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Mmmmm…tastes like unborn baby!

by Darryl — Tuesday, 1/24/12, 11:30 pm

Day by day it gets harder to defend Republicans against the charge that they are collectively stark-raving mad. I don’t know why I try any more:

An Oklahoma lawmaker files a bill to ban the making and selling of food or products that use aborted human fetuses.

State Senator Ralph Shortey says he’s done research and found reports that companies have used stem cells in the research and development of food.
[…]

“There is a potential that there are companies that are using aborted human babies in their research and development of basically enhancing flavor for artificial flavors,” says [State Senator Ralph] Shortey.

Okay, so it’s not really insanity. You see, some of these “concerned” lawmaker types just haven’t yet learned how to filter truth from fiction, fact from rumor, science from made-up-shit-designed-to-freak-people-out that one occasionally comes across whilst doing “research” on the InnerTubes.

This reminds me of a previous State of the Union address where some stark-raving mad indiscriminate presidential speech writer slipped into the speech some InnerTube weirdness about the dangers of human animal hybrids.

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SOTU Open Thread

by Darryl — Tuesday, 1/24/12, 5:54 pm

Okay…I am stuck in traffic on Montlake. But I can, apparently drive and blog, so here is the thread. Enjoy the discussion while I enjoy the fragrence of car exhaust.

6:11: I made it to the Montlake Alehouse just in time for the start. Man…it took 30 minutes to drive from UW campus…a 20 minute walk….

6:15: This morning, Boehner was calling Obama un-American. This evening he has to introduce Obama to the entire nation. Awwwwwwkward.

6:18: Biden is doing a great job keeping that spot on his forehead stationary, while moving his head around it. Great party (and SOTU) trick!

6:19: Obama wears a red tie. Boehner wears a blue tie. This is the dawning of a new age of bipartisanship!

6:24: Even Boehner is being forced to clap (gingerly) at some of these tax ideas. Poor guy…it must hurt.

6:25: Eric Cantor is thinking, “Oh my God…we’re going to have to oppose this?!?”

6:34: Obama plots to get more young people into those institutes of liberal indoctrination…. Educated citizens == Bad for Republicans

6:35: Obama channels Rick Perry on illegal immigration. How can the Republicans not feel all warm and cozy inside?

6:39: Mitch McConnell was obviously heavily sedated prior to the SOTU address.

6:42: Republicans are all like, “boooooo…clean energy….bad, bad, bad.”

6:44: Watch…dollars to doughnuts, next week there is a house bill to prevent the military from investing in clean energy.

6:47: There Obama goes again, pandering to the “millions of innocent Americans”. What about the millions of guilty Americans????

6:49: Thanks, TV people, for that magnificent view of Holy Joe’s facial pores.

6:51: What kind of anti-American bastard is Boehner…he isn’t wearing a flaggy-flag pin!

6:55: Tax breaks for the wealthy or keep our investments? I wonder what Republicans would choose?

6:58: Obama argues for investing in the future. Yeah…like that is going to win over the selfish teabaggers.

7:01: Obama has a new theme…the divide between Washington D.C. and the rest of America. This could be a potent theme. But the follow-up was pretty weak. (I don’t think insider trading by congresscritters really highlights the problem.)

7:11: Joe Biden wipes away a small tear.

7:14: Obama uses graphical imagery to help us all live the assassination of Osama bin Laden.

It’s over. Obama was pretty much focusing on common (D & R) themes. “Send me bills and I’ll sign them.”

Now we can enjoy the Republican rebuttal followed by the Michele Bachmann second rebuttal….

7:29: Mitch Daniels seems angry. Given his approval ratings, I guess he has good reason to be angry.

7:30: “With a government as big and bossy as this one….” What a fucking pathetic whiner!

7:31: Gloom and Doom! What a pessimistic son-em-bitch.

7:32: Carl Ballard: “I’m surprised how political the speech is!”

7:33: “Being a businessman is the most noble of human pursuits”…which pretty much means that Mitch—the politician—is self-loathing.

