I was hoping to say more about the latest in Syria, but Halloween weekend won that battle. I just finished this book as well, so no way to pull my thoughts together with two kids jacked up on candy and stuck in the house because of the rain. Hope to pull it off for a later one.
Here’s what’s been happening the last two weeks…
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Colbert: Meat ‘n smug vegetarians.
Thom: Are we seeing the rebirth of the KKK?
Mental Floss: Why is there a joker in a deck of cards.
The ten richest members of Congress.
The 2016 GOP Clown Show:
White House: West Wing Week.
The GOP is wrong for us.
John Oliver: I’m not a journalist.
Chris Hayes: Romney defends ObamaCare.
The poorest members of Congress.
Hillary and Friends:
Farron Cousins: Koch brothers spend millions to eliminate solar power.
Benghazi: a reaction:
https://youtu.be/0vIjx4WurjY
Sen. Lehey joins the 15,000 vote club.
Thom: ObamaCare back in court again?!?.
Mental Floss: 22 Horror Movie Facts.
Thom: Public goods & health care.
Maddow: Movie resurrects George W. Bush National Guard service scandal.
All Hallows’ Eve Politics:
Stephen: The Hungry for Power Games.
Seth Meyers: Jokes of the week.
Thom: NOAA defies the GOP McCarthy witchhunt.
Farron Cousins: Did Sarah Palin destroy the Republican Party?
Mental Floss: Misconceptions about pirates .
Congressional Hits and Misses of the week.
Ryan Eyes:
Matthew Filipowicz: Pro-police group thrilled that FAUX News compared #BlackLivesMatter to the Nazis.
Thom: The Good, the Bad & the Very, Very Luctiferously Ugly!
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
– I haven’t turned in my ballot in yet, so I sort of feel like Seattlish is yelling at me. I was going to vote Goodspaceguy to protest how Gregoire has been bad in the position. But now that the Seattle GOP endorsed him (and also he has terrible positions as opposed to blah blah space), I don’t want to send the wrong message. Should I leave it blank? Also, I usually just blindly support the tax advisory votes, because it’s dumb that they’re there, but I’m opposed to the marijuana one because it seems like it took a mess and made it messier in an attempt to clean it up. Also, Port of Seattle and Seattle School Board always feel like they’re close to turning a corner, but it never seems to actually get there. Also, why do we vote on judges? That’s kind of dumb.
– It’s really pretty striking how much the ACA has helped states that are willing to accept that help.
Well…I got a late start at it, but here is your open thread for the GOP debate…
I’ll add some snark and tweetery as the mood strikes.
So…one of the reasons I am so late is that I didn’t realize there was no livestream from CNBC. I ended up on some live-feed that includes a panel of wingnut pundits. Google infowars.com and livestream or something.
One pundit dude refers to “Paul Rino” and later says he doesn’t think Rubio is unqualified.
That Rubio-Jeb(!) exchange is like when your kid whips your ass in one-on-one for the 1st time.
— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) October 29, 2015
5:43: Issues? Issues anyone?
5:47: I agree with Cruz…let’s put some substance into this debate!
5:48: Of course, Cruz dodged a debt ceiling question in the process.
I don't know if anybody else has noticed, but Carly Fiorina consistently comes of as a tad unlikeable. #GOPDebate
— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015
5:49: Awwwwww…that’s adorable. They let Rand talk.
5:50: Christie gets a turn. Christie claims the govt. lies to you about Social Security, and then goes on to make the amateurish mistake of calling it “an entitlement”. It isn’t. You paid in.
I don't know if anybody else has noticed, but Carly Fiorina consistently comes of as a tad unlikeable. #GOPDebate
— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015
Mike Huckabee to Ted Cruz: Keep your Big Government hands off my Social Security.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) October 29, 2015
Remember how the RNC was going to keep GOP debates all civil and orderly this time?
— Kasie Hunt (@kasie) October 29, 2015
By the way, how come Rubio gets counted down for his youth and inexperience while Cruz, the same age and experience, gets a pass?
— David Horsey (@davidhorsey) October 29, 2015
Good question!
