Archives for August 2016

Clinton	Trump
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 337 electoral votes	Mean of 201 electoral votes

The Monte Carlo analysis of state head-to-head polls last week showed Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump in electoral votes by an average of 325 to 213, and with Clinton having a 99.7% probability of winning an election held then.

Since then, 24 new polls have been released in 13 states. Some states have multiple polls, for example, Florida with five and New Hampshire with three.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,999 times and Trump wins the single Electoral College outcome that was a tie. Clinton received (on average) 337 to Trump’s 201 electoral votes. The results suggest that, in an election held now, Clinton would have a near 100.0% probability of winning.

Here is how the race has evolved in some key states.

Florida gains five new polls that solidly favor Clinton (+3%, +6%, +1%, +5%, and +9%). The new polls move Florida from a 67.1% probability of a Clinton victory last week to a 98.2% probability now.

Georgia flips from light blue to light red. Of the seven current polls, Clinton leads in only two of polls. Last week Clinton only had a 68.6% probability of taking the state. That has now shrunk to a 24.2% probability.

Maine gets one new poll that shows Clinton up by +10% and with 100% probability of taking the state. Unfortunately, the new poll does not provide congressional district results. The last poll that did that was from June, and showed Trump with a slight lead in one district. It would be great to get some polling in ME CDs.

New Hampshire gets three new polls (and one aging out). The oldest poll shows Trump with a +9% margin, but Clinton has the lead in the last four polls by +15%, +13%, +10%, and +9%. Clinton goes from a 38% probability of taking the state last week to a 99.9% probability this week.

One new North Carolina poll pushes Clinton from a 50.1% probability of taking the state to a 90.8% probability. She leads in the most recent two of the three current polls.

Ohio loses one poll that aged out, and has shrunk Clinton’s chances from 81% to 65%. Clinton leads in three polls (+4%, +4%, +2%) and Trump leads in one (+3%). The result is a near toss-up

South Carolina finally gets a current poll, but Trump is only up by +2% in the new poll. This small lead gives him a 72.6% probability of winning the state today.

In Virginia, two new polls come in and one old one ages out. Clinton leads in the most recent three polls by double digits with Trump leading (+4%) in the oldest poll. Clinton would almost certainly win Virginia in an election now.

Washington state gets a current poll that gives Clinton a +19% lead. Needless to say, she approaches a 100% probability of winning the state right now.

Last week, the most recent Wisconsin poll was from Marquette University taken in mid-July. Clinton was up +4.1%. Marquette just released their August poll and Clinton now has a +14% lead over Trump. The results suggest she would take Wisconsin with a 99.7% probability today.

The distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] shows all possible Electoral College outcomes:
[Read more…]

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics over a drink at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally. All are welcomed—no ideological purity tests involved.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings this week. Tonight, the Tri-Cities and Vancouver, WA chapters also meet. The Lakewood chapter meets on Wednesday. And on Thursday, the Tacoma, Bremerton, and Spokane chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Seattle, we need to talk about standing. Like, how are we all so bad at it. I don’t understand, for example, how we’ve figured out the stand on the right thing for the escalators in the U-District and Capitol Hill stations but no where else. I assume most of the people getting off at one of those two stations use another station. It’s not just people traveling between the two of them (and I guess the surface level ones). There must be people who go from University Street to the University District, leave standing on the right and then come back, and get out of the bus tunnel standing on the left. This is not OK.

But that’s an old complaint on this blog. Another thing I’m seeing now is people standing in front of stuff. I was at the Seattle Art Museum and their Graphic Masters exhibit. A lot of the pieces were quite small, so you had to get your face into it and take your time. I have no problem with this, and in fact, Seattle folks should do more of it at SAM and other museums. But it did mean that toward the beginning there was a bit of a line. Anyway, in front of me two people start talking about what phone they use. Have that conversation if you want, but don’t do it standing in front of a piece of art you can’t see without getting close up, for God’s sake. Take two steps back.

And, I’ve seen this sort of thing a few times recently. I think part of is is the Seattle chill, that we don’t call them on it. I also think is generally good. I’d rather wait a minute than have a conversation with a stranger. All I want is for everyone to not get in people’s way when you’re standing.

A future Open Thread will probably deal with how bad we are as a city at walking.

1 Corinthians 7:9
It is better to marry than to burn.

Discuss.

No cure for lobbying addiction.

Thom: The Good, the Bad & the Very Very Reboanticly Ugly!

