 330 electoral votes if the election was held today:
Here are the ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution can be downloaded here):
- 357 electoral votes with a 16.57% probability
- 356 electoral votes with a 11.01% probability
- 351 electoral votes with a 6.95% probability
- 358 electoral votes with a 5.20% probability
- 350 electoral votes with a 4.95% probability
- 394 electoral votes with a 4.15% probability
- 395 electoral votes with a 3.72% probability
- 341 electoral votes with a 3.02% probability
- 362 electoral votes with a 2.39% probability
- 340 electoral votes with a 2.36% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Biden wins greater than 99.9%, Trump wins less than 0.1%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Biden: 363.8 (18.0)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 174.2 (18.0)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Biden: 357 (335, 404)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 181 (134, 203)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Biden | 299 | |||
| Strong Biden | 35 | 334 | ||
| Leans Biden | 22 | 22 | 356 | |
| Weak Biden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 356 |
| Weak Trump | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 |
| Leans Trump | 46 | 46 | 182 | |
| Strong Trump | 59 | 136 | ||
| Safe Trump | 77 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 1 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Biden | Trump | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 | Votes | polls | Votes | Biden | Trump | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1 | 1008 | 39.6 | 60.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 4 | 2334 | 47.6 | 52.4 | 5.0 | 95.0 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 27 | 17603 | 51.3 | 48.7 | 99.4 | 0.6 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1 | 592 | 36.7 | 63.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 2 | 1552 | 64.6 | 35.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 8 | 5798 | 56.6 | 43.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CT | 7 | 2* | 1494 | 62.5 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 1 | 737 | 62.0 | 38.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DC | 3 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| FL | 29 | 31 | 34316 | 52.1 | 47.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| GA | 16 | 18 | 14306 | 50.6 | 49.4 | 83.4 | 16.6 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1 | 880 | 68.5 | 31.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 1* | 565 | 36.6 | 63.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IL | 20 | 1 | 1120 | 57.1 | 42.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1 | 624 | 46.0 | 54.0 | 8.9 | 91.1 | ||
| IA | 6 | 14 | 9006 | 50.3 | 49.7 | 68.1 | 31.9 | ||
| KS | 6 | 4 | 4500 | 42.8 | 57.2 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1 | 594 | 41.1 | 58.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1 | 943 | 39.9 | 60.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| ME | 2 | 3 | 1653 | 56.6 | 43.4 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 2 | 486 | 63.0 | 37.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 2 | 479 | 49.3 | 50.7 | 39.8 | 60.2 | ||
| MD | 10 | 2 | 1310 | 66.3 | 33.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 1* | 745 | 69.5 | 30.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 29 | 25617 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MN | 10 | 7 | 4960 | 54.0 | 46.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1 | 951 | 47.4 | 52.6 | 12.5 | 87.5 | ||
| MO | 10 | 3 | 2441 | 46.9 | 53.1 | 1.3 | 98.7 | ||
| MT | 3 | 6 | 3892 | 46.5 | 53.5 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| NE | 2 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE1 | 1 | 1* | 376 | 48.9 | 51.1 | 39.7 | 60.3 | ||
| NE2 | 1 | 2 | 890 | 54.8 | 45.2 | 97.2 | 2.8 | ||
| NE3 | 1 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NV | 6 | 6 | 4541 | 53.5 | 46.5 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| NH | 4 | 5 | 3438 | 55.5 | 44.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 3 | 1644 | 62.3 | 37.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NM | 5 | 2 | 1386 | 57.3 | 42.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 453 | 67.8 | 32.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 24 | 19535 | 51.7 | 48.3 | 99.9 | 0.1 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1 | 405 | 42.0 | 58.0 | 0.7 | 99.3 | ||
| OH | 18 | 12 | 12951 | 49.1 | 50.9 | 7.8 | 92.2 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1 | 5193 | 38.5 | 61.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1 | 897 | 59.0 | 41.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| PA | 20 | 32 | 26092 | 53.3 | 46.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| RI | 4 | 0 | (100) | (0) | |||||
| SC | 9 | 7 | 5655 | 46.7 | 53.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| SD | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) | |||||
| TN | 11 | 2* | 1407 | 43.6 | 56.4 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| TX | 38 | 12 | 15073 | 49.5 | 50.5 | 21.7 | 78.3 | ||
| UT | 6 | 2 | 1973 | 43.9 | 56.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1* | 516 | 63.6 | 36.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 3 | 2586 | 56.8 | 43.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WA | 12 | 2 | 1118 | 61.8 | 38.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WV | 5 | 3 | 1430 | 40.7 | 59.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| WI | 10 | 23 | 15725 | 53.0 | 47.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WY | 3 | 0 | (0) | (100) |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
Puddy likes what Pollster Frank Luntz said about almost all polls and most every other pollsters this election! Gonna be a bloodbath if BiteME! loses.
A bloodbath?
Democrats don’t have nearly as much at stake right now. We have lots to work towards. Delays happen. Like 2018 in Texas. O’Roarke wasn’t wrong. His timing was off. Texas isn’t a red state. Texas is (was?) a non-voting state.
Republicans lose this right now and they are in the wilderness for a decade. Especially if it further solidifies the party’s permanent losses of the suburbs, college educated women, and more recently even a giant chunk of olds.
The poll averages were not far off in 2016 and the results were within the MOEs. It was a much more unstable polling environment with much much larger numbers of undecided survey respondants. It was the media analysts who got things wrong in 2016. They just never imagined that 63 million traditional marriage, “God-and-country” Republicans would vote for a candidate who admitted to them that he had a long violent history of sexual assaults.
They know better now. We all know better now.
And that’s your one big problem.
Relevant: http://horsesass.org/poll-anal.....for-trump/
Relevant?
How so? Can you elaborate at all? Are you able to do that?
@3 “By this point four years ago, [Trump] was rapidly closing the gap with Hillary Clinton. No such advancements can be seen in the 2020 polling against Biden.”
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/25/politics/biden-leads-trump-polling/index.html
Wanker @3,
I remember during Super Bowl XLIX. Seattle was leading the Patriots 24 to 14 at the start of the 4th quarter. There it was, Seattle leading, all lit-up on the scoreboard. But then, somehow, the Seahawks LOST!?!
I guess that means we shouldn’t post the score anymore until after the final score is in?
That would make football a lot of fun.
Donald Trump is no Tom Brady.
And Joe Biden isn’t going to throw an interception on Trump’s one yard line with twenty seconds to go.
These are my bold predictions for 2020.
Throwing an interception on Trump’s one-yard line with 20 seconds to go = Campaigning in Arizona with one week to go, completely ignoring Wisconsin.
Or perhaps that is too off-topic for this thread.