Some classy folks at a Palin rally in Johnstown, PA:
100,000 people see Obama in St. Louis:
by Lee — ,
Some classy folks at a Palin rally in Johnstown, PA:
100,000 people see Obama in St. Louis:
by Lee — ,
Last week’s contest was won by Erasmus, who first guessed the correct location of Copenhagen, and wes.in.wa, who found the link. Here’s this week’s contest. Good luck!
by Lee — ,
Nir Rosen has an amazing account in Rolling Stone of his journey into Taliban-controlled parts of Afghanistan. Rosen discovers some expected things, for instance, that it’s still a dangerous region where foreigners are not welcome and coalition forces only engage from the air. But he also finds some unexpected things, like that the ranks of the Taliban are not so much the religious fundamentalists that they once were. Their movement is once again driven primarily by nationalism, as was the mujaheddin that drove out the Soviets in the 1980s.
Both John McCain and Barack Obama have said they’d send more troops to Afghanistan, but they should also listen to Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen:
But Mike Mullen added bluntly that military means alone were no longer sufficient. “We can’t kill our way to victory,” he declared. “Afghanistan doesn’t just need more boots on the ground.” The keys to success, he explained, were “Foreign investment. Alternative crops [to replace poppy cultivation]. Sound governance. The rule of law… No armed force anywhere — no matter how good — can deliver these keys alone.”
This is why I’ve cringed when Afghanistan has come up at the debates. Obama hasn’t even dared to challenge John McCain on whether or not the surge in Iraq worked. The reduction in violence in Iraq came from reaching out to former insurgents, improved tactics on the ground, building walls throughout Baghdad, and the fleeing of millions of Iraqi’s who’ve seen their prospects for a better life dwindle. Having greater numbers of troops was certainly helpful, but it was far from being the main thing that quieted down the insurgency. And Mullen is warning us not to take such a simple-minded approach to Afghanistan, even as John McCain keeps talking about bringing “the surge” there as well. That Obama appears to be the one candidate more willing to listen to Mullen’s advice is just one of the many reason why he’s getting my vote this year.
As part of the new push in Afghanistan, NATO recently authorized coalition forces to target the drug trade more directly by going after traffickers, labs, and drug lords, but leaving the farmers alone. Afghanistan still produces a majority of the world’s heroin which, despite being illegal, accounts for over 50% of the country GDP. And it’s because Taliban forces have provided protection for the industry that they’ve become such a well-funded and well-armed fighting force threatening to topple the coalition-led leadership across the county. Now the coalition will be trying to go after the people who’ve been paying the Taliban:
The alliance is not in the business of crop eradication, [Sec. of Defense Robert] Gates said, “but if we have the opportunity to go after drug lords and … labs — to interrupt this flow of cash to the Taliban — it seems like a legitimate security endeavor.”
Up until now, the only method being used to eliminate the opium crop was to have Afghan-led eradication teams tour the countryside and plow over opium fields. This approach has been totally ineffective. The teams were easily corrupted, often being used by a local drug lord (who would often happen to also be within the government) to eliminate a rival’s crops. Considering that individuals within the Bush Administration and the C.I.A. openly accept that even Hamid Karzai’s brother is involved in the trade, it’s easy to see why trying to enforce this law has been pointless.
Hard-core drug warriors in the Bush Administration and Congress continually pushed for aerial eradication (including Joe Biden, who helped push a bill to allow dangerous toxins to be dumped on Latin American fields). Our NATO allies and the Afghan Government both opposed us. What’s happening now is clearly a different approach, but it’s every bit as pointless. What we’re trying to do is similar to what we’ve been trying to do in Mexico for years. And when you’re dealing with an industry that accounts for half of a nation’s economy, destroying a few labs and killing some of the drug lords is not going to put a dent in the profiteering.
Instead, Taliban forces will shift from guarding the opium fields to guarding both the labs and the drug lords themselves. The more effective the coalition becomes at eliminating the elements of the trade, the more money will be spent for protection. While it seems like a legitimate security endeavor to Bob Gates, it’s actually one that will completely backfire. As with every anti-drug initiative we undertake in our foreign policy, we forget that the source of the money cannot be uprooted by eliminating the supply. As long as the demand for that supply exists, the best we can ever do is move it, as we once moved it in the 1970s from Turkey to Afghanistan (which, it should be noted, was done in part by allowing Turkey to legally grow it).
The foreign policy discussions in the Presidential debates have rarely deviated from the belief that we defeat our enemies across the globe through fear and intimidation. And in Iraq, our attempts in the early stages of the occupation to use the military alone to quell the insurgency just fanned the flames until we got smart and sat down with the leadership in Al-Anbar and other dangerous areas. Human beings tend to react one way or another to overly authoritarian approaches. Some submit, others rebel. How much of each group there ends up being tends to rely on whether the authority is trusted. In Iraq, we’ve gotten to a point where the vast majority of Iraqis are never going to see us as legitimate occupiers in their nation. It’s possible to keep a rebellious population under wraps if you have the resources, but it doesn’t provide security in the way that the proponents of that policy hope for. Israel has been lost in this psychological quagmire for decades when it comes to the West Bank and Gaza.
