A new SurveyUSA poll today sheds some light on the 2016 Washington gubernatorial election between Gov. Jay Inslee and Bill Bryant. The poll, taken from 31-Oct to 2-Nov surveyed 667 likely voters in Washington state (3.9 MOE). Inslee took 50% and Bryant, 43%.

There were 620 people who went for Inslee or Bryant. If we consider only these 620 people, Inslee receives 53.8% and Bryant 46.2%.

A Monte Carlo analysis employing a million simulated elections finds that Inslee wins 903,218 times and Bryant wins 91,992 times. (Other or Undecided wins 4790 times.)

Inslee wins 90.8% of the simulated elections to Bryant’s 9.2%, suggesting that Inslee has about a 91% chance of winning, based only on the evidence contained in this poll.

Here is the distribution of votes from the simulated elections.

Of course, we have other polls in this election that shed additional light. Here is the polling over the past 8 months in the election suggesting that there has been almost no change in the race over the past eight months.

The relative stasis in the race suggests that we can combine the October Elway poll with the current poll. The Elway poll, taken 20-22 October, surveyed 502 individuals (4.5 MOE) and found Inslee leading 51% to 39%. If we repeat the previous analysis using both polls, Inslee wins 989,592 times and Bryant wins 9,805 times. The evidence from these two polls, suggests that Inslee will win with near certainty (99.0% probability).

The distribution of votes looks like this.

There you have it. If the election was held today, Inslee would beat Bryant. I don’t expect the race to change much between now and Tuesday, but it is wise to keep in mind that anything can happen in politics.

John Oliver: Segregation.

Your mission.

Matthew Filipowicz: How to protest the Bundy way!.

Meet the Alt Right:

• Farron Cousins: White supremacists will win, even if Drumpf loses
• Samantha Bee: Feelin’ alt-right, part 1
• Samantha Bee: Feelin’ alt-right, part 2
• Sam Seder: David Duke tries to explain “Jew-S-A”, melts down.
• Young Turks: Guess who the Newspaper of the KKK endorsed?
• Farron Cousins: White supremacists endorse Drumpf, plan election day disruptions
• David Pakman: White supremacists plotting election day “dhow of force” to scare Black voters away

Al Sharpton interviews Pres. Obama Part I.

Al Sharpton interviews Pres. Obama Part II.

How the Electoral College work?

Holy Shit! You’ve Got To Vote!

Conan: Election battle–Drumpf Tower versus Hillary’s Chappaqua home.

What is the difference between a Ponzi vs. a pyramid scheme.

Mental Floss: 26 scientific studies about animals.

The 2016 Sexual Predator Comedy Tour Staring Donald “Fuckface von Clownstick” Drumpf:

• Mike Daisey: The Drumpf Card
• Olbermann: Is Donald Drumpf a Russian agent?
• Jon: My Twitter wars with Drumpf.
• David Pakman: Christian nutburger claims God will punish America if we don’t elect Donald Drumpf.
• Who is cashing in on Drumpf’s border wall?
• Young Turks: Drump To Investors, “You should’ve known I was a loser.”
• If Barack Obama was Donald Drumpf.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf starts talking to himself during speech…. Voices in his head?
• Daily Show: Envisioning Drumpf’s first term.
• Newzoids: Drumpf on Hillary’s pneumonia
• Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf–Emails (Plus special guest Melania Drumpf)
• Olbermann: Donald Drumpf and his uncanny resemblance to horror
• Samantha Bee: Drumpf’s Rusky friends.
• Behind the scenes at Drumpf headquarters: Meet the speechwriter:

• Stephen: Black supporter mistakenly thrown out of a Drumpf rally
• Behind the scenes at Drumpf headquarters: Twitter troubles.
• Pink Farm: Liar, Liar, Liar.
• Young Turks: Drumpf bullies female reporter during rally.
• Sam Seder: Video surfaces of Drumpf attending WrestleMania with mobster he said he didn’t know
• Maddow: About those Drumpf supporters holding “Blacks for Trump” in Florida
• Olbermann: What is Donald Drumpf’s plan for Drumpf TV?
• David Pakman: Drumpf energy advisor has NO CLUE how electricity works
• Melania is deeply concerned about online bullying?!?
• Could a “silent majority” win this for Drumpf?
• Mark Fiore: Grabbing the White House
• Ivanka, we’re here for you.:

• Stephen: Drumpf wants voters to change their ballots.
• Olbermann: Be angry with Donald Drumpf, but not afraid!

White House: West Wing Week.

Scariest moments of the 2016 election.

Late Show: FBI: Email Reader Unit.

John Batiste teaches you how to vote.

Weed, guns, and minimum wage: What else is the U.S. voting on?.

