 |
 |
I’m buried this week, so this report will be brief. Let me first mention that I usually send out Tweets from @hominidviews with each poll I add to the database, and include a graph of the recent polling for the state. I also announce new analyses there, and sometimes offer quick previews when I don’t have time to do a full analysis. So follow me at @hominidviews for these updates.
Last week Donald Trump had made small gains over Sec. Hillary Clinton. Plenty of new polls have come—about 35—and many of these polls were conducted during at least part of Clinton’s “bad week.” Not surprisingly, Trump makes gains.
After 100,000 simulated elections, Clinton wins 96,242 times and Trump wins 3,758 times (including the 702 ties). The previous analysis had Clinton winning almost 100% of the simulated elections. In an election held now, Clinton would have a 96.2% probability of winning and Trump would have a 3.8% probability of winning.
Clinton received (on average) 309 to Trump’s 229 electoral votes. This is substantially down from the 340 Clinton had last week, but still above the 270 threshold needed to win.
Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:
Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Clinton (full distribution here):
- 307 electoral votes with a 3.94% probability
- 313 electoral votes with a 3.76% probability
- 322 electoral votes with a 3.19% probability
- 316 electoral votes with a 3.18% probability
- 309 electoral votes with a 3.04% probability
- 298 electoral votes with a 2.45% probability
- 303 electoral votes with a 2.34% probability
- 319 electoral votes with a 2.16% probability
- 318 electoral votes with a 2.13% probability
- 301 electoral votes with a 2.06% probability
After 100,000 simulations:
- Clinton wins 96.2%, Trump wins 3.8%.
- Average (SE) EC votes for Clinton: 309.1 (20.6)
- Average (SE) EC votes for Trump: 228.9 (20.6)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Clinton: 310 (266, 351)
- Median (95% CI) EC votes for Trump: 228 (187, 272)
Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):
| Threshold | Safe | + Strong | + Leans | + Weak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe Clinton | 155 | |||
| Strong Clinton | 90 | 245 | ||
| Leans Clinton | 53 | 53 | 298 | |
| Weak Clinton | 24 | 24 | 24 | 322 |
| Weak Trump | 0 | 0 | 0 | 216 |
| Leans Trump | 48 | 48 | 216 | |
| Strong Trump | 114 | 168 | ||
| Safe Trump | 54 |
This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.
| 1 | 0 | EC | # | Total | % | % | Clinton | Trump | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 8 | Votes | polls | Votes | Clinton | Trump | % wins | % wins | |
| AL | 9 | 1* | 3690 | 36.7 | 63.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AK | 3 | 1* | 435 | 37.5 | 62.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| AZ | 11 | 6 | 4069 | 48.4 | 51.6 | 7.5 | 92.5 | ||
| AR | 6 | 1 | 516 | 33.7 | 66.3 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| CA | 55 | 2 | 3892 | 63.0 | 37.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| CO | 9 | 2 | 865 | 50.1 | 49.9 | 50.9 | 49.1 | ||
| CT | 7 | 1 | 847 | 58.8 | 41.2 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| DE | 3 | 1* | 529 | 56.7 | 43.3 | 98.5 | 1.5 | ||
| DC | 3 | 1* | 1131 | 76.5 | 23.5 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| FL | 29 | 8 | 5996 | 50.8 | 49.2 | 82.1 | 17.9 | ||
| GA | 16 | 4 | 2189 | 48.3 | 51.7 | 13.8 | 86.2 | ||
| HI | 4 | 1* | 801 | 61.9 | 38.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ID | 4 | 1 | 403 | 34.2 | 65.8 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| IL | 20 | 1 | 801 | 61.0 | 39.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| IN | 11 | 1 | 474 | 45.6 | 54.4 | 8.1 | 91.9 | ||
| IA | 6 | 3 | 1559 | 48.5 | 51.5 | 20.3 | 79.7 | ||
| KS | 6 | 1 | 498 | 43.2 | 56.8 | 2.0 | 98.0 | ||
| KY | 8 | 1* | 425 | 42.4 | 57.6 | 1.1 | 98.9 | ||
| LA | 8 | 1 | 520 | 46.5 | 53.5 | 13.1 | 86.9 | ||
| ME | 2 | 2 | 1266 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 96.8 | 3.2 | ||
| ME1 | 1 | 2 | 636 | 62.1 | 37.9 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| ME2 | 1 | 2 | 638 | 45.5 | 54.5 | 5.6 | 94.4 | ||
| MD | 10 | 1 | 590 | 68.6 | 31.4 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MA | 11 | 2 | 832 | 62.9 | 37.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| MI | 16 | 4 | 2307 | 53.2 | 46.8 | 98.5 | 1.5 | ||
| MN | 10 | 1* | 1139 | 56.1 | 43.9 | 99.8 | 0.2 | ||
