Search Results for: 10,000

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 363 electoral votes	Mean of 175 electoral votes

It has just been one week since my previous analysis—just before the Debate. But, man, it feels like it has been a year! That analysis had former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by, on average, 377 to 161 electoral votes. Biden won all of the 10,000 simulated elections. We have new insight in the form of 66 new state head-to-head polls.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump’s 175 electoral votes, so Biden’s lead has shrunk by 14 votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.

What are the big changes? First, Trump’s chances in Alabama increase from 75% to 100% probability on account of an old mid-August poll being replaced by a current poll with a large sample size from Auburn University. Smaller gains come from Iowa (58% to 63% probability) and Kansas (92% to 99%). The two most important gains are in Ohio, where newer polling take Trump from a 5% to a 54% probability of winning—changing Ohio from Blue to Red on our map, and Texas, where the newer polls increase Trump’s changes from 63% to 91% chance of taking the state. Finally, in Virginia, a Biden+15% poll drops out leaving only a small Biden+5 poll, raising Trump’s chances from less than 1% to 16%.

Biden has made some gains, as well. In Georgia, five new polls coming in and three polls aging out have upped Biden’s chances of taking the state from 41% to 76%, switching the state from red to blue. A new Trump+5 poll in Mississippi replaces an older Trump +10 poll, dropping Trump’s chances from 97% to 87%. Likewise, in Montana, an old poll dropped out leaving behind one smallish poll, so that Trump’s chances drop from 98% to 91%. Clearly, for Mississippi and Montana, we badly need some new polls. We have the opposite situation in New Hampshire, where we went from one current poll to four current polls, all with Biden in the lead. Consequently, Trump’s chances drop from 33% to 0%. Another big change is in North Carolina, where six old polls age out and three new polls weigh in. Out of 19 current polls, Biden leads in 14 of them, Trump leads in three and there are two ties. These boost Biden’s chances from a 69% to 88%.

The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 05-Oct-2019 to 05-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):

Back to the analysis for an election held now, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.1% probability of winning
Mean of 354 electoral votes	Mean of 184 electoral votes

It has been mid-May since I published one of these analyses. back then, Biden led Trump in the electoral college with a mean of 348 to 190 votes.

Now, with over 40 new polls, Biden still leads. In the 10,000 simulated elections, Biden won all 10,000 times. Biden received (on average) 354 to Trump’s 184 electoral votes. If the election was today, we would expect Biden to win with a greater than 99.9% probability.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Biden	Trump
> 99.9% probability of winning	< 0.01% probability of winning
Mean of 348 electoral votes	Mean of 190 electoral votes

Biden is still leading in today’s analysis. Last week, the score was 359 to 179 electoral votes (on average). Today, after 10,000 simulated elections, Biden receives, on average 348 to Trump’s 190 electoral votes.

The difference largely arises from Ohio, where one poll has dropped out and one new poll has been released. Now the three current polls give Trump a 51.3% to 48.7% advantage over Biden, suggesting he would win the state now with an 82% probability. Here is the polling in Ohio to date:

That 4th Marist poll with Biden up +4 dropped out and a new Emerson University poll was released with Trump up +3. Biden won every poll taken in 2018 and 2019, but the candidates have led in two polls apiece in 2020.

Florida is another interesting case. The collection of 4 current polls gives Biden a 51.6% to 48.4% lead over Trump, suggesting Biden would win the state now with a 98.8% probability. The long-term polling shows somewhat mixed results, but Biden leads in the most recent 5 polls. So far, in Florida polling, Biden has led in 13, Trump in 6 and there is one tie.

Finally, let’s look at Wisconsin. You may recall that in 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by less than 23,000 votes. With only one current poll in hand, Biden leads Trump 57.2% to 42.8%, suggesting Biden would win a Wisconsin election now with a probability greater than 99%. The large margin is misleading in the larger contest of the total polling for the state:

There have been 31 polls testing a Biden–Trump election, all taken since March of 2019. Biden has led in 25 of the polls and Trump in six. But most of the leads are well within the margin of error. Biden has led in the last 6 consecutive polls. The net result is that Wisconsin still feels like a swing state with an edge for Biden.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]

Not The White House Correspondents’ Dinner: Deep fakes.

Late Show: A Message From The NRA

Trevor: Putin’s plot to take over the Arctic.

Today I Found Out: Why Doesn’t the U.S. Use the Metric System?.

Seth Meyers: Mostly political monologue.

Wendover: The economics that made boeing build the 737 Max.

Jim Jefferies: America can learn a lot from Australia’s gambling addiction.

Not The White House Correspondents’ Dinner: Balance v. truth

Minute Physics: How quantum computers break encryption.

