“Mitch McConnell is the one who has had his foot on the neck of this country’s economy….And the polls are now showing that Americans understand that Republicans are willing to sacrifice the health of our economy to have political advantage.”
Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA-07) to MSNBC’s Chris Jansing.
I just got to the Ale House, and will provide commentary and results as I find ’em. Feel free to scream, shout, celebrate, and weep in the thread.
7:02: Okay…according to Lee’s twitterfeed here is the good, the bad, and the ugly from all around:
47% voter turnout predicted by Sam Reed.
KY Governors race is a 21% spread for Democrat Steve Bashear.
With 1/3 of precincts reports in Mississippi, Initiative 26 (fetal personhood) is going down 60% to 40%.
In AZ, it looks like Russell Pearce (author of the anti-immigration law, SB 1070) is on his way out…53% to 45% with an unknown percent reporting.
7:12: Pro-union is voting to reject Ohio’s “Issue 2” that would repeal limits on collective bargaining. I mean…if The Twitter can be believed.
7:15: Virginia Senate is currently 22 D to 18 R. It is starting to look like Dems will retain their Senate majority.
7:17: It looks like Republican Phil Bryant wins for Mississippi Gov. Too bad…I heard an NPR piece about Democrat Johnny DuPree last night, and he was very intriguing. Sadly, Mississippi will have to wait to have its first black Governor.
7:24: As an aside…It seems to me that there is some type of metaphor here: Herman Cain reaching up the skirt for America’s genitals. On the other hand, Herman Cain pulling America’s head toward his crotch seems like an even better metaphor….
7:56: Just before WA results start coming in, I’ll shamelessly steal a summary from DailyKos on called races:
8:15: Very early results from a couple of counties (Franklin, Lewis, Kitsap, some of Pierce):
I-1125 (Kill transportation infrastructure): 52% yes to 48% no
I-1163 (Health care workers): 66% yes to 33% no
I-1183 (Costco’s Law): 62% yes to 38% no
8:26: I-1125 is now down by 1.5% with just under a million votes counted. Tim “Biggest Lie of My Life” Eyman is reportedly already trying to spin this as a “moral victory”. And by that, we mean, he got rich hawking the initiative.
8:30: AP calls I-1183. Get ready to cancel your Costco membership!
8:34: Jane Hague is up over Richard Mitchell 54% to 46% with 28% reporting. Booooooooooo!
8:41: In King County, with 25% reporting, I-1125 is losing 60% 40%.
8:42: For Seattle City council I hear incumbents all the way. Being a Redmond resident, I don’t really care.
8:44: I’m sitting next to Lee, and he is FORCING me to let you know that Initiative 1 in Tacoma (Makes pot possession lowest priority for law enforcement, like a similar thing in Seattle some years ago) is winning big time! [Update: 65% to 35%]
8:49: The other statewide recall this election is in Michigan HD-15, where Republican Rep. Paul Scott is being recalled. I’m seeing tweets that it is very close, but it looks like he has been recalled.
8:52: Dem. Reardon is winning in Snohomish. I’m not really a fan of Reardon, but Hope (R) is one scary motherfucker!
8:54: The most important statewide issue on the ballot this election is I-1125, that would restrict tolling, shut down light rail, and cripple Washington’s transportation infrastructure for years. As the vote trickles in, it becomes clear that the initiative is going down.
8:58: Old news now, but in Arizona, Wingnut author of anti-immigration law, Russell Pearce (R) is outta dare! This election has a certain amount of “extremism will not go unpunished” to it
9:17: In case you were wondering, Sherril Huff will continue to be KC elections director.
9:25: I-1125 is still down, but the margin has narrowed to 51% NO to 49% YES.
9:33: Surprise of the night: I-1125 is losing in Garfield County. Really? Garfield joins King, Snohomish, San Juan, and Jefferson counties? Well, it is only losing by 2 votes out of 864 (so far). But still….
It’s election day! If you haven’t done so yet, drop off your ballot. Then join us for an evening of electoral politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.
We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but a few folks show up earlier for dinner.
Can’t make it to Seattle? Tonight there are also meetings of the Tri-Cities chapter, the Vancouver, WA chapter and Drinking Liberally Bellingham. Tomorrow night, Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets.
With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including twelve in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.