Farron Cousins: Emails reveal GOP plot to block North Carolina African Americans from voting.

Secret booth.

Tour the International Space Station.

Hillary Makes Herstory:

• Trevor: The FBI (once again) examines Hillary Clinton’s emails
• Seth Meyers: The GOP threatens to paralyze a Hillary Clinton presidency
• Louis C.K. is all in for Hillary
• Sam Seder: Obama calls out FBI Director James Comey for operating on ‘innuendo, incomplete info, leaks’
• Newzoids: Hillary’s country & western album
• I’m with purr
• Trevor: Hillary Clinton lives the Black experience
• Sam Seder: Libertarian VP candidate Bill Weld basically endorses Hillary Clinton.
• Red State Update: Comey vs Clinton over email scandal– Is Hillary done?
• Stephen: Clinton prepares for her victory party
• James Corden: We’re still talking emails?!?
• Newzoids: Hillary Clinton is sick.

Seth Meyers: Polls are tightening….

Sam Seder: Why is the Left fighting a carbon tax in Washington State?.

David Pakman: GOP obstructionists threaten to keep Clinton Supreme Court seat empty.

PsychoSuperMom: Voter fraud is a fraud:

Samantha Bee interviews President Obama.

Young Turks: Chris Christie cronies guilty in Bridgegate scandal

You Make Me Feel.

Kids take time out from trick-or-treating to discuss the election.

Four likely outcome of the election.

Young Turks: How Southern states are rigging the election.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
94.2% probability of winning	5.8% probability of winning
Mean of 295 electoral votes	Mean of 243 electoral votes

Yesterday the analysis had Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump with, on average, 296 electoral votes to 242. And Clinton’s probablity of winning was 93.9% to Trump’s 6.1% chance.

Today there were 19 new polls released. To me, the one noticable thing about today’s batch is that they weren’t that bad for Clinton and not that bad for Trump. You can see the polls and my comments on my Twitter timeline (@hominidviews).

My impression was verified by today’s analysis. After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 94,164 times and Trump wins 5,836 times (including the 950 ties). Clinton received (on average) 295 to Trump’s 243 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 94.2% probability of winning and Trump would have a 5.8% probability of winning.

In other words, very little has changed from today’s poll dump. This suggests that Hillary’s slide we’ve seen for the past week has hit bottom. If so, she may even make gains in the final four days, as Obama did in 2012.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 04 Nov 2015 to 04 Nov 2016, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Clinton	Trump
93.9% probability of winning	6.1% probability of winning
Mean of 296 electoral votes	Mean of 242 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Donald Trump gaining a little over Sec. Hillary Clinton. She had a 99.7% probability of winning an election, and a mean electoral vote of 315.

Since yesterday’s analysis there have been 22 new polls released. The polls feel like they are a little more favorable to Trump. Indeed, now after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 93,944 times and Trump wins 6,056 times (including the 1,017 ties). Clinton received (on average) 296 to Trump’s 242 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 93.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a 6.1% probability of winning.

I should point out that there is one big change from yesterday. I am now using a 10-day poll window instead of a 14-day window. Doing this tends to nudge each candidate toward 50% probability of winning because sample sizes drop in each state. Additionally, the polls that are dropped are all pre-Comey polls. Clinton has slipped in the last two weeks, so we would expect a 10 day window to be worse for her than a 14 day window. The opposite happens when she is on an up-swing (see the time trend graph below to see both phenomena).

Something else of interest: four years ago tomorrow (Friday), I did an analysis that had Pres. Barack Obama up on Gov. Mitt Romney, 94.4% to 5.6% with a mean electoral vote total of 302 to 236. Essentially, Clinton is running at about the same strength now as Obama was in 2012. One difference, perhaps, is that Obama was starting to gain at this point, whereas Clinton seems to be losing EVs.

There are a few noteworthy shifts from my previous analysis.

Arizona loses two blue polls and a tie. Now all the current polls have small margins for Trump. His chances have gone up from 77% to 97%.

In Colorado, Trump doesn’t lead in any of the current polls. But the small margins for Clinton means that Trump moves from 5% to 21% chances of taking the state.

Florida switches from blue to red, primarily on account of (1) a bunch of pro-Clinton polls being dropped and (2) the addition of a Trump+4 Remington poll. Almost every Remington state presidentail poll I’ve seen this year looks like it is about 3 points skewed toward the Republican. And the firm is a Republican pollster. Still, it seems to be a real, valid pollster. In any case, we went from Clinton at 68% probability of winning to Trump at 58% in Florida.

Clinton slips a little bit in Maine, but this is entirely due to a smaller sample size from dropping one of three current polls.

