HorsesAss.Org

NY-26 surprise

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With 462 of 627 precincts reporting, the AP has called it: Kathy Hochul (D) beats Jane Corwin (R).

Current tally is 48% Hochul (D) and 42% Corwin (R).

Update: President congratulates Hochul:

“I want to extend my congratulations to Congresswoman-elect Kathy Hochul for her victory in New York’s 26th Congressional District. Kathy and I both believe that we need to create jobs, grow our economy, and reduce the deficit in order to outcompete other nations and win the future. Kathy has shown, through her victory and throughout her career, that she will fight for the families and businesses in western New York, and I look forward to working with her when she gets to Washington.”

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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The Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally meets tonight, and there are a few topics likely to be raised over a pint:

DLBottle
So please join us tonight for drinks, conversation, and even dinner at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, some folks show up by 7:00 pm for dinner.



Can’t make it? The Burien chapter of Drinking Liberally will meet on Wednesday. And if that doesn’t work, there is an excellent chance you live close to one of the 227 other chapters of Drinking Liberally.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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A Very Special Saturday:

ONN: Cashstrapped PBS releases Nova special “Physics Behind Rhythmically Bouncing Breasts” (and other news).

Thom: Indiana guts the 4th Amendment.

Newt Self-Nukes:

Liberal Viewer: Killing Bin Laden UnChristian, Illegal?

Thom: No, Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL), we DID NOT cut our way out of our last deficit!

Pap: Debunking Republican “common sense”.

The Huckster Defers:

Thom: The latest on the Republican war on Democracy.

Young Turks: Conservative talk radio is dead.

Ann Telnaes: Speaker Boehner’s no tax increase for the rich.

“I’m Fired!”

Mark Fiore: Oil companies make America more American.

Thom v. Joe Hicks: Do liberals hate America?

The Sperminator:

Greenman: The “Temperature leads carbon” crock updated.

Obama thanks the intelligence community.

Obama on the Middle East:

Thom: The latest on the Republican war on Democracy.

Lawrence O’Donnell: Nutcase Bachmann’s presidential prospects.

Sam Seder: Supremes okay warrant-less searches.

Ann Telnaes: Romney’s market-driven health care system.

Koch Kontracts Konsidered:

Newsy: Rep. Giffords makes more progress.

Maddow: Santorum suggests McCain doesn’t understand torture!?!

Crazytown: Sarah Palin endorses Ryan budget.

Thom: C-Street gang ensnared in Ensign scandal.

George Takei takes on Tennessee’s “Don’t Say Gay” Bill:

Young Turks: Sarah Palin for 2010?

Maddow: “Kill Medicare” not working for G.O.P..

Pap: The BP oil spill, one year later.

Common Defense:

Ed: WI passes voter ID bill.

Maddow: Cheney’s book cover.

White House: West Wing Week.

Maddow: It’s okay to be Takei in Tennessee.

Thom: The Republican War on Art.

Young Turks: Santorum is the dumbest presidential candidate EVAR!

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll in the Washington state gubernatorial race

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Public Policy Polling has released polling results in the 2012 Washington state gubernatorial race. Their press release gets right to the point:

McKenna, Inslee basically tied for WA Gov.

[…]The most likely match up for Governor of Washington next year looks like it would be a barn burner, with Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna starting out with just a 40-38 lead over Democratic Congressman Jay Inslee. With 23% of Democrats and only 13% of Republicans undecided at this point that looks like a sheer toss up.

The main reason McKenna is ahead of Inslee at this point is slightly higher name recognition.

(The same poll finds Inslee beating Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA-08) handily, 42% to 36%.)

McKenna is the more recognized brand right now, with 60% of respondents having formed an opinion of him, whereas only 51% have formed an opinion on Inslee.

What I found interesting in the crosstabs is that, in a McKenna—Inslee match-up, groups likely to support Inslee have higher “uncertain” responses:

  • Liberals 31%, conservatives 28%
  • Women 25%, men 18%
  • Democrats 23%, Republicans 13%
  • 18-29 year olds 24%, about 13% for older voters

Thus it seems support for Inslee has the greater growth potential as name recognition improves.

Cantwell v. the mighty pool of the Washington state’s G.O.P. (party)

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I know…I shouldn’t pick on the pathetic. But I will anyway.

