Archives for July 2012

Strategies 360 has released a new poll for the new Washington first congressional district. The poll of 500 likely voters (4.4 MOE) was conducted from 15 to 17 July.

Here are the results (with “leaners”):

• Koster (R) 36%
• Burner (D) 12%
• DelBene (D) 11%
• Hobbs (D) 7%
• Ruderman (D) 3%
• Rauniyar (D) 1%
• Ishmael (I) 2%
• Other candidate 2%
• DK/NA/Refused 26%

A couple of points. Susan DelBene has certainly moved up since the previous poll, but Darcy Burner still maintains a small edge.

Laura Ruderman, who seems to generate as much “buzz”—even before MotherGate—as Burner and DelBene, is surprisingly weak at 3%.

John Koster has dropped 10% since the previous poll.

With the ballots in the mail this week and voting starting, it sure looks like a November contest between Koster and Burner or Koster and DelBene.

But we should have some more evidence soon…at Drinking Liberally this Tuesday, Goldy mentioned two other (non-candidate) polls that were in the field.

What does this poll say about the general election? The above table shows that Hobbs has a very slight edge over the sum of votes for Democratic voters. Furthermore, Larry Ishmael, the independent, is a past Republican challenger to Rep. Jay Inslee in the first, so we can probably “re-purpose” his 2% to the Koster column. (This isn’t quite true…the the crosstabs show Ishmael has about twice as many progressive supporters as conservative supporters!) These numbers make the new 1st CD a split district with a slight Republican lean.

On the other hand, the self-reported partisan make-up in the sample favors Democrats by 43% to 39%:

• Democrat 27%
• Leans D 16%
• Republican 26%
• Leans R 13%
• Independent 13%
• Other/DK/NA/Refused 5%

The evidence in the crosstabs looks somewhat favorable for a future Democratic Representative in the 1st CD. Of that 26% who didn’t know or didn’t answer who they support, the numbers split almost identically between conservative and progressive (about 6.6% of the total sample for each group). Moderates who didn’t offer a preference make up just under 8% of the total sample, whereas moderates who did have a preference, prefer a Democrat to a Republican 3 to 1.

So…until we have more evidence, this general election looks like a tight race with a slight edge for the Democratic candidate.

– The Stranger’s primary endorsements.

– According to a Colorlines report, there are at least 5,100 kids in the U.S. foster care system right now due to their parents being detained or deported. In the meantime, Colorlines also points to legislation to keep an eye out for, the “Help Separated Families Act of 2012” introduced by Lucille Roybal-Allard (CA-34) earlier this month, which would help avoid tragedies like the Romero family’s.

– The Joe Paterno statue has to go.

– McKenna’s Aide resigns over those godawful tweets.

– Only 53% of people think Romney’s policies favor the wealthy?

– It’s over a year later and having my abortion was the best thing I did.

– Superhero Pub Run

– We say opportunity

– Tomorrow is a good day to volunteer at parks in Seattle.

With Obama continuing to press Romney to release his tax returns, the speculation about what’s in them is running rampant. Maybe it’s something that’s basically reasonable if you’re a business person but tough to explain when we hold you to a higher standard trying to become leader of the free world. Maybe it’s more tax shelters. Maybe there’s evidence of fraud, or something else horrible.

Obviously, my speculation is as much as anyone else’s just speculation. But I think it probably leans to the worse side of the equation. In fact, think of the worst thing you can that might be in those taxes he refuses to release. Mitt Romney would rather you have that in your mind than the knowable, actual truth. Seems like if everything was fine, or if it was just a bit tough to explain, he’d rather have you know the truth.

There were some “legs” on the story of McKenna’s young staffer who made some unfortunate Tweets.

That’s the “big story” in the region’s media this week, but I think the media has missed the real story.

Kathlyn Ehl, who recently graduated from the UW, was hired by the McKenna campaign. But while she was a student, she created these cringe-worthy tweets:

Kathlyn Ehl @KathlynEhl
shut up and speak english #asians

and

Kathlyn Ehl @KathlynEhl
If it takes you an entire green light to walk in front of my car, GET A WHEELCHAIR #toooldtowalk

The tweets were brought to light on Slog.