The same thing happens in Maine’s 2nd CD, but now we are left with a pro-Trump and a pro-Clinton poll. Trump’s chances have increased from 44% to 57%. Earlier in the election season, Trump had a solid lead in ME-2.

In Nevada, we lost 6 polls, all but one favoring Clinton, and added one new pro-Clinton poll. This gives us four current polls: Clinton+2, Trump+6, Trump+6 and a tie. The Trump+4 poll is from Remington, by the way. This changes Clinton’s chances from 56% yeterday to only 13% today.

Over the last month, New Hampshire has seen a shift from strong Clinton to about even. Right now, Clinton would be expected to win NH with a 61% probability.

We have lots of new North Carolina polling. While most of the current polls favor Clinton, 3 of the 4 most recent ones favor Trump. One of them is, you guessed it, Remington. In any case, Clinton drops from 80% chance to 53% chance. A toss-up if there ever was one.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 03-Nov-2015 to 03-Nov-2016, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Clinton	Trump
99.7% probability of winning	0.3% probability of winning
Mean of 315 electoral votes	Mean of 223 electoral votes

The previous analysis last Thursday showed Sec. Hillary Clinton winning the election with near certainty with, on average, 333 electoral votes (EVs) to Donald Trump’s 205 EVs.

Since then, there have been 91 new new polls released that satisfy my inclusion criteria. So today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,714 times and Trump wins 286 times (including the 9 ties). Clinton received (on average) 315 (-18) to Trump’s 223 (+18) electoral votes.

In an election held now, Clinton would have a 99.7% (-0.3%) probability of winning and Trump would have a 0.3% probability of winning.

There are a few interesting changes since Thursday. Most notably, Alaska is suddently blue! The only current poll has Clinton up by +4%. Previous polls had Trump leading. The trend towards Clinton looks plausible:

New polls have turned Arizona back to red again after being blue for some days. Last Thursday, Clinton would have won AZ with a 75% probability. Today, Trump would win with a 77% probability. The trend toward Trump is convincing:

Florida had been leaning blue last Thursday. A bunch of new polls has painted a redder picture, although Clinton’s chances have only dropped from 84% to 68%. Here is the last week of polling:

In Indiana, a new Trump+11 poll has strengthened Trump’s chances from 89% to 98%.

Last week we had two Iowa polls that, together, favored Trump. Now, the only current poll is a tie between the candidates dropping Trump’s chances from 71% to 50%.

Some new Maine polls have changed little beyond the state’s 2nd congressional district. Trump had a weak lead last week and now Clinton leads in two of the three current polls. Trump had a 58% chance of taking the CD last week; now Clinton has a 57% chance of taking it.

In Minnesota, a new poll gives Clinton a +10 margin, increasing her chances of taking the state to 99%.

In rare gains for Clinton, a new Montana poll only has Trump up by +1% instead of double digits. This lowers Trump’s chances from 100% to 97.7%.

We have three new polls in Nevada, and two of them give Trump a slight lead. The result is that Clinton’s chances have dropped from 83% to 56%. The state is, essentially, tied now.

Since last week, eight new North Carolina polls have come and a few lost out for a total of 14 current polls. What do all they new polls reveal? Clinton still has an 80% chance of taking the state. Here is the last two months of polling:

Ohio has gone more strongly for Trump. Last Thursday, Trump had an 89% chance of taking the state. Today that is 98%.

Oregon went from three current polls to one new one with Clinton at +7%. Because the poll is small there is great uncertainty, and Clinton’s chances have dropped to about 90%.

Pennsylvania has had a big polling rush the last few days. It hasn’t made much difference. Clinton wins every one, even if by small margins.

Last week, Trump was badly slipping in Texas, with +3% and +4% polls. Now, we have two new polls with Trump at +7% and +12%. Consequently Clinton’s chances have dropped in Texas from 14% to 0.1%.

Something similar has happened in Utah—polls tanked for Trump last week. This week they rebound with Trump up last week from 87% to about 100%.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 02 Nov 2015 to 02 Nov 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Only a week to go! Let’s celebrate with an evening of politics, conversation and catharsis over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern beginning about 8pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other 189 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
48.0% probability	52.0% probability
Mean of 49 seats	Mean of 51 seats

My analysis last Tuesday showed control of the Senate going to the Democrats with a 63.5% probability and 50 seats. I’ve added a bunch of new Senate polls since then, and things look tied up.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 15,370 times and there were 32,633 ties (which I presume would go to the Democrats), and Republicans control the Senate 51,997 times. So, in an election held today, Democrats would have a 48% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans would have a 52% probability of controlling the Senate.

Essentially, the Senate is a toss-up. Here are the most important changes since Tuesday.

