HorsesAss.Org

Search Results for: ’

Live Blogging the First Presidential Debate

by — ,

Okay…the debate is about to begin. Have at it in the comment threads. I’ll post my nuggets of wisdom from the folks at Drinking Liberally and from Twitter.

[6:05] Opening topic: reducing income inequality in a period of low unemployment.
Clinton: Invest, invest, invest.
Drumpf: CHINA! CHINA! CHINA!

Trump claims that U.S. doesn’t have the largest, most sophisticated manufacturing facilities in the world. Ummm…Mr. Trump, ever hear of Boeing’s plant in Everett? Largest in the world.

[6:13] Drumpf, “The U.S. doesn’t know what it is doing” in manufacturing. Unbelievable!

[6:14] Drumpf is starting to fall apart already, with his little aside to Clinton.

[6:15] Drumpf’s import tax bring to mind Bill Murray’s famous SNL lounge skit: “Trade Wars / If they had made wars / Let there be trade wars / ooohhh oh yeah.

[6:19] Again and again, Drumpf tells us what we “have to do” without any concrete proposals.

[6:20] Clinton successfully holds off Drumpf’s attempt at disruption.

[6:21] Hello? Moderators?

[6:26]: Drumpf completely LOST IT! “No wonder you have been fighting ISIS your entire life.” ISIS didn’t even exist when she last held a government position.

[6:33]: Drumpf has an audit conspiracy.

[6:39]: “We spent 6 trillion dollars in the middle east” and we didn’t even take all of their oil….

[6:40]: Clinton may have used a private email server, but at least she paid her IT subcontractors.

[6:43]: Drumpf has calmed down, but is having trouble focusing.

[6:44]: Drumpf things Hillary is afraid to say “law and order”. WTF?!?

[6:48]: Drumpf is rattling off endorsements. What’s next, poll numbers?

[6:50]: Donald Trump wants to take guns away…from dark-skinned people.

[6:52]: Clinton makes a passionate argument for justice reform. Trump’s response, “she won’t law and order!” and “stop and frisk!”

[7:00]: Dear @realDonaldTrump Obama produced the standard Hawaii birth certificate in 2008.

[7:12]: DJT uses “Cyber” incorrectly. Clearly new to the word. Norbert Weiner spins in his grave.

[7:15]:Drumpf blames Obama/Clinton for leaving Iraq. You know…the withdrawal that was set up by Bush’s failure to come to an agreement with Iraq.

[7:22]: At the end of a crazy, defensive tyrade, “I have better judgement than her.”

[7:24]: Trump is sniffling a lot. Is he well enough to be President?????????

[7:26]: Clinton’s “caviler attitude about nuclear weapons” segment was potent.

[7:27]: Holy shit. @realDonaldTrump understanding of defending other countries amounts to gangster movies.

[7:33]: Clinton’s strategy: say something clear. Let Drumpf babble.

[7:35]: No shit on Clinton’s statement on stamina. Look at her freaking schedule while SOS! Brutal travel and meeting schedule.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by — ,

Roll Call: Government shutdown looms.

Stephen with Michelle Obama: Imitating Barack.

Keith Olbermann interviews Press Sec. Josh Earnest on the debate and the stakes of the race: PART I and PART II.

Kimmel on presidential debate topics.

The 2016 Racist, Sexist, Homophobic, All-Around-Great-Hater Clown Show:

Adam Ruins Everything: Trophy hunting can be good for animals?

Samantha Bee: Chief Executive fear mongerer: PART I and PART II

Kimmel: Unnecessary Censorship—Obama Edition.

Stephen with Michelle Obama on political spouses.

Hillary Makes History:

Secret Service won’t let Stephen see FLOTUS.

Thom: Open source voting explained.

Samantha Bee: The week in HUH? Super delegate-lobbyists.

Susie Sampson: Picking between gays and Muslims.

Mel Brooks pranks Obama.

Thom: Here’s who’s being eliminated from the voter roles.

Mental Floss: 31 weird discontinued products.

John Oliver: The refugee crisis.

Sam Seder: OMG! Christie knew about Bridgegate.

This Week in Cops Killing Black People:

White House: West Wing Week.

Jimmy Dore: Reince Priebus worn out after months of turd-polishing:

Sam Seder: NC Rep. says Charlotte protesters “Hate White people because White people are successful & they’re not”.

Taco Truck Guy on typical Mexicans.