In Afghanistan, our unwillingness to dial back our air offensives, which even Hamid Karzai has questioned, is only part of why we’re losing ground there. It’s also because we believe that the drug trade is a form of defiance in much the same way that refusing to accept the coalition’s right to be there and rebuild the country is a form of defiance. It’s not.
The case of Bashir Noorzai is a good indication of how this misunderstanding will only make matters worse there. Noorzai was a wealthy drug lord who came to New York in the hopes of working with Americans to improve the situation on the ground in Afghanistan. It was all a ruse. He was arrested and charged with drug trafficking.
Now the strategy is to go after these guys all over Afghanistan. But people like Bashir Noorzai don’t break the law because they hate us or because they support the Taliban. They break the law because it allows them to be rich and powerful. Our decision to go after a heroin trade that we will never be able to stamp out aligns those whose motivation is profit and power with those whose motivation is to get the foreigners out of their country. This will just accelerate the defeat of Karzai’s fragile regime. We are hooked on a bad policy that just gets exponentially worse as we ignore the real roots of the drug trade and blame those trying to profit from it. While I’m eager to vote for Barack Obama in two weeks, I worry that this mess could eventually be his undoing.
by Jon DeVore — ,
Republican congress-critter calls for investigations of “anti-American” activities, Democratic opponent gets darn near close to a half million dollars in donations in 24 hours.
Yes, but what do the netroots actually do? It’s a mystery.
by Goldy — ,
Sen. Haugen is a communist? Really? That’s the best they can come up with?
Talk about being stuck in 1982.
by Darryl — ,
(Who needs Saturday morning cartoons, when some seventy other media clips from the past week in politics can be found at Hominid Views.)
by Jon DeVore — ,
The Columbian newspaper, which in 2004 endorsed George W. Bush, has endorsed Barack Obama.
But as we examined leadership qualities of both men, we saw Obama’s massive strides in uniting his own Democratic party, even reaching beyond his party to speak to all Americans. McCain, in stark contrast, continues to slog through a fractious Republican Party that often is his worst enemy.
It takes strong leadership skills to enlist record numbers of volunteers and to continually explore new heights in the polls, as Obama methodically demonstrates.
As for judgment, Obama chose a running mate who neither hurt him in the polls nor diverted the spotlight from the main man on the ticket. McCain’s choice has done both. McCain tries to masquerade this recklessness as the virtue of a maverick. Would he use that same recklessness in appointing Supreme Court justices and Cabinet members? Which candidate in recent weeks has shown a presidential demeanor? Which could best restore worldwide respect for the U.S.? Which man has tried to soothe — not stoke — rancor in the homestretch of this campaign? Clearly, that man is Obama.
Wow. This endorsement will make the righties howl, if they have any howling left in them.
It’s been a pretty big day for Obama in newspaper-endorsement land, for what it’s worth. From Editor and Publisher:
The Obama-Biden ticket maintains its strong lead in the race for newspaper endorsements, picking up 16 more papers in the past day, including the giant Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune on Friday afternoon (see separate story), and the Denver Post, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Salt Lake Tribune and Chicago Sun-Times tonight.
This brings his lead over McCain-Palin by this measure to over 3-1 so far, at 56-16, including most of the major papers that have decided so far. In contrast, John Kerry barely edged George W. Bush in endorsements in 2004, by about 220 to 205.
The readership of the 53 newspapers backing Obama now stands at well over 7 million. He gained two biggies yesterday in The Washington Post and San Francisco Chronicle, and today picked up the Modesto Bee in addition to the larger papers.
An interesting footnote: the Chicago Tribune has never endorsed a Democrat for president. Ever. Something about that Abraham Lincoln guy I think.
Is the political re-alignment of the United States very nearly complete? If you look at the maps Darryl has posted below, it would seem that way. The Republican’s Southern Strategy of 1968 has come to its final and logical conclusion, confining the GOP Party to the South and states that are rather southern in culture. (This isn’t my thinking, it’s put forth by none other than the mastermind of the Southern Strategy, Kevin Phillips, in his book “American Theocracy.”)
It would be nice if we get past our history some day, but the racist incidents and histrionics we are currently enduring in this campaign show we still have a ways to go. I know it’s going out on a limb to try to speak for most Americans, but you have to be pretty tone deaf not to pick up on the genuine longing for a leader who will do a good job and get this country working on the severe challenges we face.
by Darryl — ,
Obama | McCain |
100.0% probability of winning | 0.0% probability of winning |
Mean of 369 electoral votes | Mean of 169 electoral votes |
Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 368 to 170 electoral votes. Obama would have almost certainly won an election held yesterday. With the release of 14 new polls from 12 states today, Obama edges forward in his electoral vote total.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Obama still wins them all. Obama takes, on average, 369 of the 538 electoral votes. McCain takes 169. With little doubt, Obama would win an election held now.
Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.
Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.
by Lee — ,
Check out Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann on Hardball accusing Obama and other Democrats of potentially being anti-American:
This insane asylum escapee is in a tight re-election contest against Democrat El Tinklenberg, and you can help out him out here.