| MS | 6 | 1* | 987 | 42.9 | 57.1 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| MO | 10 | 4 | 2846 | 45.4 | 54.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| MT | 3 | 1* | 1153 | 44.1 | 55.9 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| NE | 2 | 1* | 1093 | 42.5 | 57.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| NE1 | 1 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE2 | 1 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NE3 | 1 | 0* | (0) | (100) | |||||
| NV | 6 | 4 | 2006 | 50.5 | 49.5 | 63.3 | 36.7 | ||
| NH | 4 | 5 | 2712 | 53.3 | 46.7 | 99.4 | 0.6 | ||
| NJ | 14 | 1 | 715 | 52.0 | 48.0 | 78.5 | 21.5 | ||
| NM | 5 | 1 | 783 | 56.3 | 43.7 | 99.4 | 0.6 | ||
| NY | 29 | 1 | 690 | 60.4 | 39.6 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| NC | 15 | 8 | 4909 | 50.2 | 49.8 | 57.5 | 42.5 | ||
| ND | 3 | 1* | 1226 | 44.6 | 55.4 | 0.3 | 99.7 | ||
| OH | 18 | 7 | 4420 | 49.2 | 50.8 | 21.9 | 78.1 | ||
| OK | 7 | 1* | 244 | 35.2 | 64.8 | 0.1 | 99.9 | ||
| OR | 7 | 1 | 325 | 60.3 | 39.7 | 99.7 | 0.3 | ||
| PA | 20 | 6 | 3940 | 52.8 | 47.2 | 99.4 | 0.6 | ||
| RI | 4 | 1 | 678 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 68.9 | 31.1 | ||
| SC | 9 | 3 | 2410 | 43.4 | 56.6 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| SD | 3 | 1* | 657 | 40.9 | 59.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TN | 11 | 1* | 2191 | 40.5 | 59.5 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| TX | 38 | 2 | 906 | 45.6 | 54.4 | 2.8 | 97.2 | ||
| UT | 6 | 2 | 1022 | 38.1 | 61.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | ||
| VT | 3 | 1 | 439 | 64.9 | 35.1 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| VA | 13 | 4 | 2628 | 51.8 | 48.2 | 90.3 | 9.7 | ||
| WA | 12 | 1* | 335 | 64.2 | 35.8 | 100.0 | 0.0 | ||
| WV | 5 | 1 | 309 | 38.8 | 61.2 | 0.2 | 99.8 | ||
| WI | 10 | 3 | 1714 | 53.7 | 46.3 | 98.3 | 1.7 | ||
| WY | 3 | 1* | 690 | 29.6 | 70.4 | 0.0 | 100.0 |
* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.
The most recent analysis in this match-up can be found from this page.
Let’s assume that the far right is correct in that Hillary is ill. Let’s elect her, and, if they’re correct, the job will take a further toll on her health. Electing Hillary may be exactly the thing to do for the right’s belief to come to fruition.
Trump really has no chance, so I think it’s Hillary in November, regardless of what conservatives think/want.
Jill Stein and Gary Johnson won’t be in the upcoming presidential debate. Too bad – they offer a real choice versus the standard mediocrity of Hillary or Donald.
As much as every ex President other than the idiot Yale yell leader insists that nobody is fully prepared to serve as President, neither Johnson or Stein is any better prepared than Cheeto Jesus. Go ahead. You might as well go “full retard”.
First Stein and Johnson should be in the debate. The two major parties have their claws in the process of selecting who will be in the debate and the %15 percent requirement pretty much guarantees there will only be two candidates. This manipulation is not going to change the fact one or both of them are going to effect the outcome of the election. While neither are likely to garner three or more electoral votes one can never predict just what the folks in New Hampshire are going to do.
As the law suit makes it way through the courts maybe in future a third party candidate will be required to be at the debate. This is what happens in Europe. Of course they have meaningful limits on money in politics. While there are one, two or three major parties in every European country it’s rare a party or parties dominate in the way our two party system dominates. The parliamentary system also gives small parties an opportunity to actually be in the government as when a major party needs some help in getting a majority. Ok not our way of politics.
Stein and Johnson are going to get millions of votes in this election and are going to affect the outcome. Not to include their numbers in any predictions using polling at this point in the election is disingenuous, and part of the reason their poll numbers are not better. This is a total buy into a two party system and a belief that is the way it should be. A clear desire to perpetuate the current system underlies the unwillingness to include both in the prediction, and disenfranchises the millions of voters who will in fact vote for them. Whether as protest to the main candidates or because they truly support the candidate and believe they are the best choice.
It should be ok to vote for someone other than the blessed Republican or Democratic candidates and to say otherwise is in-American and repugnant.