Bill Maher with a New Rule: Bring civility back to politics.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

HA Bible Study: Exodus 32:27-29

by — ,

Exodus 32:27-29
Then he said to them, “This is what the LORD, the God of Israel, says: ‘Each man strap a sword to his side. Go back and forth through the camp from one end to the other, each killing his brother and friend and neighbor.’” The Levites did as Moses commanded, and that day about three thousand of the people died. Then Moses said, “You have been set apart to the LORD today, for you were against your own sons and brothers, and he has blessed you this day.”

Discuss.

HA Bible Study Double Feature: Luke 19:29-34 and Exodus 20:15

by — ,

Luke 19:29-34
As he approached Bethphage and Bethany at the hill called the Mount of Olives, he sent two of his disciples, saying to them, “Go to the village ahead of you, and as you enter it, you will find a colt tied there, which no one has ever ridden. Untie it and bring it here. If anyone asks you, ‘Why are you untying it?’ say, ‘The Lord needs it.’”

Those who were sent ahead went and found it just as he had told them. As they were untying the colt, its owners asked them, “Why are you untying the colt?”

They replied, “The Lord needs it.”

Exodus 20:15
Thou shalt not steal.

Discuss.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by — ,

Larry Wilmore does the Late Show.

Stephen: Are Russian hackers targeting American voters.

Thom: Exposing the Koch’s environment corruption.

Stephen with Congressman John Lewis (who goes surfing).

The 2016 White Nationalist Party Campaign Drumpf Campaign:

Stephen: It’s finally time to cut off that Weiner.

Adam Ruins Everything: Why you don’t need 8 glasses of water a day.

Seth Meyers: A closer look at Clinton’s and Drumpf’s debate prep:
https://youtu.be/X_oVFoBH9YM

David Pakman: Overall, life is much better for most people under President Obama.

Farron Cousins: Sarah Palin’s head injury made her even more crazy.

The Flames in Maine Fall Mainly on LePage:

Seth Meyers: A closer look at extreme weather events and climate change.

Stephen: Scandals surrounding the Clinton Foundation.

Jimmy Dore: Political news of the week.

Weiner’s Wares:

Sam Seder: Shepard Smith goes rogue on FAUX—by casually NOT lying about voter suppression.

Farron Cousins: Surprise! Republican states are the real welfare queens.

Mental Floss: 25 parenting life hacks.

Sports Patriots:

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Stephen: Sarah Palin crashes and burns.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by — ,

Russ Feingold hits Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) on student loans.

Conan and Sen. Franken: Humor in politics.

Obama to Congress: Louisiana may need more funding.

Thom: Tribal rights & the Dakota access pipeline.

What the polls do to us.

Clinton Makes History:

Farron Cousins: Alt Right—Just another name for mainstream Republican.

The Other Washington episode 6.5: Paid sick leave.

Thom: The secret list of those who have voted twice.

Colbert: Real Tim Kaine reacts to fake Tim Kaine.

Run The Jewels: “Nobody Speak”.

White House: West Wing Week.

The 2016 GOP- White Nationalist- Drumpf-Fest:

Bassem Youssef: The ISIS Hunter.

David Pakman: The FAUX sex scandal explodes.

Young Turks: Gov. Paul LePage leaves homophobic meltdown voicemail.

America’s worst idea.

Pres. Obama celebrates 100 years of National Parks.

Thom: Voter suppression and the mathematical proof.

Young Turks: Andrea Tantaros, “Faux News a sex-fueled, Playboy mansion-like cult

Tim Kaine jams with Jon Batiste and Stay Human.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by — ,

Young Turks: Feds to phase out for-profit prisons.

Nightly Show: Super depressing deep dive into America’s opioid epidemic.

Jonathan Mann: Good use of polling, bad use of polling.

John Oliver: American Petroleum Institute.

July was the hottest month ever recorded.

Bassem Youssef: America First!

What is a digital passport?

The 2016 Breitbart-Brand White Nationalist Drumpf Show:

Mental Floss: 46 odd and surprising stats and figures.

Hillary ROAST!

Minute Physics: The Twins Paradox primer.

Sam Seder: Bill-O-the-Clueless-Clown suggests #BlackLivesMatter is like KKK.

Robots for President?

Bad Lip Reading The Democratic National Convention.

Eric Schwartz: Don’t Vote:

Liberal Viewer: Larry Wilmore suggests Drumpf & Hillary are different kinds of liars

Jon sends off Larry in style.