The Dotard Трамп and His Fellow Liars, Purgers, and Thieves:

• Stephen: William Barr’s master class on hair splitting
• Bill MaherDemocracy—Endgame
• Chris Hayes: Stephen Moore is not so great at defending himself
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп suing to hide financial records
• Rachel Maddow: Robert Mueller expressed displeasure to Barr over handling of report
• James Corden: AG William Barr didn’t feel like his job
• Trevor with Jaboukie Young-White: Fixing the Dotard’s Twitter account.
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Kellyanne Conway breaks the law again
• Not The White House Correspondents’ Dinner: In memoriam to White House press briefings
• Stephen: William Barr pulls a no-show on Congress
• Jimmy Kimmel: Democrats mock AG Barr and Трамп hates ObamaCare
• Watch Sen. Mazie Hirono tear AG William Barr a new asshole
• Watch Sen. Kamala Harris tear AG William Barr a new asshole
• Rachel Maddow: Did Barr shut down Mueller for not making a call on Трамп’s crime?
• Stephen: Трамп still faces 16 known criminal probes
• Chris Hayes: The Dotard gets “spiritual” on national day of prayer
• Jimmy Fallon: Robert Mueller unhappy with William Barr’s report summary
• Rachel Maddow: Hillary Clinton—Mueller report shows that the Russians were successful
• Conan: Трамп has Never Taken A Small Bite In His Life
• Stephen: Colbert Barges in on William Barr’s testimony
• James Corden: Sen. Lindsey Graham dropped an F-bomb
• Jonathan Mann: Lindsay Graham says, “Трамп is a fucking idiot”.:

• Mark Fiore: A new oath for new times
• Stephen: Трамп calls himself “The youngest person”
• Jimmy Kimmel: Attorney General Barr’s Senate hearing
• Late Show: Rep. Steve Cohen gives Bill Barr props
• Trevor: Summary of Barr’s Senate testimony—“Nah”
• Chris Hayes: Republicans don’t defy The Dotard Трамп because they don’t want to
• Not The White House Correspondents’ Dinner: WHCD’s Collapse
• Stephen: Трамп’s fed pick is unqualified…and worse
• Rachel Maddow: Hillary Clinton, “I’m living rent free inside of Dotard Трамп’s brain”
• Lawrence O’Donnell: Chairman Adam Schiff—A.G. Barr deliberately misled the Congress
• Seth Meyers: Mueller complained about Barr’s letter to Congress
• Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп celebrates 10,000 lies in office
• Bill Maher: ASMR feat. Moby
• Stephen: The Dotard aims to charge refugees a fee to seek asylum
• Chris Hayes: Emails show DHS had no way to link separated families
• Not The White House Correspondents’ Dinner: The roast of The Dotard Трамп
• Seth Meyers: Barr refuses to testify after lying about Mueller
• Stephen: From “all in” to “all out” for pseudo-economist Stephen Moore

Not The White House Correspondents’ Dinner: Honorary journalism honor award honors.

Jim Jefferies: Silicon Valley’s gamification of everything.

Not The White House Correspondents’ Dinner: Horny for good journalism.

Trevor: Melinda Gates—“The Moment of Lift” and giving back on a global scale.

Lauren Mayer: NRA!

Knowing Better: The straight white man’s guide to feminism and social justice.

Desi Lydic: Why the wage gap is very real but shouldn’t be.

Not The White House Correspondents’ Dinner: Racism is racist with Brandon Victor Dixon:

Verge Science: On board Virgin Orbit’s flying launchpad.

Jim Jefferies: Not all snowflakes are unique.

Robert Reich: Five responses to climate change deniers

Twenty-Twenty Vision:

• Conan thinks Biden’s 24 pt lead will fade once he starts talking
• Jimmy Fallon: Beto O’Rourke answers fan questions on Facebook live
• Trevor: Pete Buttigieg on how much White male privilege decides which candidates matter
• Stephen: Joe Biden is making The Dotard nervous
• Seth Meyers: Calls into FAUX, calls Russia probe a “coup”
• Trevor: Why are Black women voters leaning toward Joe Biden?
• Bill Maher: Gov. Jay Inslee on combating climate change:

• Chris Hayes: Senator Kirsten Gillibrand calls for Attorney General William Barr to resign
• Stephen: Joe Biden’s new Obama-heavy ad
• Jimmy Fallon: Beto O’Rourke and Obama snapchat at the dentist
• Conan: Eric Swalwell’s approval rating is on the rise
• Trevor: Biden gets his Трамп nickname and stumbles through his first 2020 rally
• Seth Meyers: Can Governor John Hickenlooper break through?
• Jimmy Fallon: Four Beto O’Rourkes jam out on MySpace

Jimmy Dore chats with Sen. Mitt Romney.

Not The White House Correspondents’ Dinner: Sigourney Weaver saves journalism

Jordan Klepper: Meet the vets who use pro wrestling to combat PTSD.

Physics Girl: Singing this note is impossible.

Lewis Black: New York’s subways are about to get way worse.

Jim Jefferies: Taking care of your body is too much damn work.