Okay…maybe they didn’t strike a blow directly to Rob Mckenna, but by upholding the “individual mandate” in last year’s health care reform bill today, the Appeals Court for the District of Columbia Circuit has struck another serious blow against the multi-state lawsuit.
Today’s ruling makes the third Appeals Court to uphold the law and the controversial individual insurance mandate. (I reviewed the pending lawsuits and decisions through July here.) One court has ruled against the law: the 11th Circuit Court in Atlanta ruled 2-1 on August 11th against the insurance mandate provision in the law. This is the Teabagger-inspired lawsuit that Washington state AG Rob McKenna unilaterally joined against the will of the Governor, the Legislature, and the people. Mckenna takes credit for the instigating the lawsuit.
In today’s ruling the majority rejects the the Appellants’ central objection that, “Congress, for the first time, has actually commanded that all Americans purchase a product, health insurance”
We look first to the text of the Constitution. Article I, § 8,cl. 3, states: “The Congress shall have Power . . . To regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes.” (emphasis added). At the time the Constitution was fashioned, to “regulate” meant, as it does now, “[t]o adjust by rule or method,” as well as “[t]o direct.”
To“direct,” in turn, included “[t]o prescribe certain measure[s]; to mark out a certain course,” and “[t]o order; to command.”28 In other words, to “regulate” can mean to require action, and nothing in the definition appears to limit that power only to those already active in relation to an interstate market. Nor was the term “commerce” limited to only existing commerce. There is therefore no textual support for appellants’ argument.
Of course, they then look to previous Supreme Court decisions. The bottom line: the Court rejects McKenna’s bullshit.
And my lunch break is over, so enjoy the rest of the opinion.
I’m going to delve into a bit of poll wonkery here, so if this kind of thing doesn’t trip your trigger, go check your email or something.
There are a lot of polls I’ll not bother to write about.
For example, the Zogby Interactive polls are pretty much bullshit because the samples don’t come close to approximating a random sample of eligible voters. Likewise, I usually ignore polls conducted on behalf of candidates or a party. In that case, the polls may use perfectly fine methods conducted to professional standards. The problem is that the results may be released strategically—that is, released if the findings are favorable to a candidate or party and kept private otherwise. In other words, the poll itself isn’t representative.
Yesterday I came across a new type of poll from SurveyAnalytics . Here are the sampling methods described in the top-lines:
SurveyAnalytics conducted an online survey of 2,001 voters in King County, including the City of Seattle. All of these voters were determined to be likely to vote in the November 2011 General Election. SurveyAnalytics recruited respondents from a voter list purchased from Labels & Lists, which included citizens who had voted in 2, 3 or 4 of the most recent General Elections. Respondents were contacted via e-mail following an e-mail matching process also conducted by Labels & Lists. Voters completed the survey online using SurveyAnalytics’ CityFeedback platform.
Okay…the methods sound interesting, although I don’t know how the “email matching process” works. Older folks are likely underrepresented because many still don’t have email addresses or computers. But traditional land-line polls under-represent young voters, who are more likely to have only a cell phone for a telephone.
SurveyAnalytics compares their sample to a SurveyUSA poll of King County taken in 2009, and they find very similar results for sex and ethnicity, as well as crudely categorized education and income variables. But the SurveyAnalytics sample is, as expected, slightly younger compared to SurveyUSA’s poll. An alternative interpretation is that the SurveyUSA sample—based on robocalling land-lines—was too old!
I cannot vouch for the representativeness of this poll. I do find the methods intriguing. With that…here are some results from their survey of 2,001 King County likely voters (MOE 2.24%) taken from October 29 to November 2:
Again, keep in mind that these results are for King County only.
Out of curiosity, I’ve compared the SurveyAnalytics poll to the “Puget Sound” sample from the recent Washington Poll. I’m not sure what “Puget Sound” is defined as in the Washington Poll, but keep in mind that the samples in the two polls are not strictly comparable.
Obama does marginally well in King County by this poll at 52%. But the total of all Republican candidate percentages is only 24 36%, with Romney at 24%. The Washington Poll has an Obama—Romney match-up giving Obama 55% to Romney’s 37% in “Puget Sound”. The difference may largely be the number of undecideds, perhaps reflecting how the question was asked.
