Archives for September 2020

Democratic Governors	Republican Governors
Mean of 23 seats	Mean of 27 seats

There are not many gubernatorial contests this election cycle. I count only eleven. Still, the races we have hold importance in a census year, as Governors sometimes have a degree of control over the redistricting process. There is only polling for nine of these races, but the three states without polling (DE, ND, WV) seem unlikely to flip.

After 100000 simulated elections Democrats have a 0.0% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seat and Republicans have a greater than 99.9% probability of controlling a majority of gubernatorial seats.

Of the nine polled races, the only state with a chance to flip is Montana. Governor Steve Bullock is term limited and running for a Senate seat. Republican Greg Gianforte has the upper hand over Democrat Mike Cooney, with an 87% to 13% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of gubernatorial seats from the simulations:

[Read more…]

Boeing haven’t confirmed it yet, but it looks like they are going to move all 787 production out of Everett. These sorts of moves were probably inevitable as Boeing have shown that breaking the union is their biggest goal.

Still and all, if it isn’t replaced with something, it won’t be good. If not for the pandemic, I wouldn’t be too worried about a return of the will the last person to leave Seattle turn out the lights era. The regional economy is more diverse than it was then. But it is the pandemic. And there aren’t too many good jobs for people without a college education.

In any event, wash your hands right now.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 377 electoral votes	Mean of 161 electoral votes

My analysis last Wednesday showed former Vice President Joe Biden with a solid lead of 380 to President Donald Trump’s 158 electoral votes. There have been 55 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on this race. Also, I’ve corrected a typo in a Florida poll that, combined with other polls, skewed the state slightly toward Biden (see the discussion in the comment thread for more information).

Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 377 to Trump’s 161 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. This shows Trump gaining very slightly. Trump’s gains primarily came from 4 states:

1. A big boost in Georgia (from a 15% to a 59% probability) from three polls with Biden ahead that aged out, and one new poll with Trump up by +1%
2. A slight decrease in Biden’s chances of winning North Carolina, dropping from 71% down to 69%
3. A slight boost in Trump’s chances from 96% to 99% in South Carolina
4. A big boost in Trump’s chances in Texas from 48% to 63%

Biden has seen some gains, as well, in five states and two congressional districts:

1. Trump slips from 70% to 56% after the only recent Alaska poll was released. The poll was done by a Democratic PAC polling the Alaska Senate race, so you are right to be a bit skeptical or, at least, want more polling.
2. Trump slips slightly in Iowa from a 63% to a 58% probability of winning
3. Trump slips a bit from 99% to a 92% probability of taking Kansas as two old polls age out and one new poll gives Trump a modest lead
4. In Maine’s 2nd congressional district, a Trump+1.8% poll drops out and a new poll boosts Biden from 86% to a 92% chance of taking its electoral vote. Biden now leads in all five current polls in the district.
5. Nebraska’s second congressional district gets a second poll that boosts Biden from a 61% to a 86% probability of taking the district
6. Three new Nevada polls, including an astonishing Biden+11% poll from Fox News, raises Biden’s chances from 75% to 98% of taking the state
7. In Ohio, one Trump+5% poll ages out and three new polls, all with Biden in the lead, are released. Biden goes from a 48% to a 63% probability of winning in Ohio

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 28 Sep 2019 to 28 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):

Back to the current analysis, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

[Read more…]

Senate Democrats*	Senate Republicans
greater than 99.9% probability	less than 0.1% probability
Mean of 53 seats	Mean of 47 seats

I suppose it is about time for some analyses of the 2020 races for the U.S. Senate. As with the presidential state head-to-head polls, I’ve been collecting senate head-to-head polls for senate races. We now know the general election candidates in all races except the Georgia 2 special election and the Louisiana senate race, but we’ll be assuming that the Republican incumbents will eventually win these races.

Although these analyses are for each state in which there is a senatorial election, we will aggregate the results to look at the probability that the Senate will remain in the hands of the Republicans or flip to the Democrats. Of course, the third possibility is a 50-50 tie, in which case the outcome of the presidential election determines which party controls the Senate. Given the strength of former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump, I’ll assume ties go to the Democrat, although occasionally I’ll report both ways. Perhaps later on, I’ll change the reporting to systematically include results each way.

As of this afternoon, I’ve collected 361 head-to-head polls in the senate races. For some state there are many polls, like the 66 polls for the N.C. senate race between Republican Sen. Thom Tillis and Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham. For other states, there are not so many polls—like zero polls in Delaware, Massachusetts, Oregon, Nebraska, among others. Idaho and Illinois have only one poll each, and New Jersey only has two polls. Clearly, some states have few, or no, polls because the race isn’t particularly competitive. States with many polls are either competitive, or are interesting for some other reason—perhaps there is a gubernatorial race or it is an important toss-up state in the presidential race. For North Carolina, both are true. When I have no polling in a race, the incumbent wins the state for each simulated election.

