HorsesAss.Org

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 368 electoral votes	Mean of 170 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 369 to 169 electoral votes. If the election had been held yesterday, Obama would have won with near certainty.

Today there were seven new polls in six states released. As a result, Obama holds his massive lead, but McCain gains back one electoral vote. After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 368 to McCain’s 170 electoral votes. Obama, in an election held now, would have a near-100.0% probability of winning.

More details from this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

After a brief hiatus, the Podcast is back—and with a special guest.

Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels starts the conicnversation on Seattle “inside baseball ” politics Sound Transit’s Prop. 1 ballot measure and mass transportation. The conversation then turns to the piles and piles of money dumped (sometimes illegally) into in the Washington state gubernatorial race. Will Rossi and surrogates succeeded in unifying the haters? And why hasn’t the BIAW been enjoined from spending more money on the race? Goldy laments the lack of editorial outrage from the traditional media over flagrant violations of election financing laws. The panel chit-chats about other races, like the presidential race and the Burner–Reichert race. Goldy, in response to the PI’s endorsement of Reichert, offers the proposition that the Seattle media establishment suffers from mediocrity. With two journalists on the panel, the comment triggers something of a group therapy session….

Goldy was joined by Chairman of the Sound Transit Board of Directors and Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels, Seattle P-I columnist Joel Connelly, Publisher of the Group News Blog, Jesse Wendel, HorsesAss reporter Josh Feit , and Seattle blogging pioneer N in Seattle.

The show is 65:16, and is available here as an MP3:

[audio:http://www.podcastingliberally.com/podcasts/podcasting_liberally_oct_14_2008.mp3]

[Recorded live at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally. Special thanks to Confab creators Gavin and Richard for hosting the site.]

Whenever we pass a ballot measure lowering taxes or limiting government in some way, or reject a measure proposing the reverse, the wise old sages of our media and political establishment always caution that we must follow “the will of the people.”  Yet I have noticed a curious pattern to Dino Rossi, who criticizes Gov. Gregoire for raising the gas tax, advocates for reducing the minimum wage and eliminating the estate tax, and has voted to defund initiatives raising teacher pay and reducing class size… all actions contrary to the will of the people as expressed at the polls.

I-920: Rejected, 38-62
This measure would repeal Washington’s state laws imposing tax, currently dedicated for the education legacy trust fund, on transfers of estates of persons dying on or after the effective date of this measure.

I-912: Rejected, 45-55
Initiative Measure No. 912 concerns motor vehicle fuel taxes. This measure would repeal motor vehicle fuel tax increases of 3 cents in 2005 and 2006, 2 cents in 2007, and 1.5 cents per gallon in 2008, enacted in 2005 for transportation purposes. Should this measure be enacted into law?

I-728: Approved, 72-28
Shall school districts reduce class sizes, extend learning programs, expand teacher training, and construct facilities, funded by lottery proceeds, existing property taxes, and budget reserves?

I-732: Approved, 63-37
Shall public school teachers, other school district employees, and certain employees of community and technical colleges receive annual cost-of-living salary adjustments, to begin in 2001-2002?

I-688: Approved, 66-34
Shall the state minimum wage be increased from $4.90 to $5.70 in 1999 and to $6.50 in 2000, and afterwards be annually adjusted for inflation?

And Rossi’s disregard for the will of the people doesn’t end there, with the candidate promising to build an Alaska Way tunnel that Seattle voters rejected by 70-30 margin, while constantly attacking Gov. Gregoire for failing to build a new Sonics arena that 74% of voters rejected at the polls.  And that’s just off the top of my head.

Huh.  If that’s the way Rossi honors the will of the people while running for office, imagine how much respect he’ll show us once he’s in it.

The Gregoire campaign alerted me this afternoon to this news release from the National Letter Carrier’s union blasting some ads created by the Republican Governors Association to aid Dino Rossi.

