Mark 6:35
By this time it was late in the day, so his disciples came to him. “This is a remote place,” they said, “and it’s already very late.
Discuss.
by Goldy — ,
Mark 6:35
By this time it was late in the day, so his disciples came to him. “This is a remote place,” they said, “and it’s already very late.
Discuss.
by Darryl — ,
Russ Feingold hits Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) on student loans.
Conan and Sen. Franken: Humor in politics.
Obama to Congress: Louisiana may need more funding.
Thom: Tribal rights & the Dakota access pipeline.
What the polls do to us.
Clinton Makes History:
Farron Cousins: Alt Right—Just another name for mainstream Republican.
The Other Washington episode 6.5: Paid sick leave.
Thom: The secret list of those who have voted twice.
Colbert: Real Tim Kaine reacts to fake Tim Kaine.
Run The Jewels: “Nobody Speak”.
White House: West Wing Week.
The 2016 White Nationalist- Drumpf-Fest:
Bassem Youssef: The ISIS Hunter.
David Pakman: The FAUX sex scandal explodes.
Young Turks: Gov. Paul LePage leaves homophobic meltdown voicemail.
America’s worst idea.
Pres. Obama celebrates 100 years of National Parks.
Thom: Voter suppression and the mathematical proof.
Young Turks: Andrea Tantaros, “Faux News a sex-fueled, Playboy mansion-like cult
Tim Kaine jams with Jon Batiste and Stay Human.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
Young Turks: Feds to phase out for-profit prisons.
Nightly Show: Super depressing deep dive into America’s opioid epidemic.
Jonathan Mann: Good use of polling, bad use of polling.
John Oliver: American Petroleum Institute.
July was the hottest month ever recorded.
Bassem Youssef: America First!
What is a digital passport?
The 2016 Breitbart-Brand White Nationalist Drumpf Show:
Mental Floss: 46 odd and surprising stats and figures.
Hillary ROAST!
Minute Physics: The Twins Paradox primer.
Sam Seder: Bill-O-the-Clueless-Clown suggests #BlackLivesMatter is like KKK.
Robots for President?
Bad Lip Reading The Democratic National Convention.
Eric Schwartz: Don’t Vote:
Liberal Viewer: Larry Wilmore suggests Drumpf & Hillary are different kinds of liars
Susie Sampson gets Weiner-ed.
Bassem Youssef: How can Muslims act “normal”.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
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The Monte Carlo analysis of state head-to-head polls last week showed Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump in electoral votes by an average of 325 to 213, and with Clinton having a 99.7% probability of winning an election held then.
Since then, 24 new polls have been released in 13 states. Some states have multiple polls, for example, Florida with five and New Hampshire with three.
Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,999 times and Trump wins the single Electoral College outcome that was a tie. Clinton received (on average) 337 to Trump’s 201 electoral votes. The results suggest that, in an election held now, Clinton would have a near 100.0% probability of winning.
Here is how the race has evolved in some key states.
Florida gains five new polls that solidly favor Clinton (+3%, +6%, +1%, +5%, and +9%). The new polls move Florida from a 67.1% probability of a Clinton victory last week to a 98.2% probability now.

Georgia flips from light blue to light red. Of the seven current polls, Clinton leads in only two of polls. Last week Clinton only had a 68.6% probability of taking the state. That has now shrunk to a 24.2% probability.

Maine gets one new poll that shows Clinton up by +10% and with 100% probability of taking the state. Unfortunately, the new poll does not provide congressional district results. The last poll that did that was from June, and showed Trump with a slight lead in one district. It would be great to get some polling in ME CDs.
New Hampshire gets three new polls (and one aging out). The oldest poll shows Trump with a +9% margin, but Clinton has the lead in the last four polls by +15%, +13%, +10%, and +9%. Clinton goes from a 38% probability of taking the state last week to a 99.9% probability this week.

One new North Carolina poll pushes Clinton from a 50.1% probability of taking the state to a 90.8% probability. She leads in the most recent two of the three current polls.

Ohio loses one poll that aged out, and has shrunk Clinton’s chances from 81% to 65%. Clinton leads in three polls (+4%, +4%, +2%) and Trump leads in one (+3%). The result is a near toss-up

South Carolina finally gets a current poll, but Trump is only up by +2% in the new poll. This small lead gives him a 72.6% probability of winning the state today.

In Virginia, two new polls come in and one old one ages out. Clinton leads in the most recent three polls by double digits with Trump leading (+4%) in the oldest poll. Clinton would almost certainly win Virginia in an election now.