In the Democrats’ favor, Indiana has gained some clarity from a couple of new polls that favor Democrat Evan Bayh over Republican Todd Young. Bayh’s chances have gone from 56% to 89%.

Three new polls in Missouri move the race in favor of Republican Sen. Roy Blunt over Democrat Jason Kander. Blunt has gone from a a 35% chance last Tuesday to a 78% chance of taking the seat today.

In Nevada, we have a battle between Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican Joe Heck for Sen. Harry Reid’s (D) old seat. We have seven new polls and a couple of continuing polls since Tuesday, when Heck led in every poll. Today, Heck leads in 5 and Masto leads in 4 polls. Consequently, Heck’s chances have declined from 96% to 54%…pretty much a toss-up.

Today, we have eight new North Carolina polls and four carry-overs from last Tuesday, when the polls pretty evenly split between Democrat Deborah Ross and Republican Sen. Richard Burr. But the new polls have almost entirely gone against the Ross, and her chances have declined from 69% on Tuesday to 10% today.

In Pennsylvania, we have five new polls and five carry-over polls. The new polls have been a bit less favorable to Democrat Katie McGinty. Her chances against Republican Sen. Pat Toomey have declined a bit from 69% to 46%–basically the state is a toss-up.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 48.0%, Republicans control the Senate 52.0%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 49.5 (1.0)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 50.5 (1.0)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 49 (48, 52)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 51 (48, 52)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 35
• Independent seats w/no election: one
• Republican seats w/no election: 30
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 21
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: three

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold	Safe	+ Strong	+ Leans	+ Weak
Safe Democrat	46
Strong Democrat	1	47
Leans Democrat	1	1	48
Weak Democrat	0	0	0	48
Weak Republican	2	2	2	52
Leans Republican	3	3	50
Strong Republican	4	47
Safe Republican	43

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

		#	Sample	%	%	Dem	Rep
State	@	polls	size	Dem	Rep	% wins	% wins
AL		0	0			(0)	(100)
AK		1	320	23.4	76.6	0.0	100.0
AZ		3	1425	42.9	57.1	0.0	100.0
AR		1	398	39.4	60.6	0.2	99.9
CA		2	1137	66.3	33.7	100.0	0.0
CO		4	2463	57.5	42.5	100.0	0.0
CT		1&	872	61.7	38.3	100.0	0.0
FL		13	8100	47.4	52.6	0.0	100.0
GA		4	3001	42.4	57.6	0.0	100.0
HI		0	0			(100)	(0)
ID		2	1309	30.2	69.8	0.0	100.0
IL		2	1780	57.1	42.9	100.0	0.0
IN		3	1361	52.3	47.7	88.5	11.5
IA		1	744	40.5	59.5	0.0	100.0
KS		1	506	36.2	63.8	0.0	100.0
KY		1&	440	43.2	56.8	1.9	98.1
LA		1&	794	34.6	65.4	0.0	100.0
MD		1&	614	66.6	33.4	100.0	0.0
MO		3	1450	48.6	51.4	22.2	77.8
NV		9	6135	49.9	50.1	46.4	53.6
NH		9	5573	49.6	50.4	32.6	67.4
NY		1	568	71.0	29.0	100.0	0.0
NC		14	8208	49.0	51.0	10.0	90.0
ND		0	0			(0)	(100)
OH		9	5050	41.5	58.5	0.0	100.0
OK		0	0			(0)	(100)
OR		2	1619	61.7	38.3	100.0	0.0
PA		11	6155	49.9	50.1	45.8	54.2
SC		1&	941	38.4	61.6	0.0	100.0
SD		0	0			(0)	(100)
UT		2	983	31.8	68.2	0.0	100.0
VT		2	1085	70.9	29.1	100.0	0.0
WA		1	462	63.0	37.0	100.0	0.0
WI		6	3659	53.5	46.5	99.8	0.2

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Follow @hominidviews on Twitter for Senate and Presidential polling and analysis updates.

Stephen with the WERD: Debt Offensive.

Funny or Die: Hey New Hampshire, let’s vote! with Ben Affleck.

Young Turks: Sheriff Joe Arpaio charged with criminal contempt.

Epic Rap Battle: Hillary v. Drumpf.

Sam Seder” Sen. Mark Kirk blurts out racist comment about opponent Tammy Duckworth during debate

Samantha Bee: UN Tour.

WaPo: Eleven women who broke barriers in Washington D.C..

Mental Floss: 25 life hacks for Halloween.