Are we at the "I was a poor kid and now I'm rich" part of the debate?
#WheresTheFastForwardButton? #GOPDebate #CNBCGOPDebate
— Left Out Loud (@LeftOutLoud) October 29, 2015
Cruz, "My dad was a single mom…."
— Darryl Holman (@hominidviews) October 29, 2015
So far, the moderators are doing the most damaging thing possible to @realDonaldTrump: ignoring him
— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) October 29, 2015
6:18: Carson is ALL for equal rights for same sex couples…but NO MARRIAGE!
Actually, Ben Carson, believing that LGBT People should have fewer rights than straight people DOES in fact make you a homophobe #GOPDebate
— Will McLeod (@WillMcLeod99) October 29, 2015
Guys, I think Jeb Bush has to make out with Obama: https://t.co/gfDGjXHcJP pic.twitter.com/2c3xUD2QkJ
— igorvolsky (@igorvolsky) October 29, 2015
6:27: The Donald goes after SuperPacs…is he running for Bernie’s VP?
All night candidates have smelled blood, unfortunately for the moderators it's their own
— Joe St. George (@JoeStGeorge) October 29, 2015
6:30: Cruz, “Loose money”. For some reason David Vitter jumps to mind….
I’m still blown away that CNBC couldn’t cite the source on the Trump question. IT’S ON HIS WEBSITE. https://t.co/1cgzqASUYR
— daveweigel (@daveweigel) October 29, 2015
6:34: Mr. Huckabee, I’ve known gas bags and you are one gas bag.
The CNBC moderators seem like substitute teachers: not particularly competent and bullied by smart-alleck students
— Rick Hasen (@rickhasen) October 29, 2015
Incompetent questioning yes, but this was the most important debate to date: it finished off the Bush campaign.
— David Frum (@davidfrum) October 29, 2015
Kasich: "Income inequality is driven by a lack of skills." Not true. Income inequality is driven by rules that are rigged in favor of the 1%
— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015
My guess: After this debate gets factored in only R’s over 5% in national poll average will be Trump, Carson, Rubio and Cruz.
— Samuel Minter (@abulsme) October 29, 2015
Trump clearly doesn't understand what somebody wrote in his immigration plan about H1-B visas. #CNBCGOPDebate
— Josh Rogin (@joshrogin) October 29, 2015
Trump Once Said Of Guns: “Nothing I Like Better Than Nobody Has Them” https://t.co/sEx6df62bl
— Andrew Kaczynski (@BuzzFeedAndrew) October 29, 2015
So far, I think every candidate has had a moment worth touting or YouTubing… except Bush. #NBC2016
— Chuck Todd (@chucktodd) October 29, 2015
6:52: Christie, “When I’m president, police will know it!” Yep. Overtime traffic jam duty pay.
Fiorina makes call for return to Lochner era, saying that there's no constitutional authority for the government to set min wage. #GOPDebate
— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015
Clearly, somebody is doing well in his fantasy football league (amirite, Gov Christie?) #GOPDebate
— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015
Christie just ate Bush's lunch! And probably others. Now this is the inning we have to get some runs!!
— Bill Maher (@billmaher) October 29, 2015
Were this an actual horse race, I'm pretty sure the entire field would be shot. #GOPDebate https://t.co/lD5KIbSCwq
— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015
Winners:
Rubio
Cruz
Christie
Losers:
Paul
Trump
CNBC
— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) October 29, 2015
Huckabee thinks it's easy to eradicate diseases because he knows they don't evolve. #GOPDebate
— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015
Fiorina: "The federal government should not be in a lot of things. The only things they should be in are marriages & women's private areas."
— Craig Rozniecki (@CraigRozniecki) October 29, 2015
7:10: Chris Christie’s run-on, repeated rant is the second “runaway blimp” story of the day!
Chris Christie using that "keep your hands on your wallet line again." (Though to be fair, whenever I'm in NJ I keep my hands on my wallet.)
— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015
7:15: Christie repeatedly said he was “deadly serious” about changing things. Did he mean “dead serious”? In any case, brings to mind that bridge traffic jam….