Not The White House Correspondents’ Dinner: Conservative comedian Zam Larson (Taran Killam).

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

In a report released today (pdf), Public Disclosure Commission staff recommend referring the latest case against Tim Eyman to the Attorney General to pursue “appropriate legal action”:

If your phone rings today and you see “911-9111” in the caller ID, don’t worry that it’s a reverse 911 call warning you about a toxic gas leak or an armed fugitive or something in your neighborhood. In fact, don’t pick it up at all. It’s just those lying liars from the “No on Parks” campaign attempting to trick you into listening to their robocall.

I’ve heard from several people who’ve picked up this call, initially alarmed that this might be coming from 911. One annoyed recipient posted a screen shot from his phone to Reddit. Pretty damn shady.

Also shady are the robocall’s now familiar claims that a Metropolitan Park District can “sell our parks, build stadiums, [and] fund development.” Bullshit scare tactics. All the evil that opponents claim the mayor and city council could do with parks money, they can already do now. But they don’t. Because they answer to voters.

But there’s one more subtle bit of trickier in this robocall. Near the end, before identifying who has paid for the call, the speaker says: “Join us, the League of Women Voters, and the Seattle Times.” Of course, that first comma can be read one of two ways—it could be understood to separate “us” from “the League of Women Voters,” or it could be understood to describe “us” as “the League of Women Voters.” The speaker glides through it in an intentionally* ambiguous manner.

Clever. But also incredibly dishonest. Just like the opponents entire lying lie-filled “No” campaign.

So don’t let bullshit win. Vote “Yes” on Prop 1.

UPDATE: To be clear, 206-911-9111 is not a valid phone number, and it has been suggested to me that such caller ID spoofing may in fact be illegal, punishable by a fine of up to $10,000 per violation. I won’t speculate further, but I’ve been told that this call went out to 100,000 voters, so if the courts were to interpret it as fraud, it could potentially add up to a $1 billion fine!

 

---

* And yes, the starting point is to assume that every detail in a political campaign is intentional. If it wasn’t, then the campaign’s Republican political consultant, Sharon Gilpin (who likes to tout herself as a “savvy political operative”), wouldn’t be doing her job.

The Seattle Times editorial board (many of whom’s members don’t actually live in Seattle) weighs in on Proposition 1, which would create a Seattle Park District to manage and fund the city’s parks and recreation facilities.

SEATTLE loves its parks, and should have access to beautiful, safe and well-maintained urban green spaces.

Yes we do!

But in the name of good parks, the Seattle City Council is asking voters to give them a blank check, with increased power and weaker oversight.

We just don’t want to pay for them!

Citizens should reject Proposition 1, the Seattle Park District measure. This is not merely a replacement for the existing parks levy, which citizens have generously passed every six years. (Currently, property owners pay about 20 cents per thousand dollars of assessed value per year — or about $88 on a home valued at $440,000.)

It isn’t? Then I suppose in the very next sentence you are going to effectively describe exactly what Proposition 1 is:

As pro-parks community activist Gail Chiarello so effectively describes Proposition 1: “It’s pretending to be a Bambi, when it’s really a Godzilla.”

Um, what? I’m pretty sure that’s a non sequitur.

With the support of Mayor Ed Murray, Proposition 1 proposes a new, permanent taxing authority controlled by the City Council. Collections in 2016 would start at a total of 33 cents per $1,000 of a home’s assessed value (about $145 on a home worth $440,000), but the council could more than double that amount to 75 cents per $1,000, or $330 per year — without ever having to check with voters.

That’s not entirely true. Once the initial levy rate is set, the parks district would be subject to the same absurd one percent annual cap on regular levy revenue growth that Tim Eyman’s Initiative 747 imposes on all taxing districts. It is unclear to me whether the Parks District would be born with banked levy capacity up to the maximum revenue that could have been raised under the 75 cent per $1,000 statutory cap at the time of the initial levy, but even if so, that banked capacity would not grow with property valuations. In fact, since property values generally appreciate at a rate much faster than 1 percent a year, the actual maximum parks district levy rate per mille will inevitably decrease over time without a voter-approved lid lift.

Either the editors are too stupid to understand that, or they are engaging in dishonest scaremongering, pure and simple.

Under state law, this district cannot be dissolved by a public vote. Neither would citizens be able to file initiatives against decisions they disagree with.

Which is true. But citizens already can’t file initiatives against parks decisions now! The mayor proposes and the council amends and adopts parks appropriations through the annual budget process. City appropriations are not subject to initiative or referendum. How the parks department subsequently goes about spending its appropriations is a purely administrative function. Administrative actions are also not subject to initiative or referendum.

Again, either the editors don’t understand the law, or they’re hoping you don’t.

Though a 15-member citizens’ committee would ostensibly provide oversight, the real control is with the City Council. The parks district essentially creates a shadow city government, run by the same Seattle City Council with the same borders as the City of Seattle, but with vast new authority to levy up to about $89 million in new annual taxes on the same Seattle taxpayers.