The television ad, being run by the Republican Governors Association in support of GOP gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi, shows a man walking a dog, and then a letter carrier (with satchel and mail), leering at young children near an ice cream truck, while in the audio background a woman depicting a mother warns that some convicted sex offenders have not properly registered with law enforcement agencies during the Gregoire administration.

“This television ad is beneath contempt,” said NALC President William H. Young. “It is ludicrous and shameful that the Republican Governors Association would stoop so low as to portray America’s most trusted government agents in this manner just to pump up a specious political argument against the incumbent governor.”

Yeah, that sounds pretty low, although I must confess I haven’t had the pleasure of seeing this particular piece of GOP Party handiwork. Let us know in comments if it pops up on the YouTube.

Talk about “leave no sleaze behind.” I guess they haven’t caught on that regular people get disgusted with demagoguery surrounding this issue. The state House Republicans tried it and look where it got them. The Speaker’s Roundtable, one of the Republican organizing committees, can now meet at a booth at McDonald’s.

As I recall, the fake sex offender postcard was met with widespread editorial board condemnation in this state. Just sayin’.

A couple weeks ago it became clear that our state’s media-political complex had written off Darcy Burner’s chances in Washington’s Eighth Congressional District, and was already busily writing a post mortem.

Darcy had run a disappointing campaign I was told.  She had done nothing since 2006 to polish her resume, or to erode the credentials of her opponent.  She focused on Iraq when voters really only cared about the economy, and was running far to the left of what is at  best a centrist, if not a slightly conservative district.  But worst of all, she was way “too close to the netroots.”  (Whatever that means.)

I heard this critique repeatedly, from journalists from politicos and from elected officials, sometimes firsthand, sometimes second, and sometimes through the whisper down the lane chorus that crowds the road to conventional wisdom.  I’ve even heard it suggested that I personally have done more to harm Darcy’s prospects than help, my relentless “cheerleading” spurring some in the media to turn against Darcy, if only out of spite.

Darcy and the netroots were going to lose a second blue wave election, and it was our own damn fault.  And, it seemed to me, there were some on the Democratic side of the partisan divide who were taking greater satisfaction in this “epic fail” than one would justifiably expect from their Republican counterparts.

Then, over the past couple days, and obviously promoted by both Democratic and Republican sources, this pre-post mortem started to appear in print, echoed in Eli Sanders’ premature articulation in The Stranger, and then oddly enough, bluntly stated in the pages of Time Magazine under the unequivocable headline: “Will the Netroots Sink a Microsoft Dem?”

Even as Burner’s campaign has become more of a long shot, she is increasingly a cause celebre in the liberal blogosphere. The website Daily Kos calls her “a netroots hero” and sees her struggle as a crusade for liberal bloggers as well. “Taking Darcy down, in their minds,” wrote one of Kos’ main posters, McJoan, about national Republicans, “means taking us down, Neutering us.” But her tight ties to the liberal blogosphere may well be her ultimate downfall.

[…] “Darcy Burner is pretty open about the fact that she wants to go to Congress to represent the netroots,” Reichert’s campaign manager Mike Shields, told the Seattle Times. “That is her constituency, and that is who she raised money from, and so that’s who she’ll do the bidding of.” But Democrats worry about the association as well. “The big question people are quietly asking about her,” says one local Democratic consultant, “is, in building her movement, did she lose touch with the people she sought to serve?”

Notice that the article is sourced almost entirely secondhand, with no effort by the author to talk to either campaign.  In fact, the only first hand sources cited in the entire piece are identified as “one local Democrat” and “one local Democratic consultant.”  (The same person?)  This thesis, that the netroots are an anchor around Darcy’s neck, is clearly being promoted by Democrats as well as Republicans, and has been eagerly embraced by a media establishment that is just as fearful as their political counterparts of the challenge we pose to the status quo.

