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Retail sales have plummeted.

Retail sales plunged by the largest amount on record in October as the financial crisis and the slumping economy caused consumers to sharply cut back on their spending.

The Commerce Department said Friday that retail sales fell by 2.8 percent last month, surpassing the old mark of a 2.65 percent drop in November 2001 in the wake of the terrorist attacks that year.

Name the sector, for the most part it’s not looking good.

Prof. Krugman, you know the one who got that Nobel prize thing, says a massive stimulus package is needed. Like $600 billion worth. It’s a figure well shy of what the batshit insane Paulson bailout (or whatever the hell it is today) received, but it’s real money.

Krugman is undoubtedly correct, but the key political question is how to keep the kleptocratic lobyists from Wall Street and Washington, D.C. from intercepting it.

Everyone probably recalls how the Republican Party ran its infamous “K Street Project” under Tom Delay in order to further its corrupt goals.

Maybe the Obama administration needs to run a “Main Street Project” that seeks to place stimulus funds out of reach of the crooks and liars. It would be far healthier for the economy in the long run to have millions of ordinary Americans make rational spending decisions rather than enabling a small group of executives to do so. They’ll just spend it on seaweed wraps and “vinotherapy” and shit anyhow.

And no, the way to do a stimulus plan is not to mail checks to everyone. A true stimulus plan would start with extending unemployment benefits and increasing grants to the states, where you get your most economic bang for your buck, paying particular attention to community colleges and other places folks can receive career related education and training.

If transportation and other infrastructure projects are quickly funded as well, we’re still not going to avoid some fairly significant economic pain, but getting money out into the real economy is absolutely essential if we’re going to avoid a complete disaster. It sure seems like we’re looking at a year or two of hard times, minimum, no matter what.

Another challenge is to come up with sensible regulations for the banking and wider financial sector so that the crooks and liars can’t get away with this again, at least in our lifetimes. And you have to do this while somehow sorting out the so-called credit freeze, which at times is described as easing in the traditional media and at times appears to still be a significant problem. This is another area where extra attention needs to be paid to Main Street, to make sure the myriad small and medium size businesses in our country can obtain the credit they need to operate.

The burst housing bubble and related mortgage scandal are huge factors here, and while finding ways to help folks keep their homes is an admirable goal, the best way to stabilize housing prices is to ensure ordinary folks can afford to buy them. Programs that offer relief to individuals facing foreclosure might be some help, and are certainly a humane idea, but defining which Americans get that relief is complicated and problematic in practice. I’m not saying it shouldn’t be done, I’m just suggesting that approach has obvious limitations.

The frightening thing for the new administration, and all Americans, is how many goals need to be achieved in short order.

The more I read about the shooting last weekend in Everett, the fishier it seems to get. Dustin Willard, 31, was shot to death by three Everett police officers last Saturday night after they claim he pointed a gun at them from his front porch and refused to obey orders to put it down. The police were responding to a call from a neighbor who thought they saw someone breaking into Willard’s house.

Willard was a well-liked individual with no criminal record. Normally, people like that don’t point guns at police officers. Something isn’t right with this case, and hopefully we’ll find out what actually happened.

More information than Sarah Palin or you probably want, but I prefer to sleep in the raw.

With late ballots strongly trending Republican statewide, flipping several apparent election night Democratic legislative and local wins into the Republican column, there had been some nervous chatter about the narrowing margin in the race for Commissioner of Public Lands.  Well, with Republican incumbent Doug Sutherland trailing by 17,000 votes with less than 100,000 ballots left to count—40,000 of them in heavily Democratic King County—I think it once again safe to proclaim Peter Goldmark the winner.

Still no concession yet from Sutherland though.

What the hell is going on with Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty (R)? Has he, too, become a shameless propagandist?

Last night (Wed.) on FOX News’ Hannity and Colmes Pawlenty said:

Minnesota has a reputation of clean and fair and good elections. […] However finding 32 ballots in a trunk of a car and supposedly forgetting that they were there is suspicious.

The “32 ballots in the trunk of Minneapolis Elections Director Cindy Reichert’s car” story is a fabrication (or, a bizarre misunderstanding) by one of Sen. Norm Coleman’s lawyers.

David Brauer, a political reporter at MinnPost, documents the rumor’s origin and demise:

Reichert is all too happy to provide an explanation. She says the “car ballot” story is “just not true,” painting a picture of normal balloting procedures twisted into something grotesquely misleading.