Washington state gets a current poll that gives Clinton a +19% lead. Needless to say, she approaches a 100% probability of winning the state right now.
Last week, the most recent Wisconsin poll was from Marquette University taken in mid-July. Clinton was up +4.1%. Marquette just released their August poll and Clinton now has a +14% lead over Trump. The results suggest she would take Wisconsin with a 99.7% probability today.

The distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] shows all possible Electoral College outcomes:
[Read more…]
by Darryl — ,
No cure for lobbying addiction.
Thom: The Good, the Bad & the Very Very Reboanticly Ugly!
Sen. Rubio (R-FL) Zika virus no excuse to get an abortion
Thom: Where are the Koch brothers?
White House: West Wing Week.
David Hawkings’ Whiteboard:Is August recess work or play?
Most hated candidates ever.
This Week’s Drumpf Blooper Reel:
Mark Fiore: Who’s on whose side?
Bill Maher: Future headlines.
Steve Kornacki: Hillary Clinton outreach to GOP makes left uneasy .
New Scientist: The brain’s waste removal system.
FAUX Fallout:
Mental Floss: Why are there 24 hours in a day?
Did Clinton lie about her emails?
Red State Update: Will Trump debate Clinton? Julian Assange & murdered DNC staffer!
BrideGate Lies:
Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Carl Ballard — ,
I’m going on vacation pretty soon. I plan to keep up the contingent of nonsense Open Threads, and then hopefully when I get back, to start posting more.
Anyway, do you have any recommendations for light summer reading? Beach read or airplane. I have this on hold from the library, but I’m not sure it’s going to arrive in time.
by Darryl — ,
Jimmy Dore: WA-7-CD progressive candidate Pramila Jayapal gets Bernie’s blessing.
Thom: Most disturbing climate change events we have seen yet.
The Devil and Stephen Colbert:
Jimmy Dore: The story (and meta-story) behind the Iran cash drop story.
The Drumpf Implosion:
Hillary gets psyched for the Olympics.
Jimmy Dore: Bill-O-the-Clown on the silver lining in slavery.
Stephen: Cartoon Hillary on her disappearance.
Thom: The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Seriously Ugly!
MinutePhysics: How long is a sun day?
Jimmy Dore: Political jokes of the week.
Roy Zimmerman: “Burn, Goody Clinton”:
https://youtu.be/Pfv6wOTPTGM
Young Turks: Kansas proves Republican policies don’t work.
G.O.P. Voter Suppression Laws Get Stuck Down:
Thom: Is Congress stalking Greenpeace with Subpoenas?
Can a third-party candidate ever become President?
Jimmy Kimmel interviews Morgan Freeman narrating a Hillary Clinton campaign video.
Slate: Corey Lewandowski is a complete disaster on CNN.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
Colbert: Political week in review.
Young Turks: GOP loses it over Tim Kaine’s lapel pin.
Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.
Glass Ceiling Broken:
The actor that every politician needs at rallies.
Mental Floss: 39 facts about the middle ages.
How a city’s economy depends on airports.
Young Turks: Republicans go BONKERS over Bradley Cooper (Sniper) at DNC.
What FAUX News aired Instead of the speech by fallen Muslim soldier’s father.
White House: West Wing Week.
Kimmel: Trump and Clinton puppets.
The Drumpfsputin Affair:
Seth Meyers with Lenny Kravits on the Clintons.
Young Turks: Voter ID laws struck down.
Stephen: What’s the nicest thing you can say about your opposing party’s candidate.
How did the U.S. end up with a 2-party system?
