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Why does the media allow McKenna to get away with this?

by Darryl — Wednesday, 7/18/12, 4:17 pm

There were some “legs” on the story of McKenna’s young staffer who made some unfortunate Tweets.

That’s the “big story” in the region’s media this week, but I think the media has missed the real story.

Kathlyn Ehl, who recently graduated from the UW, was hired by the McKenna campaign. But while she was a student, she created these cringe-worthy tweets:

Kathlyn Ehl @KathlynEhl
shut up and speak english #asians

and

Kathlyn Ehl @KathlynEhl
If it takes you an entire green light to walk in front of my car, GET A WHEELCHAIR #toooldtowalk

The tweets were brought to light on Slog.

Given how the press initially ignored stories like a County Executive candidate who punched his mother, and a Lands Commissioner engaging in sexual harassment, I figured the press would completely ignore this story…at least for a few days. In the mean time, the McKenna campaign would “disappear” the offending tweets and, perhaps, the staffer, without comment.

But the media has been over it. KUOW put it in their top-o-the-hour newscasts. Other media sources carried the KOMO story or the AP release. Even the Seattle Times had a story up by Monday evening.

Monday afternoon, the McKenna campaign did its own press release:

The tweets sent by a member of my campaign staff, Kathlyn Ehl, which were reported today were offensive and inappropriate. I am glad to see that she has apologized for her actions,” the statement reads. “The fact that she made the comments before joining my campaign does not make them any less hurtful to Asian Americans and the elderly. They were insensitive and wrong regardless of their context. She has done the right thing by apologizing. I am hopeful that she has learned a humbling lesson that will give her greater perspective about having charity in her heart when considering the challenges faced by others.

And by this morning, the offending policy assistant was gone, as was revealed by another McKenna campaign press release.

So, good on you, media, for even noticing. I’m not sure what the lesson is from that except, perhaps, that Anthony Weiner might still be in Congress if he had had the foresight to beat the shit out of someone instead of tweeting a photo of his bulging briefs.

But here’s what I think is the part of this story that should outrage the fuck out of the media (emphasis added):

Oddly, even though McKenna’s comments respond directly to a story we broke, his campaign did not send the statement to The Stranger. Instead, we obtained them from another source.

…and this…

I’ve posted [the McKenna campaign’s] statement—which, of course, the McKenna campaign didn’t send to The Stranger, even though we broke this story….

REALLY, McKenna??? Fucking REALLY?!? You want to be Governor of our state, and you persist in having a media “enemies list?”

This certainly paints him a small, petty man who lacks the temperament to be Governor.

McKenna believes he can pick who is and isn’t media and who is and isn’t a reporter.

What I don’t understand is why the area’s media allow McKenna to get away unscathed with this kind of bullshit.

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Poll Analysis: Romney gains…to 0.4%

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/17/12, 7:41 pm


Obama Romney
99.6% probability of winning 0.4% probability of winning
Mean of 327 electoral votes Mean of 211 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 334 to 204 electoral votes in an election held now. Obama would be expected to win the hypothetical election with 100% probability.

Since then eight new polls have been released:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CO Purple Poll 09-Jul 13-Jul 600 4.0 45 44 O+1
FL Purple Poll 09-Jul 13-Jul 600 4.0 45 48 R+3
FL Mason Dixon 09-Jul 11-Jul 800 3.5 46 45 O+1
IA PPP 12-Jul 15-Jul 1131 2.9 48 43 O+5
NH U NH 05-Jul 15-Jul 470 4.3 49 45 O+4
NY Siena 10-Jul 15-Jul 758 3.6 61 34 O+27
OH Purple Poll 09-Jul 13-Jul 600 4.0 48 45 O+3
VA Purple Poll 09-Jul 13-Jul 600 4.0 46 44 O+2

Colorado offers Obama a +1% edge over Romney, 45% to 44%. The larger trend looks good, but not great, for Obama:
ObamaRomney17Jun12-17Jul12Colorado

Two Florida polls split. Romney leads Obama by +3% in the Purple Strategies Poll, and Obama leads by +1 in the Mason-Dixon poll. The combined results of the five current polls suggest Obama would win now with a 68.4% probability. But the polling trends don’t favor either candidate. There is simply too much volatility:

ObamaRomney17Jun12-17Jul12Florida

Iowa gives Obama a +5% lead over Romney, and the lead in the past two polls. The trend is no comfort to either candidate. Obama has some good polls, they are almost all from one pollster (PPP):

ObamaRomney17Jun12-17Jul12Iowa

New Hampshire gives Obama a small lead over Romney by +4%, giving Obama a six-consecutive poll streak going back to early April.