Rand Paul wants a government so small he can't see it. Like a GOP penis. #GOPDebate
— Wonkette (@Wonkette) October 29, 2015
Trump promises America a lifetime of shorter debates. pic.twitter.com/I7OGMHAICl
— Jim Roberts (@nycjim) October 29, 2015
#CNBCGOPDebate Shut up #MikeHuckabee You're there to sell your book.
— esd2000 (@esd2000) October 29, 2015
"I will change the culture in Washington," says the son and brother of two of the last four presidents. #GOPDebate
— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 29, 2015
That concludes tonight's debate. We return to ongoing blimp coverage underway in Pennsylvania pic.twitter.com/L1eDPf1nph
— Tim Mak (@timkmak) October 29, 2015
@srjones66 I thought tonight's GOP debate was won by @BernieSanders and @HlLLARY split evenly
— ChuckTv (@Chucktv2) October 29, 2015
Well…that was “a thing.” It was my first GOP debate this cycle (and I was mostly listening to the audio), and it was pretty much the vacuous puffery that I expected. The only surprise to me was Trump’s strong statements against PACs. Other than that, Trump was just a meaningless braggart. Rand Paul morphed into Ron Paul, and came off more fringy than ever. Christie spewed pre-prepared platitudes. Rubio sounded angry and whiny. The Huckster is still a nut. Carson said things, but I don’t really remember them. And there were some other people talking, too. The debate moderators were TERRIBLE (and I am sure that is a bipartisan sentiment).
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My previous analysis in this race showed Secretary Clinton just barely leading Sen. Rubio 65% to 35%. Rubio was second to Jeb Bush in performance against Clinton. In the intervening weeks, Rubio has started to crawl out of the mid-tier rankings in the G.O.P. primary. A week ago he placed third in SC, and today we see he is second in NH
Rubio’s primary “surge” hasn’t translated into general election gains. He seems to be losing ground to Clinton. Now after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 92,430 times and Rubio wins 7,570 times (including the 404 ties). Clinton received (on average) 304 to Rubio’s 234 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 92.4% probability of winning and Rubio would have a 7.6% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
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There still too many states that have yet to be polled for this match-up for this analysis to have teeth. I count 27 missing states (plus D.C.) and that number includes the possible swing states of Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, New Mexico and more. We have no polls for Washington state yet, but I don’t think Washington is likely to swing in Trump’s direction.
So why do this analysis? Quite simply, because Clinton and Trump are in the undisputed position of leading in their respective primaries.
Even lacking many state polls, this analysis is instructive for the states we have, and for how Trump’s performance compares to the other candidates. A couple of days ago, a similar analysis of Clinton v. Bush showed Bush leading with a 65% chance of winning an election held now. Trump does significantly worse against Clinton than does Bush.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 96,573 times and Trump wins 3,427 times (including the 952 ties). Clinton received (on average) 315 to Trump’s 223 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 96.6% probability of winning and Trump would have a 3.4% probability of winning. In other words, Clinton would almost certainly win an election held right now.
There are a few surprises at the state level. Both Wisconsin and Virginia heavily lean toward Clinton in the two polls in each state conducted within the past month. Now compare those two states to their geographical and political neighbors Minnesota and North Carolina. There we see things nearly tied. In the “classic” swing states, Trump leads in Florida in four of five polls, but Clinton leads in both Ohio polls and in two of three polls in Pennsylvania. Clinton leads in Kentucky, too, but the poll is from way back in mid-June.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
7 November 2016
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Yesterday’s analysis showed Sec. Hillary Clinton (D) leading Donald Trump (R) with 290 EVs to 248 EVs. If the election was held yesterday, we would expect Clinton to win with an 86.8% chance.
Since that analysis there have been about 28 new polls release that satisfy my inclusion criteria. I should point out, that the new polls include eight new polls from Remington Research (R) and four from Trafalgar Group (R). If the significance of this escapes you, read Goldy’s post.