7:35: Mitch Daniels looks like the very model of a modern undertaker.

7:38: Mitch criticizes “Obama” by quipping about freedom to choose the right light bulb. Apparently he doesn’t realize that the lightbulb thing was done by the BUSH administration…while he was director of the Office of Budget Management. What a fucking dolt!

Mitch Daniels gives the second worse Republican response. It will take generations to out bad Bobby Jindal. But damn he tried.

7:52: There seems to be a live Tarantula on Mitt Romney’s head!

7:53: Did anyone notice that both Mitch Daniels and Mitt Romney have defaced flaggy-flag pins on? There is a big blotch in the middle of the stripes. Some say, communists do that.

7:57: Poor Mitt…all those millions and he still cannot keep his hair under control…

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Special State of the Union Drinking Liberally

by Darryl — Tuesday, 1/24/12, 3:40 pm

DLBottleIt’s State of the Union season. So please join us this evening for a State of the Union under the influence edition of Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Our normal starting time is 8:00 pm, but this week we start at 6:00 pm to catch the start of the SOTU address.

Of course we will be live-blogging the SOTU address from Drinking Liberally, so if you cannot make it to DL, join the discussion right here.

On another topic: Newt or Mitt?

Can’t make it tonight? There are also meetings on Tuesday evening of the Tri-Cities and Bellingham chapters. And Wednesday evening, the Burien chapter meets. So…with 230 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

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“Another freakin’ debate?!?” open thread

by Darryl — Monday, 1/23/12, 5:49 pm

Debate. Florida. Tonight. 6:00 pm local time.

This one could be an earth scorcher.

Consider this. The past couple of weeks of polls have had Romney leading Gingrich by double digits in Florida. Today, there were two new polls released, and Gingrich leads Romney by +8 and +9.

Romney needs to do something different—that could be quite interesting.

Gingrich needs to not screw up, yet remain on the attack. He needs to show is fangs, but probably not bite anyone but the media.

Santorum and Paul are there for the shits and giggles.

I’ll live blog when I can, but I may have a couple of interruptions.

Live stream is at NBC here.

6:08: Mitt comes out attacking Gingrich…but he is using too much, too soon. Clearly, when it come to attacking, Mitt is a novice.

6:10: Newt says Mitt is “a lousy historian.” Yeah…I’ll bet Mitt never earned a monthly “retainer” of $25000 to $30000 to serve as an “historian.”

6:12: I think Rick Santorum is saying something.

6:14: Ron Paul, “The delegates is what counts.”

6:16: Will Ron Paul run as a 3rd party candidate. “No plans to do that.”

6:18: Mitt on what is controversial in his tax returns: “No surprises.” “But the real question is the American people…”taxes too intrusive”, “lower tax rates”, “pro-growth tax policy”, blah, blah, blah.

6:21: Priceless: Newt gets Romney to volunteer that under his (Newt’s) tax plan, Mitt would have paid zippo, zilch, zero tax (’cause his income is all capital gains).

6:24: I think Santorum just burbled something.

6:25: Seriously…Santorum is almost incomprehensible tonight. He’s pullin’ a Perry.

6:26: Newt defends his $25,000 to $30,000 PER MONTH “historical consulting” retainer: We had a consultant come in and tell us the fine line between lobbying and citizen activism.

6:30: The debate briefly spirals out of control with Newt and Mitt arguing back and forth. Perhaps the moderators have fallen asleep?

6:32: Mitt thinks influence peddling is “not right.” I am sure he will shut down K-street should he become preznit.

6:37: Rick Santorum’s “Free Market”: let the banks fail, but help people get out from being underwater. Ron Paul’s “Free Market”: let the banks fail, and let people fail.

6:41: Newt: “Repeal Dodd–Frank and the economy will recover overnight.” Ummm….didn’t the economy tank—and remain tanked—before Dodd–Frank was passed?!?

6:44: Mitt, “The President has taken a VERY DANGEROUS PATH with regard to Cuba.” WTF?!?

6:44: Newt: Fidel Castro is going to hell.

