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Poll Analysis: Clinton’s lead holds for now

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Clinton
Trump
79.2% probability of winning
20.8% probability of winning
Mean of 288 electoral votes
Mean of 250 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Since my previous analysis, nearly 50 new state head-to-head polls have been released in the match-up between Sec. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. (Actually, many more state head-to-head polls have been released, but they are based on internet samples, so they don’t qualify by the rules for poll inclusion.) The polls were all taken before and just up to the first debate on Monday night. Subsequent analysis will reveal what effect, if any, the first debate may have had on the race.

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 79,245 times and Trump wins 20,755 times (including the 1,915 ties). Clinton received (on average) 288 to Trump’s 250 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 79.2% probability of winning and Trump would have a 20.8% probability of winning. This is a tiny bump in probability (+0.3%) for Clinton relative to last week.

In Colorado, four new polls have been added that give a tiny bump to Trump. He went from a 48.8% chance last week to a 51.4% chance now. The state is, essentially, tied. The polling history, suggests a real change in Trump’s favor over the past three months.

clintontrump29aug16-29sep16colorado

New polls in Maine confirm what we already knew. Clinton would likely win now, but CD-1 would go to Clinton and CD-2 would go to Trump.

A new poll in Minnesota brings some certainty to that state. Clinton went from an 88% probability of taking the state last week to 95% this week.

We finally have our first polling for Nebraska’s congressional districts. NE-1 and 3 are solidly Trump. NE-2, which went for Obama in 2008, doesn’t look like it will split off from the rest of the state this election, with an 84% probability of going to Trump right now.

This week we gain three new North Carolina polls and lose two older ones. The three new polls favor Clinton, so the state has gone from 68.7% probability for Trump last week to a 52.2% chance for Clinton this week. North Carolina is tied.

clintontrump29aug16-29sep16north-carolina

With the loss of two, and the gain of three Ohio polls, Trump edges up from 90.3% to a 94.6% chance of taking the state.

Washington finally gets a new poll, and it is surprisingly close. The evidence suggests Clinton would only take the state now with an 87.7% probability. Even so, Trump has yet to win a Washington state poll.

clintontrump29aug16-29sep16washington

Finally, Wisconsin loses two old polls and gains a new one. The race looks surprisingly close with Clinton dropping from an 98.4% to a 90.8% chance of taking the state. As with Washington, Trump has yet to win a Wisconsin poll. The race does seem to tighten up in recent weeks.

clintontrump29aug16-29sep16wisconsin

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Live Blogging the First Presidential Debate

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Okay…the debate is about to begin. Have at it in the comment threads. I’ll post my nuggets of wisdom from the folks at Drinking Liberally and from Twitter.

[6:05] Opening topic: reducing income inequality in a period of low unemployment.
Clinton: Invest, invest, invest.
Drumpf: CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!

Trump claims that U.S. doesn’t have the largest, most sophisticated manufacturing facilities in the world. Ummm…Mr. Trump, ever hear of Boeing’s plant in Everett? Largest in the world.

[6:13] Drumpf, “The U.S. doesn’t know what it is doing” in manufacturing. Unbelievable!

[6:14] Drumpf is starting to fall apart already, with his little aside to Clinton.

[6:15] Drumpf’s import tax bring to mind Bill Murray’s famous SNL lounge skit: “Trade Wars / If they had made wars / Let there be trade wars / ooohhh oh yeah.

[6:19] Again and again, Drumpf tells us what we “have to do” without any concrete proposals.

[6:20] Clinton successfully holds off Drumpf’s attempt at disruption.

[6:21] Hello? Moderators?

[6:26]: Drumpf completely LOST IT! “No wonder you have been fighting ISIS your entire life.” ISIS didn’t even exist when she last held a government position.

[6:33]: Drumpf has an audit conspiracy.

[6:39]: “We spent 6 trillion dollars in the middle east” and we didn’t even take all of their oil….

[6:40]: Clinton may have used a private email server, but at least she paid her IT subcontractors.

[6:43]: Drumpf has calmed down, but is having trouble focusing.

[6:44]: Drumpf things Hillary is afraid to say “law and order”. WTF?!?

[6:48]: Drumpf is rattling off endorsements. What’s next, poll numbers?

[6:50]: Donald Trump wants to take guns away…from dark-skinned people.

[6:52]: Clinton makes a passionate argument for justice reform. Trump’s response, “she won’t law and order!” and “stop and frisk!”

[7:00]: Dear @realDonaldTrump Obama produced the standard Hawaii birth certificate in 2008.