Susie Sampson gets Weiner-ed.

Bassem Youssef: How can Muslims act “normal”.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Poll Analysis: Hillary hits 100%

by — ,

Clinton
Trump
100.0% probability of winning
0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 337 electoral votes
Mean of 201 electoral votes


Electoral College Map

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Lousiana Maine Maryland Massachusettes Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Electoral College Map

Georgia Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Delaware Connecticut Florida Mississippi Alabama Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia D.C. Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

The Monte Carlo analysis of state head-to-head polls last week showed Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump in electoral votes by an average of 325 to 213, and with Clinton having a 99.7% probability of winning an election held then.

Since then, 24 new polls have been released in 13 states. Some states have multiple polls, for example, Florida with five and New Hampshire with three.

Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 99,999 times and Trump wins the single Electoral College outcome that was a tie. Clinton received (on average) 337 to Trump’s 201 electoral votes. The results suggest that, in an election held now, Clinton would have a near 100.0% probability of winning.

Here is how the race has evolved in some key states.

Florida gains five new polls that solidly favor Clinton (+3%, +6%, +1%, +5%, and +9%). The new polls move Florida from a 67.1% probability of a Clinton victory last week to a 98.2% probability now.

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16Florida

Georgia flips from light blue to light red. Of the seven current polls, Clinton leads in only two of polls. Last week Clinton only had a 68.6% probability of taking the state. That has now shrunk to a 24.2% probability.

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16Georgia

Maine gets one new poll that shows Clinton up by +10% and with 100% probability of taking the state. Unfortunately, the new poll does not provide congressional district results. The last poll that did that was from June, and showed Trump with a slight lead in one district. It would be great to get some polling in ME CDs.

New Hampshire gets three new polls (and one aging out). The oldest poll shows Trump with a +9% margin, but Clinton has the lead in the last four polls by +15%, +13%, +10%, and +9%. Clinton goes from a 38% probability of taking the state last week to a 99.9% probability this week.

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16New Hampshire

One new North Carolina poll pushes Clinton from a 50.1% probability of taking the state to a 90.8% probability. She leads in the most recent two of the three current polls.

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16North Carolina

Ohio loses one poll that aged out, and has shrunk Clinton’s chances from 81% to 65%. Clinton leads in three polls (+4%, +4%, +2%) and Trump leads in one (+3%). The result is a near toss-up

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16Ohio

South Carolina finally gets a current poll, but Trump is only up by +2% in the new poll. This small lead gives him a 72.6% probability of winning the state today.

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16South Carolina

In Virginia, two new polls come in and one old one ages out. Clinton leads in the most recent three polls by double digits with Trump leading (+4%) in the oldest poll. Clinton would almost certainly win Virginia in an election now.

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16Virginia

Washington state gets a current poll that gives Clinton a +19% lead. Needless to say, she approaches a 100% probability of winning the state right now.

Last week, the most recent Wisconsin poll was from Marquette University taken in mid-July. Clinton was up +4.1%. Marquette just released their August poll and Clinton now has a +14% lead over Trump. The results suggest she would take Wisconsin with a 99.7% probability today.

ClintonTrump16Jul16-16Aug16Wisconsin

The distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] shows all possible Electoral College outcomes:
[Read more…]

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by — ,

No cure for lobbying addiction.

Thom: The Good, the Bad & the Very Very Reboanticly Ugly!

Sen. Rubio (R-FL) Zika virus no excuse to get an abortion

Thom: Where are the Koch brothers?

White House: West Wing Week.

David Hawkings’ Whiteboard:Is August recess work or play?


Most hated candidates ever.

This Week’s Drumpf Blooper Reel:

Mark Fiore: Who’s on whose side?

Bill Maher: Future headlines.

Steve Kornacki: Hillary Clinton outreach to GOP makes left uneasy .

New Scientist: The brain’s waste removal system.

FAUX Fallout:

Mental Floss: Why are there 24 hours in a day?

Did Clinton lie about her emails?

Red State Update: Will Trump debate Clinton? Julian Assange & murdered DNC staffer!

BrideGate Lies:

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Thread!

by — ,

I’m going on vacation pretty soon. I plan to keep up the contingent of nonsense Open Threads, and then hopefully when I get back, to start posting more.