6:45: Paul: “The Cold War is over!” “I don’t know why all the Cubans are so intimidating.”

6:47: Santorum: “Sanctions in Cuba should continue until the Castros are dead.” WTF?!?

6:48: Santorum seems to be claiming that Cuba has become a platform for Jihad. Perhaps he believes “Jihad” is waged by all people with darkish skin.

6:49: Mitt, again, claims that the “Navy is smaller than any time since 1917.” Politifact: Pants on Fire.

7:00: Santorum gets all scaremongery over Iran. Still…no evidence that they are developing a nuclear weapon.

7:02: Santorum: Pipelines and off-shore rigs are the safest way to transport oil. I guess that works…if we live in the Middle East.

7:03: Newt tries to justify is lunatic rantings about the need for English as an Official Language. Sure…that will solve the problem.

7:04: Mitt agrees. Paul…let the States decide what is best for them.

7:06: Newt and Mitt: Dream Act for foreign mercenaries Only!

7:08: Mitt relies on people “self-deport[ing]” when they are dying of hunger.

7:09: Newt on sugar, “In an ideal world you would have an open market”…but I couldn’t do anything about it. I tried.

7:11: Mitt: Just get rid of sugar subsidies.

7:11: Mitt: “Everything Obama has done has made it worse for Florida.”

7:19: Did Historian Newt just mis-remember the Terry Schaivo case? I think Newt said her husband wanted her to live.

7:21: Mitt wants NASA to be a collaboration between government, private business, and our educational institutions. Wait…isn’t that what’s going on right now?

8:03: I was in there up to 7:25—the final break. I was “on” for dinner, so during the breaks I was running out to the kitchen to prepare enchiladas.

Wrap-up:

Newt wins. He made no gaffes. He weaseled his way out of questions about his past ethics violations and failed House leadership.

Mitt isn’t very good on the attack—to me, his attempts fell flat.

What we have here, folks, is a two way race that is nearly tied: Mitt, the rich boy who desperately wants to be President and Newt, the self-confessed smartest man in the world, who knows the position needs him.

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Same-sex marriage has 25 Senate votes

by Darryl — Monday, 1/23/12, 12:19 pm

A press release was just issued stating that Sen. Mary Margaret Haugen (D-10 LD) will support Senate Bill 6239, that will legalize same-sex marriage in Washngton state.

The Senate bill was introduced with 23 sponsoring senators. Last Thursday, Sen. Jim Kastama (D-25 LD) signed on.

And then there was 25.

Passage is all but certain in the House, which means same-sex marriage is coming to Washington.

Opponents have promised to put a referendum on the ballot. But, considering that a recent Washington Poll poll found 55% to 38% support for such a referendum, this pretty much works in favor of those supporting equal rights for same sex couples. Having the referendum on the ballot may well encourage disgruntled liberals to participate in other high-stakes elections.

Update: Within minutes of posting this, I received a robo-poll from the National Organization for Marriage seeking my opinion whether “marriage should be between one man and one woman only.” I said, “no”, and was then asked my sex and whether I was over 50 years old.

Their web site proclaims:

The National Organization for Marriage (NOM) today pledged to work with allies in Washington State to mount a referendum campaign to ensure that voters have the final say on the definition of marriage in Washington. Legislation, House Bill 2516 and Senate Bill 6239, has been introduced to abandon Washington’s historic definition of marriage as the union of one man and one woman, thus imposing same-sex marriage on the state.

Just one more reason why the 2012 election will be extraordinary.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 1/20/12, 11:58 pm

Thom with some Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Pap: How Republicans pack the courts.

White House: West Wing Week.

That political whorehouse that is Fox News is Worst Person in the World.

SOPA—PIPA:

  • Sam Seder: Our SOPA blackout
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Three SOPA Power Players.
  • Mark Fiore: SOPA–PIPA
  • Thom: Blacked out over SOPA.
  • Alyona’s Fireside Chat: SOPA blackout, future model for protest?
  • Jon on the SOPA protests.
  • About SOPA and PIPA.
  • Rockbottomcookie: Stop SOPA.
  • Sam Seder: SOPA & PIPA not the first time governments have messed with the web
  • Keith and Markos: shocking victory over SOPA
  • Alyona: PIPA/SOPA stopped for now.