Why do pollsters even bother with polling New York where Obama has a double-digit +27% lead over Romney? I guess it’s a near-free-bee while polling other state races. (Still…I’d rather see a new poll in, say, South Carolina.)

Ohio puts Obama over Romney by a tight +3%. That makes three in a row for Obama, going back to early June. The overall trend looks pretty favorable for Obama:

ObamaRomney17Jun12-17Jul12Ohio

Virginia has Obama up by +2% over Romney, and taking both July polls. On balance, the polling looks slightly better for Obama:
ObamaRomney17Jun12-17Jul12Virginia

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 99,646 times and Romney wins 354 times (including the 60 ties). Obama receives (on average) 327 (-7) to Romney’s 211 (+7) electoral votes. For that hypothetical election held now, Obama would have a 99.6% (-0.4%) probability of winning and Romney a 0.4% (+0.4%) probability of winning.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/17/12, 5:27 pm

DLBottle
Our summer and the political campaigns are all heating up. So please join us for a thirst-quenching evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night. Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets on Thursday. Also on Thursday, the Spokane Chapter is back!

With 226 chapters of Living Liberally, including eleven in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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The weekend feeding frenzy

by Darryl — Sunday, 7/15/12, 4:07 pm

Some hours after I posted the Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! there were interesting new developments in the 2012 Presidential race that can be appreciated best visually.

It began with this advertisement from the Obama campaign that had everyone all a-twitter:

David Kurtz at TPM, in particular, is awestruck by the ad:”One for the History Books” he titles a post, and at one point he comparing it to FDR LBJ’s Daisy ad (this one).

Locally, The Stranger‘s Paul Constant expressed some enthusiasm for the ad (his emphasis, not mine):

Holy fucking shit. This is the most brutal attack ad I’ve seen in a long, long time. It minces the hell out of Romney’s offshore fortunes and his record as a jobs exporter (in the private and public sectors). And it makes fun of Romney’s singing voice, turning his version of “America, the Beautiful” into a symbol of his warped view of patriotism

The Romney campaign hit back with an ad that can only be described as pathetic:

The thesis is that by hitting Mitt Romeny hard on the Bain thing, it somehow negates Obama’s “Hope and Change” message of the last campaign. The writers obviously try to confuse Obama, the President, and Obama, the candidate.

For over three years, Republicans have been warning about how President Obama was “changing America into something unrecognizable.” Now, the Romney camp is “warning” America that Obama is just like other candidates.

It is conceivable that this ad actually helps Obama, by defusing the “changing America into something unrecognizable” argument for folks who don’t recognize that campaigns are not the same thing as policy.

The weekend has brought out a plethora of politicos making the rounds on the talk shows, including bulldogs like Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Karl Rove—who has the naked audacity to “warn” Obama about negative campaigning. That’s hilarious!

But of all the interviews, the ones with Romney campaign senior adviser Ed Gillespie are the most interesting.

In an interview on CNN’s State of the Union, Gillespie stated (my emphasis):

“He is going to release them [2 years of tax returns], Candy, we’ve made that clear, and that’s the standard that Senator McCain, Republican nominee in the last election said was the relevant standard. It’s the standard that Senator John Kerry as the Democratic nominee said was the standard.”

First…he really ought to rethink citing the losers of the past two elections as the model. Just sayin’.

Another problem is that John Kerry did not say that was the standard. Gillespie was off by an order of magnitude. Kerry released 20 years of tax returns. So, about that “standard”….

And on NBC’s Meet the Press we get this gem when David Gregory asked about Mitt benefiting financially from Bain even while on leave:

He actually retired retroactively…

Watch the 00:01:57 clip:

The Twitterosphere has gone bananas with the hash tag #retroactively.

I’ll close by pointing out two things.

First, when the Romney campaign has to “explain” the subtly of Romney’s position during the “bad” Bain years by using a five syllable adverb, they’re not just losing the campaign battle, they’re fucking losing their base!

Secondly, I’ll point out again what a precarious position Romney is now in. We know he was drawing a six-figure salary for, apparently, being on leave; for being completely detached from decisions at Bain. But the media smells blood in that—they will relentlessly attempt to unearth evidence that Romney did make some big decisions. And they’ll probably find something.