How is it a “shadow city government” if it is composed entirely of the actual city government? Its meetings and records are open to the public. Its members are directly elected by voters. What is shadowy about that.

In fact, if you read the interlocal agreement that is part of the formation of the Parks District, nothing at all changes about the way decisions are actually made. The city will continue to own the parks. The mayor will continue to propose parks budgets. The council will continue to amend and approve parks budgets (before passing it on to itself in the guise of the Parks District for a pro forma vote). And the city’s parks department will continue to operate the parks on behalf of the district. Other than adding a citizens oversight committee, the only thing that substantively changes is the taxing authority. Nothing else.

There are not enough safeguards to stop the council from diverting general funds to other causes, such as sports arenas.

No safeguards except, you know, the ballot, the same safeguard that already stops the council from diverting funds to unpopular causes. These are elected officials. They answer to voters. That’s the safeguard: democracy.

(Also, “sports arenas?” Really? Now they’re just making shit up. In editorial board interviews and other forums, Parks District opponents have gone as far as to raise the specter that a Parks District could build an airstrip at Cal Anderson Park! That’s how stupid these sort of paranoid fantasies are.)

Proponents promise yearly department audits, but only after the measure becomes law.

Because you can’t audit something that doesn’t exist. Duh-uh.

Why wait? The city should conduct a robust, independent performance and financial audit before even attempting to ask voters to trust them and sign a blank check.

The office of the Washington State Auditor conducts annual financial and accountability audits of the city—including the Parks Department—the results of which are all available online. There are no outstanding negative findings regarding parks operations. As for a performance audit, it couldn’t hurt; but neither have the state’s performance audits proven to help all that much either.

Citizens deserve to know how funds have been used so far, and how the city might invest limited parks revenue more wisely.

See, this is really the heart of the disagreement here. The editors believe that parks revenue should be limited, whereas Mayor Murray and the council disagree. All their talk about accountability is bullshit. What they are really arguing for is more austerity.

• According to The Trust for Public Land, Seattle Parks and Recreation is ranked second in the nation for the number of employees per 10,000 residents among the nation’s 100 most populous cities. City spending on parks ranks fourth in the nation. Yet, it faces a daunting maintenance crisis that has left some buildings dilapidated, pools unusable, bathrooms dank and even allowed a broken pump at Green Lake to leak raw sewage.

Shorter Seattle Times: It’s all the fault of those greedy, lazy parks employees!

To be clear, the Parks Department has eliminated 142 positions since 2008, about 10 percent of its workforce. Further, Seattle Parks & Recreations is almost unique in the nation in that it encompasses community centers as well as parks, thus skewing our employee per resident and revenue per resident numbers upwards. Indeed, if you read the TPL report in its proper context (instead of cherry-picking data and deliberately presenting it out of context like the editors do), what you see is Seattle’s parks rankings slipping year over year compared to similar-size cities, do to our lack of investment.

So let’s be honest. One of the reasons the Seattle Times consistently opposes raising taxes (again, taxes many of its non-Seattle-resident editors will never pay) is because they view every funding crisis as an opportunity to punish unionized public employees. Not enough money to meet our paramount duty to amply fund public schools? Fire teachers, cut their pay, and break their unions! Sales tax revenue shortfall threatening 600,000 hours of Metro bus service? Fire bus drivers, cut their pay, and break their unions! Initiative 747’s ridiculous 1 percent cap on annual regular levy growth strangling the city’s ability to pay for parks and other public services? Fire workers, cut their pay, and break their unions!

• Despite campaign rhetoric calling on voters to invest in fixing parks, Proposition 1 would dedicate only about 58 percent, or $28 million, of revenue in the district’s first year toward chipping away at the city’s $270 million maintenance backlog. Eight percent, or $3 million, would pay for maintaining facilities. More than a quarter of the budget is slated for new programs and expansion.

That’s 58 percent toward addressing the maintenance backlog and 8 percent toward avoiding adding to it. Yes, a big chunk of the remainder goes to “expanding” programs… but only within the context of several years of program cuts. For example, we’re talking about restoring community center hours and routine park maintenance and service that had been cut during budgetary lean years. Over anything longer than a one-year time frame, that’s not an expansion.

As for new programs, the proposed budget would develop and maintain parks at 14 sites the city had previously acquired, but never had the funds to develop. Also a new program: performance monitoring! The editors oppose spending additional money on the exact sort of accountability they insist must be delivered before spending additional money! Imagine that.

Seattle needs to care for current assets before amassing more. It also ought to expand partnerships with nonprofits and private groups willing and ready to help sustain recreation programs.

Or, hell, why not just privatize?

Preserving parks is critical to quality of life and public health.

But paying for it is not.

The mayor and council members are understandably eager to create dedicated parks funding and free up room in limited levy capacity for other worthy programs, such as universal preschool. But they have failed to make a case for a Seattle Park District that gives elected officials so much additional, unfettered power to tax and spend.