The 2016 Sexual Offender Clown Show:

• Stephen: TV pitches for Drumpf.
• Seth Meyers: A closer look at Drumpf’s closing argument
• Mark Fiore: A Drumpf named Sue.
• Drumpf Symphony
• Young Turks: Drumpf ex-wife says Donald is a cry baby.
• Maddow: Fred and Donald, “You know I don’t rent to the N******!”
• Olbermann: Would a Drumpf win or a foreign invasion be worse?
• Adam Ruins Everything: Other Donald Drumpfs throughout history:

• Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf — Take ‘Em Off?
• Stephen: The ghost of Abraham Lincoln responds to Drumpf’s Gettysburg Address.
• Trevor Noah: Donald Drumpf, libel bully
• Seth Meyers: Drumpf’s Obamacare fail
• Olbermann: Why Donald Drumpf is obsessed with dictators.
• Stephen: Drumpf’s star is attacked.
• Kimmel: Drumpf’s star is vandalized.
• Funny or Die: Baby Drumpf!
• Thom: Drumpf sending “citizen journalists” to intimidate voters at the polls
• Olbermann: A message to women supporting Drumpf.
• Ana Gasteyer performs “Drumpfy Kind of Christmas”
• Kimmel: Drumpf-TV’s first scripted series.
• PsychoSuperMom: Sue me!
• Stephen: Joe Biden unloads on the potential groper-in-chief.
• James Corden: Donald stinks, and Eric Drumpf steals
• Trevor Noah: Taking Drumpf behind the gym.
• Muslims for Drumpf.
• Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf–Hillary’s invitation
• Seth Meyers: Drumpf and the crack-up of the GOP
• Susie SampsonMake America Great Again:

• Jake and Amir: Donald Drumpf.
• Olbermann: The normalization of violence at Drumpf rallies.
• Stephen: Don’t let your flag near Drumpf.
• Maddow: RNC in legal troubles over Drumpf’s calls for poll watchers.
• Young Turks: Drumpf is a libel bully, loser.
• Kimmel: Obama laughs at Drumpf.

Challenging, frustrating, fantastic: Life as a woman in the White House.

Roll Call: Election forecast with 2 weeks to go.

President Obama on VOTING.

Key of Awesome: (Hamilton Parody) Hillary Rodham Clinton!:

Clinton Makes History:

• Obama on trusting Hillary Clinton.
• Stephen: Is Hillary really a Cubs fan?
• Seth Meyers: Hillary Clinton’s Facebook birthday messages
• Kimmel: Drumpf supporters wish Hillary happy birthday.

Kimmel: 500 weeks of Unnecessary Censorship.

Young Turks: Is FBI’s James Comey trying to manipulate the election?

John Oliver: Opioids.

Samantha Bee: First: Do No Harm. Second: Do No Pussy Stuff.:

How Hollywood views the women of Washington D.C.

Hillary Makes History:

• Seth Meyers: Late Night Presidential Debate
• Lessons in grace with Michelle Obama.
• Samantha Bee: The Good, The Bad, The Nasty (Part 1)
• Samantha Bee: The Good, The Bad, The Nasty (Part 2)
• Samantha Bee: The Good, The Bad, The Nasty (Part 3)
• Olbermann: This election is too important to not vote for Hillary.
• David Pakman: Early voting is in Hillary’s favor.

Funny or Die: Hey America, let’s vote! with Judd Apatow.

Honest political ads: You’re fucked.

Farron Cousins: Ted Cruz proves that Republicans are whiny toddlers.

Trevor Noah: ObamaCare.

Newt “Cheating On My Wives For America” Gingrich:

• Sam Seder: Gingrich’s total meltdown on Megyn Kelly.
• Young Turks: Newt goes nuts during Megyn Kelly interview.
• Farron Cousins: FAUX’s Megyn Kelly hammers pervert Newt Gingrich

Adam Conover joins Stephen to ruin things.

White House: West Wing Week.

2,000 Seattle teachers unite in solidarity with #BlackLivesMatter.

Obama and Kimmel: Waking up.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 333 electoral votes	Mean of 205 electoral votes

About 40 new polls have been released since my previous analysis a week ago. Sec. Hillary Clinton was winning with near certainty and up 338 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 200 electoral votes.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,925 times and Trump wins 75 times. Clinton received (on average) 333 to Trump’s 205 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.01% probability of winning.

A few states have shown some interesting changes since last week.

• Arizona: Trump’s long non-winning streak is broken with a new Trump+1% poll that reduces Clinton’s chances of winning the state from 79% to 74%.

  

• Florida: Most recent polls have had Clinton up by a small margin, but this week we get a large Remington poll that has the state tied and a Bloomberg poll that has Trump up +2%. As a result, Clinton drops from a 93% chance of winning the state last week to an 85% chance of winning the state this week.

  

• Iowa: Trump has led in most polls, but one recent poll has Clinton up by +0.6%. Trump’s chances have dropped from 79% to 71%.