But even if they don’t, Romney still has the (relatively unexamined) implications found in Gregory’s question: As the owner of and sole shareholder in Bain and other spin-off companies, Romney was at a minimum receiving salary and investment profit from outsourcing, layoffs, liquidations, the offshore tax havens and, apparently, disposal of fetuses.

That he solely owned Bain through 2001 is undisputed fact. It just makes him look like a weasel to absolve himself of all responsibility, while earning millions, because he was on leave. Or retired.&

&retroactively.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 7/13/12, 11:58 pm

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News profanity hypocrisy.

Pap: Republicans bury their heads in the sand on climate change.

Young Turks: Nutjobber Rep. Michele Bachmann, “Muslim Brotherhood infiltrating America”.

NAACP Convention:

  • Mitt Romney’s Black base.
  • Organs make political speeches better:
  • Slate News: Romney gets booed.
  • Young Turks: Joe Biden’s NAACP speech.
  • Young Turks: Mitt Romney NAACP speech conspiracy theories.

Alyona’s Tool Time Award: David Brooks and “Meritocracies”.

ONN: Ron Paul makes campaign stop in whimsical jalopy.

Young Turks: Climate change or just hot weather?

Jimmy Kimmel: Boehner’s tears.

Ann Telnaes: Empowering women with choice and education.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Mitt’s Olympic Trial:

  • Slate News: Is Mitt Romney lying about leaving Bain?
  • Young Turks: When did Mitt Romney leave Bain.
  • Vetting Mitt’s Veeps: Sarah Palin:
  • Ann Telnaes: Dick Cheney fundraiser.
  • Newsy: When did Mitt leave?
  • Young Turks: Obama campaign’s devastating, simple strategy to attack Romney.
  • Jenn: Mitt Romney is unworthy of the Presidency.
  • Maddow: Romney paid as a do-nothing President?!?
  • Bill Press: DNC on Romney’s ‘ludicrous and shocking’ claims about stimulus money
  • John Oliver: Mitt Romney is not boring.
  • Young Turks: Where in the world is Mitt’s Money.
  • Maddow: Ghosts of Bush Administration haunt Romney’s campaign.
  • Mitt’s Bain secret exposed!
  • Barely Political: An iPhone 4Mitt:
  • Daily Kos Radio: Bain-a-palooza
  • Thom and Pap: Romney caught Lying Again & Again & Again

Stephanie Miller: A Sarah Palin election sound bite.

Sam Seder: Rick Scott’s vision seems to be “Tuberculosis For Everyone!”

Thom: Do we need the Disclose Act or a Constitutional amendment?

Sam Seder: Ron and Rand’s internet manifesto.

Maddow: “Scott Brown claims Clinton, Biden call him!

Mark Fiore: The Godawful Particle.

Papantonio & Lizz Winstead: Lizz Free or Die.

Ann Telnaes: Boehner gets his health-care facts wrong.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

LePage-turner:

  • America’s STUPIDEST Governor??? LePage (R-ME) doubles down on comparing ‘Obamacare’ to the Holocaust (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • Young Turks: IRS=Gestapo.

Threatening the First Lady!?!

Greenman: Welcome to the rest of our lives:

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Maddow: Reprieve for Mississippi’s last abortion clinic.

Alyona: Whale Wars.

Young Turks: Obama’s “biggest mistake” during Charlie Rose interview.

Pap and Cliff Schecter on offshore banking scams:

  • Part I.
  • Part III.
  • Part III.

White House: West Wing Week.

Kimmel: This week in unnecessary censorship.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: No gains as Romney trails way behind

by Darryl — Friday, 7/13/12, 3:54 pm


Obama Romney
100.0% probability of winning 0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 334 electoral votes Mean of 204 electoral votes

My previous analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney by 327 to 211 electoral votes, and with a 99.9% probability of winning an election held then.

Since then, eleven new polls covering nine states have been released:

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
CA Field Poll 21-Jun 02-Jul 848 3.4 55 37 O+18
FL Rasmussen 09-Jul 09-Jul 500 4.5 45 46 R+1
ME Critical Insights 20-Jun 25-Jun 615 4.0 49 35 O+14
NM WeAskAmerica 09-Jul 10-Jul 1295 2.8 51 40 O+11
NC PPP 05-Jul 08-Jul 775 3.5 47 46 O+1
NC PNA 01-Jul 08-Jul 500 4.4 48 49 R+1
ND Rasmussen 10-Jul 11-Jul 400 5.0 36 51 R+15
PA WeAskAmerica 09-Jul 10-Jul 1227 2.8 47 40 O+7
VA PPP 05-Jul 08-Jul 647 3.9 50 42 O+8
WI Marquette 05-Jul 08-Jul 810 3.5 50.6 43.3 O+7.3
WI PPP 05-Jul 08-Jul 1057 3.3 50 44 O+6

California (+18%) and Maine (+14%) for Obama and North Dakota (+15%) for Romney are strongholds.