The “car ballot” story emerged Saturday from the mouth of Coleman lawyer Fritz Knaak, who, according to AP, told reporters, “We were actually told ballots had been riding around in her car for several days, which raised all kinds of integrity questions.”

Knaak never provided a source and did not return two MinnPost calls for comment. However, he was already backing off his story at the same press event. As that day’s Pioneer Press noted, “Knaak said he feels assured that what was going on with the 32 ballots was neither wrong nor unfair.”

It’s odd that Pawlenty continues to propagate a rumor that was, essentially, retracted by the rumor’s creator on the same day it was created.

At this point, those who continue to spread the rumor are either willfully ignorant, or are happy to lie in order to “catapult the propaganda.” Which is it for Pawlenty?

Earth to Washington, D.C. Earth to Washington, D.C. Come in Washington, this is Earth. Over.

Calculated Risk quotes Campbell Surveys on plunging house sales

According to the survey firm, Campbell Communications, buy-side agents responding to the survey indicated a 19% drop in completed transactions between the months of September and October. Declines were especially severe for sales of non-distressed properties in states where home prices have fallen rapidly during the past year, agents indicated. For example, buy-side agents indicated a 22% decline in non-distressed sales in Florida, a 32% drop in California, and a 51% drop in Michigan.

Washington, D.C., we’ve got a situation here.

The Columbian reports that foreclosures have spiked again in Clark County, which had previously (sorta kinda) weathered the storm okay.

Local foreclosure rates had appeared to be leveling off in September, when 144 foreclosures were filed in Clark County, up just 3 from the same month the year before. But the lull — down from more than 290 foreclosures filed here in August — was short-lived.

The number of Clark County homes in foreclosure in October jumped by more than 63 percent over September numbers.

The county’s foreclosures in October accounted for 5.5 percent of the 4,278 foreclosures filed statewide. Washington had the 17th-highest foreclosure rate out of 50 states, according to RealtyTrac, which incorporates data filed during several stages of foreclosure. Oregon ranked No. 16.

Washington, D.C., you need to stop fooling around now. You there, Washington, D.C.?

Naomi Klein spells things out in an article for Rolling Stone.

Unfortunately, many of the banks appear to have no intention of wasting the money on loans. “At least for the next quarter, it’s just going to be a cushion,” said John Thain, the chief executive of Merrill Lynch. Gary Crittenden, chief financial officer of Citigroup, had an even better idea: He hinted that his company would use its share of the cash — $25 billion — to buy up competitors and swell even bigger. The handout, he told analysts, “does present the possibility of taking advantage of opportunities that might otherwise be closed to us.”

And the folks at Morgan Stanley? They’re planning to pay themselves $10.7 billion this year, much of it in bonuses — almost exactly the amount they are receiving in the first phase of the bailout. “You can imagine the devilish grins on the faces of Morgan Stanley employees,” writes Bloomberg columnist Jonathan Weil. “Not only did we, the taxpayers, save their company…we funded their 2008 bonus pool.”

Uh, Washington, D.C., we got a lot of citizens starting to turn blue here. Copy?

Reuters reports on higher than expected job losses.

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose last week to 516,000, the highest level since the weeks following the September 11, 2001 attacks, the Labor Department reported on Thursday.

U.S. imports fell by a record 5.6 percent in September and exports suffered their steepest drop since September 2001, narrowing the monthly trade deficit slightly more than expected, a U.S. Commerce Department report showed on Thursday.

Come in, D.C. Don’t know if you copy but it looks like people are starting to think about taking matters into their own hands. Situation critical. Repeat. Situation critical.

What would happen if a bunch of people just stopped paying their mortgages in order to get a better deal? Irvine Housing Blog relays admittedly anecdotal evidence from an acquaintance who is a real estate agent:

My friend, a very smart person, math thesis of the year award winner in college, with a masters degree in math, vice principle at a high school making excellent money, expresses to his neighbor that he is upset that his home is worth $100,000 less than he paid for it, however his neighbor then explains that he received a $100,000 principle write down by not paying his mortgage and negotiating a loan modification. Stopping by his house a few weeks ago on the way back from Las Vegas my friend explained this to me and said he thinks that he is going to get a modification as well.

I hope you copy D.C.

Everyone on board, prepare for impact.

Earth out.

After eight months on the market, it looks like the Blethen family has finally found a buyer for its struggling Maine newspaper properties, and while the terms of the deal have not been announced, it is likely the Blethens will ultimately realize a nine-figure loss on their ten-year foray into the media market of their ancestral homeland.  Looks like Frank’s own business decisions will end up costing his heirs a helluva lot more than Washington’s estate tax.