  

• Louisiana: Two new polls have Trump up by double digits, moving him from 94% to 100% chance of winning the state.
• North Carolina: Clinton has led in all recent polls, until a large Remington poll put Trump up by +3%. Clinton’s chances driop from 88% to 80%.

  

• Ohio: The most recent polls have Trump up by small margins. This has shifted Ohio from a 65% probabilitiy of a Trump win to a 89% probability.

  

• South Dakota: Last week we only had an old poll that had Trump up by double digits, giving Trump a certain win. A new Maxon-Dixon poll has Trump up by +7%, but the small size of the poll means that Trump’s chances are pegged at 89% new.
• Texas: We have only 2 current polls and Trump has tiny margins (+3% and +4%). Trump’s chances have dropped from 96% to 86% as a result.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 27 Oct 2015 to 27 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

We’re in the final weeks of the 2016 General Elections and the ballots have dropped win Washington state. Isn’t this a good time for a drink? The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for an evening of politics over a pint.

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern beginning about 8pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other 188 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

I’ve largely neglected local and statewide races this election season. No particular reason, although I haven’t felt that the Republican candidates in the Senate and Gubernatorial races have run particularly strong campaigns.

I guess it isn’t too late though. And today’s Elway poll piqued my interest in the Gubernatorial race. The race matches up Gov. Jay Inslee (D) against challenger Bill Bryant (R).

The poll, conducted from 20 Oct. to 22 Oct on 502 likely voters has a margin of error of 4.5%. Of the 502 respondents, 452 are either for Inslee or Bryant. Inslee received 256 “votes” (51.0%) and Bryant received 196 “votes” (39.0%), with Other or Undecided at 50 “votes” (10.0%). When we normalize the results to just Inslee and Bryant “votes,” Inslee gets 56.6% and Bryant gets 43.4%

I did a Monte Carlo simulation of 1,000,000 simulated elections. The final tally gave Inslee 975,893 wins and Bryant 22,276 wins. In other words, if an election was held now, we would expect Inslee to win with a 97.8% probability, and Bryant with a 2.2% probability.

The probability distribution of electoral vote outcomes pretty much tells the story:

The previous poll, by Strategies 360 taken from 29 Sep to 3 Oct, gave similar results. The poll surveyed 500 individuals (4.4% MOE) and found Inslee at 50% to Bryant’s 40%, with 10% undecided.

With two weeks to go and ballots already being returned, it seems like Inslee is quite likely to serve a second term.

Stephen helps Obama polish his résumé.

John Oliver: Third Parties.

Captain Khan:

Alternatino: An interview with Mussolini.

Colbert: Julian Assange cannot leak any more emails.

Minute Physics: How entropy powers the earth.

The 2016 Alt-Right Sexual Predator Show:

• Trevor: Donald Drumpf’s rigged election talk
• The apprentice speaks.
• Fareed Zakaria interviews Bill Maher On Drumpf and his Teabagger deplorables.
• Minorities for Drumpf: I Hope He Loses.
• Kimmel: Drunk Donald Drumpf on sitting alone
• Olbermann: You’re lying to yourself if you think Drumpf is the answer.
• Randy Rainbow interviews Melinia Drumpf.:

• PsychoSuperMom: How the boys talk.
• Donald Trump: Blue Falcon
• Stephen: Dead voters have chosen their candidate.
• Keith Olbermann: These insane excuses from Drumpf’s surrogates are deplorable
• Trevor: Between the scenes–The evolution of Pussygate
• Young Turks: Roger Ailes bails on Drumpf campaign.
• Kimmel: “Not the Donald Drumpf that I know.”
• Bill Maher: Fallout from pussygate
• Stephen: Melania Drumpf blames everyone but Donald for his locker room talk
• Obama to Drumpf: Stop your fucking whining!
• Drumpf’s new Washington Monument.
• Olbermann: The secret trick to decoding everything Donald Drumpf says
• Stephen: Jorge Ramos wants you to know what makes Drumpf so dangerous
• Red State Update: These Rednecks Hate Drumpf
• Young Turks: The launch of DrumpfTV
• Thom: The danger of Drumpf’s “election rigging” talk
• Donald Drumpf’s first 100 days.
• Newzoids: Donald Drumpf wrestling
• Stephen: Drumpf admits he’ll probably whine more if he loses

Mental Floss: 26 facts about the science of family.

A Woman’s Guide to the White House.

Kimmel’s week in unnecessary censorship.

Colbert: Pretty much everybody was on Hillary Clinton’s list of potential VPs.

Bill Maher: A bone to pick with undecided voters.