Two weeks ago, after an Elway poll came out with mixed news for Sen. Maria Cantwell, I did a preliminary assessment of Cantwell’s vulnerability to a Republican challenger. I didn’t find the minor weaknesses uncovered by the Elway poll overly concerning. The poll didn’t do head-to-head match-ups for a general election, but it did find 46% would vote to keep Cantwell in office, and 36% would vote to replace her—a result almost identical that at this point in the 2006 election cycle.  

My non-concern also reflected evidence from a much richer series of data from Survey USA’s regular tracking polls. They show Cantwell’s recent approval bouncing erratically from about 40% to 55%, with the most recent one at 49%.

Now Public Policy Polling has released a new poll that sheds more light on Cantwell’s lack of vulnerability. The poll finds her with 50% approval and 36 disapproval:

Cantwell is pretty universally well liked within her own party, at 80/7 with Democrats. She’s also on narrowly positive ground with independents at 44/40 and has a 17% approval rating with Republicans, which is a decent amount of crossover support (we generally found Patty Murray with a single digit approval with GOP voters over the course of last year’s campaign.)

The Republican who comes closest to Cantwell is an old favorite- Dino Rossi, who trails 53-40. Susan Hutchison and Dave Reichert do next best, both trailing by a 49-35 margin. Clint Didier trails 51-35 and Cathy McMorris Rodgers has the largest deficit at 50-31. Cantwell wins independent voters by 5-12 points in all of the match ups and picks up 8-9% of the Republican vote while only losing 2-5% of the Democratic vote.

Wow…a 17% approval with Republicans!

The head-to-head match-ups suggest that none of the Republican challengers can do any better against Cantwell than Mike McGavick’s dismal 39.9% result in 2006.

The bottom line:

Cantwell’s reasonably popular and the GOP doesn’t have anyone good to run against her.

This pretty much validates my statement from two weeks ago, “given the absence of a strong opponent on the horizon, I am simply unwilling to fret over a single Elway Poll….”

This new poll illuminates the state of the state Republicans: their candidate pool is nothing short of pathetic. There are almost no Republicans with any statewide appeal. Attorney General McKenna is about it, and he’s looking for opportunities elsewhere.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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Maddow: John Ensign OUT, Tom Coburn NEXT.

Stephen goes all flaggy on Donald Trump (via Slog).

Sam Seder: Teabaggers willing to trade debt limit for closeting gays.

Young Turks: Gov. Mitch Daniels de-funds Planned Parenthood.

Thom: Wisconsin Wingnuts rush to pass agenda.

Maddow: Republican social issues.

Pap w/Andy Kroll: Who is pushing the G.O.P. anti-labor agenda?

Obama Bin Gotten:

Thom interviews Gov. Jesse Ventura on various conspiracies.

Cenk debunks Rep. Boehner’s bullshit.

RapperGate:

Sam Seder: Conservatives vote their conscience ignorance.

Mike Huckabee “fixes” American History (via TalkingPointsMemo).

Torture Chronicles:

Thom on Florida’s latest War on Democracy.

SCTV: Skype gets Binged.

Newt the Kook:

Sam Seder: Congressional Wingdings back way off on destroying Medicare.

Ed and Pap: Boehner’s debt fight shows GOP’s greed.

Lawrence O’Donnell: The tragedy of Alaska’s Sarah Palin; The ‘Drilla From Wasilla’ is a hopeless ‘disasta’.

Delaware Gov signs civil unions bill into law.

Fracking:

Sam Seder: FCC Comish Baker hired by Comcast/NBCU after voting for Comcast/NBCU merger.

ONN Live: Congress debates new sex-based American dream.

Thom: Pima County Dems move to secede from Arizona.

Immigrants for sale (via OneGoodMove).

White House: West Wing Week.

Maddow: “Big Brother’s” War on Women in South Dakota.

Romney Runs…From His Own Record:

Maddow: Unemployment and how Florida GOP Gov. Rick Scott takes ‘Big Government’ to new heights.

Cenk: C-Street, The Family & Coburn’s Ensign cover-up.

If Atlas Shrugged trailer was honest (h/t Carl Ballard).

The Paul Family Circus:

Young Turks: Megan McCain’s PSA makes Glenn Beck vomit.