Given how the press initially ignored stories like a County Executive candidate who punched his mother, and a Lands Commissioner engaging in sexual harassment, I figured the press would completely ignore this story…at least for a few days. In the mean time, the McKenna campaign would “disappear” the offending tweets and, perhaps, the staffer, without comment.

But the media has been over it. KUOW put it in their top-o-the-hour newscasts. Other media sources carried the KOMO story or the AP release. Even the Seattle Times had a story up by Monday evening.

Monday afternoon, the McKenna campaign did its own press release:

The tweets sent by a member of my campaign staff, Kathlyn Ehl, which were reported today were offensive and inappropriate. I am glad to see that she has apologized for her actions,” the statement reads. “The fact that she made the comments before joining my campaign does not make them any less hurtful to Asian Americans and the elderly. They were insensitive and wrong regardless of their context. She has done the right thing by apologizing. I am hopeful that she has learned a humbling lesson that will give her greater perspective about having charity in her heart when considering the challenges faced by others.

And by this morning, the offending policy assistant was gone, as was revealed by another McKenna campaign press release.

So, good on you, media, for even noticing. I’m not sure what the lesson is from that except, perhaps, that Anthony Weiner might still be in Congress if he had had the foresight to beat the shit out of someone instead of tweeting a photo of his bulging briefs.

But here’s what I think is the part of this story that should outrage the fuck out of the media (emphasis added):

Oddly, even though McKenna’s comments respond directly to a story we broke, his campaign did not send the statement to The Stranger. Instead, we obtained them from another source.

…and this…

I’ve posted [the McKenna campaign’s] statement—which, of course, the McKenna campaign didn’t send to The Stranger, even though we broke this story….

REALLY, McKenna??? Fucking REALLY?!? You want to be Governor of our state, and you persist in having a media “enemies list?”

This certainly paints him a small, petty man who lacks the temperament to be Governor.

McKenna believes he can pick who is and isn’t media and who is and isn’t a reporter.

What I don’t understand is why the area’s media allow McKenna to get away unscathed with this kind of bullshit.

My questions in bold; Sarajane Siegfriedt’s as is.

1) The state’s paramount duty is education. Do you feel the state is living up to that duty? If not, what needs to happen to live up to it?

Obviously, the state is not living up to its paramount duty. The judge in the McCleary case made this crystal clear, as did another judge in a similar case in the 70s. “Paramount duty” is most often interpreted as 50% of the state budget. We are currently devoting only about 42% of the $32 billion budget to Basic Education. (Basic Education was expanded by the legislature in the 2011 session.) We are $4 billion short. The “down payment” of $1 billion for K-12 Basic Education is due in the 2013-2015 biennial budget. We have to make up another $3 billion by 2018. As the Governor said and as both candidates for Governor failed to grasp, we have to raise taxes to pay for this.

2) Washington State voters recently rejected an income tax. Most of the revenue that the legislature might be able to pass is quite regressive. Will you push for revenue, and if so, how will you make sure the burdens don’t fall on the poorest Washingtonians?

I am not the only candidate or legislator who will refuse to vote to raise the sales tax. For a decade, I have long fought for social and economic justice as part of the Poverty Action Network. Three years ago, I joined with Fuse, the WA Budget & Policy Center and many others as the Our Economic Future Coalition to propose progressive plans to increase revenue. I support a capital gains tax, which falls on the top 3% and exempts sale of a primary residence. It’s time to revisit the Motor Vehicle Excise Tax. It’s been 10 years since Eyman’s initiative eliminated it, economic times have changed, huge budget cuts have been made and transit and ferries have suffered without the tax. The MVET is inherently a progressive tax. We also need a per-barrel tax on oil. The 60% tuition increases at our colleges and universities since 2009 constitute one of the worst taxes on the poor (especially community college and voc/tech) and they need to be reversed. This is a wealthy state, but our tax system doesn’t reflect that fact. Wealthy individuals and corporations need to pay their fair share.