I probably shouldn’t be surprised any longer on how solid New Mexico is for Obama at +11%. The polling history backs the new poll up:
ObamaRomney13Jun12-13Jul12New Mexico

Weeks after the unsuccessful recall of their Republican Governor, Wisconsin seems to be holding for Obama. Both new polls have Obama’s lead just outside the margin of error:
ObamaRomney13Jun12-13Jul12Wisconsin

Romney goes up by +1 in this week’s Florida poll, but Obama still takes three of the four current polls for the state. Obama would be expected to win Florida right now with a 91% probability.

Obama and Romney split North Carolina this week at one poll apiece. In the past month of NC polls, Romney takes three and Obama takes two. The simulation analysis suggests that Romney would win the state (now) with a 59.5% probability.

Once again, a Pennsylvania poll puts Obama up. Obama has lead in both Pennsylvania polls taken over the past month. In fact, Obama has led in the past 14 consecutive PA polls—all the way back to early February.

Virginia gives Obama a +8% lead over Romney. But Romney lead by a smaller margin in a much bigger current poll. The two polls, taken together, have the race in a dead tie (Obama won 50,112 times, Romney, 49,888 times). It is difficult discern a solid trend. One could argue Obama maintains an advantage, and one can argue that Romney has turned the state around:

ObamaRomney13Jun12-13Jul12Virginia

So, what would happen if the presidential election was held today?

A Monte Carlo analysis of state head-to-head polls, using the rules of the Electoral College suggests that President Barack Obama would almost certainly beat Mitt Romney.

Now, Obama would receive a mean of 334 (+7) electoral votes to Romney’s 204 (-7). Of the 100,000 simulated elections, Obama won 99,976 times and Romney won 24 times.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

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Romney’s precarious position

by Darryl — Thursday, 7/12/12, 2:08 pm

I’m going to be generous to Mitt Romney today. But first some context.

As his primary opponents predicted earlier this year, Mitt’s Bain Capitol record is coming back to bite him in the assets. The latest (which probably isn’t really the latest in the few minutes it takes me to write this post) comes from The Boston Globe:

Romney has said he left Bain in 1999 to lead the winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, ending his role in the company. But public Securities and Exchange Commission documents filed later by Bain Capital state he remained the firm’s “sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president.”

Also, a Massachusetts financial disclosure form Romney filed in 2003 states that he still owned 100 percent of Bain Capital in 2002. And Romney’s state financial disclosure forms indicate he earned at least $100,000 as a Bain “executive” in 2001 and 2002, separate from investment earnings.

The timing of Romney’s departure from Bain is a key point of contention because he has said his resignation in February 1999 meant he was not responsible for Bain Capital companies that went bankrupt or laid off workers after that date.

Here’s the generous part: Mitt’s account may be correct! It very well may be that he left Bain for Salt Lake City, and psychologically detached from Bain, leaving all of the management in the hands of his trusted partners.

I can imagine a departing speech, perhaps held on a yacht in Boston Harbor:

I’ve got an Olympic-sized corruption scandal and fiscal problems to deal with in SLC. So, I’m taking a leave. I’ll have nothing more to do with running Bain through the end of the Olympics. I leave it to you, my trusted friends, to maximize shareholder profits. (And as the only shareholder, I demand it! [forced laugh.]) If you make the shareholder fabulously wealthy, you will be generously rewarded when I move on to my post-Olympic project…. So for now, you have the helm.

(Exit stage right.)

And maybe Mitt lived up to this ideal. There is even some evidence consistent with this account. In some sense, then he shouldn’t be held accountable for decisions made during his leave. Right?

The political problem for Mitt is that, as Kevin Drum points out, the whole thing just looks icky. Denying responsibility for big decisions while at the same time being listed as “sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president” on multiple SEC filings, makes Mitt look like he is dodging responsibility.

It feels weaselly. Apparently…the buck doesn’t stop with Mitt. (It’s spirited away to a Swiss Bank Account.)