Again, bullshit. The power isn’t unfettered and there’s zero loss of accountability. What the editors are really opposed to is “free[ing] up room in limited levy capacity for other worthy programs, such as universal preschool.” They want to drown city government in a bathtub.

By rejecting Proposition 1, voters send a strong message to city leadership: We love parks, but return with a levy or alternate measure that prioritizes park needs, holds officials more accountable and preserves citizen participation.

Actually, it would send the opposite and most obvious message: that we don’t love our parks. And they know that. But the anti-tax/anti-government/anti-Seattle editors just couldn’t give a shit.

Let’s be 100 percent clear: For all the over-the-top vilification, the proposed Seattle Municipal Parks District is little more than an accounting maneuver. For a hundred years, this latent taxing authority has been left untapped because a prosperous Seattle didn’t need it. But I-747’s ridiculous 1 percent cap (less than inflation let alone population-plus!) has left the city unable to grow revenues commensurate with its needs.

A parks district would provide a stable and adequate alternative revenue source while freeing up taxing capacity for other crucial services like universal pre-school. And it would leave the parks department just as accountable as it is now, if not more so.

What the Seattle Times is arguing for is what its editors always argue for: a slow and steady decline and erosion of the public sector. Tell them to go fuck themselves: Vote “yes.”

Oh hey, Clint Didier is still running for office. This time it’s for Congress from Eastern Washington. And his campaign is giving away guns (Tri-City Herald link). Because sure.

Supporters must submit their names, ZIP codes and email addresses at Didier’s website to get updates from his campaign.

The winners of the guns — two pistols and a military-style rifle — will be randomly chosen. The contest allows people to civilly show support for the Second Amendment at a time when it is being threatened, Didier told the Herald.

“All these shootings are occurring at gun-free zones by individuals on some type of drugs with mental issues,” Didier said. “The guns are not pulling the trigger, the people are pulling the trigger. These gun-free zones are enticing people to go to these areas to do these terrible deeds.”

[…]

The prizes are two Ruger 2300 LC9 pistols and a DB-15 S rifle, including a 30-round clip with ammunition, Didier’s website said. He will give away the guns when he reaches 10,000 “likes” on his Facebook page or followers on Twitter, or July 4, whichever comes sooner.

The winners will have to follow all laws — including being of legal age and going through a background check — to claim their prizes, Didier said.

I had originally read Joel Connelley’s piece that doesn’t include reference to background checks, but when I asked the campaign about it, their spokesperson Larry Stickney* directed me to the longer piece on the Herald.

When I asked how a background check would weed out people on drugs or “with mental issues” he didn’t respond. It seems like the maybe not the greatest plan to give a potential murder weapon to some random stranger because they were nice enough to give you their name, email address, and zip code, even if they are able to pass a background check.

[Read more…]

Remember how opponents warned that a $15 minimum wage would surely cost the city thousands of jobs, hurting the exact same low-wage workers the ordinance was intended to help? Well, in Seattle’s booming hospitality industry, not so much:

The former Red Lion Hotel in downtown Seattle sold Thursday for $130.7 million, or nearly $410,000 a room, the highest price ever paid in the metro area, according to hotel experts.

But the record price for the 319-room hotel, now known as Motif Seattle, could quickly be surpassed by the pending sale of the 120-room Hotel 1000: Two groups are buying it for $63 million or about $525,000 a room, according to a report this week in The Wall Street Journal, which didn’t identify its sources.

“It is the highest price paid (per key) ever for a hotel in Washington state,” said Chris Burdett, senior vice president of CBRE Hotels in Seattle, which was not involved in the transaction.

The record-price deals for downtown Seattle hotels are the latest good news for a surging hotel market that’s kicked off a wave of new construction. Downtown Seattle has roughly 12,000 hotel rooms; the construction of R.C. Hedreen’s mega-convention hotel and smaller hotels could add another 3,000 rooms to the inventory.

Wait. I thought the $15 minimum wage was supposed to destroy capitalism as we know it. And yet in the immediate wake of its passage, investors continue to sink hundreds of millions of dollars into an industry that is one of the city’s largest employers of low-wage workers. I’m so confused!

And it’s not just here in Seattle. Just weeks after SeaTac voters passed their $15 minimum wage, Cedarbrook Lodge, one of the initiative’s most vocal opponents, announced a $16 million 67-room expansion. It’s like the industry’s mouth is saying one thing while its money is saying something entirely else. Weird.

I can only conclude one of two things. Either paying hotel housekeepers and other low-wage workers $15 an hour won’t squeeze all the profits out of Seattle’s labor-intensive hotel industry, or all the smart capitalists investing hundreds of millions of dollars into our soon-to-be-living-wage hotel industry are in fact incredibly stupid.