One of the things I am going to do in this analysis is do two analyses: one with these two pollsters included, and one that excludes all Remington and Trafalgar polls. Pick the one you wish.
Which one is right? It is hard to say. I hate accusing a pollster of producing bogus polls. I’ve had numerous people complain about including this poll or that poll, and I ignore them. The entire premise of my effort is that by aggregating polls broadly, any “house effects” will cancel. But the oddities of Remington are clear. Trafalgar polls also seem quite dodgy.
Okay…Here we go. Scroll down or click here for the alternative analysis.
Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 84,508 times and Trump wins 15,492 times (including the 2,449 ties). Clinton received (on average) 282 (-8) to Trump’s 256 (+8) electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 84.5% probability of winning and Trump would have a 15.5% probability of winning. Thus, Clinton slips a bit, but the race isn’t changing much.
The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 07 Nov 2015 to 07 Nov 2016, and including polls from the preceding ten days (FAQ).
An animated sequence of maps and electoral vote distributions can be seen here
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
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Ideologies tend to get caught in a pattern where whatever set of data points you conjure up, there’s always a way to tie it back to the underlying ideology. That was my thought after reading these two posts from Cato and NRO on Bernie Sanders and Denmark. In the posts, the authors point out that Denmark isn’t what you’d expect if you think of it as a socialist paradise. Sure, they have high taxes and a robust welfare system, but they’re freer than the U.S. when it comes to doing business, and they have roughly the same levels of overall economic freedom.
In this telling, the data is supposed to convey the point that Denmark’s high levels of economic freedom aren’t ideal for someone with a more socialist outlook. But the data is telling us something very different – that bigger government and high taxes don’t automatically lead to a less free environment for people to start and run businesses. There’s an underlying assumption that less economic freedom is somehow an actual goal of the left, rather than a consequence of poorly conceived policies. It would be similar to arguing that if more restaurants open in Seattle, the left should view the minimum rate hike as a failure (“Haha! It didn’t kill people’s economic freedom like you hoped it would, silly liberals!!”).
The main distinction that separates smarter libertarian thinking (which I do believe exists) from this nonsense is understanding that it’s silly to be concerned solely with the size of government instead of focusing on the specific types of powers we allow government to have. Government using taxpayer dollars to provide affordable health care, education, housing, or a high quality transportation system shouldn’t be seen as a threat to liberty in the same way as turning police into a standing army, funneling billions into a system of mass incarceration, or building up a gigantic infrastructure for public surveillance. All are “big government” in a way. The threat posed to our freedom – both economic and otherwise – by each of these things varies widely.
The success of Bernie Sanders’ campaign so far is a growing recognition that the relationship between big government and economic freedom is far more complex than the tired notion that higher taxes and a bigger government automatically leads to less freedom. Looking at someplace like Denmark is a confirmation of that.
News from the last two weeks:
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There have only been something over a dozen new state head-to-head polls since the previous analysis of a general election match-up between Secretary Clinton and Gov. Bush. Previously, the race was, essentially, tied with Clinton having a slight edge. This month, the race is, well…tied. But now Bush has a slight advantage.
The trend can be seen from this graph created from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 16 Oct 2014 to 16 Oct 2015, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).
In the month and a half since the previous analysis, the race has remained a tie, with a bounce in Bush’s favor followed by a bounce in Clinton’s favor. There isn’t much we can make of these bounces statistically. All of the data in the recent polls were collected before the Democratic debate, so we cannot even pretend the uptick in favor of Clinton is related to the debate. What is clear, however, is that this past summer, Clinton lost a significant edge she held over Bush.
For the most recent period, the 100,000 simulated elections, puts Clinton ahead 35,187 times and Bush ahead 64,813 times (including the 2,215 ties). Clinton received (on average) 263 to Bush’s 275 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 35.2% probability of winning and Bush would have a 64.8% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
Have at it!
5:54: I’ll throw in some random stuff like…
Martin O'Malley looks as much like a Democratic president as Mitt Romney looked like a Republican president.
— LOLGOP (@LOLGOP) October 14, 2015
It was hard for him, but Jim Webb remembered all his daughter’s names. That will get the women’s vote.