Furthermore, pulling down a salary (even a paltry $100,000) while on leave makes it seem like he was either actively doing something for the company, or skimming without justification.

Either one may be true without tying Mitt to actual decisions (or knowledge of) embarrassing investments and politically damaging layoffs. But, either way, it still looks bad, and people will have to be excused for feeling misled by Mitt.

But here is the deal. I think this Bain thing has left Mitt in a precarious position…and with a much bigger problem.

The problem is that any evidence of decision making at Bain during his leave will make a liar out of Mitt. The evidence so far is good for Mitt. And thousands and thousands of pages of additional documentation may well be released. But proof doesn’t come from negative evidence, so uncertainty will linger.

The flip side is that it will take but one memo, one recording of an invited speech, one email, a telephone recording, or maybe even a handful of disgruntled ex-employees with some personal notes (remember the Veterans who “served with” John Kerry?) to provide a solitary example of Mitt making a major decision for Bain during his leave…and Mitt’s credibility will be decimated.

And worst of all for Mitt, there is a huge incentive to be the first news organization to find it.

The race is on!

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Aaaawwwwwkwarrrrrrd

by Darryl — Wednesday, 7/11/12, 10:42 am

Queue the Red Cross telethon raising money for victims of recent wild fires. Mike Myers cringes as Kanye West breaks script and blurts out:

Black People don’t care for Mitt Romney.

That would pretty much summarize the response Mitt Romney got during his speech before the NAACP today:

(You can watch the whole awkward Romney speech here.)

Says CNN correspondent Jim Acosta:

I have to tell you… I’ve been covering the Romney campaign for a year now[….] I have not heard that kind of sustained booing for Mitt Romney during the course of this campaign. […] This was, perhaps, one of the most negative reactions Mitt Romney has had in the course of his 2012 presidential campaigns.

Here are some photos of the audience reaction.

Last night, the twittersphere was all a-tweet with the hash tag #ThingsRomneyShouldntSayToNAACP‬. You know, things like

Freedom of Teach ‏@FreedomofTeach
My wife drives a couple of Cadillacs, so we have that in common. ‪#ThingsRomneyShouldntSayToNAACP‬

Er. D.-OBAMA2012 ‏@esd2000
‪#ThingsRomneyShouldntSayToTheNAACP‬ I’m a big fan of the Basketball contests you guys all love.

Shrink’g Mdl Class ‏@alohaGOP
“I had a dream too – but mine came true, obviously.” ‪#fakelaugh‬ ‪#ThingsRomneyShouldntSayToNAACP‬

Who knew the ‪#OneThingRomneyReallyShouldntHaveSaid‬ is written into his day-to-day stump speech.

(BTW: You can follow my twitter feed here.)

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McKenna is just fucking with voters now

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/10/12, 7:50 pm

As you may know, our state’s Attorney General, Rob McKenna takes credit for co-founding the state attorneys general lawsuit against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

Apparently, McKenna lost control of the lawsuit, because he repeatedly claimed that he only wanted the “mandate” and the Medicaid provisions thrown out. Indeed, his own official web site claimed that, “This suit will not ‘overturn’ or ‘repeal’ the new health care reform legislation.”

His co-conspirators colleagues saw it differently. The lawsuit ended up asking the courts to strike down the entire law.

So…remember a couple of Thursdays ago when the Supreme Court found the PPACA “mandate” constitutional? That very day, McKenna gave a press conference in has capacity as Attorney General and as one of the instigators of the ill-fated lawsuit against PPACA. Here is a excerpt from the Q&A (video here):

Jim Brunner: Do you support Congress repealing this law […]?

Rob McKenna: This law is not going to be repealed…

Jim Bruner: Do you support it being repealed?

Rob McKenna: No. There are a number of provisions in this law that ought to be maintained.

Okay…he had to be asked a second time when he tried giving a non-answer the first time, but…pretty clear answer, no?

Yesterday, McKenna further “clarified” his position when speaking before Chamber of Commerce in Yakima :

…McKenna said the reports were a misinterpretation by “Seattle media” and that his position on the Affordable Care Act hasn’t changed.

“I wish I had been better prepared with a better articulated response than the one I gave at the press conference,” McKenna told the luncheon audience after an attendee accused him of changing his stance. “Frankly I didn’t think we were going to lose so I wasn’t ready for that question.”