Congressman Lamar Smith (R-Texas) is Worst Person in the World.

Sam Seder: Arizona pretends Mexicans don’t exist.

Obama: Lunar New Year Message.

Maddow: Why Gov. Mitch Daniels is an embarrassing choice for GOP response to State of The Union .

ONN: Critics slam Obama for just standing there…during photo op.

Olbermann with Nancy Pelosi: Reflections on election 2012.

Stephen does retired justice John Paul Stevens.

Thom with Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

The G.O.P. Primary Asylum:

  • Sam Seder: Republican clown car just got roomier.
  • SC debate redux:

  • Bill Maher: Rick Perry’s secret PAC ad.
  • Thom: 94 hamsters and Rick Perry’s brain.
  • The Huntsman girls’ unseen anti-Romney ad.
  • Alyona’s Tool Time Award: Huntsman scrubs web site of anti-Romney materials.
  • Ed: Wildest day of the GOP campaign leaves Mitt ‘Cayman’ Romney reeling
  • Mitt Romney dodges questions
  • Mitt Romney is STILL dodging.
  • Young Turks: Mr. 15%
  • Pap: Public thinks Romney only cares for the wealthy
  • Sharpton: Mitt Romney scrambles to hide Cayman Islands ‘loot’ .
  • Mitt Romney throws Granny off a cliff.
  • Mitt: Maybe.
  • Mitt Romney goes to SNL
  • Ad: Rich Kids for Romney:

  • A taxing day for Mitt Romney.
  • Mitt Romney, for laughs. (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • Alyona’s Tool Time award: Mitt Romney “from the streets”
  • Ed and Pap: Is Romney breaking the law with offshore bank accounts?
  • Thom: Is Mitt Romney a serial killer?
  • Mitt: Bain vs. Detroit
  • Ann Telnaes: When $362,000 a year is “not very much”.
  • Pro-Gingrich PAC imagines an Obama—Romney debate (via Political Wire).
  • Actual Audio: Newt thinks he will win South Carolina.
  • Stephen on Newt: He’s a Southern gentleman.
  • Red State Update: Newt’s open marriage, Rick Perry drops out, Mitt’s rich….
  • Newt Gingrich: Man of many wives.
  • Ann Telnaes: GOP wants an open marriage with Mitt.
  • Young Turks: Newt’s “Open Marriage” is worst example of family values.
  • Jon mocks Newt over “open marriage” accusation.
  • Thom: Crazy Alert—Rick Perry’s Tattoo

Sam Seder: A million signatures in Wisconsin.

Young Turks: Obama’s “Al Green” performance is a hit.

Alyona: Citizens United, two years later.

Jon with Fear Factory (via OneGoodMove).

Ann Telnaes: Stephen Colbert’s truthiness.

White House: David Plouffe on the State of the Union: The White House wants to hear from you:

Thom with some Good, Bad and Very, Very Ugly.

Running for President of the United States of South Carolina:

  • Jon is adrift in a sea of Colbert SuperPAC money.
  • Colbert SuperPAC is definitely not coordinating with Stephen Colbert.
  • Colbert SuperPAC: Vote Herman Cain, not Stephen Colbert.
  • Stephen Colbert is attacked by Colbert SuperPAC.
  • Stephen and Herman rally in South Carolina.

Ed with some Republican Psychotalk

Newt Gingrich sneers his way to Worst Person in the World.

Brave New Foundation: President Eisenhower warned us about Military-Industrial Complex and today’s war profiteers.

Thom: The Occupy Movement is mutating.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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SOPA & PIPA die

by Darryl — Friday, 1/20/12, 3:07 pm

In case you haven’t heard, SOPA and PIPA are dead:

SOPA sponsor Lamar Smith, the Republican chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, said his committee won’t take up the bill as planned next month — and that he’d have to “wait until there is wider agreement on a solution” before moving forward.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, meanwhile, said he was calling off a cloture vote on PIPA he’d scheduled for Tuesday.