— Amanda Marcotte (@AmandaMarcotte) October 14, 2015
I like Bernie but he makes want to throw spitballs and make fart noises in the back of class.
— Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) October 14, 2015
Quick fact: Jim Webb and Hillary are the only candidates this cycle who have personally killed people
— David Burge (@iowahawkblog) October 14, 2015
You know…Vincent Foster.
6:00: Anderson is to Hillary as Megyn was to Donald?
6:06: Republican Debate: “Raise your hand if you believe in Evolution.
Democratic Debate: “Raise your hand if you believe in Capitalism.
Chafee wants Democrats to become the Party of Lincoln
— Darryl Holman (@hominidviews) October 14, 2015
Seattle's Roanoke Park Place Tavern is filled with folks paying rapt attention to the #DemDebate. Is it like that at bars nationwide?
— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 14, 2015
Jim Webb should offer to place ads on his forehead. Might sustain the campaign for a little while.
— Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) October 14, 2015
TFW you've convinced your opponents to attack each other while you sit back and watch: pic.twitter.com/xc2le2JbS9
— Scott Bixby (@scottbix) October 14, 2015
Will someone please ask Chafee about the metric system?
— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) October 14, 2015
"I know guns. Guns are friends of mine. You, sir, are no gun." — Jim Webb, basically. #DemDebate
— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) October 14, 2015
6:25: Goldy: “She is better than anyone else in the room.”
Does Webb's head actually pivot on his neck? Serious question. #DemDebate
— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 14, 2015
I will vote for anyone who answers a yes or no question with "yes" or "no."
— Dave King (@DaveKingThing) October 14, 2015
Jim Webb and Herbert Hoover: Separated at birth? #DemDebate pic.twitter.com/JXa2MOL1q7
— Dan Savage (@fakedansavage) October 14, 2015
Seriously… has anybody seen Jim Webb's head pivot? This is really distracting. #DemDebate
— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 14, 2015
This is a terrible answer from Sanders. This is a candidate who was not prepped on foreign policy. Clinton is way out in front, here…
— JeffreyFeldman (@JeffreyFeldman) October 14, 2015
IALL GOING ACCORDING TO PLAN. MT @jbarro: Sanders is here to make Hillary look like a moderate; Webb to make Sanders look like a non-crank.
— Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) October 14, 2015
This #DemDebate is like being speed-interrogated by an inquisitor on meth.
— John Fugelsang (@JohnFugelsang) October 14, 2015
Cyberwarfare? Really?
6:46 Back from intermission. Time for some emails.
Clinton: "This [Benghazi] committee is basically an arm of the Republican National Committee."
— HuffPost Politics (@HuffPostPol) October 14, 2015
6:48: “The American people are sick and tired of hearing about the damn emails!” An that was not Clinton…
6:49: Bernie just earned himself an Ambassadorship.
6:50: “Secretary Clinton, do you want to respond?” “No.” We have ourselves a WINNER!
6:52: ‘Black lives matter” question interrupted by a “Child Abduction Emergency”.
6:54: Where do the get the Atari computers to run those Amber Alert notices?!?
LITERALLY NOBODY HAS CARED ABOUT A CHILD LESS THAN THE PEOPLE IN THIS BAR
— Alithea (@alithea) October 14, 2015
If all lives actually mattered we wouldn't need #blacklivesmatter #DemDebate
— John Fugelsang (@JohnFugelsang) October 14, 2015
#DemDebate I would love to hear Bernie order a meal. "1st of all, let's understand that I want cheese on my burger."
— Paula Poundstone (@paulapoundstone) October 14, 2015
O'Malley: Reinstate Glass-Steagall. (Thanks to Cooper for explaining to stoopid American public what that means.) #DemDebate
— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 14, 2015
The fact that the #DemDebate had to tell us what Glass-Steagall is kinda shows why the crash happened in the 1st place.
— John Fugelsang (@JohnFugelsang) October 14, 2015
Between "five point plan" and Glass-Stiegel, I think a bunch of folks just fled to @Mets and @Dodgers.