[UPDATE]: And there’s one other challenger in the Midwest who I’d love to see pull out a win. Michael Montagano is within 5 percentage points of Mark Souder (IN-3), who won 69% of the vote in 2004. Souder is one of the worst members of Congress when it comes to drug policy. Montagano’s ActBlue page is here.
by Goldy — ,
Apparently, the Seattle Times has endorsed Dino Rossi. I haven’t read it yet, but I’m guessing I don’t have to: “Budget deficit, blah, blah, blah… no taxes, blah, blah, blah… fuck Labor, blah, blah, blah… eat the children, blah, blah, blah…”
You know, typical Times ed board stuff.
by Jon DeVore — ,
I’d imagine we’re going to be seeing more stories like this all around the state:
Faced with a dire state budget forecast, Clark College has announced a hiring freeze and asked executive department heads to cut budgets about 3 percent.
That might not be all, for the 12,500-student Vancouver college.
Deeper budget cuts may follow as the state economy continues to slide, Clark President Bob Knight wrote in an e-mail to the college community on Wednesday night.
Our state’s revenue system makes this sort of thing pretty much inevitable. I remember writing stories about such stuff during the George H.W. Bush recession back in the early 1990’s for a community college newspaper.
Sure, it’s easier to play politics than to actually prioritize, but for once I would like to hear Republicans state how much education (and thus our state’s future potential economic growth) they wish to cut. Vague “waste fraud and abuse” accusations don’t count. Where efficiency can really be improved, that’s great, but it takes hard work in boring hearings, not campaign talking points.
by Goldy — ,
by Jon DeVore — ,
The United States Supreme Court has overturned an appellate court that ruled in favor of the Republican Party regarding voter registrations in Ohio.
In a brief unsigned opinion, the justices said they were not commenting on whether Ohio is complying with a provision of the Help America Vote Act of 2002 that lays out requirements for verifying voter eligibility.
Instead, they said they were granting Brunner’s request because it appears that the law does not allow private entities, like the Ohio GOP, to file suit to enforce the provision of the law at issue.
About 200,000 of 666,000 voters who have registered in Ohio since Jan. 1 have records that don’t match. Brunner has said the discrepancies most likely stem from innocent clerical errors rather than fraud but has set up a verification plan.
While this is heartening, it’s not the end of Republican monkey business. Josh Marshall, as usual, leads the way covering highly suspect Department of Justice actions, this time with the ridiculous FBI folderol regarding ACORN. If that’s not an attempt to screw with the outcome of the election, I don’t know what is. That lady from Alaska even mentioned it this morning on my tee-vee. Here’s a bit from TPM’s story this morning:
“I’m astounded that this issue is being trotted out again. Based on what I saw in 2004 and 2006, it’s a scare tactic.”
Who’s that speaking? And what’s he talking about?
That’s fired US Attorney David Iglesias talking about the news leaked today that the DOJ and FBI are opening a nationwide investigation into allegations that the community organization ACORN is somehow working to undermine the November election through fraud. For more from Iglesias and his fellow fired US Attorney Bud Cummins, don’t miss TPMMuckraker’s Zack Roth’s interview post from earlier this evening.
There really needs to be intense scrutiny of the FBI investigation of ACORN in the traditional media. If there’s anything there other than everyday mistakes and the occasional people ripping off ACORN, then we all want to know about it. Because if there’s not anything worth investigating then the FBI itself is now being used as an arm of the Republican Party. (I know, who would think the Bush Justice Department would do such a thing?)
As Iglesias notes in his interview with TPM, the leaking of the investigation itself is highly suspicious. It’s hard enough to win elections without having to win by margins larger than Republican suppression efforts.
by Josh Feit — ,
Yesterday, Commissioner of Public Lands, Doug Sutherland, wrote a letter to State Rep. Sharon Nelson (D-34, Vashon) saying he had not yet approved a controversial lease for mining company Glacier Norhtwest.
Nelson, an opponent of strip mining on Maury Island, sent a letter to Sutherland on Monday asking him to address what she had heard from concerned constituents: Mining company Glacier Northwest had reportedly told King County’s Dept. of Development and Environmental Services that Sutherland was going to issue a required aquatics lease to Glacier (right after the election) that would allow the company to proceed with its controversial mining expansion.
Republican Sutherland is up for reelection in a tight race against outspoken environmentalist, Peter Goldmark. Goldmark has made an issue out of Sutherland donors like Glacier Northwest who, Goldmark says, get political favors from Sutherland.
In his October 16 letter to Rep. Nelson, Sutherland repeated, in much stronger terms, the denial I reported here on Monday issued by Fran McNair, Sutherland’s Aquatic Lands Steward.
Sutherland writes: “As the proprietary manager of state owned aquatic lands, DNR [the Department of Natural Resources] is the decision making authority, not a lease applicant such as Glacier. Therefore any assurances that this prospective lessee may have directly or indirectly indicated concerning their final approval of a pending application should be considered purely speculative and without any merit.”
by Goldy — ,