…or at least delayed:

Reid tried to put on a brave face, saying in a statement that he was optimistic that progress could be made in the coming weeks.

Memo to Harry Reid:

What the fuck?!?

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Poll analysis: Obama still leads Romney

by Darryl — Thursday, 1/19/12, 11:04 pm

It’s been about a week and we finally have a handful of state head-to-head polls to look at:

Start End Sample % % %
St Poll date date size MOE O R Diff
AZ Rocky Mountain 05-Jan 09-Jan 553 4.3 37 43 R+6
FL Tarrance Group 10-Jan 12-Jan 607 4.1 46 45 O+1
NJ Quinnipiac 10-Jan 16-Jan 1460 2.6 48 38 O+10
OH Quinnipiac 09-Jan 16-Jan 1610 2.4 44 42 O+2

In New Jersey, Obama’s +10% over Romney isn’t a big surprise.

There are three more interesting swing states. In Arizona, Romney has a +6% lead over Obama. In Florida, Obama was slightly down in the previous poll and now has the slightest +1% lead. And in Ohio, Obama goes from being -1% in the previous poll to a +2% lead over Romney in the most current poll.

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney by 294 to 244 electoral votes, and with a 78.5% probability of winning an election held now.

With these new polls, the Monte Carlo analysis of 100,000 simulated elections gives Obama 77,516 wins to Romney’s 22,484 wins (and he gets the 1,386 ties). Obama receives (on average) 290 to Romney’s 248 electoral votes. Obama has a 77.5% probability of winning and Romney has a 22.5% probability of winning.

Obama Romney
77.5% probability of winning 22.5% probability of winning
Mean of 290 electoral votes Mean of 248 electoral votes

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

[Read more…]

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Live-blogging the Republican Carnival

by Darryl — Thursday, 1/19/12, 4:57 pm

That’s right. There is another GOP primary debate tonight. This one is sponsored by CNN.

You might say that today was a really, really lousy day for Mitt Romney. First, he is dramatically slipping in the SC primary polls to Newt Gingrich. For the past week, Romney has led Gingrich in every SC primary poll. Just yesterday Romney was leading Gingrich 33% to 23% in a CNN/Time poll—the only poll for that race. Today there are five new polls in the race: A Marist poll for NBC has Romney leading 34% to 24%; a Politico poll has Romney up 37% to 30%; Rasmussen has Gingrich leading 33% to 31%; an Insider Advantage poll has Gingrich leading 32% to 29%, and a PPP poll has the Newtster leading the Mittster by a whopping 34% to 28%.

You might say the SC primary is very suddenly a toss-up. (I know the coverage of it has sometimes made me want to toss-up, but that’s different.)

Mitt also had a bad day because Rick Perry surrendered (“you won’t have Rick Perry to kick around anymore”) and Perry endorsed the Newster.

Finally…We learned today that Mitt really, probably, kind-a lost the Iowa caucus to Rick Santorum. The blow is only psychological, as there were no delegates directly at stake. Still….

What saved the day for Romney, however, is the ABC News with Marianne Gingrich (the second of Newt’s wife collection) in which she claims Newt asked her to make theirs an open marriage:

She said when Gingrich admitted to a six-year affair with a Congressional aide, he asked her if she would share him with the other woman, Callista, who is now married to Gingrich.

“And I just stared at him and he said, ‘Callista doesn’t care what I do,'” Marianne Gingrich told ABC News. “He wanted an open marriage and I refused.”

With that, we enter the last debate before a pivotal SC primary. Will Mitt finally debate like he is fighting for his life? Will Newt go for more kills against Mitt? Will Ron Paul get to say anything? Will Santorum go after Mitt, the rich boy with a sense of entitlement, or will he go after Newt the fornicator?

Folks…it’s Popcorn Time!