This is Your Debate on Drugs:

• Bad Lip Reading: Presidential Slam Poetry:

• James Corden: Debate drug testing.
• Did Hillary debate on steroids?
• Colbert: Nate Silver explains just how bad Drumpfs night was.
• Daily Show: Donald Drumpf hints at a not-so-peaceful transfer of power
• Hillary drops the mic
• Olbermann: Donald Drumpf must withdraw. Here’s why.
• Weird Al autotunes the dabate: Bad Hombres, Nasty Women:

• James Cordon: The last debate….
• Kimmel: Drumpf’s interruptions.
• Red State Update reviews the 3rd Presidential Debate.
• David Pakman: Trump beats Clinton in 3rd debate—37 to 4 lies
• Hillary Clinton on the Supreme Court.
• Jonathan Mann: Nasty Woman vs. Bad Hombre
• Stephen reacts to the 3rd Presidential debate.
• The Daily Show: The final debate:

• Kimmel kids out-of-focus group.

White House: West Wing Week.

On October surprises.

Stephen considers fleeing America.

Undecided voters.

Ohio for President.

Kimmel: A message from Canada to America.

Trevor: Clinton’s leaked emails.

Robert Reich: How Democrats take back the Senate.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Clinton	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 338 electoral votes	Mean of 200 electoral votes

The analysis on Monday showed Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump with a greater than 99.9% probability of winning an election held now, and with a mean electoral vote of 338 for Clinton to 200 for Trump.

We’ve gotten about 49 new polls since then. A Monte Carlo analysis with 100,000 simulated elections has Clinton winning all 100,000 times. In an election held now, Clinton would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.01% probability of winning. Clinton received (on average) 338 to Trump’s 200 electoral votes.

In other words, even with plenty of new polls, the race has stabalized.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 20 Oct 2015 to 20 Oct 2016, and including polls from the preceding 21 days (FAQ).

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Okay…here we go. Debate three has the potential to be insane. Please discuss.

[5:45] We have CNN on at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern. The banner says “BREAKING: Debate to start momentarily”. “Breaking”??? I don’t think so.

6:05: Play ball!

6:08: “My opponent said bad things about me and millions of people.” What the fuck is Trump babbling about. The question is about the Supreme Court!

6:10: Oooohhhh…he is talking about a Justice (bad audio here). Still…totally off-track to bring this up. Make him look petty as fuck.

We’re at the point in the campaign where Alec Baldwin looks more like Trump than Trump

— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) October 20, 2016

Right now Justice Scalia is in Heaven telling the Virgin Mary what she can & can't do with her own body. #Debatenight #SXM121

— John Fugelsang (@JohnFugelsang) October 20, 2016

“dozens of toddlers injure themselves, even kill people with guns.” – HRC, standing next to angry giant toddler.

— Karoli (@Karoli) October 20, 2016

6:19: Except for Trumps little tangent about Ginsburg, this is a pretty ordinary debate. Oops…Trump’s turn.

If Trump knew doctors other than Dr. Bongwater, he'd know "ripping a baby from the womb" in the 9th month is called CHILDBIRTH. #debatenight

— shauna (@goldengateblond) October 20, 2016

6:22: We have The Sniff.

6:24: Please, Hillary, no anecdotes.

6:25: Hillary is starting to troll Trump. Waiting for a Trump Sniff…er…meltdown.

6:27: Trump Tower built with undocumented workers–Clinton trolls again. Trump keeps it under control.

6:30: Wallace gets pissed at Clinton and he abandons his impartial role and points out her with bank speaker fees. Pathetic!

6:32: Donald is starting to go CRAZY with the SNIFFS! He’s rattled! Point Clinton!

6:33: Trump goes NUTZ!!!

6:35: Trump claims Clinton has been outsmarted worse than anyone ever. Of course…she beating him….

6:36: Clinton trolls over nuclear codes…Sniffles to follow.

6:37: Chris Wallace should ask candidates about their views instead of stating their views…

"I never made out with Putin." "Nobody ever said you did, Mr. Trump." "Because I didn't. And I don't even want to!"

— Seth Mnookin (@sethmnookin) October 20, 2016

6:40: Why does Trump deny knowing his “stablemate”, Putin?

Hillary mentioned that Trump used illegal workers to build Trump Tower. It's true, as @NickKristof wrote https://t.co/9kAb4cCpAI #debate

— NYT Opinion (@nytopinion) October 20, 2016

6:42: True fact: In 2008, Clinton stated in a debate against Obama, that she would renegotiate NAFTA.

HRC: Let me translate that if I can; DJT: You can't. I agree w/ DJT – that was incomprehensible. But if anyone can, it's HRC #Debate

— Michael Maddux (@michaeljmaddux) October 20, 2016

"Mr. Trump, how's your day?"
TRUMP: I don't know Putin! I've never met Putin! HE'S NOT MY BEST FRIEND!
"…"
"[sobbing] YOU'RE the puppet!"