https://youtu.be/u7JBXja7SAY
Young Turks: All cops walk in Freddie Gray case.
Lawrence O’Donnell: Capt. Khan’s parents remember their son
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
History will be made tonight, so talk about it….
6:02: Washington delegation has been raising hell all week
More WA delegates protest TPP and other causes on night of @HillaryClinton acceptance speech pic.twitter.com/U7Lt8dAOJH
— Jim Brunner (@Jim_Brunner) July 29, 2016
Tell me again how we need to keep violent people out of the US https://t.co/NARjdXMQI1
— Lee Rosenberg (@Lee_Rosenberg) July 29, 2016
It seems like a good idea for Ds to welcome Rs and conservatives who are willing to step up and admit the GOP nominee is a madman.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) July 29, 2016
Abdul-Jabbar: “I’m Michael Jordan and I’m with Hillary…I said that of course because I know Donald Trump couldn’t tell the difference"
— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) July 29, 2016
Read about Rev. William Barber, who just finished speaking at the #DemConvention: https://t.co/cUURDlTfFu https://t.co/rRTKFd5u0d
— POLITICO (@politico) July 29, 2016
Powerful speech by Captain Khan. Most scathing indictment of Trump.
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) July 29, 2016
Omigod, what a devastating critique of Trump from Khizr Khan, father of fallen Muslim veteran. #DemsInPhilly
— (((Goldy))) (@GoldyHA) July 29, 2016
6:28: Man…General Allen could be a voice-over actor for any general anywhere!
Comparing the two conventions, it's clear that Democrats are now the party of patriotic America, the future America, the real America
— Markos Moulitsas (@markos) July 29, 2016
7:30: Huh…Did you notice Hillary DIDN’T lightly grope her daughter?
7:39: “He has taken ” the GOP ” a long way, from ‘Morning in America’ to ‘Midnight in America’.”
She's never going to be as soaring an orator as BHO or as intimate as BC, but she's killing it, imo
— Clara Jeffery (@ClaraJeffery) July 29, 2016
"I accept your nomination for president of the United States!” —Hillary https://t.co/3Ffpf7W4Vz
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) July 29, 2016
Clinton: "Donald Trump says he wants to make America great again – well, he could start by actually making things in America again."
— Sabrina Siddiqui (@SabrinaSiddiqui) July 29, 2016
“Imagine him in the Oval Office…a man you can bait with a tweet is not a man you can trust with nuclear weapons."
— Mike Warren (@MichaelRWarren) July 29, 2016
by Darryl — ,
Looks like admitted lair and alleged campaign fraudster Tim “Biggest Lie of My Life” Eyman is going to get a close-n-personal tour of our criminal justice system:
Attorney General Bob Ferguson on Wednesday asked a Snohomish County Superior Court judge to hold Tim Eyman and his political committees in contempt for failing to turn over documents in as part of an investigation into the initiative promoter’s campaign finance practices.
Ferguson said he was also seeking a similar ruling from a Thurston County judge against signature gathering firm Citizen Solutions, saying that both Eyman and his committees have failed to meet a court-ordered deadline for disclosing the documents.
“Despite a subpoena and a court order, Tim Eyman continues to impede this investigation,” Ferguson said. “That’s unacceptable.”
Or…at least be fined $2000/day for every day he doesn’t turn over the subpoenaed documents.