The most interesting finding is that McKenna and Inslee are practically tied in King County. This isn’t as bad as it looks for Inslee, as McKenna had an extra 10% of people who could say he was running. The Washington Poll found Inslee leading McKenna in “Puget Sound” 45% to 40%. As I mentioned earlier, Inslee probably does better relative to McKenna as more of the undecideds decide. And to win, he’ll have to do much better in King County in November 2012….
The I-1183 findings are more favorable at 62% Yes, 33% No compared to Washington Poll’s 52%, 42% split for “Puget Sound”.
Initiative 1125 loses by a whopping 50% to 38% in King County; the Washington Poll’s Puget Sound sample rejected the initiative by a more modest 43% to 42%.
It will be interesting to compare the actual vote in King County for the initiatives this election to these poll results, if only to assess whether this particular internet-based polling method is any good. And whether future polls of this type are worth our attention.
Alyona: Today is “Bank Transfer Day”:
Thom with The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Conan does a same-sex wedding on his show (via Slog).
Ann Telnaes: Seven Billion.
Daily Show on how a bill donsn’t become a law.
America Occupied:
Sam Seder: The Republican “God” job plan.
Alyona: Mass corporate tax dodging.
Ann Telnaes: China to bail out the Euro.
Thom with some more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.
The Republican Primary Asylum:
Alyona’s Tool Time: John Boehner on Norquist.
Obama: On investing.
Glenn Beck is just happy to be noticed as Worst Person in the World.
Jon the Racist:
White House: West Wing Week.
Judge William Adams (Arkansas County Court-at-Law, Texas) is Worst Person in the World.
Sam Seder: Ann Coulter’s, “Our blacks are the best blacks.
Twilight: “Say it”:
Are the Koch brothers denying your vote?
Alyona’s Fire Side chat: Escalating drone war unnoticed.
Thom: The secret list of 14 words.
Sam Seder: How do you debunk a Libertarian? Let ’em talk.
G.O.P.’s Big Job Creation Idea:
Sam Seder: How racism still influences American politics.
Ann Telnaes: The McFib.
Ed and Pap: Tea Party is okay with sexual harassment.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Yesterday morning on KUOW, Darcy Burner announced her candidacy for Washington’s 1st CD. Weekday host Steve Scher interviewed Darcy about her run and her vision for the position. Here is the audio of the interview. It’s worth a listen:
[audio:http://www.podcastingliberally.com/podcasts/BurnerInterview.mp3]Darcy Burner’s campaign web site can be found here.
It is election time in Washington state. Like me, you probably have a ballot and a voter’s guide sitting on the kitchen table.
Sometime this weekend, Kathy and I will sit down at the kitchen table and discuss issues and races as we fill out our ballots. And no, we don’t always vote the same way, but usually. When there is uncertainty about a race or ballot measure, perhaps she’ll pull out her Mac Air while I fire up my my Windows netbook, or maybe she’ll grab her iPhone as I grab for my Android phone and we’ll engage in a friendly research competition. Despite our “platform heterogeneity” we typically end up agreeing politically. The winner gets there first.
One of my favorite on-line resources is Fuse’s Progressive Voters Guide. Their statewide guide can be found here. County-specific and even city-level guides are available as well. So, if you live in King County, check this one out. Seattleites go here.
As much as I lament the demise of the voting booth, I welcome voting as a new and interesting (if brief) family activity.
Make sure you vote this week! It just might be fun.
There were hints, and clues, and even outright claims, but now it’s official.
I mean, if you can believe hack journalist David “Goldy” Goldstein…Darcy Burner is running for Congress in Washington’s 1st congressional district.
For me that’s great news—I live in the 1st CD. Looking at the redistricting proposals, chances are excellent that Darcy Burner will be my next representative.
Darcy joins a somewhat crowded field of Democrats for the 1st CD, including State Rep. Roger Goodman, Former state Rep. Laura Ruderman, and State Rep. Marko Liias. I would be happy to be represented by any of these folks. (Okay…maybe not so much Ruderman, who seems to be great at fundraising, but what else? I simply don’t know.) Darcy, just by entering the race, becomes the front-runner.
This isn’t just my opinion. Remember the poll that Publicola got wind of (and that I mentioned here) a couple days ago? It shows Burner unquestionably in the lead.