With the Seattle City Council finally scheduled to vote on proposed taxi and TNC (Lyft, Sidecar, uberX) regulations today at 2 pm (really, this time), I thought it appropriate to post some comments from an actual taxi owner. Taxi owners have without a doubt been the most reviled stakeholders throughout this entire debate, cast by TNC boosters (and some for-hire drivers) as a cabal of greedy medallion-hoarders, sucking the lifeblood from immigrant drivers while assuring crappy service.

Responding to my coverage in The Stranger, one of these allegedly greedy drivers (who wishes to remain unnamed to protect his music career) emailed me with his personal story:

Just want to thank y’all for your coverage on the taxi v tnc issue. Honestly it’s where I’m getting most of my information.

Nowadays I’m temporarily making a living with music & have rented out my cab, watching in panic as my future job (can’t survive on music in the long term) and planned retirement crumble away to dust, and it’s even worse for the guy leasing my cab right now, who can’t make the payments or support his refugee family. Let’s just say it’s very personal for us.

Last time I was in Seattle I was shocked to see hipster oligarch David Mienert opining on the topic in some article, not sure if it was with y’all or the Weekly, but clearly there must be a shortage of expert opinions if someone is turning to him. If you ever need an inside perspective just holler, I’ve been in this business for a tedious eighteen years, drove for Broadway, Greytop, Orange & finally Yellow before buying my own taxi.

And if you think this cab owner’s story is an outlier, think again. “There is this myth out there that a few people own all the taxi cabs,” Green Cab general manager Chris Van Dyk tells me, “but the vast majority of taxi cabs are individually owned.” Van Dyk, a longtime industry insider, says that there is only one owner in the city who owns more than 50 cabs, and only about 25 who own more than five. At Yellow Cab—the largest taxi association in the city—Van Dyk estimates that there are about 370 owners of Yellow’s 559 cabs.

Of course, there are many more drivers than owners. The costs of owning and operating a cab are so high that they require 24/7 operation to provide a return on investment, so every owner leases out his cab for at least one 12-hour shift a day. In addition to purchasing a medallion (which went for as much as $140,000 just two years ago) and a $30,000 car, the musician/cab-owner above estimates his recurring costs to be:

• $600/month commercial taxi  insurance
• $550/quarter for Labor & Industries insurance ($225 per driver)
• $170/week to be a part of a taxi association
• $1000/year in licensing & inspection fees to the city, county and state

Plus, you know, gas, maintenance and depreciation. Van Dyk says that 24/7 operation puts about 100,000 miles a year on the typical taxi, meaning the vehicle is totally depreciated after just three years. That comes to $10,000 a year in recurring depreciation costs. And that doesn’t begin to count the steadily depreciating value of taxi medallions, which are reportedly now selling for half what hey did just a couple years ago, if you can find a buyer at all.

Lyft, Sidecar, and uberX currently bear none of these costs but for some indeterminate cost for insurance coverage. The drivers do bear the cost for gas, maintenance, and depreciation, though the part-timers may not fully appreciate the total tally.

“Imagine for a moment how much we could lower the taxi leases and lower the customer fares if we had less fixed costs,” our musician/cab-owner writes. “Alternately,  imagine how much  the fares would rise in UberX if these same business costs were applied to them?”

It is ironic that some of the same people arguing that a $15 minimum wage would crush struggling small businesses, have absolutely no empathy for the hundreds of small business people in the taxi industry—most of them current or former drivers, and many of them immigrants—who have sunk their life savings into purchasing a medallion and a cab, only to have their livelihoods ripped out from under them by the illegal operations of the TNCs.

It is that uneven playing field that the council is expected to at least partially address this afternoon.

Joel Connelly has a piece on coal interests giving to Republicans who then spend it on pro-coal candidates in Whatcom County.

– State Republicans, on May 1, received a $10,000 donation from Pacific International Terminals. Pacific doubled down with a $20,000 contribution on Sept. 17.

– The Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad, on June 25, made two donations totaling $10,000 to state Republicans.

– The state Republican Party, on May 1, gave $5,000 to the Whatcom County Republican Party. It followed with a second $5,000 donation on May 24, and a third $5,000 donation on July 19.

– The state party has given $500 apiece to four candidates — Kathy Kershner, Michelle Luke, Ben Elenbass and Bill Knutzen — who have been endorsed by the Whatcom County Republican Party. The county party strongly supports the proposed coal export terminal.

–The Whatcom County Republican Party, between July 29 and Aug. 1, made donations of $900 apiece to Kershner, Luke, Elenbass and Knutzen.

I’m not here to say that they can’t do that. If the law allows it, corporations are going to make political donations that maximize their profit. But it is scuzzy. And perhaps it shouldn’t be allowed. It should definitely be called out.

I’m generally a rights of defendants person. And more generally a you can have your day in court person. But even with those filters, this seems like a dumb lawsuit (Links to the TNT, so use your clicks accordingly).