Sen. Rubio (R-FL) Zika virus no excuse to get an abortion

Thom: Where are the Koch brothers?

White House: West Wing Week.

David Hawkings’ Whiteboard:Is August recess work or play?

Most hated candidates ever.

This Week’s Drumpf Blooper Reel:

• Jimmy Dore: Donald Drumpf suggests Clinton be assassinated.
• David Pakman: Drumpf would ban Porn if elected President.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf suggests assassination.
• PsychoSuperMom: You built this idiot:

• Farron Cousins: GOP rats abandon the ship they built.
• Young Turks: What is the most offensive thing Drumpf has said.
• Chris Hayes: Khizr Khan responds to latest attacks
• Jimmy Dore: Obama and Clinton founded ISIS says Donald Drumpf.
• Young Turks: Drumpf gets his Twitter taken away.
• Sam Seder: Are we sure Drumpf isn’t a liberal plant?
• David Pakman: Drumpf prepares to chicken out on debates with Hillary
• Trevor Noah: Trump’s ‘Second Amendment’ comment is a dangerous joke
• Jimmy Dore: Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) won’t vote for Drumpf.
• Young Turks: Drumpf would try U.S. citizens at Gitmo.
• Steve Kornacki: Trump gives away the game on outrageous talk
• Larry Wilmore: Talkin’ about Drumpf
• David Pakman: Immigrant Melania Drumpf was likely working in US illegally
• Young Turks: Drumpf tries to defend his 2nd amendment comments.
• Thom: Greenpeace decimates Drumpf’s energy plan.
• Steve Kornacki: “Obama is the founder if ISIS.”
• Young Turks: Drumpf talks about Detroit “titties” during major economic speech.
• Jimmy Dore: Drumpf does an entire speech off a Teleprompter.
• David Pakman: Secret Service has words with Drumpf’s campaign.
• Jimmy Dore: Rudy Guiliani defends Drumpf over assassination call.
• Farron Cousins: What the hell is wrong with Drumpf supporters?!?
• Bill Maher to Rick Santorum: No shame in punting
• Young Turks: National Security officials turn on Drumpf.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf says Obama founded ISIS
• Chris Hayes: Drumpf Vs. local paint store
• David Pakman: Polls aren’t skewed…Drumpf is losing badly.
• Nikki Glaser: Let’s talk about sex…because Drumpf is
• Steve Kornacki: Donald Trump raises specter of assassination
• Daily Show: What the actual fact—Donald Drumpf lays out his economic plan
• Bill Maher: New Rule…Priority fail.
• Young Turks: Historians are aware of a liar like Donald Drumpf.
• David Pakman: Trump speaking at outrageous & disgusting anti-gay conference
• Jimmy Dore: CNN host tells Drumpf supporter “Stop hurting the country”
• Sam Seder: Drumpf loses 3 of “The Five” on his assassination call
• Larry Wilmore: Drumpf Dump
• David Pakman: Unhinged Donald Drumpf says Obama literally founded ISIS
• Jimmy Dore: Don Lemon calls Drumpf supporter a liar over 2nd Amendment comment
• Michelle:

• Young Turks: Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) can’t support Drumpf.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf doubles down on “Obama founder of ISIS” nonsense.

Mark Fiore: Who’s on whose side?

Bill Maher: Future headlines.

Steve Kornacki: Hillary Clinton outreach to GOP makes left uneasy .

New Scientist: The brain’s waste removal system.

FAUX Fallout:

• Young Turks: FAUX News’s “Black Room”
• Pap and Sam: Roger Ailes’ perverted brain will pollute FAUX News forever.
• Young Turks: Andrea Tantaros breaks silence on Roger Ailes
• David Pakman: Apparently, audio tapes exist of Ailes’ harassment.

Mental Floss: Why are there 24 hours in a day?

Did Clinton lie about her emails?

Red State Update: Will Trump debate Clinton? Julian Assange & murdered DNC staffer!

BrideGate Lies:

• Steve Kornacki: Gov. Chris Christie lied according to staff text messages.
• Sam Seder: Chris Christie flat out lied during Bridgegate.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

There has been a long time where people would say about Trump, that you might not like his positions, but at least he tells it like it is. Of course that was always bullshit, Mexico isn’t sending rapists, and we can’t build a wall with their money just because. At the time, he was several years into his investigation of Obama’s birth certificate. So no. He never told it like it is. But now that he’s saying that he sees planes full of Iranian bribes that don’t exist, and that Obama founded Islamic State, can we please stop saying that? Thanks!