If the redistricted 1st CD bears any resemblance to its old self, a Democratic candidate coming out of the primary will almost certainly win the general. Rep. Jay Inslee (who is vacating the seat to run for Governor) has held the district since 1999. The district has voted increasingly Democratic in recent presidential elections: Al Gore won by 53%, John Kerry won by 56%, and Barack Obama won by 62%.
On top of that, the Republicans have no candidates of any note running. Well…James Watkins, the guy who challenged Inslee in 2008, is running again.
I met Darcy during her first congressional run against Rep. Dave Reichert. I have interacted with her, perhaps, a dozen times since then, including doing one interview. My excitement at today’s announcement is genuine…I really want her to represent me! My reasons haven’t changed much from what I wrote back in 2006:
It was clear to me from that first meeting that Ms. Burner was an extraordinary individual—she struck me as smart, well-informed, articulate, disciplined, confident, and full of energy. I had no idea whether these attributes could translate into success in campaigning and politics, but I thought that Darcy exhibited many of the good attributes that I wanted in a political leader, and she didn’t seem afflicted with the negative attributes found in so many political leaders.
I couldn’t vote for Darcy in 2006 or 2008—my house is located a bit north of the 8th CD in the 1st CD. For the 2012 election cycle, I am most pleased to welcome Darcy to the 1st!
(You can contribute to Darcy Burner’s campaign here.)
Please join us this evening for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.
We meet at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00 pm, but a few folks show up earlier for dinner.
Can’t make it tonight? The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night. Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets this Thursday, 7:00pm at the Hub Restaurant. Also next Monday, the Olympia chapter of Drinking Liberally, the Yakima chapter, and the South Bellevue chapter meets.
With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including thirteen in Washington state and six more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s one near you.
This is a quick follow-up to my previous post about the new Washington Poll. The poll surveyed 938 registered voters from 10th Oct to 30th Oct.
In the Washington Governor’s race, the poll found Rep. Jay Inslee behind AG Rob McKenna by 38.4% to 43.9% with 17.7% undecided. The question is, how do these numbers translate into the probability that McKenna would beat Inslee if the election had been held in October. As is my habit, I employ Monte Carlo methods, simulating a million elections of 938 voters randomly drawing votes at the observed percentages.
The results give Inslee 92,405 “elections” and McKenna 903,409 “elections.” Thus, McKenna would have about a 91% probability of winning an election held in October. Here’s the picture:
By a traditional statistical assessment, McKenna’s lead is not “significant,” in that he doesn’t break the 95% threshold. Still…McKenna would be the likely winner. He was also leading Inslee by 34% to 38% in a late September SurveyUSA poll (and one other partisan poll as well.)
As Eli Sanders points out, there is a bright side for Inslee. He has cut into McKenna’s support in the Puget Sound region:
While September’s KING 5/Survey USA poll showed Inslee running dead even with McKenna in the Puget Sound region (a terrible sign for Inslee’s chances of pulling out a statewide victory), yesterday’s Washington Poll showed Inslee up by five points among Puget Sound voters.
I would add that in the poll before that by SurveyUSA poll, Inslee led McKenna. McKenna still had 44%, but Inslee had 47%. The difference is that only 9% were undecided. (And Inslee led by 7% points in “metro Seattle.”)
The evidence is too weak for any certainty, but taken together, the trend looks like Inslee gains over McKenna (particularly in the Puget sound region) when undecided voters make up their minds.
Herman Cain makes more headlines this week.
Although he has a juicy campaign finance scandal brewing, and a bizarre gaffe about the Palestinian people, what people are really intrigued by is the revelations that Herman was, in the 1990s, accused of sexual harassment by two employees of the National Restaurant Association while Cain was the organization’s CEO.
The story has some potential…comedy potential, as in, “Herman, dude, hasn’t anyone ever told you that nein, nein, nein means NEIN?!?”
Other than that, this story stinks.
First, this is not going to help and might, quite possibly, hurt Cain’s chances at taking the nomination. And I don’t want anything to hurt Cain’s chances of being the Republican nominee for 2012. Seriously…if Obama has to go up against Romney or Cain, I’d much rather he go up against Cain. Besides the fact that Cain is the weaker of the two candidates, I like the gut-knotting turmoil it causes amongst the bigoted faction of Republicans.