Paula Henry’s husband was fatally shot by a family friend in Tacoma in 1995, and now 18 years later her husband’s killer is suing her and others from prison.

Larry Shandola alleges that Henry violated his privacy rights and intentionally inflicted emotional distress, in part by telling the state Department of Corrections that he shouldn’t be allowed to serve his sentence in his birth country of Canada.

…

Now Shandola is seeking $100,000 each from Paula Henry and other defendants, according to court records. He had Henry served with the lawsuit at her home, which prompted her to move because she was terrified that he knew where she lived, Ladenburg said.

Some of Henry’s friends and a victim’s advocate are also named in the suit and have had to pay thousands to defend themselves, Ladenburg said.

A motion to dismiss the lawsuit will be heard Friday, he said. Henry is requesting $10,000 in statutory damages, according to court documents.

I mean unless there’s something I’m missing here this is, on top of being cruel, just dumb.

The linked article says that while it’s too late to do something about this sort of thing in the legislature unless it’s attached to another bill. I don’t know how that would pass muster with the 2 items requirement, but if they can do that, great.

Polls are closing in the East, and we have ourselves a horse race!

The Montlake Alehouse has CNN on the TeeVee box, but I’ll sometimes switch to NPR when their election coverage starts.

(Note: Times in PST)

4:47: Via Twitter:

Larry Sabato ‏@LarrySabato
OHIO: Vast majority of pre-election polls & now election exit poll show Obama up 1-3%. Either all wrong or Obama wins.

4:50: A few minutes ago, Wolf Blitzer called South Carolina for Romney. And when he showed the vote totals, Obama was leading by a 4 to 1 margin. There were only 10,000s or so total votes. Blitzer had some ‘splaining to do!

4:57: Huh…Obama is still up by 57% in SC, with 40,000 or so counted.

5:02: CNN projects a bunch of states and it is Obama 64 EVs to Romney 40 EVs.

5:25: I just put on NPR and heard Matthew Continetti say that we are heading for a national vote/electoral vote split. E.J. Dionne expresses some skepticism….

5:31: I was wrong! Mitt Romney takes Tennessee!

5:43: It’s Romney 82, Obama 64 EV over at CNN. Prepare the capsules, my friends…..

6:02: Well…it would seem Romney did NOT have a good chance of taking Michigan. CNN calls it for Obama.

6:13: Geez…with Michigan out of the picture, Romney has a very tough road to 269!

6:25: Huh. Obama is way up in Colorado. How could that be? I thought Republicans were WAAAAAY ahead in the early voting?!?

6:42: Axelrod’s mustache breathes a sigh of relief! Pennsylvania is called for Barack Obama. Huh…what happened to that momentum the Romney camp had going in Ohio PA (you know, without actually winning a poll)?

6:46: Elizabeth Warren beats Brown in MA! Ted Kennedy can now quit rolling over and over in his grave and be peacefully dead.

6:49: Donnelly is called for Indiana! It’s good for America when Republicans express their true feelings about women’s reproductive health issues…and religion.

6:57: Oh dear, Mitt Romney loses another home state…New Hampshire.

7:00: It isn’t a total loss for Mitt…they just called Utah for him!

7:02: Romney is up +2% in the popular vote. Somehow I think California will have something to say about that!

7:09: McCaskill is called for Missouri. Have I mentioned how good it is for Americans when Republicans express their true feelings about women’s reproductive health issues…and religion?

7:18: Down goes (not) Joe the (not) Plumber!

7:21: Obama gets New Mexico. Not a surprise, really, unless you are living in the 1990s or something.

7:24: They are getting at the crux of the issue in Florida. Whether Obama or Romney wins, why didn’t Romney WALK AWAY with Florida? The answer: Demography. Republicans rule the demographics that are, for the most part, shrinking.

7:51: Minnesota is called for Obama.

7:57: George Allen has conceded defeat in Virginia!

8:01: Obama gets a big batch of love (and electors) from the West coast: CA, WA, and HI

8:04: (via N in Seatle). We can now say that Paul Ryan’s major contribution to this election is that…it took an extra hour to call Wisconsin. And Wisconsin is called for Barack Obama.

8:06: CNN projects that Democrats will keep control of the Senate. This is a remarkable accomplishment. Over the past couple of years, our right wing trolls have spared no mercy pointing out how the math of hanging on to the Senate just doesn’t work. Shows what they know about math!

8:10: Romney gets North Carolina!

8:10: Obama gets Iowa!!!!

8:15: I hear that NBC has called the ELECTION for Obama.

8:16: In the mean time CNN calls Oregon for Obama.

8:18: And CNN now calls the race for Obama!

8:21: Ohio was called for Obama by PBS CNN and it was that that put him over the top.

8:37: It is hard to get too excited about any of the state or King County races, because King County will only do a single ballot drop tonight.

8:44: On the other hand…now that KC has dropped, Inslee has a pretty hefty lead! Unfortunately the SOS web site is constipated, or I would have some details. DelBene 55% Koster 45%.