I’ll be providing comments as I can. However, my power is flickering and my UPS is dead. Oh, joy.
[Read more…]

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A vote away from same-sex marriage

by Darryl — Thursday, 1/19/12, 1:02 pm

Senate Bill 6239 would legalize same-sex marriage in Washngton state. The bill was recently introduced with 23 sponsoring senators. It needs 25 votes to pass.

Today it just got one vote closer to passage (via KIRO):

Sen. Jim Kastama of Puyallup announced his decision Thursday, becoming the 24th senator to commit their vote to the measure. The chamber now needs to just one more yes vote from a group of a half-dozen uncommitted votes that remain.

Earlier today, the Washington State Catholic Conference came out against same-sex marriage. The reason they give is laughable:

This same law also prohibits marriage to close-blood relations, a clear indication that the definition of marriage is related to bringing children into the world and the continuation of the human race. The legislation to redefine marriage, therefore, is not in the public interest.

Horseshit.

What the bill actually does (see Section 3) is modify the incest laws by striking phrases like “husband and wife” and replacing them with “spouses”. For example:

When the ((husband and wife)) spouses are nearer of kin to each other than second cousins…

and

It is unlawful for any ((man to marry his father’s sister, mother’s sister, daughter, sister, son’s daughter, daughter’s daughter, brother’s daughter or sister’s daughter; it is unlawful for any woman to marry her father’s brother, mother’s brother, son, brother, son’s son, daughter’s son, brother’s son or sister’s son)) person to marry his or her sibling, child, grandchild, aunt, uncle, niece, or nephew.

Update: I misinterpreted what was being claimed, and have marked up what follows:

Clearly, what the bill does is just the opposite of what the Washington State Catholic Conference claims. Rather than adding proscriptions against incest that may result in inbred children, the law modifies to modify extant incest laws to make them apply to same-sex marriages as well.

But do the laws on the book actually refer only to relationships that are for procreation? I don’t think so. The incest laws apply equally to incestuous marriages in which one partner is sterile or in which the female partner is of a post-reproductive age. If a brother and sister marriage is a “moral shock,” is it any less of a shock to learn that he had had a vasectomy?

What about a post-menopausal mother marrying her son or grandson? Remember the priest in Harold and Maude? “I would be remiss in my duty, if I did not tell you, that the idea of… intercourse – your firm, young… body… comingling with… withered flesh… sagging breasts… flabby b-b-buttocks… makes me want… to vomit.”

Shocking? Yes. About procreation? no.

Clearly, there is something about our laws against incest that goes beyond mere inbreeding avoidance.

What a bunch of lying uptight assholes!

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Back from purgatory

by Darryl — Wednesday, 1/18/12, 11:47 pm

It was one hell of a day to be in purgatory. Everything closed in western Washington, there was white stuff everywhere, the National Organization for Marriage threatens to primary some of Washington’s GOP Senators, the Obama administration announced they would reject the Keystone pipeline (for now), the House teabaggers are up to their bullshit again, the DCCC added Washington’s 1st and 10th CD to their list of 18 Red-to-Blue program, Kodak files for bankrupcy, and one of Newt’s ex-wives taped an interview that will be damning.

And all that time, HA was black.

Was it worth it?

Yes:

Members of the Senate are rushing for the exits in the wake of the Internet’s unprecedented protest of the Protect IP Act (PIPA). At least 13 members of the upper chamber announced their opposition on Wednesday. In a particularly severe blow for Hollywood, at least five of the newly-opposed Senators were previously co-sponsors of the Protect IP Act. (Update: since we ran this story, the tally is up to 18 Senators, of which seven are former co-sponsors. See below.)

Welcome back.

And let’s hope we never have to do that again!

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Poll Analysis: McKenna leads Inslee, 46% to 43%

by Darryl — Tuesday, 1/17/12, 7:01 pm

A new poll has been released in the Washington state gubernatorial contest. The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for KING 5, shows AG Rob McKenna (R) leading Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA-01) 46% to 43%, with 11% undecided. The poll surveyed 617 registered voters and has a margin of error of 4%.