Maddow: “Family values” ex-Senator Rick Santorum covered for John Ensign.

Thom: Should the Koch brothers be making hiring decision for university professors?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Buh-bye presidential primary…

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…it was good getting to know ya.

Washington state will not have a presidential primary for the 2012 election season.

One part of me is sad. I mean…the 2008 primary was when I came out as a Republican—a ardent Mike Huckabee supporter. I really voted for him.

Even without a primary, there will be caucuses. I am not trying stir up troubles or anything, but is there any reason whatsoever for Democrats to show up and caucus? I mean, does anyone really believe there will be a credible challenger to President Obama? (NO, NOT YOU, crazy trollfuckwad…I’m asking the non-crazy readers.)

So…where you can really make a difference for America is to lend a hand to your Republican brethren at our caucuses. Admittedly, most of the Republicans showing interest in the office have some serious monkey on their backs (if not Santorum in their faces). I think we need your wise council. We’d appreciate the assistance.

So, who do you think should win the Republican nomination for President in 2012?

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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Why show up at Drinking Liberally tonight?

DLBottle
So please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but feel free to join some of us for an earlier dinner.



Not in Seattle? There is an excellent chance you live close to one of the 224 other chapters of Drinking Liberally.

HorsesAss turns seven

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HorsesAss is no longer a toddler…at seven, it has entered its childhood years.

It all started on May 10th, 2004, with a post titled Comedy is easy, politics is hard. (This is one of the rare instances where Goldy ended his title with a full stop.)

Last year, a reporter asked me why I thought so many people were willing to donate time and money to what was obviously a joke initiative. I glibly replied that politics was boring, and that my “horse’s ass” initiative gave people the opportunity to get involved, while having a little fun at the same time.

Washington state politics is particularly boring — oh not just because it’s full of numbers and legalese and the usual wonkish stuff like that — but because we happen to be blessed with some of the most boring politicians in the nation. There’s a reason a lying, thieving, blowhard like Tim Eyman commands so much media attention: he’s an interesting lying, thieving, blowhard.

Goldy goes on to explain how the relaunch of Horsesass.org as a blog was to create a playground for the puckish Goldy, rather than the serious (and somewhat boring) David:

Now I know some might find this split between the politically prankish Goldy and the politically earnest David a little arbitrary… or even weird. So to those upstanding members of the political and media establishment who insist I cannot possibly expect to maintain my credibility as an activist while producing an irreverent and outrageous blog, the Goldy half of me respectfully says: “fuck you.”

Of course, the David half of me effusively apologizes for what the Goldy half just said. There’s absolutely no excuse for that kind of language, and given the opportunity David might attempt to explain to this “haughty, humorless prick” (my words, not his) that he should excuse Goldy as a sort of stage persona, somewhat like Tim Eyman, who publicly portrays himself as a lying, thieving, blowhard, but who in the comfort of his own home, rarely steals anything. David might also privately intimate that Goldy has the emotional maturity of a 13-year-old, and amuses nobody but himself. Or perhaps that he’s insane.

(Or maybe just a tad bit schizophrenic?)

Ahhh…yes. Goldy’s first post and a fuckiferous one at that.

HorsesAss has definitely left its mark on politics, beginning with Goldy’s level-headed and prescient analysis of the Gubernatorial election contest, his investigative post on David Irons’ hands, the post about FEMA cronyism
that exposed the incompetence of the Bush administration and their response to Katrina, the sad story of former Commissioner of Public Lands Doug Sutherland’s well documented sexual harassment of a young DNR employee, and so much more.

Goldy now writes for The Stranger, which is good for Goldy, but maybe not so good for HorsesAss. Speaking for myself…politics and comedy can be damn hard! I know, I know…it shows.

These seven years have produced 9,270 posts, or an average yield of 3.6 posts per day. That’s a lot of bloviating and muckraking!

A defining characteristic of HA has been its comment threads. Early on, HA became a troll magnet, sucking up all of the natsy, stupid, lameass, or just downright crazy wingnut kookballs from the rest of the regional blogosphere (and beyond). Comment threads on other blogs around here were relatively clean as the nutcases got their excretory relief by repeatedly shitting in the HA comment threads.