But the problem with this thesis, that conveniently blames the netroots for the Democrats losing a district that has never before elected a Democrat, is that it is based on three assumptions, all of which happen to be unproved by the facts on the ground, that A) Darcy is indeed “too close” to the netroots; that B) a significant fraction of 8th CD voters have any idea what “the netroots” are, or where Darcy stands in relation to us; and that C) Darcy is in fact losing her race against Reichert.

[Read more…]

So both Vancouver-Portland metro dailies have now endorsed Gov. Chris Gregoire, Democrat, over Dino Rossi, GOP Party. From The Oregonian:

Attacking the gas tax, he has argued that major transportation improvements that Washington needs desperately could be financed out of the state’s general fund without new revenue. His recent TV ads making dark charges about the state’s oversight of sexual predators have been found both odious and inaccurate by many of the state’s law enforcement officers.

Rossi’s arguments, and the voice he would provide to an element of the state that too often feels unheard, don’t outweigh Gregoire’s impressive first term.

Washington voters should give her another.

Yeah, I know, they’re just newspaper endorsements. Campaigns covet them but it’s pretty hard to claim they influence that many voters.

Still, lots of folks on the north side of the Columbia subscribe to The Oregonian, so it’s worth noting. Editorial boards seem to be noticing Gregoire’s steady hand.

Won’t someone please put the McCain campaign out of its misery?

What is Dino Rossi trying to hide from voters?  Well, we likely won’t know until after the election, as a King County Superior Court judge has delayed her decision until next week on whether to quash a subpoena to depose Rossi about his involvement in the growing Buildergate scandal.

And while the Rossi camp can be audibly heard sighing in relief, our state’s editorialists, usually champions of sunlight and open government, continue to yawn, apparently unconcerned about Rossi’s role in what is without a doubt the most blatant and egregious violation of our campaign finance laws in our state’s history.  Un-fucking believable.

Obama	McCain
100.0% probability of winning	0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 369 electoral votes	Mean of 169 electoral votes

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 270 to 168 electoral votes (on average). With the addition of 17 new polls in 13 states today, Obama slips by one electoral vote.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins all 100,000 times. Obama receives (on average) 369 to McCain’s 169 electoral votes. There is solid evidence to suggest that Obama would win an election held today with near certainty. He is back to “only” a 100 electoral vote surplus.

Detailed results for this analysis are available at Hominid Views.

Methods are described in the FAQ.The most recent version of this analysis can be found on this page.

Who is this “Batman?”

(Props to Ezra Klein.)

Late Joe the Plumber coverage: According to Ben Smith at The Politico, it appears Joe the Plumber is not registered to vote in Ohio. He’s apparently going to be on all morning shows ever created, including “Wake Up Finland.” Maybe someone will ask him about this whole “actually bothering to vote” thing. Seeing as he’s so, so concerned about his taxes.

(UPDATE–8:40 AM Oct. 16– I wanted to go back to Politico this morning to double-check about Joe the Plumber’s voter registration, and sure enough Politico has a link to the Toledo Blade, which reports that a Samuel Joseph Worzelbacher is registered to vote in Ohio as a Republican. Not clear why the difference in spelling.)

Joe the Plumber told Katie Couric he doesn’t actually make $250,000 a year yet, but is concerned about a “slippery slope.” Then Joe the Plumber compared Obama to Sammie Davis, Jr., (as in he was dancing,) which made Katie LOL. I wonder if Joe the Plumber knows Sammie was um, Jewish?

As if McCain needs more problems in Florida…

Even MORE debate coverage Although this time it’s from the WSJ 2000 election archives. Good old John Fund ‘splains about sighing.

Mr. Gore sighed with deep impatience throughout the debate in an attempt either to distract George W. Bush in his answers to debate questions or influence the audience. Yesterday Mr. Gore blamed his behavior on the TV cameras. “Under the debate rules, we were told there was going to be no coverage of our reactions when the other guy was talking.”

This is preposterous. Mr. Gore’s sighs were highly theatrical in nature, and he accompanied them with a series of squints, grimaces and eye-rolling that couldn’t have been accidental.