Even with 361 polls, I will always use a subset of the most current polls. Right now, my rule is to use polls taken over the past month, but that window may tighten as Nov. 3 approaches.

Let’s get on with it! After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 97,022 times, there were 2,936 ties, and Republicans control the Senate 42 times. By this analysis, if the election was held today, Democrats would have a 100.0% probability of controlling the Senate. If we have a Republican Vice President, the probability drops to 97% for Democrats and 3% for Republicans.

There is only one state likely to go from Democrat to Republican, and that is Alabama. Tommy Tuberville (R) has led in all 7 polls ever taken in this race, and he is likely to unseat Sen. Doug Jones.

There are three states likely to flip from Republican to Democrat: Arizona, Colorado, and North Carolina. In Arizona, former astronaut Mark Kelly (D) has led Sen. Martha McSally (R) in all 15 polls taken in the past month. He has led in almost all of the 66 polls taken in this race going back to early last year.

In Colorado, former Governor John Hickenlooper has led in all eleven polls taken in this race going back to Aug 2019. Many of the polls showed a double digit lead for Hickenlooper.

And then there is North Carolina, where Cunningham (D) has led Tillis (R) in all 21 polls taken in the last month—one of the polls is a near tie with Cunningham up 322 “votes” to 320. We have to go back 43 polls, all the way back to June to find a poll where Tillis leads Cunningham, but only by a single “vote”: 474 to 473. Cunningham leads in a majority of older polls going back to June of 2019.

In the toss-up category, we have a surprising number of states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, and South Carolina. In Alaska, the most recent poll is tied, but the two older polls had Sen Dan Sullivan (R) leading Al Gross (D). The most recent poll in Iowa is also a tie, but going back to June, Sen Joni Ernst (R) has only carried two polls while her challenger Theresa Greenfield (D) has led in 10 polls.

In Kansas there is also a tie in the most recent poll. But Roger Marshall (R) has led Barbara Bollier (D) by 1% margins in the three polls taken since June. Mississippi is a surprise tie. Sen Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is being challenged by Mike Espy (D). The only current poll has Hyde-Smith up by 1%. There were 5 previous polls, all taken before June, where Hyde-Smith had a solid lead. We definitely need more polling in Mississippi!

South Carolina is one of the most interesting of the senate races. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) is being challenged by Jamie Harrison. Graham led Harrison through March, but since then, there have been three ties, Graham has had (mostly) small leads in 5 polls, and Harrison has had a small lead in one of the most recent polls.

Finally, the Georgia race between Sen. David Perdue (R) and Jon Ossoff (D) is close enough to merit mention. Perdue has led in the most recent five polls, but there were two ties, and Ossoff led in one poll before that, all within the last month. Perdue has the momentum for now, and the simulated results give him a 84% probability of keeping his seat.

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

[Read more…]

I got the flu shot last week. Was into and out of the pharmacy faster than it has ever been before. And now I will be less likely to catch or pass on another deadly virus. Still have to deal with COVID-19.

So wash your hands right now.

Trevor: No officers indicted for the shooting of Breonna Taylor.

Conan reads a Christmas tale for 2020

WaPo: The origins of policing in America.

Biden-Harris 2020:

• J-L Cauvin: Трамп destroys Playboy reporter and will fight election results.
• Stephen: Biden’s social team pounces on Трамп’s “You’ll never see me again” promise
• Full Frontal: Predicting the Republican’s 2020 October surprise
• Bill Maher: Трамп’s not leaving
• Trevor: How Трамп is planning on winning the election no matter what
• Jimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel knows how to get Трамп to leave. Marry him!
• Francesca Fiorentini: Will anti-Blackness win another election?

• J-L Cauvin: Трамп attacks Barack Obama’s voter registration day message
• Jonathan Mann: Dotard Трамп is gonna steal the election
• Seth Meyers: Трамп refuses to commit to peaceful transition of power
• Conan: Michelle Obama—Every vote absolutely matters
• Trevor: The Dotard refuses to guarantee a peaceful transfer of power
• Jimmy Fallon: Chelsea Clinton calls 2020 the most important election of our lifetime
• Full Frontal: Mitt Romney is not a hero
• Bill Maher: Bernie Sanders says, “Listen to what Трамп is saying.”
• Jimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel breaks down Трамп’s plan to steal the election
• Stephen: Трамп wants to undermine your faith in the election so you don’t vote him out
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп is bribing senior citizens for votes!
• The Late Show: Worried Трамп won’t leave the White House if he loses the election?