McKenna insisted he was only asked whether Congress would go forward with repealing the act, not whether he thinks it should be repealed.

Huh. The media clearly reported that McKenna didn’t want Congress to repeal the PPACA. So…um, now, under criticism on the other side of the Mountains, McKenna claims the “Seattle Media” misinterpreted him? So…he is suggesting to a more conservative audience that he believes it should be repealed?

So…to further “clarify” exactly how McKenna feels, his campaign manager, Randy Peeple points out:

…McKenna’s position has not changed and that his [forthcoming] op-ed will not be calling for repeal of the health-care law. Instead, he said McKenna will more fully lay out the parts of the law he still has concerns with and how he’d responsibly approach them as governor.

McKenna has continued to warn about the expense of the law’s Medicaid expansion and has said its individual mandate is problematic despite the court’s ruling. (At his June 28 news conference, however, McKenna said the mandate should remain in place “for now” because it is so closely tied to key positive parts of the health-care law.)

So…the “mandate” is problematic (East) but he wants it to remain in place (West).

Come on. He’s just fucking with everyone now!

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/10/12, 2:04 pm

DLBottle
Please join us tonight for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. Tonight the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters meet, and Thursday night Drinking Liberally Bremerton meets. Next Monday there are meetings of the Olympia and Yakima chapters.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including eleven in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by Darryl — Friday, 7/6/12, 11:57 pm

Do you have an offshore bank account?

The Health Care Killing Floors:

  • Bill-O-The-Clown fesses up….
  • Ann Telnaes: The Republican solution to fixing our health care system.
  • Susie Sampson: Health Care and Independence Day.
  • Young Turks: MittFlop #1,712, “Obamacare mandate a tax”.
  • Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Rhode Island edition:
  • Sam Seder: “Katherine Harris” calls to chime in on Obamacare, SCOTUS + More!
  • Even Bill-O-the-Clown mocks Rep. John Boehner.
  • Mark Fiore: RepubliBliss.

Maddow: Ron Paul not out until Nebraska sings.

Obama kicks off a campaign tour.

Pap: The fracking industry’s dirty secrets.

Tom: The Good, The Bad and the Very Very Nasicornously Ugly!

Growing Up:

  • Young Turks: FAUX News rips kid for turning liberal.
  • Lawrence O’Donnell talks to fallen conservative Jonathan Krohn.
  • Young Turks: Conservative Kid Jonathan Krohn evolves into a Liberal.
  • Sam Seder: 13 YO conservative kid pundit Jonathan Krohn…now a 17 YO liberal.
  • End of a Teen Dream (photo essay): The Conservatives who once loved Jonathan Krohn (via TalkingPointsMemo).
  • Slate News: Jonathan Krohn responds to the responses.

The Daily Show explains Wall Street.

Alyona: Rhode Island’s new disclosure act.

Young Turks: Conservative Judge says GOP has become ‘goofy’.

Slate News: Ron Paul’s new crusade.

Sam Seder: Florida Congressman Bill Young (R) pulls a McKenna; tells minimum wage worker to, “Get a job”.

The Onion Week in Review.

Romney’s Romper Room:

  • Slate NewsRomney’s Spanish advertisement FAIL.
  • Thom: Mr. 1% and his offshore millions.
  • Mitt explains the free rider provision.
  • Pap: Romney is in deep with oil lobbyists.
  • Newsy: Murdoch criticism suggests rift with Romney.
  • Sam Seder: Lemon. Wet. Good.
  • Gov. Strickland calls on Mitt to release tax returns.
  • Young Turks: Romney’s abortion clean-up service…investment
  • Roy Zimmerman: Vote Republican, Washington state edition:
  • Thom: Pirate capitalist Romney vs the average Joe.
  • Newsy: Romney camp confused in tax penalty.
  • Sam Seder: Everyone deserves a fair shot if they can afford it.
  • Ann Telnaes: Mitt Flips.
  • ONN: Romney’s numbers skyrocket after prostitute reveals she paid him.
  • Young Turks: Murdoch tweets on Mitt.
  • Liberal Viewer: MSNBC’s false edit of Romney immigration stance.

Obama likes the kid’s hair.

Sam Seder: Rush Limbaugh, “The country went downhill when we let women vote!.

Young Turks: Anti-tax movement burned in Colorado fire.

Thom: more of The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Mother Pitt:

  • Young Turks: Brad Pitt’s mother.
  • Buzz60: MOOoooOmmm!
  • Slate News: The strange case of Brad Pitt and his mother.