Anyway, do you have any recommendations for light summer reading? Beach read or airplane. I have this on hold from the library, but I’m not sure it’s going to arrive in time.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by — ,

Jimmy Dore: WA-7-CD progressive candidate Pramila Jayapal gets Bernie’s blessing.

Thom: Most disturbing climate change events we have seen yet.

The Devil and Stephen Colbert:

Jimmy Dore: The story (and meta-story) behind the Iran cash drop story.

The Drumpf Implosion:

Hillary gets psyched for the Olympics.

Jimmy Dore: Bill-O-the-Clown on the silver lining in slavery.

Stephen: Cartoon Hillary on her disappearance.

Thom: The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Seriously Ugly!

MinutePhysics: How long is a sun day?

Jimmy Dore: Political jokes of the week.

Roy Zimmerman: “Burn, Goody Clinton”:
https://youtu.be/Pfv6wOTPTGM

Young Turks: Kansas proves Republican policies don’t work.

G.O.P. Voter Suppression Laws Get Stuck Down:

Thom: Is Congress stalking Greenpeace with Subpoenas?

Can a third-party candidate ever become President?

Jimmy Kimmel interviews Morgan Freeman narrating a Hillary Clinton campaign video.

Slate: Corey Lewandowski is a complete disaster on CNN.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!

by — ,

Colbert: Political week in review.

Young Turks: GOP loses it over Tim Kaine’s lapel pin.

Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.

Glass Ceiling Broken:

The actor that every politician needs at rallies.

Mental Floss: 39 facts about the middle ages.

How a city’s economy depends on airports.

Young Turks: Republicans go BONKERS over Bradley Cooper (Sniper) at DNC.

What FAUX News aired Instead of the speech by fallen Muslim soldier’s father.

White House: West Wing Week.

Kimmel: Trump and Clinton puppets.

The Drumpfsputin Affair:

Seth Meyers with Lenny Kravits on the Clintons.

Young Turks: Voter ID laws struck down.

Stephen: What’s the nicest thing you can say about your opposing party’s candidate.

How did the U.S. end up with a 2-party system?
https://youtu.be/u7JBXja7SAY

Young Turks: All cops walk in Freddie Gray case.

Lawrence O’Donnell: Capt. Khan’s parents remember their son

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Open thread for Hillary’s nomination

by — ,

History will be made tonight, so talk about it….

6:02: Washington delegation has been raising hell all week

6:28: Man…General Allen could be a voice-over actor for any general anywhere!

7:30: Huh…Did you notice Hillary DIDN’T lightly grope her daughter?

7:39: “He has taken ” the GOP ” a long way, from ‘Morning in America’ to ‘Midnight in America’.”

Perhaps Eyman will tour the state’s criminal justice system

by — ,

Looks like admitted lair and alleged campaign fraudster Tim “Biggest Lie of My Life” Eyman is going to get a close-n-personal tour of our criminal justice system:

Attorney General Bob Ferguson on Wednesday asked a Snohomish County Superior Court judge to hold Tim Eyman and his political committees in contempt for failing to turn over documents in as part of an investigation into the initiative promoter’s campaign finance practices.

Ferguson said he was also seeking a similar ruling from a Thurston County judge against signature gathering firm Citizen Solutions, saying that both Eyman and his committees have failed to meet a court-ordered deadline for disclosing the documents.

“Despite a subpoena and a court order, Tim Eyman continues to impede this investigation,” Ferguson said. “That’s unacceptable.”

Or…at least be fined $2000/day for every day he doesn’t turn over the subpoenaed documents.

EymanSaber-769147

I don’t know about you, but I’d settle for knocking a week or two off his sentence if he agreed to be frogmarched in his Darth Vader getup.

EymanDarth

Can’t Bring Yourself to Type the Word “Ass”?

Eager to share our brilliant political commentary and blunt media criticism, but too genteel to link to horsesass.org? Well, good news, ladies: we also answer to HASeattle.com, because, you know, whatever. You're welcome!

Follow Goldy

I no longer use Twitter or Facebook because Nazis. But until BlueSky is bought and enshittified, you can still follow me at @goldy.horsesass.org

HA Commenting Policy

It may be hard to believe from the vile nature of the threads, but yes, we have a commenting policy. Comments containing libel, copyright violations, spam, blatant sock puppetry, and deliberate off-topic trolling are all strictly prohibited, and may be deleted on an entirely arbitrary, sporadic, and selective basis. And repeat offenders may be banned! This is my blog. Life isn’t fair.