Liberal Viewer: FAUX News Anchor Trace Gallagher fails live math and geography tests within 3 minutes.

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Treasonweasels and Despot Wannabes:

• Mark Fiore: The hypocritical oath
• John Di Domenico: Трамп BLASTS the soup nazi, MELTS DOWN and REFUSES to wear a mask! No mask no soup!
• Our Cartoon President: Cartoon Трамп gets crate trained
• VICE News: The Dotard is obsession with genetic superiority and bloodlines
• Bruce W. Nelson: “F-U-T-R-M-P” (Filling Unstructured Time Recording Mangy’s Piano):

• The Late Show: What makes New York City an anarchist jurisdiction?
• Desi Lydic checks in on her Трамп-obsessed uncle Lou Dobbs
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп’s crazy summer
• SongBird: Exploding trees
• Stephen: The Dotard Трамп really is America’s racist uncle, administration sources confirm
• Now This: Трамп’s first term by the numbers
• J-L Cauvin: Trump crushes Obamacare with his America First Healthcare Plan
• Bruce W. Nelson: A salute to men with tiny dix
• Stephen: “Not untruthful…incompetent”—Rep. Katie Porter on Трамп officials when they testify before Congress

Conan: QAnon News Break—Santa Claus edition

Americans for Decency: Lying liars lie—Ted Snooze, Inc.

Vox: How US abortion policy targets the poor.

RIP RBG:

• The Late Show: Lindsey Graham’s words used against him
• Conan: Michelle Obama remembers justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg
• Trevor: The inspiring life of Ruth Bader Ginsburg
• Jimmy Fallon remembers Ruth Bader Ginsburg
• Samantha Bee: How we can protect the notorious legacy of RBG
• WaPo: Who is Amy Coney Barrett, Трамп’s expected Supreme Court nominee?
• Seth Meyers: Ways to delay a Supreme Court confirmation vote
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard announces his five finalists to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg!
• Stephen: Saying goodbye to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, an American hero
• Trevor: The political war over Justice Ginsburg’s Supreme Court seat
• The Late Show: The hypocrisy hippo wastes his time calling out Ted Cruz
• Jimmy Fallon: So you want to be a Supreme Court Justice?
• The Foundation Singers: I am Ruth!:

• Seth Meyers: Трамп and GOP rush to fill Ginsburg’s seat despite 2016 hypocrisy
• Roll Call: Is there enough time to confirm a Supreme Court nominee by November?
• VICE News: How the Senate power play for RBG’s SCOTUS seat could end
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп selects Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court
• Jonathan Mann: Give the people a voice in filling this vacancy
• Trevor with Dahlia Lithwick: Is the Supreme Court broken?
• The Late Show: Dumbass detective investigates Трамп’s RBG claim
• Bruce W. Nelson: On the passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg

Samantha Bee: It’s about time we banned private detention centers Pt., 1

Samantha Bee: It’s about time we banned private detention centers Pt., 2

The ТрампPlague:

• The Late Show: Dr. Anthony Fauci hulks out on Rand Paul
• Trevor: Dr. Anthony Fauci getting politics out of public health
• Now This: Dr. Fauci vs. Rand Paul on coronavirus “herd immunity”
• Seth Meyers: Трамп says COVID “affects virtually nobody” as death toll hits 200,000
• The Parody Project: Lazin’ on a COVID afternoon:

• Trevor asks Bob Woodward Why he kept Трамп’s coronavirus comments secret
• Lauren Mayer: C.D.C.
• Stephen: Трамп’s disregard for human life has resulted in 200K deaths and CDC guidance that can’t be trusted
• Trevor: The Pandemmy Awards winners
• Seth Meyers: Other mail-in voting excuses

Dulcé Sloan: What is the monetary cost of police brutality? Billions.

Conan: Get a healthy dose of reality with Realitrex

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I am very uncomfortable with Pac 12 football starting again. The expanded testing is good, but geez so many of the programs that have started playing games have met with pretty serious problems. I can’t imagine there not being a major outbreak in one, and probably several, of the teams.