To date there are about 479,200 comments, averaging a remarkable 52 comments per post. Clearly, the comment threads have served as a creative or emotional outlet for a great number of people beyond the trolls. As a writer, I do draw inspiration from the comment thread participants. Your thoughtful comments have enlightened me and helped me understand issues better. Though I am reluctant to admit it, I sometimes write for the trolls—usually to induce apoplexy cum froth. And my efforts are frequently rewarded with the intended reaction. So thank you readers, comment thread participants and even you asshole trolls!

The seventh Blogoversary of HorsesAss is a celebration for us all!

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

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VP Biden and Pres. Obama visit troops at Fort Campbell:

Pap and Ed: Dick Cheney helped Pakistani terrorists.

White House: Cinco de Mayo!

News on Wasserman Schultz’s election as DNC Chair.

Osama bin Gotten:

Newsy: The pat down heard around the world.

ONN: Predator drone cortmartialed for Afghani civilian deaths.

Pap with Brad Friedman: US Chamber — A modern day mafia.

Osama/Obama Gaffes:

Maddow: G.O.P. defends big oil subsidies.

Second City: Atlas Shrugged, Pt. II

Young Turks: Michele Bachmann blames Obama for her dumbass mistake.

Photo Finish:

O’Donnell: God & same-sex marriage.

Young Turks: G.O.P. abandons Ryan’s Medicare plan.

Sam Seder: Reagan raised taxes says Reagan’s budget director.

Second City: Obama 2012–NEW AD!:

Dems picked the right person.

ONN: Obama befriends rich elderly widow in hopes she will put nation in her will.

FAUX News boots G.O.P. presidential hopefulls

Pap: The Ayn Rand disease on America.

Torture Chronicles:

Thom: We are in the cancer stages of Reaganism.

White House: West Wing Week.

Sam Seder: Bush passes on ground zero invite.

The First G.O.P. Presidential Debate:

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Is Cantwell vulnerable?

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Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) is facing re-election and a new Elway poll takes the pulse of the electorate. Josh at Publicola writes.

First the bad news for U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell, who’s up for reelection next year: A new Elway poll finds her “Job Performance” rating at 52 percent “negative” to 42 percent “positive.” (It was nearly the exact opposite in 2005, also a year out from reelection, when her numbers were 52 positive vs. 38 negative.)

The good news?

The GOP doesn’t have any promising challengers. In Elway’s imaginary open primary against a batch of Republicans including: U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert; former KIRO TV anchor Susan Hutchison; Tea Party activist Clint Didier; and Port Commissioner Bill Bryant—Cantwell wins big with 47 percent of the vote.

And that pretty much guarantees Cantwell a spot on the November ballot.

You may recall that Cantwell beat Mike McGavick 56.9% to 39.9% in 2006. Clearly, she can do a lot worse in 2012 and still come out on top. And as flawed as McGavick was, it is not clear that the Republicans have anyone better in the wings. Let’s explore some other polling results for Cantwell in order to better frame the Elway poll.

Survey USA has collected a series of polls from May 2005 until the last poll taken from 16-18 April 2011:

Cantwell1

On May 10 of 2005, the first poll on the graph, Cantwell had an approval of 45% and a disapproval of 35%. The most recent poll has her at 49% approval to 40% disapproval. The spread is about the same, but her approval and disapproval are higher in the recent poll because there are fewer undecided folks now.

Clearly, after that May 2005 poll, Cantwell’s approval increased dramatically and stayed relatively high until the Summer of 2009. Since then Cantwell’s approval has been more volatile. Six of the last 20 polls since then show her with higher disapproval, but with an overall trend of a higher approval. And given the absence of a strong opponent on the horizon, I am simply unwilling to fret over a single Elway Poll….

Drinking Liberally — Seattle

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What are some of the conversations you are likely to hear at the Montlake Ale House tonight? Let’s see…

DLBottle

So please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but feel free to join some of us for an earlier dinner.

Not in Seattle? There is a good chance you live near one of the 223 other chapters of Drinking Liberally.

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It may be hard to believe from the vile nature of the threads, but yes, we have a commenting policy. Comments containing libel, copyright violations, spam, blatant sock puppetry, and deliberate off-topic trolling are all strictly prohibited, and may be deleted on an entirely arbitrary, sporadic, and selective basis. And repeat offenders may be banned! This is my blog. Life isn’t fair.