I don’t know about you, but I’d settle for knocking a week or two off his sentence if he agreed to be frogmarched in his Darth Vader getup.

by Darryl — ,
Political conventions are stupid.
Mental Floss: 26 Things that Inspired Movies.
James Corden with Michelle Obama: Carpool Karaoke:
Young Turks: Koch brothers cut funding of disobedient Republicans.
Farron Cousins: Rep. Steve King goes full “Grand Wizard” on MSNBC.
Sam Waterson: Important convention history
The 2016 Drumpf Shit Show:
Jimmy Dore: Political jokes of the week.
Farron Cousins: Right wing voting laws getting killed in the courts.
Minute physics: Hitting the sun is hard.
White House: West Wing Week.
The party of Jebus meets a Muslim.
Young Turks are interrupted on their set by Alex Jones and Rodger Stone.
Young Turks: The Post-Alex debriefing.
Climate Change: 2016 is hottest year on record.
Blue on Black Violence:
Young Turks: KKKer David “Douchebag” Duke to run for Senate.
Stephen Colbert with Lewis Black.
The climate change ad that FAUX News didn’t want viewers to see.
John Oliver with some Endorsements.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
Remember way back in the early aughts when, Tim Eyman, tearfully confessed to being a liar in the “…biggest lie of my life”?
“I was in lie mode,” he said. “I became riddled with guilt. It was the biggest lie of my life and it was over the stupidest thing in the world. The biggest thing I’m guiltiest of is an enormous ego. Hubris.”
[…]Eyman emphasized that he had done nothing illegal.
“This is all fricking legal …but beyond stupid,” he said.
No…”stupid” isn’t the right word…it was another LIE. At least, the Washington state AG thought so. Eyman was prosecuted and settled, paying a $50,000 fine and was permanently enjoined from acting as a political committee treasurer.
Ten years later, Lyin’ Eyman was at it again:
PDC investigators say the expenses that were reported as paying for signatures, but in fact were payments to Eyman violate state disclosure laws. Payments to him violate laws against personal use, they added.
The multiple violations are so serious the commission can’t levy adequate penalties, and the commission should send the matter to the attorney general’s office to take the case to court, they said.
And today we learn that there are many more violations of campaign finance and disclosure laws:
The latest complaint deals with an Eyman-sponsored political action committee (PAC) — “Bring Back our $30 Car Tabs — Voters Want More Choices” that sponsored and aired 21 online videos that opposed 49 candidates for the Washington State Legislature.
The ads cost $45,318 and were apparently financed by $22,500 contributions from two wealthy supporters: Vancouver, Washington, developer Clyde Holland and Camas Investment CEO Kenneth Fisher.
According to a report by the Public Disclosure Commission, 10 of the 21 videos meet the statutory definition of “independent expenditures” under state law.
The state requires footprints on so-called “independent expenditure” ads, which often fill TV screens before election day with messages that are unremittingly nasty. By off-loading negative advertising on “independent” groups, candidates can make themselves appear to be running upbeat races.
According to the PDC, the 10 Eyman-sponsored videos did not include the disclaimer: “No candidate authorized this ad.” The videos did not identify a sponsor’s name, city or state. The videos incorrectly listed the required five leading contributors to the videos.
“Bring Back Our $30 Car Tabs — VWMC,” in its filing with the state, listed as its sole purpose support for a ballot initiative — not attacking legislators. (The initiative was subsequently scrubbed.) The Eyman PAC did not file an amended form to update its purpose to attack legislators.
The PDC is throwing the disclosure rule book at Eyman.
Tim “Lyin'” Eyman has spent more than a decade personally profiting by embezzling funds intended for initiatives and flaunting Washington’s finance and disclosure laws. Isn’t it about time he be taken off the street or at least out of the political arena?
I think a long stint behind bars will offer him new appreciation for the necessity of taxes….
by Darryl — ,
Stephen: Who let the Red Cross decide what’s cool and not cool?.
The President goes viral.
Jimmy Dore: John Boehner would have firehosed the Dem sit-in:
Can Texas actually secede from the U.S.?
Not Safe with Nikki Glaser: Obama’s moving on, and we should, too.
Maddow: Pentagon ends US military transgender ban.
Farron Cousins: Polls show Americans want action on gun control.
Thom: July 4th 1776…The first brexit.
White House: West Wing Week.
PsychoSuperMom: If men could get pregnant.
The 2016 G.O.P. Drumpf Enterprises Clown Show:
Mental Floss: 39 fun museum facts.
Stephen: “Lesser Pope-pologies”.
Sam Seder: Laura Ingraham suggests we should all wear adult diapers to avoid transgendered people.
Farron Cousins: Paul Ryan unveils his dangerously stupid Obamacare replacement plan.
Thom: Lying about science for politics is evil.
Young Turks: Republicans Waste more money investigating nonsense.
Minute Physics: Where do galaxies come from?
David Pakman: Does Congress really ban CDC from researching gun violence?
Stephen: Fun with presidential polls.
Mark Fiore: The What About X Committee.
Thom with Michael Mann: Can humanity survive climate change?
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Darryl — ,
Muslim meet.
Farron Cousins: House Republicans vote to keep dark money donors’ identities secret.
Maddow: Short handed Supreme Court crisis deepens.
The GOP Drumpf Clown Show:
Mental Floss: 41 facts about vegetables.
Mark Fiore: Paul Ryan’s Plan-O-Stuff
White House: West Wing Week.
Stephen: Why am I watching Congress on Periscope?
Bill Maher covers the conventions.
The Nightly Show: Oakland’s Police Chiefs.
Gunz in America:
Obama names Stonewall a national monument.
Is Google manipulating search results for Hillary?
Farron Cousins: Republican Governors are preventing you from getting a raise
Rubio’s Flippity-floppity-flippity-floppity on a Senate re-election run.
Young Turks: Affirmative action survives Supreme Court.
Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.
by Goldy — ,
1 Corinthians 7:2-9
Each man should have his own wife, and each woman should have her own husband because of sexual immorality. The husband should meet his wife’s sexual needs, and the wife should do the same for her husband. The wife doesn’t have authority over her own body, but the husband does. Likewise, the husband doesn’t have authority over his own body, but the wife does. Don’t refuse to meet each other’s needs unless you both agree for a short period of time to devote yourselves to prayer. Then come back together again so that Satan might not tempt you because of your lack of self-control. I’m saying this to give you permission; it’s not a command. I wish all people were like me, but each has a particular gift from God: one has this gift, and another has that one.I’m telling those who are single and widows that it’s good for them to stay single like me. But if they can’t control themselves, they should get married, because it’s better to marry than to burn with passion.
Discuss.
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