— Adam Conover (@adamconover) October 20, 2016

6:47: Trump, “I pass factories”. Yep…Big Asshole!

6:49: Clinton trolls Trump again with shipping jobs to Mexico. He sniffs.

Uh, no, those sexual assault allegations have not been debunked. Saying "wrong!" is not debunking. #debate

— Boo-is Frightsman (@LouisPeitzman) October 20, 2016

6:57: “Nobody has more respect for women than I do.” The pub breaks out laughing.

6:58 Trump claims Clinton lied “hundreds of times to the FBI”. *SNIFF* I think that means he is lying.

HILLARY DESTROYING MAN-BABY TRUMP. Trump taking the bait every time. #debate #debatenight

— The Daily Edge (@TheDailyEdge) October 20, 2016

7:05: Clinton brings out the big guns, “…hasn’t released his tax returns.”

7:06: “Built with Chinese steel.” Ouch!

7:07: Concession question: Trump, “I’ll look it at the time” Totally disqualifying.

7:09: Trump: Clinton is guilty of a crime. Umm…no she isn’t. We have a constitutionally defined process for making this determination.

7:10: Trump (on no Emmy): “I should-a gotten it!” #whiner #wanker #notserious

Clinton hitting hard on list of things Trump has said are rigged: FBI, Iowa caucuses, Emmys. Trump: "Shoulda gotten it."

— Emily Flitter (@FlitterOnFraud) October 20, 2016

This IS a reality show. Will Trump concede the election? "I will keep you in suspense."

— James Oliphant (@jamesoliphant) October 20, 2016

"Well, that is horrifying," says Hillary, when Trump refuses to agree to a peaceful transition of power if he loses. #Debates2016

— Ashley Parker (@AshleyRParker) October 20, 2016

7:14: Fortunately, concession is a mere courtesy. It is totally unnecessary, although it sends a terrible message to the people.

7:17: Clinton points out Trump supported Iraq. He barks “wrong” twice in the exact same place he did last debate!!!

7:18: Clinton trolls Trump until he just blows up! Starts babbling.

7:19: Okay…now Trump is debating Chris Wallace. Cool.

"Let's turn to Aleppo."

Somewhere in New Mexico, Gary Johnson scowls and crushes an empty kombucha bottle. #debate

— daveweigel (@daveweigel) October 20, 2016

7:20: 🎼 ♫ If you’ve ever seen Aleppo clap your hands. ♪

Quite the difference in how Wallace addresses them. To HRC: some tough policy qs. To DJT: a summer-school teacher with a kid high on glue.

— Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) October 20, 2016

7:26: I wonder if Trump thinks GDP stands for “Good Damn P***Y”

7:27: “…and the unicorns will, once again, roam the great plains.”

Trump needed a big win tonight in this debate, instead, he looked like a little boy. Congratulations Madam President! #DebateNight #Debate

— Left Out Loud (@LeftOutLoud) October 20, 2016

7:31 :Trump has no clue about the issues facing Social Security.

7:32: Trump says he is happy that health insurance premiums are going up. #gofuckyourself

Things Donald Trump has called rigged. Also, in related news, I know you are but what am I. #growupDonald #debatenight pic.twitter.com/NhYd0AgmIh

— Bros4Hillary (@Bros4Hillary) October 20, 2016

7:37: Trump: “All she has done is talk to THE African Americans” #ThatsHowRacistsTalk

Conclusion: all anyone is going to talk about is Donald’s refusal to commit to concession. But the fact is, this is the least important thing about this debate. Concession is a tradition, but has no legal or constitutional meaning. It is just a convention and courtesy. The only person who will suffer from a lack of concession will be Mr. Trump.

I hope the media and social media gets past this and talks about important things.

"No one respects women more than I do" Later says 'Such a nasty woman' #DebateNight pic.twitter.com/c9bU3G7o6o

— FashionweekNYC (@FashionweekNYC) October 20, 2016

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for an evening of conversation and political debate over drinks. We start at 8:00pm.

And then come back on Wednesday night for another episode of Crazy Guy pretends to be a Presidential Candidate. That’s right, we’ll be getting together to watch the third Presidential Debate. It starts at 6:00pm.

We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern.

For Wednesday’s debate, please note that the audio of the debate may not be perfect. We expect that almost every TV in the joint will be on the debate, but there will be cheers and jeers and all the other sounds of a working pub. If you really must hear every word, consider bringing a radio and headphones.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other Living Liberally meetings happening over the next week. There are 185 chapters, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.