It also sucks for a more important reason: because it feeds ugly bigotry, by reinforcing a negative stereotype of black men. “They’re stealing our women!”
And that is simply ugly.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not taking a stand on whether or not Cain sexually harassed those women. I’m not offering any excuses for sexual harassment, or making excuses for Cain if it turns out he did engage in that behavior. But the legal settlement prevents the women from talking about their complaint or the monetary settlement, so that there will always remain some uncertainty about what really happened. And the bigots will use that uncertainty to feed their ugly habit. Yuck.
As an aside, even Obama isn’t immune from this stereotype.
Remember last year when Newt Gingrich made headlines about Dinesh D’Souza “stunning insight” into Obama?
…the “most profound insight I have read in the last six years about Barack Obama.”
“What if [Obama] is so outside our comprehension, that only if you understand Kenyan, anti-colonial behavior, can you begin to piece together [his actions]?” Gingrich asks. “That is the most accurate, predictive model for his behavior.”
“This is a person who is fundamentally out of touch with how the world works, who happened to have played a wonderful con, as a result of which he is now president,” Gingrich tells us.
What was D’Souza “profound insight” in this article that so inspired Gingrich? The article concludes:
But instead of readying us for the challenge, our President is trapped in his father’s time machine. Incredibly, the U.S. is being ruled according to the dreams of a Luo tribesman of the 1950s. This philandering, inebriated African socialist, who raged against the world for denying him the realization of his anticolonial ambitions, is now setting the nation’s agenda through the reincarnation of his dreams in his son. The son makes it happen, but he candidly admits he is only living out his father’s dream. The invisible father provides the inspiration, and the son dutifully gets the job done.
Ahh, yes…if Obama doesn’t fit the bigot’s stereotype directly, lash him to that post by his genes.
As for Cain, at least the sexual harassment issue will divert people from some other, probably more serious, “issues” of the Cain campaign.
The Washington Poll has released a new poll of Washington state voters on issues, initiatives in this election, as well as candidates in next year’s election.
The poll surveyed 938 registered voters from Oct 10th through Oct 30th, and has a margin of error of 3.2%
Here is the summary:
Here is what I take away from this poll:
More poll results will be released soon.
White House: West Wing Week.
Thom: The Good, The Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Young Turks: Steve Jobs ripped FAUX News a new one.
Susie’s presidential cat bowl.
Greenman: Climate denial crock of the week.
Pap: G.O.P. continues its Class Genocide.
Jon on the Koch brother’s accidental science.
America Occupied by Americans:
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Ugly.
Ann Telnaes: Mitch McConnell on state bailouts.
ONN week in review.
Bill-O the Clown retakes the crown as Worst Person in the World.
Young Turks: Global warming confirmed by Koch-funded scientist.
Comedian Orlando Jones jokes his way to Worst Person in the World.
Thom: The Patriot Act at 10 years.
Mark Fiore: Tough enough.
The G.O.P. Primary Asylum:
Sen. Maria Cantwell: Preserving workers’ rights.
Young Turks: No handguns for Obama voters….
Alyona’s Tool Time: Gov. Walker supports guns, not cameras.
Thom: Have Dems not learned their lesson yet?
San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee: 2 Legit 2 Quit (via Political Wire).
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
Publicola has a tip about a robopoll concerning the 2012 election for the seat currently held by Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA-8):
Two-time Reichert challenger, onetime Microsoft exec, and now lefty leader at ProgressiveCongress.org, Darcy Burner, is looking at getting in.
I hope so. Darcy is smart and energetic.
Oh…and she’s right on the issues.
Reichert? Yeah…not so much.
I’m not saying he’s brain damaged, or anything silly like that. Plainly put, Reichert is a third-tier Congressman who hasn’t show much of anything resembling initiative or influence.
And he is wrong on the issues. Sure, he occasionally casts pro-environment votes…that’s nice. As it turns out, he does so for self-confessed cynical reasons. That he got caught, unforced, fessing-up doesn’t speak well to his intelligence or his understanding of his job.
Washington’s congressional delegation is weakened by having among their members this listless, ineffective, and uncommunicative third-rate congressman. Let’s hope that the voters in Reichert’s 8th (possibly reshaped) district realize in 2012 that they’ve outgrown him.
I mean, they shouldn’t have to wait 20 years for Reichert to figure out how to do his job….
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