3) There is a good chance that the State Senate and/or the Governor’s Mansion will be controlled by Republicans after the next election, and certainly most legislators will be more conservative than people who would be elected in a Seattle district. Given that how will you get your agenda passed?

I disagree with your premise. I believe we will be able to pass more progressive taxes for several reasons. One reason is that the challenge to Eyman’s I-1053 was ruled unconstitutional. I believe the Supreme Court will sustain this ruling before the beginning of the 2013 session. I believe the Democrats will retain a working majority in both houses, based in part on Obama’s popularity and the presence of the marijuana and equal marriage initiatives on the ballot. Second, education is widely supported by both parties and we have the McCleary ruling, which makes raising taxes imperative under any governor. Third, we have a bipartisan legislative task force that must come up with a plan to raise $1 billion for Basic Ed before the session starts—or else. Fourth, we have the House Democratic Caucus coming up with their own progressive plan to raise revenue. Fifth, we are far more likely now than in prior years to reform the system of tax exemptions, because the Grover Norquist pledge was broken by the Republicans last session when they sponsored and voted to repeal the Wall Street Bank tax exemption. There are 570 tax exemptions that lack a statement of legislative intent. This will change, and measurable outcomes for tax exemptions will be demanded.

4) You’re running in a race with many Democrats who share similar positions. What separates you from the rest of the field?

I’m the only candidate endorsed by the 46th District Democrats, the King County Democrats, and Rep. Phyllis Kenney, whom I hope to succeed. I have a record of fighting for social and economic justice on state issues. I have been focused on Olympia since I lobbied there for alcohol and drug treatment fulltime in the 2002 session. Afterward, I joined several boards, including Solid Ground, one of the largest social service agencies in King County. We recently produced 50 units of low-income family housing at Sand Point, with 50 more on the way. I am the only candidate who has been involved with the Democratic Party. Since 2004, my involvement has been with issues, writing platforms and more recently as Legislative Action Chair of the King County Democrats—their volunteer lobbyist, if you will. The job includes working with labor and all the major progressive coalitions and with legislators to form a consolidated legislative agenda. I track bills, send out legislative alerts and organize a lobby day. More than anything else, this position has given me the breadth of experience to make informed decisions on priority legislation in Olympia. Our number one priority has been progressive revenue reform, in order to pay for everything else, including education, the safety net, housing and the environment.

I have lived in the 46th District for the past 15 years, in Lake City. I’m involved in my district, with issues of homelessness and plans for transit-oriented pedestrian-friendly mixed-income communities at Lake City and at Northgate. I’m also the only candidate with an appointive public board position. I serve on the King County Board of Equalization, hearing appeals of property tax assessments. I’m the only candidate with an MBA and with a background in business. I’ve worked for AT&T and for Boeing (for seven years). I combine private sector and non-profit management experience with public service and extensive knowledge of state issues.

5) Seattle and King County give more to the state than they get back. Part of this is reasonable things like the cost of providing education and social services in rural and suburban areas, but part of it is a lack of respect for Seattle and King County with the legislature that treats us as an ATM. How will you make sure your district gets its fair share of revenue without harming education or social services throughout the state?

How can we argue that wealthy individuals and corporations should pay their fair share, meaning they pay more than they get back, when we don’t expect the wealthiest county in the state to do the same? There are several counties that cannot perform the basic functions of county government, as required by law, without substantial state assistance. Does that mean the other counties should have fewer requirements?

Fairness is in the eye of the beholder. I will fight for my district to get its fair share of transportation funds to maintain State Road 522, otherwise known as Lake City Way/Bothell Way, because it is a state highway carrying far more heavy truck traffic than before tolling began on the 520 bridge. The town of Kenmore, with 22,000 residents, is being forced to pay $68 million in road repairs on its “main street” that should be the state’s responsibility. The state is paying for the 520 bridge and most of the Hwy. 99 tunnel. When it comes to funding education and social services, two of the state’s top responsibilities, why is it inherently better or worse to fund a teacher or a foster children’s case manager in Seattle or in Yakima? In the end we must trust these state departments to allocate their funds on the basis of need, not silos or fiefdoms. (Trust, then audit?) Perhaps the founders of Kentucky and Massachusetts got it right when they named them “commonwealths,” not states. The name emphasizes an idea that has been neglected. We are all in this together.