A Monte Carlo analysis simulating a million elections using these poll results gives the election to McKenna 707,667 times and Inslee 281,715 times. These results suggest that, if the election was held now, McKenna would have a 71.5% probability of winning and Inslee would win with a 28.5% probability. Here is the distribution of electoral votes from the simulated elections [FAQ]:

SurveyUSA17JAN2011

Today’s result makes the fourth consecutive poll that finds McKenna in the lead. A Survey USA poll taken from Nov. 21 to 23 of last year showed McKenna leading Inslee 44% to 38%. (I completely missed that poll until it was old news, so I have no post for it, but the Monte Carlo analysis gives McKenna an 88% chance of winning to Inslee’s 12% chance, had an election be held then.)

An October Washington Poll poll gave McKenna a 43.9% to 38.4% lead. Before that, a September Survey USA poll had McKenna up 44% to 38%. In fact, we have to go all the way back to a June Survey USA poll to find Inslee leading McKenna, 47% to 44%.

At this point it is undeniable that McKenna is the frontrunner. It isn’t inevitable that we will have a Republican Governor next year, but that’s what the polls have been saying for almost half a year….

The most recent analysis for the Inslee—McKenna race can be found here.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 1/17/12, 5:06 pm

It’s Tuesday, and that means it’s time for another evening of politics under the influence. Lot-o-stuff to discuss…the fourth consecutive poll showing McKenna leading Inslee (an analysis is forthcoming), the Walker recall signature drive, the Washington legislative session, the big storm tomorrow—either snow storm or internet brown-out shit-storm, your choice—and, of course, the Republican reality show….

Please join us this evening at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but a few folks show up earlier for a quiet dinner.

And now a word from our sponsor:

Can’t make it tonight? The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking Liberally meets every Tuesday night, and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets this Thursday.

With 230 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.

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They hate him…they REALLY hate him!

by Darryl — Tuesday, 1/17/12, 3:10 pm

On NPR’s Morning Edition today, there was piece about the recall drive against Gov. Scott Walker (R-WAI). Today was the deadline for turning in at least 540,208 signatures to force a recall election. There was speculation that a much larger number would be turned in. In response, Walker said (my emphasis):

“The optimist in me looks at that and says, ‘the overwhelming majority of the people in the state chose not to sign that and I earned the trust of the majority the last time.’ My hope is I will earn their trust again.”

This afternoon the Wisconsin State Journal writes:

Democrats and organizers filed petitions Tuesday afternoon with more than a million signatures as they sought to force a recall election against Gov. Scott Walker – a massive number that seems to cement a historic recall election against him for later this year.

Holy shit! Over a million signatures?!?

In the 2010 election, Walker got 1,128,941 votes, and his opponent, Mayor Tom Barrett (D-Milwaukee), got 1,004,303 votes. That is a total of 2,133,244 votes. So, the signature drive may well have collected signatures from a majority of the voters in the state.

Let’s put this into context. Suppose there are exactly one million and one signatures. Then it means the signatures amounted to 46.9% of the 2010 vote total. That’s huge.

In the 2003 California gubernatorial recall drive, organizers turned in 1.6 million signatures (of which 1,356,408 were valid). There were 7,738,821 votes in that election. So, that recall drive turned in signatures that amounted to only 20.7% of the 2003 vote total.

There are differences between Wisconsin and California in the recall process. Wisconsin requires a minimum of 25% of the number of votes cast in the previous election to California’s 12%. And there are different laws about signing petitions. Still, 46.9% is pretty fucking impressive.

In addition to the Walker recall, a sufficient number of signatures was returned to force recall elections for Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R), and four Republican state Senators (Fitzgerald, Galloway, Moulton and Wanggaard).

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Another Republican Primary Debate

by Darryl — Monday, 1/16/12, 6:10 pm

There is supposed to be a Republican Primary debate starting at 6PM local. I haven’t got the streaming to work yet. I post what I can, when I can.

6:24: Okay…here is a working live stream.”