#DemDebate
— David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) October 14, 2015
7:08: Chafee just had a slow motion “oops” moment trying to explain his vote.
Linc Chaffee just about pulled a Stockdale with that answer "Who was I, what was I doing there?" #DemDebate #DebateDebateLA
— Lizz Winstead (@lizzwinstead) October 14, 2015
IT WAS HIS FIRST DAY https://t.co/YCZEMWIquE
— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) October 14, 2015
Why the hell haven't any of these people tried to scare me over Mexicans yet. #DemDebate
— John Fugelsang (@JohnFugelsang) October 14, 2015
RNC Rapid Response email count: 8 #nprdebate
— Scott Detrow (@scottdetrow) October 14, 2015
If Don Lemon can only ask about black people and Juan Carlos Lopez can only ask about Hispanics, Wolf Blitzer only gets to ask about wolves.
— Dave Itzkoff (@ditzkoff) October 14, 2015
Shorter Hillary: any of us is better than those assholes on the other side!
— Michael Maddux (@michaeljmaddux) October 14, 2015
Gonna go ahead and predict that Chafee/Webb/O'Malley all stay below 1% after this debate.
— Conn Carroll (@conncarroll) October 14, 2015
Gonna go ahead and predict that Chafee/Webb/O'Malley all stay below 1% after this debate.
— Conn Carroll (@conncarroll) October 14, 2015
Sorry, watching cartoons with a 3-year-old, but did they really ask candidates if they've *used* pot, but not an actual policy question?
— Lee Rosenberg (@Lee_Rosenberg) October 14, 2015
Whenever I start feeling sleepy, I realize Jim Webb is speaking. #DemDebate
— Dominic Holden (@dominicholden) October 14, 2015
Talking time (so far):
Clinton 21:40
Sanders 21:16
Webb 12:29
O'Malley 11:47
Chafee 7:44
(via @meridithmcgraw)
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) October 14, 2015
Webb and his views serve as reminder that the older Democratic Party is not gone, only eclipsed. #nprdebate
— Ron Elving (@NPRrelving) October 14, 2015
Enemy question: Does Jim Webb still suffer from PTSD?!?
— Darryl Holman (@hominidviews) October 14, 2015
Chaffee Bumper Sticker: No scandals and only two mulligans!
— Sam Seder (@SamSeder) October 14, 2015
The debate had many highlights but Jim Webb’s slow grin at the mention of killing a man will *haunt my dreams.*
— Ana Marie Cox (@anamariecox) October 14, 2015
Chafee: "I did my homework… except for that first vote I took. I winged that one." #DemDebate
— Dan Savage (@fakedansavage) October 14, 2015
"The enemy soldier that threw that grenade that wounded me, but he's not around anymore."
So, Jim Webb, gonna whack Congress members?
— Daniel Robinson (@daguro) October 14, 2015
Enemy you're most proud of making?
Chafee: Coal lobby
O'Malley: NRA
Clinton: GOP
Sanders: Wall St, Pharma
Webb: An enemy soldier
#DemDebate
— PBS NewsHour (@NewsHour) October 14, 2015
I'm hoping for his closing, Jim Webb will loosen his tie, and his head will fall off. #DemDebate
— Goldy (@GoldyHA) October 14, 2015
A solid A- for Cooper tonight. Tough questions and, even more surprising, tough follow-ups… 1/2
— Brent Bozell (@BrentBozell) October 14, 2015
I think Clinton’s numbers are gonna jump after tonight. She balanced being warm and fierce — what holdouts were waiting to see. #DemDebate
— Dominic Holden (@dominicholden) October 14, 2015
If Jim Webb had played the I-Killed-A-Guy card earlier, he might have had more success getting Anderson to give him more time.
— Josh Barro (@jbarro) October 14, 2015
– Now that Scott Walker is no longer running for President, we’ll only have like, 1000 or so GOP Presidential candidates to make fun of. Also, Scott Walker when he does terrible things as governor.