Our summer and the political campaigns are all heating up. So please join us for a thirst-quenching evening of politics and conversation over a pint at the Seattle Chapter of Drinking Liberally.

We meet every Tuesday at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Starting time is 8:00pm. Some people show up earlier for Dinner.

Can’t make it to Seattle tonight? Check out one of the other DL meetings over the next week. The Tri-Cities chapter of Drinking liberally meets every Tuesday night. Drinking Liberally Tacoma meets on Thursday. Also on Thursday, the Spokane Chapter is back!

With 226 chapters of Living Liberally, including eleven in Washington state and four more in Oregon, chances are excellent there’s a chapter near you.

Scott Morgan writes in the Huffington Post about the Obama Administration’s continued war on medical marijuana:

I have no idea whether Obama himself is as enthusiastic about destroying medical marijuana as the folks at DOJ who’ve been doing the actual dirty work, but the answer to that question doesn’t matter. If Obama can blame Mitt Romney for what Bain Capital did while he was CEO, we can sure as hell blame Obama for what the Justice Department does when he’s the president.

He told us we could expect better than this. And yet the problem isn’t just that he failed to keep his word, or even that his attorney general rather blatantly lied to Congress about it, as awful as that is. The greatest disgrace in all of this is the perpetuation of a reprehensible policy that crushes the will of voters and the wisdom of legislatures, that stands between sick people and the medicine their doctors recommend, that hands control of cannabis back to cartels that kill people, and that creates a continuing war in our own communities when there could so easily be peace.

Obama once said that undermining medical marijuana laws was a poor use of resources, and he was right. But it’s not only a poor use of resources, it’s also just plain wrong. As a candidate, and as a leader, it’s time for our president to make things right.

Obama can start by replacing U.S. Attorney Melinda Haag, the most egregious of the DOJ officials undermining his previous promises to respect those who comply with state medical marijuana laws.

– I’m delighted Romney is now saying something in response to the question, but I’m having a tough time wrapping my head around this one. He’s going to keep his tax returns secret and hidden from public view because … Obama might find stuff?

– It may be the best thing for Seattle to get sued over excessive force by the police.

– McKenna’s aide’s anti-Asian and anti-elderly tweets.

– I keep forgetting to link to this set of basic political documents.

– Darryl and I have had some fun with #BainBookTitles.

– I love any podcast with Ken Tremendous.

This piece by Josh Feit about Patty Murray not wanting Super PAC’s in the 1st District race is basically fine. I don’t like Super PAC’s in general, but as long as they exist, I don’t mind them in primaries. But this struck me as particularly odd.

It’s grating enough when Democrats protest finance rules they object to by prescribing a holier than thou approach. Until you can actually reform finance rules, snooty protests just land you in the “L” column when you get outspent or outplayed.

I’m not sure how much it’s snooty to simply ask people to play nice. I like the rough and tumble of a primary, but plenty of people don’t. Still, the larger point is: Democrats, including Patty Murray, passed campaign finance reform. It was difficult and it took a lot of political capital. Then the Supreme Court invalidated it. Now it’ll take a Constitutional amendment or a different Supreme Court to fix things. Is Josh really saying until there’s a Constitutional amendment, Democrats can’t complain about the way things are. Not until they’ve fixed them? What the fuck is that?

– Team Mitt has a bit of a problem.

– It’s the rare feminist you will hear yelling, “Yeah, KILL HIM!” at a pee-wee football game.

– If the reason is to offer a balance of “both sides” then if nothing else, Mr Nethercutt provides a sterling example of how unbalanced one “side” is–even more so if he’s the best commentator the Inlander can get.

– You’ll be shocked to learn that Ron Paul people have some rather terrible ideas.

– The best thing to come out of the Romney I’m a CEO and not a CEO at the same time is John Cole’s pieces about Glenn Kessler.

– Obama and Kids.

– And kids on bikes

Some hours after I posted the Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! there were interesting new developments in the 2012 Presidential race that can be appreciated best visually.