I’m sure Fund will be in similar high dudgeon tomorrow.

Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire and Republican challenger Dino Rossi like to talk a lot about bipartisanship and “reaching across the aisle.” 

I guess it polls well. 

But I think Washington voters are lying to the pollsters. 

Check this out. Washington, right behind Oregon, is the most polarized state in the union. 

Thanks Sightline thanks FiveThirtyEight.

I’m still at the Ale House, but can’t hear the debate, and Trivia Night starts in half an hour, so I’m not sure how much live blogging I can do.  But that doesn’t stop you from spewing your hearts out in the comment threads.

UPDATE (8:05):
Minimum wage, right of the bat, an issue by the way, that was first brought to attention via Josh’s coverage of the AWB debate.  Your contributions at work.

UPDATE (8:08):
You know, I’m not so sure that Rossi wants to make this about who shares whose values.

UPDATE (8:13):
I guess, the bright side about Postman leaving, at least for Andrew Garber, is that Garber gets to do a little TV for a change.

UPDATE (8:19):
Rossi keeps talking about how he balanced the budget in 2003.  Um… he wasn’t governor in 2003.  (Or ever.) He started with Gov. Locke’s budget, and then made it a bit more draconian.  In fact, at the press conference in which he announced “his” budget, the PowerPoint presentation started with the headline:  “Following the Governor’s Lead.”  So why the fuck does everybody let him get away with this bullshit about how he supposedly “balanced” a budget?

UPDATE (8:21):
So far, neither candidate has mentioned “Joe the Plumber.”  Refreshing.

UPDATE (8:26):
So Rossi shrugs off an accusing Gregorie of “laundering money” by saying it was produced by a “third party”… you know, the BIAW “fund for Rossi” for which he solicited contributions.  You’d think maybe, our editorial boards would comment on the irony.

UPDATE (8:42):
I don’t think transportation is a winning issue for Rossi. Voters here are about to pass Prop 1 to expand light rail, and voters in the rest of the state couldn’t give a shit about traffic congestion or our infrastructure deficit.  But what do I know?

UPDATE (8:47):
The problem with Gregoire arguing that Rossi cut a billion dollars from education, is that it validates the notion that Rossi actually balanced budgets.  Which he didn’t.  He chaired the budget committee in the state Senate, which was only marginally in Republican hands, and the final budget was large based on Gov. Locke’s initial proposal. So if I were Gregoire, I’d be talking about what Rossi wants to cut, or wanted to cut, rather than what he did cut.

UPDATE (8:51):
The camera isn’t loving Gov. Gregoire, particularly in the split screens.  But here’s a question… is Rossi coming off as more likeable?   I think voters thought he did in 2004, and it was largely on that basis (plus the lack of understanding about where he actually stood on issues) that he made the election so close.  But even if four years later, voters don’t particularly like Gregoire (I’m not saying they actively dislike her, but it’s the whole who would you like to have a beer with thing), they’ve grown comfortable with her.  She’s not scary.  So does Rossi come off as genuinely likable, or just less wonky and officious than Gregoire?

WRAP UP (SORTA):
From where I was sitting, it was hard to hear the debate above the background noise, so I’ll have to watch it again to get a fair impression, but anecdotally, those in the bar who did watch the debate, both inside the bubble bloggers like myself, and ordinary citizens, thought that Gregoire just plain kicked Rossi’s ass.  I hope so.  And I hope there were enough viewers to make a difference.

I’m trying to live blog the presidential debate from the Montlake Ale House, wireless router gods permitting.

UPDATE (6:12):
Anybody who had “Joe the Plumber” on their debate bingo card has already won.

UPDATE (6:17):
When John McCain speaks, the CNN squiggle flat-lines like Dick Cheney’s heart.

UPDATE (6:18):
McCain:  “I know how to save billions of dollars in defense spending”… but I’m not going to tell you.  Shhh.