[7:12]: DJT uses “Cyber” incorrectly. Clearly new to the word. Norbert Weiner spins in his grave.

[7:15]:Drumpf blames Obama/Clinton for leaving Iraq. You know…the withdrawal that was set up by Bush’s failure to come to an agreement with Iraq.

[7:22]: At the end of a crazy, defensive tyrade, “I have better judgement than her.”

[7:24]: Trump is sniffling a lot. Is he well enough to be President?????????

[7:26]: Clinton’s “caviler attitude about nuclear weapons” segment was potent.

[7:27]: Holy shit. @realDonaldTrump understanding of defending other countries amounts to gangster movies.

[7:33]: Clinton’s strategy: say something clear. Let Drumpf babble.

[7:35]: No shit on Clinton’s statement on stamina. Look at her freaking schedule while SOS! Brutal travel and meeting schedule.

Debate Watching Parties and the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally

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DLBottle

The first presidential debate will take place Monday between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. There are a few liberal debate-watching parties you might want to join. Here are the ones I know about:

And on Tuesday, plan on joining us for our regularly-scheduled Drinking Liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. We start around 8:00pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle on Tuesday? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. On Tuesday, the Tri-Cities chapter also meets. On Wednesday, the Burien and North Spokane chapters meet. The Woodinville chapter meets on Thursday. And the following Monday, the Yakima and South Bellevue chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Roll Call: Government shutdown looms.

Stephen with Michelle Obama: Imitating Barack.

Keith Olbermann interviews Press Sec. Josh Earnest on the debate and the stakes of the race: PART I and PART II.

Kimmel on presidential debate topics.

The 2016 Racist, Sexist, Homophobic, All-Around-Great-Hater Clown Show:

Adam Ruins Everything: Trophy hunting can be good for animals?

Samantha Bee: Chief Executive fear mongerer: PART I and PART II

Kimmel: Unnecessary Censorship—Obama Edition.

Stephen with Michelle Obama on political spouses.

Hillary Makes History:

Secret Service won’t let Stephen see FLOTUS.

Thom: Open source voting explained.

Samantha Bee: The week in HUH? Super delegate-lobbyists.

Susie Sampson: Picking between gays and Muslims.

Mel Brooks pranks Obama.

Thom: Here’s who’s being eliminated from the voter roles.

Mental Floss: 31 weird discontinued products.

John Oliver: The refugee crisis.

Sam Seder: OMG! Christie knew about Bridgegate.

This Week in Cops Killing Black People:

White House: West Wing Week.

Jimmy Dore: Reince Priebus worn out after months of turd-polishing:

Sam Seder: NC Rep. says Charlotte protesters “Hate White people because White people are successful & they’re not”.

Taco Truck Guy on typical Mexicans.

Bill Maher with a New Rule: Bring civility back to politics.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Senate still red, but Democrats chip away

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
29.5% prob. of a majority
70.5% prob. of a majority
Mean of 49 seats
Mean of 51 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The Democrats would still be unlikely to take the Senate in an election held today. Nevertheless the Republicans have lost ground since the previous analysis. Ten days ago Democrats had an 11.8% chance of taking the Senate. Today their chances are nearly 30%.

After 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 4934 times, there were 24613 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 70453 times. Democrats have a 29.5% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 70.5% probability of controlling the Senate. This analysis assumes that the Vice President will be a Democrat.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:*

  • 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 29.5%, Republicans control the Senate 70.5%.
  • Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 49.0 ( 1.0)
  • Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 51.0 ( 1.0)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 49 (47, 51)
  • Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 51 (49, 53)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

  • Democratic seats w/no election: 35
  • Independent seats w/no election: one
  • Republican seats w/no election: 30
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: nine
  • Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 20
  • Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: one
  • Contested Republican seats likely to switch: four

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

Threshold Safe + Strong + Leans + Weak
Safe Democrat 43
Strong Democrat 3 46
Leans Democrat 3 3 49
Weak Democrat 0 0 0 49
Weak Republican 1 1 1 51
Leans Republican 0 0 50
Strong Republican 7 50
Safe Republican 43