That said, any sale is good news for the Blethens, who need the cash to help shore up the sagging fortunes of their flagship Seattle Times.  And anything that helps stabilize their publisher’s finances is surely good news for Times staffers, who are already bracing themselves for another round of layoffs, expected to be finalized this week.

I’ll be on KOMO 1000’s The Commentators this morning near the top of the 11AM hour, talking about yesterday’s PDC meeting on “internet lobbying,” and whether reporting regulations should be extended to bloggers like me.

Irvine Housing Blog explains why ARM resets aren’t finished, and just how bad things might get, at least in California. Yikes.

And since California is basically the size of a country all by itself, it’s kind of difficult to be optimistic about a quick rebound of housing prices on the West Coast. You could give AIG $25 billion a day for the next year and it wouldn’t help much, unless they hold all their parties in vacant houses rented for the occasions.

This socialism stuff is hard. Can I interest you in a used car (company?)

With about 50,000 ballots left to count, Democratic challenger Mark Begich has pulled ahead of Alaska US Senator Ted Stevens by an insurmountable 3 vote margin.

Well, no, 3 isn’t really an insurmountable number, but from what I’m hearing from the people on the ground in Alaska, the trends most likely are.  So perhaps Alaskans really haven’t reelected a convicted felon.

UPDATE:
Oops.  Begich now leads by 814 votes.

I’m sitting in the PDC meeting right now, courtesy of Toby Nixon, who reminded me of it when he stopped by Drinking Liberally last night, and I realize I forgot to report that Toby has announced that he will not be running for the now elected position of King County Elections Director.

Toby was one of the forces behind changing the position from appointed to elected, and given his interest in the elections process (and his failure to win back his seat in the state House), many of us just assumed he’d run for the post.  Well… no.

Given our conversation last night, I wouldn’t rule out another run for the legislature, but as for now, we won’t have Toby Nixon to kick around anymore.

During the 2004 gubernatorial contest in Washington state, the Republicans, as part of their “election fraud” propaganda campaign, needed an enemy with a name and a face.

Their primary victim was King County Records, Elections and Licensing Director Dean Logan, who was mercilessly vilified through the contest, court case and even afterward. They might have gone after our Secretary of State, Sam Reed, except that he’s a Republican. (They did go after him to a lesser extent after losing the lawsuit).

In Minnesota, it looks like Secretary of State Mark Ritchie is going to be the Republican’s first target. TPM Muckraker has obtained a three-page “backgrounder” put out by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC).

The NRSC origin of this memo highlights one big difference between the Washington state 2004 gubernatorial election and the Minnesota 2008 Senate race—the addition of an important target audience for the latter. Ultimately it is the Senate who will seat either Franken or Coleman. The election results, certified by Secretary of State Ritchie, will be used to guide the Senate (as per Article I of the U.S. Constitution) in seating the winner.

One long-shot strategy for the Republicans is to discredit Ritchie enough to cast doubt on his impartiality in certifying a close Franken win. The Republicans would challenge the election in the Senate (as sometimes happens) with the aim of not seating Franken.

Light blogging this morning, as I head down to Olympia, where the Public Disclosure Commission is holding a “Stakeholder Meeting Regarding Internet Lobbying.”  Considering some of the questions that will be addressed, I think I’m what one might describe as a stakeholder:

Lobbying Blogs (Web logs)?
o       Are lobbying postings and responses on blogs reportable?
o       Are funds provided to “tip jars” (donation links) on lobbying blogs reportable?

Um… hell no.

If the PDC were to adopt such rules, they would instantly become a playground for harassing bloggers, with organizations and individuals filing PDC complaints willy nilly.  Such rules would also be a major lawsuit waiting to happen, as I’m going to make it clear that under no circumstances would I comply with such rules should they pass… unless, of course, they apply the exact same regulations to Frank Blethen and his staff of paid lobbyists.

I’ll report back from the meeting, but in the meanwhile, the PDC’s Lori Anderson is soliciting public comments, and you can send her an email here.

Join us at the Seattle chapter of Drinking Liberally for an evening of politics under the influence. Officially, we start at 8:00 pm at the Montlake Ale House, 2307 24th Avenue E. Some folks show up early to enjoy the cuisine.

Tonight’s activity?

Gloating.

If you find yourself in the Tri-Cities area this evening, McCranium shoud have the scoop on the local Drinking Liberally. Otherwise, check out the Drinking Liberally web site for dates and times of a chapter near you.