Obama | Romney |
100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
Mean of 347 electoral votes | Mean of 191 electoral votes |
There have been fourteen new state head-to-head polls taken since my previous analysis of the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.
No big surprises in them. Obama leads Romney in the three classic swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania poll and Ohio (twice). Obama also leads in Virginia and three Wisconsin polls. On the other hand, Nebraska CD 2 has swing slightly in favor of Romney.
start | end | sample | % | % | % | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
st | poll | date | date | size | MOE | O | R | diff |
AR | Talk Business-Hendrix College | 26-Mar | 26-Mar | 759 | 3.6 | 33.0 | 56.5 | R+23.5 |
CT | Quinnipiac | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1622 | 2.4 | 53 | 37 | O+16 |
FL | Quinnipiac | 20-Mar | 26-Mar | 1228 | 2.8 | 49 | 42 | O+7 |
MA | PPP | 16-Mar | 18-Mar | 936 | 3.2 | 58 | 35 | O+23 |
NE | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 1028 | 3.1 | 39 | 51 | R+12 |
NE1 | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 432 | — | 41 | 49 | R+8 |
NE2 | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 277 | — | 45 | 46 | R+1 |
NE3 | PPP | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 319 | — | 31 | 57 | R+26 |
NH | ARG | 15-Mar | 18-Mar | 557 | 4.2 | 48 | 41 | O+7 |
OH | Rasmussen | 26-Mar | 26-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 48 | 40 | O+8 |
OH | Quinnipiac | 20-Mar | 26-Mar | 1246 | 2.8 | 47 | 41 | O+6 |
OR | SurveyUSA | 14-Mar | 19-Mar | 1615 | 2.5 | 49.8 | 38.8 | O+11.0 |
PA | Quinnipiac | 20-Mar | 26-Mar | 1232 | 2.8 | 45 | 42 | O+3 |
VA | PPP | 20-Mar | 20-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 51 | 42 | O+9 |
WI | Rasmussen | 27-Mar | 27-Mar | 500 | 4.5 | 52 | 41 | O+11 |
WI | Marist | 26-Mar | 27-Mar | 1400 | 2.6 | 52 | 35 | O+17 |
WI | Marquette Law School | 22-Mar | 25-Mar | 707 | — | 48.2 | 43.2 | O+4.9 |
The previous analysis had Obama leading Romney by an average of 339 to 199 electoral votes. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 347 to Romney’s 191 electoral votes.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
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