White House: West Wing Week.

Maddow: Thaddeus McCotter resigns… weirdly.

Young Turks: Koch brothers helped by ear marks from tea party Congressman.

Thom: Will RI disclosure bill keep out the super PACs?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

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Poll Analysis: Romney slips

by Darryl — Wednesday, 7/4/12, 3:29 pm


Obama Romney
99.9% probability of winning 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 327 electoral votes Mean of 211 electoral votes

Last week’s analysis showed President Barack Obama leading Romney with an average of 323 to 215 electoral votes in a hypothetical election held then. The results suggested Obama had a 99.3% to Romney’s 0.7% probability of winning.

Since then, eleven new polls have been released (although only a couple of the polls were administered after last Thursday’s Supreme Court ruling on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act):

start end sample % % %
st poll date date size MOE O R diff
AL Capital Survey Research Center 06-Jul 06-Sep 841 3.3 33.9 55.8 R+21.9
AZ Rasmussen 26-Jun 26-Jun 500 4.5 41 54 R+13
FL WeAskAmerica 01-Jul 02-Jul 1127 2.9 46.1 45.3 O+0.8
FL Quinnipiac 19-Jun 25-Jun 1200 2.8 45 41 O+4
MA PPP 22-Jun 24-Jun 902 3.3 55 39 O+16
MI Marist 24-Jun 25-Jun 1078 3.0 44 39 O+5
NH Marist 24-Jun 25-Jun 1029 3.0 43 42 O+1
NC Civitas 29-Jun 01-Jul 558 4.2 45 50 R+5
NC Marist 24-Jun 25-Jun 1019 3.1 46 44 O+2
OH Quinnipiac 19-Jun 25-Jun 1237 2.8 47 38 O+9
PA Quinnipiac 19-Jun 25-Jun 1252 2.8 45 39 O+6

Alabama is solid for Romney (+21.9%), as Massachusetts is for Obama (+16%). Arizona is turning into a solid Romney state. He has led in the past five polls, going back to mid-April.

Obama solidifies the three “classic swing states.” In Florida, Obama leads in both polls by +0.8% and +4%. Combined with the one other recent poll, Obama would be expected to take the state now with a 93% probability.

In Ohio, Obama has a +9% in the new poll, giving him the lead in both current OH polls; he would be expected to win the state now with a 99% probability. Romney seemed to made some headway in late May and early June, but that “surge” now seems transient: ObamaRomney04Jun12-04Jul12Ohio

The Ohio story is repeated for Pennsylvania where Obama has a modest +6% lead over Romney, leads in both current polls, and would win with a 99% probability. The difference is a lack of evidence for a transient Romeny surge for the state: ObamaRomney04Jun12-04Jul12Pennsylvania

North Carolina is interesting. Romney goes up +5% in one poll and Obama goes up by +2% in the other new poll. Romney now leads in three of the four current polls, and would be expected to take the state with a 71% probability: ObamaRomney04Jun12-04Jul12North Carolina

Michigan has Obama up by a moderate +5% over Romney. The state has gone from a tie one year ago, to a solid Obama lead since January, back down to a small advantage for Obama in the past few weeks:

ObamaRomney04Jun12-04Jul12Michigan

Finally, the new New Hampshire poll gives Obama a not-so-impressive +1% lead over Romney. Still, the larger trend and the recent flurry of polls has the state painted blue:

ObamaRomney04Jun12-04Jul12New Hampshire

With these new polls (and some older ones dropping out), the Monte Carlo analysis gives Obama wins 99,860 times and Romney wins 140 times (including the 41 ties). Obama receives (on average) 327 (+4) to Romney’s 211 (-4) electoral votes. In an election held now, Obama would win with a 99.9% probability.

Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

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Independence Day open thread

by Darryl — Wednesday, 7/4/12, 9:26 am

NPR reads the Declaration of Independence:

[audio:http://pd.npr.org/anon.npr-mp3/npr/me/2012/07/20120704_me_01.mp3]

Martin Bashir’s Top Lines: Independence day political fireworks.

Keb Mo:

Buzz60: Best 4th of July fails.

Young Turks: Epic Politics Man goes looking for an American-made American flag to celebrate the Fourth of July.

Morgan Freeman:

Big Eddie’s (Ed Schultz’s) barbecue and Obamacare tips for July 4th.

Newsy: July 4th fireworks being cancelled across the U.S.