I certainly don’t want to blame individual players who want to play. To lose a whole year is awful. But it’s got to be up to governments and institutions to step in for public health.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 380 electoral votes	Mean of 158 electoral votes

Some 40 new state head-to-head polls have been released since my previous analysis was posted last Friday. Many of the new polls have been taken partially or fully after the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, an event that could possibly change the dynamics of the Presidential race between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump. If so, it has not affected the expected outcome of a (hypothetical) election held now.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 380 to Trump’s 158 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

Last week’s analysis gave Biden 389 and Trump 149 electoral votes (on average) so, for the moment, Biden has stopped gaining electors, although it is too early to say that Trump has the momentum going forward. With newly released polls, Trump made modest gains in Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district (13% to 39% probability of winning that district’s elector) and Texas (22% to 48% probability of winning the state). He made smaller gains in Georgia (12% to 15%), North Carolina (23% to 29%) and South Carolina (92% to 96%). At the same time, Trump lost modest ground in Alabama (100% to 77%) and Louisiana (100% to 87%) and lost a bit of ground in Iowa (66% to 63%).

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Biden (full distribution here):

• 369 electoral votes with a 2.55% probability
• 360 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability
• 413 electoral votes with a 2.05% probability
• 389 electoral votes with a 2.00% probability
• 407 electoral votes with a 1.78% probability
• 375 electoral votes with a 1.78% probability
• 397 electoral votes with a 1.68% probability
• 385 electoral votes with a 1.66% probability
• 406 electoral votes with a 1.57% probability
• 395 electoral votes with a 1.54% probability

The long term trend in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 23-Sep-2019 to 23-Sep-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (when possible…see the FAQ).

[Read more…]

The judicial norms breaking is leading nowhere good. But unilateral norms breaking seems bad too. So here is my proposal if the Republicans nominate and approve a Justice to replace RBG and Democrats get a trifecta.

First off, do the maximum judicial stuff. Add 100 seats to the Supreme Court. Strip the lower courts of power, replace them with a different system, and fill that with liberal judges. The whole 9 yards.

While this is happening, propose an amendment to the Constitution. Many states have commissions or other means of making judicial appointments fair. Pick the best one and adopt it. It also fires all judges except for cases they are working on. If Republicans want a cease fire, they can pass the amendment, if not at least there will be a liberal court for a while.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Anarchy. Anarchy anarchy anarchy. Anarchy. ANARCHY.

Wash your hands right now.

act.tv: RFK’s ripple of hope still matters today.

Eleven Films: Unite against the violence.

Biden-Harris 2020:

• Trevor: Biden’s “Despacito” outreach & Трамп’s disastrous town hall
• Now This: Former Pence staffer slams Трамп and endorses Biden
• Randy Rainbow: I won’t vote Трамп!

• WaPo: Democrats flipped the House in 2018. Can they keep it in 2020?
• The Daily Show: Трамп Eviscerates Трамп
• Samantha Bee: The importance of down ballot races, Pt. 1
• Samantha Bee: The importance of down ballot races, Pt. 2
• Meidas Touch: Bring back hope
• Stephen: Трамп lied to undecided voters at Philadelphia town hall, then shared a doctored video of Joe Biden
• Foundation Singers: If you love this country:

• Seth Meyers: Stacey Abrams has a plan to make sure every vote counts
• Trevor: Sen. Jon Tester on how to get rural voters to support Biden
• Samantha Bee: Work those poles

Stephen: Journalist Jacob Soboroff on children being tortured inside America’s immigration detention centers.

Now This: Women in ICE custody say they were subjected to unwanted hysterectomies

Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.

RIP RBG:

• Now This: Legendary Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg dies at 87
• WaPo: Ruth Bader Ginsburg dies at 87—Remembering her life and career
• New York Times: Remembering Ruth Bader Ginsburg
• Meidas Touch: Demand decency.
• Really American: No new justices
• Bill Maher on RGB
• WaPo: What Senate Republicans have said about filling a Supreme Court vacancy
• Now This: Joe Biden on filling RBG’s Supreme Court Seat

WaPo: Understanding WeChat, the essential Chinese social media app.

Vice News: This Texas County is taking the drive-thru model for voting.

Solana Rice and Jeremie Greer: Racism is profitable

The Dotard Трамп and Other Murderous Despot Wannabes:

• The Late Show: Трамп’s many contradictions are revealed on Bob Woodward’s audio tapes
• Trevor: Author Mychal Denzel Smith on how to recover from Трамп
• Stephen: Трамп says “I do” to Joe Rogan’s debate challenge, but will he accept Stephen’s counter offer?
• John Di Domenico: Exploding trees, science doesn’t know and wet, deep water in the Pacific
• act.tv: FAUX News really does run Трамп and his presidency…and then he goes golfing
• Trevor: Трамп disowns blue states & AG Barr says slavery is back
• The Late Show: The Dotard Трамп knows more than science
• The Protest Films: No more Трамп
• J-L Cauvin: The Dotard ends the 1619 Project!
• The Late Show: The Dotard Трамп called out by Jack Frost
• Seth Meyers: Late Night White House press briefing
• The Late Show: A concussed panda replaces Steve Doocy on FAUX & Friends
• WaPo: How Bill Barr has misled the public under Трамп
• Daily Show: Don Трамп the science-ish guy: Wildfires
• The Late Show: Secret recipe revealed for Трамп’s dry-aged health care bill
• SongBird: The ten Трамп commandments (A Трамп parody)
• Stephen: Трамп denies climate science in fire-scarred California, echoing his downplaying of COVID-19
• Meidas Touch: Pedo Трамп
• The Late Show: Real Americans challenge The Dotard Трамп with questions we all wish we could ask
• Jimmy Fallon: New episode of “Talk like Трамп”
• The Daily Show: What was The Dotard asked about?
• PrioritiesUSA: “America first”
• Conan: The Трамп “Book of the Day” club.
• Mark Fiore: Denialism—Not just for climate change anymore
• Bruce W. Nelson: Трамп lets Woodward know he’s a horrible guy:

• Meidas Touch: The Трамп depression—The economy does better under the Democrats
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп wishes a happy Rosh Hashanah
• WaPo: How Трамп repeatedly disparages climate science
• Seth Meyers: Трамп’s ABC town hall was filled with lies
• The Late Show: The Dotard Трамп Jr. inspires Middle Ages torture device
• Don Winslow Films: #TrumpIsNotLikeYou

Stephen: Journalist Jacob Soboroff—Americans are not paying attention to atrocities happening in our immigration system.

Courtney Jaye: Ted has no balls

Vox: What long voting lines in the US really mean

ТрампPlague:

• Seth Meyers: Трамп holds indoor Nevada rally as pandemic and wildfires rage
• Now This: The Dotard suggests COVID-19 deaths in blue states shouldn’t count
• Really American: Трамп wants to infect us
• Bill Maher: Herd mentality
• Francesca Fiorentini: American individualism is killing us
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп is enraged over Barack Obama’s new book
• Roll Call: Four takeaways from Redfield’s COVID-19 testimony
• Trevor: Travel in the time of coronavirus
• Meidas Touch: Трамп lied 200K died
• Bruce W. Nelson: Keep calm and covid on! (Трамп’s most profound thoughts to avoid panicking)
• Lewis Black’s survival guide for New Yorkers stuck in suburbia
• Jimmy Fallon: Трамп on vaccine, and covid-19 deaths
• Lauren Mayer: Herd mentality:

• Really American: Трамп hid the truth
• Seth Meyers: Трамп blames “blue states” for COVID deaths
• J-L Cauvin: Трамп destroys covid in Nevada speech
• Stephen: Трамп blames blue states for covid death rate while Bill Barr compares lockdowns to slavery
• Jonathan Mann: Anti-mask rally in St. George, Utah (remix)
• Meidas Touch: Experts vs. The Dotard—Трамп is a one trick phony
• Trevor: Трамп’s illegal indoor rally & a COVID-positive college party
• Our Cartoon President: Cartoons Eric & Don Jr. invent a COVID-19 vaccine
• PrioritiesUSA: Responsibility

BuzzFeed: How the stock market works in under 8 minutes

Naomi Ekperigin (Full Frontal): From memes to movement—Is Instagram activism getting us anywhere?

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 389 electoral votes	Mean of 149 electoral votes

My previous analysis was before the conventions. Now, roughly a month after the conventions, any movement from the conventions should become apparent.

To assess an election held today, we simulate 100,000 elections using the past month of polls as “current” and only using older polls if there are no current polls. From that exercise, Joe Biden won all 100,000. Biden received (on average) 389 to Donald Trump’s 149 electoral votes, a modest improvement for Biden from the 378 to 160 electoral vote lead he had at the end of July. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 18 Sep 2019 to 18 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).

Clearly, Biden has the lead and the momentum at this point in the election season, with his expected electoral vote total tending to climb since January. Details for the the most recent simulation is found below the fold.

[Read more…]

Congratulations to the Attorney General’s victory in the Post Office case. Long term, we’ll have to staff the Post Office with people who aren’t dedicated to destroying it.

Anyway, wash your hands right now.

Are you surviving the smoke? It’s pretty gross. I live in the urban core, and according to Google Maps the farthest building I could see from my window is less than half a mile. And even that is an improvement from earlier in the week.

If you have to work outside, or go outside for any reason, I feel for you. Gross, gross, gross.

And, you still have to wash your hands. So wash your hands right now.

Gaaah, look at how late this post is.

Wash your hands right now.