– I always feel a bit strange about numbers that I don’t have much context for. $600,000 seems like both a lot and not enough Federal money for body cameras for SPD.
– About Those “Thousands and Thousands” of Planned Parenthood Alternatives
– The security zone for the Chinese President is strange to walk through.
– Even if that Trump questioner was a plant (and there’s no evidence of it), any decent candidate, or human, would be able come up with a good answer.
– Viola Davis’ Emmy speech was so great.
Larry Wilmore: Debunking FAUX News’ mythical “War on Cops”.
Some kid’s bootleg South Park.
The 2016 Clown Show:
Matthew Filipowicz and Emily Atkin: Teabagger threat to Obamacare in Kentucky.
Mental Floss: 24 facts about musicals.
Larry Wilmore: County jerk’s office and Oath Keepers.
Liberal Viewer: Megyn Kelly wrong on law defending Kim Davis, anti-gay KY County Clerk.
Matt Binder: Jade Helm ends…without a hostile take-over.
Boy Builds Clock…Bigot’s Heads Explode:
Mental Floss: Misconceptions about disease.
Greenman: Lonnie and Koni, Senior glaciologists on climate change.
VSauce: The Zipf mystery.
Thom: The Good, the Bad, and the Very, Very Helobiously Ugly!
U.S. Closed for Business:
Sam Seder and Farron Cousins: It’s 2015 and the Wingdings are STILL talking about BENGHAAAAAZZZZZIIIIIII!!!1!!11!
White House: West Wing Week.
Congressional Hits and Misses of the Week.
Minute Physics: Why it’s impossible to tune a piano.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
17 September 2015
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Previous analyses shows that former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) are performing reasonably well (even if losing) against Hillary Clinton in a electoral college election that uses state polling. We might label Bush and Rubio as “top-tier” candidates, except that neither are leading in the G.O.P. primary. Still…they are a threat to Clinton.
Then there is the bottom tier. Certainly, Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) falls into this category based on his abysmal performance against Clinton (0.5% probability of winning to Clinton’s 99.5%).
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) must also be relegated to the bottom of the Republican primary heap, although in fairness, he is doing much better than Walker. Not really a threat, though.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,668 times and Paul wins 2,332 times (including the 99 ties). Clinton received (on average) 329 to Paul’s 209 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.7% probability of winning and Paul would have a 2.3% probability of winning.
Paul is losing in FL, NC, VA, PA, MI, WI, IA, GA, NM and NV, and he is leading, but isn’t really doing that well in his home state of KY.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
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Previous analyses shows that former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) are performing reasonably well (even if losing) against Hillary Clinton in a electoral college election that uses state polling. We might label Bush and Rubio as “top-tier” candidates, except that neither are leading in the G.O.P. primary. Still…they are a threat to Clinton.
Then there is the bottom tier. Certainly, Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) falls into this category based on his abysmal performance against Clinton (0.5% probability of winning to Clinton’s 99.5%).
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) must also be relegated to the bottom of the Republican primary heap, although in fairness, he is doing much better than Walker. Not really a threat, though.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 97,668 times and Paul wins 2,332 times (including the 99 ties). Clinton received (on average) 329 to Paul’s 209 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 97.7% probability of winning and Paul would have a 2.3% probability of winning.
Paul is losing in FL, NC, VA, PA, MI, WI, IA, GA, NM and NV, and he is leading, but isn’t really doing that well in his home state of KY.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
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20 October 2015
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My previous analysis in this race showed Secretary Clinton just barely leading Sen. Rubio 65% to 35%. Rubio was second to Jeb Bush in performance against Clinton. In the intervening weeks, Rubio has started to crawl out of the mid-tier rankings in the G.O.P. primary. A week ago he placed third in SC, and today we see he is second in NH
Rubio’s primary “surge” hasn’t translated into general election gains. He seems to be losing ground to Clinton. Now after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 92,430 times and Rubio wins 7,570 times (including the 404 ties). Clinton received (on average) 304 to Rubio’s 234 electoral votes. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 92.4% probability of winning and Rubio would have a 7.6% probability of winning.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
[Read more…]
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