8:50: Nevada goes to Obama!

8:53: Back to WA: Inslee 51.7% and McKenna 48.3. Don’t get too excited though. There are many more votes to count, and King County was expected to process more ballots for their Tuesday evening drop than usual.

Thom with The Good, The Bad, and The Very, Very Ugly.

Ed and Pap: Corporate courts will aid GOP’s efforts at voter suppression.

Young Turks: Christopher Hitchens is dead.

Roy Zimmerman Christmas Special:

• I Won’t Be Home For Christmas.
• Christmas in Crawford, 2004.
• PeaceNick.
• Oh Amazon:
• Hula Yule.

Young Turks: Glenn Beck calls the teabaggers racist! Nutbagger Breitbart responds.

White House: West Wing Week.

Ann Telnaes: CEO pay bounces back.

Seattle police release videos they claim show Occupy protesters were violent & organized!.

Thom with more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Young Turks: Tim Tebow’s War on Christmas.

Sheriff Arpaio: IS illegal.

The Republican Circus Show:

• Last night’s debate in 3 minutes. (via HuffPo.
• FAUX News screws up debate candidates:
• The SNL Trump debate.
• Sam Seder: Trump fires self.
• Stephen on Donald Trump pulling out of the debate.
• The Colbert Nat Geo Wild debate.
• Another Rick Perry-ish Strong ad (via Slog).
• Ann Telnaes: Perry’s anti-gay ad.
• Rick Perry: F***-hole Strong ad.
• Actual Audio: Rick Perry’s ad.
• Young Turks: Rick Perry on work hours, Monroe Doctrine.
• Ed, Pap and Lizz: Rick Perry is the GOP’s favorite stooge.
• Daily show: Newt and poor people:
• Thom: GOP’s love affair with Dr. Strange-Newt.
• Sam Seder: Newt’s “Invented People”.
• Ann Telnaes: Newt promises to uphold the sanctity of marriage.
• Newt: Fights for traditional marriage.
• Thom: You’re a mean on, Newt Gingrich.
• Lip Reading Newt:
• Sam Seder: Newt gets mic-checked.
• Liberal Viewer: Is Newt Gingrich a felon?
• Jon tries to rason with GOP voters over this whole Newt Gingrich thing.
• Alyona’s Tool Time: Newt signs fidelity pledge!?!
• Young Turks: Ron Paul crushes Gingrich.
• Mitt’s austerity (oh…the humanity!).
• Guilianiskewers Mitt.
• Sam Seder: Mitt’s $10,000 bet.
• Mitt’s $10,000 problem.
• Christine “Not-a-Witch” O’Donnell endorses Mitt
• Jon on Mitt’s $100,000 bet.
• Wall Street Veterans for Truth: Mitt’s greed is good.
• Sam Seder: Some witch endorses Mitt.
• Young Turks: The Progressive Mitt.
• Mitt’s $100 bill problem.
• Romney vs. Gingrich & Christmas: Review of the GOP Iowa showdown.

Thom: Wisconsin recall (or don’t mess with working people).

Young Turks: Bill-O is shocked to learn that military run by government.

Newsy: No buyers for the newest Palin family reality show.

Stephen with Wag of the finger, tip of the hat.

Thom with even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Alyona: Manning’s first day in court.

Real people speak out for Darcy Burner:

The Nine-year War Ends:

• Newsy: The end of the Iraq war.
• Michelle and Barack speak to the troops at Fort Bragg.
• Mark Fiore: Mission Accomplished-ish.
• Young Turks: The Iraq war is over…the real costs.
• Alyona: Back from Iraq—what we left behind.

Young Turks: Women have a Constitutional right to abortion and it’s being denied.

Alyona’s Tool Time: Congress doesn’t understand the internet.

Obama on ensuring fair pay for in-home care workers.

Thom: Who is winning the “corporate personhood” battle?

Newsy: Teabaggers defend calling Obama a skunk.

How Lowe’s Can You Go?

• Alyona: Lowe’s pulls ads.
• Lowe’s responds to All American Muslim controversy.
• Olbermann: Lowe’s versus the House of Representatives.
• Sam Seder: Muslum hating porn addict brings Lowe’s to their knees.
• Robert A. Niblock, chairman of the board and CEO of Lowe’s, is Worst Person in the World.
• Young Turks: wingdings extremists support Lowe’s.
• Alyona: Calls for a Lowe’s boycott.

Alyona: TIME’s person of the year.

Young Turks: The New York Times defective coverage of Eric Holder’s speech about voter fraud.

Thom: Even more Good, Bad, and Very, Very Ugly.

Alyona: Voters are being silenced.

Joseph Farah, the proprietor of WND.com conspires his way to Worst Person in the World.

Stop detaining immigrants for profit.

Jon on the balls on Herman, Mitt, and Barack.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.