UPDATE (6:20):
McCain brings up the “overhead projector” bullshit again, even after it has been thoroughly debunked.  Has he no shame?  (Don’t answer… it was a rhetorical question.)

UPDATE (6:25):
Obama:  “Even FOX News disputes it.”  Big laugh here at the Ale House but little response from the squiggly line.  Speaking of which, there have been huge disparities between the men and the women in the CNN squiggly line.  Lee’s theory is that the men in the squiggly line group are drunk.  Could be.

UPDATE (6:29):
This is, by the way, a crappy, uninformative debate, and I don’t think either candidate is doing particularly well.  But then Obama doesn’t have to do particularly well, he just needs to do well enough.

UPDATE (6:31):
McCain:  “Joe the Plumber”…!!!

UPDATE (6:33):
Obama said “tit”…!  (Of course, he also said “tat”, but I’m sure there’s an FCC fine in there somewhere.)

UPDATE (6:40):
Apparently, due to a glitch, comments have been off.  Oops.  Fixed it.

UPDATE (6:41):
The candidates have been asked about their running mates.  Lee asks whether it’s too late for McCain to dump Palin in favor of Joe the Plumber.

UPDATE (6:42):
Obama:  Joe Biden “fights for the little guy.”  How many electoral votes does Munchkinland have?

UPDATE (6:45):
McCain:  Palin “understands the needs of special needs families.”  And nothing meets the special needs of a Downs baby like running for Vice President.  I’m just sayin’.

UPDATE (6:47):
McCain thinks we can build 45 new nuclear power plants “right away.”  What… are they built out of Legos?  Mashed potatoes?

UPDATE (6:56):
The squiggly line (which by the way, represents Ohio voters) really liked Obama talking about Detroit making the fuel efficient cars of the future.)

UPDATE (6:59):
McCain:  “Joe the Plumber”…!!!

UPDATE (7:04):
First candidate to promise to buy the Ale House a new wireless router gets my vote.

UPDATE (7:10):
So… McCain says that there should be no litmus test for appointing a Supreme Court justice, and that he would appoint justices purely on their qualifications, but… he doesn’t believe that a judge who has supported Roe v. Wade is qualified to serve on the Supreme Court.  Get that?  No litmus test.  Except, you know, abortion.

UPDATE (7:15):
I’m not so sure that Obama should be going on the defensive so much.  He’s spending way too much time defending himself against McCain’s bullshit charges, when he should be either attacking McCain, or talking substantively about issues.  But maybe that’s just me.

UPDATE (7:18):
Turns out, the plumbers union was the first national union to endorse Barack Obama.  Got that Joe?

UPDATE (7:20):
McCain wants to “find bad teachers another line of work.”  You know, like plumbing.

UPDATE (7:25):
I think Obama started slow, but once again is closing stronger than McCain, providing more specificity, and being more considerably more coherent, whereas McCain stays mostly on the attack. Perhaps this debate might be considered more of a draw than the previous two, but that’s just not good enough for McCain, who not only needs to win over undecided voters, he needs to win over some soft Obama voters as well.

UPDATE (7:29):
McCain’s closing statement:  “America needs a new direction.  We cannot continue doing what we’ve been doing for the past eight years.”  And so, that means we should elect a Republican?

UPDATE (7:31):
Obama’s closing statement.  He also doesn’t think we can afford to follow the same failed policies of the past 8 years.  So they agree on something.  More substantive, policy oriented closing, and that pleased the squiggly lines, especially the women.

GOLDY’S WRAP UP:
Not as sucky as the second debate, but not as good as the first one, and there’s no way McCain did what he desperately needed to do to change the dynamic of this race.  We’ll wait for the insta-polls to figure out who won, but it doesn’t really matter anymore, does it.  Stick a fork in it, this race is done.

Oh… and I loved David Gergen’s comment about McCain… it looked like “an exercise in anger management.”