Archives for November 2010

I just got an email back from King County Elections regarding some discrepancies in reports on ballots received. The update: 114,000 new ballots arrived in the mail this morning, for a running total of about 675,000 ballots received thus far. And since King County reported results last night on 373,941 ballots, that leaves approximately 300,000 remaining on hand.

I emphasize the word “approximately” because there is some discrepancy between the numbers online, the numbers I was given yesterday, and the numbers I’m being given today, and because the ballots received number is always just an estimate. These numbers are also approximate because they represent the total number of ballots received, not the total that will ultimately be found valid; in 2009, our first all vote-by-mail general election, about two percent of received ballots were found invalid.

That said, King County is still projecting total ballot returns of about 720,000. They expect to report results on an additional 45,000 ballots by 4:30 PM this afternoon, with a significantly larger drop scheduled for Thursday.

UPDATE:
King County Elections tells me that the official ballot totals do not yet include any of those collected yesterday from drop boxes. So that’s should add tens of thousands more to the total.

Just before the first polls started closing out East yesterday, I made my predictions:

Patty Murray beats Dino Rossi by five-plus points, Dems lose WA-03, but incumbents hold on in all the other WA congressional districts. Meanwhile Dems hold control of both houses of the Washington state legislature, though R’s make a game of it with the state Senate. Initiatives 1053 and 1107 win, all others lose, but 1100 staggers around in a drunken daze for a week before we know the final outcome.

Nationally, Dems hold Senate with 52 or 53 seats, but lose control of the House, giving up about 50.

So how’d I do? Not bad.

Once all the ballots are in, Patty Murray will go on to beat Dino Rossi by almost three points, not the five-plus I predicted, but that’s what I get for being too specific. It also looks like I nailed the US Senate, the state legislature and the ballot measures. My biggest miss looks like the US House, where Rep. Rick Larsen seems likely to lose, if barely, in WA-02, and the R’s will pick up a handful more seats nationally than I expected.

Otherwise, election night unfolded pretty much as I expected.

Yesterday’s election was not the worst political disaster to befall the Democratic Party and the American people in recent decades. No, the worst political disaster to befall our nation, and the one whose consequences from which we might never recover, occurred December 12, 2000, when the Supreme Court of the United States usurped the right of the state of Florida to conduct its own elections, and appointed George W. Bush as President.

Two failed wars, a collapsed economy and a host of far-right, proto-fascist, corporatist judicial appointments later, our nation is on its way to becoming an authoritarian plutocracy. And if there’s one thing the recent violent outbursts of teahadists should teach us, it’s that if we truly love the Constitution and what it stands for, then sometimes, politics just isn’t enough.

Our Founding Fathers put the Second Amendment in there for a reason, and that was to enable the People to protect themselves against tyranny. In fact, it was Thomas Jefferson who said that it’s good for a country to have a revolution every twenty years. I hope that’s not where we’re going, but, you know, if the Republicans take our nation the way they promise to take it, my fellow patriots on the left are going to start looking toward those Second Amendment remedies and ask ourselves, what can we do to turn this country around? And I’ll tell you the first thing we need to do is take some Supreme Court justices out.

The right is arming. What are they arming for if it isn’t that they are so distrustful of us? They’re afraid that we’ll fight for our liberty in Second Amendment kind of ways, and so we must be prepared to do exactly that. It is too soon to give up completely on politics, but given what is at stake, if we don’t win at the ballot box, what will be the next step?

I, for one, know my rights, and I will never lay down and give my country freely to the corporatist plutocrats and the army of teahadist brownshirts in their employ. At least… not without a fight.

UPDATE

I suppose it’s possible that I-1100 could ultimately pass once the final ballots are counted, though at this point, it doesn’t look likely. While there’re still a ton more ballots left to count in the counties where it’s passing, it’s only barely passing in those counties… which brings me to one of my most self-amusing observations of the evening: apparently, I’m more in touch with the sensibilities of voters in the red parts of the state than initiative author Stefan Sharkansky.

Huh. I guess all those years Stefan spent in the Bay Area must have warped his values.

But then, really, how can you expect a Pelosi-Republican like Stefan to understand the real Americans who live outside his posh, Green Lake neighborhood?

You heard it here first.

UPDATE:
So, let me explain. Patty Murray is winning King County with about 62% of the vote, yet still represents a disproportionate number of the outstanding ballots to be counted. So even though she’ll go to bed tonight leading by only about 15,000 votes, her margin will surely grow as the ballots are counted over the coming days. Yeah, the media will try to spin drama out of this, but there really isn’t any. Patty wins.