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

# Sample % % Dem Rep/th>
State @ polls size Dem Rep % wins % wins
AL 0 0 (0) (100)
AK 0 0 (0) (100)
AZ 2 1389 45.2 54.8 0.5 99.5
AR 2 1142 36.9 63.1 0.0 100.0
CA 3 1966 62.8 37.2 100.0 0.0
CO 3 1377 55.0 45.0 99.5 0.5
CT 1 872 61.7 38.3 100.0 0.0
FL 8 4619 46.6 53.4 0.0 100.0
GA 6 2849 40.5 59.5 0.0 100.0
HI 0 0 (100) (0)
ID 0 0 (0) (100)
IL 2 1023 52.0 48.0 81.1 18.9
IN 1 504 52.4 47.6 77.2 22.8
IA 4 2294 44.4 55.6 0.0 100.0
KS 1 495 40.4 59.6 0.2 99.8
KY 1& 440 43.2 56.8 2.1 97.9
LA 1 794 34.6 65.4 0.0 100.0
MD 2 1019 68.6 31.4 100.0 0.0
MO 3 2530 47.2 52.8 2.6 97.4
NV 5 2843 48.3 51.7 9.3 90.7
NH 6 3450 49.8 50.2 43.5 56.5
NY 1 671 72.1 27.9 100.0 0.0
NC 9 6027 48.8 51.2 9.0 91.0
ND 0 0 (0) (100)
OH 7 4656 42.0 58.0 0.0 100.0
OK 0 0 (0) (100)
OR 1 403 55.1 44.9 92.5 7.5
PA 7 4143 50.8 49.2 78.3 21.7
SC 1& 941 38.4 61.6 0.0 100.0
SD 0 0 (0) (100)
UT 1& 678 27.9 72.1 0.0 100.0
VT 1 544 62.3 37.7 100.0 0.0
WA 1& 430 60.5 39.5 99.9 0.1
WI 6 3830 55.2 44.8 100.0 0.0

@ Current party in office
& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
*Analysis assume that the two independent candidates will caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

Poll Analysis: New gains for Trump

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Clinton
Trump
78.9% probability of winning
21.1% probability of winning
Mean of 288 electoral votes
Mean of 250 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Last week’s analysis had Sec. Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 309 EVs to 229 EV, and gave Clinton a 96.2% chance of winning an election held then.

About 25 new polls have been released since then, and Trump has made further gains. Now, a Monte Carlo analysis of head-to-head polls gives Clinton 78,889 wins and Trump 21,111 wins (including the 2,468 ties) out of 100,000 simulated elections. Clinton received (on average) 288 to Trump’s 250 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 78.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a 21.1% probability of winning.

Here are a few notes for individual states.

There isn’t a lot of good news for Clinton, but in Arizona, an old Trump+5% poll aged out, leaving a series of much closer polls. Consequently, Trump’s probability of winning the state has dropped from 92.5% to only 80.5%.

Something similar has happened in Florida. A clear outlier poll with Clinton up +14% has aged out, and we have two new polls. The tally has Clinton leading 3 and Trump leading 3 with one tie. The net result is that we went from Clinton with a 82% probability of taking the state last week to a 59% chance of Trump taking the state this week. Florida is a toss-up.

In Maine a new SurveyUSA poll gives us verification that Maine’s 2nd CD is strongly for Trump, while the 1st CD is strongly for Clinton. The CDs would split in an election held now. Overall, however, Clinton would take the state.

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Minnesota has Clinton at +6% over Trump. Still, the small size of the poll means that Clinton’s chances are pegged at 88%. The longer polling history suggests Clinton would easily take the state.

clintontrump22aug16-22sep16minnesota

Nevada has flipped. We have five current polls, and Trump has small leads in the last four polls. Last week we gave Clinton a 63% chance of winning Nevada. Now Trump has a 68% chance. Clearly, Nevada is a swing state.

clintontrump22aug16-22sep16nevada

North Carolina has flipped as well. Clinton had a tenuous lead last week, with a 58% chance of taking the state. With three new polls that all go to Trump, the GOP nominee now has a 69% chance of winning the state.

clintontrump22aug16-22sep16north-carolina

Ohio has strengthened for Trump on account of a new Trump+5% poll. Trump has led in the past 5 polls, raising his chances from 78% last week to 90% this week.

clintontrump22aug16-22sep16ohio

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 22 Sep 2015 to 22 Sep 2016, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Trump is now in his strongest position of the entire election cycle, even though his chances of winning are about 1 in 5. This change reflects what we have seen in the national polls a week or two ago. Since these analyses rely on state polls, there is a lag as new polls come in and old polls drop out. The next week will be interesting to see if and where Trump “maxes out”, as Clinton seems to be recovering from her bad streak of national polls.

An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle

The Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally meets tonight. Please join us for an evening of conversation and political debate (preparation) over drinks.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight, the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Finally, next Monday, the Shoreline chapter meets.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Stephen with a polite reminder about polls.

Samantha Bee: “Asking” the “tough” questions: Part I and Part II.