Note: Tune in at 10:00 AM today on KUOW (94.9 FM) for a one hour Capitol Steps “Politics Takes a Holiday” program.

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McKenna’s flawed temperament

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/3/12, 4:15 pm

It’s bizarre. Really, really bizarre.

Rob McKenna has largely been a cautious politician. He has mastered the technique of being as inoffensive as possible—an absolute necessity for a Republican running for statewide office in Washington state. So, when asked to comment on an inflammatory partisan issue, McKenna skillfully responds with the most vacuous, inoffensive answer imaginable.

But the façade has been showing cracks. They became apparent during McKenna’s gubernatorial kick-off event, when Goldy was barred from entry to the press conference. The campaign was specifically targeting Goldy or The Stranger for exclusion.

What the fuck?!? That’s the kind of petty shit I expect from Tim Eyman, not a serious person asking to be the next Governor of Washington. My impression at the time:

There are warning signs here. The McKenna campaign, right out of the starting gate, is engaging in thuggery. “Open government champion,” my ass.

Two days after McKenna’s kick-off, The Stranger’s Eli Sanders ran into McKenna outside the KUOW studios and asked him about excluding Goldy. McKenna responded:

“I don’t think David Goldstein qualifies as a journalist,” a miffed McKenna told Eli. “He’s a hack. He’s a partisan hack. He’s just there to parrot points from the other side.”

Legally, McKenna is simply wrong. Goldy is a journalist under the laws of our state.

You would think the Attorney General would know that!

(*Crack*)

Then there was the cupcake incident, where McKenna was to give a speech before the King County Young Republicans:

McKenna was about 40 seconds into his talk—he was outlining the state’s dismal job numbers—when a young man in a blue Cougars baseball cap, blue sweat jacket, jeans, and Tevas walked in, sat in the front row, took out a camera and started filming.

McKenna stopped and asked the man who he was with. The man gave his name, Zach Wurtz, and said he was with the Washington State Democrats. The Young Republicans club president, Jennifer Fetters, asked him to leave. Nope. McKenna told Wurtz to turn off the camera. Wurtz refused. McKenna’s voice got sharper, “You need to put the camera away. Now!”

Through the cracks is revealed a peevish—and possibly paranoid—man.

That same mix of peevish and paranoia was seen when he barked, “Get a job!” to Kendra Obom, a woman asking him questions about his position on the Reproductive Parity Act:

McKenna first tried to blow off her question, stating that as a lawyer for the state — he is currently Washington’s attorney general — he wasn’t allowed to comment. Then, apparently flustered, he went after Obom personally, asking her if she thought she was being honest and accusing her of trying to gain a political advantage.

Despite Obom identifying herself as a youth worker, McKenna ends his interaction by telling her “Why don’t you go get a job?”

A candidate has the right to be dickish, of course. Perhaps McKenna was picked on too much in school. Or maybe being a partisan Republican in a moderate’s clothing has rendered him a little skittish and paranoid. But these events strongly suggest that McKenna has serious character flaws that are, at the very least, unseemly in a Governor.

It becomes totally unacceptable when a candidate’s character flaws infect his judgement as a public official. This is precisely what happened last Thursday, when McKenna’s staff specifically targeted Goldy for exclusion from an AG press conference. Goldy’s news editor, Dominic Holden, the person who had assigned Goldy to cover the conference reported:

“They are physically blocking me from entering,” Goldy told me by phone, seven minutes before the 11:30 a.m. press conference was scheduled to begin. A spokesman for McKenna, Dan Sytman, had told Goldy a few minutes before that Goldy wasn’t a journalist and then blocked him from entering. A McKenna staffer had also grabbed Goldy by the shoulders and turned him away from the door.

(*Snap*)

Goldy offers two competing hypotheses:

  1. McKenna wasn’t aware of the legal issues of barring a member of the press (or even the public) from public meetings.
  2. Our State Attorney General, out of some mix of personal vendetta and sense of invulnerability, used his office to illegally intimidate a citizen into giving up his rights.

This latest episode goes beyond “warning sign.” It’s a danger sign. Rob McKenna has some serious flaws in his temperament that make him paranoid and vengeful—to the point of abusing his office.

It is something voters really ought to know about.

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Drinking Liberally — Seattle

by Darryl — Tuesday, 7/3/12, 3:20 pm

It’s Tuesday. So please join us for an evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.




Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night, and Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets this Thursday.

With 227 chapters of Living Liberally, including eleven in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

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