Clinton	Trump
99.3% probability of winning	0.7% probability of winning
Mean of 325 electoral votes	Mean of 213 electoral votes

The previous analysis showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by an average of 309 to 229 electoral votes, giving Clinton a 97% probability of winning an election held then.

There have been 33 new polls released since then, many of them from electorally “interesting” states. So now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,315 times and Trump wins 685 times (including the 169 ties). Clinton received (on average) 325 to Trump’s 213 electoral votes. In an election held now, we would expect Clinton to win with a 99.3% probability and Trump with a 0.7% probability.

A number of states are worth examining in more detail.

Florida has a couple of new polls and three polls that “aged out” from the last analysis. One poll has the candidates tied up, and the other has Clinton up +4.4. The net result is that Clinton’s probability of winning has gone from 37% to 67%. This is still very nearly a tie, but the state moves from light red to light blue.

The raw polling results paint a picture of a state that “swings.”

[Read more…]

I’m going on vacation pretty soon. I plan to keep up the contingent of nonsense Open Threads, and then hopefully when I get back, to start posting more.

Anyway, do you have any recommendations for light summer reading? Beach read or airplane. I have this on hold from the library, but I’m not sure it’s going to arrive in time.

Please join us tonight for an evening of politics under the influence at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking liberally.

We meet tonight and every Tuesday at the Roanoke Park Place Tavern, 2409 10th Ave E, Seattle. You’ll find us in the small room at the back of the tavern. We start at 8:00pm.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings happening over the next week. Tonight, the Federal Way, Tri-Cities and Redmond chapters also meet. On Thursday, the Kent chapter meets. Finally, on Monday, the Aberdeen and Yakima chapters meet.

There are 185 chapters of Living Liberally, including twenty in Washington state, three in Oregon and one in Idaho. Find, or go out and start, a chapter near you.

Not sure why, but this this thread seems to have been eaten. Here we go again: I enjoyed Seafair, but would prefer it not have the Blue Angels. I also took a tour of one of the Navy ships. It was interesting, but I’d prefer to live in a world where we didn’t have any.

Deuteronomy 32:42
I will make mine arrows drunk with blood, and my sword shall devour flesh; and that with the blood of the slain and of the captives, from the beginning of revenges upon the enemy.

Discuss.

Jimmy Dore: WA-7-CD progressive candidate Pramila Jayapal gets Bernie’s blessing.

Thom: Most disturbing climate change events we have seen yet.

The Devil and Stephen Colbert:

Jimmy Dore: The story (and meta-story) behind the Iran cash drop story.

The Drumpf Implosion:

• Jonathan Mann: Drumpf Remix
• Stephen with the F WERD
• Drumpf, Putin, and Russia
• Our Country
• Jimmy Dore: Fareed Zakaria calls Drumpf a ‘bullshit artist’ on CNN
• Young Turks: “I’m afraid the election’s going to be rigged.”
• Sam Seder: Drumpf inexplicably lists his worst campaign gaffes during a rally
• David Pakman: Drumpf suggests US-Russia alliance to fight ISIS (like the one that has existed for a year).
• Young Turks: Drumpf makes up makes up Iran story after watching FAUX News
• James Corden: Donald Drumpf’s ‘I’m about to eat’ face
• Stephen: Obama has a scandal, but Drumpf spoke today.
• Drumpf Ghostwriter Blasts Art of the Deal in hilarious Tweet
• David Pakman: Dangerous or stupid? Drumpf brags about watching “top secret” “Iran” video
• Stephen: Forget what you heard…there’s good news from the Drumpf campaign.
• Young Turks: Is Melania Drumpf an illegal immigrant?
• Liberal Viewer: Scariest Donald Drumpf fact yet?
• Young Turks: Draft dodger Drumpf gets purple heart.
• Sam Seder: Draft dodger Drumpf accepts some poor guy’s Purple Heart
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Melania’s immigration problem.
• Stephen: The returns of the Drumpf bully kid
• Kimmel: Drunk Drumpf on Harrisburg, PA
• Stephen: Cartoon Drumpf might skip debates.
• Sam Seder: Obama states that Drumpf is unfit.
• James Corden and Denis Leary: Drumpf’s an asshole:

• Seth Meyers: Stay out of it, Democrats
• Young Turks: Drumpf plummets in new polls following series of disasters.
• Stephen: How Drumpf eats KFC
• Farron Cousins: GOP racism and oppression didn’t start with Drumpf.
• David Pakman: Lunatic Drumpf spox forced to backtrack…
• Captured
• Sam Seder: Drumpf asked a foreign policy advisor 3 times why we don’t use nuclear weapons
• Maddow: Whatever his faults, the GOP is letting down Mr. Drumpf
• Young Turks: Drumpf asks about using Nukes.
• Jimmy Dore: Prominent GOPer wonders why there aren’t more defectors.
• Thom: Obama says, “Dump Drumpf”
• Farron Cousins: Drumpf is already making excuses for his defeat..
• Sam Seder: Drumpf boots a baby.
• Watch Drumpf supporters make other decisions
• Stephen: For Donald Drumpf, every day is opposite day.
• Young Turks: Crying baby.
• Seth Meyers: A Closer Look at Drumpf’s very bad week
• Red State Update: Drumpf Kicks Baby Out! Drumpf Won’t Endorse Paul Ryan! Drumpf Wants Nukes!
• David Pakman: “GOP Nominates Dangerous Insane Person, Now Panic Because He’s Dangerously Insane”
• Drumpf Danger
• Jimmy Kimmel: Donald Drumpf’s remarks are well prepared.
• Sam Seder: Drumpf thinks Rick Scott has zika under control.
• Farron Cousins: Drumpf wants to know why we can’t use nukes.
• Paul Manafort was in a meeting that hasn’t happened yet So he knows Drumpf didn’t ask about nukes
• Mark Fiore: Drumpf’s ultimate sacrifice
• Maddow: Donald Drumpf’s behavior sends GOP into panic
• Stephen: Is there ANYONE Drumpf won’t attack?
• David Pakman: Why won’t Drumpf release his tax returns?

Hillary gets psyched for the Olympics.

Jimmy Dore: Bill-O-the-Clown on the silver lining in slavery.

Stephen: Cartoon Hillary on her disappearance.

Thom: The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Seriously Ugly!

MinutePhysics: How long is a sun day?

Jimmy Dore: Political jokes of the week.

Roy Zimmerman: “Burn, Goody Clinton”:

Young Turks: Kansas proves Republican policies don’t work.

G.O.P. Voter Suppression Laws Get Stuck Down:

• Sam Seder: NC & WI courts strike racist voting laws.
• Farron Cousins: Repressive Republican woting laws are getting decimated in court

Thom: Is Congress stalking Greenpeace with Subpoenas?

Can a third-party candidate ever become President?

Jimmy Kimmel interviews Morgan Freeman narrating a Hillary Clinton campaign video.

Slate: Corey Lewandowski is a complete disaster on CNN.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

I like Bob Ferguson and his work against Comcast being assholes. But I’m not sure Batman is the best analogy. Bruce Wayne really should be using his money on other things if he wants the best return on investment. Ferguson is pretty much doing best for the customers. I’d rather read about Batman (no offense, Bob) but live in a state with Ferguson as AG (no offense Bruce).

Clinton	Trump
97.0% probability of winning	3.0% probability of winning
Mean of 309 electoral votes	Mean of 229 electoral votes

There have been eight new polls released since last week’s analysis, including PA, VA, NV, a pair in GA and a pair in AZ. The previous analysis had Hillary Clinton with a 97.8% probability of winning and election then. Donald Trump had a 2.2% of winning.

This week, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,010 times and Trump wins 2,990 times (including the 459 ties). Clinton received (on average) 309 to Trump’s 229 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.0% probability of winning and Trump would have a 3.0% probability of winning.

There aren’t many changes with only eight polls in six states, but a few are worth noting.

In Arizona, three polls have aged out and there are two new polls, one with Clinton up +2 and the other with Trump up +7.5. The net is a small bump for Trump. This is similar in Georgia, where two new polls (Trump +0.2 and Trump +3) join an existing poll (Trump + 2) to boast Trump’s chances in the state.

We have one new poll in Nevada (Clinton +1) that, combined with two existing polls (Trump +5 and Clinton +4), bumps Clinton’s chances. Trump went from 68% probability down to a 59% probability. Essentially, Nevada is a tie.

Finally, Virgina has one new poll (Trump +4) with three existing polls (Clinton +5, Clinton +7, Trump +0.4). Clinton’s probability has dropped slightly from 94% to 82%.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Were the primary election results everything you hoped for? I’m glad in the 7th, we’ll get 2 fairly liberal Democratic candidates. We’ll wait to see what two. I was hoping for a better turnout for Angie Marx, but maybe it was inevitable when a legislator stepped in. In any event, more results will come in over then next few weeks.