Thom: Why won’t the media push back on liar think tanks & experts.

Jim Earl: An obituary for televangelist Jan Crouch.

The 2016 Sexist, Racist Clown Show:

Stephen with some North Korean leader nukes sarcasm.

Susie Sampson chats with a (rather deplorable) White Supremacist.

James Corden: Political monologue.

Seth Meyers: Dammit! Wells Fargo.

Samantha Bee: Outfoxed by FOX.

Thom: A post-factual world.

Hillary

Daily Show with outrage court: Patriotism vs. Protest

White House: West Wing Week.

Seth Meyers: Don’t forget to vote!

Conan with a political monologue.

Jimmy Kimmel: Drunk Rudy Giuliani.

Colbert does Trevor Noah Part I and Part II.

Thom: How Higher Education is being folded into the Libertarian movement.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Trump Makes Gains

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Clinton
Trump
96.2% probability of winning
3.8% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes
Mean of 229 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

I’m buried this week, so this report will be brief. Let me first mention that I usually send out Tweets from @hominidviews with each poll I add to the database, and include a graph of the recent polling for the state. I also announce new analyses there, and sometimes offer quick previews when I don’t have time to do a full analysis. So follow me at @hominidviews for these updates.

Last week Donald Trump had made small gains over Sec. Hillary Clinton. Plenty of new polls have come—about 35—and many of these polls were conducted during at least part of Clinton’s “bad week.” Not surprisingly, Trump makes gains.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 96,242 times and Trump wins 3,758 times (including the 702 ties). The previous analysis had Clinton winning almost 100% of the simulated elections. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 96.2% probability of winning and Trump would have a 3.8% probability of winning.

Clinton received (on average) 309 to Trump’s 229 electoral votes. This is substantially down from the 340 Clinton had last week, but still above the 270 threshold needed to win.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Poll Analysis: Senate Prognosis

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Senate Democrats*
Senate Republicans
11.8% probability of a majority
88.2% probability of a majority
Mean of 49 seats
Mean of 51 seats

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

An analysis of state head-to-head polls in Senate races suggests that Republicans would most likely control the Senate if the election was to be held today. Democrats have made small improvements since my previous analysis in July.

After 100000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 1239 times, there were 10566 ties), and Republicans control the Senate 88195 times. Democrats have a 11.8% probability of controlling the Senate and Republicans have a 88.2% probability of controlling the Senate. This is only up slightly from the previous analysis. Where Democrats have gained is in the number of expected seats, going from 48.2 (on average) to 48.5. The median number of seats remains at 48.

A few states warrant comment.

The Arizona race has gone in Sen. John McCain’s (R) favor. He was at a 76% chance in July; now he is nearly at 100%. That said, the polling show great variability, so Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick may not be down for the count just yet.

senate13aug16-13sep16arizona1

Nothing has changed in Illinois, in the seat held by Republican Mark Kirk. Democrat Tammy Duckworth only has a 38% chance of winning, but the polling is old and (possibly an outlier). Illinois may well be a pick-up, but we don’t have good, recent polling to say so.

senate13aug16-13sep16illinois2

Last July, U.S. Representative Baron Hill (D) withdrew from the Indiana Senate race to make room for former U.S. Senator Evan Bayh (D). That changed the nature of the race. The state is now widely considered a Democratic pick-up.

Missouri was nearly a toss-up in July. Now it is solid for Republican Roy Blunt. Democrat Jason Kander only wins 22 the 100,000 simulated elections.

senate13aug16-13sep16missouri2

In Nevada, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto was leading Republican Joe Heck with a 67% probability of winning in July. Alas, the polling since then has favored Heck, and the Republican now has a 91% of winning an election now. Still, most of the polls are extremely close.

senate13aug16-13sep16nevada1

New Hampshire’s incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte has been in the fight for her life against Democrat Maggie Hassan. In July, the race was tied up. And, the fact is, Hassan leads in most polls. But one strong recent poll gives Ayotte the edge with a 78% probability of winning right now.

senate13aug16-13sep16new_hampshire2

In Ohio, Democrat Ted Strickland has been slowly losing ground to incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R). The graph says it all:

senate13aug16-13sep16ohio2

Pennsylvania was red in the previous analysis. But Sen. Pat Toomey (R) has been slipping to Democrat Katie McGinty, and the Democrat now has an 87% chance of winning now.

senate13aug16-13sep16pennsylvania2

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:*

[Read more…]

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottlePlease join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening over the next week. Tonight, the Federal Way, Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Thursday, the Tacoma, Bremerton, and Spokane chapters meet. And on Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Seth Meyers: Political things that actually happened.