6:26: Santorum is all over Mitt right now…asking about whether felons who have served their time should get their voting rights back. “No,” says Mitt.

6:28: Mitt comes out against superPACs.

6:29: I missed the first 20 minutes or so, but things are a bit feisty. I tuned in while Santorum was attacking Mitt because a superPAC attacked him for voting to restore felon rights. Sounds like I missed some fireworks over Bain Capital.

6:36: Mitt is asked about flip-flopping and launches into a canned stump speech. Then the feed locks up.

6:39: I get tuned back in with Perry on a “war on religion rant.” Something about “sexually trafficing”

6:42: Newt speaks! “Unemployment should be tied to a job requirement.” Doh!

6:48: Again my feed cuts out and when I come back Ron Paul has, apparently, gone from making some point to descended into babbling mode.

6:50: Ron Paul wants 0 taxes for all..”just like we had until 1913.”

6:51: Did Mitt just agree to release his taxes in April?!?

6:54: Juan Williams as Santorum if he things there should be programs to help raise African Americans out of poverty. Santorum’s answer: “Work, graduate from high school, and get married before having children.” Yeah…sure. Just let know the magic formula and have ’em click their heels three times….

6:57: Ron Paul points out that Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. would agree with him on the drug war and the war wars. Maybe they would agree on a couple of issues, but the paths to get there are very different.

6:59: Newt mentions doughnuts…and my dinner is ready, so I’m going to go eat. Pretty fluffy debate so far….

7:14: I’m back…and Ron Paul is in an anti-war rant…again.

7:15: Mitt is all about killing!

7:15: Mitt claims that Obama is negotiating with terrorists…you know, like he did with Osama bin Laden.

7:16: Mitt seems to forget (or, perhaps, never knew) that the Taliban isn’t al Qaeda.

7:17: Shorter Santorum: Obama caused the Syrian unrest by coming into office and opening up a U.S. embassy there.

7:19: Debate moderator asks a question of Rick Perry that paints Turkey as an enemy of the U.S. Perry, “we need to send a message to Iran, and Syria, and Turkey…” Holy shit, is Perry an idiot!

7:21: Perry: “When the Department of Defense Secretary….”

7:23: Ron Paul gives Mitt a lesson about the difference between the Taliban and al Qaeda.

7:23: Mitt claims our Navy is smaller than it has been since 1917. Really?

7:26: Listening to the Mittster, Santorum, and Paul on the defense authorization bill (exp. detention of U.S. citizens), Santorum ends up the moderate, Mitt the extremist. And Ron Paul is the guy who reached so far to the right that he ends up on the left.

7:32: Gingrich begins an answer: “It is, as a historian, a fact based model….”

7:36: Mitt and Santorum have gotten so practiced at their stump speeches, that they can spit them out much faster than I can even track ’em.

7:39: Gingrich manages to point out in two consecutive answers that he balanced the federal budget four times.

7:40: Mitt says his Social Security plan is better because it doesn’t suffer the problem that Gingrich’s does: “Fiscal insanity.”

7:46: Mitt claims that he believes that Obama is trying to prevent law-abiding citizens from owning and carrying guns. Really? How?

7:47: Mitt has been hunting for either elk or moose since 2008.

7:48: Santorum suggests that if there were no gun manufacturers in the U.S., our second amendment rights would, “de facto be gone.”

7:51: First Santorum was asking Mitt to “coordinate” with his PAC, now Newt Gingrich is asking him to “coordinate.” Mitt, in fact, spanks Newt by making him agree that calling up the PAC would be illegal.

7:54: Citizen’s United takes a bite out of the G.O.P. field: Mitt, “We all would like to see superPACs disappear, to tell the truth.”

7:57: The debate ends. I missed about 1/3 of the debate, but from what I see, Mitt wins yet again. He exits without a scratch. The post-debate pundits are talking about what an exciting debate it was, with so much “substance”. Not so much. The questions were about 50% fluff, and about 80% of all answers were candidates saying a sentence or two just to lead into a canned stump speech.

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