UPDATE, UPDATE:
Contrary to the numbers on the SOS website, King County Elections tells me that they have received about 675,000 ballots so far (114,000 arrived Wednesday morning). Which means that there are currently about 300,000 uncounted ballots on hand, with maybe as many as another 50,000 more yet to arrive. More here.

Markos hasn’t told me what to think yet, but NBC tells me that Republicans have taken control of the House. Anyway, I’ll use this post for blogging my observations until I feel like doing something else.

6:11 PM
Here’s a question: who’s crazier, KY Senator Elect Rand Paul, or outgoing KY Sen. Jim Bunning? I’d say it’s a toss up.

6:22 PM
Carl and I disagree, on what really ails Democrats. I say that the key to winning is lying, and he says that we just need to do a better job of selling that we’re the party of truth. But my analysis is pithier, so I win.

6:31 PM
Palin-Rubio, 2012!

6:50 PM
More evidence of voter high turnout (and/or low vote handling capacity) in King County, with two-hour lines at the accessible voting centers, and over-stuffed ballot drop boxes. We’ll see.

7:15 PM
I wish I actually did drink liberally. That would make tonight more fun. Or at least, less not-fun.

7:22 PM

Via Slog, that’s a three-hour wait to vote at Union Station in Seattle. King County Elections has said that everybody who is in line to vote at 8 PM will be allowed to vote, so there’s still time to run on over to the accessible voting centers in Bellevue, Tukwila and Seattle. Or, if you’re somewhere else in state, particularly red country, well, fuck you and figure it out for yourself.

7:42 PM
Fuck Wisconsin. Really. Fuck ’em.

7:51 PM
So, if you’ve got nothing better to do, why not head out to Union Station with coffee and donuts or something, and try to encourage folks there to stay in line and vote.

8:05 PM
Money can’t buy you love. And apparently, it can’t buy you the California governor’s mansion either.

Election day is here! So vote. And then join us for an evening of election returns under the influence. We meet at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. beginning at about 8:00 pm. Some of us will be there much earlier to watch election returns over dinner.

The Move On folks will be joining us tonight. No doubt their RepubliCorp friends will tag along and cheer for the best candidates money can buy.

My Girl’s a Republican from jeff on Vimeo.

Not in Seattle? There is a good chance you live near one of the 250 other chapters of Drinking Liberally.

Feisty and I had a nice walk. Ran into Knute Berger at Seward Park. We both think Patty Murray will win.

Speaking of which, predictions. Nothing scientific here, and I don’t have access to any inside information, just the same polling data everybody else has plus my gut reaction that there’s just something wrong with it.

Patty Murray beats Dino Rossi by five-plus points, Dems lose WA-03, but incumbents hold on in all the other WA congressional districts. Meanwhile Dems hold control of both houses of the Washington state legislature, though R’s make a game of it with the state Senate. Initiatives 1053 and 1107 win, all others lose, but 1100 staggers around in a drunken daze for a week before we know the final outcome.

Nationally, Dems hold Senate with 52 or 53 seats, but lose control of the House, giving up about 50.

And no, I don’t see a mandate in any of this, except that folks really don’t like the economy.

Looking for place to drop-off your ballot? Or looking for an accessible voting center?

Here is a map for King County.

Start here to find ’em in the rest of the state.

Just got back from casting my ballot, and that was the view from behind the voting machine at King County Elections’ accessible voting center in Tukwila, WA. There were about a dozen people waiting to use the machines at about 11 AM, with another dozen filling out paper ballots. And remember, this is in a county that conducts elections entirely by mail. (Well, obviously, almost entirely.)

Elections workers told me that I came at good time, as things had been much busier earlier in the morning, and they expected crowds to back up again during the lunch hours. Meanwhile, mail-in ballots continue to arrive at a near-record mid-term pace.

Another 170,000 ballots arrived this morning, bringing King County’s running total up to 580,000, or roughly 54% of registered voters, with another large batch of ballots expected to arrive this afternoon. Typically, Tuesday and Wednesday are the days with the largest number of received ballots.

This leaves county elections sticking to their projected 68% turnout rate, or roughly 720,000 returned ballots, up from a 65% turnout rate and 635,753 ballots cast in 2006, the previous midterm election.

Of course, that’s just a projection, but in an year when Republicans are supposed to benefit from a huge enthusiasm gap, it is interesting to note that dark blue King County’s 68% projected turnout is actually a couple of ticks higher than the 66% rate Secretary of State Sam Reed is projecting for Washington state as a whole. Furthermore, King County elections officials tell me that they’re actually projecting 69% turnout for Seattle proper, with the less Democratic rest of the county coming in at 67%.

Huh.

Again, these are just projections. But they sure do seem at odds with the national narrative.

So here’s my schedule for Election Day, 2010.