Jimmy Dore: FAUX News media critic doesn’t understand they are GOP propaganda outlet.

Mental Floss: 26 facts about magic tricks.

Stephen: Obama’s weekend of insults.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

How to talk to a woman who suffers from headphones in ears.

The 2016 Alt-Right Clown Show:

Stephen with Captain Sully.

Mental Floss: Why do traffic jams occur?

Bill Maher: Future headlines.

Young Turks: Kaepernick National Anthem protest continues to grow.

Jim Earl: Obituary for conservative legend Phyllis Schlafly.

James Corden: Where is Dr. Ben Carson’s luggage?

What are think tanks?

Colbert’s one year anniversary remembered roasts.

Sam Seder plays Tim Heidecker’s “I Am a Cuck”

Hillary Makes History:

Slate: Everything you need to know about espresso.

PsychoSuperMom: Then You’re A Feminist.

Stephen on the forum and Matt Lauer.

Young Turks: Worst ad of 2016.

Seth Meyers and Michelle Obama give college freshman advice.

Trevor: Zika!

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Trump gains very slightly

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Clinton
Trump
>99.9% probability of winning
<0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 340 electoral votes
Mean of 198 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

There have only been 18 new polls since the analysis last week. (Actually, there have been a flood of polls done using internet panels, but I still refuse to include those polls.) Most notible among the polls is an Emerson poll from Maine that includes sub-polls for Maine’s two congressional districts. This is only the second pollster providing the CD breakdowns, and both have found the state split.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Sec. Hillary Clinton wins 99,991 times and Donald Trump wins 9 times. Clinton received (on average) 340 to Trump’s 198 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have less than 0.1% probability of winning. This is Trump’s best performance in months.

Over the past week, we have seen the national polls tighten up a bit. Even though most polling is done in swing states, it still takes some time for analyses based on state head-to-head polls to catch up with national polling. We should expect to see a shift toward Trump.

That said, the electoral map is still strongly favoring Clinton. It is difficult, right now, to see a path for Trump to achieve 269 EVs.

Here are a few state notes.

Georgia had five current polls for the previous analyses, but four have “aged-out” and now we have one current poll. As a result, the state has gone from 50.1% probability of Clinton taking the state to 52.7% for Trump. In other words, the state is still a dead tie.

clintontrump07aug16-07sep16georgia

In Iowa, one poll has aged out and two new polls have been added, one with Clinton up +2% and one with Trump up +5%. The net result is that Iowa has moved from 56.4% probability of Clinton winning the state in the last analysis to a 51% probability of Trump taking the state now. It is a toss-up.

clintontrump07aug16-07sep16iowa

The new Maine poll has moved Clinton chances of winning the state from 100% down to a 97.3% probability. Clinton’s chances in Maine’s 1st CD has gone from 97% to 99.9%. And in Maine’s 2nd CD, Trump’s chances have gone from 54% to a 76.2% probability of taking the state now.

This week we lose one Missouri poll and gain a new one with Trump up +9%. The net result is that the state goes from Trump winning with a 93.9% probability to a 99.6% probability of taking the state.

We have no new polls in Nevada this week, but one poll has aged out, moving Nevada from an 84.1% chance for Clinton to a 64.3% chance.

A surprisingly close new poll in New Jersey suggests that Trump has a 21.8% chance of taking the state. That said, Clinton has won every NJ poll to date.

clintontrump07aug16-07sep16new-jersey

In Ohio, two of last week’s five polls age out. This has moved Clinton’s chances down from 90% to an 82% chance of taking the state.

clintontrump07aug16-07sep16ohio

A new Rhode Island poll is surprisingly close. Trump now has gone from almost no chance of taking the state to a 30% chance. Still the polling overall favors Clinton.

clintontrump07aug16-07sep16rhode-island

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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DLBottle

As the summer comes to a close, we swing into full political season. So, please join us for discussion and a drink at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. All are welcomed—no extreme vetting or forced deportations involved.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight the Tri-Cities, Long Beach, and West Seattle chapters also meet. The Lakewood and Bellingham chapters meet on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Next Monday, the newly reactivated Shoreline chapter meets.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

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HA Commenting Policy

It may be hard to believe from the vile nature of the threads, but yes, we have a commenting policy. Comments containing libel, copyright violations, spam, blatant sock puppetry, and deliberate off-topic trolling are all strictly prohibited, and may be deleted on an entirely arbitrary, sporadic, and selective basis. And repeat offenders may be banned! This is my blog. Life isn’t fair.