It began with this advertisement from the Obama campaign that had everyone all a-twitter:

David Kurtz at TPM, in particular, is awestruck by the ad:”One for the History Books” he titles a post, and at one point he comparing it to FDR LBJ’s Daisy ad (this one).

Locally, The Stranger‘s Paul Constant expressed some enthusiasm for the ad (his emphasis, not mine):

Holy fucking shit. This is the most brutal attack ad I’ve seen in a long, long time. It minces the hell out of Romney’s offshore fortunes and his record as a jobs exporter (in the private and public sectors). And it makes fun of Romney’s singing voice, turning his version of “America, the Beautiful” into a symbol of his warped view of patriotism

The Romney campaign hit back with an ad that can only be described as pathetic:

The thesis is that by hitting Mitt Romeny hard on the Bain thing, it somehow negates Obama’s “Hope and Change” message of the last campaign. The writers obviously try to confuse Obama, the President, and Obama, the candidate.

For over three years, Republicans have been warning about how President Obama was “changing America into something unrecognizable.” Now, the Romney camp is “warning” America that Obama is just like other candidates.

It is conceivable that this ad actually helps Obama, by defusing the “changing America into something unrecognizable” argument for folks who don’t recognize that campaigns are not the same thing as policy.

The weekend has brought out a plethora of politicos making the rounds on the talk shows, including bulldogs like Mayor Rahm Emanuel and Karl Rove—who has the naked audacity to “warn” Obama about negative campaigning. That’s hilarious!

But of all the interviews, the ones with Romney campaign senior adviser Ed Gillespie are the most interesting.

In an interview on CNN’s State of the Union, Gillespie stated (my emphasis):

“He is going to release them [2 years of tax returns], Candy, we’ve made that clear, and that’s the standard that Senator McCain, Republican nominee in the last election said was the relevant standard. It’s the standard that Senator John Kerry as the Democratic nominee said was the standard.”

First…he really ought to rethink citing the losers of the past two elections as the model. Just sayin’.

Another problem is that John Kerry did not say that was the standard. Gillespie was off by an order of magnitude. Kerry released 20 years of tax returns. So, about that “standard”….

And on NBC’s Meet the Press we get this gem when David Gregory asked about Mitt benefiting financially from Bain even while on leave:

He actually retired retroactively…

Watch the 00:01:57 clip:

The Twitterosphere has gone bananas with the hash tag #retroactively.

I’ll close by pointing out two things.

First, when the Romney campaign has to “explain” the subtly of Romney’s position during the “bad” Bain years by using a five syllable adverb, they’re not just losing the campaign battle, they’re fucking losing their base!

Secondly, I’ll point out again what a precarious position Romney is now in. We know he was drawing a six-figure salary for, apparently, being on leave; for being completely detached from decisions at Bain. But the media smells blood in that—they will relentlessly attempt to unearth evidence that Romney did make some big decisions. And they’ll probably find something.

But even if they don’t, Romney still has the (relatively unexamined) implications found in Gregory’s question: As the owner of and sole shareholder in Bain and other spin-off companies, Romney was at a minimum receiving salary and investment profit from outsourcing, layoffs, liquidations, the offshore tax havens and, apparently, disposal of fetuses.

That he solely owned Bain through 2001 is undisputed fact. It just makes him look like a weasel to absolve himself of all responsibility, while earning millions, because he was on leave. Or retired.^&

^&retroactively.

Last week’s contest was won by milwhcky for his second in a row. It was the Octopus Car Wash in Albuquerque, where scenes from Breaking Bad were filmed.

This week’s is a location somewhere in Washington state, good luck!

Hosea 3:1-3
Once again the Lord spoke to me. And this time he said, “Hosea, fall in love with an unfaithful woman who has a lover. Do this to show that I love the people of Israel, even though they worship idols and enjoy the offering cakes made with fruit.”

So I paid fifteen pieces of silver and about ten bushels of grain for such a woman. Then I said, “Now you are mine! You will have to remain faithful to me, though it will be a long time before we sleep together.”

Discuss.