After I finish writing this post, I plan to head on over to King County Elections’ Tukwila headquarters, check out the mood and the turnout, and then cast my vote in person, just like I always do. (Call me a hopeless romantic.) Then I plan to head home, take my dog on a long, leisurely walk, eat a little lunch, maybe take a nap, have a hot cup of tea and an even hotter shower, then head out to the Montlake Ale House for beer, election returns, and even more beer, depending on how bad (or badder) the results turn out to be. And if I’m not too depressed, I might head over to the Westin for Patty Murray’s victory party.

Somewhere in the midst of all that, I suppose I’ll do a little writing, including some pre-election predictions, return-watching live-blogging, and post election analysis. So stay tuned.

I’m almost feeling nostalgic at the news, what with the John Carlson Show being my first experience in a radio studio, but as of Monday, conservative talk is no more at KVI.

Yeah, I know, good riddance and all that. But it’s hard to think of the continuing loss of live, local programming as a good thing.

Another poll has been released today in the race between Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and real estate tycoon-turned-perennial-candidate Dino Rossi (R). The FOX News poll taken on 30 October on 1,000 likely Washington voters (for a 3% MOE) has Patty Murray leading Rossi 49% to 47%.

That’s very interesting, because earlier today, I reported on a Public Policy Polling poll that had Rossi in the lead by +2%. Both were robopolls.

My usual Monte Carlo analysis of this poll has Murray wining 671,871 times, whereas Rossi wins 319,994 times. In other words, this poll alone gives Murray a 67.7% probability of winning to Rossi’s 32.3% chance.

Combining the last seven polls—all taken over the past two weeks—gives a total of 6,371 “votes” to work with. Of these, Murray received 3,073 (48.2%) of “votes” and Rossi received 3,052 (47.9%). The Monte Carlo analysis has Murray winning 568,596 simulated elections to Rossi’s 427,966 wins. That is, the polls support a Murray victory by 57.1% and a Rossi victory by 42.9%.

The result is close! Neither analysis presented here can be considered outside the margin of error. Here is, what I believe is, the final graph for this race: the last couple of months of polling results:

Make of it what you will. The polls say it is a tie or a very small Murray victory. So what do I think will really happen tomorrow? First, let me state that I obviously want Murray to win. Even so, in my professional life, I am a scientist, and evidence is exceedingly important to me, even if it goes against my desires or pet theories. So here goes….

As I outlined at the end of this post there is a discrepancy between live interview polls and robopolls in the Washington Senate race that has also been seen nationally. I offered an explanation (i.e. a theory) as to why the discrepancy exists. It all leads me to believe that robopolls are systematically underestimating Murray’s performance in this race. If the theory is correct, I expect Murray to come away with about a +5% advantage over Rossi after all the votes are counted. But I concede that tomorrow night, reality will confront theory.

Reality always wins.

If only tomorrow’s election goes as well for the team from blue America as the World Series did.

In case you missed it, NPR put out a great report on how the for-profit prison industry assisted in getting Arizona’s anti-illegal immigration law on the books. It’s well worth reading the whole thing, as it shows how things that appear to be “grassroots” or being driven by the anger of everyday people are actually far more cynical efforts by special interests to boost their own bottom lines.

One aspect of this story, however, really jumped out at me:

It was last December at the Grand Hyatt in Washington, D.C. Inside, there was a meeting of a secretive group called the American Legislative Exchange Council. Insiders call it ALEC.

It’s a membership organization of state legislators and powerful corporations and associations, such as the tobacco company Reynolds American Inc., ExxonMobil and the National Rifle Association. Another member is the billion-dollar Corrections Corporation of America — the largest private prison company in the country.

…

“ALEC is the conservative, free-market orientated, limited-government group,” said Michael Hough, who was staff director of the meeting.

Hough works for ALEC, but he’s also running for state delegate in Maryland, and if elected says he plans to support a similar bill to Arizona’s law.

That’s right. Not only are there state legislators around the country who enact laws that directly benefit private for-profit companies who build and run prisons (whose profits come directly from taxpayers, of course), but these legislators have the nerve to refer to that as “limited-government.”

There are a lot of misused and misunderstood terms in our political discourse – from socialist to libertarian to fascist – but I’m not sure any of that has been anywhere near as cynical as how the term “limited-government” has been used. It’s now been attached to the belief that we need to round up illegal immigrants en masse and house them in prisons (the 4th Amendment be damned!). And this is not an anomaly. I see this sentiment repeatedly on right-wing Tea Party blogs. There’s a weird kind of cognitive dissonance going on where the presence of large numbers of undocumented migrant workers is indicative of “big government” and the effort to arrest them all and put them in prison is “limited government”. The Tea Party movement, which we’re repeatedly told believes in “limited-government”, only believes in it as a slogan, not as an actual coherent political philosophy.